Jonathan Taylor ranked as the 16th best RB in the NFL

[EastStreet]

24 minutes ago, twfish said:

Yes................ But it is by an outlet that pretty well goes out of their way to devalue that position. If someone hates ice cream but ranks their top flavors I'm not going to hold it in a very high regard.....

Not a good comp.

If someone hates Ice Cream, they are not eating all the flavors, and writing about it.

 

You may think PFF devalues RBs, and to be honest, the league devalues RBs them (as does analytics in general), but they still watch them and grade them with the same effort as every other position. 

 

Is there any specific flaw in PFF's process, or lack of effort, that you are aware of?

[gspdx]

29 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm totally shocked that people are discussing on a discussion board in the off season... 

Shocked I tell you!

 

I agree!  Why don't we just all mind our own business.

 

 

On a more serious note.  I think we should give JT a little more time before we start comparing him to anyone.  Too small of a sample size at this point in my opinion.

 

I would love to see the Colts have a running back that had the kind of impact James did.  The game has changed, but one thing hasn't.  A strong running game forces defenses to respect the run and can open up the passing game.  JT showed some real promise last year and I hope by the end of next season we can actually say he is performing like a top 5 running back.  

[TheNextGM]

JT is going off this year..

 

25 total TDS!

[EastStreet]

12 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

I agree!  Why don't we just all mind our own business.

 

 

On a more serious note.  I think we should give JT a little more time before we start comparing him to anyone.  Too small of a sample size at this point in my opinion.

 

I would love to see the Colts have a running back that had the kind of impact James did.  The game has changed, but one thing hasn't.  A strong running game forces defenses to respect the run and can open up the passing game.  JT showed some real promise last year and I hope by the end of next season we can actually say he is performing like a top 5 running back.  

James is one of my favorite all time Colts. Total beast, and loved his personality. 

 

Regardless of ranking, he's got enough skill, and we have the OL, for him to easily be top 10 in yards so long as we're not hampered by injury. And that will be good enough to give us balance. I'm more concerned with the passing game to be honest.

[EastStreet]

20 hours ago, TonyBungee said:

If Mack stays healthy all year, then in terms of overall production 16th might not be too far off for JT.  In fact, if both stay healthy I could see both in the top 20 RBs in yards & TDs.  If Mack had signed with someone else in the off-season, I would definitely have JT in the top 10.

We averaged a little under 30 carries per game last season. So even if he gets only half of those carries (15ish), he could still easily end up with 1000+ yards, even if he averaged a little less.

 

17 games x 15 carries x 4.5 ypc (he averaged 5.0 last season) = 1147.5 yards

 

And given we'll still play 4 games vs Jax and Houston (who likely won't be a lot better vs the run), he'll have some opportunity to go off several times. It's what he does early in the season against some of the better run Ds that will speak volumes.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This is ridiculous. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, twfish said:

Yes................ But it is by an outlet that pretty well goes out of their way to devalue that position. If someone hates ice cream but ranks their top flavors I'm not going to hold it in a very high regard.....

 

Got it. Fair enough.

[John Waylon]

PFF is like asking what time it is, and instead they demonstrate how to build the watch, but do so in a bowl full of pudding to make it as clear as a litter box full of cat turds. The result winds up being little more than chaotic confusion. 
 

Try a palm reader instead. You’ll have to sort through less nonsense. 

[bleevit]

Is it even possible to rush for that many yards as a rookie and be ranked 16th. I'd love to find out how that ranking was decided. I guess the Colts' O-line gets a lot of respect, but still...... I, for one, am glad he's a Colt. 

[Stephen]

On 5/26/2021 at 10:34 AM, JediXMan said:

There’s only 4-5 RBs I’ll take over Taylor. Even that is a struggle due to his potential, talent and age on his side.

Only two backs I'd take over him. Henry and saquon.

