Colts First Round Draft Pick Next Year?

[King Colt]

The Colts traded a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional 2nd-round pick to Philadelphia in exchange for Wentz this offseason. The conditions of the 2022 selection becoming a first-rounder entail Wentz playing 75 percent of the Colts snaps in 2021 or playing 70 percent of the snaps and Indy making the playoffs. If he's out the full 12 weeks, that would put a first-round pick being sent the Eagles' way in jeopardy. Play Wentz 75% and lose a first round pick if the draft includes a bunch of top rated QBs? Since Wentz was horrible in his last season and no guarantee he will be better why risk it?

[DougDew]

In terms of games and not snaps and a 17 game schedule, and assuming he takes 100% of the snaps in the games he plays, obviously if he misses 4 games the draft pick moves to a 1st, if its 5 games it stays a 2.

 

I doubt that we go to the playoffs if Wentz misses 4 or 5 games, so I'm thinking the 75% will be the trigger number.

[Myles]

7 minutes ago, King Colt said:

Can anyone lay out the exact details of the impact of the Wentz injury situation to the chances of the Colts getting a No.1 draft pick next year? 

If Wentz plays 75% of the snaps this season or 70% and the Colts make the playoffs, the Eagle get our 1st round pick.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/carson-wentz-trade-details-injury-eagles/nu9obary5xaw11k95aes13sng

[AwesomeAustin]

It would be a terrible decision to purposely not allow Wentz to play to avoid the terms of the conditional pick being upgraded to a 1st round selection.  No team would ever allow us to use this in future negotiations.  If Wentz is able to play and is our best chance at winning, he will play.  

[Archer]

Hoping Wentz can’t do 75% is no way to go.  I personally think he’s going to be working on the side at 4 weeks, and I can’t imagine that Wentz playing in pain won’t be be a better option than Eason playing before he’s ready…

[Myles]

I would pull him in any game that is out of reach (winning or losing).  Up 35-10 midway through the 4th, it would be Eason time.   

[Korey]

10 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

It would be a terrible decision to purposely not allow Wentz to play to avoid the terms of the conditional pick being upgraded to a 1st round selection.  No team would ever allow us to use this in future negotiations.  If Wentz is able to play and is our best chance at winning, he will play.  

Exactly! Not sure why anyone would think the Colts would let a healthy Wentz sit out to avoid giving up 1st rd pick. The best situation is that Wentz comes back and plays 70 or 75% of the snaps. This gives the Colts the best option at having a successful season. 

[The Fish]

19 minutes ago, Myles said:

I would pull him in any game that is out of reach (winning or losing).  Up 35-10 midway through the 4th, it would be Eason time.   

This is how it should be handled. It won't be for any number of reasons.

 

Quick aside: This whole story is being covered from the prism of how the Eagles fans feel about Wentz. I shouldn't be surprised, but it's getting darn annoying. 

[The Fish]

33 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

 No team would ever allow us to use this in future negotiations. 

Nah, he showed up with a bad foot that got aggravated.. If anything the Colts shouldn't be eager to try this kind of thing again, anyway.

[Myles]

1 minute ago, The Fish said:

This is how it should be handled. It won't be for any number of reasons.

 

Quick aside: This whole story is being covered from the prism of how the Eagles fans feel about Wentz. I shouldn't be surprised, but it's getting darn annoying. 

Yeah, they will play him when he is ready.  

[chad72]

With a tough schedule right off the bat, our best chance for making the playoffs is if Wentz doesn't miss any more than 2 games and comes back before the 1st divisional round game vs the Titans in week 3. Otherwise, the hole will be too deep to climb out of, and we might end up picking in the top half of the draft if Wentz misses anything close to 5-6 games. 

 

So, a pick in the low 40s or a pick in the 20s given to the Eagles by making the playoffs with Wentz playing most of the games, that is what I see the Colts giving up to the Eagles.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

With a tough schedule right off the bat, our best chance for making the playoffs is if Wentz doesn't miss any more than 2 games and comes back before the 1st divisional round game vs the Titans in week 3. Otherwise, the hole will be too deep to climb out of, and we might end up picking in the top half of the draft if Wentz misses anything close to 5-6 games. 

