Why Is Manning’S Replacement Such A Problem?

[ruksak]

He didn't make any. ;)

ohhhh, I see what ya did there.

[GoColts8818]

He had an 80.4 career QB rating, over 20 thousand yards and threw more TD's than INT's. Not to mention he put on a heck of a show in Minnesota and threatened 'The Greatest Show On Turf,' in the playoffs. I'm sure many would agree that would be successful QB career.

Did he meet expectations? Certainly not, but his production in his post-Colts career was above average.

And you certainly can't blame him for the Colts 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997 seasons. The year the Colts went 1-15 to get Manning, George threw for about 4000 yards and roughly 30 TDs and 10 INTs.

]

Which again makes him a bust. Like I said had he been a third round draft pick or something he would have been said to have a good career. He didn't. He went first overall and as you just said never lived up to those expectations.

Also the Colts have gone 1-15 one time since they moved here and it wasn't the year they got Manning. It was 1991 and guess who the QB was Jeff George. Look at his numbers from that year, he sure helped them go 1-15. That was when he was having trouble beating out Jack Trudeau for the starting job here.

Like I said you are pointing to Jeff George's career year. That one year does not reflect the rest of his career. He had a great season no question. With that said, one season does not make a career. Jeff George was a bust just any way you cut it when you factor in he was the top overall pick. Had he been a third round pick or something his career would have been judged differently but he wasn't.

[JWF]

Hey everybody. First post on the new forum but was a member from the old old forums.

Not trying to Hijack but I figured but this is a good post to throw in my 2 cents...

I know people love Manning (he's my favorite player too and it will be a sad day indeed when he's not on the field for the Colts) but the best interest of the team's longterm success should trump even him.

Alot of people have said it, the league is QB driven even more so than it always been. The easiest way to ensure long term success in the NFL is by having a top flight QB. Obviously there is no garuntee with Luck but there never is a garuntee with any player at any position.id rather take a chance at getting the next HOF QB than a HOF OL or CB...especially considering were facing the prospect of not having a worthy QB at all sooner rather than later.

I just think there are too many things that need to be fixed with this team even if Manning is healthy to be a SB contender anytime soon anyways. It would take an absolute home run offseason to turn this thing around. You have to remember this team is more than likely going in an entirely new direction from a philosophy standpoint. I bet alot of veterans on this team wont factor in. That means alot more holes to fill than just the glaring ones at the moment.

Do Manning right and trade him either this season or next to a contender of his choice and hit the restart button. Most team's life after HOF qbs and alot of success is bad. This team is forunate to have a chance* to avoid that.

[JoKeR]

Is this Leaf vs Manning all over again? Decisions decisions.

I don't think so. I think both will probably pan out but with Luck having the better career. As far a RG3 goes, were gonna see some exciting football from him and a very good career to. He will probably miss alot more games in his career than Luck from all the running he does but nothing that will overshadow his talent. I have a feeling he will he and Cam Newton will race for the QB rushing records (season, and career)and both will surpass Vick in that refused because their superior passing(over Vicky) will open up more opportunities to tuck and run.

[BOTT]

Hey everybody. First post on the new forum but was a member from the old old forums.

Not trying to Hijack but I figured but this is a good post to throw in my 2 cents...

I know people love Manning (he's my favorite player too and it will be a sad day indeed when he's not on the field for the Colts) but the best interest of the team's longterm success should trump even him.

Alot of people have said it, the league is QB driven even more so than it always been. The easiest way to ensure long term success in the NFL is by having a top flight QB. Obviously there is no garuntee with Luck but there never is a garuntee with any player at any position.id rather take a chance at getting the next HOF QB than a HOF OL or CB...especially considering were facing the prospect of not having a worthy QB at all sooner rather than later.

I just think there are too many things that need to be fixed with this team even if Manning is healthy to be a SB contender anytime soon anyways. It would take an absolute home run offseason to turn this thing around. You have to remember this team is more than likely going in an entirely new direction from a philosophy standpoint. I bet alot of veterans on this team wont factor in. That means alot more holes to fill than just the glaring ones at the moment.

