Comparing Pittman to other WRs

[AwesomeAustin]

7 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Maybe.   But I wouldn’t bet the house on that.  
 

Pitt’s deal may ultimately hinge on the signing bonus and total guarantees and not the stated value of the deal.  

Yes that can happen. I can also see him signing for less years and wanting more salary as another option. If I were to guess, I think he is willing to stay with the Colts but ultimately wants to play elsewhere so he can expand his brand and have more QB continuity. I think he will demand 25m per bc of that. Last part is just a hunch so absolutely my opinion. 

[IndyColtsFan411]

11 hours ago, masterlock said:

I have to agree with Rick Venturi's assessment of Pittman--he compares to the top Slots and TE's in terms of production. Something around $17M/year sounds right.

This is what I was thinking when compiling the stats for this post.  His average yds/rec seems more like a slot receiver / possession receiver, not a WR1.  I think he's talented and could be better with better QB play, but he seems more like a WR2 to me.  Get an explosive WR in the draft (Naber, MHJ, Odunze, Franklin, Leggette) and Pittman will get more room to operate and hopefully better seperation.

[lollygagger8]

If we had a QB that wore contacts that could actually see the number 14, there would've been more shots down the field when Pierce was wide open. Pittman would in turn benefit from having the safeties clear out. 

 

Pittman is hard as nails. The poor guy hasn't had a legit QB since he came to Indy, so putting those kind of numbers up despite that is impressive. 

 

Pay Pittman, and add another WR that can create separation. 

[KB]

3 hours ago, csmopar said:

My guess is somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 years, 70 million, 35-40 million guaranteed. 
 

 Could see the breakdown as this

 25 million year one, fully guaranteed 

23 million year year two, 10 million guaranteed 

22 million year three. 5 million guaranteed.

 

that’s just above the cap number going into this year and honestly fairly reasonable and slightly above pay grade average  for his current ranking. And gives us a reasonable dead cap hit for our after year two. 

Actually, a front loaded deal, heavy in the front, is probably a good idea. Maybe make some goals like "have x amount of big plays. X for YPC"

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

47 minutes ago, lollygagger8 said:

If we had a QB that wore contacts that could actually see the number 14, there would've been more shots down the field when Pierce was wide open. Pittman would in turn benefit from having the safeties clear out. 

 

Pittman is hard as nails. The poor guy hasn't had a legit QB since he came to Indy, so putting those kind of numbers up despite that is impressive. 

 

Pay Pittman, and add another WR that can create separation. 

The counter to that is if we did have a QB that threw downfield Alec might not be that wide open. They kind of left him wide open because they knew Minshew wouldn’t throw. But if that is the case that leaves underneath stuff and run game open. It’s all good. Alec I am beginning to think need to be 4th WR until he is more well rounded and can do more then a go route.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Yes that can happen. I can also see him signing for less years and wanting more salary as another option. If I were to guess, I think he is willing to stay with the Colts but ultimately wants to play elsewhere so he can expand his brand and have more QB continuity. I think he will demand 25m per bc of that. Last part is just a hunch so absolutely my opinion. 

He could want less years so he becomes a FA again before 30 and he gets another pay day.

[DougDew]

The traditional definition of a "WR#1" includes the ability to take the top off of a defense.  Maybe not blowing the defense away, but take the top off. 

 

In his recent presser, Ballard said that taking the top off, stretching the field, is what AP can do.  Its why AP was drafted.  IIRC, Ballard has never said that about Pittman.  Its doubtful that Ballard thinks that Pitt is a traditional "WR#1". 

[KB]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

The traditional definition of a "WR#1" includes the ability to take the top off of a defense.  Maybe not blowing the defense away, but take the top off. 

 

In his recent presser, Ballard said that taking the top off, stretching the field, is what AP can do.  Its why AP was drafted.  IIRC, Ballard has never said that about Pittman.  Its doubtful that Ballard thinks that Pitt is a traditional "WR#1". 

What is a WR #1? What is this traditional definition?

 

Pittman is a quality X/ possessions receiver. While you would like that to be your second or third beat receiver, he is our first best.

 

What everyone is saying they want is an elite receiver, but they want to work around ithw words saying "WR1". WR1 is a roster spot, not a role.