 

So, a pick in the low 40s or a pick in the 20s given to the Eagles by making the playoffs with Wentz playing most of the games, that is what I see the Colts giving up to the Eagles.

Yep, the more time that Wentz misses, the more likely we keep a top 16 1st round pick. 

 

If he plays early, we give up a bottom 10 1st round pick and our 1st pick of the draft will be about pick 53.

 

And the estimations are is that he'll be returning right around that 70 -75 percent snap mark.

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yep, the more time that Wentz misses, the more likely we keep a top 16 1st round pick. 

 

If he plays early, we give up a bottom 10 1st round pick and our 1st pick of the draft will be about pick 53.

 

And the estimations are is that he'll be returning right around that 70 -75 percent snap mark.

 

I am sure Eagles fans want the worst of both worlds for us, for Wentz to hit the 70-75% mark but for us to miss the playoffs by a mile to give them a pick in the teens. However, if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it does make sense to give Eason more reps at that point in time, and it would be Doug Pederson deja vu for Eagles fans.

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, King Colt said:

The Colts traded a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional 2nd-round pick to Philadelphia in exchange for Wentz this offseason. The conditions of the 2022 selection becoming a first-rounder entail Wentz playing 75 percent of the Colts snaps in 2021 or playing 70 percent of the snaps and Indy making the playoffs. If he's out the full 12 weeks, that would put a first-round pick being sent the Eagles' way in jeopardy. Play Wentz 75% and lose a first round pick if the draft includes a bunch of top rated QBs? Since Wentz was horrible in his last season and no guarantee he will be better why risk it?

 

Why risk what? The 1st round pick? I am pretty sure that is not going to happen now. 

[DougDew]

14 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I am sure Eagles fans want the worst of both worlds for us, for Wentz to hit the 70-75% mark but for us to miss the playoffs by a mile to give them a pick in the teens. However, if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it does make sense to give Eason more reps at that point in time, and it would be Doug Pederson deja vu for Eagles fans.

If Wentz misses 4 games we could be 1-3 or 0-4.  Tough to get to the playoffs when Wentz returns because he's not going to run the table with wins.

 

I definitely would pull Wentz at any time the outcome of a game or the season has been determined.  He's got an injury history and Eason looks like a keeper who could use the reps.  I would not keep him in just to impress the NFL that we are not trying to screw the Eagles.

 

Wentz returning late gives us about pick 16.  Wentz returning just a bit sooner than that gives us pick 53.  I'd rather go 8-8 and miss the playoffs than 10-6 or 11-5 and one and done for the incremental increase in draft position.

 

Pick 16 could be that long term LT, that long term replacement for TY, or a shut down corner.  A core player at an important position for the next 8 years.  

 

Or a franchise QB.

[shasta519]

7 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I am sure Eagles fans want the worst of both worlds for us, for Wentz to hit the 70-75% mark but for us to miss the playoffs by a mile to give them a pick in the teens. However, if we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, it does make sense to give Eason more reps at that point in time, and it would be Doug Pederson deja vu for Eagles fans.

 

Right. Colts would definitely be within their right to bench Wentz in that scenario.

 

However, and PHI knows this, that would effectively end the Wentz era in IND. 

 

The optics around doing that are bad, as it shows you are placing more importance on a draft pick than the rest of the team. The only real way to spin that is that you are basically moving on from Wentz and now giving Eason a chance for the following season.

 

And even if you wanted to keep Wentz after that, you now have a healthy Wentz getting benched twice in two years...yikes.

 

Not to mention that the Colts need as much as time they can get to assess Wentz in this offense and feel confident in committing to him next year. 

