The Case for Erik Walden

[ztboiler]

I'll admit that I wrote Walden off a couple months ago, for all of the same reasons most of you have...no need to list them again.  But, I've come back around to this:  We need a proven Edge rusher or two to go with whomever we draft.  I'd rather have Ingram or Perry, but both will command elite contracts, and neither are or are ever likely to be elite players.  Both have good, but not elite traits - there is zero reason to forecast either as some kind of perrenial 15+ sack pariah.

 

People jump on the contract year logic bandwagon regarding Walden - 11 sacks in a contract year - without ever considering that 2016 was the first year of his career where he got the snap counts on passing downs that pass rushers get.  When he got those snaps, he produced.

 

Walden is going to be 32 this year but the odds are that if we continue to give him pass rush attempts, he'll produce the same 8-12 sacks that Ingram or Perry would for the next 2 years - and do it for half the price.  Furthermore...he's a really good run defender.  Finally, he's already a Colt.  Once you set aside your disappointment that Walden doesn't look like incremental progress because he was a member of the establishment....it's easy to see that he could absolutely be part of the solution for the next couple of years.

 

Contract proposal:  3 years / $23M.  $3M to sign.  Base of $5M yr. 1, $6M yr. 2, $8M yr. 3

Essentially a 2 yr. $14M deal.

[indyagent17]

Great point, I for one like Walden, he gets the job done but his pass defense is average at best

[tvturner]

The only good thing that he's at is maybe setting the edge, and getting some sacks. Not a huge fan of him, but if it was a smaller contact I'd bring him back

[SaturdayAllDay]

Even if we draft a pass rusher round 1, a majority of them dont see significant sack numbers until year 2. Last offseason i looked at first round rookies from the previous 5 seasons and the average sack rate for a first round rookie was a touch under 4. So even if we end up with a free agent like perry/ingram and a first round player like charlton/takk/williams we would still benefit by having a good player in the rotation to get pressure and set the edge. Even if he only gets half the production as last yr, 5 sacks makes a big difference on any team. 

I say lock him up for 2-3 years now, with the hope that hes a rotational guy. That way if we dont get a top pass rusher in free agency we still have him to fall back on as a starter. 

[throwing BBZ]

8 hours ago, ztboiler said:

I'll admit that I wrote Walden off a couple months ago, for all of the same reasons most of you have...no need to list them again.  But, I've come back around to this:  We need a proven Edge rusher or two to go with whomever we draft.  I'd rather have Ingram or Perry, but both will command elite contracts, and neither are or are ever likely to be elite players.  Both have good, but not elite traits - there is zero reason to forecast either as some kind of perrenial 15+ sack pariah.

 

People jump on the contract year logic bandwagon regarding Walden - 11 sacks in a contract year - without ever considering that 2016 was the first year of his career where he got the snap counts on passing downs that pass rushers get.  When he got those snaps, he produced.

 

Walden is going to be 32 this year but the odds are that if we continue to give him pass rush attempts, he'll produce the same 8-12 sacks that Ingram or Perry would for the next 2 years - and do it for half the price.  Furthermore...he's a really good run defender.  Finally, he's already a Colt.  Once you set aside your disappointment that Walden doesn't look like incremental progress because he was a member of the establishment....it's easy to see that he could absolutely be part of the solution for the next couple of years.

 

Contract proposal:  3 years / $23M.  $3M to sign.  Base of $5M yr. 1, $6M yr. 2, $8M yr. 3

Essentially a 2 yr. $14M deal.

 

 If you understood that he is Not a good run defender, had some sacks but did not have a similar high number of hits OR hurrries, would you want him back? He is near the BOTTOM of the list among ALL of this years FA as per PFF .
 Maybe they are off. But the guy graded very poorly last season. Would that be the case if he WAS a really good run defender? Got to the QB a lot?
  Homer on.
 FA will be here soon, we will see. lol

[Tmoney]

For that contract hell no. For maybe the same contract he got 4 years ago, around 4 mil/yr then okay. He'd be a rotational guy at best after a year. I'd give him 2 yr 10 mil and nothing more if he walks, he walks. We need to re build our D not worry about paying a "filler" player. 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 If you understood that he is Not a good run defender, had some sacks but did not have a similar high number of hits OR hurrries, would you want him back? He is near the BOTTOM of the list among ALL of this years FA as per PFF .
 Maybe they are off. But the guy graded very poorly last season. Would that be the case if he WAS a really good run defender? Got to the QB a lot?
  Homer on.
 FA will be here soon, we will see. lol

 

What were his PFF grades in 15 and 14?      I think we all agree he had a very poor year, his first year in '13.