[GoColts8818]

37 minutes ago, KB said:

What is a WR #1? What is this traditional definition?

 

Pittman is a quality X/ possessions receiver. While you would like that to be your second or third beat receiver, he is our first best.

 

What everyone is saying they want is an elite receiver, but they want to work around ithw words saying "WR1". WR1 is a roster spot, not a role.

There isn’t one.  It’s all opinion based which is why I said a while back call Pittman what you want he’s going to get paid by someone.

[Defjamz26]

#82 in yards per reception is the one that sticks out. The other is #5 in receptions. If you look at Nico Collins who is listed two spots above him, he has more yards with a higher YPR on 29 less catches. 29!!! It’s easy to blame QB play, but Pittman is 5th in receptions which means the QB got the ball to him. 109 times to be exact. 
 

i think there’s more than enough evidence to say Pittman is just not an explosive playmaker. A career 10.8 YPR proves that. I’ve never gotten the QB argument. 1,000 with Wentz, 900 with Ryan, and 1,000 with Minshew. They are throwing him the ball. I also can’t think of too many receivers (especially true WR1’s) who had pedestrian stats with a bad QB and then just had an incredible break out with a better QB. Steve Smith had 5 1,000+ yard seasons before Cam ever got to Carolina, and had high YPR in most of them. 
 

Pittman is good but not great. I think the argument that QB play has held him back in his career is a reach by fans. I don’t think his stats would have looked any different if AR started the whole season. If anything Pierce and Downs might have had better seasons.

[lollygagger8]

2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The counter to that is if we did have a QB that threw downfield Alec might not be that wide open. They kind of left him wide open because they knew Minshew wouldn’t throw. But if that is the case that leaves underneath stuff and run game open. It’s all good. Alec I am beginning to think need to be 4th WR until he is more well rounded and can do more then a go route.

 

Agreed on bold. 

 

Pierce ran more yards than any WR in the league this last season....and was open quite a bit, just Minshew wouldn't throw it. Maddening. 

 

I think that would force a lot of 1 on 1's if Richardson was back there who can sling bombs on a rope. Safeties will have to respect both under and over. 

 

It all works out if that happens. 

Pittman is either open underneath, or Pierce is open up top. If both are covered, you know my boy Downs will be open.

 

 

[smittywerb]

18 hours ago, Stephen said:

All we need is to bring Pittman  back and add 1 explosive wr in the first and our offense  would take off

I think our tes are fine we just don't  use them as much as we could

Bingo.  Not only explosive, but has a good route tree.  We don’t need another Pierce.  Think he’s going to improve with AR but the streaks will get old quickly once defenses catch on.

 

We need an at least 6’0” WR that can get open at all levels quickly.  Downs could be that but he doesn’t have the body or measureables to go up and get it.  But that’s ok, we don’t need him to.  
 

Regarding the tight ends, I wouldn’t signing a dependable vet.  Doesn’t have to be a Kelce level type, but someone who can start just in case woods doesn’t play again.  

[Shepman]

I say start by transition tagging him and let the market dictate his contract value.  This gives him an opportunity to see what his $$ value is and we hold the cards.

[smittywerb]

1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Agreed on bold. 

 

Pierce ran more yards than any WR in the league this last season....and was open quite a bit, just Minshew wouldn't throw it. Maddening. 

 

I think that would force a lot of 1 on 1's if Richardson was back there who can sling bombs on a rope. Safeties will have to respect both under and over. 

 

It all works out if that happens. 

Pittman is either open underneath, or Pierce is open up top. If both are covered, you know my boy Downs will be open.

 

 

Ehh I get what you’re saying but all of that crumbles when we play a defense that can apply pressure and get to the QB.

 

We need someone who’s dynamic that can run a lot of routes on the outside to counter the pressure and blitzes.  A streak will take too long for Pierce to get open when AR is being pressured.  Pierce is physically gifted, but he’s not dynamic, at least I haven’t seen it.  Pierce with an elite route tree would be almost Moss-like, but he doesn’t have it.
 

We honestly should look like the bengals offense.  They have their dynamic outside receiver with chase and their intermediate to short outside receiver with Higgins.  We have our Higgins (which I don’t know why some on here want him so bad).  We don’t have our chase.

