Colts offseason discussion / Ballard Grievances (merge)

[AKB]

Just now, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah they depended on a kid who played well the year before to keep playing well.  He didn’t.  It happens to countless players every year regardless of where they were drafted.

yeah i haven't watched close enough to try and pickup on what changed, I think his poor tackling was the first red flag. then he seemed to blow assignments in the red zone when things became more compressed. From then on it just seemed like he went down hill.. closer to the expectation for a 7th rounder rather than the solid play we got for the first 5-7 games or whatever it was. 

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah they depended on a kid who played well the year before to keep playing well.  He didn’t.  It happens to countless players every year regardless of where they were drafted.

And, IIRC, Thomas was a 7th rounder?  Have to figure his rookie play might not be sustainable.

[AKB]

Just now, DougDew said:

And, IIRC, Thomas was a 7th rounder?  Have to figure his rookie play might not be sustainable.

hopefully ballard doesn't make the same mistake with Jones. also, a 7th rounder

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, AKB said:

yeah i haven't watched close enough to try and pickup on what changed, I think his poor tackling was the first red flag. then he seemed to blow assignments in the red zone when things became more compressed. From then on it just seemed like he went down hill.. closer to the expectation for a 7th rounder rather than the solid play we got for the first 5-7 games or whatever it was. 

I also think teams had a season of film on him to prepare for him and figure out how to attack him vs him being a virtual unknown.

[richard pallo]

20 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

What's going on? Have you thought of a deal for Justin Jefferson yet?

Yep.  Our 1st rd pick and Pierce.  

[DougDew]

Just now, AKB said:

hopefully ballard doesn't make the same mistake with Jones. also, a 7th rounder

Agreed.  Mild counterpoints:  I think FS is left a bit on an island more than a zone corner...but there are nuances to that.  And Jones was projected by some to be as a high as a 3rd rounder, so he...on paper...could project to have much more potential than Thomas, who I don't think was even expected to be drafted 

[AKB]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

I also think teams had a season of film on him to prepare for him and figure out how to attack him vs him being a virtual unknown.

its just odd how quick he fell off. doesn't seem like his responsibilities changed much, I mean they had him in deep middle third. football 101 says be the deepst man on the field when playing middle third. 

 

I just don't know why he fell off so bad. He has the physical traits, and should have a good mind on him. 

[runthepost]

Just now, richard pallo said:

Yep.  Our 1st rd pick and Pierce.  

Wouldn’t even be close to a deal. More like 2 first, a second and Pierce

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Yep.  Our 1st rd pick and Pierce.  

Yeah they will laugh you off the phone.  Pierce has no trade value.

[NewColtsFan]

22 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

https://atozsports.com/indianapolis/colts-trade-stalled-chiefs-cb-sneed-contract-offer/
 

4 years 80 mil, 58 guaranteed 

 

would you do it? 

An easy no for me.   Especially at that price. 

[richard pallo]

22 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

https://atozsports.com/indianapolis/colts-trade-stalled-chiefs-cb-sneed-contract-offer/
 

4 years 80 mil, 58 guaranteed 

 

would you do it? 

Yes.  No problem.

[hoosierhawk]

2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think most colt fans would rather have a great safety or corner then a backup DT.

So the choice is a great safety or corner or a backup DT? I would say 99.9% of Colt fans would want that. Are you saying all things being equal Ballard chose a backup DT over a great safety or corner? He had that choice? 

[AKB]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Agreed.  Mild counterpoints:  I think FS is left a bit on an island more than a zone corner...but there are nuances to that.  And Jones was projected by some to be as a high as a 3rd rounder, so he...on paper...could project to have much more potential than Thomas, who I don't think was even expected to be drafted 

yes, i agree, because that middle third safety should always be over top giving them the corner the ability to shade to give us the advantage. there were quite a few plays where opposing offenses abused the technique our corners played in to throw inside the grain of whichever direction they shaded. 

