What To Do With The First Overall Pick [Mega-merge]

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

I disagree with that one, all signs show it was BP who was in love with Luck... i cant wait to see the senior bowl and up coming combine and pro days... i personally believe RGIII will be drafted by the colts for the simple fact that he has waaay more upside and brings value with him if the colts trade down.

No the Colts will either trade the pick or draft Luck. They may draft RG111 but it won't be at #1. I disagree with you on Luck. He is very good & composed honestly he plays alot like Peyton. The Colts ARE NOT AS BAD AS THERE RECORD INDICATES & I think we will take Luck. If we trade the pick I would be alright with that as well. I think it all depends on if Peyton is healthy or not. Honestly if he is healthy if we get ENOUGH for the pick like say 2 #1's this year a 2 this year & a 1 next year or a 1&2 this year & 1&2 next year & draft a young QB with some promise lower in the draft. Unless we get alot of high Quality picks to me it is not worth it. If Peyton is not healthy draft Luck & lets get on with it.

[Restored]

I disagree with that one, all signs show it was BP who was in love with Luck... i cant wait to see the senior bowl and up coming combine and pro days... i personally believe RGIII will be drafted by the colts for the simple fact that he has waaay more upside and brings value with him if the colts trade down.

How does RG3 have more upside? Scrambling QB's don't last in this league.

Also I don't know if you caught that Irsay said Tom Telsco, who is acting GM right now i'd assume, was in Arizona to watch the Stanford-OKS game. If we all of a sudden lost interest in Luck because Polian was gone, why would he be at that game to scount Luck, who played very well I might add.

What you don't understand is that teams over the course of history build the same way. In history, the Colts have built their teams around the QB position (Unitas, Harbaugh, Manning) and soon Luck. Manning emulated Unitas and Luck emulates Manning. They'll take him.

[BmoreColt]

Some facts to consider

If Manning is paid the option bonus:

• He is likely a Colt for the bare minimum of two years
  
  • Because trading him after 2012, would create a 28 million cap hit paired with Luck's approximately 5 million cap hit, and the 500k that a young Back up making the minimum would likely earn. which would tie up approximately 28% of the salary cap in the QB position
    
  • Trading him after 2013 would create a 19 million cap hit, paired with Luck's approximate 6 million hit and a young QB would tie up approxmately 21% of the salary cap in the QB position. There is a chance that the salary cap would see a fairly big increase in the 2014 season which could lower the % tied to the QB position based on the new TV deals.
    
  • After 2014, trading Manning, his dead cap space would be 9.6 million, Luck would have around a 7 million cap hit, and a low dollar young QB would have them at around 14% of the cap
    

With that said, if he receives the option bonus, he's a Colt for the very least 2 more years, and more than likely 3 years.

Now that turns to the 28 million gamble:

• We cut ties to Manning, move on with a combination of Luck, Orlovsky, QB3, or Luck, a true vet Back up, and QB3.
  
• Unless he's 95%+ healthy I do not see the option bonus being paid, because if he's forced to retire, the figures in the previous section are coming back into play and that will cause salary cap issues. BIG ISSUES.
  

Actual dollars

• Look at the players we currently have needing deals. Wayne, Mathis, Garcon, Saturday, Diem, Gonzalez, etc.
  
  • Wayne will likely want more $ than he's truly worth
    
  • Mathis & Garcon will likely demand a pretty hefty bonus
    
  • Saturday & Diem & Wayne would likely be signing their final contracts.
    

All of this takes real money.

Considering that in 2011 we paid out 31+ million to Manning & the quarterbacks alone.

Consider that in 2012, if we pay Manning his option bonus, draft & sign Luck, + their base salaries that will be an additional 51 million to just the quarterback position

So in 2 years we would have paid out 82 million to quarterbacks, and 26 million of that didn't see the field in 2011, and 15 million of that likely won't play much in 2012.

That's an awful lot of money and with the needs of this team, it's hard to say that is an efficient use of actual dollars.

