Mayock has Damarious Randall as his #1 safety + updated positional rankings.

[Dustin]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000486035/article/mike-mayocks-2015-nfl-draft-position-rankings-40

 

This dude is going round 1. 

[Dustin]

Also has Paul Dawson as his number #1 LB. 

[Colts_Fan12]

Is he losing his mind?

[Gavin]

Entirely to much time for draft analysts and fans and draft gurus between the Combine and draft I tell ya

[CR91]

mayock is losing it

[Colts_Fan12]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000486035/article/mike-mayocks-2015-nfl-draft-position-rankings-40

This dude is going round 1.

prolly to us

[#BringBobBack]

wouldn't mind pulling the trigger early on a safety like Randall i like him

[krunk]

I don't care what nobody says I like Randall.  I'm not necessarily calling for him in the 1st, but we'll see what happens

[Superman]

Also has Paul Dawson as his number #1 LB. 

 

He's had Dawson there for a while now. I'm surprised by the Randall move, though.

[Derakynn]

4 months with absolutely nothing changing (unless they get arrested), and somehow these people managed to decide that players fluctuate by 3 rounds or more. The only reason things go this way is because enthusiasm cools. A new toy looks great when you compare it to something you are used to/have been seeing for months. I don't put any stock in players that fluctuate that much. 

[Superman]

4 months with absolutely nothing changing (unless they get arrested), and somehow these people managed to decide that players fluctuate by 3 rounds or more. The only reason things go this way is because enthusiasm cools. A new toy looks great when you compare it to something you are used to/have been seeing for months. I don't put any stock in players that fluctuate that much. 

 

The bolded isn't true. You keep watching film, you learn more about players, some of them get worked out, etc. Mayock, for instance, has seen more film now than he had seen four months ago.

 

I don't know why anyone would think that draft boards can't or shouldn't change as time goes on. All this evaluation that teams and coaches do, film work, meetings, workouts, medical checks, etc., and you don't expect anything to change? 

[wig]

I will laugh if the Colts get him in the first round and he ends up being a stud with how many people here hate on him because of 1 bad tape or draft bloggers not being high on him.

[Defjamz26]

I would honestly take Landon Collins over Randall. Heck I'd take Derron Smith over Randall.

Idk why he is flying up boards. He doesn't have 1st round tape

[akcolt]

I would honestly take Landon Collins over Randall. Heck I'd take Derron Smith over Randall.

Idk why he is flying up boards. He doesn't have 1st round tape

I hope we go in a different direction as well. I don't think Grig's will reach. I don't think he sees S as the hole the board does anyway

I think our biggest hole is RT with uncertainty around the GC injury and the lack off depth

He added his guys I think he's in position to go BPA, trade up, back whatever he wants. I'm very interested to see how this plays out.

[Derakynn]

The bolded isn't true. You keep watching film, you learn more about players, some of them get worked out, etc. Mayock, for instance, has seen more film now than he had seen four months ago.

 

I don't know why anyone would think that draft boards can't or shouldn't change as time goes on. All this evaluation that teams and coaches do, film work, meetings, workouts, medical checks, etc., and you don't expect anything to change? 

"Nothing changes" is speaking quite literally. The film already exists. The athletic ability was always there. They either have character concerns or they don't. The only thing that happens, as I stated, is that they just keep looking more and more at it. Workouts are great, but it really doesn't matter if you can bench 300 times if you also have absolutely no balance. Film is the most important thing to gauge a player's ability to actually play. Which already existed 4 months ago. Interviews determine if they are the type of person you want to draft on your team. But that has no bearing on his actual natural abilities to play the game. Just because he doesn't fit with your team wouldn't have a bearing on some guy at ESPN's mock. Also, these dudes are starting their boards nearly a year before the draft. That says to me that they have at least seen some degree of film on a guy to rate him where you had him originally. You don't just have some reasoning for saying some guy has enough flaws that he shouldn't go until the 3rd or 4th round, and then go back and decide he is suddenly better than the 10 players you had ahead of him and he should definitely be drafted way ahead of all the other players in all other positions who you though were better than him. Nothing about them changed. 