[DownHillRunner]

I think PFF has been hitting the crack pipe since the draft. They've recently made some bogus statements with some bogus rankings. 

[NewColtsFan]

I don’t have a big complaint about 16.   The biggest thing against him is that he’s coming off his rookie year.  Most everyone else has a substantial body of work.  
 

In the years to come, I’d like to see JT at least in the top-12, maybe even the top-10.   And with our commitment to the running game and our OL, I don’t think that should be too hard. 
 

Better days should be ahead for Taylor...

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t have a big complaint about 16.   The biggest thing against him is that he’s coming off his rookie year.  Most everyone else has a substantial body of work.  
 

In the years to come, I’d like to see JT at least in the top-12, maybe even the top-10.   And with our commitment to the running game and our OL, I don’t think that should be too hard. 
 

Better days should be ahead for Taylor...

16 is way too low IMO, not just saying that because I am a Colts fan. I have him 10th after studying everything and going by all the stats and facts @EastStreet posted. East had him 11th. So IMO he is already top 10. If he continues to play like he played in the last half of last season, he could possibly be top 5ish by the end of this season. I don't think 10 is too high or too low. Keep in mind, he still may not have top 5 production stats wise this upcoming season if Mack is healthy. He and Mack will probably split a lot of the carries so statistics can even be deceiving at times. What PFF and many other systems don't figure in is the eye test. That is why many of the systems used to rank players are flawed. They go mainly by stats. I will give you an example of someone looking good on paper but not by the eye test = a RB gaining 30 yards on 14 carries but has 1 45 yard run for a TD, so it shows he has 15 carries for 75 yards (5.0 a carry) but in reality he didn't do didley all game except 1 big run, If someone didn't watch that particular game they would say, so and so had 75 yards and a TD so he did his part when in reality he didn't. Eye test is huge.

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

16 is way too low IMO, not just saying that because I am a Colts fan. I have him 10th after studying everything and going by all the stats and facts @EastStreet posted. East had him 11th. So IMO he is already top 10. If he continues to play like he played in the last half of last season, he could possibly be top 5ish by the end of this season. I don't think 10 is too high or too low. Keep in mind, he still may not have top 5 production stats wise this upcoming season if Mack is healthy. He and Mack will probably split a lot of the carries so statistics can even be deceiving at times. What PFF and many other systems don't figure in is the eye test. That is why many of the systems used to rank players are flawed. They go mainly by stats. I will give you an example of someone looking good on paper but not by the eye test = a RB gaining 30 yards on 14 carries but has 1 45 yard run for a TD, so it shows he has 15 carries for 75 yards (5.0 a carry) but in reality he didn't do didley all game except 1 big run, If someone didn't watch that particular game they would say, so and so had 75 yards and a TD so he did his part when in reality he didn't. Eye test is huge.

But I did include YAContact and Attempts per Broken Tackle, along with Sharp's success rate, all of which are indicators that go beyond just production. One other thing PFF doesn't account for is OL performance, which JT had the benefit of very good run blocking line.

[Four2itus]

ESPN puts him outside the top 10....

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/14/indianapolis-colts-jonathan-taylor-ranking-espn-top-10-2021/

 

I kind of chuckled at the difference in these two statements, however.

 

First...    Taylor is the fourth running back since 2002 to record at least 1,000 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns and 5.0 yards per carry during his rookie season. The others were Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley.

 

Then....  It shouldn’t be expected for Taylor to average 6.7 yards per carry like he did during Weeks 13-17 to end the season 

 

Ummmm.......

 

 

He was at his infamous "Rookie wall", and turned in that late season performance. Obviously there is no way to know, but from what I see, all the arrows point up. 

[NewColtsFan]

32 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

ESPN puts him outside the top 10....

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2021/07/14/indianapolis-colts-jonathan-taylor-ranking-espn-top-10-2021/

 

I kind of chuckled at the difference in these two statements, however.