 

But it's my impression that Walden graded out well in 14 and 15.

 

He graded poorly in 16,  but also had a career high in sacks with 11.     Something tells me the coaching staff asked him to focus heavily on pass rush and pay less attention to stopping the run or edge setting.     I mean if Walden wasn't getting sacks,  who was?        He may not be talented enough to do both pass rush and run stop. So if he's only doing one it feels like the priority was pass rush.

 

I'm just thinking out loud,  so I'm curious as to how Walden graded in 15 and 14?

 

Anyone?       Anyone at all?

 

[Tmoney]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

What were his PFF grades in 15 and 14?      I think we all agree he had a very poor year, his first year in '13.

 

But it's my impression that Walden graded out well in 14 and 15.

 

He graded poorly in 16,  but also had a career high in sacks with 11.     Something tells me the coaching staff asked him to focus heavily on pass rush and pay less attention to stopping the run or edge setting.     I mean if Walden wasn't getting sacks,  who was?        He may not be talented enough to do both pass rush and run stop. So if he's only doing one it feels like the priority was pass rush.

 

I'm just thinking out loud,  so I'm curious as to how Walden graded in 15 and 14?

 

Anyone?       Anyone at all?

 

A wild guess, bad. I have another ? to add. Didn't Erik Walden get cut from the Packers, then the great Ryan Grigson came in and signed him to a 4 yr 16mil contract? I mean he might have been a cap casualty for GB, but a man who was just cut gets that kind of offer? That had to be more then what GB was paying him

[ClaytonColt]

I was impressed with Walden's play last year but have we not learned our lesson about relying on elderly pass rushers on the downward slope of their career?

[SaturdayAllDay]

17 minutes ago, ClaytonColt said:

I was impressed with Walden's play last year but have we not learned our lesson about relying on elderly pass rushers on the downward slope of their career?

I dont think we have to rely on him. Sign a bigger name if we can (Ingram/Perry) and draft another Pass Rusher in round one of the draft (Williams/Takk). Even then it wouldnt hurt to have him at the right price. Injuries happen and depth is never a bad thing. Its not like we have a bunch of good backups on the roster already. Sign him for no more than 5.5M (making him like the 35th-40th best edge contract, a decent second OLB) for a year or two while the cap hit for our 1st rounder is relatively low. 

That being said I would let him hit the market first and make sure our other Free Agent spots are filled. Maybe we can lowball him a few weeks into free agency. 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Tmoney said:

A wild guess, bad. I have another ? to add. Didn't Erik Walden get cut from the Packers, then the great Ryan Grigson came in and signed him to a 4 yr 16mil contract? I mean he might have been a cap casualty for GB, but a man who was just cut gets that kind of offer? That had to be more then what GB was paying him

 

No.   Walden didn't get cut.      He was a free agent.

 

And are you seriously complaining over 4/16?      Seriously?      That's pedestrian money in the NFL.

 

I'm asking because Walden played very well for the Colts in 14 and 15.     Now this year he leads the team in sacks with 11, but his grade is low.     I'm trying to connect the dots here.

 

We got 3 good years out of 4 from Walden.      I'm sorry you're not aware of it.

 

[Tmoney]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

No.   Walden didn't get cut.      He was a free agent.

 

And are you seriously complaining over 4/16?      Seriously?      That's pedestrian money in the NFL.

 

I'm asking because Walden played very well for the Colts in 14 and 15.     Now this year he leads the team in sacks with 11, but his grade is low.     I'm trying to connect the dots here.

 

We got 3 good years out of 4 from Walden.      I'm sorry you're not aware of it.

