The CBF Report: Udated, now also using Wells report data!

[ColtsBlueFL]

Why I (and maybe other fans) still feel there is something wrong with DeflateGate.  Long!!

 

Ideal Gas Law – applied (I do ALL my own work here, nothing taken from reports except gauge pressures)

** Appended data taken from the Wells report!! **

 

Conditions: Assumed Indoor temp 75 degrees F,

Outdoor temp 52 F (between 7:00 and 8:00 pm) Barometric pressure 29.75 inHg (Fact, pic below)

That gives us  temps of 297 Kelvin indoors and  284 Kelvin outdoors, and ambient air pressure of 14.6 PSI

PV = nRT   =   P = (nRT) / V       so -  nR/V  = K    final simplified -     P=KT   where T is in Kelvin  and K is constant

 T is 297 – 284 =  13 degrees Kelvin.      Now -   13 / 297 =  4.4%  is our  variation is the target.  Thus no football should appreciably drop more than close to that percentage.  For a 75 F warm 12.5 PSI ball, that would be 11.3 PSI when in 52 F cold @ 29.75 inHg.

 

Now let’s do some calculations of our own based upon ball gauge readings from Wells report.  But first, we will make sure WE do not make the Mistake others have made in original tests and calculations (absolute pressure versus Gauge pressure).  To do this right you add the pressure of (all) the balls to the atmospheric pressure at that time, both indoor and outdoor gauge pressures, and solve from there.  Examples from Wells report; Patriots balls using lower scale gauge-  pressure drop % shown:

 

12.5 + 14.6 = 27.1 PSI.  This is our Patriot indoor pressure standard.

 

10.5 + 14.6 = 25.1 PSI    27.1-25.1 = 2 PSI drop     2.0/27.1 = 7.4%

10.7 + 14.6 = 25.3     1.8 PSI drop        1.8/27.1 = 6.6%

10.85 + 14.6 = 25.45   1.65 PSI drop  1.55/27.1 = 6.1%

10.9 + 14.6 = 25.5  = 1.6         1.6/27 = 5.9%

10.95 = 5.7% , 11.1  =  5.2%  (x2),  11.15 =  5%

11.50 = 3.7% ,  11.60   3.3%  finally 11.85 = 2.4%

 

 

 

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Updated numbers using conditions in Wells report-

 

Conditions: pre game Indoor temp 67 degrees F (shower floor area officials locker room) pressures set/verified

Halftime temp :  71 F officials area (balls re-measured)

 

Note: if 71 F is used pre game and at halftime and 48 outside, it matches my results above (75F and 52 F) and are unchanged!! 

 

Outdoor temp 48 F   Barometric pressure 29.75 inHg

That gives us  temps of 293 Kelvin indoors and  282 Kelvin outdoors, and ambient air pressure of 14.6 PSI

Now -   11 / 293 =  3.75%  is our  variation is the new target.  Thus no football should appreciably drop more than close to that percentage.  For a 67 F warm 12.5 PSI ball, that would be a minimum 11.5  PSI when in 48 F cold @ 29.75 inHg for a period of time.

 

So using the new data I now calculate that 8 of the 11 balls failed to meet the ideal gas law.  ***

With the other gauge, I find 3 (and 5 officially below 11.48 PSI,  but 2 of those quite close) that fails the IGL test.

 

So 28.1 – 26.75 =  1.35.   1.35/28.1 = 4.8%  drop!!  That's worst case!!

 

That is notably above the 3.75 % target, and fails if using higher (logo) reading gauge. So 1 out of 8 Colts balls fail, at the maximum.

 

Now I make a case for Walt Anderson having used the first gauge (lower reading non-logo) in pregame testing here:

 

**  As for gauge used, However, both were later compared to a master calibrated gauge, and the lower reading non-logo gauge closely matched it, it is easy to accept that the Pats balls did almost all come in at 12.5 (where Jastremski sets them), and Colts balls at around 13.0 PSI (where Sullivan is on record as having set them) matching the non logo and master calibrated gauge.

