Turning the Colts into a SB Contender: What history tells us (2000-2018)

[EastStreet]

I've seen some stats tossed around about "building" a team that can compete for a Super Bowl. I think some of what has been tossed out is "convenient" cherry picking, so decided to finish a little drill down that I started a few months ago. Anyway, just the facts below. 

 

In short, I've looked at Super Bowl teams since 2000, and listed their unit and total ranks. I've also added QBR rank. Below is a summary of some key takeaways and conclusions. Below that, is an easy summary of total and unit tiers, and farther below is the raw data capsules of each team. I've used tiers rather than averages as I think the distribution if far more educational than a simple average (which will hide/blend outliers). I also don't discriminate in W or L in the SB, only that they made it to the SB.

 

Warning: The factual information contained below might be too much for some. If you think stats are unimportant, please ignore this thread.

 

Key Takeaways in general on SB contender data:
1. Having a QB with a Tier 1 QBR is by far the biggest commonality of Super Bowl contenders. 30 of 38 teams had Tier 1 (top 10) QBRs. QBR is far more important than passing YPG, rushing YPG, or any D total or unit stat.
2. Balance in O and D is best, but O is significantly more important. 33 of 38 teams where above the median in Total O, while only 24 of 38 were above the median in Total D.
3. Passing O vs Rushing O was very similar, but Passing O had a slight edge in importance.
4. Passing D vs Rushing D was similar compared to the median, but T1 Rushing Ds were far more prevelant.

 

Colts Current Rank and Contender Comparison:
1. Zero teams have played in a SB with our current Total O and Pass O rank
2. Only 2 of 38 (5%) teams have played in a SB with our current QBR rank or lower. Those QBs were Peyton and Big Ben.
3. Our Rush O is as good or equal to 63% of SB contenders 
4. Our Total D is as good or equal to 39% of SB contenders and T2
5. Our Pass D is as good or equal to 24% of SB contenders and T4
6. Our Run D is as good as or equal to 53% of SB contenders and T1

 

Conclusion / Recommendation
1. QB is by far the most important thing to address (draft or FA) based on our current rank in QBR and Passing 0. 
2. Passing D is the second biggest need although almost a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse Tier rank. DT please.
3. Total D while slightly below the SB contender median, was still T2 (current year)
3, Our Rush O and Rush D are both Tier 1, and well within SB contender performance (50+%).

 

Tier Definition
Tier 1:  1-10 Good/Great
Tier 2:  11-16 AMA (Above Median / Average) 
Tier 3:  17-22 BMA (Below Median / Average)
Tier 4:  23-32 Bad/Horrible

 

Distribution of 38 SB team rankings from 2000-2018

Total O/Pass O/Rush O/Total D/Pass D/Rush D/  QBR
T1:  21 /   19    /    18    /    22    /    11    /    23     /    30
T2:  12 /    9     /     7     /     2     /    12    /    4       /     2
T3:   4  /    5     /     5     /     8     /     6     /    8       /     4
T4:   1  /    5     /     8     /     6     /     9     /    3       /     2

 

Colts Current Rank / Tier / # SB Contenders equal to or below / % of SB teams equal to or worse
Total O: 25th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Pass O: 30th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Rush O: 7th  / T1 /  24  / 63%
Total D: 16th  / T2 / 15  /  39%
Pass D: 23rd  / T4 /  9  /  24%
Rush D: 7th  / T1 /  20  /  53%
QBR: 20th  / T3 /  2  /  5%

 

Team specific data.

TO=Total Offense, PO=Pass Offense, RO=Rush Offense, TD=Total Defense, PD=Pass Defense, RD=Rush Offense

TO, PO, RO, TD, PD, and RD are all team/unit ranks 1-32. QBR is an individual rank (1-32) with the exception of two years when a team had 2 QBs play 6+ games each (in which case QBR is averaged). 

