Let’s talk Drafting Receivers In the Draft

[Solid84]

2 hours ago, ProblChld32 said:

Ty did just fine, be smart and protect your body. 

Ty was 20 lbs heavier than Worthy. 

[MikeCurtis]

12 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Pittman for less than 20m a year I would be shocked if that happens.  I think we are going to be surprised when FA start signing their new contracts.  I’m hoping they sign him too but if we have to tag him it should be the transition tag.  I don’t think Pittman will get the big number he’s looking for so if he signs an offer sheet I think Ballard will match it.

You make great points, but I think they could actually structure the bonus portion (Put some in future years) and the cap hit this year could actually "look" like 20M

 

Other teams kick the can down the road on expenses (Ahem....  Our Govt, R and D)

 

You could make it 'look' lower

 

 

 

 

 

[chad72]

4 hours ago, Solid84 said:

Ty was 20 lbs heavier than Worthy. 

 

Xavier Worthy reminds folks of Tank Dell that Houston got, definitely a blazer but the size has to be worked around. He got banged up easily doing run blocking and went out for the season, had other injuries too. There are things you just can't do with WRs that size, so we have to consider that if you are going to use them for lots of downs. That is why they waited till Round 3 to get Josh Downs. If you have good outside WRs and don't need another one but want to add a little explosive element for a few downs, Worthy can be that guy. It is too much of a chance to take assuming Pierce will work out great to not get another WR that can play X and Z.

[Solid84]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Xavier Worthy reminds folks of Tank Dell that Houston got, definitely a blazer but the size has to be worked around. He got banged up easily doing run blocking and went out for the season, had other injuries too. There are things you just can't do with WRs that size, so we have to consider that if you are going to use them for lots of downs. That is why they waited till Round 3 to get Josh Downs. If you have good outside WRs and don't need another one but want to add a little explosive element for a few downs, Worthy can be that guy. It is too much of a chance to take assuming Pierce will work out great to not get another WR that can play X and Z.

I agree we need competition in the WR room, but having Downs and Worthy on the field at the same time means downfield run blocking takes a hit. I think that would put extra pressure on Pittman to block and in a way telegraph what we’re doing. 

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I agree we need competition in the WR room, but having Downs and Worthy on the field at the same time means downfield run blocking takes a hit. I think that would put extra pressure on Pittman to block and in a way telegraph what we’re doing. 

 

That is why the more I think of it, if we don't get Brian Thomas Jr., it will probably be a guy with decent size like Adonai Mitchell or DeVontez Walker (depends on combine and private workouts) that can play both X and Z and be on the field for more downs, that can be used for different downs for different purposes, whether as breathers for Pierce or Pittman or actual 3 or 4 WR formations. Plus, if one of Pierce or Pittman misses a game, we won't miss a beat in terms of downs or formations.

[chad72]

Watch this guy - he is a very good returner and would make a great pick up for us in Round 4:

 

 

 

Ainias Smith played good competition too. Give him a good QB and he will be extremely productive, IMO.

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

You make great points, but I think they could actually structure the bonus portion (Put some in future years) and the cap hit this year could actually "look" like 20M

 

Other teams kick the can down the road on expenses (Ahem....  Our Govt, R and D)

 

You could make it 'look' lower

 

 

 

 

 

I agree.  I think what you suggest happens all the time.  I don’t expect Pittman’s cap hit to be anywhere near $20m if he signs an extension.  For a couple of years actually.  The only way he will count $20m against the cap is if he plays under the tag.  That’s why it’s advantageous to get an extension.  You have more cap space to work with.  

[KB]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Watch this guy - he is a very good returner and would make a great pick up for us in Round 4:

 

 

 

Ainias Smith played good competition too. Give him a good QB and he will be extremely productive, IMO.

How many broken tackles were in that video? Lol. He would make a great 1 2 with Taylor.

[MikeCurtis]

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

That is why the more I think of it, if we don't get Brian Thomas Jr., it will probably be a guy with decent size like Adonai Mitchell or DeVontez Walker (depends on combine and private workouts) that can play both X and Z and be on the field for more downs, that can be used for different downs for different purposes, whether as breathers for Pierce or Pittman or actual 3 or 4 WR formations. Plus, if one of Pierce or Pittman misses a game, we won't miss a beat in terms of downs or formations.

I would be happy to use pick 15 to trade back a few spots and THEN pick up Mitchell or Thomas

 

Either would be a great pick up at 20-25

 

Walker might still be there in mid round 3

 

I would LOVE to have 2 2nd round picks in this draft after drafting Mitchell or Thomas

 

We could get a safety like Tyler Nubin AND TJ Tampa at CB

 

THEN in round 3 there are some excellent LBs that could be drafted

 

TJ Tampa and Nubin BOTH are stars in a zone defense

 

Both can tackle and support the pass

 

 

3 new starters from our first 3 picks.......