 

To me, with 3 gauges matching the master gauge (Colts, Pats, non logo gauge that Walt had), and the other one being way off (the logo gauge) from those 3, I deduce Walt Anderson had used the non logo gauge in pregame inspection/verification, that lower reading one that matched the master and confirmed the Colts balls were at 12.8-13.1 PSI  and 10-12 Pats balls were at 12.5. PSI, and two needed a bit more air in them to meet the 12.5 requirement. **

 

(In essence, I find it too difficult to believe the Colts Gauge, Pats gauge, and the higher reading Wilson Logo gauge matched, yet all 3 failed to match the master calibrated gauge. The scenario I set out is far more probable and reasonable, IME)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

 

 

So I calculate that 7 of the 11 balls failed to meet the ideal gas law.  Looking at the pressures on the higher scale gauge, there are still 2 balls that fail (10.9, 11.0, and an 11.2 which I’ll concede as close enough to pass).  Two near the perfect 11.3 @ 11.35. The rest are over and legal.

 

For the Colts balls, the initial pressure of 13 is assumed (Sean Sullivan is on record saying that is where he sets it for Andrew Luck). So we divide the absolute pressure difference into 27.6 to get % drop.  Ideal gas law says balls should not drop more than 1.2  PSI  from the original 13. Guess what? None come close to losing that much pressure, on either gauge!  So let’s now look at 13.5 PSI as initial pressure, the Max! In the absolute worst case scenario (lowest Colts ball pressure on lowest reading gauge) is 12.15.   

 

So 28.1 – 26.75 =  1.35.   1.35/28.1 = 4.8%  drop!!  That's worst case!!

 

That is so close to the 4.4% target, And less than the 5% I conceded in one of the Pats ball measurements above. All of the other 7 balls fall even less than Ideal Gas Law predicts, no matter using 13 or 13.5 as a starting pressure.  The drop is at or below 4.4% for 7 out of the 8 balls.    So essentially, not a single Colt ball was illegal, and at minimum, 2 of the Patriot balls were clearly illegal.  If the other gauge is used, then at least 7 were illegal.

 

Now this is what I’ve been saying all along, not only do the Pats balls NOT completely pass the Ideal Gas Law, by and large all of the Colts balls do, contrary to Pats fans postings here. But even if we use the gauge where most Pats balls do pass, the drop difference compared to the Colts balls in the same conditions isn’t even close to being the same.  This discrepancy has not been explained or refuted factually by anyone.  Halftime was only 13 minutes.  All measurements were done within 12 minutes then they had to gather them up and quickly get them back out to the field. Wells report says it took 2 to 4 minutes before pressure testing began.  4 to 5 minutes to do the Pats Balls, then 4 Colts balls before game was to kickoff again. So if Colts balls warmed up in the 9 -10 minutes in what took well over and hour plus minutes for cold to make, then the Pats balls measured in minutes 6 to 9 minute range should also have warmed up significantly enough as well and should have been close to being back into the 12 – 12.5 PSI reading like Colts balls were close to 12.5 – 13 PSI.  So I don’t buy into the Pats fans stories, theories, or that the science proves they are right.  mine says other wise, for at least 2 balls, maybe 7. I don't buy into the Exponent vs. AEI mumbo jumbo either..  I did my own research, calculations, and work and I’m satisfied with it and what I interpret from it.

 

I looked up weather data for that day/time in Foxboro (friendlyforecast was helpful – posted a pic) to get temp/barometric pressure for my calculations.  I did assume 75 degrees Fahrenheit for official’s locker room.

 

Since I find probability something may have happened, I look at other things, all documented-

 

Fact- McNally stole the balls from the officials room early, and took them into a locked bathroom for 100 seconds

McNally goes by the term Deflator

Between 2 (or 3) and 7 Patriots balls tested fail the Ideal Gas Law

None (or 1) Colts balls tested fails the Ideal Gas Law

Jastremski and McNally speak of needles and pressures

Brunnel, Aikman, and many other QB's vehemently declare Brady know exactly what is being done to his footballs

Brady is on record as preferring low pressure (deflated) footballs.

There is something else going on with the Pats footballs-  Sean Sullivan reported that both Patriots footballs Mike Adams intercepted were tacky and spongy. Sullivan didn't gauge the PSI back then (regular season game).

 

There's more, but enough There there to satisfy me as something is amiss.

