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Question regarding winning the Division

BProland85

By BProland85
in Colts Football

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Colts1324 Team Captain

Colts1324

Posted
Posted

I hate the conference rule. One team could beat every weak opponent in your conference because you had a bad record the prior year and lose to a top team in the NFC.

 

Another team in the same division or conference could lose to say..the Chiefs and win against GB or New Orleans and lose the tie breaker. 
 

It should be based on strength of schedule and points scored for and against IMO before conference record

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

Couldn't the Colts win the division if they finish the season with the same record as Tennessee, but Tennessee loses to Houston? Then wouldn't our division records be the same?

 

I think Tennessee could certainly lose to both @ Houston and @ Green Bay. 

 

Use the playoff machine: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

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chickenMan Ring of Honor

chickenMan

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I’ve been thinking about this, so I’ll break it down:

 

Lets say hypothetically Colts and Titans each lose one more game this year, each ending the year at 11-5. For Titans, we’ll call it Houston. For Colts, Pittsburgh.

 

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head. Titans are 1-1, Colts are 1-1. Next.

 

Second tiebreaker is division record. Colts are 4-2, Titans are 4-2. Next.

 

Third tiebreaker is common games. (I won’t include division games in this analysis because they’re already tied.) The Colts and Titans share eight common games (not including division games, as I mentioned). The Titans would be 5-3, with wins over Det, Chi, Min, GB, and Balt and losses from Cin, Pitt, and Cle. The Colts would also be 5-3, with wins over Chi, Det, Min, GB, and Cin, and losses to Balt, Pitt, and Cle. Next.

 

Fourth tiebreaker is conference record. (Once again I will be omitting division games because they’re tied.) Titans will be 3-3, with wins over Den, Buff, and Balt, and losses to Cin, Pitt, and Cle. Colts would be 3-3, with wins over Cin, LV, and NYJ, and losses to Cle, Pitt, and Balt. Next

 

FIFTH tiebreaker is strength of victory. This is impossible to know without the final season records of each NFL team, so for now we’re stuck.

 

Basically, let’s hope the Titans lose out and the Colts win out and leave it at that.

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Use the playoff machine: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Or just do that...lol why do I even try...

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coltsfeva Team Captain

coltsfeva

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Posted

   There’s an article on nfl.com that defines where the AFC teams are, now that the Ravens beat the Browns. 
     One comment I read was that both the Colts or Titans are too “limited” to win it all.

     I disagree on both counts: both teams have strong running games, solid offensive lines, better than average special teams. Both teams have played well defensively, at times. 
     I know the general consensus is that no team can beat KC, but both the Colts and Titans are built to do that.

 

  Here’s the article 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/debrief-afc-playoff-picture-taking-shape-down-the-stretch

      
 

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chickenMan Ring of Honor

chickenMan

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1 minute ago, coltsfeva said:

   There’s an article on nfl.com that defines where the AFC teams are, now that the Ravens beat the Browns. 
     One comment I read was that both the Colts or Titans are too “limited” to win it all.

     I disagree on both counts: both teams have strong running games, solid offensive lines, better than average special teams. Both teams have played well defensively, at times. 
     I know the general consensus is that no team can beat KC, but both the Colts and Titans are built to do that.

 

  Here’s the article 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/debrief-afc-playoff-picture-taking-shape-down-the-stretch

      
 

Anyone can beat anyone, on any given Sunday (or Thursday, or Monday, or Saturday, or Tuesday, or Wednesday...)

 

Except for the Jets, those guys can’t beat anybody

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csmopar Ring of Honor

csmopar

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2 minutes ago, chickenMan said:

Anyone can beat anyone, on any given Sunday (or Thursday, or Monday, or Saturday, or Tuesday, or Wednesday...)

 

Except for the Jets, those guys can’t beat anybody

You better hope they lose out, otherwise we get Trevor Lawrence in our division

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Myles Ring of Honor

Myles

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I'm rooting strongly against the Dolphins the rest of the way.  The Ravens have a very easy schedule remaining (Jag, Giants, Bengals.  They'll probably end up at 11-5 and take one spot leaving the Colts and Dolphins fighting for the remaining spot.  

 

Of course the Colts control their own destiny so as long as they keep winning.

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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19 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I’ve used that for years. Always interesting to do the whole “what ifs” for the end of the season. 
 

There’s some crazy scenarios that could happen this year with that newly created 7th seed. 

 

Yeah especially at this time of year. 

 

I think it's a stretch to say that we win out, but if we do, and the Titans lose one -- Packers? -- we win the division. I'll take it.

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danlhart87 Ring of Honor

danlhart87

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54 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Use the playoff machine: http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I have question about that

Yesterday I was messing around with this 

 

I had Colts finishing same as Raiders at 10 - 6 just to play with all the scenarios 

 

Raiders were listed as 7 and Colts 8

Wouldn't Colts be 7th since won head to head?

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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5 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I have question about that

Yesterday I was messing around with this 

 

I had Colts finishing same as Raiders at 10 - 6 just to play with all the scenarios 

 

Raiders were listed as 7 and Colts 8

Wouldn't Colts be 7th since won head to head?

 

Yeah, you should try it again. If there was a three way tie, the tie breakers are different.

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Stephen Ring of Honor

Stephen

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15 minutes ago, Myles said:

I'm rooting strongly against the Dolphins the rest of the way.  The Ravens have a very easy schedule remaining (Jag, Giants, Bengals.  They'll probably end up at 11-5 and take one spot leaving the Colts and Dolphins fighting for the remaining spot.  

 

Of course the Colts control their own destiny so as long as they keep winning.