 

2018W (NE) TO 5 (PO 8/RO 5), TD 21 (PD 22/RD 11), QBR 9
2018L (LAR) TO 2 (PO 5/RO 3), TD 19 (PD 14/RD 23), QBR 10
2017W (PH) TO 7 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 4 (PD 17/RD 1), QBR 1
2017L (NE) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 10), TD 29 (PD 30/RD 20), QBR 3
2016W (NE ) TO 4 (PO 4/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 12/RD 4), QBR 2
2016L (ATL) TO 2 (PO 3/RO 5), TD 25 (PD 28/RD 17), QBR 1
2015W (DEN) TO 16 (PO 14/RO 17), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 25
2015L (CAR) TO 11 (PO 24/RO 2), TD 6 (PD 11/RD 4), QBR 9
2014W (NE) TO 11 (PO 9/RO 18), TD 13 (PD 17/RD 9), QBR 3
2014L (SEA) TO 9 (PO 27/RO 1), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 6
2013W (SEA) TO 17 (PO 1/RO 4), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 8), QBR 7
2013L (DEN) TO 1 (PO 26/RO 15), TD 19 (PD 27/RD 7), QBR 2
2012W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 15/RO 11), TD 17 (PD 17/RD 20), QBR 18
2012L (SF) TO 11 (PO 23/RO 4), TD 3 (PD 4/RD 4), QBR 8*
2011W (NYG) TO 8 (PO 5/RO 32), TD 27 (PD 29/RD 19), QBR 9
2011L (NE) TO 2 (PO 2/RO 20), TD 31 (PD 31/RD 17), QBR 3
2010W (GB) TO 9 (PO 5/RO 24), TD 5 (PD 5/RD 18), QBR 6
2010L (PIT) TO 14 (PO 14/RO 11), TD 2 (PD 12/RD 1), QBR 7
2009W (NO) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 6), TD 25  (PD 26/RD 21), QBR 1
2009L (IN) TO 9 (PO 4/RO 32), TD 18 (PD 14/RD 24), QBR 2
2008W (PIT) TO 22 (PO 17/RO 23), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 2), QBR 26
2008L (AZ) TO 4 (PO 2/RO 32), TD 19 (PD 22/RD 16), QBR 3
2007W (NYG) TO 16 (PO 21/RO 4), TD 7 (PD 11/RD 8), QBR 18
2007L (NE) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 13), TD 4 (PD 6/RD 10), QBR 1
2006W (IN) TO 3 (PO 2/RO 18), TD 21 (PD 2/RD 32), QBR 1
2006L (CHI) TO 15 (PO 14/RO 15), TD 5 (PD 11/RD 6), QBR 19
2005W (PIT) TO 15 (PO 24/RO 5), TD 4 (PD 16/RD 3), QB-R 3
2005L (SEA) TO 2 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 17 (PD 25/RD 5), QB-R 4
2004W (NE) TO 7 (PO 11/RO 7), TD 9 (PD 17/RD 6), QB-R 9
2004L (PH) TO 9 (PO 7/RO 24), TD 10 (PD 12/RD 16), QB-R 4
2003W (NE) TO 17 (PO 9/RO 27), TD 7 (PD 15/RD 4), QB-R 10
2003L (CAR) TO 16 (PO 18/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 9/RD 11), QB-R 14
2002W (TB) TO 24 (PO 15/RO 27), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 6), QB-R 3
2002L (OAK) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 18), TD 11 (PD 23/RD 3), QB-R 2
2001W (NE) TO 19 (PO 22/RO 13), TD 24 (PD 24/RD 19), QB-R 6
2001L (LAR) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 5), TD 3 (PD 11/RD 3), QB-R 1
2000W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 22/RO 5), TD 2 (PD 8/RD 1), QB-R 20
2000L (NYG) TO 13 (PO 13/RO 11), TD 5 (PD 16/RD 2), QB-R 12
 

Note, "QB Rating" was used in place of QBR for years prior to 2006 (ESPN created QBR in advance of the 2006 season)

 

Note2, I did those over a few sittings, and eyeballs going cross towards the end.... so, let me know if you find any errors or have any questions.

[MPStack]

Well done @EastStreet

[EastStreet]

The TLDR....

 

1. QBR was the strongest commonality of SB contenders. And our current QBR is bad to below average. Only 2 teams in the past 19 years had the same or worse QBRs (Peyton and Big Ben). Drafting a QB or finding one in FA should be top priority.