 

Well then obviously you dont have high standards if you consider any year a good year. Hes been average at best on a below average D and you confuse that for quality play. 4 mil/yr 4 years ago was a pretty decent contract back then, especially for a player Walden's caliber. Even if he had average years in 14 and 15 he's not going to rate well in PFF he doesn't make plays.

[jskinnz]

23 hours ago, ztboiler said:

I'll admit that I wrote Walden off a couple months ago, for all of the same reasons most of you have...no need to list them again.  But, I've come back around to this:  We need a proven Edge rusher or two to go with whomever we draft.  I'd rather have Ingram or Perry, but both will command elite contracts, and neither are or are ever likely to be elite players.  Both have good, but not elite traits - there is zero reason to forecast either as some kind of perrenial 15+ sack pariah.

 

People jump on the contract year logic bandwagon regarding Walden - 11 sacks in a contract year - without ever considering that 2016 was the first year of his career where he got the snap counts on passing downs that pass rushers get.  When he got those snaps, he produced.

 

Walden is going to be 32 this year but the odds are that if we continue to give him pass rush attempts, he'll produce the same 8-12 sacks that Ingram or Perry would for the next 2 years - and do it for half the price.  Furthermore...he's a really good run defender.  Finally, he's already a Colt.  Once you set aside your disappointment that Walden doesn't look like incremental progress because he was a member of the establishment....it's easy to see that he could absolutely be part of the solution for the next couple of years.

 

Contract proposal:  3 years / $23M.  $3M to sign.  Base of $5M yr. 1, $6M yr. 2, $8M yr. 3

Essentially a 2 yr. $14M deal.

 

I think the points you made are all incredibly reasonable particularly the part of about paying Ingram or Perry as elite players but not getting that level of production.  But even still, I go the other way on this.

 

First, his age is concerning to me.  The Colts clearly need to get younger on defense and signing him does not contribute to that.  I think the same can be said for their need to get more athletic and they can do better than Walden as an athlete.  I would also be concerned about the production that came in a contract year.  

 

 

[ztboiler]

3 hours ago, Tmoney said:

Well then obviously you dont have high standards if you consider any year a good year. Hes been average at best on a below average D and you confuse that for quality play. 4 mil/yr 4 years ago was a pretty decent contract back then, especially for a player Walden's caliber. Even if he had average years in 14 and 15 he's not going to rate well in PFF he doesn't make plays.

Sometimes perception is impossible to overcome in life regardless of what you do after that perception was formed.

[jskinnz]

14 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 If you understood that he is Not a good run defender, had some sacks but did not have a similar high number of hits OR hurrries, would you want him back? He is near the BOTTOM of the list among ALL of this years FA as per PFF .
 Maybe they are off. But the guy graded very poorly last season. Would that be the case if he WAS a really good run defender? Got to the QB a lot?
  Homer on.
 FA will be here soon, we will see. lol

 

 

Here you go again presenting yourself as the smartest person in the room but the evidence has pretty consistently suggested otherwise.

 

First off, ztboiler is among the most rational posters on this board.  In other words as far away from a homer as possible.  Secondly even though I don't agree with resigning Walden, he presents a completely reasonable position in comparison of cost vs. Ingram and Perry.  

[ztboiler]

8 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

I think the points you made are all incredibly reasonable particularly the part of about paying Ingram or Perry as elite players but not getting that level of production.  But even still, I go the other way on this.

 

First, his age is concerning to me.  The Colts clearly need to get younger on defense and signing him does not contribute to that.  I think the same can be said for their need to get more athletic and they can do better than Walden as an athlete.  I would also be concerned about the production that came in a contract year.  

 

 

I can and do agree with everything you just said....it's what kept me on the sidelines with Walden for the last 2 months.

 

Then, I started "signing" a vet replacement and realized....this is ridiculous...I'm trying to find everything Walden is in a somewhat younger person and pay them twice as much....or then be left with journeyman vets who may not be as good as Walden when I can't sign Perry or Ingram.

 

Why don't I act like Walden is playing for another team....and just sign him instead...and play him like our primary pass rusher?

 

Unspoken thus far is that I would intend to use Ayers as our primary SAM.

