Turning the Colts into a SB Contender: What history tells us (2000-2018)

[WoolMagnet]

9 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

30th? 28th?

 

 

Sure.

have u ever looked at diff between 10th and , say 20th?  Its usually like 20 freakin yards.

yes, its quite possible that they moved down from the terns because of teams passing to catch up.  We had it hete in the Manning days.

[ojsglove]

11 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

A lot of people have been saying (and creating threads) about keeping JB an building around him, some wanting new RBs, and other hot takes. Pretty much the opposite of what the data tells us. One interesting thing/takeaway is that QBR>Passing O by a pretty good margin. Also that passing O and Run D are more common than Run O and Passing D.

Totally agree, I have no idea why anyone thinks we need another RB.  The QB situation is a hornets nest, that my opinion on is well known

[WoolMagnet]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

A lot of people have been saying (and creating threads) about keeping JB an building around him, some wanting new RBs, and other hot takes. Pretty much the opposite of what the data tells us. One interesting thing/takeaway is that QBR>Passing O by a pretty good margin. Also that passing O and Run D are more common than Run O and Passing D.

I think those saying that, the rational ones anyway, are saying that JB could and really should be better with WRs on field, not IR.  Serviceable would be the word i would use.  Best scenario?  No, but if the draft and FA dont align with what some think it should, it still provides stability until a realistic option is available.

 

  

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Rated THIS YEAR is a pretty big line.  

Tannehill - Was stuck with a brutally horrible Miami team for his entire career. Goes to a team with a good OL and good running game, and things look a lot different....

 

Fitzmagic - has been passed around to a number of teams over the years, but has been steady and improving (solid QBRs) the last 3 years with teams that have improved in OL. 

 

Carr - finally got a decent coach with a decent scheme and wasn't asked to do it all..

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

  I’m open to anything.  I just struggle when trying to think of a FA QB that really panned out the way planned.  The risk is ok if you have a favorable out in contract.  But no way i invest a big, long-term on a “2nd (or more) chance” guy who “never quite reached his potential.”

You're rolling the dice 99% of the time in the draft or FA... 

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

a little funny 2 of the QBs teams you mentioned didnt even get a wildcard with that impressive “T1rating.”  Especially since, in your original argument Was the most important factor to success.

Come on, I don't need to be Mr. Obvious here... QBR was the strongest factor by far, but that alone does not make you a super bowl contender. Let's not be disingenuous. 

 

Key takeaway here is we have a Rush O and Rush D that are T1 (better than 50% of SB contenders). We have a Pass D that is poor, but still as good as about 25% of SB contenders. Our QBR/Passing O however is off the cliff bad.

 

It obviously takes a mix of the 4 attributes plus coaching. We have 3 out of 5 going for us.

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

not really trying to argue with you as i do agree in basic terms.  My point is it isnt as black and white as the numbers seem to suggest.

  I love the numbers tho, i’m a numbers guy.  I too feel alot can be learned provided it is filtered correctly.

 

Filter them anyway you want. They are just numbers. Things are never perfectly black and white. Some things/elements are pretty obvious though.

 

 

[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Sure.

have u ever looked at diff between 10th and , say 20th?  Its usually like 20 freakin yards.

yes, its quite possible that they moved down from the terns because of teams passing to catch up.  We had it hete in the Manning days.

The comparison would really be ours this year 23rd (248 ypg) vs the lower edge of T1/10th (223), and also in the area of past SB contenders (ATL and NE) with 28/30 ranks (270ish). 

 

So we're not far from being T3 now, and 25 from 10th, and 22 from NE/ATL style bad...

 

Yes, 22-25 either way... Ever hear it's a game of inches? Not sure what your point is. If that were the case, wouldn't every team with a highly rated Passing O also have a horrible rated Passing D? The data is there if you care to put the effort in.

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

This is an interesting thread.  Great job @EastStreet.  

Thanks LCF.

[EastStreet]

18 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

I think those saying that, the rational ones anyway, are saying that JB could and really should be better with WRs on field, not IR.  Serviceable would be the word i would use.  Best scenario?  No, but if the draft and FA dont align with what some think it should, it still provides stability until a realistic option is available.

What the data says though, it's rare that serviceable QB gets you far. So is it really stability, or just a placeholder?

[ojsglove]

7 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

I think those saying that, the rational ones anyway, are saying that JB could and really should be better with WRs on field, not IR.  Serviceable would be the word i would use.  Best scenario?  No, but if the draft and FA dont align with what some think it should, it still provides stability until a realistic option is available.

 

  

 

I have to be honest, the final game pretty much sealed the deal for me as far as JB is concerned.  The comments by TY and JB's inability to improve his play this season was enough, but seeing Q walking off the field with a possible concussion trying to defend JB while he tries to figure out who to throw to, i'm thinking, "man, we got the best o'line in the league, and we are wasting them"?

[Manning->Luck]

Awesome analysis. I’m curious to what year Peyton was as good or worse to our current QB? Was it Colts or Broncos?

Awesome analysis. I’m curious to what year Peyton was as good or worse to our current QBR? Was it Colts or Broncos?

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, Manning->Luck said:

Awesome analysis. I’m curious to what year Peyton was as good or worse to our current QB? Was it Colts or Broncos?

Awesome analysis. I’m curious to what year Peyton was as good or worse to our current QBR? Was it Colts or Broncos?

Broncos 2015. His QBR was similar. Still averaged 225 a game. It was his last year, and he only started 9 games IIRC. PO was still 14th, and TD was #1.

[Four2itus]

Stats are a way to look at trends. They dont tell what will happen, but merely percentages of chance. Since Free agent QB acquisition seems to be a hot topic. I gathered some more "stats" to add to this discussion. 