2. Our second biggest gap is Pass Defense. DT capable of pass rushing please via the draft or FA pretty please.

3. Rush O, and Rush D, are Tier 1, and are better than 50+% of SB contender over 19 years.

Just now, MPStack said:

Well done @EastStreet

Thank you kind sir.

[stitches]

Good job.

 

One thing I would dispute is DT being the thing that will impact our pass defense the most. IMO better CB performance is a thing that will help pass D more. Now the question is whether we already have the players to do it(internal improvement) or we should look for it in the draft/FA...

 

 

[The Fish]

Being able to run the ball and stop the run is important, but without a QB, it doesn't really matter. Noted.

 

I'd strongly consider a FA QB (I'll show myself out-again).

[chad72]

QBR plays into keeping drives alive, 3rd down conversions and converting drives in the red zone into TDs, IMO.  Defensively, being top 10 in D categories like points allowed or turnover ratio can make up for lower rankings in yardage allowed, IMO. Rushing offense may be key to control tempo but the QB still has to convert those 3rd downs via passing to keep drives alive for points. Teams like the Patriots use the short pass like a run to get positive yardage consistently.

 

So, even if it was a 5 FG game vs Ravens in the divisional playoff round, Peyton converted several key 3rd downs in the passing game to keep drives alive against an elite defensive unit.

 

This is a very good article you guys need to read:

 

https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/

 

 

[SteelCityColt]

I’d interested to see how ANY/A for a QB plays compared to QBR. 
 

Good work sir.

[Coffeedrinker]

That's a lot of work @EastStreet thanks for the time and effort.  I can't wait until I have time to really dig into it.

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, stitches said:

Good job.

 

One thing I would dispute is DT being the thing that will impact our pass defense the most. IMO better CB performance is a thing that will help pass D more. Now the question is whether we already have the players to do it(internal improvement) or we should look for it in the draft/FA...

 

We're bottom ten in total QB pressure, and that simply has to improve in we are going to use a zone D scheme. Zone only works with a decent rush, and we don't have one. I think you would be surprised at how much better our CBs and Ss would look if we had a better pass rush.

[Gigc]

No offense, but it would be better to study 1978 through 1998 to determine how to create a Super Bowl contender. 

That was the distance between Bert Jones and Peyton Manning.

If you have a QB, you have a darn good chance of building a sustained winner, and a shot at a Super Bowl.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

I’d interested to see how ANY/A for a QB plays compared to QBR. 
 

Good work sir.

Thanks SCC

Give me a day or two, and I'll add it. 

I'd do it tonight but tired from travel lol. A nap is in my near future.

 

2 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

That's a lot of work @EastStreet thanks for the time and effort.  I can't wait until I have time to really dig into it.

My pleasure. I like digging, and since we aren't in the playoffs, starting my digging into draft stuff early. 

[Yoshinator]

Nice thread @EastStreet! Shows we have a long way to go.

[EastStreet]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Nice thread @EastStreet! Shows we have a long way to go.

Actually, not that long if you look at the distribution. QBR/PassO is the only huge outlier in terms of commonality. Not saying finding a QB is easy, but we don't need a T1 guy in passing yards/game (T2 will do), just one that's T1 in QBR (smart/efficient). IMO that, combined with a legit DT could turn us around quickly. Get one in the draft, one in FA... 

[chrisfarley]

@EastStreet Stats Ninja.  Loving this.

[richard pallo]

16 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Actually, not that long if you look at the distribution. QBR/PassO is the only huge outlier in terms of commonality. Not saying finding a QB is easy, but we don't need a T1 guy in passing yards/game (T2 will do), just one that's T1 in QBR (smart/efficient). IMO that, combined with a legit DT could turn us around quickly. Get one in the draft, one in FA... 

Great job EastStreet.  Just for fun do you have any idea what Tier Carr, Dalton, Newton or Darnold fall under?  I'm not really interested in Manning, Rivers or Brady since they are past their prime so to speak.  

