What is your method for studying NFL draft picks?

[Yoshinator]

I thought I'd start a new topic that could benefit everyone looking to have discussions about the NFL draft, whether it be experts who post yearly information about the draft, or beginners who are casual college fans who don't know ways to spot talent. Lets discuss our personal methods on how we learn who are the better picks for us and how we make our decisions on will succeed in the NFL from the college level.

 

1.) First off, I will do a bunch of Mock drafts on first-pick.com. I will memorize the order of the top 7 rounds, do 100 drafts or so, and see the grade they give me so I can get a clear view of where each player is rated at the time. Once I do this, I will make a list of players, at positions of need (mostly defense this year), and start studying them.

 

2.) The first way I study them is look at their draft profile. I will check out their strengths, weaknesses, and overall position that they are estimated to be drafted at. Once I do this, if I feel this player is a possible candidate to be picked for us, I will watch tape, see if their strengths stand out and if I agree with the analysis, and if their weaknesses are smaller or bigger than what is said. If I feel that player is a pick that can succeed in the NFL, then he will go on my list of wants. 

 

3.) There are also intangibles like scheme fits, character issues, and other things that could affect the player. So if that checks out as well, then I will be willing to select him as a member of the Colts.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

I watch game tape of them(full games not highlights) 

Read their draft profile, go follow them on every single social media site and see what kind of kid he is

Look at the players around him and see if he benefits from them or he's the beneficiary.

[SP_21]

I watch a lot of College football so before draft season I already know quite a few of the players I like. 

 

Then I'll go on draftbreakdown.com and watch game film. 

 

If a draft analyst or poster on here mentions a guy that intrigues me I'll go back and study them too. 

 

Honestly this time of year is my favorite as a football fan. I love the excitement and optimism of building a team. 

[Yoshinator]

12 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

I watch a lot of College football so before draft season I already know quite a few of the players I like. 

 

Then I'll go on draftbreakdown.com and watch game film. 

 

If a draft analyst or poster on here mentions a guy that intrigues me I'll go back and study them too. 

 

Honestly this time of year is my favorite as a football fan. I love the excitement and optimism of building a team. 

Definitely a good site to remember. I'll be checking it out as well. Absolutely fun imagining who will be on the team in April and picking your dream draft. Lots of risers and fallers at the combine. Hope we win that coin flip to get the 14th pick as well!

[chad72]

I focus on film against the better competition. The cream always rises.

 

If they make a few plays against the better FBS schools than lighting it up against D-II or D-III schools, that means more to me because coaching and talent are all better with the better FBS schools, IMO.

 

 

[twfish]

Definitely use draftbreakdown.com so much so that I would probably pay a yearly subscription to use it if that was the only way to get it. I usually steer clear of any highlight tapes period. I also kinda stay away from draft profiles (outside of height weight and possible 40 times) but I determine there strengths and weaknesses in my own. I try to watch every single play of every game from the season that just ended I almost never watch film from the year prior unless there's an injury. I try to watch every player coming in at key positions (RB, ILB, Edge rusher, CB) I try to start with the bigger names and then work my way down.

[SP_21]

22 minutes ago, twfish said:

Definitely use draftbreakdown.com so much so that I would probably pay a yearly subscription to use it if that was the only way to get it. I usually steer clear of any highlight tapes period. I also kinda stay away from draft profiles (outside of height weight and possible 40 times) but I determine there strengths and weaknesses in my own. I try to watch every single play of every game from the season that just ended I almost never watch film from the year prior unless there's an injury. I try to watch every player coming in at key positions (RB, ILB, Edge rusher, CB) I try to start with the bigger names and then work my way down.

I think you have to watch film from the previous season. Guys can have a bad season for any number or reasons. Jaylen Reeves Maybin and Anthony Walker JR come to mind. 

 

But generally I do try to watch the newest game tape. 

[twfish]

3 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

I think you have to watch film from the previous season. Guys can have a bad season for any number or reasons. Jaylen Reeves Maybin and Anthony Walker JR come to mind. 

 

But generally I do try to watch the newest game tape. 

I should have added bad year to the injury part. When that's the case I'll go back as far as possible to see if they only had 1 bad year or its a recurring thing

[jshipp23]

6 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

I think you have to watch film from the previous season. Guys can have a bad season for any number or reasons. Jaylen Reeves Maybin and Anthony Walker JR come to mind. 

 

But generally I do try to watch the newest game tape. 

Peppers as well...For the people saying he has no cover skills they should watch 2015 where he wasn't playing lb most of the time..

[SVFD Colts Fan]

You guys all have to much time on your hands. That is why I come here and read your analysis.

[BProland85]

It's a combination of things for me. I watch highlights and also read up on scouting reports. I also do mock drafts to see generally what area players are thought to be drafted. That typically gives me a decent gauge on players I'm looking at for the Colts. When reading about and watching film, I'm also paying attention to see if that player fits the system especially at DL and LB. 

[Defjamz26]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

I focus on film against the better competition. The cream always rises.

 

If they make a few plays against the better FBS schools than lighting it up against D-II or D-III schools, that means more to me because coaching and talent are all better with the better FBS schools, IMO.

 

 

This.

 

I don't wanna sound like a know it all but I remember seeing Jack Conklin put Deforest Buckner on his *** and realizing immediately that'd he'd be a top OT in the league. I had him in a few of my mocks last year. He demolished a lot of top pass rushers.