 

this also goes hand in hand with the pressure rate vs blitz that I think people don't necessarily take to mind. the pressure rate is low because we send 4, so the sack percentage and pressure rate aren't positively correlated due to our sacks just being successful pressures that converted to sacks. But when we don't get the pressure, our corners and their shade get exposed. 

 

The technique the corners play within this system is predictable. So you need sound, responsible, disciplined players in this system. You almost have to play mistake-free and you are essentially waiting for the offensive mistake. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Yes.  No problem.

You don’t even know what the trade compensation would have to be?   

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, hoosierhawk said:

So the choice is a great safety or corner or a backup DT? I would say 99.9% of Colt fans would want that. Are you saying all things being equal Ballard chose a backup DT over a great safety or corner? He had that choice? 

Yeah some people don’t really get that if you sign one player it doesn’t normally mean you choose that player over another position.  The Colts need d-line depth regardless of what they do in the secondary.  It was a need too.  

[VikingsFanInChennai]

6 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Yep.  Our 1st rd pick and Pierce.  

Pierce doesn't get open (I mean, the offer) 

 

Even if he's open always, he's invisible in the offer sheet 

[AKB]

Just now, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Pierce doesn't get open (I mean, the offer) 

 

Even if he's open always, he's invisible in the offer sheet 

on film,. pierce gets open. 

 

it'll be interesting to see what a more accurate deep passer will do for pierce and his numbers

[Dobbinblitz]

Although not the same scenario or circumstance, this waiting-out of the sneed situation feels like the Lamar Jackson watch of last year.  Not leveraging free agency for even depth purposes  almost guarantees the team has late round draft picks or UFA's very high up in the depth chart and forced into action at key positions for long periods due to injury or lack of true starter talent.

The one departure from this is we can count on having DL depth. This cycle seems to continue to play out. I expect Ballard will have another excellent draft from a value perspective.  Then we will begin the discussions of needing to add offensive/defensive difference makers at key skill position; while hoping to fill some positions with value post June cuts from other teams . True to form the Colts have resigned their own (Which is a good thing.) , but have we gained ground in our own division, This holy grail blueprint seems set in stone never to be reevaluated, but yields in the hunt for a division title results.

[richard pallo]

2 minutes ago, runthepost said:

Wouldn’t even be close to a deal. More like 2 first, a second and Pierce

I think they need another 1st to get their quarterback.  Ours is perfect.  I don’t think they will demand a lot.  Only one 1st from us.  We can backfill from there.

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, AKB said:

on film,. pierce gets open. 

 

it'll be interesting to see what a more accurate deep passer will do for pierce and his numbers

Until he does though he has no trade value, or at least no more than sixth or seventh rounder.  A team would be taking a flyer on him at this point and that’s what you get for guys teams take a flyer on.  Pierce best value is to the Colts and seeing if playing with a QB with a big arm does indeed lead to him breaking out like some think it will.  

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You don’t even know what the trade compensation would have to be?   

The question didn’t ask about trade compensation.  The question was about the value of his contract.

[runthepost]

Just now, richard pallo said:

I think they need another 1st to get their quarterback.  Ours is perfect.  I don’t think they will demand a lot.  Only one 1st from us.  We can backfill from there.

Jefferson trade value is a minimum of 2 first round picks. He played in 9 games this year and still had over 1000 yards

[stitches]

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

Good for HOU.  They probably have enough good talent needing to be absorbed already (QB, LT, and 2 EDGES) and will now have more picks to fill support positions and depth.

Does he play RT or LT?   I thought he washed as a LT, but maybe not.

He was second team all pro LT in 2022. He's been very good to great for the last 3 years. 

