BlueShoe

Sucking it up, Colts batting order update (Week 15 edition)

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Updated to reflect the results of the early games.

 

The Indianapolis Colts will finish week 15 batting 3rd in the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

Unfortunately, a 5-11 record is the best the Colts can boast in 2017. Therefore, the worst draft pick the Colts can finish with is #10 (changed from #11 after Redskins win). The Colts are out-of-the-running for the #1 overall pick. Cleveland's loss today eliminated the Colts from any chance of picking first in 2018. However, it's still very possible for the Colts to end up with the #2 overall pick.

 

Indianapolis Colts:

Week 16: Colts at Ravens

Week 17 Texans at Colts

 

New York Giants:

Week 16: Giants at Cardinals

Week 17: Redskins at Giants

 

Cleveland Browns:

Week 16: Browns at Bears

Week 17: Browns at Steelers

 

If the Colts split the last two games, and finish the season at 4-12, then the worst draft pick the Colts could end up with is #7. That said, if the Colts finish with a 4-12 record then realistically they would earn the #5 pick.

 

UPDATE: Giants lose to Eagles 29 to 34, and retain the #2 overall pick. 

Only 1 game can possibly influence the Colts draft status in week 15. The New York Giants are hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. While it’s not likely the Giants will pull off the upset, last week the Eagles lost their starting quarterback for the season. The Eagles also have the division wrapped up, so as the game goes on then maybe they decide to sit players, and get their backups some work. This is also the NFC East we are talking about, and those divisional games are never a given. These dynamics strengthen the possibility of a Giants win from “not a snowballs chance” to “anything is possible”.

 

As we all know our Colts have already lost this week (on Thursday) to the Denver Broncos. There is no danger of any (week 15) outcome costing the Colts the #3 draft spot. San Francisco (the only other 3-win team), will finish the day with a better strength of schedule than the Colts (.493). The 49ers play the 8-5 Tennessee Titans. Consequently, the 49ers (.514) strength of schedule is going to become stronger (not weaker).

 

Games of note for Week 15:

Ravens at Browns

Eagles at Giants

Titans at 49ers

Texans at Jaguars

Falcons at Buccaneers (Monday)

Bengals at Vikings

Jets at Saints

Cardinals at Redskins

 

Current Sucking It Up Standings:

 
PICK TEAM WINS LOSSES GAMES WIN% SOS
1
Cleveland
0 14 14 0.000 0.520
2
NY Giants
2 12 14 0.143 0.525
3
Indianapolis
3 11 14 0.214 0.491
4
San Francisco
3 10 13 0.231 0.514
5
Houston (CLE)
4 10 14 0.286 0.507
6
Chicago
4 10 14 0.286 0.559
7
Tampa Bay
4 9 13 0.308 0.557
8
Cincinnati
5 9 14 0.357 0.480
9
Denver
5 9 14 0.357 0.482
10
NY Jets
5 9 14 0.357 0.530
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I don’t know why anyone is concerned about the finish.  The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from.  Choosing 3rd to 5th isn’t going to make much of a difference.  

 

Personally, I’d love to trade the pick for more picks.  But to me, the draft needs won’t be known until after free agency.  

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3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I don’t know why anyone is concerned about the finish.  The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from.  Choosing 3rd to 5th isn’t going to make much of a difference.  

 

Personally, I’d love to trade the pick for more picks.  But to me, the draft needs won’t be known until after free agency.  

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for. 

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5 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I don’t know why anyone is concerned about the finish.  The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from.  Choosing 3rd to 5th isn’t going to make much of a difference.  

 

Personally, I’d love to trade the pick for more picks.  But to me, the draft needs won’t be known until after free agency.  

 

If we get the #2 spot then it opens a huge bidding door for a lot of possible trades. Not saying we can't trade from out of 3, 4, or 5, but that #2 spot will be lucrative.

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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for. 

 

Not a problem at all. If we stay at #2 then it will be a bidding war. 

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1 minute ago, csmopar said:

Problem is..... you gotta find a partner to trade with and really, there's not many players if any worth trading up for. 

 

Agreed.  It’s easy to,say “trade the pick”, but two of the most QB hungry teams will probably pick before us.  And then there’s the issue of what QBs are worthy.  But who thought the Bears would do what they did this year for MT?