[NewColtsFan]

12 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I thought I'd start a new topic that could benefit everyone looking to have discussions about the NFL draft, whether it be experts who post yearly information about the draft, or beginners who are casual college fans who don't know ways to spot talent. Lets discuss our personal methods on how we learn who are the better picks for us and how we make our decisions on will succeed in the NFL from the college level.

 

1.) First off, I will do a bunch of Mock drafts on first-pick.com. I will memorize the order of the top 7 rounds, do 100 drafts or so, and see the grade they give me so I can get a clear view of where each player is rated at the time. Once I do this, I will make a list of players, at positions of need (mostly defense this year), and start studying them.

 

2.) The first way I study them is look at their draft profile. I will check out their strengths, weaknesses, and overall position that they are estimated to be drafted at. Once I do this, if I feel this player is a possible candidate to be picked for us, I will watch tape, see if their strengths stand out and if I agree with the analysis, and if their weaknesses are smaller or bigger than what is said. If I feel that player is a pick that can succeed in the NFL, then he will go on my list of wants. 

 

3.) There are also intangibles like scheme fits, character issues, and other things that could affect the player. So if that checks out as well, then I will be willing to select him as a member of the Colts.

 

Where I think you're hurting yourself is with #1.   First-pick.com    

All of these simulated draft websites are fun and addictive.     But they are historically unreliable.   They have guys going in the wrong round by a wide margin.     Past roughly the first 50 players,  they wouldn't know me from you.     Seriously.      There are more tech guys then people who know the draft.     They don't.    They never have.

 

Every year I preach to enjoy them,  but not to take them seriously.  

 

They also don't know how to value trades properly.      The moment that you finish up a mock draft and say, "Look,  I made a whole bunch of trades and now the Colts have three 2's and two 3's and three 4's,  then you know you're in fantasy land.      That doesn't happen in real life.     Ever.

 

Your number 2 and 3 are fine.   No problem with either of them.     But your number one is a grenade that just blew up.     The fact that you put any trust in them at all if the grenade.    It just went boom!

 

Enjoy the site.     Have fun.     Just don't take it seriously.      It's not close to reality.

 

[twfish]

8 hours ago, chad72 said:

I focus on film against the better competition. The cream always rises.

 

If they make a few plays against the better FBS schools than lighting it up against D-II or D-III schools, that means more to me because coaching and talent are all better with the better FBS schools, IMO.

 

 

Yes this. I also try to watch players playing against the same opponent. Like Nick chubb vs north Carolina  and dalvin cook vs north Carolina 

[chad72]

13 hours ago, twfish said:

Yes this. I also try to watch players playing against the same opponent. Like Nick chubb vs north Carolina  and dalvin cook vs north Carolina 

 

That is when I realized Dawuane Smoot would not cut it as well as I hoped he would. I watched his film vs Michigan, he rarely got past that right tackle of Michigan and did not make impact plays in that game, IMO. It left me with a "meh" feeling about him.

[Surge89]

1. Get a consensus on top 10 of each position via multiple sites. 

 

2. Watch highlights first to see what the athlete does well. Then watch whatever full games I can find.

 

3. Grade scale each of the top 10. 

 

4. Weight grades by needs for Indy

 

5. Start watching other players that caught my eye while watching top 10.  Usually end up with top 20ish for each position. 

 

6. Grade them accordingly

[IndyD4U]

I like to read everyone's analysis and then claim to have done the research myself.

[OffensivelyPC]

Take a look at the colts needs, read scouting reports to narrow down some of the guys I like and then watch what film on them is available.  

[Superman]

On 1/17/2017 at 10:11 AM, SP_21 said:

I think you have to watch film from the previous season. Guys can have a bad season for any number or reasons. Jaylen Reeves Maybin and Anthony Walker JR come to mind. 

 

But generally I do try to watch the newest game tape. 

 

Watching the previous year's film can help you determine what kind of potential for growth/improvement a player has. If you see a big difference in his play from last year to this year, that's a positive sign. If it looks like he got worse, that's a negative sign. 

 

If I really want to get a handle on a player, I watch everything I reasonably can. I just keep in mind what was last year, what was this year, etc., and adjust accordingly.

[Superman]

On 1/17/2017 at 9:43 AM, twfish said:

I also kinda stay away from draft profiles (outside of height weight and possible 40 times) but I determine there strengths and weaknesses in my own

 

Yup. There's a lot of "groupthink" on draft picks, IMO. Arik Armstead comes to mind, no reason for him to have been a first rounder, IMO. 

 

I try not to base my opinion on what everyone else thinks, if I'm going to watch a player and give my scouting notes or whatever. 

[DougDew]

Read analysis and then watch film.  I'm not a technician, so I can't spot things that a better trained person might.

 

I watch tape to look for athleticism and balance.  Balance and lateral movement is a big deal for most positions, IMO.  

[GoColts00]

height, weight, speed, scheme fit, cfbstats.com (overall stats + game stats), as much video as i can find ( i try to find stuff that isn't just highlight reels and will watch teammates highlights just to see how the person I'm looking at played), look at their twitter page to see what kind of character they have.

 

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, GoColts00 said:

height, weight, speed, scheme fit, cfbstats.com (overall stats + game stats), as much video as i can find ( i try to find stuff that isn't just highlight reels and will watch teammates highlights just to see how the person I'm looking at played), look at their twitter page to see what kind of character they have.

 

The bolded is very interesting. Something I hadn't thought of. Good tip!