Do Manning right and trade him either this season or next to a contender of his choice and hit the restart button. Most team's life after HOF qbs and alot of success is bad. This team is forunate to have a chance* to avoid that.

colts can't really trade him. it's either keep him or release him

[JWF]

colts can't really trade him. it's either keep him or release him

Yes they can. Its just that it would cost Irsay alot of money to have him on the roster. Im pretty sure as long as Manning isnt done from a health standpoint the Colts will pay the money to have options regardless.

[That Guy]

colts can't really trade him. it's either keep him or release him

They can trade him for other players. The cap cost of Manning would be offset by the cap we don't have to spend on the new players.

[BOTT]

Yes they can. Its just that it would cost Irsay alot of money to have him on the roster. Im pretty sure as long as Manning isnt done from a health standpoint the Colts will pay the money to have options regardless.

ok, realistically they can't trade him....

[Tony Sullivan]

]

Which again makes him a bust. Like I said had he been a third round draft pick or something he would have been said to have a good career. He didn't. He went first overall and as you just said never lived up to those expectations.

Also the Colts have gone 1-15 one time since they moved here and it wasn't the year they got Manning. It was 1991 and guess who the QB was Jeff George. Look at his numbers from that year, he sure helped them go 1-15. That was when he was having trouble beating out Jack Trudeau for the starting job here.

Like I said you are pointing to Jeff George's career year. That one year does not reflect the rest of his career. He had a great season no question. With that said, one season does not make a career. Jeff George was a bust just any way you cut it when you factor in he was the top overall pick. Had he been a third round pick or something his career would have been judged differently but he wasn't.

When did I ever say he wasn't a bust, or disagree with him being a bust? You keep jumping to that when I never even brought it up. I've only criticized your incorrect assertions that he was a terrible QB and responsible for us getting Manning 5 years after he left the team.

Did you ever stop to think that it was maybe more the Colts' fault for their failures than Jeff George? I mean, after he left the Colts his QB rating shot up about 20 points, had over twice as many TD's in his first 2 seasons away from the Colts than the 4 seasons he was with them, and a playoff appearance.

Jeff had much more than one season as well. You don't rake up 150 TDs and 30 000 passing yards due to one season. The 4 seasons outside of Indy where he played at least 10 games he was a top-10 QB. But it seems like you are more concerned with what he did for the Colts not what he did over a career. Jeff George as a Colt, terrible. Jeff George outside the Colts, pretty darn good.

Also blaming George for our woes is a deflection of responsibility and a cop out.

[FireJimCaldwell]

They can trade him for other players. The cap cost of Manning would be offset by the cap we don't have to spend on the new players.

It doesn't work that way.

[BOTT]

They can trade him for other players. The cap cost of Manning would be offset by the cap we don't have to spend on the new players.

trust me. listened to espn radio all day....all the nfl guys said trading him is all but impossible. can't quite remember the details, but they can't..

[ruksak]

I don't think so. I think both will probably pan out but with Luck having the better career. As far a RG3 goes, were gonna see some exciting football from him and a very good career to. He will probably miss alot more games in his career than Luck from all the running he does but nothing that will overshadow his talent. I have a feeling he will he and Cam Newton will race for the QB rushing records (season, and career)and both will surpass Vick in that refused because their superior passing(over Vicky) will open up more opportunities to tuck and run.

I was a Cam hater going into the 2011 season. Because I dislike the running QB, I feel it betrays their senses as a QB. Cam looks to be the one that may finally be that great running QB we've all been waiting for.

However, traditionally I believe it is best to avoid them. Cam may well be the exception to the rule.

[GoColts8818]

When did I ever say he wasn't a bust, or disagree with him being a bust? You keep jumping to that when I never even brought it up. I've only criticized your incorrect assertions that he was a terrible QB and responsible for us getting Manning 5 years after he left the team.

Did you ever stop to think that it was maybe more the Colts' fault for their failures than Jeff George? I mean, after he left the Colts his QB rating shot up about 20 points, had over twice as many TD's in his first 2 seasons away from the Colts than the 4 seasons he was with them, and a playoff appearance.

Jeff had much more than one season as well. You don't rake up 150 TDs and 30 000 passing yards due to one season. The 4 seasons outside of Indy where he played at least 10 games he was a top-10 QB. But it seems like you are more concerned with what he did for the Colts not what he did over a career. Jeff George as a Colt, terrible. Jeff George outside the Colts, pretty darn good.