 

So, other QB hungry teams?  Bills, Broncos, Jets, Chargers, Skins, Zona, in no particular order?  Would any of those teams want to move up, and for who?

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UPDATE:

 

Giants Just scored on an Eli Manning touchdown pass, and now lead the Eagles 13 to 7, with 1:26 to go in the first quarter.

 

The current Eagles at Giants score "tentatively" gives the Colts the #2 pick in the draft. 

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7 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

I don’t know why anyone is concerned about the finish.  The Browns and Giants will most likely take QBs so that leaves a wealth of players to select from.  Choosing 3rd to 5th isn’t going to make much of a difference.  

 

Personally, I’d love to trade the pick for more picks.  But to me, the draft needs won’t be known until after free agency.  

 

The difference is that Darnold and Rosen are a cut above any other possible QB.

 

So if we somehow manage to get the 2nd pick, if we could command a much higher return of draft picks. 

 

But if we are third and someone wants either another QB or Chubb or Barkley the return won't be quite so much.   

 

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4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Not a problem at all. If we stay at #2 then it will be a bidding war. 

 

Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2.  Why would a team trade for our pick?  Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

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6 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

If we get the #2 spot then it opens a huge bidding door for a lot of possible trades. Not saying we can't trade from out of 3, 4, or 5, but that #2 spot will be lucrative.

I agee but look at the teams that will most likely be looking for a QB....  

 

Cardinals 

Browns 

Giants 

Jets 

 

Then I considered these teams as well due to aging QB's 

 

Chargers

Pittsburgh

Vikings.  Due to never being healthy 

Jacksonville.  If Bortles doesnt seem like the future 

 

So it is possible we would get a lot of interest.   Of course we need the Giants to win and us lose out 

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Smonroe said:

 

Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2.  Why would a team trade for our pick?  Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

 

This is not your first rodeo. :)

 

If the Colts land the 2nd pick in the draft then they might as well have a public auction. 

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1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

This is not your first rodeo. :)

 

If the Colts land the 2nd pick in the draft then they might as well have a public auction. 

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

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At the end of the first quarter Giants lead the Eagles 13-7.

 

Just saying....

 

PHI   NYG
First Downs 6   10
Total Yards 64   151
Passing Yards 32   132
Rushing Yards 32   19
Penalties (Yds) 2(9)   3(47)
Turnovers 0   0
Punts (AVG) 0(0)   0(0)
Time of *. 5:02   9:58

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2 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

Because the Giants would pick 3rd and teams will want to choose their QB before the Giants pick.

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8 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

 

Why did the Bears worry about the 49ers taking (or trading with another team - Trubisky)? It is just the way it is. 

 

Every team that covets a top-rated quarterback, is going to do whatever it takes to leapfrog other teams. 

 

If we end up with #2 overall, then we control the draft. 

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4 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

Say the Browns take the most coveted QB (whoever that is), and we have 2.  Why would a team trade for our pick?  Why not call our bluff and trade for the third?

 

It would depend on if there are at least two teams that want a particular player.  If there are at least two teams, that by the time the draft comes around, that have a high grade on one of the other QBs then there could be a bidding war. If not then there would be little reason to trade up.

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UPDATE!

 

Eli Manning just threw another touchdown pass.

 

Giants lead Eagles 20-7!

 

Colts are in PRIME position to own the #2 draft spot at the end of today. Lots of football left to play; 13:44 left in the first half. 

 

PHI   NYG
First Downs 6   12
Total Yards 64   226
Passing Yards 32   207
Rushing Yards 32   19
Penalties (Yds) 3(14)   3(47)
Turnovers 0   0
Punts (AVG) 1(29)   0(0)
Time of *. 5:15   11:01

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2 minutes ago, SevaColt said:

Because the Giants would pick 3rd and teams will want to choose their QB before the Giants pick.

 

Ding ding ding!  Best answer.   I don’t think my brain is in draft mode yet.  Thanks.

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6 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

More worried about us trading to someone else than us taking the QB

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3 minutes ago, Smonroe said:

 

You didn’t answer my question.  Why would a team worry about us taking a QB, assuming we had the 2.   

Assuming Luck is ready, they're not. They are however worried another team would make the trade with us.  Wait until #3, and you could miss out.