[AKB]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Until he does though he has no trade value, or at least no more than sixth or seventh rounder.  A team would be taking a flyer on him at this point and that’s what you get for guys teams take a flyer on.  Pierce best value is to the Colts and seeing if playing with a QB with a big arm does indeed lead to him breaking out like some think it will.  

you're not wrong. if we are gonna trade pierce it should be after he has better stats 

Just now, runthepost said:

Jefferson trade value is a minimum of 2 first round picks. He played in 9 games this year and still had over 1000 yards

we cannot afford jefferson, realistically. 

 

the only way we could maybe do it is by trading pittman, plus another B range player, and probably still a first rounder included

[NewColtsFan]

Just now, richard pallo said:

The question didn’t ask about trade compensation.  The question was about the value of his contract.

I understand that.   The article didn’t even address the compensation aspect.   Honestly, I don’t think it was a very good article.   But that may be just me. 

[GoColts8818]

Just now, AKB said:

you're not wrong. if we are gonna trade pierce it should be after he has better stats 

Yeah, but odds are if he has better stats he will be being the Colts other WR people feel they need so why trade him if he’s filling the need you want to get?

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

Pierce doesn't get open (I mean, the offer) 

 

Even if he's open always, he's invisible in the offer sheet 

Just giving them a receiver to help with the loss of a receiver.  He’s still a former 2nd rd pick who is one of our starters.

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Just giving them a receiver to help with the loss of a receiver.  He’s still a former 2nd rd pick who is one of our starters.

No one cares about that after you are drafted.  They care about your production which he doesn’t have.

[AKB]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah, but odds are if he has better stats he will be being the Colts other WR people feel they need so why trade him if he’s filling the need you want to get?

depends on the contract situation. you saw the Higgins situation with Cincinnati, sometimes it comes down to the cap. now of course Pierce is nowhere near that level yet, but theoretically, that's where people want our 2 to be, at about a higgins level. so if he does get there, it could come down to a numbers game

 

my philosophy is if you know you can't resign a player, get the trade value you can, unless their on-field value makes more sense at the time, like maybe for a playoff push if trading hurts you

 

but sometimes taking BPA it comes down to adding value to the player and trading them out. like later QBs are a good example of this, Howell being the most recent. We spent a 2nd rounder on Pierce, so you're most likely correct in that the best chance we have at getting a ROI is to let him play, and hope he can be a good outside WR to match with our slot guy, and our WR1 in pittman

[GoColts8818]

4 minutes ago, AKB said:

you're not wrong. if we are gonna trade pierce it should be after he has better stats 

we cannot afford jefferson, realistically. 

 

the only way we could maybe do it is by trading pittman, plus another B range player, and probably still a first rounder included

Yeah the Colts made their big pay day at WR with Pittman.  If you are hoping for someone to be better than him you are going to count a rookie draft pick which will take a little time to develop or Downs or Pierce having a major break out season.

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

No one cares about that after you are drafted.  They care about your production which he doesn’t have.

Maybe there’s a reason why.

[w87r]

For anyone interested, I posted this in the salary cap thread as well for easy access.

 

Salary Update:

 

These were my cap hit projections, some have come back.

 

Players name with cap increase from current listed Cap Hit(actual cap hit addition)

 

Franklin +$3m

Moore +$7m (+$6.1m)

Flacco +$3.6m

Sanchez +$1.6m

Harrison +1m

Sermon - minimum (+$140k)

Avery - minimum 

 

 

 

Pittman -$3m (-$3.82m)

 

 

 

Still waiting on updates on the ones without ( )

 

Cap Hit includes players dropping from top 51 in correspondence to the signing.

 

+$9.3m in addition salaries still to be updated, by my projections.