Also blaming George for our woes is a deflection of responsibility and a cop out.

In order for it to be a deflection of resonsiblity some how means I am resonable for our woes back then which I wasn't. I was just one of those poor saps who had to watch Jeff George's career here and it was awful here. I've said he had plunty of help but he never came close to being what we thought we had when we drafted him which made him a bust. Yes he went on to hae a couple of nice years after he left here but those years are not enough to justifty him being a top overall draft pick.

You are pretty much arguing to argue and I am done with it. Had Jeff George panned out the way the Colts had hoped when they drafted him they would have never been in poistion to draft Peyton Manning because they would have been winning. They weren't thanks in large part because they had taken Jeff George in the draft and he was a bust. Was he the only problem? No but he was one of the biggest. If you view history differently fine, you aren't going to find many who agree with you.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yes they can. Its just that it would cost Irsay alot of money to have him on the roster. Im pretty sure as long as Manning isnt done from a health standpoint the Colts will pay the money to have options regardless.

They can trade him for other players. The cap cost of Manning would be offset by the cap we don't have to spend on the new players.

Here is a summary from another thread... It has some context from the previous thread, but it beats typing it all out again.

If Manning is paid the option bonus:

• He is likely a Colt for the bare minimum of two years
  
  • Because trading him after 2012, would create a 28 million cap hit paired with Luck's approximately 5 million cap hit, and the 500k that a young Back up making the minimum would likely earn. which would tie up approximately 28% of the salary cap in the QB position
    
  • Trading him after 2013 would create a 19 million cap hit, paired with Luck's approximate 6 million hit and a young QB would tie up approxmately 21% of the salary cap in the QB position. There is a chance that the salary cap would see a fairly big increase in the 2014 season which could lower the % tied to the QB position based on the new TV deals.
    
  • After 2014, trading Manning, his dead cap space would be 9.6 million, Luck would have around a 7 million cap hit, and a low dollar young QB would have them at around 14% of the cap
    

With that said, if he receives the option bonus, he's a Colt for the very least 2 more years, and more than likely 3 years.

Now that turns to the 28 million gamble:

• We cut ties to Manning, move on with a combination of Luck, Orlovsky, QB3, or Luck, a true vet Back up, and QB3.
  
• Unless he's 95%+ healthy I do not see the option bonus being paid, because if he's forced to retire, the figures in the previous section are coming back into play and that will cause salary cap issues. BIG ISSUES.
  

Actual dollars

• Look at the players we currently have needing deals. Wayne, Mathis, Garcon, Saturday, Diem, Gonzalez, etc.
  
  • Wayne will likely want more $ than he's truly worth
    
  • Mathis & Garcon will likely demand a pretty hefty bonus
    
  • Saturday & Diem & Wayne would likely be signing their final contracts.
    

All of this takes real money.

Considering that in 2011 we paid out 31+ million to Manning & the quarterbacks alone.

Consider that in 2012, if we pay Manning his option bonus, draft & sign Luck, + their base salaries that will be an additional 51 million to just the quarterback position

So in 2 years we would have paid out 82 million to quarterbacks, and 26 million of that didn't see the field in 2011, and 15 million of that likely won't play much in 2012.

That's an awful lot of money and with the needs of this team, it's hard to say that is an efficient use of actual dollars.

If we do not pay the bonus, he's a free agent and we have 10.6 against the salary cap(savings of 6.4 from his cap hit of 17 million if he was playing.)

[JWF]

ok, realistically they can't trade him....

Ill say this trading him in the offseason is pretty unrealistic. But trading him either during the season or afterwards, while less likely, is not unrealistic. If the team around him is clearly not up to par and if they struggle next season (with Luck on the roster) you better believe they'll consider trading him and going full rebuild. Its probably the only way they can sell him leaving the franchise for another team.

Considering he's expected to atleast be able to play football again (who knows at what level), cutting him is completely unrealistic. Unless Manning asks for it Irsay would be eaten alive from a PR standpoint for cutting him while he could still play.