 

The criteria for this post is as follows: All are QB's who are listed on Spotrac for FA QB signings in 2017,2018, and 2019. The ones I left out are players that had zero contribution, regardless of signing and players that were not signed to be the starter. I used those who were thrust in as a starter because of injury for most of the season. The purpose of this effort is to identify how well starting FA QB's produce in a new system. I listed them in order of yards per game (ypg). (Please note that yr...stands for years played as the starter over the 3 year window I chose...not the length of the contract)

 

Kirk Cousins        - 2 yr, 31 gm, 56 td, 16 int, 7901 yds, 254 ypg, 84m

Ryan Fitzpatrick - 3 yr, 29 gm, 44 td, 28 int, 6968 yds, 240 ypg, 14m (2 contracts)

Case Keenum       - 3 yr, 41 gm, 51 td, 27 int, 9144 yds, 223 ypg, 38m (2 contracts)

Jacoby Brissett     - 2 yr, 31 gm, 31 td, 13 int, 6040 yds, 195 ypg, 16m (2 contracts)

Jay Cutler              - 1 yr, 14 gm, 19 td, 14 int, 2666 yds, 190 ypg, 10m

Brock Osweiler    - 2 yr, 13 gm, 11 td, 09 int, 2335 yds, 180 ypg, 1.65m (2 contracts)

Josh McCown       - 3 yr, 20 gm, 19 td, 13 int, 3489 yds, 174 ypg, 16m (2 contracts)

Nick Foles             - 3 yr, 16 gm, 15 td, 08 int, 2686 yds, 168 ypg, 99m (2 contracts)

Ted Bridgewater - 2 yr, 14 gm, 10 td, 03 int, 1502 yds, 107 ypg, 13.25 (2 contracts)

 

2017

2018

2019

 

I apologize for any mistakes made. I am trying to show the likelihood of a FA working out from a value sense. 

 

 

 

[WoolMagnet]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

The comparison would really be ours this year 23rd (248 ypg) vs the lower edge of T1/10th (223), and also in the area of past SB contenders (ATL and NE) with 28/30 ranks (270ish). 

 

So we're not far from being T3 now, and 25 from 10th, and 22 from NE/ATL style bad...

 

Yes, 22-25 either way... Ever hear it's a game of inches? Not sure what your point is. If that were the case, wouldn't every team with a highly rated Passing O also have a horrible rated Passing D? The data is there if you care to put the effort in.

My point is exactly what you said.  We're not far off from where we wanna be in all areas.  Including QB.

  So...... without the WRs nursing  their bodies, and the other issues especially kicking we’re right there... close anyway.

  Now, going forward i expect the passing game to improve because of QB improvement (JB or someone), wr improvement (healthy roster and additions), run D (DT), and pass D ((Ballards not done snd the young guys are a year more experienced), better coaching and playcalling, and a kicker thats better than 50-50.

  I’ll take that.

  

[WoolMagnet]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

What the data says though, it's rare that serviceable QB gets you far. So is it really stability, or just a placeholder?

Well then click your heels together and scream “theres no place like home!”

 

What do you want from me dude? There's no magic spell.

Alot of smarter people than us run much more comprehensive analytical data and still cant predict.

  Who is this magical T1 guy?

tannenbaum? Nope, Tenn will keep him.  Fitz? Seriously? Thats no answer.  I could see Carr if we didnt have to mortgage much.  But the fact the Raiders have a team ready for a run and would trade him is a pretty big red flag.

  I’d prefer a guy in draft, but think the ones at 13 may be reach.  I think 3 or 4 are gone b4 the 13th.  Then what?  Get desperate with a FA?  Thats not the answer either.  Im kinda thinking i’d like a camp battle of JB, “new guy” from draft or FA, and Kelly.  Maybe an open tryout at a local bar too.

 

 I think we kinda think the same thing, i think we’re just kinda lookin at it from opposite ends.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

My point is exactly what you said.  We're not far off from where we wanna be in all areas.  Including QB.

  So...... without the WRs nursing  their bodies, and the other issues especially kicking we’re right there... close anyway.

  Now, going forward i expect the passing game to improve because of QB improvement (JB or someone), wr improvement (healthy roster and additions), run D (DT), and pass D ((Ballards not done snd the young guys are a year more experienced), better coaching and playcalling, and a kicker thats better than 50-50.

  I’ll take that.

  

uh, no. 

If we're talking yards (which I clearly said QBR was the most important), JB is at 193 YPG, the bottom of the top 10 is 243, that's 50 yards... long ways... even 20 yards isn't peanuts when we're talking averages. Add in the fact we played a lot of very bad passing Ds. 

 

Anyway, ypg or QBR, Brissett is not the answer even with healthy WRs. His decision making is slow, his vision bad, and his recognition is poor. One can not ignore that almost every pass catcher we had regressed, the wide open pass catchers missed consistently, his inability to go deep or seam, and many other clear deficiencies. He's never been that guy in college or the pros, and I don't expect a miracle transition with a few adds at WR... 

 

 

[WoolMagnet]

2 hours ago, ojsglove said:

 

I have to be honest, the final game pretty much sealed the deal for me as far as JB is concerned.  The comments by TY and JB's inability to improve his play this season was enough, but seeing Q walking off the field with a possible concussion trying to defend JB while he tries to figure out who to throw to, i'm thinking, "man, we got the best o'line in the league, and we are wasting them"?

I agree fully.  However, I think He still has value in the transition, probably.  Unkess has some “Better grade” FA (like a Carr).  He could still be valuable backup for a year.

But i agree, we need to see much better.  Watching Brady struggle with WRs not getting open gave me a lil different view of JB.  Not a ton, granted, but still similar. 

[WoolMagnet]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

uh, no. 