[lollygagger8]

58 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

Ehh I get what you’re saying but all of that crumbles when we play a defense that can apply pressure and get to the QB.

 

We need someone who’s dynamic that can run a lot of routes on the outside to counter the pressure and blitzes.  A streak will take too long for Pierce to get open when AR is being pressured.  Pierce is physically gifted, but he’s not dynamic, at least I haven’t seen it.  Pierce with an elite route tree would be almost Moss-like, but he doesn’t have it.

 

Throw slants to Pittman or Downs

Screens to Pittman or JT

Run bootlegs 

Throw wheel routes to RBs 

Draw play

Also you have a QB that can run and will make them pay with his legs

 

Many options there

 

I don't disagree about Pierce, but he's open quite a bit and not been thrown to 

[Myles]

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pittmann jump ship for a better option.  

[Mitch Connors]

Pittman is far too good to let go but he is not elite imo. 

 Elite = the defense's best CB and usually additional help from another defender (Jefferson, Hill, Lamb)

 Great = the defense's best CB (Pittman, Wilson, Metcalf)

 

Out of all the WR's on the OP list only about 6-7 are elite the rest are great. If you let Pittman go where are you going to go to upgrade the position? The elite guys aren't free agents, the rest of the other great WRs will command the same money as Pittman, or you draft someone with a premium pick. 

 

Stick with Pittman and hope a quality QB and better players around him will let him be elite.

[DougDew]

5 hours ago, KB said:

What is a WR #1? What is this traditional definition?

 

Pittman is a quality X/ possessions receiver. While you would like that to be your second or third beat receiver, he is our first best.

 

What everyone is saying they want is an elite receiver, but they want to work around ithw words saying "WR1". WR1 is a roster spot, not a role.

#1WR definition is based upon the type of talent possessed by the WR...not really about anecdotal stats produced.

 

If you want to have a playoff team...not just a .500 team...your most talented WR should have the ability to take the top off the defense.  Of course, he can't just do that like AP or even TY, he should have the talent to also run routes and gain FDs.  He should have great hands.  He may have decent YAC.  He may have decent contested catch ability too.

 

Speed, route running, and great hands are fundamental to #1WR.  There may only be 13 or 14 in the entire NFL, but they are probably on the playoff teams.

 

AP has speed, but not the routes or the hands yet.  Pitt has the routes and the hands, and some other things, but not the top end speed.  Because of the lack of top end speed, Pitt should NEVER be thought of having #1WR talent.  He's a #2 in terms of the things he can do....limited in being the home run threat (but he does it when things break correctly).

 

The stuff about targets or catches or yards,, etc...is just anecdotal function of the team he's on and being the only real option.

 

The Colts do not have a #1WR talent, and, they haven't been in the playoffs in a while. They should get one regardless of what they do with Pitt, IMO. 

[rockywoj]

I would say, looking at the stats, both this year and his career up to now, it would be fair to argue he falls in the top 10 to 20 range.  With a good big play QB and improving offensive scheme, can he rise to inside the top 10?  Lack of TD production is definitely a drag, imho.  I hope he and his agent have realistic expectation of where his salary ought to slot in.

[Superman]

3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’ve never gotten the QB argument. 1,000 with Wentz, 900 with Ryan, and 1,000 with Minshew. They are throwing him the ball.

 

I don't understand how you say you don't get the QB argument, and then list three QBs who weren't very good with the Colts. Wentz was the best of the three, and there's a notable difference between Pittman's YPC in 2021 and his YPC in 2023. 

 

If we had Dak Prescott instead of Gardner Minshew, you don't think Pittman's YPC would be notably higher?

 

Do you think that Garrett Wilson would have had more than 11 yards/catch if Aaron Rodgers was healthy? 

 

I don't think Pittman will ever be a 1,500 yard, 16 yards/catch receiver, and he's definitely not the prototype that comes to mind when talking about true #1 WRs. But I think it's a mistake to hold his career yards/catch stat over his head without acknowledging that he's played with bad/inefficient QBs for most of his career. Yet, you seem to want to reduce his entire career down to that one stat.

[KB]

17 minutes ago, DougDew said:

#1WR definition is based upon the type of talent possessed by the WR...not really about anecdotal stats produced.