 

This is the CBF report. Enjoy.

 

 

EDIT***  report are coming in saying Wells used 71 degrees as indoor temp.  At 72, the temp change % is 3.7% instead of 4.4!!  It is also reported they used 48 degrees F outdoors, but I have data showing temps between 52 and 51 from 7:00 pm until sometime well past 9:00 PM going on 10:00 PM.

[NewColtsFan]

I don't get a vote,  but if I did,  I would keep this OUT of the massive, never-ending thread.

 

Please keep this as a stand-alone for fresh eye-balls can find it easily enough.....

 

Many thanks, especially to ColtsBlueFl          

[Bravo]

Impressive!!!!

[Bubbz]

It's been a while since I've used the ideal law, is there a reason why it would be more accurate than gaylussacs?

[dw49]

I don't get a vote,  but if I did,  I would keep this OUT of the massive, never-ending thread.

 

Please keep this as a stand-alone for fresh eye-balls can find it easily enough.....

 

Many thanks, especially to ColtsBlueFl          

  

 

 

I agree

[Derakynn]

It's been a while since I've used the ideal law, is there a reason why it would be more accurate than gaylussacs?

PV=nRT is based off of the relationships described by Gay-Lussacs law. They should come to the same conclusion.

[Bubbz]

PV=nRT is based off of the relationships described by Gay-Lussacs law. They should come to the same conclusion.

How can you account for the change in temperature

[NFLfan]

Excellent work, CBF! I too vote to keep this thread separate from the merged Deflategate thread. Thank you.

[ColtsBlueFL]

It's been a while since I've used the ideal law, is there a reason why it would be more accurate than gaylussacs?

 

I feel it is because we have to assume no hanky panky is going on so number of molecules n is constant (no air let in or out).  The football leather and bladder hold Volume fairly well, so Volume V is constant, and  of course R is by definition is a constant so the calc can be simplified and reduced to just how does the temperature affect the pressure from indoors to outdoors, Right?.  That is how I arrived at my formula for % change, and measured every ball against the predicted value based upon game temp.  To get absolute pressure right, you need to convert Barometric pressure during the game to ATM, which was 14.6 PSI, not the standard assumed 14.7 PSI. This is added to gauge pressure for the absolute pressure calculations.

 

So if we just want to see if Temp change explains the drop, this is the best way, IMO.  Actually, I'm lazy, so I needed to make this easy as I could in order to even try.  ;-) {winky}

[ColtsBlueFL]

How can you account for the change in temperature

 

You calculate the percent temp change from indoors to outdoors That's where I converted them to Kelvin, subtracted the lesser from greater, the divide that into the greater for % change.  That set the standard at a  4.4%  drop.  Anything more (higher percentages) means other items may have been involved.  and I expect as balls warm up to come back toward the indoor temp, so some at less then 4.4% is reasonable.  It's the ones the go over that raise an eyebrow... and begs why?

[Derakynn]

How can you account for the change in temperature

His law says (P/T)=k. If there was no deflation, k should be constant. In which case you can set the equations equal, making it (p1/T1)=(p2/T2) and solve for P2, the pressure that the balls should be at the lower temperature, T2.

[ponyboy]

Nice job.

 

Wells report used 67-71F for the indoor temperature range and 48 for the ending outdoor temperature.

 

I'm curious to know how quickly the temperature in the balls would rise when moving from 48 back to 67-71?  Something between 48-71 is where the actual halftime temperature would be for the calculations.

 

You could probably use the Colts measurements at halftime to get a rough estimate of what the temperature was in the balls at halftime.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Nice job.

 

Wells report used 67-71F for the indoor temperature range and 48 for the ending outdoor temperature.

 

I'm curious to know how quickly the temperature in the balls would rise when moving from 48 back to 67-71?  Something between 48-71 is where the actual halftime temperature would be for the calculations.

 

You could probably use the Colts measurements at halftime to get a rough estimate of what the temperature was in the balls at halftime.

