Will the Colts win the AFC South?

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, holeymoley99 said:

I was his biggest fan at Wisconsin...watched so many games just to see the kid play. When he fell to us I honestly couldnt believe it.......KC picked Helarie over him...wth ? Imagine if they picked JT...they would be a dynasty

Yeah I thought Taylor would be good as well coming out, not only has he been good, he has been amazingly great. Ballard nailed that one!

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

 

Still have some holes that needs to be addressed.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Poll so far 37-20 in favor of us winning the division. That is how big it was getting Matt Ryan. A deal for James Bradberry is in the works, if we get him that would really help our secondary out.

[Myles]

25 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Not disrespecting Henry BUT Taylor is a different kind of beast, he has speed Henry can only dream of...he was the best college back ever (Yards per season all time #1) and now is the best in the NFL.

Taylor is close to Henry, but has not overtaken him as the best RB in the league.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, Myles said:

Taylor is close to Henry, but has not overtaken him as the best RB in the league.  

I think he has because of his youth. I would take Taylor.

[holeymoley99]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

Taylor is close to Henry, but has not overtaken him as the best RB in the league.  

I honestly dont think it is close Taylor's numbers dwarf henrys

 

Taylor had 5.5 yards a carry last season, Henry has never had that his entire career and likely never will

[Catloaf]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The one thing that it is a real positive is, Leonard and Nelson both should come in at 100% healthy. Both were playing with nagging injuries all season.

Good point - didnt they get injured in preseason and deal with it all season?

[runthepost]

1 hour ago, holeymoley99 said:

I honestly dont think it is close Taylor's numbers dwarf henrys

 

Taylor had 5.5 yards a carry last season, Henry has never had that his entire career and likely never will

He had 5.4 yards a carry with 378 carries in 2020. We can say Taylor did this and did that but he never did what Henry did in the 2019 playoffs 

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Poll so far 37-20 in favor of us winning the division. That is how big it was getting Matt Ryan. A deal for James Bradberry is in the works, if we get him that would really help our secondary out.

They better hurry because apparently KC offered a 4th and a 6th round pick 

[EastStreet]

I voted yes, simply because, if we don't, that means we suck/fail.

 

Houston - sucks

Jags - long time losers that we still can't beat on the road

TN - average QB and RB coming off major injury.

 

If we can't win the AFCS, Reich needs to go.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I voted yes, simply because, if we don't, that means we suck/fail.

 

Houston - sucks

Jags - long time losers that we still can't beat on the road

TN - average QB and RB coming off major injury.

 

If we can't win the AFCS, Reich needs to go.

My expectations are AFC South Champs and at least 1 playoff win, maybe more depending on matchups.

[coltsfan_canada]

2 hours ago, holeymoley99 said:

I was his biggest fan at Wisconsin...watched so many games just to see the kid play. When he fell to us I honestly couldnt believe it.......KC picked Helarie over him...wth ? Imagine if they picked JT...they would be a dynasty

Lol n Lions picked Swift over JT 

[coltsfan_canada]

48 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I voted yes, simply because, if we don't, that means we suck/fail.

 

Houston - sucks

Jags - long time losers that we still can't beat on the road

TN - average QB and RB coming off major injury.

 

If we can't win the AFCS, Reich needs to go.

 

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, coltsfan_canada said:

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

 

Was trying to stick with the WH gifs, but Reba was smokin' back in the day. 

 

[jonjon]

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

Well, I think the Texans are still a dumpster fire. The Jags should be expected to improve a year removed from Urban M and Lawrence should greatly improve (remember Peyton had a 10 game swap from 3-13 to 13-3 between rookie and year 2).  We always have trouble with the Jags but I wouldn't be shocked if they are actually competitive against teams beside us this year.

 

That said, it'll likely come down to us vs Ten for top spot in afc south. I think with the additions of Ryan and Yannick we have improved from last year.

 

I think we should expect improvement from Dayo and Kwity to the point where our DL is at or near elite with those 2, Yannick, DeFo and Grover.  Our LB unit is very solid with a healthy Maniac, Oke, Speed and Zaire. I like the addition of Facyson though I think we need to upgrade our secondary a bit.