If we're talking yards (which I clearly said QBR was the most important), JB is at 193 YPG, the bottom of the top 10 is 243, that's 50 yards... long ways... even 20 yards isn't peanuts when we're talking averages. Add in the fact we played a lot of very bad passing Ds. 

 

Anyway, ypg or QBR, Brissett is not the answer even with healthy WRs. His decision making is slow, his vision bad, and his recognition is poor. One can not ignore that almost every pass catcher we had regressed, the wide open pass catchers missed consistently, his inability to go deep or seam, and many other clear deficiencies. He's never been that guy in college or the pros, and I don't expect a miracle transition with a few adds at WR... 

 

 

Ok, well i’ll be interested in who this Savior is .

i’m anxious for him to show up as well.

 

50 yards is ONE big play to hilton.  Hardly inconceivable.

[The Peytonator]

 

 

Big league thread @EastStreet. QB is obviously the biggest need on this team and I would prefer going the young and malleable route in the draft. I’m all for betting the farm and moving up for the guy but we’ll see how it plays out. Interior Dline is the next weakest spot but I see a number of guys approaching free agency that I would love to target and I’m sure a couple have to be available in March. These are the two most important positions on the team and fixing them is easier said than done, but it is something that they’ve got to get to work on this offseason or we’re going to squander the genius of Frank Reich on Jacoby Brissett. 

[waittilnextyear]

17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I've seen some stats tossed around about "building" a team that can compete for a Super Bowl. I think some of what has been tossed out is "convenient" cherry picking, so decided to finish a little drill down that I started a few months ago. Anyway, just the facts below. 

 

In short, I've looked at Super Bowl teams since 2000, and listed their unit and total ranks. I've also added QBR rank. Below is a summary of some key takeaways and conclusions. Below that, is an easy summary of total and unit tiers, and farther below is the raw data capsules of each team. I've used tiers rather than averages as I think the distribution if far more educational than a simple average (which will hide/blend outliers). I also don't discriminate in W or L in the SB, only that they made it to the SB.

 

Warning: The factual information contained below might be too much for some (especially fanboys). If you are afraid of facts, or think stats are unimportant, please ignore this thread and spare the rest from anecdotal throw up.

 

Key Takeaways in general on SB contender data:
1. Having a QB with a Tier 1 QBR is by far the biggest commonality of Super Bowl contenders. 30 of 38 teams had Tier 1 (top 10) QBRs. QBR is far more important than passing YPG, rushing YPG, or any D total or unit stat.
2. Balance in O and D is best, but O is significantly more important. 33 of 38 teams where above the median in Total O, while only 24 of 38 were above the median in Total D.
3. Passing O vs Rushing O was very similar, but Passing O had a slight edge in importance.
4. Passing D vs Rushing D was similar compared to the median, but T1 Rushing Ds were far more prevelant.

 

Colts Current Rank and Contender Comparison:
1. Zero teams have played in a SB with our current Total O and Pass O rank
2. Only 2 of 38 (5%) teams have played in a SB with our current QBR rank or lower. Those QBs were Peyton and Big Ben.
3. Our Rush O is as good or equal to 63% of SB contenders 
4. Our Total D is as good or equal to 39% of SB contenders and T2
5. Our Pass D is as good or equal to 24% of SB contenders and T4
6. Our Run D is as good as or equal to 53% of SB contenders and T1

 

Conclusion / Recommendation
1. QB is by far the most important thing to address (draft or FA) based on our current rank in QBR and Passing 0. 
2. Passing D is the second biggest need although almost a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse Tier rank. DT please.
3. Total D while slightly below the SB contender median, was still T2 (current year)
3, Our Rush O and Rush D are both Tier 1, and well within SB contender performance (50+%).

 

Tier Definition
Tier 1:  1-10 Good/Great
Tier 2:  11-16 AMA (Above Median / Average) 
Tier 3:  17-22 BMA (Below Median / Average)
Tier 4:  23-32 Bad/Horrible

 

Distribution of 38 SB team rankings from 2000-2018

Total O/Pass O/Rush O/Total D/Pass D/Rush D/  QBR
T1:  21 /   19    /    18    /    22    /    11    /    23     /    30
T2:  12 /    9     /     7     /     2     /    12    /    4       /     2
T3:   4  /    5     /     5     /     8     /     6     /    8       /     4
T4:   1  /    5     /     8     /     6     /     9     /    3       /     2

 

Colts Current Rank / Tier / # SB Contenders equal to or below / % of SB teams equal to or worse
Total O: 25th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Pass O: 30th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Rush O: 7th  / T1 /  24  / 63%
Total D: 16th  / T2 / 15  /  39%
Pass D: 23rd  / T4 /  9  /  24%
Rush D: 7th  / T1 /  20  /  53%
QBR: 20th  / T3 /  2  /  5%

 

Team specific data.

TO=Total Offense, PO=Pass Offense, RO=Rush Offense, TD=Total Defense, PD=Pass Defense, RD=Rush Offense

TO, PO, RO, TD, PD, and RD are all team/unit ranks 1-32. QBR is an individual rank (1-32) with the exception of two years when a team had 2 QBs play 6+ games each (in which case QBR is averaged). 

