
Recently Browsing 0 members
 No registered users viewing this page.


Topics

Posts

I’m mainly making a post because I’m bored and can’t wait for training camp to start. I think one aspect that could be affecting our high pressure to sack ratio was that we gave away the quick pass a lot last year because of our young secondary which decreases our pressures per play. So when we force longer developing plays our rushers had more time to attack. I’m not sold on this argument but could help explain an outlier.

I don't see evidence that a lower blitz rate correlates with a higher sack rate. 2023, League average blitz rate was 29%, average sack rate was 28% There were 4 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 34.7% There were 9 teams with a blitz rate of 30% of more; they averaged a sack rate of 30.9% The remaining 19 teams averaged a sack rate of 31.2% 2022, League average blitz rate was 24%, average sack rate was 30% There were 11 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 29.5% There were 8 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 29% The remaining 13 teams averaged a sack rate of 31.2% 2021, League average blitz rate was 27%, average sack rate was 25% There were 4 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 23.3% There were 9 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 23.8% The remaining 19 teams averaged a sack rate of 25.4% 2020, League average blitz rate was 30%, average sack rate was 24% There were 2 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 23% There were 16 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 23.7% The remaining 14 teams averaged a sack rate of 23.7% 2019, League average blitz rate was 29%, average sack rate was 28% There were 3 teams with a blitz rate of 20% or less; they averaged a sack rate of 24.6% There were 12 teams with a blitz rate of 30% or more; they averaged a sack rate of 27.7% The remaining 17 teams averaged a sack rate of 28.3% (The Colts had a blitz rate at or below 20% in four of these five seasons. 2019 is the lone exception, and the Colts blitzed 22.9% that year, so not too far outside the parameter, but still far below league average.) Only once in the last five seasons (2023) have the teams with an extremely low blitz rate averaged a higher sack rate than the teams with a fairly aggressive blitz rate. At the same time, only once (2019) have the teams with an aggressive blitz rate averaged a significantly higher sack rate than the teams with a low blitz rate, and it's only 3.1 points higher. And there's no obvious donut hole of efficiency between the two extremes, as you can see from the teams that blitzed between 20% and 30%; the only years where the middle teams outperformed the league average were 2022 (1.2 points), and 2023 (3.2 points). Another takeway: With the exception of 2022, blitzing more often is more common among NFL teams than blitzing conservatively. On average, 5 teams/year have a blitz rate of 20% or less, while 11 teams/year have a blitz rate of 30% or more. My conclusion: Since there's little variance in sack rate on the basis of blitz percentage, I don't think blitzing or not blitzing is a deciding factor in the quality of the pass rush. It's likely much more circumstantial, and probably difficult to pin down  timing of blitzes, down and distance, quality of opponent (OL, QB, play caller), quality of pass rushers (for example, the Rams leading the league in sack rate in a year in which Aaron Donald won DPOY), etc. Any thoughts? Edit: As it relates to the Colts, it seems like their historic ability to outperform league average sack rate while being one of the most conservative blitzing teams is also an outlier. I still think 2023 is unsustainable, but being 3 points higher than average in sack rate definitely seems repeatable.

I already have the data exported, I just have to sort it and run some averages. I don't see a trend right away, but let me play with it and see if there's anything to discover.

Yeah... that was my way of saying  @Superman, why don't you satisfy my curiosity since I'm lazy to do it myself Just do a few of the teams with superlow blitz rate like the Colts, If that's the case we should probably see similar trend with them.

Should we see if teams that blitz below league average tend to have a higher than average sack rate? I might be able to put that together.


Members
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.