 

If you want to have a playoff team...not just a .500 team...your most talented WR should have the ability to take the top off the defense.  Of course, he can't just do that like AP or even TY, he should have the talent to also run routes and gain FDs.  He should have great hands.  He may have decent YAC.  He may have decent contested catch ability too.

 

Speed, route running, and great hands are fundamental to #1WR.  There may only be 13 or 14 in the entire NFL, but they are probably on the playoff teams.

 

AP has speed, but not the routes or the hands yet.  Pitt has the routes and the hands, and some other things, but not the top end speed.  Because of the lack of top end speed, Pitt should NEVER be thought of having #1WR talent.  He's a #2 in terms of the things he can do....limited in being the home run threat (but he does it when things break correctly).

 

The stuff about targets or catches or yards,, etc...is just anecdotal function of the team he's on and being the only real option.

 

The Colts do not have a #1WR talent, and, they haven't been in the playoffs in a while. They should get one regardless of what they do with Pitt, IMO. 

I can agree with this for the most part. A high quality Z is who you want to be occupying the spot of WR1. Pittman is a high quality X, but that's not what you want to fill that spot.

I think saying someone is WR1 talent is objective, but you can definitely say there is room for improvement at that spot from a talent standpoint. I love having MPJ on this team, and I think our WR room is solid like most of the roster. We have a guy for if we need to draw something up. We absolutely need a receiver that does all of the things. I really want Nabers. He is the best compliment to Pittman for an X and Z relationship.

[smittywerb]

1 hour ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

Throw slants to Pittman or Downs

Screens to Pittman or JT

Run bootlegs 

Throw wheel routes to RBs 

Draw play

Also you have a QB that can run and will make them pay with his legs

 

Many options there

 

I don't disagree about Pierce, but he's open quite a bit and not been thrown to 

 

 

The options you’ve listed, we actually do all of those, minus the bootlegs and running qb.  I’m not saying those won’t work, but the only difference I see with those is that AR will throw to Pierce.  
 

the problem with our offense this year wasn’t just “we didn’t throw to Pierce when he was open”.  We lacked dynamic players.  I guess what I’m saying is we need players who can beat their man one on one, who doesn’t need a coach or scheme or qb to help them.  
 

Trust me, pressure on the qb changes everything.  We will see next year.  I may be wrong and Pierce turns into an all pro.  But going off what I’ve seen, Pierce running streaks isn’t the answer to making our offense more explosive.  

[DougDew]

28 minutes ago, KB said:

I can agree with this for the most part. A high quality Z is who you want to be occupying the spot of WR1. Pittman is a high quality X, but that's not what you want to fill that spot.

I think saying someone is WR1 talent is objective, but you can definitely say there is room for improvement at that spot from a talent standpoint. I love having MPJ on this team, and I think our WR room is solid like most of the roster. We have a guy for if we need to draw something up. We absolutely need a receiver that does all of the things. I really want Nabers. He is the best compliment to Pittman for an X and Z relationship.

Talent impacts position.  Downs has the size of a traditional slot.  And #1WR talented WRs typically play outside.  The way I think of it is that the Z should be manned by the most talented WR....so the Z is #1WR.  #2 is X, and #3 is slot, because the slot guy traditionally has some physical limitations.

 

Personally, I think Pitt should be resigned, and as a quality X (even though he can do some other things).  It makes no sense to me that if we want better performance from the WR group that there would be a plan to replace Pitt with another WR.  We need a 1, so you sign a 1 and move AP to Pitts X?  I don't see it.

 

I think the plan should be to resign Pitt, then draft a #1 Z, which pushes AP down to #4...or backup Z/X.  That would be the best way to improve the WR room, IMO.

 

But Pitt has to be resigned to the value of a quality X or #2...not a #1,

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pittmann jump ship for a better option.  

He won't get that option this year

[Solid84]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pittmann jump ship for a better option.  

He can't this year at least. He'll get tagged.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I don't understand how you say you don't get the QB argument, and then list three QBs who weren't very good with the Colts. Wentz was the best of the three, and there's a notable difference between Pittman's YPC in 2021 and his YPC in 2023. 

 

If we had Dak Prescott instead of Gardner Minshew, you don't think Pittman's YPC would be notably higher?