 

2018W (NE) TO 5 (PO 8/RO 5), TD 21 (PD 22/RD 11), QBR 9
2018L (LAR) TO 2 (PO 5/RO 3), TD 19 (PD 14/RD 23), QBR 10
2017W (PH) TO 7 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 4 (PD 17/RD 1), QBR 1
2017L (NE) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 10), TD 29 (PD 30/RD 20), QBR 3
2016W (NE ) TO 4 (PO 4/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 12/RD 4), QBR 2
2016L (ATL) TO 2 (PO 3/RO 5), TD 25 (PD 28/RD 17), QBR 1
2015W (DEN) TO 16 (PO 14/RO 17), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 25
2015L (CAR) TO 11 (PO 24/RO 2), TD 6 (PD 11/RD 4), QBR 9
2014W (NE) TO 11 (PO 9/RO 18), TD 13 (PD 17/RD 9), QBR 3
2014L (SEA) TO 9 (PO 27/RO 1), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 6
2013W (SEA) TO 17 (PO 1/RO 4), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 8), QBR 7
2013L (DEN) TO 1 (PO 26/RO 15), TD 19 (PD 27/RD 7), QBR 2
2012W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 15/RO 11), TD 17 (PD 17/RD 20), QBR 18
2012L (SF) TO 11 (PO 23/RO 4), TD 3 (PD 4/RD 4), QBR 8*
2011W (NYG) TO 8 (PO 5/RO 32), TD 27 (PD 29/RD 19), QBR 9
2011L (NE) TO 2 (PO 2/RO 20), TD 31 (PD 31/RD 17), QBR 3
2010W (GB) TO 9 (PO 5/RO 24), TD 5 (PD 5/RD 18), QBR 6
2010L (PIT) TO 14 (PO 14/RO 11), TD 2 (PD 12/RD 1), QBR 7
2009W (NO) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 6), TD 25  (PD 26/RD 21), QBR 1
2009L (IN) TO 9 (PO 4/RO 32), TD 18 (PD 14/RD 24), QBR 2
2008W (PIT) TO 22 (PO 17/RO 23), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 2), QBR 26
2008L (AZ) TO 4 (PO 2/RO 32), TD 19 (PD 22/RD 16), QBR 3
2007W (NYG) TO 16 (PO 21/RO 4), TD 7 (PD 11/RD 8), QBR 18
2007L (NE) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 13), TD 4 (PD 6/RD 10), QBR 1
2006W (IN) TO 3 (PO 2/RO 18), TD 21 (PD 2/RD 32), QBR 1
2006L (CHI) TO 15 (PO 14/RO 15), TD 5 (PD 11/RD 6), QBR 19
2005W (PIT) TO 15 (PO 24/RO 5), TD 4 (PD 16/RD 3), QB-R 3
2005L (SEA) TO 2 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 17 (PD 25/RD 5), QB-R 4
2004W (NE) TO 7 (PO 11/RO 7), TD 9 (PD 17/RD 6), QB-R 9
2004L (PH) TO 9 (PO 7/RO 24), TD 10 (PD 12/RD 16), QB-R 4
2003W (NE) TO 17 (PO 9/RO 27), TD 7 (PD 15/RD 4), QB-R 10
2003L (CAR) TO 16 (PO 18/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 9/RD 11), QB-R 14
2002W (TB) TO 24 (PO 15/RO 27), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 6), QB-R 3
2002L (OAK) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 18), TD 11 (PD 23/RD 3), QB-R 2
2001W (NE) TO 19 (PO 22/RO 13), TD 24 (PD 24/RD 19), QB-R 6
2001L (LAR) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 5), TD 3 (PD 11/RD 3), QB-R 1
2000W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 22/RO 5), TD 2 (PD 8/RD 1), QB-R 20
2000L (NYG) TO 13 (PO 13/RO 11), TD 5 (PD 16/RD 2), QB-R 12
 

Note, "QB Rating" was used in place of QBR for years prior to 2006 (ESPN created QBR in advance of the 2006 season)

 

Note2, I did those over a few sittings, and eyeballs going cross towards the end.... so, let me know if you find any errors or have any questions.

 

  So we really need a good passing QB.
  And i am hoping for a Fletcher Cox Jr., a Stephone Gilmore like CB, and a Michael Thomas like WR.
  CB, we are counting on you and your staff to excel.

[MPStack]

1 hour ago, waittilnextyear said:

 

  So we really need a good passing QB.
  And i am hoping for a Fletcher Cox Jr., a Stephone Gilmore like CB, and a Michael Thomas like WR.
  CB, we are counting on you and your staff to excel.

According to some, it’s easier to get all those mentioned and more, onto one roster, instead of finding one above average QB. 

[Myles]

11 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

 

 

50 yards is ONE big play to hilton.  Hardly inconceivable.

1 big play in every game.     Which is inconceivable for Brissett who has not improved since college.   He's not a rookie.   He's 27 years old and has started 32 games in the NFL.   Got to learn from Brady and Luck.   He is what he is.   One of the worst QB's in the NFL. 

[WoolMagnet]

32 minutes ago, Myles said:

1 big play in every game.     Which is inconceivable for Brissett who has not improved since college.   He's not a rookie.   He's 27 years old and has started 32 games in the NFL.   Got to learn from Brady and Luck.   He is what he is.   One of the worst QB's in the NFL. 

1 “biggish” Play downfield, or 1 penalty drawn (Cain’s specialty), or 2 - 25 yard plays (screen to Hines?), is VERY conceivable.  Or just having Hilton, Funchess, Campbell would certainly favored another 50/game.  Or how about less drops?

 

Or how about throwing the ball more than 20 or 25 times?  Maybe the numbers guy can explain that only 4 players in HISTORY averaged over 7 yards/pass attempt.  25 x 7 = 175 yards last time i checked.  Look at Lamar Jacksons pass yards/game as an example. 
Half the games this year (not including Pitt and Miami) JB threw less than 30 times.  30 x 7 = 210 yards Passing, btw,
 

  We need more passing yards from the QB position, yes.  But JB wasnt the only reason we were sub par.  Attempt given was the BIGGEST reason.  Then completion % due to no separation, drops and qb inaccuracy.  The heavy running attack also affected it.

  Look when you eat time, run the ball, but your D doesnt stop them, and you miss kicks , you will lose.

  JB is not as bad as we think or have seen from him.  But nobody seems to acknowledge he wasnt given much help.  Some act like he should have played like a “top” QB.  Why we thought this, i have no idea.