The colts will pay him the 28 million regardless of what they are planning for the longterm.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Ill say this trading him in the offseason is pretty unrealistic. But trading him either during the season or afterwards, while less likely, is not unrealistic. If the team around him is clearly not up to par and if they struggle next season (with Luck on the roster) you better believe they'll consider trading him and going full rebuild. Its probably the only way they can sell him leaving the franchise for another team.

Considering he's expected to atleast be able to play football again (who knows at what level), cutting him is completely unrealistic. Unless Manning asks for it Irsay would be eaten alive from a PR standpoint for cutting him while he could still play.

The colts will pay him the 28 million regardless of what they are planning for the longterm.

If he's paid the 28 million he isn't going to be traded for at least 3 years.

He will be released long before he is traded.

[MAC]

Ill say this trading him in the offseason is pretty unrealistic. But trading him either during the season or afterwards, while less likely, is not unrealistic. If the team around him is clearly not up to par and if they struggle next season (with Luck on the roster) you better believe they'll consider trading him and going full rebuild. Its probably the only way they can sell him leaving the franchise for another team.

Considering he's expected to atleast be able to play football again (who knows at what level), cutting him is completely unrealistic. Unless Manning asks for it Irsay would be eaten alive from a PR standpoint for cutting him while he could still play.

The colts will pay him the 28 million regardless of what they are planning for the longterm.

And you don't think that Irsay would be eaten alive for trading him AFTER he has demonstrated that he can still play? And why would they want to?

[JWF]

Here is a summary from another thread... It has some context from the previous thread, but it beats typing it all out again.

If Manning is paid the option bonus:

• He is likely a Colt for the bare minimum of two years
  
  • Because trading him after 2012, would create a 28 million cap hit paired with Luck's approximately 5 million cap hit, and the 500k that a young Back up making the minimum would likely earn. which would tie up approximately 28% of the salary cap in the QB position
    
  • Trading him after 2013 would create a 19 million cap hit, paired with Luck's approximate 6 million hit and a young QB would tie up approxmately 21% of the salary cap in the QB position. There is a chance that the salary cap would see a fairly big increase in the 2014 season which could lower the % tied to the QB position based on the new TV deals.
    
  • After 2014, trading Manning, his dead cap space would be 9.6 million, Luck would have around a 7 million cap hit, and a low dollar young QB would have them at around 14% of the cap
    
  • 
    

True but I would think the team will be made up of mostly cheaper younger players going forward. If they go into full rebuild mode they should be able to work their way around it from a cap standpoint.

I think trading him in a season or two is the right move. Maybe im wrong.

[FireJimCaldwell]

True but I would think the team will be made up of mostly cheaper younger players going forward. If they go into full rebuild mode they should be able to work their way around it from a cap standpoint.

I think trading him in a season or two is the right move. Maybe im wrong.

It's not that it might not be the right move at that point it will still be nearly impossible due to the salary cap.

[JWF]

And you don't think that Irsay would be eaten alive for trading him AFTER he has demonstrated that he can still play? And why would they want to?

He's going to get grilled no matter what if he decides to go with Luck period. Luck isnt sitting for 3-4 years behind him. If they take Luck Manning most likely wont be on this team in 2-3 years.

I dont see Manning retiring if he can play unless he wins atleast 1 more SB. Sorry but I dont see this team doing that in that time frame.

[Smitto]

There's also a reason why Luck is getting the hype and Keenum is not. Its not like they flipped a coin and Luck was the winner. GM's and scout have been watching every single snap all these QB's have taken throughout the entire career and they have determined that Luck is without doubt the best prospect out there.

We're gonna see who thinks what when the draft comes, bill parcels was never into all the hype about luck and i agree, luck is not special... he's an nfl ready QB just like the two other guys next to him and one is more athletic stronger arm.... i highly doubt the GMs have determined anything... here you are trying to tell me not to state any opinion as fact and your doing the same thing... come the combine and senior bowl RGIII is gonna make a name for himself.

[Smitto]

which is why i wouldn't take rg3...the guy has a slight build

RGIII isnt that small by any means, look at drew brees and mark sanchez.. vick is smaller than he is... and im sure if he wanted to he could gain some more weight

[Smitto]

This much bigger thing is important though. One of the biggest concerns I've seen about RGIII is concerns if he is big enough to take the hits that come with being a running QB in the NFL or if he'll get beat up.