 

Do you think that Garrett Wilson would have had more than 11 yards/catch if Aaron Rodgers was healthy? 

 

I don't think Pittman will ever be a 1,500 yard, 16 yards/catch receiver, and he's definitely not the prototype that comes to mind when talking about true #1 WRs. But I think it's a mistake to hold his career yards/catch stat over his head without acknowledging that he's played with bad/inefficient QBs for most of his career. Yet, you seem to want to reduce his entire career down to that one stat.

My point is that his production had been more or less the same regardless of who has been at QB. His yards and YPR for his career have been

 

2020 (rookie season and missed a few games): 503 yds, and 12.6 YPR

 

2021: 1,082 yds and 12.3 YPR

 

2022: 925 yds and 9.3 YPR

 

2023: 1,152 yds and 10.6 yds

 

He’s been in between 9-12 yards for his career. And what’s more is despite Minshew’s short comings, he had a career year for receptions, so he was the number 1 target on the team when they needed to pass. So he had more opportunities this year with better QB play, and only averaged 1.3 more yards.

 

To me YPR is much more of an indicator of the receivers skill set than it is of the QB. Now I get the argument with Pierce because we all saw him streaking wide open several times and Minshew didn’t even see him or threw a bad ball, but I don’t think Minshew really inhibited Pitt at all. Plus Pierce still had a higher YPR. Josh Downs is at 11.3 with the same QB. 
 

The reason why I harp on that stat so much is because it shows that Pittman doesn’t typically generate a bunch of explosive plays. The top receivers in the league do. Pittman is probably more consistent and skilled than Pierce, but way less explosive. In this topic we are comparing him to other top receivers in the league and in terms of creating big plays based on YPR, he’s ranked 82nd.

 

Thats just my view on the topic in this thread. He may be near the top in receptions, targets, and yards, but he’s near the bottom in YPR and TDs. To me Targets, yards, and receptions can be a misleading stats if not given context. Because 1,000 yards is the benchmark for WRs, we see that and think that means a receiver is a number 1. But once you factor in how many catches it took to get there, it gives better context. In summary, it’s not hard to 1,000 yards if you catch 10+ passes a game and get 20 yards. By comparison, If Nico Collins had caught 109 receptions like Pittman, he would have had roughly 1,766 yards. Pitt actually should have produced way more with the amount of receptions he had.

 

Pitt is not an explosive player. I don’t think AR or any QB is going to change that. A full season of AR probably means more production for Pierce if anything.

 

[KB]

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/indianapolis-colts-among-favorites-land-eagles-aj-brown

 

Would you give up pick 15 for AJ Brown? Him and Pittman would compliment each other well. We would also be able to laugh at Titans fans, and who dosnt love doing that.

[Defjamz26]

18 minutes ago, KB said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/indianapolis-colts-among-favorites-land-eagles-aj-brown

 

Would you give up pick 15 for AJ Brown? Him and Pittman would compliment each other well. We would also be able to laugh at Titans fans, and who dosnt love doing that.

No. If he’s having issues that have to do with character, I’ll pass. Not for pick 15. 2nd round pick absolutely. But if you trade for AJ Browm you’re also going to have to pay him so are you bringing Pitt back and having Brown? You’d be putting roughly $40 million of you cap space into two receivers.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

My point is that his production had been more or less the same regardless of who has been at QB. 

 

Okay but the argument isn't that his production would be different if he had a different QB. The argument is that his production would be different if he had a better QB. To me, that seems obvious. And the QBs we've had the last three years have all displayed some critical limitations. 

 

Quote

he was the number 1 target on the team when they needed to pass. So he had more opportunities this year with better QB play, and only averaged 1.3 more yards.

 

The offense was 30% 'quick pass to Pittman.' Look at his charts. His average depth of target was 8.8, 134th in the league. Mo Alie Cox was at 9.7. 

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/michael-pittman/PIT228050/season

https://www.fantasylife.com/tools/air-yards

 

Quote

To me YPR is much more of an indicator of the receivers skill set than it is of the QB.

 

I think it can be both. Like I said, Pittman isn't ever going to be a 16 yards/catch guy. But 10.8 is the number you're hanging over his head, and I think that's heavily influenced by the QBing and play calling.