Football wise it makes all the sense in the world to keep Manning and have Luck sit for 3 years or so. Financially it doesn't make much sense at all.

It makes football sense that if Manning is healthy it can also make sense to explore trading the pick for a package and stocking positions of need and addressing the QB position at some point down the road.

It also makes football sense that 10-15 years of Luck is more than 3-5 years of Manning, and declining the option bonus can be a good decision whether he's healthy or not.

The next 3 months aren't going to be fun.

You are my go to Capologist! We should have coordinated efforts for this post so I had all those great numbers!

[BlueStallion]

Clear as mud!

I'm just delighted the team gets to face this enviable dilemma. One franchise QB or two? It's an embarrassment of riches. Whichever way they decide to go, the Colts will come out ahead. What a terrific conundrum. How many other teams wish they had this problem? Some teams have not had a single franchise QB in the past decade, and they're still waiting.

Have pity on us poor Colts fans.

[ConBro]

[Fx Stryker]

How are you so sure this team cannot play with a rookie QB? Or Andrew Luck for that matter? Putting Manning behind center next year doesn't make the Colts a SB contender right away. There are a lot of other holes that need to be addressed and could be better addressed rather than spending 35Million on a QB.

Well if we do keep both, I want you to be the avid fan of putting Luck in over Manning. Seems you feel Manning has no use. So when we start winning again, with Manning, remember you wanted Luck instead.

[Fx Stryker]

double post/

[Restored]

Short and sweet......give Peyton what he's needed for years....a complete team of talented offensive and defensive players through the draft and trades.

You say that like its so simple. We can use the picks we have in 2-6 to get plenty of talent with the RIGHT talent evaluators not named Polian.

Trade the #1 pick to set us up for the next two drafts. Select a promising QB (2nd-3rd round) for a fraction of the price of Luck and ween him into the pro game.

And end up with what? Another Orlovosky or Painter because we "got him for a bargain"? You don't seem to understand that the QB position is the toughest position to have over-the-top talent in. Look at the Jets and Ravens. They both got their starting QB's in the first round and both are mediocre at best right now. To me, you can't pass up on a talent like Luck when the NFL is progressing even more towards a QB-drivenleague.

All this is predicated upon Manning being unquestioned in his full recovery. If there is any question to his health....scratch all of the above, draft Luck and hope for the best.

Agree but if Manning is healthy, you still take Luck.

PS: You really should follow my posts closely. I was voted coolest guy on the internet 3 years in a row..

PSS: I can tell LOL

[GoGoColts]

This all kind of depends on Peyton's health. We definately don't want to trade the pick if Peyton is done. It's the kind of thing that will have to be decided much closer to the draft.

[ConBro]

This all kind of depends on Peyton's health. We definately don't want to trade the pick if Peyton is done. It's the kind of thing that will have to be decided much closer to the draft.

March 8th is gonna be a day to remember for this franchise... that's when we know the situation for sure.

[WSO]

Well if we do keep both, I want you to be the avid fan of putting Luck in over Manning. Seems you feel Manning has no use. So when we start winning again, with Manning, remember you wanted Luck instead.

Because I am not a 'Peyton Manning' fan. I am an Indanapolis Colts fan. I want the Colts to do what is best for their franchise and spending 35Million dollars on an aging QB with 3 neck surgeries who is STILL not 100% healthy does not make sense to me as a fan. Taking a young QB who is a great prospect and can be a franchise QB for 10 or 15 years makes sense to me.

Now if Manning is somehow able to restructure and come play at a high level for a couple seasons or so WITH luck sitting behind him that's fine with me. I would have absolutely no problem. The thing is, I haven't heard anything about restructuring or if Manning will or even be able to.

[Fx Stryker]

Because I am not a 'Peyton Manning' fan. I am an Indanapolis Colts fan. I want the Colts to do what is best for their franchise and spending 35Million dollars on an aging QB with 3 neck surgeries who is STILL not 100% healthy does not make sense to me as a fan. Taking a young QB who is a great prospect and can be a franchise QB for 10 or 15 years makes sense to me.