 

 

So I will say my new salary cap projections after these updates is:

 

 

Spotrac - **$21m

OtC - **$20.2m

 

 

**My projection on outstanding updates to contracts, based off of current listed cap space on those sites.

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, AKB said:

depends on the contract situation. you saw the Higgins situation with Cincinnati, sometimes it comes down to the cap. now of course Pierce is nowhere near that level yet, but theoretically, that's where people want our 2 to be, at about a higgins level. so if he does get there, it could come down to a numbers game

 

my philosophy is if you know you can't resign a player, get the trade value you can, unless their on-field value makes more sense at the time, like maybe for a playoff push if trading hurts you

 

but sometimes taking BPA it comes down to adding value to the player and trading them out. like later QBs are a good example of this, Howell being the most recent. We spent a 2nd rounder on Pierce, so you're most likely correct in that the best chance we have at getting a ROI is to let him play, and hope he can be a good outside WR to match with our slot guy, and our WR1 in pittman

Yeah but the Colts have two years before they have to worry about that.  So if they trade him it will be next off-season or next season which was maybe your point all along, I was talking about him from a perspective of this season alone.

[AKB]

Just now, w87r said:

For anyone interested, I posted this in the salary cap thread as well for easy access.

 

Salary Update:

 

These were my cap hit projections, some have come back.

 

Players name with cap increase from current listed Cap Hit(actual cap hit addition)

 

Franklin +$3m

Moore +$7m (-$6.1m)

Flacco +$3.6m

Sanchez +$1.6m

Harrison +1m

Sermon - minimum (+$140k)

Avery - minimum 

 

 

 

Pittman -$3m (-$3.82m)

 

 

 

Still waiting on updates on the ones without ( )

 

Cap Hit includes players dropping from top 51 in correspondence to the signing.

 

+$9.3m in addition salaries still to be updated, by my projections.

 

 

So I will say my new salary cap projections after these updates is:

 

 

Spotrac - **$21m

OtC - **$20.2m

 

 

**My projection on outstanding updates to contracts, based off of current listed cap space on those sites.

so we will almost be guaranteed to do some restructuring if we do get a big name guy ?

[stitches]

 

[Iron Colt]

We need to resign Pinter.

[AKB]

Just now, Iron Colt said:

We need to resign Pinter.

we need to? 

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Maybe there’s a reason why.

Maybe there is but no team is going to give you something of value for him until he proves the problem is the QB and not him and it’s not just a theory anymore.  Right now his max value is a 7th rounder maybe a 6th if you are lucky.  He’s not some trade peace that’s going to off-set another high draft pick in a trade.  He’s a throw in to get a close trade over the top.  A 1st alone for Jefferson is not going to be a close trade for the Vikings.

Just now, Iron Colt said:

We need to resign Pinter.

I am a Ball State grad who wants to see a fellow Cardinal make it in the NFL but why?

[Colt Overseas]

Shaping up to be like most other off-season under Ballard. Re-sign our own, few mid-tier and min vet signings. Build through the draft. Maybe this year we make the playoffs. But if not, and we have the same issues as last season, you’d have to think where we’re going with Ballard and his roster construction philosophy.

[DougDew]

22 minutes ago, AKB said:

yes, i agree, because that middle third safety should always be over top giving them the corner the ability to shade to give us the advantage. there were quite a few plays where opposing offenses abused the technique our corners played in to throw inside the grain of whichever direction they shaded. 

 

this also goes hand in hand with the pressure rate vs blitz that I think people don't necessarily take to mind. the pressure rate is low because we send 4, so the sack percentage and pressure rate aren't positively correlated due to our sacks just being successful pressures that converted to sacks. But when we don't get the pressure, our corners and their shade get exposed. 

 

The technique the corners play within this system is predictable. So you need sound, responsible, disciplined players in this system. You almost have to play mistake-free and you are essentially waiting for the offensive mistake. 

The way I would describe it is that the zone corner has fewer responsibilities but must do those few things well, whereas the FS has many more responsibilities, and much more potential to be completely miffed and find himself in the wrong place or slow to get to the right place.  Athletic limitations also contributing to that.

 

With the capital needed to land Sneed that's being talked about above, I think I would still roll with our "ceiling" corners at this point and concentrate in bringing in a FS that would be ...much less wrong...than Thomas was last year.

 

But, Gus will play man-coverage too so Sneed would certainly help there.