 

 

 

 

 

[Chucklez]

On 2/21/2024 at 9:44 PM, chad72 said:

 

 

Adonai Mitchell 1.1% drop rate. Wow!!! Ladd McConkey runs great routes.

 

 

 

Based on this, guys, Brian Thomas Jr. at #15, I will not complain whatsoever  

It ws 1.7% drop rate, which is still amazing.
We took Josh Downs last year who only had a 2% drop rate for his draft.

[chad72]

3 hours ago, Chucklez said:

It ws 1.7% drop rate, which is still amazing.

We took Josh Downs last year who only had a 2% drop rate for his draft.

I do think we need to take into consideration what kind of routes they were asked to run and it’s sometimes hard to compare someone running deeper routes most of the time to someone running underneath most of the time.

 

I do wonder if there’s an average yards per target metric available for college WRs.

 

@stitches @Ohio Colt ??

[ProblChld32]

On 2/22/2024 at 4:16 AM, Solid84 said:

Ty was 20 lbs heavier than Worthy. 

You missed the point, protect your body and you will be just fine. He doesn’t need to take unnecessary hits. If you need a first down or the game is on the line then yes put your body on the line, otherwise just go down or get out of bounds.

[Solid84]

9 minutes ago, ProblChld32 said:

You missed the point, protect your body and you will be just fine. He doesn’t need to take unnecessary hits. If you need a first down or the game is on the line then yes put your body on the line, otherwise just go down or get out of bounds.

No I get it, but Worthy might be the lightest non-ST’er ever. 

[stitches]

3 hours ago, chad72 said:

I do think we need to take into consideration what kind of routes they were asked to run and it’s sometimes hard to compare someone running deeper routes most of the time to someone running underneath most of the time.

 

I do wonder if there’s an average yards per target metric available for college WRs.

 

@stitches @Ohio Colt ??

There are yards per reception stats. Not sure if there are yards per target. 

[Superman]

On 2/21/2024 at 7:24 AM, chad72 said:

 

I agree but knowing Ballard, he didn't even move up for the most important position on the roster, QB, and stood pat at No.4 and got AR. Unless the leopard changes its spots, he is not moving up for a WR, just don't see it.

 

I don't think he's moving up either, but I think he just trusted his judgment on Richardson. The staff had done their work, they knew Richardson would be there at #4, and it worked out.

 

And even though I don't see them moving back into the first round for a second bite this year, I wouldn't mind it. Let's say your guy Chop Robinson is there at #15 -- I'm not fully sold on him, but he definitely seems like a Ballard prospect -- it would make sense that he'd be the pick. And then if Brian Thomas is still available at #25, and they have a shot to move up, I think they should. But that's because I think they need to take a big step forward in roster quality this year. I don't think Ballard and Co. are necessarily going to approach this offseason the way that I think they should.

[NorthernColt]

I like the depth with Wr this year. No need to draft a WR in the 1st thing year, unless an Odunze or Nabers dropped to our pick, which likely won't happen.

[richard pallo]

I don’t think the Colts will sign Williams or Evans in FA too expensive.  But Ridley, Davis and Mooney are on the radar I’m guessing.  If we sign one of those three I don’t see a WR with our 1st pick.  Any one of those three would be a great get imo.

[John Hammonds]

I will be at the Combine on Saturday, watching the WR's and TE's!

[Solid84]

13 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

I will be at the Combine on Saturday, watching the WR's and TE's!

Let us know your opinion on the prospects! 

[Yoshinator]

49 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

I will be at the Combine on Saturday, watching the WR's and TE's!

Nice! Have fun, and looking forward to hearing what you see!

[MikeCurtis]

1 hour ago, John Hammonds said:

I will be at the Combine on Saturday, watching the WR's and TE's!

Tell us what you think of Sanders TE

[MFT5]

was just having conversation about trading w pats to get Marvin Harrison Jr. realistically what do yu think it would take to get their pick ?? i think the trajectory of the pats and colts and trade between the 2 teams actually makes a lot of sense, depending on what we could send their way

[Defjamz26]

9 hours ago, MFT5 said:

was just having conversation about trading w pats to get Marvin Harrison Jr. realistically what do yu think it would take to get their pick ?? i think the trajectory of the pats and colts and trade between the 2 teams actually makes a lot of sense, depending on what we could send their way

At least 2 first round picks, a player, and a day two pick this year and next.