 

On O, I think we automatically improve with addition of Ryan.. but unless we get him serious weapons at TE and WR, and fix the LT position, I don't see us as a major upgrade on O.

 

We should have a slightly easier schedule than Ten, so I'm going to remain optimistic that we win the South... but, there's still a lot of off-season left.  If they continue to improve and we are heading into the regular season with our current wr/te group and banking on Pryor at LT, I'm not going to be too confident. 

This all sums it up for me; well said.

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

Well, I think the Texans are still a dumpster fire. The Jags should be expected to improve a year removed from Urban M and Lawrence should greatly improve (remember Peyton had a 10 game swap from 3-13 to 13-3 between rookie and year 2).  We always have trouble with the Jags but I wouldn't be shocked if they are actually competitive against teams beside us this year.

We are set up well IMO. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

That said, it'll likely come down to us vs Ten for top spot in afc south. I think with the additions of Ryan and Yannick we have improved from last year.

Our secondary is still mediocre, even worse perhaps losing RYS and moving to a scheme that requires a true center fielder. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

I think we should expect improvement from Dayo and Kwity to the point where our DL is at or near elite with those 2, Yannick, DeFo and Grover. 

Gonna be real intersting. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

Our LB unit is very solid with a healthy Maniac, Oke, Speed and Zaire.

Aside from Leonard, we're weak as hell. 

I'd love to think Speed has upside, but not overly excited. 

Oke is just meh. Not saying he can't improve, but he's simply limited from a measurable aspect. 

I love Zaire, but he's a depth guy. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

I like the addition of Facyson though I think we need to upgrade our secondary a bit.

We're down two outside starters and picked up a meh depth guy. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

On O, I think we automatically improve with addition of Ryan.. but unless we get him serious weapons at TE and WR, and fix the LT position, I don't see us as a major upgrade on O.

We sucked at OL and WR last year. Not shocked Wentz struggled. Actually he was top 5 QBR from G4 to G15. Pretty Donnie Darko to think our collapse was on him. 

10 hours ago, CurBeatElite said:

 

We should have a slightly easier schedule than Ten, so I'm going to remain optimistic that we win the South... but, there's still a lot of off-season left.  If they continue to improve and we are heading into the regular season with our current wr/te group and banking on Pryor at LT, I'm not going to be too confident. 

TN's D should be good. Their O is the Q. 

[Colt.45]

I'll say the same thing as last year. The defending division champs are champs for a reason, if we want to take the crown, we're going to have to play like a 12 win team i.e. just be dominant from the word GO. Can we do that? 

 

The Texans might be slightly better, Tennessee ought to be slightly worse, Jacksonville will be much much better. It won't be easy.

 

This division isnt the cupcake many seem to think it is. 

 

*Reich's job, like Ballard's, isnt contingent on winning the AFC South, going to put that out there now not that it'll stop those who've wanted him gone from day 2.

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

I'll say the same thing as last year. The defending division champs are champs for a reason, if we want to take the crown, we're going to have to play like a 12 win team i.e. just be dominant from the word GO. Can we do that? 

 

The Texans might be slightly better, Tennessee ought to be slightly worse, Jacksonville will be much much better. It won't be easy.

[holeymoley99]

8 hours ago, runthepost said:

He had 5.4 yards a carry with 378 carries in 2020. We can say Taylor did this and did that but he never did what Henry did in the 2019 playoffs 

They better hurry because apparently KC offered a 4th and a 6th round pick 

5.4 was Henrey's career year Taylor has already surpassed that in his second season.......Taylor's worst season he averaged 5.0 yards a carry...Henry averaged less then that 4 of his 6 seasons in the league. taylor averages twice as many rec yards per game as Henry and his worst season dwarfed Henry's best. These players are NOT equal in any aspect, sorry numbers tell it all.

[Chucklez]

19 hours ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

you are right they may finish first , they own the colts and their gm has improved the team in the off season, the colts gave trevor the confidence he needed to be elite

Whatever you were smoking when you wrote this, can i get a hit on that?

