Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Are we YEARS away from contention?


bluephantom87

Recommended Posts

13 minutes ago, rayski said:

Strong overreaction here, which is fairly typical on teams forums where the team had been successful over a long period of a time, visiting a Patriots forum they acting like headless chickens now.

This team is fun, we need a qb but I hate to break it to you for some teams it takes decades to find a reliable long term answer, regardless who the GM or HC is, It is what it is in the NFL

That is my fear.   Especially if we give up lots of good picks to move up.  Then you cannot even have a good team that can win with an average QB.  You are hoping you hit on an elite QB that carry a team for a year or 2.   

I really don't want to end up like the Jets have.   We know what they gave up to draft Darnold.   After a couple years they had to draft Zach Wilson with the 2nd overall pick in the draft.   Now they benched Zach and will need to find a QB yet again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 184
  • Created
  • Last Reply
11 minutes ago, rayski said:

Strong overreaction here, which is fairly typical on teams forums where the team had been successful over a long period of a time, visiting a Patriots forum they acting like headless chickens now.

This team is fun, we need a qb but I hate to break it to you for some teams it takes decades to find a reliable long term answer, regardless who the GM or HC is, It is what it is in the NFL

Yep, Pats fans are jumping off the cliff at this point. Now they know how we feel for a change. There website is hilarious to read. We had Peyton and Luck for 2 decades so we were spolied + even Rivers who was good for the 1 year in 2020. They had Brady for 2 decades they were spoiled. Last 3 years for the Pats have been a dumpster fire, welcome to the average football world now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bill Belichick without Brady = 23-23 counting his 1 playoff loss last year. Wow, that is great isn't it? Frank Reich has a better record than Belichick has had over the last 3 years = 23-20-1 counting his 1 playoff loss in 2020 with 3 different QB's before being fired. Both have made the playoffs once and Reich has less losses and same amount of wins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This narrative that we are YEARS away from contention is really a silly notion. All it takes is a couple of players in the right positions to quickly turn things around.  The Colts went 3-13 to 13-3 in one season so to think things can't turn around is wrong. The negative mindset is contagious in this forum. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

This narrative that we are YEARS away from contention is really a silly notion. All it takes is a couple of players in the right positions to quickly turn things around.  The Colts went 3-13 to 13-3 in one season so to think things can't turn around is wrong. The negative mindset is contagious in this forum. 

 

I think the results on the field have more to do with the negative contagion than a virus on this forum. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Bill Belichick without Brady = 23-23 counting his 1 playoff loss last year. Wow, that is great isn't it? Frank Reich has a better record than Belichick has had over the last 3 years = 23-20-1 counting his 1 playoff loss in 2020 with 3 different QB's before being fired. Both have made the playoffs once and Reich has less losses and same amount of wins.

If you add BBs first 6 years coaching without TB in the  90s, he has a record of 64-77 sans Brady for a career with 2 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins, and no division titles. 

 

So that is a record for close to 9 seasons.  Kinda makes me wonder a little.   I guess you could add the Brady 1st gane injury year when NE went 10-6.  They didn't make the post but that would increase the record to 74 and 83. 

 

What is safe to say though is that BB has not won consistently without Brady.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

I think the results on the field have more to do with the negative contagion than a virus on this forum. 

The overreaction is contagious. This fire everyone mindset is what I am referring to. Just because we have a problem at a couple of positions does not warrant the firing of everyone. There is also some who say silly things like a new owner is needed. Anyone who has known Irsay since he was known as Jimmy should know by now that he is a good owner. Yes he is eccentric but only does what he thinks is best for the Colts. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Nickster said:

If you add BBs first 6 years coaching without TB in the  90s, he has a record of 64-77 sans Brady for a career with 2 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins, and no division titles. 

 

So that is a record for close to 9 seasons.  Kinda makes me wonder a little.   I guess you could add the Brady 1st gane injury year when NE went 10-6.  They didn't make the post but that would increase the record to 74 and 83. 

 

What is safe to say though is that BB has not won consistently without Brady.  

You don't have to wonder at all.  The records speak for themselves. :thmup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

The overreaction is contagious. This fire everyone mindset is what I am referring to. Just because we have a problem at a couple of positions does not warrant the firing of everyone. There is also some who say silly things like a new owner is needed. Anyone who has known Irsay since he was known as Jimmy should know by now that he is a good owner. Yes he is eccentric but only does what he thinks is best for the Colts. 