 

  Yes, we need to upgrade, but in tired of hearing how They have all the answers due to some numbers on a page without analyzing each of those independently.

  Whatever, not really trying to argue.  I get defensive when people throw “numbers” and havent fully thought them out from all angles.

 

Personally, i blame coaching, playcalling, gameplanning, wr talent on the field as much for our “200 yards” passing as i do JB.  Yards per game passing isnt the answer.  Look at buffalo and Baltimore as examples.

  

 

[lollygagger8]

19 hours ago, Nickster said:

Good stuff.  
 

Couple issues.  DTs that can rush the QB are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.  If Castanzo is serious and retires, LTs are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.

 

So it is difficult to get either a Tier 1 QB and a DT that can rush the passer in any draft let alone both in the same draft.  If you at an LT to that mix it’s pert  near impossible.

 

We could be screwed for years to come if AC doesn’t resign and we bust on a QB draft which is about a 50/50 spin in the first round let alone later.

 

Best case IMO is to sign the vet QB you think is best chance and draft a QB if you like one.  I still think this team is competitive with a decent QB now.

 

Andrew has just killed the org by quitting.  Not that it isn’t his choice but that’s the reality.

 

If AC retires LT is perhaps priority 1.  Open the checkbook and make him an offer he can’t refuse.  Cut Brisett And allocate that money there.

my amateur choice of vet signing is Rivers.

 

 

I was all about this post until the end (Rivers) lol 

[EastStreet]

14 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

Well then click your heels together and scream “theres no place like home!”

 

What do you want from me dude? There's no magic spell.

Alot of smarter people than us run much more comprehensive analytical data and still cant predict.

  Who is this magical T1 guy?

tannenbaum? Nope, Tenn will keep him.  Fitz? Seriously? Thats no answer.  I could see Carr if we didnt have to mortgage much.  But the fact the Raiders have a team ready for a run and would trade him is a pretty big red flag.

  I’d prefer a guy in draft, but think the ones at 13 may be reach.  I think 3 or 4 are gone b4 the 13th.  Then what?  Get desperate with a FA?  Thats not the answer either.  Im kinda thinking i’d like a camp battle of JB, “new guy” from draft or FA, and Kelly.  Maybe an open tryout at a local bar too.

 

 I think we kinda think the same thing, i think we’re just kinda lookin at it from opposite ends.

I'm just pointing out that finding a QB that can be good in QBR isn't an insurmountable task. Good QBs go to bad teams with bad OLs and poor RB rooms, and struggle, but do better with teams like the Colts who are built well and have good coaching. Rookies who go to bad teams get ruined but can thrive with a well beat team like the Colts with a good scheme/coach. 

[EastStreet]

14 hours ago, WoolMagnet said:

Ok, well i’ll be interested in who this Savior is .

i’m anxious for him to show up as well.

 

50 yards is ONE big play to hilton.  Hardly inconceivable.

that would be 50 yards in one play in each of our 16 games... it's a play JB couldn't consistently make. 

 

i'm interested in who Ballard thinks that player is too. but again, i'm less concerned with yards, and more concerned with QBR.

[EastStreet]

On 1/7/2020 at 1:41 AM, The Peytonator said:

 

Big league thread @EastStreet. QB is obviously the biggest need on this team and I would prefer going the young and malleable route in the draft. I’m all for betting the farm and moving up for the guy but we’ll see how it plays out. Interior Dline is the next weakest spot but I see a number of guys approaching free agency that I would love to target and I’m sure a couple have to be available in March. These are the two most important positions on the team and fixing them is easier said than done, but it is something that they’ve got to get to work on this offseason or we’re going to squander the genius of Frank Reich on Jacoby Brissett. 

Thanks, and agree 1000% on the bolded.

[EastStreet]

21 hours ago, Edo said:

 

 

Thank you very much for this work. This data analysis is very interesting and informative. 

Although may be Chris Ballard sees a future Elite QB's in JB despite the strong reserves the fans may have. 

May I show your analysis to a French Football website made by fans? 

You are welcome. Feel free to share as much as you want across the pond. 

 

[EastStreet]

5 hours ago, waittilnextyear said:

 

  So we really need a good passing QB.
  And i am hoping for a Fletcher Cox Jr., a Stephone Gilmore like CB, and a Michael Thomas like WR.
  CB, we are counting on you and your staff to excel.

We need someone who is more efficient and consistent (at QB) IMO, not someone how has big yards all the time. 

 

My wishlist (Draft or FA)

1a. QB

1b. DT 

2. CB

3. WR

 

OT - I doubt AC retires, but if he does, OT would be 1b/c

I'd like to get a legit DT via FA

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, MPStack said:

According to some, it’s easier to get all those mentioned and more, onto one roster, instead of finding one above average QB. 

yup, lol. sad 

[Dogg63]

5 hours ago, Myles said:

1 big play in every game.     Which is inconceivable for Brissett who has not improved since college.   He's not a rookie.   He's 27 years old and has started 32 games in the NFL.   Got to learn from Brady and Luck.   He is what he is.   One of the worst QB's in the NFL. 

Good heavens, do you have this verbiage assigned to an auto-repost key on your keyboard? Surely you don't manually retype it multiple times in every thread on the forum...or maybe you do.

[superrep1967]

On 1/6/2020 at 5:48 PM, chad72 said:

QBR plays into keeping drives alive, 3rd down conversions and converting drives in the red zone into TDs, IMO.  Defensively, being top 10 in D categories like points allowed or turnover ratio can make up for lower rankings in yardage allowed, IMO. Rushing offense may be key to control tempo but the QB still has to convert those 3rd downs via passing to keep drives alive for points. Teams like the Patriots use the short pass like a run to get positive yardage consistently.

