Indianapolis (+7) @ Carolina (11-2-15)

[oldunclemark]

Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden on ESPN....

mid-50 and light rain that should ease up later in the game.

Over-under 46.5

Cam Newton (101 of 181 for 1,275 yards, 9 TDs and 7 INTs throws to tight end Greg Olsen (27 catches, 439 yards) a Ted Ginn (18 catches, 283 yards).

RB Jonothan Stewart has 103 carries for 423 yards

Carolina defense has not allowed more than 23 points in any game.

18 QB sacks and 9 interceptions..

Colts Andrew Luck (118 of 210, 1.398 yards) has 11 TDs and 9 INTs in 5 games

RB Frank Gore has 98 carries for 446 yards..

TY Hilton has 37 catches for 606 yardfs. Donte Moncrief has 34 grabs for 381 yards and 5 TDs..

.Colts have 4 receivers with 20 catches or more but the defense has allowed 1542 first downs...over 21 a game.

Oddly..Colts are 1-3 at home and 2-1 on the road...Carolina's home wins are 24-17, 27-22 and 27-16.

Little justifies a 7-point spread here....Carolina is a fairly conservative and all their games have been close into the second half.

If you can get 7 points, take the Colts

[ricker182]

Wow. I'd take the Colts all day at 7.

[oldunclemark]

The Colts covered against NE...remember that Plus-10?

[2006Coltsbestever]

I honestly thought the spread would be more than 7 because they are at home and undefeated and we are playing inconsistent. I said it would 8 the other day so I was close. I will stick with 19-17 Colts, this pick is more with my heart than my brain but having said that if Andrew has a game where he doesn't have costly turnovers and we can just keep it close we can win. Establish a running game, control TimeofPoss, and force Cam to make 1 or 2 costly mistakes. He did have 3 INT's last week although 2 weren't really his fault. My Denver pick over on the other Thread against GB, I really believe Denver will win for sure regarding that otherwise I wouldn't of bet Jared.

[oldunclemark]

The Colts with Andrew Luck seem really good at back-door covers..

.where a team falls behind more than the spread but covers with a late TD...even if they dont win outright

[2006Coltsbestever]

As bad as it seems Andrew has played, surprisingly Andrew's and Cams stats are very similar. To hear people talk, Cam should be in the MVP race and Luck is playing bad right now. Luck 11/9, Cam 9/7 = TD/INT's and both are 56% on completions. Luck has more Yards Passing and has missed 2 games as well. That shows you how high the media has set his bar.

[JWF]

As bad as it seems Andrew has played, surprisingly Andrew's and Cams stats are very similar. To hear people talk, Cam should be in the MVP race and Luck is playing bad right now. Luck 11/9, Cam 9/7 = TD/INT's and both are 56% on completions. Luck has more Yards Passing and has missed 2 games as well. That shows you how high the media has set his bar.

I guess the thought is Newton doesn't have the weapons Luck does. I think the flip side to that argument is that Newton has a much better defense, better Oline and the Panthers utilize ball control much more than the Colts.

I think the reality is probably somewhere in the middle.

[krunk]

As I said before, this is a winnable game for us. If we can just stay away from the turnovers and penalties we should win.

[jvan1973]

As I said before, this is a winnable game for us. If we can just stay away from the turnovers and penalties we should win.

I think we could be 7-0 without the penalties and turnovers.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I think we could be 7-0 without the penalties and turnovers.

I think so too, at least 6-1 but even in the Patriots game that silly fake punt cost us dearly. That is basically a Turnover. It started on opening day, Andrew hits Allen on a 30 yard bomb down to the Bills 20 and it's called back and then it killed our momentum.

[krunk]

I think we could be 7-0 without the penalties and turnovers.

It's possible but I still have concern about our lack of ability to establish and finish drives. If we take away the penalties and turn over its a big step in the right direction certainly. I want to see us establish drives down the field that end in points like the Houston game, or first half New England. That's the real Colts Offense we were expecting. That's what I expect vs Carolina. Execution, execution baby!

[ColtRider]

I think we could be 7-0 without the penalties and turnovers.

Yes sir. Every single game so far has been winnable without the mistakes. And that includes Luck's downgraded play as well. We're entering the jugular of the schedule as far as contenders are concerned. Carolina, Denver, Atlanta, (Tampa Bay), Pittsburgh, then later on with Miami. Make the push now. Wouldn't want to win the AFC South @ 8-8 or less. Every game in post season is on the road then, assuming we do win the division.

[ColtRider]

As I said before, this is a winnable game for us. If we can just stay away from the turnovers and penalties we should win.

Agreed. Sure hope that turns out to be the case, my man.

[Jules]

I have very little opinion on this game that is concrete.

 

If we are going to upset a few of the better teams I think it's going to be teams who are not scoring machines like Carolina......but then again vs. our defense we can make any team possibly look like they have the best offense around.

 

I won't be shocked if we lose badly or even win this game.   A bit of a mystery game to me right now. Losing 3 in a row is hard to imagine........somewhere in this team "maybe" there is some of that "grit" Pagano speaks of.

 

I would not touch this game in a bet actually.

[JPFolks]

I think we win this one outright, but +7 sure makes it tempting to bet, but I don't so I'll just watch and hope the real Colts show up.  We really could have been 7-1 heading to the Denver game which I think we can also win.  I recall Peyton taking a team with this sort of record and sweeping the final 9 games to go 12-4 and get a high seed... what year was that? 

[oldunclemark]

The weather is a worry because we have to throw the ball..Carolina has good corners but we've got a whole variety

of receivers..they haven't seen good QB with so many catchers..