 

Quote

I don’t think Minshew really inhibited Pitt at all

 

I think the strengths and shortcomings of the QB impact every receiver. What the QB does well and struggles with flavors every element of the passing game. And I think that's been a significant factor throughout Pittman's career.
 

Quote

The reason why I harp on that stat so much is because it shows that Pittman doesn’t typically generate a bunch of explosive plays.

 

No disagreement there. That's also obvious. But it also seems to be the entire substance of your opinion on Pittman. He's 82nd in yards/catch, but surely you wouldn't argue that he's the 82nd best pass catcher in the NFL, right? So there's clearly value in his play beyond his yards/catch.

 

And for me (and other like-minded observers), since I think his yards/catch is strongly influenced by the QBing and play calling, it's a stat that needs to be contextualized.

 

Quote

To me Targets, yards, and receptions can be a misleading stats if not given context. Because 1,000 yards is the benchmark for WRs, we see that and think that means a receiver is a number 1.

 

I think the same is true of yards/catch, but that requires a bit more insight. And yeah, I think saying 'he's a 1,000 yard WR, of course he's a #1!' is similarly flawed.

 

Quote

Pitt is not an explosive player. I don’t think AR or any QB is going to change that. 

 

Okay, but back to my earlier question. Do you think that with a better QB, Pittman's yards/catch would be notably better? He was 12.6 yards/catch as a rookie.  Just swap Minshew for Prescott, you don't think Pittman is closer to 13?

[DougDew]

55 minutes ago, KB said:

https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/news/indianapolis-colts-among-favorites-land-eagles-aj-brown

 

Would you give up pick 15 for AJ Brown? Him and Pittman would compliment each other well. We would also be able to laugh at Titans fans, and who dosnt love doing that.

Well, this issue now puts the original trade of Brown from TEN to PHI in perspective. 

 

Personally, I saw some things that Brown did on the field that were not the classiest character indicators.  Perhaps the former TEN GM thought that Brown was a bit of a perpetual complainer no matter what the circumstance.  Just saying, there are personalities that always complain and are never happy or satisfied.

 

I think Philly did well with Smith and Brown, but I don't know that either really has the top end speed....near top end...but not over the top.  Which is okay for Philly because Hurts doesn't have the top end arm...and maybe Hurts' arm strength never allowed either's top end speed to shine, if they have it..   With AR, I want top end speed to compliment Pitt, but probably something better all around than AP.   

[KB]

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Well, this issue now puts the original trade of Brown from TEN to PHI in perspective. 

 

Personally, I saw some things that Brown did on the field that were not the classiest character indicators.  Perhaps the former TEN GM thought that Brown was a bit of a perpetual complainer no matter what the circumstance.  Just saying, there are personalities that always complain and are never happy or satisfied.

 

I think Philly did well with Smith and Brown, but I don't know that either really has the top end speed....near top end...but not over the top.  Which is okay for Philly because Hurts doesn't have the top end arm...and maybe Hurts' arm strength never allowed either's top end speed to shine, if they have it..   With AR, I want top end speed to compliment Pitt, but probably something better all around than AP.   

I hadn't thought about that. The story on the trade has usually been the GM trying to avoid paying Brown. I agree with the top end speed but more well rounded than Pierce. That actually might be the perfect explanation for the type of receiver we need this offseason.

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

Okay but the argument isn't that his production would be different if he had a different QB. The argument is that his production would be different if he had a better QB. To me, that seems obvious. And the QBs we've had the last three years have all displayed some critical limitations. 

Id say Minshew was better than the version of Matt Ryan that we got. Limited? Yes, but still better. Wentz was worse than Rivers, but his issues hurt the team more than any specific skill player. If anything he got in trouble by forcing the ball to Pittman and staring him down too much.

 
 

2 hours ago, Superman said:

I think the strengths and shortcomings of the QB impact every receiver. What the QB does well and struggles with flavors every element of the passing game. And I think that's been a significant factor throughout Pittman's career.

Agree with the thought, but I don’t think it’s the case for Pitt. I actually think Pitt and Minshew compliment each other well. Minshew isn’t a deep ball guy and likes to throw short and intermediate stuff. Those are also the routes that Pitt is best at. It’s no coincidence that Pitt’s best season statistically was with Minshew at the helm.