 

First...    Taylor is the fourth running back since 2002 to record at least 1,000 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns and 5.0 yards per carry during his rookie season. The others were Clinton Portis, Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley.

 

Then....  It shouldn’t be expected for Taylor to average 6.7 yards per carry like he did during Weeks 13-17 to end the season 

 

Ummmm.......

 

 

He was at his infamous "Rookie wall", and turned in that late season performance. Obviously there is no way to know, but from what I see, all the arrows point up. 

Ummmm….   Is your question serious or rhetorical?    
 

Do you think Taylor is going to average 6.7 yards a carry?     Honestly, I’d be beyond thrilled if he averaged 5.7 a carry. 

[Four2itus]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Ummmm….   Is your question serious or rhetorical?    
 

Do you think Taylor is going to average 6.7 yards a carry?     Honestly, I’d be beyond thrilled if he averaged 5.7 a carry. 

It was serious. As a rookie, when he should have been hitting the wall, he ran those numbers. With a year under his belt, and a QB who can stretch the field, I see no reason why he won't repeat or increase his numbers. If he doesn't, Carson. TY, and Parris will be peeling the lid off defenses. 

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, Four2itus said:

It was serious. As a rookie, when he should have been hitting the wall, he ran those numbers. With a year under his belt, and a QB who can stretch the field, I see no reason why he won't repeat or increase his numbers. If he doesn't, Carson. TY, and Parris will be peeling the lid off defenses. 

The reason Taylor averaged 6.7 per carry is primarily due to the teams we played sucked on run defense.   Also, by then, the OL as a group was blocking better. 

 

You can go back as far as you like to see how many times a RB averaged 6.7 in a season — any season with more than 225 carries.   I’m sure that number is under 5, likely less than 3 and might even hit zero.  6.7 is just not sustainable for a season, whether it’s 14 games, 16 games or even 17 games.   

[Zoltan]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:09 AM, EastStreet said:

I'm sure some will have a melt down over this.

And the PFF haters will make their usual "PFF is XXX" comment.... lol

 

 

 

Slow part of the year, so I thought I would add my two cents.

 

Honestly I think it's a pretty good ranking and had a lot of RBs where I thought they were like Zeke at the 12th spot. Taylor at 16 makes sense because he had a slow start but finished strong, he could easily make the top 10 if he continues to improve and plays the full season at a high level. The only things I was surprised about was Montgomery ranked 13th and I was surprised to see Hines at 27.

[Four2itus]

49 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You can go back as far as you like to see how many times a RB averaged 6.7 in a season — any season with more than 225 carries. 

I get that. With Mack coming back, I think Taylor will not be the full season horse. I think it's a duo situation. Hey, it's the offseason, and the wellspring of hope is bountiful. 

[compuls1v3]

On 5/25/2021 at 11:09 PM, EastStreet said:

I'm sure some will have a melt down over this.

And the PFF haters will make their usual "PFF is XXX" comment.... lol

 

 

Here’s what I would like to know: where does he rank against all other 1st year RBs?

 

On 5/26/2021 at 7:21 AM, shasta519 said:

Saw people complaining about this over on SB. I don't agree with this PFF writer's ranking of Taylor...I have him closer to that 10-12 range (if they give him the targets I hope they will). But I also don't agree that's it all that crazy.

 

RBs get very subjective past the top 6-7. Lots of similarly-talented players in different situations which add context. Really depends on what metrics you value as well. PFF has their own apparently.

 

There's a lot of recency bias because of his 5-game stretch to end the season, but Taylor is a second year RB who had an up-and-down rookie season from a production standpoint. I put some of that on coaching and usage, but I can understand why that might cause some hesitation on putting him really high.

 

Also in that stretch, 4/5 of those games came against really bad run defenses in HOU (x2), JAC and LV (not to mention JAC and HOU ended up picking #1 and #3). That was half of his season's production...culminating with a 253 rushing yards in Week 17 against the worst team in the NFL. 