[shasta519]

21 hours ago, Peterk2011 said:

The Titans were something like 8:1 in games decided by less than 7 points. Maybe it was 7:2 not sure about the exact number, but it was an extremely good record. On the contrary, in 5 of the 8 games the Colts lost, they had 10+ points lead in halfime. These are not sustainable numbers, these use to even out from season to season.

 

All in all, I believe the Titans are not better than the Colts. Actually, I believe the Colts have a slight edge now. It wont be a cakewalk of course, but I don't see it as an uphill battle. If the Colts can / will finish their games, then the division will be up for grabs for them.

 

 

Last season, it appears TEN was 6-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.

 

In 2020, they were 6-2.

 

In 2019, with Tannehill starting, they were 3-1.

 

So they are 15-5 in those games with Tannehill starting.
 

They have already been sustaining those types of numbers for nearly 3 seasons. Not sure why we bank on regression.
 

And with a 30-13 record with Tannehill, they clearly know how to win games. The Colts are 1-4 against them during that time. 

 

I do think the Colts can win more games next year, but I don’t see good reasons why TEN would lose more games next year. They too have made improvements and should get healthy, especially on offense. They get another year in their system and Tannehill is a strong bounceback candidate, given his previous level of performance since taking over…at least no less of one than an older Matt Ryan. 
 

The way I see it…not only do the Colts have to win 2-3 more games, they also will have to beat TEN. Anything can happen of course, but that seems like an uphill battle.

[shasta519]

6 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

I'll say the same thing as last year. The defending division champs are champs for a reason, if we want to take the crown, we're going to have to play like a 12 win team i.e. just be dominant from the word GO. Can we do that? 

 

The Texans might be slightly better, Tennessee ought to be slightly worse, Jacksonville will be much much better. It won't be easy.

 

This division isnt the cupcake many seem to think it is. 

 

*Reich's job, like Ballard's, isnt contingent on winning the AFC South, going to put that out there now not that it'll stop those who've wanted him gone from day 2.

Agree…except not sure why TEN would be worse. They haven’t really lost anybody.
 

On offense, they get back their AP RB, likely added a very good WR2, which they failed to have last year (due to Julio’s injuries), added a receiving TE who is a big improvement over Firkser. That offense could be elite…or damn near it.

 

And the defense was #12 last year (DVOA). I don’t see much reason to think it will get worse, especially if Farley returns and Dupree can stay healthy. It could actually get better. 

[Colt.45]

8 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Agree…except not sure why TEN would be worse. They haven’t really lost anybody.
 

On offense, they get back their AP RB, likely added a very good WR2, which they failed to have last year (due to Julio’s injuries), added a receiving TE who is a big improvement over Firkser. That offense could be elite…or damn near it.

 

And the defense was #12 last year (DVOA). I don’t see much reason to think it will get worse, especially if Farley returns and Dupree can stay healthy. It could actually get better. 

I think they won quite a few one score games last year, and that usually will regress to the mean unless you have a transcendental QB like Andrew Luck who's just a killer in those type of games. Also, I agree that Henry is a specimen but I'm not quite sure what to expect from him. I still have them as my faves to win the division because they're the defending champs, they've gotten past the hump that we're trying to get over. That is a huge mental deal. 

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, Colt.45 said:

I think they won quite a few one score games last year, and that usually will regress to the mean unless you have a transcendental QB like Andrew Luck who's just a killer in those type of games. Also, I agree that Henry is a specimen but I'm not quite sure what to expect from him. I still have them as my faves to win the division because they're the defending champs, they've gotten past the hump that we're trying to get over. That is a huge mental deal. 

Those are good points, but as I posted earlier, they are 15-5 in games decided by 7 pts or less since Week 7 of 2019 (when Tannehill took over). That’s half of their wins since then. And they have been 6-2 each of the past two seasons. For some reason, they just keep winning damn games. 
 

 

[Colt.45]

9 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

Those are good points, but as I posted earlier, they are 15-5 in games decided by 7 pts or less since Week 7 of 2019 (when Tannehill took over). That’s half of their wins since then. And they have been 6-2 each of the past two seasons. For some reason, they just keep winning damn games. 
 