 

I think the conditional pick was really all about injury risk. If you look at Wentz's career, he has played 83% of snaps (for various reasons). However, if you look at since his ACL tear (2018-on), that number drops to 79% because it's a combo of injury AND bad performance.

 

Ballard definitely saw the risk with Wentz, hence the condition.

[Smonroe]

Wentz looked great in the limited time he practiced.  No one can say how he'll look when not wearing a red jersey.  But I think most of us think he'll bounce back and be on his way to being the star he was a few years ago.

 

All that being said, a franchise QB like him is worth more than a first round pick IMHO.  In my mind, that pick is gone next year and I'm happy about it.  But - again - no one is going to know either way for a while.  So why worry about it?

[Myles]

What if: Wentz misses a couple games but by week 18 he has taken 80% of the snaps.

The Colts are 9-7 and have been eliminated from the playoffs.   If he doesn't play in the 17th game against the Jags he will fall below 75% and the Colts would get the 1st round pick (around 16-18).

Would Ballard/Reich sit him?

 

 

[DougDew]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

What if: Wentz misses a couple games but by week 18 he has taken 80% of the snaps.

The Colts are 9-7 and have been eliminated from the playoffs.   If he doesn't play in the 17th game against the Jags he will fall below 75% and the Colts would get the 1st round pick (around 16-18).

Would Ballard/Reich sit him?

 

 

With his injury history, why not?

[shasta519]

19 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If Wentz misses 4 games we could be 1-3 or 0-4.  Tough to get to the playoffs when Wentz returns because he's not going to run the table with wins.

 

I definitely would pull Wentz at any time the outcome of a game or the season has been determined.  He's got an injury history and Eason looks like a keeper who could use the reps.  I would not keep him in just to impress the NFL that we are not trying to screw the Eagles.

 

Wentz returning late gives us about pick 16.  Wentz returning just a bit sooner than that gives us pick 53.  I'd rather go 8-8 and miss the playoffs than 10-6 or 11-5 and one and done for the incremental increase in draft position.

 

Pick 16 could be that long term LT, that long term replacement for TY, or a shut down corner.  A core player at an important position for the next 8 years.  

 

Or a franchise QB.

 

But when has an outcome been determined though? Do we really envision the Colts blowing out teams to the point that they can take out their starting QB for a sizable part of the 4th Q? I would agree that, if the Colts are winning by 30, they can take out Wentz.

 

But taking out Wentz when they are losing (even by 3 scores) would just be defeatist. And I am sure that will go over well in the locker room...not to mention with a Type A like Wentz. 

 

Besides, if the Colts are getting blown out, there are bigger problems than trying to protect that 1st round pick.

 

I think these creative, kid glove approaches to Wentz just re-enforce why this trade was a stinker. He's obviously injury-prone, which is why there was a condition in the trade. And injuries have already been a big issue. And now people are worried about protecting a 1st round pick because people don't think he is worth it anyways. If people thought he was worth it and a legit franchise QB going forward, nobody would bat an eye about 32 spots in the draft.

 

I think Ballard's sole focus when Wentz returns should (and will likely) be to give him every chance to prove that Wentz at QB is the right direction for the Colts going forward. If I had to guess, that is much more important to Ballard than 32 spots in the draft. 

 

So if he is playing well, then you keep playing him to finish strong. And even if Wentz somehow convinces Ballard after a few games that he is the guy, then you keep playing him because he's your franchise QB.

 

JMO, but if you are putting Eason back in at any point (unless it's a massive blowout win), it's because you are moving from Wentz and want to give Eason reps. OR I suppose it's because you won 14 games and have HFA haha.

[Myles]

6 minutes ago, DougDew said:

With his injury history, why not?

Would they think that they were doing something against the spirit of the trade if they sit him.  

I would hope they would value the draft pick more and sit him.

[DougDew]

10 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

But when has an outcome been determined though? Do we really envision the Colts blowing out teams to the point that they can take out their starting QB for a sizable part of the 4th Q? I would agree that, if the Colts are winning by 30, they can take out Wentz.