 

I love Taylor and his upside...and that stretch put him on the map as a potential top 12 RB. But now he has to build off that. He does that...and he will rise on a list on this list pretty quickly. 

 

Also, if we are going to object to Taylor being #16...then we should acknowledge that this list gets real goofy in the 25-30 range (and that includes another Colts RB being ranked ahead of some very good second-year RBs). I mean...last year's RB group was loaded...there's a chance that Taylor is a top 10 RB, but not even the best one in that class.

 

The only thing I can say about people stating JT had high yards vs bad run D’s: Isn’t that what a good RB does? Don’t get me wrong, I agree he had a slow start to the season, but this year I feel he’ll start out much stronger.  Here’s to hoping I’m right!!

[JoeThornburg]

On 5/26/2021 at 12:44 AM, Four2itus said:

Not a PFF hater....but that ranking sucks. 

^

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, Four2itus said:

I get that. With Mack coming back, I think Taylor will not be the full season horse. I think it's a duo situation. Hey, it's the offseason, and the wellspring of hope is bountiful. 

 

Even if Taylor only gets 200 carries,  6.7 per carry is a number that is so far out there...    I'm just not sure there's precedent  to point to showing it's been done before?     That's why I was saying I'd be thrilled if he got 5.7 per,  and I wouldn't even predict that....

[JoeThornburg]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Even if Taylor only gets 200 carries,  6.7 per carry is a number that is so far out there...    I'm just not sure there's precedent  to point to showing it's been done before?     That's why I was saying I'd be thrilled if he got 5.7 per,  and I wouldn't even predict that....

To me what matters most, and in my opinion has mattered most in terms of a solid backfield has always been depth. There are still so many metrics that are outside the scope of proper analytic discussion that these grades just irritate me, but again I'm also one of those "eye test" guys. I thought JT had a great season last year and love what he brings to this squad.

[DownHillRunner]

On 5/25/2021 at 10:09 PM, EastStreet said:

I'm sure some will have a melt down over this.

And the PFF haters will make their usual "PFF is XXX" comment.... lol

 

 

 

 

As you know, I got on PFF about Leonard before and you corrected me on it. I have no problem with this list though given how JT started out last season. He could easily crack the top 10 if he has a great sophomore season which I think he will. 

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

As you know, I got on PFF about Leonard before and you corrected me on it. I have no problem with this list though given how JT started out last season. He could easily crack the top 10 if he has a great sophomore season which I think he will. 

Slow start (but not bad for a rook), and big finish (although it was against very bad rush Ds).

 

What I liked most to be honest was his success catching the ball. I didn't expect it at all. I think he'll have a slow start again this year (because we play some great run Ds early), but IMO his timing will get better and better, and with that, more big gains. Given where he came from, I've never doubted his physicality. 

 

But I agree, I don't really have a problem with the rank. I think he'll be top 10 in AVG, and that's what I care about (that and a low fumble rate). If Mack is back an healthy, and if Reich is true to form, I think we'll see a lot of rotation. I'm OK with that. I like a 1-2 of Taylor/Mack a lot better than Taylor/Hines, if we're talking about purely rushing. I'd love to see something close to 15 / 10 / 5 split (we averaged 28.8 rushing attempts per game last year). That would keep everyone fresh.

[EastStreet]

On 7/14/2021 at 9:06 PM, compuls1v3 said:

Here’s what I would like to know: where does he rank against all other 1st year RBs?

#2. 

Gibson was ahead of him in the ranks.

Here's the ranks

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-running-back-rankings-the-32-best-rbs-entering-the-2021-nfl-season

On 7/14/2021 at 9:06 PM, compuls1v3 said:

 

The only thing I can say about people stating JT had high yards vs bad run D’s: Isn’t that what a good RB does? Don’t get me wrong, I agree he had a slow start to the season, but this year I feel he’ll start out much stronger.  Here’s to hoping I’m right!!

