If Forrest Lamp was 100% the 15th best player in the draft, would you take him there?

[PrincetonTiger]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not worried about OL actually making Pro Bowls, but being a Pro Bowl level player is, IMO, a different story. Luck didn't make the Pro Bowl this year, but he was obviously a Pro Bowl level player.

 

Secondly, why isn't the 15th best player in a draft going to be a Pro Bowler??

Nicely put

[Track Guy]

6 hours ago, ClaytonColt said:

No doubt. It doesn't quite reflect the constant occurrence that was mentioned though. 

 

What, you mentioned 2 boards that have him lower. Should I be asking you for an essay? ESPN has him at 14th. CharlieMann has him at 12th. Joe Marino has him at 10th, Arif Hasan has him at 15th, Josh Norris has him at 10th... Stop trying to make me seem like a liar. He's mentioned in that range often enough that I am right and you are silly for calling me out. 

 

Sure there is variance, there is with any player. There are tons of big boards out there that will have him at 20 - 30 range. Whatever. I never said he was universally ranked top 10 - 15, just pretty often. We don't know what the Colts board falls like.

[BlueTruth]

No, cause there will be a player available when We pick that has a higher grade/ is valued better than 15 when We pick at 15.

 

ESPECIALLY, if, two QBs get picked before Us. It happens year-after-after that a "top ten" player falls in Round 1 and if that player is there, We should draft them.

 

After reading the OLine article about the Colts OLIne, I don't feel so biased that I don't think We need to bring in another O-Lineman, but I agree with Mewhort that We have pieces that could protect Luck this year, but that depends on two young guys progressing from last season.

[ClaytonColt]

5 minutes ago, Track Guy said:

 

What, you mentioned 2 boards that have him lower. Should I be asking you for an essay? ESPN has him at 14th. CharlieMann has him at 12th. Joe Marino has him at 10th, Arif Hasan has him at 15th, Josh Norris has him at 10th... Stop trying to make me seem like a liar. He's mentioned in that range often enough that I am right and you are silly for calling me out. 

 

Sure there is variance, there is with any player. There are tons of big boards out there that will have him at 20 - 30 range. Whatever. I never said he was universally ranked top 10 - 15, just pretty often. We don't know what the Colts board falls like.

I can find more. I simply searched 'NFL big board' and every one I found on the first 4 pages except ESPN had him outside the top 20 with plenty of them having him outside the top 30.

 

I don't know who most of those guys you mention are, I didn't call you a liar though just said I hadn't seen them.

 

If we're talking about him being clearly 100% the best player available at that number 15 I'd expect a little more of a consensus. 

[NewColtsFan]

14 minutes ago, Track Guy said:

 

What, you mentioned 2 boards that have him lower. Should I be asking you for an essay? ESPN has him at 14th. CharlieMann has him at 12th. Joe Marino has him at 10th, Arif Hasan has him at 15th, Josh Norris has him at 10th... Stop trying to make me seem like a liar. He's mentioned in that range often enough that I am right and you are silly for calling me out. 

 

Sure there is variance, there is with any player. There are tons of big boards out there that will have him at 20 - 30 range. Whatever. I never said he was universally ranked top 10 - 15, just pretty often. We don't know what the Colts board falls like.

 

No trying to be argumentative....

 

But who are Charlie Mann?     Joe Marino?     Ari Hasan?    And Josh Norris?       Who are they?    What are their credentials?       Why should we care what they have to say?

 

Before this moment,   I never heard of them?

 

Can you help me a little here?

 

[NewColtsFan]

7 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Probably not any less reliable than all the other internet "draft experts" if we're being honest.

 

You're telling me the posts on Reddit are the same level of draft expert than ESPN,  NFL.com and CBS Sports.com?

 

Really?      Since when?

 

When did Reddit become a go-to source for good NFL draft information.      This is the first I've ever heard of this in my five years on this website.....

 

[RockThatBlue]

I wouldn't be mad at the pick. 

[DougDew]

No.  C is more valuable than G, and I had problems picking a C three spots later last year.

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, PrincetonTiger said:

Some were saying that because there were other needs and didn't see a 1st Round C out there

By most analysts he was considered a 1st. rd. pick. 

[SaturdayAllDay]

I think people are underestimating how good being the 15th best player in a draft is. For a reference point, we can look at "draft redos" that put the top players in the first round, and assume that it is an approximate estimation of skill in relation to their draft class (lets say +/- 2 picks due to it being based on team needs). This isnt exactly fool proof or anything, as it is still based on team needs and the +/- could be higher/lower, also a few players have fallen off since the original "redos" were made (Floyd/Warmack for sure). That being said this is readily available data and I dont want to go digging today. Basically using this as an approximate baseline. 