 

And to be clear, a medical drop or character drop is far different than a drop (or raise) based on actual skill. Of which this is directly referring to. 

[Superman]

"Nothing changes" is speaking quite literally. The film already exists. The athletic ability was always there. They either have character concerns or they don't. The only thing that happens, as I stated, is that they just keep looking more and more at it. Workouts are great, but it really doesn't matter if you can bench 300 times if you also have absolutely no balance. Film is the most important thing to gauge a player's ability to actually play. Which already existed 4 months ago. Interviews determine if they are the type of person you want to draft on your team. But that has no bearing on his actual natural abilities to play the game. Just because he doesn't fit with your team wouldn't have a bearing on some guy at ESPN's mock. Also, these dudes are starting their boards nearly a year before the draft. That says to me that they have at least seen some degree of film on a guy to rate him where you had him originally. You don't just have some reasoning for saying some guy has enough flaws that he shouldn't go until the 3rd or 4th round, and then go back and decide he is suddenly better than the 10 players you had ahead of him and he should definitely be drafted way ahead of all the other players in all other positions who you though were better than him. Nothing about them changed. 

 

And to be clear, a medical drop or character drop is far different than a drop (or raise) based on actual skill. Of which this is directly referring to. 

 

"Nothing changes" is quite literally wrong. Unless you think scouts and evaluators are able to magically download game film into their brains like The Matrix, then you must recognize that it takes time for a staff to go through tape. There could be a prospect that the GM and coach haven't really had time to watch until now. Coaches can't really start scouting and going through tape until before the Combine, especially if you win a couple playoff games.

 

So it could very well be that what's changed is the most important thing: a staff has finally been able to really evaluate a player that didn't jump out to them back in January, and now they're having their pre-draft meetings and everyone in the room is high on the guy.

 

If you're just talking about the media "experts," then that's another story. But even then, these guys are all influenced by the leaks. One guy says the Colts are high on Randall (and we don't know, but the Colts might have been high on Randall from the beginning), and now everyone else starts wondering how that might influence the board. Mayock says his board and rankings are based primarily on his grades, but I think it's nearly impossible to not be influenced, even subconsciously, by what other people are saying.

 

As for workouts, I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest that what guys do at the Combine and pro days influences their draft stock. And personal interviews are just as important for drafting players as they are for hiring employees. None of that is as important as the game tape, but it definitely matters.

[NewColtsFan]

I will laugh if the Colts get him in the first round and he ends up being a stud with how many people here hate on him because of 1 bad tape or draft bloggers not being high on him.

 

If you're under the impression that it's just draft bloggers who are calling this a very poor class of safeties,  then you're just not paying enough attention.

 

That's coming from NFL types as well.

 

The consensus is that Collins is the only safety worthy of a 1st round pick.   Beyond that,  everyone else is up for debate....

[NewColtsFan]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000486035/article/mike-mayocks-2015-nfl-draft-position-rankings-40

 

This dude is going round 1. 

 

I'll make you a gentleman's bet that he doesn't.

[Colts_Fan12]

I'll make you a gentleman's bet that he doesn't.

I really really really hope you are right NCF!!!!!

And if he does hopefully its before our pick so a better player drops

[Dustin]

I'll make you a gentleman's bet that he doesn't.

 

deal. 

[wig]

The consensus is.

Apparently not?

[Gavin]

"Nothing changes" is quite literally wrong. Unless you think scouts and evaluators are able to magically download game film into their brains like The Matrix, then you must recognize that it takes time for a staff to go through tape. There could be a prospect that the GM and coach haven't really had time to watch until now. Coaches can't really start scouting and going through tape until before the Combine, especially if you win a couple playoff games.

 

So it could very well be that what's changed is the most important thing: a staff has finally been able to really evaluate a player that didn't jump out to them back in January, and now they're having their pre-draft meetings and everyone in the room is high on the guy.

 

If you're just talking about the media "experts," then that's another story. But even then, these guys are all influenced by the leaks. One guy says the Colts are high on Randall (and we don't know, but the Colts might have been high on Randall from the beginning), and now everyone else starts wondering how that might influence the board. Mayock says his board and rankings are based primarily on his grades, but I think it's nearly impossible to not be influenced, even subconsciously, by what other people are saying.