I don't think Jim is a great owner.  Not right now anyway.  And I don't care that he's eccentric.   That is irrelevant.  I don't care he's a Super fan.  To me that is irrelevant or even detrimental with too much emotional involvement and not enough cold business savvy. 

 

I think he meddles.   That is rarely good.    

 

I think in the Pags/Grigs era there were some headscratching moves from Irsay.

Maybe he's a good owner when he has HOF level QBs and stays out of the mix, but right now I'd put him bottom of the barrell and I would guess that many coaches/players/gm types would think twice about coming to INDY with what they've seen from Jim lately. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Bill Belichick without Brady = 23-23 counting his 1 playoff loss last year. Wow, that is great isn't it? Frank Reich has a better record than Belichick has had over the last 3 years = 23-20-1 counting his 1 playoff loss in 2020 with 3 different QB's before being fired. Both have made the playoffs once and Reich has less losses and same amount of wins.

Does that include in cleveland?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Fluke_33 said:

Does that include in cleveland?

No but my reply does.

 

1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

Does that include in cleveland?

"If you add BBs first 6 years coaching without TB in the  90s, he has a record of 64-77 sans Brady for a career with 2 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins, and no division titles. 

 

So that is a record for close to 9 seasons.  Kinda makes me wonder a little.   I guess you could add the Brady 1st gane injury year when NE went 10-6.  They didn't make the post but that would increase the record to 74 and 83. 

 

What is safe to say though is that BB has not won consistently without Brady.  "

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

The overreaction is contagious. This fire everyone mindset is what I am referring to. Just because we have a problem at a couple of positions does not warrant the firing of everyone. There is also some who say silly things like a new owner is needed. Anyone who has known Irsay since he was known as Jimmy should know by now that he is a good owner. Yes he is eccentric but only does what he thinks is best for the Colts. 

indy would not have a team without irsay

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Nickster said:

No but my reply does.

 

"If you add BBs first 6 years coaching without TB in the  90s, he has a record of 64-77 sans Brady for a career with 2 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins, and no division titles. 

 

So that is a record for close to 9 seasons.  Kinda makes me wonder a little.   I guess you could add the Brady 1st gane injury year when NE went 10-6.  They didn't make the post but that would increase the record to 74 and 83. 

 

What is safe to say though is that BB has not won consistently without Brady.  "

does that mean a team needs an elite qb to win?? does a coach really matter??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/5/2022 at 8:28 PM, Superman said:

We're a QB and HC away. Just like basically every other team. 

 

There's nothing else preventing this team from being ready/able to contend if we get those two decisions right. 

I would add an O-line to this equation because even if we have Superman (no pun intended) at QB, he is not effective if he is running for his life or laying on his back all the time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I don't think Jim is a great owner.  Not right now anyway.  And I don't care that he's eccentric.   That is irrelevant.  I don't care he's a Super fan.  To me that is irrelevant or even detrimental with too much emotional involvement and not enough cold business savvy. 

 

I think he meddles.   That is rarely good.    

 

I think in the Pags/Grigs era there were some headscratching moves from Irsay.

Maybe he's a good owner when he has HOF level QBs and stays out of the mix, but right now I'd put him bottom of the barrell and I would guess that many coaches/players/gm types would think twice about coming to INDY with what they've seen from Jim lately. 

The bottom of the barrel? There is no way that Irsay is considered a bad owner to the league.  What you call meddling is him stepping in and taking control.  So just because he don't sit on his hands and stays quite you call him bottom of the barrel.  

Nonsense. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

The overreaction is contagious. This fire everyone mindset is what I am referring to. Just because we have a problem at a couple of positions does not warrant the firing of everyone. There is also some who say silly things like a new owner is needed. Anyone who has known Irsay since he was known as Jimmy should know by now that he is a good owner. Yes he is eccentric but only does what he thinks is best for the Colts. 

I think you are right that overractions can often be contagious. But, I don't see this team getting back to contention with just simple tweaks. This team has been tweaked to death this year (kicker, O-line, O-line, O-line, QB, QB, QB, OC, Coach fired, Interim Coach hired, etc.) The only one that has not been tweaked in this process is the GM. Without wholesale change most Colts fans are reasonable not to expect much progress with the same people doing the same things. Sometimes wiping the slate clean and getting a whole new start is needed to move forward; it is rarely pretty but probably necessary at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, philba101 said:

I would add an O-line to this equation because even if we have Superman (no pun intended) at QB, he is not effective if he is running for his life or laying on his back all the time.