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Great job EastStreet.  Just for fun do you have any idea what Tier Carr, Dalton, Newton or Darnold fall under?  I'm not really interested in Manning, Rivers or Brady since they are past their prime so to speak.  

Thanks RP.

I'll add that info (for the 7 you mention) tonight or tomorrow when I add ANY/A for SteelCity

[Edo]

39 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

We're bottom ten in total QB pressure, and that simply has to improve in we are going to use a zone D scheme. Zone only works with a decent rush, and we don't have one. I think you would be surprised at how much better our CBs and Ss would look if we had a better pass rush.

 

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I've seen some stats tossed around about "building" a team that can compete for a Super Bowl. I think some of what has been tossed out is "convenient" cherry picking, so decided to finish a little drill down that I started a few months ago. Anyway, just the facts below. 

 

In short, I've looked at Super Bowl teams since 2000, and listed their unit and total ranks. I've also added QBR rank. Below is a summary of some key takeaways and conclusions. Below that, is an easy summary of total and unit tiers, and farther below is the raw data capsules of each team. I've used tiers rather than averages as I think the distribution if far more educational than a simple average (which will hide/blend outliers). I also don't discriminate in W or L in the SB, only that they made it to the SB.

 

Warning: The factual information contained below might be too much for some (especially fanboys). If you are afraid of facts, or think stats are unimportant, please ignore this thread and spare the rest from anecdotal throw up.

 

Key Takeaways in general on SB contender data:
1. Having a QB with a Tier 1 QBR is by far the biggest commonality of Super Bowl contenders. 30 of 38 teams had Tier 1 (top 10) QBRs. QBR is far more important than passing YPG, rushing YPG, or any D total or unit stat.
2. Balance in O and D is best, but O is significantly more important. 33 of 38 teams where above the median in Total O, while only 24 of 38 were above the median in Total D.
3. Passing O vs Rushing O was very similar, but Passing O had a slight edge in importance.
4. Passing D vs Rushing D was similar compared to the median, but T1 Rushing Ds were far more prevelant.

 

Colts Current Rank and Contender Comparison:
1. Zero teams have played in a SB with our current Total O and Pass O rank
2. Only 2 of 38 (5%) teams have played in a SB with our current QBR rank or lower. Those QBs were Peyton and Big Ben.
3. Our Rush O is as good or equal to 63% of SB contenders 
4. Our Total D is as good or equal to 39% of SB contenders and T2
5. Our Pass D is as good or equal to 24% of SB contenders and T4
6. Our Run D is as good as or equal to 53% of SB contenders and T1

 

Conclusion / Recommendation
1. QB is by far the most important thing to address (draft or FA) based on our current rank in QBR and Passing 0. 
2. Passing D is the second biggest need although almost a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse Tier rank. DT please.
3. Total D while slightly below the SB contender median, was still T2 (current year)
3, Our Rush O and Rush D are both Tier 1, and well within SB contender performance (50+%).

 

Tier Definition
Tier 1:  1-10 Good/Great
Tier 2:  11-16 AMA (Above Median / Average) 
Tier 3:  17-22 BMA (Below Median / Average)
Tier 4:  23-32 Bad/Horrible

 

Distribution of 38 SB team rankings from 2000-2018

Total O/Pass O/Rush O/Total D/Pass D/Rush D/  QBR
T1:  21 /   19    /    18    /    22    /    11    /    23     /    30
T2:  12 /    9     /     7     /     2     /    12    /    4       /     2
T3:   4  /    5     /     5     /     8     /     6     /    8       /     4
T4:   1  /    5     /     8     /     6     /     9     /    3       /     2

 

Colts Current Rank / Tier / # SB Contenders equal to or below / % of SB teams equal to or worse
Total O: 25th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Pass O: 30th  / T4 /  0  /  0%
Rush O: 7th  / T1 /  24  / 63%
Total D: 16th  / T2 / 15  /  39%
Pass D: 23rd  / T4 /  9  /  24%
Rush D: 7th  / T1 /  20  /  53%
QBR: 20th  / T3 /  2  /  5%

 

Team specific data.