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, Tmoney said:

Well then obviously you dont have high standards if you consider any year a good year. Hes been average at best on a below average D and you confuse that for quality play. 4 mil/yr 4 years ago was a pretty decent contract back then, especially for a player Walden's caliber. Even if he had average years in 14 and 15 he's not going to rate well in PFF he doesn't make plays.

 

Well....    considering the Colts have a track record of letting go of players they're not happy with and just eating the contract....   Cheriulus,  Landry, TRich,  plenty of others......       and we kept Walden all four years,  I'd say the team has been mostly satisfied with his play.

 

So,  I'll take my view over your view and call it a day.....

 

[throwing BBZ]

25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well....    considering the Colts have a track record of letting go of players they're not happy with and just eating the contract....   Cheriulus,  Landry, TRich,  plenty of others......       and we kept Walden all four years,  I'd say the team has been mostly satisfied with his play.

 

So,  I'll take my view over your view and call it a day.....

 

 

 That would be the team of Grigson & our Defensive Guru Chuck.
 And the answer is... a D that is losing Bigly.
  I would love to have all my players show up with Waldon`s effort every week that is for sure. He did get smoked plenty last season against the run.
 I saw a piece on him regarding his very low number of pressures for someone with 11 sacks. Not sure where.
 M Ingram is very much like Olivier Vernon. They are not big sack guys maybe 8.5. But they are off the charts with hurries, getting constant pressure on the QB. 

 So the point would be Walden`s one year wonder of sacks do not a good pass rusher make. FA is always interesting.
 

[NewColtsFan]

12 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 That would be the team of Grigson & our Defensive Guru Chuck.
 And the answer is... a D that is losing Bigly.
  I would love to have all my players show up with Waldon`s effort every week that is for sure. He did get smoked plenty last season against the run.
 I saw a piece on him regarding his very low number of pressures for someone with 11 sacks. Not sure where.
 M Ingram is very much like Olivier Vernon. They are not big sack guys maybe 8.5. But they are off the charts with hurries, getting constant pressure on the QB. 

 So the point would be Walden`s one year wonder of sacks do not a good pass rusher make. FA is always interesting.
 

 

A lots of teams are going to want Ingram.      We have a good amount of money this year,   but 8-10 teams may have more and a few of those will have a LOT more....    like 100 Million dollars-plus.

 

Only one team is going to get Ingram.    All the others are going to be disappointed.

 

We need to have alternatives.       If people here don't want Walden,  I'm not going to fight for him.   (Well, not too much.)      But there will only be so many good pass rushers and odds are there will be more teams that want them.     We'll get screwed by the Laws of Supply and Demand.

 

We may wind up with Walden simply because we could get outspent by other teams.....

 

I hope that's not the case,   I'm just saying I won't be surprised if that happens....

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

I would like to see Walden back, he was one of the few bright points on our Defense last season. Our Defense is weak and he led the team in Sacks.

[throwing BBZ]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

A lots of teams are going to want Ingram.      We have a good amount of money this year,   but 8-10 teams may have more and a few of those will have a LOT more....    like 100 Million dollars-plus.

 

Only one team is going to get Ingram.    All the others are going to be disappointed.

 

We need to have alternatives.       If people here don't want Walden,  I'm not going to fight for him.   (Well, not too much.)      But there will only be so many good pass rushers and odds are there will be more teams that want them.     We'll get screwed by the Laws of Supply and Demand.

 

We may wind up with Walden simply because we could get outspent by other teams.....

 

I hope that's not the case,   I'm just saying I won't be surprised if that happens....

 

 

 The FA options are few for a pass rusher. And obviously they have to want to come here. lol
 Found a piece on one year wonder Nick Perry.
 https://thegamedayreport.com/2017/01/17/nick-perrys-breakout-season-will-pay-dividends-this-off-season/

[NewColtsFan]

47 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 The FA options are few for a pass rusher. And obviously they have to want to come here. lol
 Found a piece on one year wonder Nick Perry.
 https://thegamedayreport.com/2017/01/17/nick-perrys-breakout-season-will-pay-dividends-this-off-season/

 

I think the Perry projection is for 5/45-50.        9 to 10 million per.      And he's the more reasonably priced guy!