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2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

UPDATE!

 

Eli Manning just threw another touchdown pass.

 

Giants lead Eagles 20-7!

 

Colts are in PRIME position to own the #2 draft spot at the end of today. Lots of football left to play; 13:44 left in the first half. 

Yeah, they'll probably beat Houston, though.

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Looks like the Manning's are not quite finished helping the Colts! :) 

 

It's not even halftime yet:

 

Passing CP/AT YDS TD INT
E. Manning 13/18 207 2 0

 

I think Eli is out to prove something today. Bodes well for Colts fans. :D 

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1 minute ago, #12. said:

Yeah, they'll probably beat Houston, though.

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

 

We usually have about a solid quarter of football in us per game nowadays.

 

I don't see us winning anymore.

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3 minutes ago, IinD said:

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

 

We usually have about a solid quarter of football in us per game nowadays.

 

I don't see us winning anymore.

 

Agreed! I think it is getting hard for the players to buy into anything. Sure they are playing for pride, but it's not the same. They all have to know a house-cleaning is coming. It has to bother them. They're human. 

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Go Eli! "With the No.#2 in the 2018 draft the Colts trade down with ??? and get two #1s, 2#2s and 1#3s and select  Saquan B, B Chubb and an OL....>"

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1 minute ago, IinD said:

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

 

We usually have about a solid quarter of football in us per game nowadays.

 

I don't see us winning anymore.

Houston has looked as dead as we have.

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Just now, BlueShoe said:

 

I think it is getting hard for the players to buy into anything. Sure they are playing for pride, but it's not the same. They all have to know a house-cleaning is coming. it has to bother them. They're human. 

That's my thinking as well.

 

We're way past then winning on effort and pride like we were earlier in the season. 

 

They looked like they packed it in last week.

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Just now, crazycolt1 said:

Houston has looked as dead as we have.

I just think they're still better.

 

We're drafting top 3 for a reason.

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2 minutes ago, IinD said:

Not sure you've watched us, we look dead..

 

No, unfortunately I've suffered through every moment.

 

A solid half might be enough to beat Houston.  It didn't take much last time.

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I'm sure Ballard is salivating which team is going to offer a boat load of draft picks for our #2, assuming we owned the #2 which is more likely than not.  Go Ravens, Go Texans!!!

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1 minute ago, #12. said:

No, unfortunately I've suffered through every moment.

 

A solid half might be enough to beat Houston.  It didn't take much last time.

I just haven't seen anything that makes me think they'll win.

 

Plus to many guys on IR at this point.

 

I think if it's simply for pride that they'll still win. Colts players are searching for vacation packages after they get stomped next Saturday.

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19 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

At the end of the first quarter Giants lead the Eagles 13-7.

 

Just saying....

 

PHI   NYG
First Downs 6   10
Total Yards 64   151
Passing Yards 32   132
Rushing Yards 32   19
Penalties (Yds) 2(9)   3(47)
Turnovers 0   0
Punts (AVG) 0(0)   0(0)
Time of *. 5:02   9:58

 

31 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Not a problem at all. If we stay at #2 then it will be a bidding war. 

 

27 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

UPDATE:

 

Giants Just scored on an Eli Manning touchdown pass, and now lead the Eagles 13 to 7, with 1:26 to go in the first quarter.

 

The current Eagles at Giants score "tentatively" gives the Colts the #2 pick in the draft. 

We don't have the number 2.... there's a LONG way to go in that game and still 2 more games.

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1 minute ago, gacoop1 said:

I'm sure Ballard is salivating which team is going to offer a boat load of draft picks for our #2, assuming we owned the #2 which is more likely than not.  Go Ravens, Go Texans!!!

Don't count the chicks before they hatch

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2 minutes ago, IinD said:

I just think they're still better.

 

We're drafting top 3 for a reason.

We are one of the 4 teams that have beat the Texans so we cant assume anything at this point.

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3 minutes ago, csmopar said:

 

 

We don't have the number 2.... there's a LONG way to go in that game and still 2 more games.

 

With the Giants leading the Eagles 20-7, we "tentatively" have the #2 pick RIGHT NOW!

 

There is no grey in my statement. 

 

Lots of things can happen, and many things can change the final outcome, but as of this moment in time the Colts have the #2 pick. 

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