 

well, according friendly forecast, the weather from 7:00 pm  to 8:00 pm was this in Foxboro-

 

 

It was pretty consistent before and after that, but it showed light rain later even though temps stayed around 51-52 until later in the second half where they were near 48-49 at the end of the game.  I think my data I researched is closer to what was at half time.  An if room was 72 instead of 75... well that means the % drop of Pats balls might be even higher.  It would be easy for someone to plug and chug the numbers. Well,  I'll just do it..  A quick check show 295 kelvin minus 284 Kelvin is 11 divide into 295 is 3.7% change instead of 4.4% .   Wow!

 

Here's the weather data for the game.from 8 - 10 pm.  as you can see, it wasn't 49 until around 10:00 pm, and rain began around  9:00 PM area.

 

 

That's even worse for Pats fans.

[amfootball]

Lol. Nice thread but I will leave the science to actual scientists ...

[Jhaze55]

Lol. Nice thread but I will leave the science to actual scientists ...

The ideal gas law is taught to 15 year olds in high school. It doesn't take an "actual scientist" to use.

 

Just saying

[basspapaw]

Lol. Nice thread but I will leave the science to actual scientists ...

Yea the science is only good if it has the outcome you want,It did not stop you from picking apart the well report Face it they cheated the science proves it whether

or not you like it , Its funny how you pick and choose what crap you call Facts and what science you want to qoute

[jvan1973]

Lol. Nice thread but I will leave the science to actual scientists ...

How do you know the OP isn't a scientist

Also, scientists came up with the figures for the NFLs investigation

[IndyTrav]

Maybe this is a dumb question that's been answered a 100x but I haven't really paid much attention to this whole thing.

Why do two different refs have 2 seperate sets of numbers? Are they sitting next to each other measuring directly after one another?

[Bad Morty]

^{“I believe the data available on ball pressures can be explained on the basis of physical law, without manipulation. The scientific analysis in the Wells Report was a good attempt to seek the truth, however, it was based on data that are simply insufficient. In experimental science to reach a meaningful conclusion we make measurements multiple times under well-defined physical conditions. This is how we deal with the error or ‘spread’ of measured values. In the pressure measurements physical conditions were not very well-defined and major uncertainties, such as which gauge was used in pre-game measurements, affect conclusions. Finally, the claim of a statistically significant difference in pressure drop between the two team balls regardless of which gauge was used did not account for the fact that the Colts balls were apparently measured at the end of halftime since the officials ran out of time and made only four measurements – in other words, the Colts balls were measured after the Patriots balls and had warmed up more. For the above reasons, the Wells Report conclusion that physical law cannot explain the pressures is incorrect.” - Roderick MacKinnon, 2003 Nobel Prize Winner in Chemistry.}

[ColtsBlueFL]

Maybe this is a dumb question that's been answered a 100x but I haven't really paid much attention to this whole thing.

Why do two different refs have 2 seperate sets of numbers? Are they sitting next to each other measuring directly after one another?

 

The head Ref, Walt Anderson had two gauges with him, a logo gauge and non logo gauge.  It is not clear which he used for pre-game inspection.  Thus, the two back up Refs at half time each had one of his gauges, and they measured each ball, then swapped.  The numbers for each gauge on each ball was recorded.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[Shane Bond]

{Note: fellow mods - feel free to merge this at some point in time if necessary, but for a while I ask this post to have its own place as much time and effort was placed into creating this document. thanks.}

Why I (and maybe other fans) still feel there is something wrong with DeflateGate. Long!!

Ideal Gas Law – applied (I do ALL my own work here, nothing taken from reports except gauge pressures)

Conditions: Assumed Indoor temp 75 degrees F,

Outdoor temp 52 F (between 7:00 and 8:00 pm) Barometric pressure 29.75 inHg (Fact, pic below)

That gives us temps of 297 Kelvin indoors and 284 Kelvin outdoors, and ambient air pressure of 14.6 PSI

PV = nRT = P = (nRT) / V so - nR/V = K final simplified - P=KT where T is in Kelvin and K is constant

T is 297 – 284 = 13 degrees Kelvin. Now - 13 / 297 = 4.4% is our variation is the target. Thus no football should appreciably drop more than close to that percentage. For a 75 F warm 12.5 PSI ball, that would be 11.3 PSI when in 52 F cold @ 29.75 inHg.