He'll be fine, but he just needs to show he can perform like some others do when facing tougher run Ds. And yes, good running backs are supposed to run well vs bad run Ds, but his stats are pretty slanted. One outlier in particular totally tilted his AVGs, and total.

[EastStreet]

On 7/14/2021 at 7:50 PM, Zoltan said:

 

Slow part of the year, so I thought I would add my two cents.

 

Honestly I think it's a pretty good ranking and had a lot of RBs where I thought they were like Zeke at the 12th spot. Taylor at 16 makes sense because he had a slow start but finished strong, he could easily make the top 10 if he continues to improve and plays the full season at a high level. The only things I was surprised about was Montgomery ranked 13th and I was surprised to see Hines at 27.

Agreed.

 

And I think Hines got the nod more of an APB. They even mentioned specifically he's not a bell cow. But he was a great weapon last year. 

 

I'm really interested to see what the rotation will be like this year.

[Zoltan]

16 hours ago, EastStreet said:

Agreed.

 

And I think Hines got the nod more of an APB. They even mentioned specifically he's not a bell cow. But he was a great weapon last year. 

 

I'm really interested to see what the rotation will be like this year.

 

I agree, it will be interesting to see because they're just not enough carries for Taylor, Hines, and Mack. I just hope they use Taylor more in red zone situations.

[chickenMan]

While I don’t think JT is merely the 16th-best RB in the league, it makes senses that’s where the national media would rank him. JT has only played one season. He’s not a big name like Henry or Cook, and he didn’t break out until the second half of the year; outside of Indy he is still very much under the radar. These kinds of rankings always depend on popularity too; if you looked at the tape from last year, JT was clearly better than Elliott on the Cowboys, but because Zeke is a huge name he will be ranked higher. It’s the way the NFL works.

[EastStreet]

On 7/16/2021 at 4:38 PM, Zoltan said:

 

I agree, it will be interesting to see because they're just not enough carries for Taylor, Hines, and Mack. I just hope they use Taylor more in red zone situations.

If Mack is back to health, no reason to use Hines in the RZ unless they want to shoot the edge or sweep, or pass the ball. And regardless, Taylor can catch, shoot the edge, or hit the line hard between the tackles. If they are clearly running, Mack is fine too. Wonder if they attempt to pass it more to him this year. I'd really like to see some 2 back sets though in the RZ as well as 3rd/short situations.

 

I hope Hines isn't a cap casualty after this season. But if Mack is back to health, it may come down to a choice between those two, and Mack might be the cheaper option. 

[NewColtsFan]

14 hours ago, chickenMan said:

While I don’t think JT is merely the 16th-best RB in the league, it makes senses that’s where the national media would rank him. JT has only played one season. He’s not a big name like Henry or Cook, and he didn’t break out until the second half of the year; outside of Indy he is still very much under the radar. These kinds of rankings always depend on popularity too; if you looked at the tape from last year, JT was clearly better than Elliott on the Cowboys, but because Zeke is a huge name he will be ranked higher. It’s the way the NFL works.

For what it’s worth….

 

More than 50 NFL execs, GMs, Scouts and players just voted Taylor as the 11th best running back.   I think that’s a little more fair than the media ranking him 16th. 

One scout said he thinks Taylor may be as high as 5th next year.

[EastStreet]

35 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what it’s worth….

 

More than 50 NFL execs, GMs, Scouts and players just voted Taylor as the 11th best running back.   I think that’s a little more fair than the media ranking him 16th. 

One scout said he thinks Taylor may be as high as 5th next year.

And I'm sure both ranks, regardless if they are from the media or GMs/Scouts/execs, probably factor in pre-2020 performance (which JT doesn't have). 

 

IMO, a case can be made for as high as 4th or 5th, or as low as 16ish. My gut is starting to think 7-10ish, but that could easily be impacted by our rotation.