 

OL is important, but it's not that hard to fix the OL.

 

I also think coaching and QB play have hurt the OL over the last season and a half.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

OL is important, but it's not that hard to fix the OL.

 

I also think coaching and QB play have hurt the OL over the last season and a half.

I agree our coaching and QB play have not helped the O-line at all this year. Perhaps the O-line can be fixed quickly but I don't have faith that are current GM is the one to do that quickly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/5/2022 at 5:00 PM, ClaytonColt said:

It stuns me that there are so many people who are still positive about how close we are.

 

It's a roster with terrible contracts at most of the secondary positions, no talent at the key ones and a back office who have brought us here.

 

Even if we drafted a quarterback this year we'd be losing some of our most talented players by the time they'd settled in. We've built in the wrong way for 5 years and it will likely take even longer to change that around. We're right on the borderline of being the Browns.

 

 Yet deese bums just gave Philly and Dallas a run for their money.

 Contracts are written with outs after 3 years. We have a superior capologist that knows how to plan ahead. We can rebalance some every year.

 So get a grip on it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

This narrative that we are YEARS away from contention is really a silly notion. All it takes is a couple of players in the right positions to quickly turn things around.  The Colts went 3-13 to 13-3 in one season so to think things can't turn around is wrong. The negative mindset is contagious in this forum. 

We’re not just looking at having to get a few players though. 
 

We’re looking at…

-   A new HC (I count Saturday as new as well),

-   A new OC,

-   A new playbook,

-   Possibly a new GM,

-   Possibly a new DC,

-   New assistent coaches,

-   A new QB,

-   New Olinemen.

 

A lot of things need to click for this to work. Even IF we nail the QB this draft we’ve seen first hand what a bad playcaller and a bad playbook can do to an offense.

 

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

OL is important, but it's not that hard to fix the OL.

 

I also think coaching and QB play have hurt the OL over the last season and a half.

We’ve had a bad Oline for two seasons now. It’s clearly not THAT easy to fix. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, philba101 said:

I agree our coaching and QB play have not helped the O-line at all this year. Perhaps the O-line can be fixed quickly but I don't have faith that are current GM is the one to do that quickly.

 

Who built the OL that was top five in the league for 3 seasons?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

We’ve had a bad Oline for two seasons now. It’s clearly not THAT easy to fix. 

 

Not really. The LT position was problematic last year, the rest of the OL was better than good enough. Other positions have slipped this season, partly due to a couple of underperforming players. They thought they could swap out LTs, but clearly the line needs more work. Still, won't be that difficult to fix.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Not really. The LT position was problematic last year, the rest of the OL was better than good enough. Other positions have slipped this season, partly due to a couple of underperforming players. They thought they could swap out LTs, but clearly the line needs more work. Still, won't be that difficult to fix.

They ranked 30th in pass protection. They were good at run blocking, but they were a big reason for Wentz not being good enough. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oline has had some bad moments this year but the real issue is not picking up the blitz. Since Saturday has come in the oline has improved. But Matt Ryan is still not recognizing blitzes, not getting players into the right spots, and guys like Taylor are just not good at picking it up. That includes TE and recovers too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Who built the OL that was top five in the league for 3 seasons?

Same person to have this poor OL now? Same guy that depends on rookies and doesn't bring in depth? I see what your saying Superman but it goes both ways. These are grown men making a living playing a kids game. Making the bucks! You can't keep blaming coaches and QB when colts have a GM that never has brought in a franchise QB. Ballard just weirdly leaves some positions alone. LT and and his QB choses comes back to bite him.

I don't agree with a lot of what I read on here saying we need a tougher coach. I'm not big on coaches motivating in the NFL. If your players need the coach to yell at them at this level, GM not drafting the right players. That isn't what your saying, I read in other thread. Harbaugh is coming unless he doesn't want the job. IMO Not who I want, but Irsay wants him.. haha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Timeout said:

Same person to have this poor OL now? Same guy that depends on rookies and doesn't bring in depth? I see what your saying Superman but it goes both ways. These are grown men making a living playing a kids game. Making the bucks! You can't keep blaming coaches and QB when colts have a GM that never has brought in a franchise QB. Ballard just weirdly leaves some positions alone. LT and and his QB choses comes back to bite him.