TO=Total Offense, PO=Pass Offense, RO=Rush Offense, TD=Total Defense, PD=Pass Defense, RD=Rush Offense

TO, PO, RO, TD, PD, and RD are all team/unit ranks 1-32. QBR is an individual rank (1-32) with the exception of two years when a team had 2 QBs play 6+ games each (in which case QBR is averaged). 

 

2018W (NE) TO 5 (PO 8/RO 5), TD 21 (PD 22/RD 11), QBR 9
2018L (LAR) TO 2 (PO 5/RO 3), TD 19 (PD 14/RD 23), QBR 10
2017W (PH) TO 7 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 4 (PD 17/RD 1), QBR 1
2017L (NE) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 10), TD 29 (PD 30/RD 20), QBR 3
2016W (NE ) TO 4 (PO 4/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 12/RD 4), QBR 2
2016L (ATL) TO 2 (PO 3/RO 5), TD 25 (PD 28/RD 17), QBR 1
2015W (DEN) TO 16 (PO 14/RO 17), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 25
2015L (CAR) TO 11 (PO 24/RO 2), TD 6 (PD 11/RD 4), QBR 9
2014W (NE) TO 11 (PO 9/RO 18), TD 13 (PD 17/RD 9), QBR 3
2014L (SEA) TO 9 (PO 27/RO 1), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 3), QBR 6
2013W (SEA) TO 17 (PO 1/RO 4), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 8), QBR 7
2013L (DEN) TO 1 (PO 26/RO 15), TD 19 (PD 27/RD 7), QBR 2
2012W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 15/RO 11), TD 17 (PD 17/RD 20), QBR 18
2012L (SF) TO 11 (PO 23/RO 4), TD 3 (PD 4/RD 4), QBR 8*
2011W (NYG) TO 8 (PO 5/RO 32), TD 27 (PD 29/RD 19), QBR 9
2011L (NE) TO 2 (PO 2/RO 20), TD 31 (PD 31/RD 17), QBR 3
2010W (GB) TO 9 (PO 5/RO 24), TD 5 (PD 5/RD 18), QBR 6
2010L (PIT) TO 14 (PO 14/RO 11), TD 2 (PD 12/RD 1), QBR 7
2009W (NO) TO 1 (PO 2/RO 6), TD 25  (PD 26/RD 21), QBR 1
2009L (IN) TO 9 (PO 4/RO 32), TD 18 (PD 14/RD 24), QBR 2
2008W (PIT) TO 22 (PO 17/RO 23), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 2), QBR 26
2008L (AZ) TO 4 (PO 2/RO 32), TD 19 (PD 22/RD 16), QBR 3
2007W (NYG) TO 16 (PO 21/RO 4), TD 7 (PD 11/RD 8), QBR 18
2007L (NE) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 13), TD 4 (PD 6/RD 10), QBR 1
2006W (IN) TO 3 (PO 2/RO 18), TD 21 (PD 2/RD 32), QBR 1
2006L (CHI) TO 15 (PO 14/RO 15), TD 5 (PD 11/RD 6), QBR 19
2005W (PIT) TO 15 (PO 24/RO 5), TD 4 (PD 16/RD 3), QB-R 3
2005L (SEA) TO 2 (PO 13/RO 3), TD 17 (PD 25/RD 5), QB-R 4
2004W (NE) TO 7 (PO 11/RO 7), TD 9 (PD 17/RD 6), QB-R 9
2004L (PH) TO 9 (PO 7/RO 24), TD 10 (PD 12/RD 16), QB-R 4
2003W (NE) TO 17 (PO 9/RO 27), TD 7 (PD 15/RD 4), QB-R 10
2003L (CAR) TO 16 (PO 18/RO 7), TD 8 (PD 9/RD 11), QB-R 14
2002W (TB) TO 24 (PO 15/RO 27), TD 1 (PD 1/RD 6), QB-R 3
2002L (OAK) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 18), TD 11 (PD 23/RD 3), QB-R 2
2001W (NE) TO 19 (PO 22/RO 13), TD 24 (PD 24/RD 19), QB-R 6
2001L (LAR) TO 1 (PO 1/RO 5), TD 3 (PD 11/RD 3), QB-R 1
2000W (BAL) TO 16 (PO 22/RO 5), TD 2 (PD 8/RD 1), QB-R 20
2000L (NYG) TO 13 (PO 13/RO 11), TD 5 (PD 16/RD 2), QB-R 12
 

Note, "QB Rating" was used in place of QBR for years prior to 2006 (ESPN created QBR in advance of the 2006 season)

 

Note2, I did those over a few sittings, and eyeballs going cross towards the end.... so, let me know if you find any errors or have any questions.