Now let’s do some calculations of our own based upon ball gauge readings from Wells report. But first, we will make sure WE do not make the Mistake others have made in original tests and calculations (absolute pressure versus Gauge pressure). To do this right you add the pressure of (all) the balls to the atmospheric pressure at that time, both indoor and outdoor gauge pressures, and solve from there. Examples from Wells report; Patriots balls using lower scale gauge- pressure drop % shown:

12.5 + 14.6 = 27.1 PSI. This is our Patriot indoor pressure standard.

10.5 + 14.6 = 25.1 PSI 27.1-25.1 = 2 PSI drop 2.0/27.1 = 7.4%

10.7 + 14.6 = 25.3 1.8 PSI drop 1.8/27.1 = 6.6%

10.85 + 14.6 = 25.45 1.65 PSI drop 1.55/27.1 = 6.1%

10.9 + 14.6 = 25.5 = 1.6 1.6/27 = 5.9%

10.95 = 5.7% , 11.1 = 5.2% (x2), 11.15 = 5%

11.50 = 3.7% , 11.60 3.3% finally 11.85 = 2.4%

So I calculate that 7 of the 11 balls failed to meet the ideal gas law. Looking at the pressures on the higher scale gauge, there are still 2 balls that fail (10.9, 11.0, and an 11.2 which I’ll concede as close enough to pass). Two near the perfect 11.3 @ 11.35. The rest are over and legal.

For the Colts balls, the initial pressure of 13 is assumed (Sean Sullivan is on record saying that is where he sets it for Andrew Luck). So we divide the absolute pressure difference into 27.6 to get % drop. Ideal gas law says balls should not drop more than 1.2 PSI from the original 13. Guess what? None come close to losing that much pressure, on either gauge! So let’s now look at 13.5 PSI as initial pressure, the Max! In the absolute worst case scenario (lowest Colts ball pressure on lowest reading gauge) is 12.15.

So 28.1 – 26.75 = 1.35. 1.35/28.1 = 4.8% drop!! That's worst case!!

That is so close to the 4.4% target, And less than the 5% I conceded in one of the Pats ball measurements above. All of the other 7 balls fall even less than Ideal Gas Law predicts, no matter using 13 or 13.5 as a starting pressure. The drop is at or below 4.4% for 7 out of the 8 balls. So essentially, not a single Colt ball was illegal, and at minimum, 2 of the Patriot balls were clearly illegal. If the other gauge is used, then at least 7 were illegal.

Now this is what I’ve been saying all along, not only do the Pats balls NOT completely pass the Ideal Gas Law, by and large all of the Colts balls do, contrary to Pats fans postings here. But even if we use the gauge where most Pats balls do pass, the drop difference compared to the Colts balls in the same conditions isn’t even close to being the same. This discrepancy has not been explained or refuted factually by anyone. Halftime was only 13 minutes. All measurements were done within 12 minutes then they had to gather them up and quickly get them back out to the field. Wells report says it took 2 to 4 minutes before pressure testing began. 4 to 5 minutes to do the Pats Balls, then 4 Colts balls before game was to kickoff again. So if Colts balls warmed up in the 9 -10 minutes in what took well over and hour plus minutes for cold to make, then the Pats balls measured in minutes 6 to 9 minute range should also have warmed up significantly enough as well and should have been close to being back into the 12 – 12.5 PSI reading like Colts balls were close to 12.5 – 13 PSI. So I don’t buy into the Pats fans stories, theories, or that the science proves they are right. mine says other wise, for at least 2 balls, maybe 7. I don't buy into the Exponent vs. AEI mumbo jumbo either.. I did my own research, calculations, and work and I’m satisfied with it and what I interpret from it.

I looked up weather data for that day/time in Foxboro (friendlyforecast was helpful – posted a pic) to get temp/barometric pressure for my calculations. I did assume 75 degrees Fahrenheit for official’s locker room.

Since I find probability something may have happened, I look at other things, all documented-

Fact- McNally stole the balls from the officials room early, and took them into a locked bathroom for 100 seconds

McNally goes by the term Deflator

Between 2 (or 3) and 7 Patriots balls tested fail the Ideal Gas Law

None (or 1) Colts balls tested fails the Ideal Gas Law

Jastremski and McNally speak of needles and pressures

Brunnel, Aikman, and many other QB's vehemently declare Brady know exactly what is being done to his footballs

Brady is on record as preferring low pressure (deflated) footballs.