 

Yeah, i dont get it. It

s got to regress to the mean at some point. Vrabel's a good coach and certainly gets his team to stick about but usually you need a serious QB to sustain that kind of advantage and i am torn between past precedence and the fact of Ryan Tannehill as a stone cold killer. With Andrew Luck, it was easy to say Indy could/would keep pulling it off because well, Andrew Luck.

 

We'll see. I have them 1a and the Colts 1b

[C_Lew]

The biggest ? for the Titans right now is their OL. They have an aging, often-injured LT. They also have concerns at LG and RT. Titans really struggled with pass protection last year. 
 

On defense, they were really good last year. They look good on paper for this season, too. ILB is about the only spot where they appear a little weak.

[jonjon]

19 hours ago, holeymoley99 said:

I was his biggest fan at Wisconsin...watched so many games just to see the kid play. When he fell to us I honestly couldnt believe it.......KC picked Helarie over him...wth ? Imagine if they picked JT...they would be a dynasty

In fairness, his rep was great runner but not much of a receiver and some fumbling issues. But yeah, no complaints!

 

Re the AFC South, it will be tough to beat out the Titans, but very reachable. Although all I really care about is making the playoffs and do we have what it takes to get a ring. At this point I say no but who knows.

[AwesomeAustin]

22 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The one thing that it is a real positive is, Leonard and Nelson both should come in at 100% healthy. Both were playing with nagging injuries all season.

Both were near elite too. People don’t understand how good those two players are.  They have HOF written all over them.  I don’t care if they are at “less valuable” positions.  They are great and I like to watch greatness any chance I can. 

[AltonioRodriguizDelToro]

We will absolutely win the south. Ice will have a chip on his shoulder. He will establish us as the team to beat with the running game and defense. He has done more with less.  Colts are loaded compared to the Falcons of the past few years. 

[C_Lew]

13 hours ago, AwesomeAustin said:

Both were near elite too. People don’t understand how good those two players are.  They have HOF written all over them.  I don’t care if they are at “less valuable” positions.  They are great and I like to watch greatness any chance I can. 

Agreed, both are tremendous players and great leaders, too. Nelson is about as good as it gets for OL. And Leonard is the definition of a game changer on defense. He’s like an Ed Reed at the ILB position. 

[BlackTiger]

The colts are favorites in the south as of right now, i do think we can win it.  the Titans odds are not far behind

 

The texans are currently the worst team in the league on paper

[chad72]

Reich did not win the AFC South even with Luck, so I voted No, till I start seeing this team can close out games in the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan is known for coming up short in big moments as well, although Wentz not having a single 4th qtr. comeback the entire year would not be hard to beat. 

 

Titans match up better defensively, based on current personnel vs the Chiefs / Chargers / Raiders kind, IMO, and we play the AFC West. With a division winner schedule, they beat the SB champs Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills last year to clinch AFC No.1 and their coach Vrabel has instilled the identity of playing 60 minutes down to the wire much like his Patriots days. 

 

Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong but the above facts make me hard to wear blue colored glasses at this moment. 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

21 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Reich did not win the AFC South even with Luck, so I voted No, till I start seeing this team can close out games in the 4th quarter. Matt Ryan is known for coming up short in big moments as well, although Wentz not having a single 4th qtr. comeback the entire year would not be hard to beat. 

 

Titans match up better defensively, based on current personnel vs the Chiefs / Chargers / Raiders kind, IMO, and we play the AFC West. With a division winner schedule, they beat the SB champs Rams, Chiefs, Seahawks, Bills last year to clinch AFC No.1 and their coach Vrabel has instilled the identity of playing 60 minutes down to the wire much like his Patriots days. 

 

Of course, I hope I am 100% wrong but the above facts make me hard to wear blue colored glasses at this moment. 