Yea looking at the way vick was getting hit it seemed grusome, but i think if RGIII was to come to the colts i believe he'd be much more of a pocket passer than he is now for the simple fact that he's learning behind manning.. which would be a dream.

[Smitto]

Should I know his dad?

Its common sense if your gonna name your son or daughter after you, you put the 2nd or 3rd or whatever.. you dont have to know anyone.... much easer than saying Robert Griffin the 3rd

[ruksak]

Its common sense if your gonna name your son or daughter after you, you put the 2nd or 3rd or whatever.. you dont have to know anyone.... much easer than saying Robert Griffin the 3rd

lol...Smitto, c'mon man. I know what the "III" means for christs sake. I'm sayin....call him Griffin. Unless there's more than one highly touted QB named Robert griffin, I would say the "III" is fodder for ESPN The Magazine.

I was pointing out how silly it is that they have to throw in his surname because it makes a cool nick. Point being, I don't give a chiz if he has a dad with the same name. The moniker "RG3" is catchy but stupid. I wish you fellas would stop biting the medias teet and parroting their stupid blather.

[Freenyfan102]

They think PM is Jesus Christ of football and when he dies he would rise up from the grave and continue to guide the colts to greatness...............................................That is what i hear.

[Coltssouth]

They think PM is Jesus Christ of football and when he dies he would rise up from the grave and continue to guide the colts to greatness...............................................That is what i hear.

There are two names I think of when it comes to great qb's right now. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

There are others that are getting better and could be contenders, but as of right now I don't see anyone out there at the level these two play at.

He is not my JC but his is darned good at what he does. I don't think anyone can argue with that.

[Freenyfan102]

There are two names I think of when it comes to great qb's right now. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.

There are others that are getting better and could be contenders, but as of right now I don't see anyone out there at the level these two play at.

He is not my JC but his is darned good at what he does. I don't think anyone can argue with that.

You do know that was all sarcasm right????????????????????

[Coltssouth]

You do know that was all sarcasm right????????????????????

Nope. Sry . . . that's what I get for not reading the whole thread before replying. Just read this page.

Open mouth . . . insert foot.

Again.

[Freenyfan102]

Nope. Sry . . . that's what I get for not reading the whole thread before replying. Just read this page.

Open mouth . . . insert foot.

Again.

Well tell me how the toe jam taste i might need some for my dad sandwhich for apirl fools

[wallieump99]

Folks, the cap hit is NOT 10.6 million if released. When we release manning, the remaining signing bonus accelerates into the current year. $16 million is the cap hit if we RELEASE him.

[Coltssouth]

Nope. I would honestly recommend something else instead. :

Of course I wear fuzzy socks so I'm not going to be hungry for a while.

[John Dee]

I don’t get it, why all the controversy? We started a few years back asking the question about finding Manning’s replacement…well we now have the opportunity to grab it. I don’t understand all this talk of release Peyton, get picks for him or Luck. Why isn’t this just a talk about how we got a replacement for down the road? Would we still have all the debates if we were talking about something other than the #1 overall? Why is it such an issue to go with Peyton for the next 2 years with Luck as backup and revaluate again then?

You have no idea how powerful the EGO can be....

On the young and old... This is a situation Irsay would love to "have" , but he best "avoid"...

Peyton is in charge here.

[John Dee]

In order for it to be a deflection of resonsiblity some how means I am resonable for our woes back then which I wasn't. I was just one of those poor saps who had to watch Jeff George's career here and it was awful here. I've said he had plunty of help but he never came close to being what we thought we had when we drafted him which made him a bust. Yes he went on to hae a couple of nice years after he left here but those years are not enough to justifty him being a top overall draft pick.

You are pretty much arguing to argue and I am done with it. Had Jeff George panned out the way the Colts had hoped when they drafted him they would have never been in poistion to draft Peyton Manning because they would have been winning. They weren't thanks in large part because they had taken Jeff George in the draft and he was a bust. Was he the only problem? No but he was one of the biggest. If you view history differently fine, you aren't going to find many who agree with you.

Yes, JG was a bust.. and most depressing.... I really think George had the total package.... and along with it came the Godzilla EGO.