 

So, even if it was a 5 FG game vs Ravens in the divisional playoff round, Peyton converted several key 3rd downs in the passing game to keep drives alive against an elite defensive unit.

 

This is a very good article you guys need to read:

 

https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/

 

 

What Peyton Manning was so good at was being very good on third down and consistency throughout the game something we don't have right now. Our QB now basically sucks but would be a good backup at best. For us to be super Bowl contenders we need a consistent QB and one that can brings come back in games when needed and other pieces to the puzzle as well but QB being the most important.  

[WoolMagnet]

4 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm just pointing out that finding a QB that can be good in QBR isn't an insurmountable task. Good QBs go to bad teams with bad OLs and poor RB rooms, and struggle, but do better with teams like the Colts who are built well and have good coaching. Rookies who go to bad teams get ruined but can thrive with a well beat team like the Colts with a good scheme/coach. 

Im all for that.

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, superrep1967 said:

What Peyton Manning was so good at was being very good on third down and consistency throughout the game something we don't have right now. Our QB now basically sucks but would be a good backup at best. For us to be super Bowl contenders we need a consistent QB and one that can brings come back in games when needed and other pieces to the puzzle as well but QB being the most important.  

Peyton did a lot of things really well. If he could have only played on D too lol...

 

IMO, the best thing Peyton did was pre snap read, and adjust, or pre-snap read and exploit. He obviously had all the traits to toss the ball, but it was his intelligence and processing that made him special.

15 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Im all for that.

Me too. The trick is finding that guy lol.... Hoping Ballard is up to the task.

[Nickster]

5 hours ago, lollygagger8 said:

 

I was all about this post until the end (Rivers) lol 

Hey I wanted Leaf.

[EastStreet]

On 1/6/2020 at 5:53 PM, SteelCityColt said:

I’d interested to see how ANY/A for a QB plays compared to QBR. 
 

Good work sir.

Here ya go sir

 

Distribution of 38 SB team rankings from 2000-2018

Total O/Pass O/Rush O/Total D/Pass D/Rush D/  QBR / ANY-A
T1:  21 /   19    /    18    /    22    /    11    /    23     /    30    /    28
T2:  12 /    9     /     7     /     2     /    12    /    4       /     2      /     5
T3:   4  /    5     /     5     /     8     /     6     /    8       /     4       /    4
T4:   1  /    5     /     8     /     6     /     9     /    3       /     2       /    1 (DEN with PM)

 

2018W (NE) TO 5 (PO 8/RO 5), TD 21 (PD 22/RD 11), QBR 9, ANY/A 6
2018L (LAR) TO 2 (PO 5/RO 3), TD 19 (PD 14/RD 23), QBR 10, ANY/A 4
2017W (PH) TO 7 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 4 (PD 17/RD 1), QBR 1, ANY/A 10
2017L (NE) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 10), TD 29 (PD 30/RD 20), QBR 3, ANY/A 2
2016W (NE ) TO 4 (PO 4/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 12/RD 4), QBR 2, ANY/A 2
2016L (ATL) TO 2 (PO 3/RO 5), TD 25 (PD 28/RD 17), QBR 1, ANY/A 1
2015W (DEN) TO 16 (PO 14/RO 17), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 25, ANY/A 30
2015L (CAR) TO 11 (PO 24/RO 2), TD 6 (PD 11/RD 4), QBR 9, ANY/A 7
2014W (NE) TO 11 (PO 9/RO 18), TD 13 (PD 17/RD 9), QBR 3, ANY/A 6
2014L (SEA) TO 9 (PO 27/RO 1), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 6, ANY/A 11
2013W (SEA) TO 17 (PO 1/RO 4), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 8), QBR 7, ANY/A 5
2013L (DEN) TO 1 (PO 26/RO 15), TD 19 (PD 27/RD 7), QBR 2, ANY/A 1
2012W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 15/RO 11), TD 17 (PD 17/RD 20), QBR 18, ANY/A 14
2012L (SF) TO 11 (PO 23/RO 4), TD 3 (PD 4/RD 4), QBR 8*, ANY/A 6
2011W (NYG) TO 8 (PO 5/RO 32), TD 27 (PD 29/RD 19), QBR 9, ANY/A 4
2011L (NE) TO 2 (PO 2/RO 20), TD 31 (PD 31/RD 17), QBR 3, ANY/A 2
2010W (GB) TO 9 (PO 5/RO 24), TD 5 (PD 5/RD 18), QBR 6, ANY/A 3
2010L (PIT) TO 14 (PO 14/RO 11), TD 2 (PD 12/RD 1), QBR 7, ANY/A 4
2009W (NO) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 6), TD 25  (PD 26/RD 21), QBR 1, ANY/A 2
2009L (IN) TO 9 (PO 4/RO 32), TD 18 (PD 14/RD 24), QBR 2, ANY/A 8
2008W (PIT) TO 22 (PO 17/RO 23), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 2), QBR 26, ANY/A 19
2008L (AZ) TO 4 (PO 2/RO 32), TD 19 (PD 22/RD 16), QBR 3, ANY/A 4
2007W (NYG) TO 16 (PO 21/RO 4), TD 7 (PD 11/RD 8), QBR 18, ANY/A 22
2007L (NE) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 13), TD 4 (PD 6/RD 10), QBR 1, ANY/A 1
2006W (IN) TO 3 (PO 2/RO 18), TD 21 (PD 2/RD 32), QBR 1, ANY/A 1
2006L (CHI) TO 15 (PO 14/RO 15), TD 5 (PD 11/RD 6), QBR 19, ANY/A 18
2005W (PIT) TO 15 (PO 24/RO 5), TD 4 (PD 16/RD 3), QB-R 3, ANY/A 7
2005L (SEA) TO 2 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 17 (PD 25/RD 5), QB-R 4, ANY/A 2
2004W (NE) TO 7 (PO 11/RO 7), TD 9 (PD 17/RD 6), QB-R 9, ANY/A 7
2004L (PH) TO 9 (PO 7/RO 24), TD 10 (PD 12/RD 16), QB-R 4, ANY/A 5
2003W (NE) TO 17 (PO 9/RO 27), TD 7 (PD 15/RD 4), QB-R 10, ANY/A 10
2003L (CAR) TO 16 (PO 18/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 9/RD 11), QB-R 14, ANY/A 12
2002W (TB) TO 24 (PO 15/RO 27), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 6), QB-R 3, ANY/A 14
2002L (OAK) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 18), TD 11 (PD 23/RD 3), QB-R 2, ANY/A 2
2001W (NE) TO 19 (PO 22/RO 13), TD 24 (PD 24/RD 19), QB-R 6, ANY/A 11
2001L (LAR) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 5), TD 3 (PD 11/RD 3), QB-R 1, ANY/A 1
2000W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 22/RO 5), TD 2 (PD 8/RD 1), QB-R 20, ANY/A 23
2000L (NYG) TO 13 (PO 13/RO 11), TD 5 (PD 16/RD 2), QB-R 12, ANY/A 10
 