There is something else going on with the Pats footballs- Sean Sullivan reported that both Patriots footballs Mike Adams intercepted were tacky and spongy. Sullivan didn't gauge the PSI back then (regular season game).

There's more, but enough There there to satisfy me as something is amiss.

This is the CBF report. Enjoy.

EDIT*** report are coming in saying Wells used 71 degrees as indoor temp. At 72, the temp change % is 3.7% instead of 4.4!! It is also reported they used 48 degrees F outdoors, but I have data showing temps between 52 and 51 from 7:00 pm until sometime well past 9:00 PM going on 10:00 PM.

A+++ for effort

[ColtsBlueFL]

^{“I believe the data available on ball pressures can be explained on the basis of physical law, without manipulation. The scientific analysis in the Wells Report was a good attempt to seek the truth, however, it was based on data that are simply insufficient. In experimental science to reach a meaningful conclusion we make measurements multiple times under well-defined physical conditions. This is how we deal with the error or ‘spread’ of measured values. In the pressure measurements physical conditions were not very well-defined and major uncertainties, such as which gauge was used in pre-game measurements, affect conclusions. Finally, the claim of a statistically significant difference in pressure drop between the two team balls regardless of which gauge was used did not account for the fact that the Colts balls were apparently measured at the end of halftime since the officials ran out of time and made only four measurements – in other words, the Colts balls were measured after the Patriots balls and had warmed up more. For the above reasons, the Wells Report conclusion that physical law cannot explain the pressures is incorrect.” - Roderick MacKinnon, 2003 Nobel Prize Winner in Chemistry.}

 

 

According to Wells report, the time frame where all 15 balls (11 Patriots, 4 Colts) were all completed in about an 8 minute time frame. Halftime was slated 13 minutes, the first 3-4 minutes in the locker room both sets were warming back up as they were setting up the test.  I bet it is easy to set up an experiment showing how much a ball at 52 degrees F warms up in a 72 or 75 F room in a 12 minute span, those 1st 3 or 4 minutes meaning little (as no measurements were done on any balls at that point).  That could blow half of his supposition totally away.  And the other half he is saying the only way to have done it right is to stop the game and make a science fair out of halftime and run experiments until sufficient controlled data is achieved with all balls on both sides.  We all know the NFL isn't doing that. So his conclusion is there was nothing done to the balls because proper testing protocol wasn't achieved. I don't fully buy in to it unless HE performs the warmup test and provides the figures, in a properly setup test with defined conditions slotted within a 12 minute time span and is replicable... That the Colts balls were markedly better because they sat an extra minute or two until they were tested.  His claim, his proof.

[Bad Morty]

According to Wells report, the time frame where all 15 balls (11 Patriots, 4 Colts) were all completed in about an 8 minute time frame. Halftime was slated 13 minutes, the first 3-4 minutes in the locker room both sets were warming back up as they were setting up the test.  I bet it is easy to set up an experiment showing how much a ball at 52 degrees F warms up in a 72 or 75 F room in a 12 minute span, those 1st 3 or 4 minutes meaning little (as no measurements were done on any balls at that point).  That could blow half of his supposition totally away.  And the other half he is saying the only way to have done it right is to stop the game and make a science fair out of halftime and run experiments until sufficient controlled data is achieved with all balls on both sides.  We all the NFL isn't doing that. So his conclusion is there was nothing done to the balls because proper testing protocol wasn't achieved. I don't fully buy in to it unless HE performs the warmup test and provides the figures, in a properly setup test with defined conditions slotted within a 12 minute time span and is replicable... That the Colts balls were markedly better because they sat an extra minute or two until they were tested.  His claim, his proof.

And here we are discussing this across 2 different threads, but that's exactly the point I just made...to make the case that balls were tampered with, it should require conclusive scientific proof, no? I mean set aside the bias you have against the Patriots for a second. Isn't it clear that the league had no idea that the balls deflated on their own?