But if it rains all night and the game bogs down..they are a very physical team in the liens and we arent

[2006Coltsbestever]

Jay Glazer just reported Andrew Luck has been playing with multiple fractured ribs. See I think this happened in Buffalo.

[oldunclemark]

Jay Glazer just reported Andrew Luck has been playing with multiple fractured ribs. See I think this happened in Buffalo.

I agree..and I think you and I talked about that. It would explain his struggles throwing.

We badly need to get to the bye week

[2006Coltsbestever]

I agree..and I think you and I talked about that. It would explain his struggles throwing.

We badly need to get to the bye week

Yeah we both thought he got some kind of injury in that Buffalo game. I wonder how Jay found out about this? He is a great source too so he is probably accurate.

[krunk]

Carolina will probably be fairly conservative on the O and play sound defense. People are starting to realize you don't have to do a whole bunch against the Colts to win because the Colts beat themselves. If we can just correct SINS we will pulll out the W.

[PeterBowman]

Carolina will probably be fairly conservative on the O and play sound defense. People are starting to realize you don't have to do a whole bunch against the Colts to win because the Colts beat themselves. If we can just correct SINS we will pulll out the W.

if they quit beating themselves they can beat anyone.

[chad72]

I think we win this one outright, but +7 sure makes it tempting to bet, but I don't so I'll just watch and hope the real Colts show up.  We really could have been 7-1 heading to the Denver game which I think we can also win.  I recall Peyton taking a team with this sort of record and sweeping the final 9 games to go 12-4 and get a high seed... what year was that? 

 

That was 2008, where we lost in the wild card round as a #5 seed to the #4 seed Chargers, one-and-done vs Sproles and Scifres, the punter that had the game of his life.

[ThaCaliColt]

That was 2008, where we lost in the wild card round as a #5 seed to the #4 seed Chargers, one-and-done vs Sproles and Scifres, the punter that had the game of his life.

I'll never forget '05 as long as I live. I can still remember feeling depressed for days after that Steeler game.

[JPFolks]

That was 2008, where we lost in the wild card round as a #5 seed to the #4 seed Chargers, one-and-done vs Sproles and Scifres, the punter that had the game of his life.

You know that was one of the most frustrating losses I ever saw.  If I recall, Ladanian Tomlinson AND Rivers were BOTH injured and out of that game and you are correct, SPROLES, who ALWAYS had our number, and that dang punter combined to take us out... I feel the stress of that game bubbling up.  Funny, because the game during the luck era that most disturbs me still is our inexplicable loss to San Diego at their place where it seemed like our offense was in the twilight zone and literally couldn't do anything for what seemed like no reason at all.  Man I don't like San Diego.  And Sproles is still making people's lives a nightmare even as he ages.   He's one of the most dangerous players in this generation.  

[oldunclemark]

Its going to rain most of the game

[NewColtsFan]

Two third down plays....

 

One,  Dwayne Allen is wide open, and Luck misses him to the right by 3 feet.

 

On another,  3rd and 7,   we try a deep crossing pattern to Andre Johnson.      My question?     Why?

 

Feel free to just get the first down.     Keep a sustained drive alive.     Get first downs.     Establish a rhythm.     We don't need big chunk plays right now.    We need a long clock eating drive.     Keep the defense off the field for a few minutes.     Give them some rest.     Get the offense into a rhythm.      

 

This is infuriating!       Stop over-thinking this!         

[NewColtsFan]

And I'd prefer not seeing Jack Mewhort pulling to block on a running play on a soaking wet, sloppy field.

 

Indoors?    Fine.     Outdoors when the field is dry?     Fine.

 

But on a sloppy field?     No.   The play gets stuffed as Mewhort can't move laterally well on a field like this.

 

Uuuuggghh!!

[Myles]

It really wasn't that great of keyboard playing

[NewColtsFan]

Allen got mugged on the pass into the EZ.     Royally mugged.

 

Should have been Colts ball at the Carolina 1,  first and goal!

 

But it's 10-6.      The Colts are in this game.

 

And it should be said that the defense has been playing GREAT!!     Flat out great.

 

They're playing hard and with heart!     Can't ask for more tonight.

[Myles]

I'm sick of the double standard talk with Cam.

 

They go over how great he is  with his rushing yards and TD's, then they talk about how worried they are that he might get hurt because he rushes too much.  Can't have it both ways.

[Myles]

Allen got mugged on the pass into the EZ.     Royally mugged.

 

Should have been Colts ball at the Carolina 1,  first and goal!

 

But it's 10-6.      The Colts are in this game.

 

And it should be said that the defense has been playing GREAT!!     Flat out great.

 

They're playing hard and with heart!     Can't ask for more tonight.

I agree with all this.  Nice play by the defense so far.

[chad72]

Panthers are a very one dimensional team that rely on turnovers and running game to get production. We can handle them, come on guys.

All we need to do the rest of the game at 6-10 is to play smart.

[Myles]

Need more Gore.

[chad72]

Run north south, not east west

[chad72]

QB sneak??? On 3rd and 1???

[Myles]

2 time outs and 53 seconds.    C'mon Colts get a FG out of this.

[Myles]

Ha ha, just realized I'm watching this off of the DVR.   I've been 15 minutes late on every post.

[18Manning]

Fiiiiiiiiiiig Newton!

[18Manning]

Typically, I like Gruden's commentary during games. For some reason, tonight, he's more annoying. There are so many things he will say "he lowers his shoulder and powers through" (something like that). Replay comes up and his comment isn't even close.

[Slick37]

Just wish they would quit talking about lucks bad play because he's hurt!! Unless he has a brain injury he's just playing flat out bad!! Might be time to sit him down for awhile. Sure you can try to let him play out of it but at this point that hole is a bottomless pit