 

Under this assumption, if we got the 15th best player in each of these years it would be one of these

 

2012:  Michael Floyd, Fletcher Cox, Chandler Jones, Whitney Mercilus, Janoris Jenkins

2013: Desmond Trufant, Jamie Collins, Keenan Allen, Chance Warmack, Xavier Rhodes

2014: Kelvin Benjamin, Kyle Fuller, Deone Buchannon, Zack Martin, CJ Mosley

2015: Demarious Randall, Stefon Diggs, Arik Armstead, Kevin Johnson, Brandon Scherff

 

If you are GUARANTEEING me a player of the same caliber as a good chunk of these guys, I am running to that podium to select Lamp. No question. Good chance he gets at least 1 pro bowl during his rookie contract. Even the historically terrible 2013 draft has 3 pro bowlers on this list by the end of their rookie deals. 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You're telling me the posts on Reddit are the same level of draft expert than ESPN,  NFL.com and CBS Sports.com?

 

Really?      Since when?

 

When did Reddit become a go-to source for good NFL draft information.      This is the first I've ever heard of this in my five years on this website.....

 

 

I saw a Kiper mock today with the Colts taking Fournette, McDowell, & Eluemunor with our 1st 3 picks. A RB, an OG that's a total project, & a DL... no LBS or CBs, zero edge guys.

 

It's pretty clear to me at this point that the draft expert guys are just guessing, no different than someone on Reddit who busts out 3 or 4 mocks a day on FanSpeak.

 

 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You're telling me the posts on Reddit are the same level of draft expert than ESPN,  NFL.com and CBS Sports.com?

 

Really?      Since when?

 

When did Reddit become a go-to source for good NFL draft information.      This is the first I've ever heard of this in my five years on this website.....

 

 

Here's a decent example... took me 5 seconds to find this. We've been discussing the draft ad nauseum for months now, and I hadn't seen this stat til just now.

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

19 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Here's a decent example... took me 5 seconds to find this. We've been discussing the draft ad nauseum for months now, and I hadn't seen this stat til just now.

 

 

 

Some good stuff there....

 

But how many of the posts on Reddit are like this,   and how many are not?

 

 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Some good stuff there....

 

But how many of the posts on Reddit are like this,   and how many are not?

 

 

 

By default posts are ranked by the the amount of people responding, so the cream rises to the top so to speak, kind of similar to here. You can choose how posts are arranged too, so if you want the "best" Colts posts from this week, it's very easy.

[Track Guy]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

No trying to be argumentative....

 

But who are Charlie Mann?     Joe Marino?     Ari Hasan?    And Josh Norris?       Who are they?    What are their credentials?       Why should we care what they have to say?

 

Before this moment,   I never heard of them?

 

Can you help me a little here?

 

 

They're various draft guys. Josh Norris is the most famous. He's of rotoworld. 

[AZColt11]

In the OP's scenario, I would.  But let me just say he is the ONLY offensive player I would take that high.

[wig]

6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

That's what people were saying last year about center.

 

Who would you rather have coming into this year, Kelly and Green or a combination like Lawson and Whitehair?

 

I know which I would pick. 

[richard pallo]

8 hours ago, wig said:

 

Who would you rather have coming into this year, Kelly and Green or a combination like Lawson and Whitehair?

 

I know which I would pick. 

We also could have had Kelly and Whitehair.  

[stitches]

 

[funktacious2]

Yes, unless the 12th best player in the draft falls to us, which doesn't seem too implausible.

[ColtsUrUs]

Funny people are stating OG isn't a need. Name the good OG on our team that blocks well enough so Luck won't get killed like he has the passed 2 years.

 

Pick you're poison in football. Protect your franchise QB or build a great defense. Which would you choose since we already have the QB?

[jvan1973]

On 4/20/2017 at 0:26 AM, wig said:

 

Who would you rather have coming into this year, Kelly and Green or a combination like Lawson and Whitehair?

 

I know which I would pick. 

Kelly and Whitehair

[Defjamz26]

On 4/21/2017 at 10:30 AM, stitches said:

 

If he's the pick I'm expecting Conley and Reddick are off the board. That would also mean that Ballard has him more highly rated than guys like Davis, Harris, and Cook who should all conceivably be there at 15. And remember he said if the gap between the BPA and need isn't great they'll go with the need so that'd mean he was head and shoulders better than anyone else in terms of grade.

 

Basically, I'ts like this. I won't be upset if Lamp is the pick. However if any combination of Conley, Reddick, Davis, Cook, Harris, or even McDowell are on the board when he's the pick I'll be a little confused.