 

So:

2024 pick 15

2025 1st round pick 

 2024 3rd round pick 

 2025 2nd round pick

[Dark Superman]

On 2/19/2024 at 7:12 PM, Boss7894 said:

If this thread is somewhere else I apologize… but feel free to talk about this wide receiver draft class… has anybody here watched them? Are there any quick twitched wide receivers like #1 (correct me if I’m wrong) for the Jaguars? If so, who? He was “more slippery than a rain drop”!

How are you a Colts fan and not know Travis Etienne is an RB for a division opponent?

[MFT5]

22 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

At least 2 first round picks, a player, and a day two pick this year and next.

 

So:

2024 pick 15

2025 1st round pick 

 2024 3rd round pick 

 2025 2nd round pick

 

yea that’s what i suggested 

this & next years 1st

those day 2 pics & alec pierce 

 

honestly i’m ok w that … MHJ is the 1 & downs as our 3 w/ him & pittman is tuff. 

 

… his injury history does concern me, but im risking it 

[MikeCurtis]

On 2/23/2024 at 6:51 PM, MFT5 said:

was just having conversation about trading w pats to get Marvin Harrison Jr. realistically what do yu think it would take to get their pick ?? i think the trajectory of the pats and colts and trade between the 2 teams actually makes a lot of sense, depending on what we could send their way

It would take 2 1s and maybe a player

 

I TRULY hope that we dont do that trade.....

 

Harrison is amazing but, if I am CB, I am ONLY trading up to get a generational QB or DE

 

We have our QB of the future (I believe) and I dont see a cant miss DE in this draft.

 

This draft is really strong with excellent WRs

 

We can a day one contributor at our pick at 15 though I hope we go DE

Or more probable, we trade 15 (Maybe twice) to get more 2nd round picks or late 1 picks

 

If we have traded back 1 or more times I am GLADLY running up to take AD Mitchell or Brian Thomas

(Whomever is left) 

 

THEN drafting defense pick after pick

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[rock8591]

On 2/22/2024 at 4:16 AM, Solid84 said:

Ty was 20 lbs heavier than Worthy. 

 

Not sure how?

Worthy listed as 172 lbs, TY at 178.

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy

[Solid84]

9 minutes ago, rock8591 said:

 

Not sure how?

Worthy listed as 172 lbs, TY at 178.

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4683062/xavier-worthy

I've seen Worthy listed at 163/164 and Hilton at 183. Guess we'll see at the combine, but my guess is he'll put on a few pounds for the weigh in.

 

https://247sports.com/player/xavier-worthy-46085856/

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Xavier-Worthy-WR-Texas

Quote

He however has an very obvious downside, in that he is super skinny weighing in at just 163 pounds despite standing 6-1 and this will limit his ability to be a complete player at the next level.

 

[Defjamz26]

Jermaine Burton from Alabama is a guy that seems ranked really low but would be an ideal target in the 2nd round. He’s listed at 6’0” and 190, but he’s a big play machine. He is 2nd in the class with and average of 20.5 YPR. He’s 2nd only to Javon Baker who averages 21 YPR. He’s got great route running and legit deep speed.  56% win rate on contested catches too.

 

[Solid84]

5 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Jermaine Burton from Alabama is a guy that seems ranked really low but would be an ideal target in the 2nd round. He’s listed at 6’0” and 190, but he’s a big play machine. He is 2nd in the class with and average of 20.5 YPR. He’s 2nd only to Javon Baker who averages 21 YPR. He’s got great route running and legit deep speed.  56% win rate on contested catches too.

 

He looks like a legit option, but I’m pretty sure I’ve read somewhere there are some character concerns with him. 

[Defjamz26]

3 hours ago, Solid84 said:

He looks like a legit option, but I’m pretty sure I’ve read somewhere there are some character concerns with him. 

All I saw was that he was super indecisive in high school as he transferred twice and kept changing his commitment. Then when he was with Bama in 2022, he shoved some woman after the Tennessee loss who was trying to film him, but Saban said there was a deeper story to that.

[MikeCurtis]

7 hours ago, Solid84 said:

He looks like a legit option, but I’m pretty sure I’ve read somewhere there are some character concerns with him. 