 

Thank you very much for this work. This data analysis is very interesting and informative. 

Although may be Chris Ballard sees a future Elite QB's in JB despite the strong reserves the fans may have. 

May I show your analysis to a French Football website made by fans? 

[John Hammonds]

Mike McCarthy has promised to pay attention to this post.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Mike McCarthy has promised to pay attention to this post.

MM shouldn't have a hard time at all assuming he can coach better than JG. And that shouldn't be hard.

[deedub75]

QB seems the be the determining factor over the last 20 years for the Colts to even make it to the playoffs.  Colts have not made it to the playoffs over the last 20 years without Manning or Luck. This trend needs to be broken. I don’t want to see the Colts having to draft a QB at #1 to make it back to the playoffs. 

[Nickster]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

The TLDR....

 

1. QBR was the strongest commonality of SB contenders. And our current QBR is bad to below average. Only 2 teams in the past 19 years had the same or worse QBRs (Peyton and Big Ben). Drafting a QB or finding one in FA should be top priority.

2. Our second biggest gap is Pass Defense. DT capable of pass rushing please via the draft or FA pretty please.

3. Rush O, and Rush D, are Tier 1, and are better than 50+% of SB contender over 19 years.

Thank you kind sir.

Good stuff.  
 

Couple issues.  DTs that can rush the QB are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.  If Castanzo is serious and retires, LTs are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.

 

So it is difficult to get either a Tier 1 QB and a DT that can rush the passer in any draft let alone both in the same draft.  If you at an LT to that mix it’s pert  near impossible.

 

We could be screwed for years to come if AC doesn’t resign and we bust on a QB draft which is about a 50/50 spin in the first round let alone later.

 

Best case IMO is to sign the vet QB you think is best chance and draft a QB if you like one.  I still think this team is competitive with a decent QB now.

 

Andrew has just killed the org by quitting.  Not that it isn’t his choice but that’s the reality.

 

If AC retires LT is perhaps priority 1.  Open the checkbook and make him an offer he can’t refuse.  Cut Brisett And allocate that money there.

my amateur choice of vet signing is Rivers.

 

[EastStreet]

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Good stuff.  
 

Couple issues.  DTs that can rush the QB are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.  If Castanzo is serious and retires, LTs are possibly rarer than Tier 1 QBs.

 

So it is difficult to get either a Tier 1 QB and a DT that can rush the passer in any draft let alone both in the same draft.  If you at an LT to that mix it’s pert  near impossible.

 

We could be screwed for years to come if AC doesn’t resign and we bust on a QB draft which is about a 50/50 spin in the first round let alone later.

 

Best case IMO is to sign the vet QB you think is best chance and draft a QB if you like one.  I still think this team is competitive with a decent QB now.

 

Andrew has just killed the org by quitting.  Not that it isn’t his choice but that’s the reality.

 

If AC retires LT is perhaps priority 1.  Open the checkbook and make him an offer he can’t refuse.  Cut Brisett And allocate that money there.

my amateur choice of vet signing is Rivers.

 

Kinlaw IMO will be a good DT that can rush, and he likely can be had at 13 or 16. If not, spend some cap on a FA

 

T1 QBR guys aren't impossible to get. Did you know that Carr, Fitzmagic, and Tannehill are all top 10 QBR rated this year? And none of those team have the OL that we do. And only one has a better supporting RB group (TN).

 

Did you know that OL has the best AV rating through all rounds, and that second round OLs have 10% greater AV than first round on average. Also, 4th round AV is slightly more than 1st? Not going to worry about AC until he says he's retiring. I'd also bet he's coming back.