I don't agree with a lot of what I read on here saying we need a tougher coach. I'm not big on coaches motivating in the NFL. If your players need the coach to yell at them at this level, GM not drafting the right players. That isn't what your saying, I read in other thread. Harbaugh is coming unless he doesn't want the job. IMO Not who I want, but Irsay wants him.. haha

 

 Ballard would have had to be sold on Pryor by his position coach, Reich, and anyone else that looks at the position. He also brought in Kelly who has been a solid backup/spot starter. And drafted a highly rated though inexperienced LT prosepect that when pushed into the lineup is improving rapidly.

 Seems your head is in... the clouds.

 Same at RG. Pinter played quite well as a spot starter at C last year and the same people sold Ballard on his ability. Fries is a 2nd year player with the size and strength to compete. He is making some mistakes like 99% of young first year starters do. But he s also improving. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

This narrative that we are YEARS away from contention is really a silly notion. All it takes is a couple of players in the right positions to quickly turn things around.  The Colts went 3-13 to 13-3 in one season so to think things can't turn around is wrong. The negative mindset is contagious in this forum. 

 

Is it REALLY a silly notion to believe that this team could be YEARS away from contention? I simply pondered the question when I started the post and judging from the responses I take it that MANY feel it is certainly POSSIBLE. I don’t think it’s a NEGATIVE mindset but more of an OPINION of what some FEEL based on CURRENT results and the direction of the team moving forward.

 

Your OPINION of it being SILLY and leading to a NEGATIVE mindset that is CONTAGIOUS on this forum is only considered "positive" I guess if they SEE it YOUR way. Me personally I think the forum is a cool place for Colt fans to chat about various topics concerning the team. With that being said PEOPLE will NOT always agree. Some WILL see things differently.

 

The LATEST nfl power rankings have the Colts at #31. Do I agree with that? No but OTHER rankings have us BOTTOM five. Is that where we REALLY want to be after SIX years under Ballard? I HOPE not! NOW let's dig a little deeper... 

 

Yes anything IS possible as your example pointed out but can BALLARD make that happen? Six years in: no franchise qb, no foundational type LT, no EXPERIENCED hc or oc, o-line is subpar, no ELITE wr or de and our pass rush is STILL suspect. Six years in: no division titles or SB contending runs. Six years in and Ballard is UNDER .500 as gm.

 

Six years in: teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals and Chargers have sprouted up with young gun qbs that are vying for AFC supremacy. Don't forget about the Titans. I think there are more FRINGE teams in the afc that are CLOSER to a move or two away like the Jets, Raiders, Browns, Pats, Steelers and Jags. I don't think ANY of those teams will just sit back thus making it even HARDER for the Colts. Only time will tell but the Colts DEFINITELY have their work cut out moving forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

Is it REALLY a silly notion to believe that this team could be YEARS away from contention? I simply pondered the question when I started the post and judging from the responses I take it that MANY feel it is certainly POSSIBLE. I don’t think it’s a NEGATIVE mindset but more of an OPINION of what some FEEL based on CURRENT results and the direction of the team moving forward.

 

Your OPINION of it being SILLY and leading to a NEGATIVE mindset that is CONTAGIOUS on this forum is only considered "positive" I guess if they SEE it YOUR way. Me personally I think the forum is a cool place for Colt fans to chat about various topics concerning the team. With that being said PEOPLE will NOT always agree. Some WILL see things differently.

 

The LATEST nfl power rankings have the Colts at #31. Do I agree with that? No but OTHER rankings have us BOTTOM five. Is that where we REALLY want to be after SIX years under Ballard? I HOPE not! NOW let's dig a little deeper... 

 

Yes anything IS possible as your example pointed out but can BALLARD make that happen? Six years in: no franchise qb, no foundational type LT, no EXPERIENCED hc or oc, o-line is subpar, no ELITE wr or de and our pass rush is STILL suspect. Six years in: no division titles or SB contending runs. Six years in and Ballard is UNDER .500 as gm.

 

Six years in: teams like the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals and Chargers have sprouted up with young gun qbs that are vying for AFC supremacy. Don't forget about the Titans. I think there are more FRINGE teams in the afc that are CLOSER to a move or two away like the Jets, Raiders, Browns, Pats, Steelers and Jags. I don't think ANY of those teams will just sit back thus making it even HARDER for the Colts. Only time will tell but the Colts DEFINITELY have their work cut out moving forward.

Using capital letters does what? I didn't bother to read your war and piece article. I don't feel the need to write a book explaining myself.  

Carry on. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Using capital letters does what? I didn't bother to read your war and piece article. I don't feel the need to write a book explaining myself.  