That what has been written about. On the surface, not a CB pick

[chad72]

 

 

 

 

Summary of Steve Smith's video evaluation, take it for what it is worth:

 

Rome Odunze - didn’t play a lot of great competition

Keon Coleman - “does some good things but not gonna tip my hat”

Adonai Mitchell - 90% body catcher according to Steve smith and quotes “I’m just saying” (Mitchell gets to the spots ahead of the DB because he can separate in college but if he is not going to go for the ball with his hands and that split second in the NFL will result in more incomplete catches)

Xavier Legette- Steve Smith thinks he’s DK Metcalf 2.0

Xavier Worthy - taller Tank Dell

Jalyn Polk- just a dawg

Ladd Mcconkey - really good really savvy

Brian Thomas Jr- growing on him

Malachi Corley - Steal of draft

Troy Franklin - comp : Jordan Addison

Johnny Wilson - not a good multi tasker (doesn’t like him much)

Brenden Rice- comp : Isaiah Pacheco lol 😂 thinks he’s a maniac

Devontez walker - fast but needs to work on catching ball better

Tory Horton - thinks his stock will go up

Roman Wilson - also going up and impressed with him

Ricky Pearsall- stock rising

Javon Baker- too much at the line just go

Jha’Quan Jackson - likes him sparked some interest in Steve

 

 

[Defjamz26]

Brian Thomas Jr. come on down!

[chad72]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:09 PM, Defjamz26 said:

Brian Thomas Jr. come on down!

 

...or they could be saying this so that if Bowers keeps dropping, teams are more likely to focus on other WRs and CBs??

[Boss7894]

Bumping just in case someone hasn’t seen this yet and want to chime in

[coltsfanej]

I would prefer going CB maybe edge if one falls in first and waiting until 2-3rd for a WR because of the crazy depth this draft at WR. 
 

The guy that makes the most sense imo is Ricky Pearsall.

 

size: 6’1 190- great complement to what we got

speed: 4.4 40yd- good speed

athleticism: 9.78 RAS- fits Ballard’s type

 

senior bowl performance- fits Ballard

history with AR already- flattens the learning curve. 

 

they may have their eye on a guy with more of a #1 alpha upside instead, but if they are good with adding another solid guy for a well balanced stable of receivers then I would think Pearsall checks a lot of the boxes they are looking for. 

[twfish]

I think a lot of people are pushing Brian Thomas to the Colts. However he is kind of in the same mold of AP. Thing is with AP he has been doing all of the dirty work and down field blocking without complaining at all. Would Thomas really do that much more for when we already arent utilizing our deep field guy?

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, twfish said:

I think a lot of people are pushing Brian Thomas to the Colts. However he is kind of in the same mold of AP. Thing is with AP he has been doing all of the dirty work and down field blocking without complaining at all. Would Thomas really do that much more for when we already aren't utilizing our deep field guy?

 

Do you think with AR as QB, we underutilize AP much? Brian Thomas has run a more varied route tree than AP coming out of college against the best competition. The reason he is the 4th WR is that he has been locked down by press CBs like the 2 first round CBs Arnold and Kool-Aid more often than not. Heck, even Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne were locked up by Darelle Revis but they were worthy enough of being played by the best to begin with.

 

TDs in spades, that is what Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell bring to the table. Mitchell played 2 years at Georgia and 1 year at Texas, he is more seasoned than Brian Thomas Jr. if you were to ask my honest opinion, so I wouldn't complain about him. There is however 1 WR that has given fits to every 1st round CB he has gone against, that is Ladd McConkey with his route running. So, if Ballard were to move back and get one of Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell or Ladd McConkey, I am not complaining, each one brings a lot of strengths to the table and the rest is up to Reggie Wayne to coach up.

[twfish]

4 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Do you think with AR as QB, we underutilize AP much? Brian Thomas has run a more varied route tree than AP coming out of college against the best competition. The reason he is the 4th WR is that he has been locked down by press CBs like the 2 first round CBs Arnold and Kool-Aid more often than not. Heck, even Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne were locked up by Darelle Revis but they were worthy enough of being played by the best to begin with.

 

TDs in spades, that is what Brian Thomas Jr. and Adonai Mitchell bring to the table. Mitchell played 2 years at Georgia and 1 year at Texas, he is more seasoned than Brian Thomas Jr. if you were to ask my honest opinion, so I wouldn't complain about him. There is however 1 WR that has given fits to every 1st round CB he has gone against, that is Ladd McConkey with his route running. So, if Ballard were to move back and get one of Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell or Ladd McConkey, I am not complaining, each one brings a lot of strengths to the table and the rest is up to Reggie Wayne to coach up.

FWIW I was actually asking the question, not being passive aggressive. I’ve watched the least amount of film this year than I have in 10 years. Mainly listening to podcast lately so I haven’t been able to watch any of the WR aside from what I saw this past fall. I do believe AR will push the ball down the field much more frequently, I feel that even when AR was on the field he was still held back from throwing the deep ball by Shane. 
 

MHJ or Nabers would absolutely be the missing piece. The rest seem to have glaring weaknesses. Mitchell seems like who I would prefer but the way he left Georgia could be of concern? I really need to sit down and watch tape though.