 

As for workouts, I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest that what guys do at the Combine and pro days influences their draft stock. And personal interviews are just as important for drafting players as they are for hiring employees. None of that is as important as the game tape, but it definitely matters.

What Im wondering is when it comes to a prospect (Randall just for example) is how much tape they watch on a player, such as a full game, a couple full games, Do they have gobs of film around on ALL the prospects (That would be a ton of film)...Im also interested on their grading system used.

 

When Bucky Brooks was in Seattle they would watch three tapes on a prospect and decide where said player would go on a board

[Superman]

What Im wondering is when it comes to a prospect (Randall just for example) is how much tape they watch on a player, such as a full game, a couple full games, Do they have gobs of film around on ALL the prospects (That would be a ton of film)...Im also interested on their grading system used.

 

When Bucky Brooks was in Seattle they would watch three tapes on a prospect and decide where said player would go on a board

 

I can see that as a preliminary way of putting a board together. But I'm sure they watch more than three tapes on a guy they want to draft. They have access to all the tape they want, and they have staff guys who cut up film all day long for them. They definitely aren't on DraftBreakdown waiting for more cutups of Henry Anderson like I am...

[NewColtsFan]

Apparently not?

 

 

Consensus does NOT mean unanimous.

[Superman]

deal. 

 

Really... I thought you were just talkin' mess. I don't think Randall goes in the first, either. I want to watch more of his games, but I think he's just getting some pre-draft hype. Last year, it was Terrence Brooks. He went #79.

[horseshoeblue22]

Ive heard that teams typically have "regional" scouts that generally cover all schools in an area of 2-3 states. They note down the players that really stand out and impress the most, and turn it in the GM at the end of the season. I am sure the GM is involved in laying the ground work as well, but during the season it is mostly the regional scouts doing the hard stuff.

Then when the offseason starts, the GM and coaches get more involved, sorting through prospects and eventually creating and ranking a list of approximately 300 draftable players. This is referred to as the big board.

As times gets closer to the draft, the evaluators spend more and more time watching film. They might watch three games at start. If they like that player, they might watch three more. At that point, if they are sold on that player they might watch the rest of the film and rewatch to see if there was something they missed.

Then with the combine, more film, more meetings, more pro days etc...the information data base grows and prospects may move up or down the board accordingly.

Some guys may stay in the same spot throughout the process, but it takes months to process that much game film and rewatch it to get a grasp on each players skill. Do you have any idea how long it would take for one person to watch EVERY game of EVERY college over the course of a single CFB season? Thats not even mentioning sophmore, junior or freshman seasons, assuming we are talking about a 4 year player.

For a guy like Mayock, I doubt he has watched half the game film that a typical NFL scout has. Alot of his information is based on what he is hearing from personnel departments around the league. According to NFL Network, he put Randall as the top safety because its become clear that Randall is the most gifted safety in pass coverage. Landon Collins is seen as being better in run support and is more adept at playing around the line of scrimmage.

His reasoning is: better against the pass > better against the run. 68% of all plays in the NFL are passes, according to NFLN. So a guy like Randall who is kind of a hybrid CB/S could be the new "prototype" safety in tomorrow's NFL. If he is that talented in 1-on-1 man coverage from the safety position, I see no reason why he wouldnt be worth a late first round draft pick.

[wig]

Consensus does NOT mean unanimous.

I know what consensus means. But when he has public momentum and we don't know what GMs think, I don't know how you can say it's a consensus.

[Kylo Ren]

Buffoonery on Mayocks part

[Derakynn]

"Nothing changes" is quite literally wrong. Unless you think scouts and evaluators are able to magically download game film into their brains like The Matrix, then you must recognize that it takes time for a staff to go through tape. There could be a prospect that the GM and coach haven't really had time to watch until now. Coaches can't really start scouting and going through tape until before the Combine, especially if you win a couple playoff games.

 

So it could very well be that what's changed is the most important thing: a staff has finally been able to really evaluate a player that didn't jump out to them back in January, and now they're having their pre-draft meetings and everyone in the room is high on the guy.