 

Thanks for the Kudos

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

@EastStreet, great work man. Thanks for the time and effort. I will comment here in a while.

[EastStreet]

17 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

@EastStreet, great work man. Thanks for the time and effort. I will comment here in a while.

You're welcome CBE. Hope you enjoy. 

[RollerColt]

I love these kinds of posts, plenty of analytics and facts. Reminds me of the old days on this forum. The way of the future is clear. Great job EastStreet!

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Kinlaw IMO will be a good DT that can rush, and he likely can be had at 13 or 16. If not, spend some cap on a FA

 

T1 QBR guys aren't impossible to get. Did you know that Carr, Fitzmagic, and Tannehill are all top 10 QBR rated this year? And none of those team have the OL that we do. And only one has a better supporting RB group (TN).

 

Did you know that OL has the best AV rating through all rounds, and that second round OLs have 10% greater AV than first round on average. Also, 4th round AV is slightly more than 1st? Not going to worry about AC until he says he's retiring. I'd also bet he's coming back.

 

Thanks for the Kudos

 

yeah but good LTs are very rare.  The other 4 positions are different than LTs.

 

what Pass rushing DTs are on the market?

 

None of it matters without a QB though.

[EastStreet]

23 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

I love these kinds of posts, plenty of analytics and facts. Reminds me of the old days on this forum. The way of the future is clear. Great job EastStreet!

Thanks RC!

Let me know if there's anything in particular you'd like added.

[EastStreet]

28 minutes ago, Nickster said:

yeah but good LTs are very rare.  The other 4 positions are different than LTs.

I think if you look at the top 16 rated LTs, you might be a little surprised.

28 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

what Pass rushing DTs are on the market?

Here's blip from one article. 

Quote

 

1. Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs

2. Grady Jarrett, Atlanta Falcons

3. Michael Brockers, Los Angeles Rams

4. Leonard Williams, New York Jets

5. Jarran Reed, Seattle Seahawks

 

This is a nearly unprecedented collection of talent along the defensive line. Chris Jones and Grady Jarrett are elite performers and should be paid near the top of the market. But the class has depth too.

 

Michael Brockers and Leonard Williams are excellent and can play at multiple spots along the line. Their raw stats aren't the best, but they're capable of creating opportunities for others. Both should be valued, with Williams the better long-term player. He'll be just 26 next summer.

 

Jarran Reed might be the biggest potential riser. He had 10.5 sacks last year and improved against the run. Frank Clark opened some of Reed's sack opportunities, but he'd become a top-three tackle in this group with another performance like 2018.

 

28 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

None of it matters without a QB though.

Yup

[Pacergeek]

I appreciate the hard work, but I have a hard time believing the defense is anywhere close to a SB contender. Numbers inflated vs teams with bad QB's. If your defense allows a QB to complete 29/30 passes, your defense stinks.

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, Pacergeek said:

I appreciate the hard work, but I have a hard time believing the defense is anywhere close to a SB contender. Numbers inflated vs teams with bad QB's. If your defense allows a QB to complete 29/30 passes, your defense stinks.

Not sure if you misread, but our Pass D is T4 (bad), but as I pointed out, about a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse ranked pass D. Our Run D is T1 though.

[Pacergeek]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Not sure if you misread, but our Pass D is T4 (bad), but as I pointed out, about a quarter of SB teams had the same or worse ranked pass D. Our Run D is T1 though.

The pass defense seems very low for SB teams. I think if you did the study for only the last decade, there would be very few T4.

[WoolMagnet]

Like what you’ve done.

would love to see stats without Patriot seasons.  They make up over 20% i think.

  There were also close to a decades worth of seasons where the difference between QB 1-10 To 11- was GREATLY vast.  I think in your timeframe, 4 QBs have over half the SBs (Brady, Manning,Manning,BigBen)

  I agree about the advantage of a “top level QB”.  Finding one tho, is another issue.

 

  So it stands to reason that you still build that defense, running game, etc anyway.  Then when/if you find that QB, you’re ahead of the game.