 

Out of active QB's Matt Ryan has the 3rd most comebacks out of any QB's, only behind Tom Brady who has played 2 decades, Matt Stafford has 34, and Matt Ryan has 33. Because the Falcons didn't close in the SB back in 2016 that is all people seem to remember. Matt Ryan wasn't the reason why the Falcons lost that SB, it was coaching and the D that cost them that game. Let me repeat Matt Ryan has had 33 come from behind wins on some crap teams.

 

The year Frank had Luck, Luck was coming off injury and we dug a 1-5 hole, guess what happened in the playoffs, we beat the so called division champs in Houston who had Watson, Watt, and Hopkins on there home turf.

[chad72]

1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Out of active QB's Matt Ryan has the 3rd most comebacks out of any QB's, only behind Tom Brady who has played 2 decades, Matt Stafford has 34, and Matt Ryan has 33. Because the Falcons didn't close in the SB back in 2016 that is all people seem to remember. Matt Ryan wasn't the reason why the Falcons lost that SB, it was coaching and the D that cost them that game. Let me repeat Matt Ryan has had 33 come from behind wins on some crap teams.

 

The year Frank we had Luck, Luck was coming off injury and we dug a 1-5 hole, guess what happened in the playoffs, we beat the so called division champs in Houston who had Watson, Watt, and Hopkins on there home turf.

 

Matt Ryan is 1-3 in road playoff games and 3-3 in home playoff games. He could however be a regular season hero like Peyton though. Eerily similar records. We will see how things go. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

Matt Ryan is 1-3 in road playoff games and 3-3 in home playoff games. He could however be a regular season hero like Peyton though. Eerily similar records. We will see how things go. 

Matt Stafford had never won a playoff game in his career until last year, then he won a SB. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

On 3/28/2022 at 12:38 PM, shasta519 said:

Last season, it appears TEN was 6-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.

 

In 2020, they were 6-2.

 

In 2019, with Tannehill starting, they were 3-1.

 

So they are 15-5 in those games with Tannehill starting.
 

They have already been sustaining those types of numbers for nearly 3 seasons. Not sure why we bank on regression.
 

And with a 30-13 record with Tannehill, they clearly know how to win games. The Colts are 1-4 against them during that time. 

 

I do think the Colts can win more games next year, but I don’t see good reasons why TEN would lose more games next year. They too have made improvements and should get healthy, especially on offense. They get another year in their system and Tannehill is a strong bounceback candidate, given his previous level of performance since taking over…at least no less of one than an older Matt Ryan. 
 

The way I see it…not only do the Colts have to win 2-3 more games, they also will have to beat TEN. Anything can happen of course, but that seems like an uphill battle.

I am still not buying that they do the same thing this upcoming season. They have been one of the luckiest teams I have ever seen over the last 2 years. Law of averages says they will lose several close games this season. We lost 3 crucial games by 6 points or less = Ravens in OT, Titans (2nd game), and Raiders. We had Wentz at QB, put Matt Ryan in his place I doubt that happens.

[2006Coltsbestever]

16 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

The colts are favorites in the south as of right now, i do think we can win it.  the Titans odds are not far behind

 

The texans are currently the worst team in the league on paper

Last I seen Vegas has us favored winning the South at a 48% chance, they had the Titans at a 47% chance (so that is close), Jacksonville at 4%, Houston at 1%. Imagine putting 100 on Houston to win the division at 1% odds  . That would be a gigantic payoff if they won the division. 

[chad72]

28 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Matt Stafford had never won a playoff game in his career until last year, then he won a SB. 

 

Talent level on Rams is at a different level than that of the Colts, comparing the time when Stafford joined the Rams vs the time Ryan joined the Colts. Right now, we would be happy if we can win the division. So, one step at a time. 

[runthepost]

18 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am still not buying that they do the same thing this upcoming season. They have been one of the luckiest teams I have ever seen over the last 2 years. Law of averages says they will lose several close games this season. We lost 3 crucial games by 6 points or less = Ravens in OT, Titans (2nd game), and Raiders. We had Wentz at QB, put Matt Ryan in his place I doubt that happens.

They win close games because Vabriel executes better than Reich does in close moments. He doesn’t try flashy plays in key moments