 

2 hours ago, Superman said:

Okay, but back to my earlier question. Do you think that with a better QB, Pittman's yards/catch would be notably better? He was 12.6 yards/catch as a rookie.  Just swap Minshew for Prescott, you don't think Pittman is closer to 13?

Yes and no. Do I think he would be better? Yes. I just don’t think it would be significantly better to the point where you’d re-evaluate if he’s really a WR1. Yes with Prescott, he may be at 12.5-13 or so. But I still don’t think he’s going to generate a bunch of explosives, which is something we both agree on.

 

Scheme plays a part as well. Steichen wants to push the ball down the field. With a fully healthy AR and a full season of JT, I actually think Pitt’s production actually goes down. Especially if we draft a 1st round receiver.

 

The other thing for me is that stylistically, my comp for Pittman is his former college teammate, JuJu Smith-Schuster. I’d even say certain aspects of their game anre identical. Juju got the opportunity to play with the best QB in the game in Patrick Mahomes and what did he do? 933 yards, on 78 catches for a 12.0 YPR. On paper you’d say that’s good for a Receiver on the same team as Travis Kelce. And I’d say I agree. It’s great production.

 

I think if we didn’t resign Pittman and he went to the Chiefs, that’s almost the exact stat line he would have. Heck even when JuJu had that 1,400 yard season in Pittsburgh he only averaged 12.8 YPR. 
 

I also just don’t think that’s how evaluation works in the NFL. I don’t think Ballard and company are in the office saying, “Listen some of the stats are pedestrian, but it’s just because of the QB play. Soon as Anthony gets going he’ll really light it up”. I think that more fan thinking than actual NFL GM thinking. We as fans are always going to look at things from an optimistic view. We want to believe all of our early round players are studs, so when someone maybe falls below our own expectations we are going to try and use every possible rationale to explain it.

 

[Myles]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Okay but the argument isn't that his production would be different if he had a different QB. The argument is that his production would be different if he had a better QB. To me, that seems obvious. And the QBs we've had the last three years have all displayed some critical limitations. 

 

 

Even more so would be consistency with 1 good QB

[Superman]

3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Yes and no. Do I think he would be better? Yes. I just don’t think it would be significantly better to the point where you’d re-evaluate if he’s really a WR1. Yes with Prescott, he may be at 12.5-13 or so. But I still don’t think he’s going to generate a bunch of explosives, which is something we both agree on.

 

That's my point with the hypothetical. I don't think it makes sense to constantly reduce the evaluation of Pittman down to his yards/catch. I think that stat is significantly impacted by the quality of the QB play, and to me, that's plain and obvious.

 

We had basically the same conversation a few weeks ago, so I don't want to belabor the point. We definitely agree that Pittman is not the prototypical #1 WR that we need if we want to really compete at the top level. And while I think we'll probably re-sign him at a higher yearly average than you think we should, I would not be overly hurt if we could trade him for the value of a late first rounder. But given the fact that he basically embodies what Ballard and Steichen describe when they talk about the kind of player and person they want on the team, I don't think he's going anywhere.

 

Also, I think it's fair to assume that the Colts are looking for the prototype #1 WR. They reportedly wanted Waddle from the Dolphins, or Watson from the Packers, two different players in playing style and body composition, but both much more explosive than Pittman. Ballard also talked about getting more explosive offensively. I'm not making any predictions, but it seems like they know the offense is lacking that dynamic ability, specifically in the passing game.

[AwesomeAustin]

I just did some quick math. If you average out MPJs production over the last three years and use that for playing 15 games a season for the next 6, he would rank in the top 65 all time in receiving yards. That is ROH territory. I get he isn’t flashy but he produces. If AR develops like we hope he does, MPJ has a shot at top 50 numbers. To me it’s the blue collar type player teams need to compete for championships. I think we need to resign him and let him be the safety net Reggie Wayne type player for AR. The value for our young QB is immense and should not be taken lightly. 

[DougDew]

14 hours ago, KB said:

I hadn't thought about that. The story on the trade has usually been the GM trying to avoid paying Brown. I agree with the top end speed but more well rounded than Pierce. That actually might be the perfect explanation for the type of receiver we need this offseason.