 

I'd love to be the fly on Ballard's wall and find out where his interests are?      Who and how much?

 

 

[RockThatBlue]

On 2/18/2017 at 0:15 PM, indyagent17 said:

Great point, I for one like Walden, he gets the job done but his pass defense is average at best

Pass defense isn't really his job, but hes pretty solid at everything else. He should be brought back IMO.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think the Perry projection is for 5/45-50.        9 to 10 million per.      And he's the more reasonably priced guy!

 

I'd love to be the fly on Ballard's wall and find out where his interests are?      Who and how much?

 

 

 

 yip.
17 straight days of watching tape with everyone from 8am to 6pm and an hour for lunch.  If they let me in i promise i would keep it to myself!
 Or would i come here and really be the "smartest man in the room".
  I was over on a Chargers fan site and a guy posted something like.
   I reserve the right to be 2 faced.
    It is way to early.
   And it is Liar`s season.  

    I`m looking forward to oh, about March 1st.
    Lot`s of cuts, and lots of misdirection.
  

  I came away with the view they consider Ingram as pretty good all around.
 Not a Great pass rusher, they do like the idea of him and Bosa together.
  They are waiting on Attachou to stay healthy and finally produce.
 Keeping Ingram for about $13M seems popular there.
  
 

[Tmoney]

6 hours ago, ztboiler said:

Sometimes perception is impossible to overcome in life regardless of what you do after that perception was formed.

Sometimes 32 year olds have 1 good season and all of a sudden he's been "one our most consistent players for the last 4 years". 

[Tmoney]

4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Well....    considering the Colts have a track record of letting go of players they're not happy with and just eating the contract....   Cheriulus,  Landry, TRich,  plenty of others......       and we kept Walden all four years,  I'd say the team has been mostly satisfied with his play.

 

So,  I'll take my view over your view and call it a day.....

 

Well like you said he's on a pedestrian contract. I wasn't asking for his head demanding he be cut, but now that his contract is up and were re building this D why waste resources on the guy? Clearly his "high level" of play doesn't seem to effect our overall D. His individual play speaks for itself and to put the cherry on top your boy is 32. 

[ztboiler]

12 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

Sometimes 32 year olds have 1 good season and all of a sudden he's been "one our most consistent players for the last 4 years". 

He has...actually.  He's been a solid edge setter on the strong side for a defense that had nobody who could do it before he arrived in 2013.  Not a difference maker, you don't find many 3-4 SAMs that are, but has played his role well.

 

This year, he was left on the field in pass rushing situations....because we had no other options, and he produced.  It's easy to say he has 1 good year in a contract year, but that would be thinking with the level of in depth analysis akin to the local Indy media.  In fact, his role and opportunities to make a difference were expanded this year.

 

I already said that I wouldn't bring him back initially...but go try to find a player as productive for a reasonable cost.  In the real world, it isn't likely.

[Tmoney]

4 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

He has...actually.  He's been a solid edge setter on the strong side for a defense that had nobody who could do it before he arrived in 2013.  Not a difference maker, you don't find many 3-4 SAMs that are, but has played his role well.

 

This year, he was left on the field in pass rushing situations....because we had no other options, and he produced.  It's easy to say he has 1 good year in a contract year, but that would be thinking with the level of in depth analysis akin to the local Indy media.  In fact, his role and opportunities to make a difference were expanded this year.

 

I already said that I wouldn't bring him back initially...but go try to find a player as productive for a reasonable cost.  In the real world, it isn't likely.