[EastStreet]

On 1/6/2020 at 6:22 PM, richard pallo said:

Great job EastStreet.  Just for fun do you have any idea what Tier Carr, Dalton, Newton or Darnold fall under?  I'm not really interested in Manning, Rivers or Brady since they are past their prime so to speak.  

Here ya go. Gave you the last 3 years. Added Winston and included the guys you weren't interested in since they are FA or may be available (and other might be interested). Left out Darnold as he's locked up in contract. @SteelCityColt included ANY/A in case you're interested.

 

Player / YPG / QBR / ANY-A
Carr17   2    /    3    /    2  
Carr18   2    /    4    /    3 
Carr19   2    /    1    /    1    Coaching and scheme change
Dalt17   3    /    4    /    3
Dalt18   4    /    2    /    4
Dalt19   1    /    4    /    4    Partial year
New17   3    /    3    /    4
New18   3    /    3    /    3
New19   1    /    4    /    4     Partial year
Man17   2    /    4    /    4
Man18   2    /    4    /    3
Man19   2    /    4    /    3    Partial year
Rive17   1    /    2    /    1
Rive18   2    /    1    /    1
Rive19   1    /    3    /    2
Brad17   1    /   1    /     1
Brad18   2    /   1    /     1
Brad19   1    /   3    /     3
Win17   1    /    3    /    2
Win18   2    /    1    /    3
Win19   1    /    2    /    3

[Myles]

EastStreet, I enjoyed your post.  Sure it's not the be-all end-all of the situation, but it does point out the common denominators of teams that make the Super Bowl.  

[Rally5]

On 1/6/2020 at 5:10 PM, EastStreet said:

I've seen some stats tossed around about "building" a team that can compete for a Super Bowl. I think some of what has been tossed out is "convenient" cherry picking, so decided to finish a little drill down that I started a few months ago. Anyway, just the facts below. 

 

In short, I've looked at Super Bowl teams since 2000, and listed their unit and total ranks. I've also added QBR rank. Below is a summary of some key takeaways and conclusions. Below that, is an easy summary of total and unit tiers, and farther below is the raw data capsules of each team. I've used tiers rather than averages as I think the distribution if far more educational than a simple average (which will hide/blend outliers). I also don't discriminate in W or L in the SB, only that they made it to the SB.

 

Warning: The factual information contained below might be too much for some. If you think stats are unimportant, please ignore this thread.

 

Key Takeaways in general on SB contender data:
1. Having a QB with a Tier 1 QBR is by far the biggest commonality of Super Bowl contenders. 30 of 38 teams had Tier 1 (top 10) QBRs. QBR is far more important than passing YPG, rushing YPG, or any D total or unit stat.
2. Balance in O and D is best, but O is significantly more important. 33 of 38 teams where above the median in Total O, while only 24 of 38 were above the median in Total D.
3. Passing O vs Rushing O was very similar, but Passing O had a slight edge in importance.
4. Passing D vs Rushing D was similar compared to the median, but T1 Rushing Ds were far more prevelant.

 

Colts Current Rank and Contender Comparison:
1. Zero teams have played in a SB with our current Total O and Pass O rank
2. Only 2 of 38 (5%) teams have played in a SB with our current QBR rank or lower. Those QBs were Peyton and Big Ben.
3. Our Rush O is as good or equal to 63% of SB contenders 
4. Our Total D is as good or equal to 39% of SB contenders and T2
5. Our Pass D is as good or equal to 24% of SB contenders and T4
6. Our Run D is as good as or equal to 53% of SB contenders and T1

 

Conclusion / Recommendation
1. QB is by far the most important thing to address (draft or FA) based on our current rank in QBR and Passing 0. 
2. Passing D is the second biggest need although almost a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse Tier rank. DT please.
3. Total D while slightly below the SB contender median, was still T2 (current year)
3, Our Rush O and Rush D are both Tier 1, and well within SB contender performance (50+%).

 

Tier Definition
Tier 1:  1-10 Good/Great
Tier 2:  11-16 AMA (Above Median / Average) 
Tier 3:  17-22 BMA (Below Median / Average)
Tier 4:  23-32 Bad/Horrible

 

Distribution of 38 SB team rankings from 2000-2018

Total O/Pass O/Rush O/Total D/Pass D/Rush D/  QBR
T1:  21 /   19    /    18    /    22    /    11    /    23     /    30
T2:  12 /    9     /     7     /     2     /    12    /    4       /     2
T3:   4  /    5     /     5     /     8     /     6     /    8       /     4
T4:   1  /    5     /     8     /     6     /     9     /    3       /     2

 

Colts Current Rank / Tier / # SB Contenders equal to or below / % of SB teams equal to or worse
Total O: 25th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Pass O: 30th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Rush O: 7th  / T1 /  24  / 63%
Total D: 16th  / T2 / 15  /  39%
Pass D: 23rd  / T4 /  9  /  24%
Rush D: 7th  / T1 /  20  /  53%
QBR: 20th  / T3 /  2  /  5%

 

Team specific data.