  The run of Manning and Luck makes it seems so easy to find one.  Finding lightning in a bottle not so easy when you dont have the #1.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, Pacergeek said:

The pass defense seems very low for SB teams. I think if you did the study for only the last decade, there would be very few T4.

Look at the data. It's all included. Spans from 2000-2018. 19 years and 38 teams.

 

Heck, just last year NE's pass D was ranked 22nd (ours is 23rd this year). the year before that, same team (NE), and Pass D was 30th... Thre year before that (2016), ATL was 28th.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Like what you’ve done.

would love to see stats without Patriot seasons.  They make up over 20% i think.

  There were also close to a decades worth of seasons where the difference between QB 1-10 To 11- was GREATLY vast.  Still kinda is .

  I agree about the advantage of a “top level QB”.  Finding one tho, is another issue.

 

  So it stands to reason that you still build that defense, running game, etc anyway.  Then when/if you find that QB, you’re ahead of the game.

  The run of Manning and Luck makes it seems so easy to find one.  Finding lightning in a bottle not so easy when you dont have the #1.

Like I said in an earlier post, Tannehill, Fitzmagic, and Carr are all top 10 (T1) QBR rated this year.. Finding one doesn't seem impossible.

[ojsglove]

Great post ES but i'm just not a big stat guy, especially when it comes to team sports.  To me your stat's point to the fact that we need help on the defensive side of the ball and a better QB?  Sorry brother, but allot of forum members have been saying this for months.  Again, I applaud you on the effort you put forth compiling the stats, and you have my permission to call me a fan boy.  

[WoolMagnet]

3 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Look at the data. It's all included. Spans from 2000-2018. 19 years and 38 teams.

 

Heck, just last year NE's pass D was ranked 22nd (ours is 23rd this year). the year before that, same team (NE), and Pass D was 30th... Thre year before that (2016), ATL was 28th.

Hard to ignore their pass defense was low due to opponents having to pass,pass,pass because they ate so far behind.  Teams go into prevent, give them the catches, and let clock run. Obviously it also improved their run defense stats as teams gave up on the run.  Its natural for the best teams to have numbers like this on defense.

[EastStreet]

Just now, ojsglove said:

Great post ES but i'm just not a big stat guy, especially when it comes to team sports.  To me your stat's point to the fact that we need help on the defensive side of the ball and a better QB?  Sorry brother, but allot of forum members have been saying this for months.  Again, I applaud you on the effort you put forth compiling the stats, and you have my permission to call me a fan boy.  

A lot of people have been saying (and creating threads) about keeping JB an building around him, some wanting new RBs, and other hot takes. Pretty much the opposite of what the data tells us. One interesting thing/takeaway is that QBR>Passing O by a pretty good margin. Also that passing O and Run D are more common than Run O and Passing D.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Hard to ignore their pass defense was low due to opponents having to pass,pass,pass because they ate so far behind.  Teams go into prevent, give them the catches, and let clock run. Obviously it also improved their run defense stats as teams gave up on the run.  Its natural for the best teams to have numbers like this on defense.

30th? 28th?

 

 

[Nickster]

It would be shocking to see Jones on the market.  They'll lock him up or franchise him.  

 

It's probably more likely that Jarran's big year was the exception not the rule.

 

I wouldn't call the other guys pass rushing DTs.  

[WoolMagnet]

15 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Like I said in an earlier post, Tannehill, Fitzmagic, and Carr are all top 10 (T1) QBR rated this year.. Finding one doesn't seem impossible.

Rated THIS YEAR is a pretty big line.  
  I’m open to anything.  I just struggle when trying to think of a FA QB that really panned out the way planned.  The risk is ok if you have a favorable out in contract.  But no way i invest a big, long-term on a “2nd (or more) chance” guy who “never quite reached his potential.”

a little funny 2 of the QBs teams you mentioned didnt even get a wildcard with that impressive “T1rating.”  Especially since, in your original argument Was the most important factor to success.

not really trying to argue with you as i do agree in basic terms.  My point is it isnt as black and white as the numbers seem to suggest.

  I love the numbers tho, i’m a numbers guy.  I too feel alot can be learned provided it is filtered correctly.