I disagree. Erik Walden is weak at the POA, can get washed by TEs, and doesnt set an edge very well at all. He does things at an average NFL level, he does nothing at a high level. Plenty of teams have difference makers at Sam OLB....Ingram, Perry, Houston, extc. No they're not easy to find, but settling for a 32 year old and not even trying to upgrade is not the answer. I dont blame any local media they got over there in Indy for calling him that. Call it like you see it. The fact that he was our best edge rush last year is pretty disturbing, and if we go into next season the same way  we'll have a total under 20 sacks again. I hate that excuse of what else are we ganna do? Who else could play better? How does any other team upgrade any position, through draft and FA. Its time, the re build has started and if Erik doesn't take a compromisable contract let him walk. No more then 5 mil/yr

[ztboiler]

18 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

I disagree. Erik Walden is weak at the POA, can get washed by TEs, and doesnt set an edge very well at all. He does things at an average NFL level, he does nothing at a high level. Plenty of teams have difference makers at Sam OLB....Ingram, Perry, Houston, extc. No they're not easy to find, but settling for a 32 year old and not even trying to upgrade is not the answer. I dont blame any local media they got over there in Indy for calling him that. Call it like you see it. The fact that he was our best edge rush last year is pretty disturbing, and if we go into next season the same way  we'll have a total under 20 sacks again. I hate that excuse of what else are we ganna do? Who else could play better? How does any other team upgrade any position, through draft and FA. Its time, the re build has started and if Erik doesn't take a compromisable contract let him walk. No more then 5 mil/yr

There is so much to unwind here in your post...Let's start with the things that you said which are true:

• - He is our best Edge rusher
• - You don't seem to like him.
• - I can live with that.

That's about all we have to work with.

 

 

 

 

[TheRustonRifle#7]

Walden out played his contract despite the denials of those with an axe to grind,  despite that, I would not want to pay what the market value for him will be.

[SaturdayAllDay]

29 minutes ago, Tmoney said:

I disagree. Erik Walden is weak at the POA, can get washed by TEs, and doesnt set an edge very well at all. He does things at an average NFL level, he does nothing at a high level. Plenty of teams have difference makers at Sam OLB....Ingram, Perry, Houston, extc. No they're not easy to find, but settling for a 32 year old and not even trying to upgrade is not the answer. I dont blame any local media they got over there in Indy for calling him that. Call it like you see it. The fact that he was our best edge rush last year is pretty disturbing, and if we go into next season the same way  we'll have a total under 20 sacks again. I hate that excuse of what else are we ganna do? Who else could play better? How does any other team upgrade any position, through draft and FA. Its time, the re build has started and if Erik doesn't take a compromisable contract let him walk. No more then 5 mil/yr

 

In what universe is 33 sacks under 20??

 

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Tmoney said:

Well like you said he's on a pedestrian contract. I wasn't asking for his head demanding he be cut, but now that his contract is up and were re building this D why waste resources on the guy? Clearly his "high level" of play doesn't seem to effect our overall D. His individual play speaks for itself and to put the cherry on top your boy is 32. 

 

Well....     he's not my boy,  but the only reason I mentioned him is my fear that the Colts could very well end up being out-bid for the better OLB's.        I'd rather come away with Walden on a reasonable contract that come away with no one.

 

But my preference is to sign someone else.     I've posted several times in various threads that I was ready to throw 5/75 at Ingram in the hope that would be enough.      Then I found out he might get something like 5/85-90. 

That's a different ballpark.

 

But if we can get someone like Perry for something closer to 5/45-50 then I'd be fine with that too.

 

[chad72]

If we had insane depth like the Broncos had with Shane Ray, Shaq Barrett backing up Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, I could minimize his reps as a starter and maximize his efficiency, ala DeMarcus Ware (not saying Walden is Ware but saying that his efficiency will be maximized with fewer snaps given his age).

 

Hence the dilemma becomes, if I pay him such starter money, am I expecting him to maintain a high efficiency while playing a high volume of reps? With our team's lack of depth at that position, I do expect him to play high amount of reps with such money given but do not expect him to play at that high level at the age of 32+ with that volume of snaps, just my honest opinion. Hence, if I am going for someone that I will pay that much for a high volume of snaps, I will put the money on a younger horse. That is a reasonable thing to say, IMO.

 

I also doubt Walden takes anything but starter money to play less reps for us to maximize his efficiency. 

 

 

[funktacious2]

It'seems great that he had double digit sacks, but he graded out pretty poorly elsewhere. Not worth bringing back just for the 11 sacks IMO because he was a tad bit of a liability on the field for what he'said making. And the age thing.