Now if Manning is somehow able to restructure and come play at a high level for a couple seasons or so WITH luck sitting behind him that's fine with me. I would have absolutely no problem. The thing is, I haven't heard anything about restructuring or if Manning will or even be able to.

I'm not a Manning only fan either, but I believe that what is best for the Colts is to gamble with a proven player then gamble with a non-proven player.

[JMichael557]

If Luck is worth 5 picks then that is why you do not trade him. You would not want to give up a player of that value.

[ConBro]

If Luck is worth 5 picks then that is why you do not trade him. You would not want to give up a player of that value.

EXACTLY.

[FairleySuhper]

A USC QB? No thanks. Luck is the guy--trading him would be sub-m0000ronic

[KyFan18]

If Luck is worth 5 picks then that is why you do not trade him. You would not want to give up a player of that value.

Because we only THINK he's worth five picks. It's all speculation as to what a college player is worth. By taking the five players, you put your eggs in different baskets, so to speak.

[KyFan18]

A USC QB? No thanks. Luck is the guy--trading him would be

Why do you care?

[jedi.creech]

EXACTLY.

Cause Luck is the Golden God he himself is going to be the leader of the world... Not all men can fill the shoes of 5 men, but Luck can all Hail Luck.... All Hail Luck...

[BmoreColt]

A USC QB? No thanks. Luck is the guy--trading him would not be sensible.

You just posted a thread in here that said, Manning and Luck cannot co-exist, now you are saying it is not sensible to trade Luck?

[That Guy]

You just posted a thread in here that said, Manning and Luck cannot co-exist, now you are saying it is not sensible to trade Luck?

He's a Lions fan. He has no loyalty to Manning. It's the smart business decision to cut Peyton before the bonus kicks in.

[Peyton and Eli fan]

You just posted a thread in here that said, Manning and Luck cannot co-exist, now you are saying it is not sensible to trade Luck?

Obviously, he wants to dump manning

[LUVTHESHOE]

I believe if the Colts are smart they will go ahead and trade the number one pick to the highest bidder. If it's worth the 5 picks that everyone is saying which is probably correct I mean look what atlanta gave up for Julio Jones then do it. We take those picks and reload our team and hope Peyton can go next year. If he can't sign a veteran to stand in like an Orton (I'm not saying he is our savior or anything like that) then draft a QB next season (BARKLEY). Or invest one of our picks this year that we get through the trade for a QB. I'm just saying if Irsay wants to ride the Manning train and I think all real and loyal Colts fans would love to see 18 suit up and make another go at it then we trade the pick and not worry about all the trouble of having two QBs or cutting Manning. BUT this all hinges on if Manning neck is healthy and he is a 100% ready to go. If not lets draft Luck. What do you guys think?

How are we guaranteed Barkley, by sucking again next year?I'll pass.

[Truckin Sanders]

I haven't heard anyone talk about it but when Luck was asked this very question following the bowl game he said all the right things but his face and body language told a very different story. He didn't look at all happy with the prospect of sitting behind anyone.

He just lost the final game of his college career where he played out of his mind you could have told him Megan Fox was waiting for him naked and he would have been salty still.

[BmoreColt]

He's a Lions fan. He has no loyalty to Manning. It's the smart business decision to cut Peyton before the bonus kicks in.

As our Capologist FireJimCaldwell has posted, the Colts stand to save $6 Million if Manning is cut. Not much of savings..

[Balzer40]

How are we guaranteed Barkley, by sucking again next year?I'll pass.

This is what people just don't get, they need to ask Miami, or Denver how long it takes to replace a legend. There is a unique opportunity for the Colts this season and they will not just trade it away. Its flat out not going to happen.

[FairleySuhper]

You just posted a thread in here that said, Manning and Luck cannot co-exist, now you are saying it is not sensible to trade Luck?

Mod edit, Tesla. They block out the word m_o_r_o_n apparently.