Carry on. 

 

Ahh. Carry on. Nice military term. A place where merits are based on results. You either get the job done or you don't. So it took the Colts six long years under Ballard to NO not win the division but be ranked in the BOTTOM five of the league yet you believe it's out the question that it could possibly take years for this team to contend under his leadership? So if a guy falls asleep with a lit cigarette and burns the house down does he get credit for saving some cherished pictures?! :facepalm: Just asking for a friend.... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bluephantom87 said:

 

Ahh. Carry on. Nice military term. A place where merits are based on results. You either get the job done or you don't. So it took the Colts six long years under Ballard to NO not win the division but be ranked in the BOTTOM five of the league yet you believe it's out the question that it could possibly take years for this team to contend under his leadership? So if a guy falls asleep with a lit cigarette and burns the house down does he get credit for saving some cherished pictures?! :facepalm: Just asking for a friend.... 

Over thinking this is one of those contagious issues I was referring to. :thmup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • I’m mainly making a post because I’m bored and can’t wait for training camp to start. I think one aspect that could be affecting our high pressure to sack ratio was that we gave away the quick pass a lot last year because of our young secondary which decreases our pressures per play. So when we force longer developing plays our rushers had more time to attack. I’m not sold on this argument but could help explain an outlier. 
    • I don't see evidence that a lower blitz rate correlates with a higher sack rate. 2023, League average blitz rate was 29%, average sack rate was 28% There were 4 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 34.7% There were 9 teams with a blitz rate of 30% of more; they averaged a sack rate of 30.9% The remaining 19 teams averaged a sack rate of 31.2% 2022, League average blitz rate was 24%, average sack rate was 30%  There were 11 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 29.5% There were 8 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 29% The remaining 13 teams averaged a sack rate of 31.2% 2021, League average blitz rate was 27%, average sack rate was 25%  There were 4 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 23.3% There were 9 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 23.8% The remaining 19 teams averaged a sack rate of 25.4% 2020, League average blitz rate was 30%, average sack rate was 24%  There were 2 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 23% There were 16 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 23.7% The remaining 14 teams averaged a sack rate of 23.7% 2019, League average blitz rate was 29%, average sack rate was 28% There were 3 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 24.6% There were 12 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 27.7% The remaining 17 teams averaged a sack rate of 28.3% (The Colts had a blitz rate at or below 20% in four of these five seasons. 2019 is the lone exception, and the Colts blitzed 22.9% that year, so not too far outside the parameter, but still far below league average.)   Only once in the last five seasons (2023) have the teams with an extremely low blitz rate averaged a higher sack rate than the teams with a fairly aggressive blitz rate. At the same time, only once (2019) have the teams with an aggressive blitz rate averaged a significantly higher sack rate than the teams with a low blitz rate, and it's only 3.1 points higher. And there's no obvious donut hole of efficiency between the two extremes, as you can see from the teams that blitzed between 20% and 30%; the only years where the middle teams outperformed the league average were 2022 (1.2 points), and 2023 (3.2 points).   Another takeway: With the exception of 2022, blitzing more often is more common among NFL teams than blitzing conservatively. On average, 5 teams/year have a blitz rate of 20% or less, while 11 teams/year have a blitz rate of 30% or more.   My conclusion: Since there's little variance in sack rate on the basis of blitz percentage, I don't think blitzing or not blitzing is a deciding factor in the quality of the pass rush. It's likely much more circumstantial, and probably difficult to pin down -- timing of blitzes, down and distance, quality of opponent (OL, QB, play caller), quality of pass rushers (for example, the Rams leading the league in sack rate in a year in which Aaron Donald won DPOY), etc.    Any thoughts?   Edit: As it relates to the Colts, it seems like their historic ability to outperform league average sack rate while being one of the most conservative blitzing teams is also an outlier. I still think 2023 is unsustainable, but being 3 points higher than average in sack rate definitely seems repeatable.
    • I already have the data exported, I just have to sort it and run some averages. I don't see a trend right away, but let me play with it and see if there's anything to discover.
    • Yeah... that was my way of saying - @Superman, why don't you satisfy my curiosity since I'm lazy to do it myself     Just do a few of the teams with superlow blitz rate like the Colts, If that's the case we should probably see similar trend with them.
    • Should we see if teams that blitz below league average tend to have a higher than average sack rate? I might be able to put that together.
  • Members

×
×
  • Create New...