Dolphins defense  is good possibly better  than ravens. My problem is  this. Say we make the playoffs  and the dolphins  don't.  Chiefs get the bye so we'd play the titans, bills, ravens, or steelers or browns.

All have qbs who can  run with the football  or atleast big ben used to. Alot of people  want the bills, but they'd be a tough matchup. They have an elite wr core. Titans have Derrick henry  and two good receivers,  browns, beat us earlier,  ravens beat us earlier, Steelers  might actually  be the weakest  matchup. 

The problem  with playing  the Steelers  is it means a date with the chiefs the next week. ANDY Reid is a beast coming off the bye so we don't  want to be the first team to face them. Ideally the ravens beat the Steelers  and then face chiefs and pull upset and face ravens in afc championship 

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danlhart87

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1 minute ago, Stephen said:

Dolphins defense  is good possibly better  than ravens. My problem is  this. Say we make the playoffs  and the dolphins  don't.  Chiefs get the bye so we'd play the titans, bills, ravens, or steelers or browns.

All have qbs who can  run with the football  or atleast big ben used to. Alot of people  want the bills, but they'd be a tough matchup. They have an elite wr core. Titans have Derrick henry  and two good receivers,  browns, beat us earlier,  ravens beat us earlier, Steelers  might actually  be the weakest  matchup. 

The problem  with playing  the Steelers  is it means a date with the chiefs the next week. ANDY Reid is a beast coming off the bye so we don't  want to be the first team to face them. Ideally the ravens beat the Steelers  and then face chiefs and pull upset and face ravens in afc championship 

 

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chickenMan Ring of Honor

chickenMan

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38 minutes ago, csmopar said:

You better hope they lose out, otherwise we get Trevor Lawrence in our division

We might get him anyway. Word around town is that he doesn’t fancy the idea of playing for the Jets. Either way, if we want to be SB contenders then we’ll have to beat guys with the skill sets of Lawrence, so I’m not terribly worried about it.

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coming on strong Ring of Honor

coming on strong

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the steelers look very bad recently they have zero run game , and ben cant throw deep .   the steelers defense is missing so many starters they are hollow right now .  Plus their wrs are dropping balls like crazy , the ebron effect has happened .   colts can beat them and go 3-0 and win the division if the packers beat the titans .

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danlhart87

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5 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

the steelers look very bad recently they have zero run game , and ben cant throw deep .   the steelers defense is missing so many starters they are hollow right now .  Plus their wrs are dropping balls like crazy , the ebron effect has happened .   colts can beat them and go 3-0 and win the division if the packers beat the titans .

It could happen

Honestly right now

 

I just hope Colts get in

I could care less who they play 

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coming on strong Ring of Honor

coming on strong

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1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

It could happen

Honestly right now

 

I just hope Colts get in

I could care less who they play 

match ups are key to who wins the super bowl though . so many years teams got big breaks with match ups.   If the colts can play the titans the first game then the ravens , it would be a layup to the afc championship game.

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danlhart87

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4 minutes ago, coming on strong said:

match ups are key to who wins the super bowl though . so many years teams got big breaks with match ups.   If the colts can play the titans the first game then the ravens , it would be a layup to the afc championship game.

I wouldn't necessarily call those layups considering Colts lost to both

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RollerColt Ring of Honor

RollerColt

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2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah especially at this time of year. 

 

I think it's a stretch to say that we win out, but if we do, and the Titans lose one -- Packers? -- we win the division. I'll take it.

I don’t even remember how I did it, but I somehow got a scenario where the Broncos... The Broncos, make the playoffs!

 

The interesting thing is that they only get in if we get in. 

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RollerColt Ring of Honor

RollerColt

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3 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

John Elway reading this 

 

alison brie omg GIF

Yep, it’s crazy but still possible. Basically, the Colts, Browns and Titans would need to win two out three, and make the playoffs. All of the other bubble teams would have to lose out and finish 8-8. In that scenario, if the Broncos also finish 8-8, they’d have tie breakers over everyone including the Ravens. 
 

Though the Ravens losing out seems highly unlikely. 

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Myles Ring of Honor

Myles

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3 hours ago, chickenMan said:

We might get him anyway. Word around town is that he doesn’t fancy the idea of playing for the Jets. Either way, if we want to be SB contenders then we’ll have to beat guys with the skill sets of Lawrence, so I’m not terribly worried about it.

I bet the Texans Jags and Titans would have lost a game on purpose to ensure Manning didn't come to the Colts.    

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Daniel John Walk On

Daniel John

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The Colts would lose every tiebreaker, except for a two-way tiebreaker with Las Vegas. As for what happens if the Colts and Titans both go 11-5, with the Titans losing to Houston and the Colts losing to Pittsburgh, it would come down to the fifth tiebreaker (strength of victory), as chickenMan pointed out. The Titans would win that tiebreaker, because their victories over the Bills, Ravens, Broncos, and at Jacksonville would be much stronger than our victories over the Jets, Bengals, Raiders, and at Houston.

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funktacious2 Active Roster

funktacious2

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My updated predictions after the thread last week. 

 

Ravens win out and are in

Browns drop one more but are in

Titans drop one more but win division

Dolphins lose to the Bills and miss playoffs in a Heartbreakers

Colts lose to Steelers forcing a must win against Jags, which they do.

 

 

Long story short. The Colts are far from safe. We could be gifted some luck and a team could have blunder like the Titans could fall to the Packer AND Houston or the Dolphins could reasonably lose to everyone on their schedule. The scary thing for the Colts is tie breakers. We only have one over the Raiders now. Browns, Ravens, and Dolohins all beat us in a tie. So losing more than one game would be very scary. Let's just win out instead. Haha

 

 

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