Just sayin'. when Brown first started playing for Philly there were some things on the field that struck me as him not being the classiest guy, or a Diva with a temper. 

 

That trade was always a head scratcher, so maybe there were behind the scenes issues that the GM saw that made him not eager to hitch TENs wagon to Brown with a pricey contract, that the general fan base didn't understand.  Just looking back at the situation now. 

 

[AwesomeAustin]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Just sayin'. when Brown first started playing for Philly there were some things on the field that struck me as him not being the classiest guy, or a Diva with a temper. 

 

That trade was always a head scratcher, so maybe there were behind the scenes issues that the GM saw that made him not eager to hitch TENs wagon to Brown with a pricey contract, that the general fan base didn't understand.  Just looking back at the situation now. 

 

I thought I was seeing Brown was being asked repeatedly if he has an issue with the Eagles. Didn’t really look into it bc I can care less about that drama on another team. Maybe he is a problem or wears his heart on his sleeve and is the best teammate when they are winning and grumpy when losing. Not really concerned so ultimately doesn’t matter what he is. Point is, we don’t really see that here in Indy and definitely not from MPJ. He is a hardworker and I have no concerns giving him a contract when it comes to attitude. Ability aspect has room for interpretation and I understand where the other side is coming from. 

[John Waylon]

Needs to touch painted grass more than once a month. 

[lester]

21 hours ago, Myles said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Pittmann jump ship for a better option.  

 

It is my opinion, from the outside looking in, that Michael Pittman Jr. is laying deep roots, personally, in the Indy area. He bought a farm with a custom residence within just the last few months. He has been steadily improving the homestead, buying machinery, and adding to his livestock. You don't make that purchase, with that timing, if you're really expecting to move on shortly.

[indyagent17]

On 1/15/2024 at 4:54 PM, IndyColtsFan411 said:

WR Stats 2023

 

Name GP/Rec/Targets/Yds/TD/Diff

Diff=diff in targets from closest other on team

AFC East

S. Diggs     17/107/160/1183/8/69

T. Hill           16/119/161/1799/13/67

G. Wilson    17/95/168/1042/3/73

D. Douglas  14/49/79/561/0/2

AFC North

Z. Flowers   16/77/108/858/5/44

A. Cooper    15/72/128/1250/5/5

G. Pickens   17/63/106/1140/5/19

J. Chase       16/100/145/1216/7/47

AFC South

N. Collins     15/80/109/1297/8/21

C. Ridley       17/76/136/1016/8/-7

M. Pittman   16/109/156/1152/4/58

D. Hopkins   17/75/137/1057/7/60

AFC West

R. Rice           16/79/102/938/7/-19

D. Adams      17/103/175/1144/8/69

C. Sutton       16/59/90/772/10/3

K. Allen           13/108/150/1243/7/89

NFC East

C. Lamb         17/135/181/1749/12/79

A.J. Brown     17/106/158/1456/7/46

D. Slayton      17/50/79/770/4/1

T. McLaurin   17/79/132/1002/4/41

NFC North

A. St. Brown   16/119/164/1515/10/44

R. Doubs         16/59/96/674/8/2

J. Addison       17/70/108/911/10/-19

D. Moore          17/96/136/1364/8/46

NFC South

M. Evans          17/79/136/1255/13/6

C. Olave           16/87/138/1123/5/63

D. London        16/69/110/905/2/20

A. Thielen         17/103/137/1014/4/71

NFC West

B. Aiyuk            16/75105/1342/7/15

P. Nacua (R)    17/105/160/1486/6/65

T. Lockett         17/79/122/894/5/3

M. Brown          14/51/101/574/4/-5

 

Pittman was:

#9 in targets

#5 in receptions 

#14 in yards

#54 tied in TDs

#82 in yds/reception

His lack of TD’s was troubling. We all knew how inaccurate Mischew was and Pitt still had a decent season. Just imagine a healthy Richardson throwing the ball. He still has some inaccurate throws but defensively teams will be afraid of his running threat. That makes him trouble for defensive coordinators. Pierce will be better, Downs will be more of a weapon and Pitt will shine. Get the right mix of receiving TE, and another top receiver in FA or the draft and this will be exciting