 

If you're just talking about the media "experts," then that's another story. But even then, these guys are all influenced by the leaks. One guy says the Colts are high on Randall (and we don't know, but the Colts might have been high on Randall from the beginning), and now everyone else starts wondering how that might influence the board. Mayock says his board and rankings are based primarily on his grades, but I think it's nearly impossible to not be influenced, even subconsciously, by what other people are saying.

 

As for workouts, I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest that what guys do at the Combine and pro days influences their draft stock. And personal interviews are just as important for drafting players as they are for hiring employees. None of that is as important as the game tape, but it definitely matters.

We will just have to agree to disagree. You'd have to take into account both of my previous posts to really get what I am saying. And I am not referring to teams at all. I am saying that I take no stock in massive changes of various draft guys on the internet. 

[NewColtsFan]

I know what consensus means. But when he has public momentum and we don't know what GMs think, I don't know how you can say it's a consensus.

 

What does "public momentum" even mean?

 

Right now,  he's the ONLY GUY projecting Randall in the first.      What momentum?

[wig]

What does "public momentum" even mean?

Right now, he's the ONLY GUY projecting Randall in the first. What momentum?

Others have drastically bumped him up. Usually because of what they're hearing.

[NewColtsFan]

Others have drastically bumped him up. Usually because of what they're hearing.

 

Really?

 

Name one.    And please define "drastically"....

[bestQBever]

This is complete bull. I think they just had nothing to talk about so they had to stir it up a bit. It's hard to trust a guy who changes his mind at the last second twice.

[Dark Superman]

Dang. Well there goes my hope of us snatching Randall at 29.

[wig]

Really?

Name one. And please define "drastically"....

I'm on my phone, will double check tomorrow. Are you saying his stock hasn't risen recently?

[NewColtsFan]

I'm on my phone, will double check tomorrow. Are you saying his stock hasn't risen recently?

 

I'm saying it's clearly risen with Mayock.   And I noticed Daniel Jeremiah and Charles Davis throwing him some shade saying Randall could slip into the first round....

 

But he hasn't risen on ESPN and he hasn't risen with NFL.com's evaluator and he hasn't risen on CBS Sports.com.

 

Those are the big three.     I'm sure it's possible that he's risen elsewhere,  but I'm going to be highly skeptical of that site.   I think most draft sites aren't worth the internet paper they write on....

 

Garbage in;  garbage out.

[NewColtsFan]

Since this is a thread about Mayock's latest top-5 at each position adjustments....  and some are talking about Mayock losing his mind....

 

I'm reminded of a thread I started nearly a full year ago when Mayock released his top-100 which I dissected into groups of 10 and broke down my objections in each...

 

Superman was kind enough to dig it up for me....    so I thought I'd let everyone stroll down memory lane with a look at that thread and that unfolded.    I'm sure Mayock will offer a top-100 the week of the draft this year as well.

 

Here's his top-100 from last year....

 

http://forums.colts.com/topic/28439-mike-mayocks-top-100-the-man-has-lost-it/

[Dustin]

Really?

 

Name one.    And please define "drastically"....

 

Matt Miller moved him up from his #181th ranked player to putting him in the first round. 

[NewColtsFan]

Matt Miller moved him up from his #181th ranked player to putting him in the first round. 

 

Read your own post.

 

Doesn't that strike you as the least bit ridiculous?

 

Matt Miller had him ranked 181st.     That's in the 6th round.

 

So, due to Mike Mayock,  he moved him from the 6th round to the 1st.

 

I'd be embarrassed as hell to admit that, much less do that.

 

Talk about lack of credibility?     That's a textbook definition.

 

If you want to give points for that,  be my guest.....

[Dustin]

Read your own post.

 

Doesn't that strike you as the least bit ridiculous?

 

Matt Miller had him ranked 181st.     That's in the 6th round.

 

So, due to Mike Mayock,  he moved him from the 6th round to the 1st.

 

I'd be embarrassed as hell to admit that, much less do that.

 

Talk about lack of credibility?     That's a textbook definition.

 

If you want to give points for that,  be my guest.....

 

No, he had him mocked in the first for the last week and a half. He was the first "national guy" to do so.