TO=Total Offense, PO=Pass Offense, RO=Rush Offense, TD=Total Defense, PD=Pass Defense, RD=Rush Offense

TO, PO, RO, TD, PD, and RD are all team/unit ranks 1-32. QBR is an individual rank (1-32) with the exception of two years when a team had 2 QBs play 6+ games each (in which case QBR is averaged). 

 

2018W (NE) TO 5 (PO 8/RO 5), TD 21 (PD 22/RD 11), QBR 9
2018L (LAR) TO 2 (PO 5/RO 3), TD 19 (PD 14/RD 23), QBR 10
2017W (PH) TO 7 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 4 (PD 17/RD 1), QBR 1
2017L (NE) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 10), TD 29 (PD 30/RD 20), QBR 3
2016W (NE ) TO 4 (PO 4/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 12/RD 4), QBR 2
2016L (ATL) TO 2 (PO 3/RO 5), TD 25 (PD 28/RD 17), QBR 1
2015W (DEN) TO 16 (PO 14/RO 17), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 25
2015L (CAR) TO 11 (PO 24/RO 2), TD 6 (PD 11/RD 4), QBR 9
2014W (NE) TO 11 (PO 9/RO 18), TD 13 (PD 17/RD 9), QBR 3
2014L (SEA) TO 9 (PO 27/RO 1), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 6
2013W (SEA) TO 17 (PO 1/RO 4), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 8), QBR 7
2013L (DEN) TO 1 (PO 26/RO 15), TD 19 (PD 27/RD 7), QBR 2
2012W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 15/RO 11), TD 17 (PD 17/RD 20), QBR 18
2012L (SF) TO 11 (PO 23/RO 4), TD 3 (PD 4/RD 4), QBR 8*
2011W (NYG) TO 8 (PO 5/RO 32), TD 27 (PD 29/RD 19), QBR 9
2011L (NE) TO 2 (PO 2/RO 20), TD 31 (PD 31/RD 17), QBR 3
2010W (GB) TO 9 (PO 5/RO 24), TD 5 (PD 5/RD 18), QBR 6
2010L (PIT) TO 14 (PO 14/RO 11), TD 2 (PD 12/RD 1), QBR 7
2009W (NO) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 6), TD 25  (PD 26/RD 21), QBR 1
2009L (IN) TO 9 (PO 4/RO 32), TD 18 (PD 14/RD 24), QBR 2
2008W (PIT) TO 22 (PO 17/RO 23), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 2), QBR 26
2008L (AZ) TO 4 (PO 2/RO 32), TD 19 (PD 22/RD 16), QBR 3
2007W (NYG) TO 16 (PO 21/RO 4), TD 7 (PD 11/RD 8), QBR 18
2007L (NE) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 13), TD 4 (PD 6/RD 10), QBR 1
2006W (IN) TO 3 (PO 2/RO 18), TD 21 (PD 2/RD 32), QBR 1
2006L (CHI) TO 15 (PO 14/RO 15), TD 5 (PD 11/RD 6), QBR 19
2005W (PIT) TO 15 (PO 24/RO 5), TD 4 (PD 16/RD 3), QB-R 3
2005L (SEA) TO 2 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 17 (PD 25/RD 5), QB-R 4
2004W (NE) TO 7 (PO 11/RO 7), TD 9 (PD 17/RD 6), QB-R 9
2004L (PH) TO 9 (PO 7/RO 24), TD 10 (PD 12/RD 16), QB-R 4
2003W (NE) TO 17 (PO 9/RO 27), TD 7 (PD 15/RD 4), QB-R 10
2003L (CAR) TO 16 (PO 18/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 9/RD 11), QB-R 14
2002W (TB) TO 24 (PO 15/RO 27), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 6), QB-R 3
2002L (OAK) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 18), TD 11 (PD 23/RD 3), QB-R 2
2001W (NE) TO 19 (PO 22/RO 13), TD 24 (PD 24/RD 19), QB-R 6
2001L (LAR) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 5), TD 3 (PD 11/RD 3), QB-R 1
2000W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 22/RO 5), TD 2 (PD 8/RD 1), QB-R 20
2000L (NYG) TO 13 (PO 13/RO 11), TD 5 (PD 16/RD 2), QB-R 12
 

Note, "QB Rating" was used in place of QBR for years prior to 2006 (ESPN created QBR in advance of the 2006 season)

 

Note2, I did those over a few sittings, and eyeballs going cross towards the end.... so, let me know if you find any errors or have any questions.

This goes so far above and beyond the call of duty, I think a moderator should issue some sort of fan medal for this one! I actually need to set some time aside to really read through this...thanks for putting forth this type of effort to make the forum better.

[EastStreet]

8 hours ago, Rally5 said:

This goes so far above and beyond the call of duty, I think a moderator should issue some sort of fan medal for this one! I actually need to set some time aside to really read through this...thanks for putting forth this type of effort to make the forum better.

Hope you enjoy and thank you. There are several others that put out similar from time to time. @SteelCityColt did a far better dive statistically than me not too long ago on commonality among winners. You should check it out. After you absorb, let me know if you have any requests for adds.

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, Myles said:

EastStreet, I enjoyed your post.  Sure it's not the be-all end-all of the situation, but it does point out the common denominators of teams that make the Super Bowl.  

Yup, never meant to be all or end all!

The trending does tell us a lot though.