[BmoreColt]

How are we guaranteed Barkley, by sucking again next year?I'll pass.

Because if they trade Luck to Cleveland, chances are the Colts will have a top 5-10 draft pick next year. Rookie QB on Cleveland, facing Cincy, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh six times a year. That's at least 5 loses.. if not six so theres 10-6 at best, and lets say the split 10 games and go 5-5 thats a 5-11 team almost what they are this year. Which means another early pick. Barkley could fall below #1 or the Colts have a top 5-10 pick and there hopefully 32nd pick to trade up for Barkley.

[That Guy]

As our Capologist FireJimCaldwell has posted, the Colts stand to save $6 Million if Manning is cut. Not much of savings..

What would the 2013 savings be?

[BmoreColt]

Mod edit, Tesla. They block out the word m_o_r_o_n apparently.

You are luck I think Detroit has alot of talent on their roster otherwise I would come down really hard on you CHUMP. Don't you have a playoff game to worry about losing?

[BmoreColt]

What would the 2013 savings be?

Check out my thread "I am going to clear this up" FireJimCaldwell broke it down every year!

[That Guy]

Check out my thread "I am going to clear this up" FireJimCaldwell broke it down every year!

I'm pretty sure he (FireJimCaldwell) is talking about trading him after we pick up the option bonus. If we decline the option bonus, there should be no CAP hit. That is only the impression I have been given by the media, though.

[BmoreColt]

I'm pretty sure he (FireJimCaldwell) is talking about trading him after we pick up the option bonus. If we decline the option bonus, there should be no CAP hit. That is only the impression I have been given by the media, though.

I am sure "he" made it pretty clear Manning cannot be traded in his analysis..

[21isSuperman]

There is nothing wrong with sitting, especially when it's behind a guy like Peyton Manning. Sitting and learning from him will only help Luck. You have a chance to learn from one of the best people to ever do what you do, I would take that chance and run with it

[That Guy]

I am sure "he" made it pretty clear Manning cannot be traded in his analysis..

"traded" yes

Not picking up the option bonus, should sever all obligations we owe to Manning.

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

Cause Luck is the Golden God he himself is going to be the leader of the world... Not all men can fill the shoes of 5 men, but Luck can all Hail Luck.... All Hail Luck...

LOL :number1:

[Superman]

Because we only THINK he's worth five picks. It's all speculation as to what a college player is worth. By taking the five players, you put your eggs in different baskets, so to speak.

Based on the haul the Browns got for the Julio Jones pick last year, it would stand to reason that the #1 pick in a draft with a player that's been highly coveted for two years now would be worth even more than what Atlanta gave up. I wouldn't be surprised if it was three firsts, two seconds, and two protected thirds, or something like that.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I'm pretty sure he (FireJimCaldwell) is talking about trading him after we pick up the option bonus. If we decline the option bonus, there should be no CAP hit. That is only the impression I have been given by the media, though.

If we decline the option there is a 10.6 million cap hit for Manning in 2012.

[ACollie17]

It's going to be an interesting few months. We all know it here, it has been proven in past years and especially this year. Peyton makes a team at least an immediate playoff contender. But his health is the main thing. If he's healthy though, you can't bail on him.

That being said, I still say draft Luck.

One thing I would want is for Jim Irsay to go to Peyton and ask him to restructure his contract. Irsay is all about making him the highest paid QB in the league, but let's face it, for this to work I think Peyton's going to have to take a little less money. As I said, draft Luck and work out the cap room.

I also don't see why Andrew Luck wouldn't want to learn from Peyton. You have a chance to learn from the smartest guy in the NFL. Take it

And here's another thought. What if something happens to Peyton mid season? Who do you turn to? Orlovsky? No, wait, there's the prodigy waiting in the wings to take over. Peyton is coming off 3 neck surgeries. If he's possibly not the same or gets hurt again, you have a fallback in Luck until he (hopefully) sticks around to develop for the future.

[Tony Sullivan]

Trade it for picks and make them pay.