 

But taking out Wentz when they are losing (even by 3 scores) would just be defeatist. And I am sure that will go over well in the locker room...not to mention with a Type A like Wentz. 

 

Besides, if the Colts are getting blown out, there are bigger problems than trying to protect that 1st round pick.

 

I think these creative, kid glove approaches to Wentz just re-enforce why this trade was a stinker. He's obviously injury-prone, which is why there was a condition in the trade. And injuries have already been a big issue. And now people are worried about protecting a 1st round pick because people don't think he is worth it anyways. If people thought he was worth it and a legit franchise QB going forward, nobody would bat an eye about 32 spots in the draft.

 

I think Ballard's sole focus when Wentz returns should (and will likely) be to give him every chance to prove that Wentz at QB is the right direction for the Colts going forward. If I had to guess, that is much more important to Ballard than 32 spots in the draft. 

 

So if he is playing well, then you keep playing him to finish strong. And even if Wentz somehow convinces Ballard after a few games that he is the guy, then you keep playing him because he's your franchise QB.

 

JMO, but if you are putting Eason back in at any point (unless it's a massive blowout win), it's because you are moving from Wentz and want to give Eason reps. OR I suppose it's because you won 14 games and have HFA haha.

I think you're over thinking this. 

 

Putting in a backup does not mean a team is moving on from the starter.  Eason has not played much football in his career and getting game time helps the team.  That's the reason I would do it over any other reason, but the injury history and the draft pick do contribute to the same decision.

 

Its grooming Eason as a starter when Wentz retires, or if Wentz stays it creates a market for Eason.  Wentz isn't going to care if he misses the last meaningless game of the season.  And the rest of the team will do their jobs and also rally around Eason for that last game to get him a win.

[Architects08]

Spencer Rattler #1 overall. 

[shasta519]

5 minutes ago, Myles said:

Would they think that they were doing something against the spirit of the trade if they sit him.  

I would hope they would value the draft pick more and sit him.

 

I think it's the wrong move on so many levels. Integrity of the trade of course, but even of the game itself.

 

Not to mention how do we see it playing out?

 

This is what Wentz was doing in his team's final game of the past 4 years: 

 

2017 - out recovering from a torn ACL

2018 - out recovering from back surgery

2019 - concussed on the sidelines

2020 - riding the bench in favor of a younger QB

 

Now, in a season where he has already likely missed games, Reich and Ballard are going to ask (or tell) him to take one for the team and sit the last game/s out so the Colts don't lose 32 spots in the draft. The HC that loves him and the team that believes in him so much that they traded for him...yet are worried about losing 32 spots in the draft. Not to mention he now gets to watch yet another younger QB prospect play in his place.

 

That is pretty mixed message. And that is just to Wentz. What is the rest of the locker room going to think? Not to mention he gets to watch another younger QB prospect play in his place.

 

I don't think it will come to this anyways because this foot injury will keep him out past the threshold.

[Myles]

8 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

I think it's the wrong move on so many levels. Integrity of the trade of course, but even of the game itself.

 

Not to mention how do we see it playing out?

 

This is what Wentz was doing in his team's final game of the past 4 years: 

 

2017 - out recovering from a torn ACL

2018 - out recovering from back surgery

2019 - concussed on the sidelines

2020 - riding the bench in favor of a younger QB

 

Now, in a season where he has already likely missed games, Reich and Ballard are going to ask (or tell) him to take one for the team and sit the last game/s out so the Colts don't lose 32 spots in the draft. The HC that loves him and the team that believes in him so much that they traded for him...yet are worried about losing 32 spots in the draft. Not to mention he now gets to watch yet another younger QB prospect play in his place.

 

That is pretty mixed message. And that is just to Wentz. What is the rest of the locker room going to think? Not to mention he gets to watch another younger QB prospect play in his place.

 

I don't think it will come to this anyways because this foot injury will keep him out past the threshold.

I totally disagree.   Give Wentz some credit, he'd be fine "taking one for the team".