[ColtsBlueFL]

And here we are discussing this across 2 different threads, but that's exactly the point I just made...to make the case that balls were tampered with, it should require conclusive scientific proof, no? I mean set aside the bias you have against the Patriots for a second. Isn't it clear that the league had no idea that the balls deflated on their own?

 

No, just provide a clue- "Is it more probable than not".  It's collecting evidence in a case, not proving a new law/theorem etc. It's just part of the whole investigation, not a science fair.  If it is reasonably legit, then start looking at other factors and see if they fit the puzzle too.  It's the league standard.  Not absolute proof, nor beyond a reasonable doubt.  That is the burden of proof in the NFL, like it or not, and don't lose sight of that.

[Bad Morty]

No, just provide a clue- "Is it more probable than not".  It's collecting evidence in a case, not proving a new law/theorem etc. It's just part of the whole investigation, not a science fair.  If it is reasonably legit, then start looking at other factors and see if they fit the puzzle too.  It's the league standard.  Not absolute proof, nor beyond a reasonable doubt.  That is the burden of proof, like it or not, and don't lose sight of that.

no...I'm not talking about the NFL's standard for administering punishment...I'm talking about the scientific standard for arriving at a conclusion. You can't say that the science was "close enough".  We are talking about very small numbers here. Wells used some loose assumptions and bad statistical analysis to arrive at the conclusion that the balls were very slightly (i.e. 0.2 PSI) deflated beyond what the ideal gas law would predict. So you can stake your opinion to that if you choose, however my point is that if the shoddy science only gets you to a barely significant level of potential deflation, does it really make sense that there was an organized scheme to deflate footballs to gain an advantage? It's not reasonable to me that anybody would risk all of this to get a deflation level that couldn't possibly be detected by anybody without a gauge. There were a bunch of commentators on television in the first week of this when we all thought the balls were 2lbs light who did the feel test, and all of them could tell which ball was 12.5 and which was 10.5. I'd love to see those same people do that same test on balls that are 11.3 vs balls that are 11.1....I doubt anybody could legitimately feel that difference.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Which now brings me to another point.  We have the other deflategate thread.  Unless you can bring in a test that was run by you or someone else, or link to a test, posts trying to debunk my data without such will be moved to the other thread.  Bring substance to the table in this thread, even if it doesn't strictly pass the scientific method muster...

 

{tagging post to other rmods to see if this is reasonable and they'll help in moderation}

[amfootball]

How do you know the OP isn't a scientist

Also, scientists came up with the figures for the NFLs investigation

I assumed he would have stated it and again I will trust the professionals over an Internet chat board ...

[Lawrence Owen]

And here we are discussing this across 2 different threads, but that's exactly the point I just made...to make the case that balls were tampered with, it should require conclusive scientific proof, no? I mean set aside the bias you have against the Patriots for a second. Isn't it clear that the league had no idea that the balls deflated on their own?

Conclusive proof is not needed. ALL the owners, including Kraft, voted that "more probable than not" is strong enough conclusion to convict a few years ago.  Just as similarly in a court of law.

[ponyboy]

I assumed he would have stated it and again I will trust the professionals over an Internet chat board ...

 

Like the professionals at Exponent?

[jvan1973]

I assumed he would have stated it and again I will trust the professionals over an Internet chat board ...

Like the professionals used in the Wells investigation?

[Lawrence Owen]

I assumed he would have stated it and again I will trust the professionals over an Internet chat board ...

The wells investigators ARE professionals...but you do not take their findings.  AND find a scientific outlay that debunks this.  You cannot because math is math, it is universal.  2+2=4 whether you are in 4th grade, or have a masters in rocket science.

[ColtsBlueFL]

OK. I'm locking this.  Let's take the debate back over to deflategate thread please.  If anybody finds a test, either way, and want's it posted in here, PM me or another mod and we will open it up for your post.

 

I don't want this thread out of hand like the other one. We'll keep the mess over there.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I have now used the exact data Exponent used in the Wells report with My model and supplied the information located in the middle of the body of the original CBF report.

 

For fear of some (not to be named) forum visitors/members coming in and destroying the room, I'm re locking the door.

 

(yes, it is even more condemning than my results produced)