You devalue a mid round first round pick way too much.   Especially with Ballard having it.  

[shasta519]

12 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think you're over thinking this. 

 

Putting in a backup does not mean a team is moving on from the starter.  Eason has not played much football in his career and getting game time helps the team.  That's the reason I would do it over any other reason, but the injury history and the draft pick do contribute to the same decision.

 

Its grooming Eason as a starter when Wentz retires, or if Wentz stays it creates a market for Eason.  Wentz isn't going to care if he misses the last meaningless game of the season.  And the rest of the team will do their jobs and also rally around Eason for that last game to get him a win.

 

SBut we really have no idea if the bolded is true. Wentz has missed the "last game of the season" for various reasons the past 4 seasons. And he will have missed time already this season as well. It could be a very real milestone for him.

 

Confidence at QB is paramount, especially for a guy who they are trying to put back together. So sitting out the final game because the team thinks you could hurt, or because the team doesn't want to lose 32 spots in the draft, doesn't really seem like the way to help build that confidence.

 

And if he's supposed to be the Colts franchise QB, you let him finish the season strong anyways. Just look at Luck, He had injury issues by 2016 (including a torn labrum), but there was no way he was sitting out that meaningless Week 17 game against JAC (the infamous fist bump after the comeback win). 

 

Maybe you are right and Wentz is a team player, but he's still a very competitive athlete and a Type A. And for some reason, I don't think getting his competition/potential replacement more snaps is going to persuade him to take a seat. 

 

And having the rest of the team rally around the other QB to get him a win while Wentz watches sounds way too familiar.  

 

I don't even think you can overthink this...there are so many variables at play. Don't get me wrong...I want to keep that 1st round pick as much as anybody. But the way to do that is organically with a slower rehab process (which is what I think happens), not by intentionally reducing snaps after he comes back. Once he's back, he's the guy unless they want to move on and put in Eason.

 

[craigerb]

4 hours ago, Myles said:

If Wentz plays 75% of the snaps this season or 70% and the Colts make the playoffs, the Eagle get our 1st round pick.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/carson-wentz-trade-details-injury-eagles/nu9obary5xaw11k95aes13sng

Does anyone know if "offensive snaps" includes punts?

[craigerb]

4 hours ago, Korey said:

Q. Not sure why anyone would think the Colts would let a healthy Wentz sit out to avoid giving up 1st rd pick.

A. To avoid giving up 1st rd pick.

[Korey]

1 minute ago, craigerb said:

A. To avoid giving up 1st rd pick.

So your telling me Ballard would be willing to do that?

Ballard isn't going to stand in front of the team on exit meetings and tell them sorry but we didn't want to give up the 1st round pick so we didn't play a healthy Wentz. 

[Myles]

21 minutes ago, Korey said:

So your telling me Ballard would be willing to do that?

Ballard isn't going to stand in front of the team on exit meetings and tell them sorry but we didn't want to give up the 1st round pick so we didn't play a healthy Wentz. 

I agree except if it was the last game of the season and was meaningless to the Colts.   

[craigerb]

23 minutes ago, Korey said:

Ballard isn't going to stand in front of the team on exit meetings and tell them sorry but we didn't want to give up the 1st round pick so we didn't play a healthy Wentz. 

They're big boys--I'm sure they can figure it out.
The real question is: do the players want a RD1 pick that will be competing with them for a job?

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

I totally disagree.   Give Wentz some credit, he'd be fine "taking one for the team".

You devalue a mid round first round pick way too much.   Especially with Ballard having it.  

 

I would say you are giving him too much credit. Healthy QB1s just don't sit out, unless it's rest for the playoffs. 

 

We care, but why should Wentz care about getting Eason getting more snaps or the Colts "dodging a bullet" by not losing 32 spots in the draft? 

 

We all know Wentz's history with Foles and Hurts. He's also the same competitor who stayed in after tearing his ACL in 2017 and then wanted to keep playing with a back injury in 2018. And now he's going to just sit out the final game of the season where he is trying to re-establish himself and revive his career?

 

I mean...what happens if Eason plays well in the early season games and then Wentz takes over and is shaky. He's just going to just sit out and let Eason potentially end on a high note? 

 

But it's not even all about Wentz. Ballard and Reich are far too aware to ask Wentz to take a back seat and watch his backup finish the season for the 5TH time in a row (especially after Wentz will be watching that backup start the season). If they want to give Eason more snaps, it's because he could be their next option at QB...not to get one over on PHI. Wentz is the guy until he isn't and they let him finish strong.

 

It is just not worth getting cute and doing this, on so many levels. And it doesn't matter who is drafting that pick.

 

But we will have agree to disagree.

[shasta519]

34 minutes ago, craigerb said:

They're big boys--I'm sure they can figure it out.
The real question is: do the players want a RD1 pick that will be competing with them for a job?

 

This is an excellent point that I didn't make because my posts were already getting too long.

 

Beyond the mixed message it could send to the locker room about winning vs. draft capital, why would the rest of the team even care about losing those 32 spots? We have heard players talk about how they abhor tanking...and that actually serves the purpose of getting their most important player.

But in this case, and to your point, staying in the middle of the 1st round just increases the chance that another top tier prospect is coming in to take their job. And there's probably 5 or so players in that locker room that legitimately don't have to worry about that.

 

It's really just the fans who even care more about the upside of benching Wentz than the downside.

[MB-ColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

Would they think that they were doing something against the spirit of the trade if they sit him.  

I would hope they would value the draft pick more and sit him.

Maybe Ballard should talk to the  Giants about Philly playing in the spirit of the game/trade.  Just sayin'...

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Korey said:

So your telling me Ballard would be willing to do that?

Ballard isn't going to stand in front of the team on exit meetings and tell them sorry but we didn't want to give up the 1st round pick so we didn't play a healthy Wentz. 

100 Percent Korey!   You win.   You get to drop the Mic!!

 

People here who want to bench Wentz enough to keep our first are way, Way WAY overthinking this.   We’ve developed a very special culture.  Taking to keep a better draft pick goes against our culture and would be terrible for our locker room.   Ballard would never do it.   Never. 
 

Nicely done, Korey!      

 

 

[Four2itus]

Not using your best people to win, is for losers.

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Korey said:

So your telling me Ballard would be willing to do that?

Ballard isn't going to stand in front of the team on exit meetings and tell them sorry but we didn't want to give up the 1st round pick so we didn't play a healthy Wentz. 

 

Couldn't you just see Leonard saying "We always play to win. It would have been nice to have Carson out there today, but we all know how valuable that draft pick is to Ballard."

 

And then you got the guys who are playing for second contracts (who don't need a high-drafted rookie coming in) or a guy like TY who might be suiting up in Indy for the last time.

 

People talk about Colture...but it is much better message to both the locker room AND Wentz to say "* the pick...Wentz is our guy now" and then finish the season strong. I know that sounds meatballish, like something Gettleman would do, but it's actually the play here.

 

I just look at what happened when Doug Pederson got cute in Week 17 last season. That's a much more extreme example and a very dysfunctional org, but healthy players on non-playoff teams don't seem to respond well to their QBs being benched like that.

[Coltsfan98]

I still hope it's the Eagles and the later the better!

[craigerb]

On 8/3/2021 at 11:36 AM, shasta519 said:

 And it doesn't matter who is drafting that [RD1] pick.

On the contrary, it matters a lot to the Eagles and us.

 

[shasta519]

6 hours ago, craigerb said:

On the contrary, it matters a lot to the Eagles and us.

 

I was exaggerating. My point was that if Wentz solidifies the QB role going forward and the Colts have to surrender that 1st round pick, the pick is fairly unimportant in the large scheme of things…even with Ballard drafting. 
 

So IMO, even though Ballard has drafted some really good players, I just don’t see them benching Wentz to save that pick.