[MAC]

.

Nope. Sry . . . that's what I get for not reading the whole thread before replying. Just read this page.

Open mouth . . . insert foot.

Again.

No worries, I didn't read it that way either. An emoticon or two would have helped.

[storm1580]

My problem is, Manning is proven, Luck is not. I don't like how people want to

Throw manning out like yesterdays news. Yeah this kid has potential to be good, but people should realize, their is no guarantee when it comes to rookie qb's. If Manning is healthy, I just can't see replacing him.

[braveheartcolt]

What I want, what I know, and what I think about all this is pretty irrelevant. It's what the key protaganists do about it next March & April that counts. Everything else is just waffle, and is now getting rather mundane don't you think?

I know, it's a forum, what else are we supposed to talk about......

Welcome back JWF, btw.....

[That Guy]

Here is a summary from another thread... It has some context from the previous thread, but it beats typing it all out again.

If Manning is paid the option bonus:

• He is likely a Colt for the bare minimum of two years
  
  • Because trading him after 2012, would create a 28 million cap hit paired with Luck's approximately 5 million cap hit, and the 500k that a young Back up making the minimum would likely earn. which would tie up approximately 28% of the salary cap in the QB position
    
  • Trading him after 2013 would create a 19 million cap hit, paired with Luck's approximate 6 million hit and a young QB would tie up approxmately 21% of the salary cap in the QB position. There is a chance that the salary cap would see a fairly big increase in the 2014 season which could lower the % tied to the QB position based on the new TV deals.
    
  • After 2014, trading Manning, his dead cap space would be 9.6 million, Luck would have around a 7 million cap hit, and a low dollar young QB would have them at around 14% of the cap
    

With that said, if he receives the option bonus, he's a Colt for the very least 2 more years, and more than likely 3 years.

Now that turns to the 28 million gamble:

• We cut ties to Manning, move on with a combination of Luck, Orlovsky, QB3, or Luck, a true vet Back up, and QB3.
  
• Unless he's 95%+ healthy I do not see the option bonus being paid, because if he's forced to retire, the figures in the previous section are coming back into play and that will cause salary cap issues. BIG ISSUES.
  

Actual dollars

• Look at the players we currently have needing deals. Wayne, Mathis, Garcon, Saturday, Diem, Gonzalez, etc.
  
  • Wayne will likely want more $ than he's truly worth
    
  • Mathis & Garcon will likely demand a pretty hefty bonus
    
  • Saturday & Diem & Wayne would likely be signing their final contracts.
    

All of this takes real money.

Considering that in 2011 we paid out 31+ million to Manning & the quarterbacks alone.

Consider that in 2012, if we pay Manning his option bonus, draft & sign Luck, + their base salaries that will be an additional 51 million to just the quarterback position

So in 2 years we would have paid out 82 million to quarterbacks, and 26 million of that didn't see the field in 2011, and 15 million of that likely won't play much in 2012.

That's an awful lot of money and with the needs of this team, it's hard to say that is an efficient use of actual dollars.

If we do not pay the bonus, he's a free agent and we have 10.6 against the salary cap(savings of 6.4 from his cap hit of 17 million if he was playing.)

I read this when you posted it earlier. What I don't understand is if we trade for players, who takes the cap hit for the players we are RECEIVING?

I understand that WE will take the cap hit for Manning, but I don't understand why we would, somehow, be obligated the cap hit for all players in the trade, while the other team doesn't have anything counting against their cap.

It seems to me that the money we owe Manning may be a sunk cost. We're paying it no matter what.

If we take the 28 million cap hit but get players for no cap hit, it could still be worth it. Please explain to me how it works.

Thanks!

[Susie Q]

They think PM is Jesus Christ of football and when he dies he would rise up from the grave and continue to guide the colts to greatness...............................................That is what i hear.

Sorry I agreeded with coltssouth because I didn't read it as sarcasm in the post. Maybe it wasn't to direct and maybe an emoticon would have helped. They do come in handy that's why their available. :thmsup:

[JoKeR]

I was a Cam hater going into the 2011 season. Because I dislike the running QB, I feel it betrays their senses as a QB. Cam looks to be the one that may finally be that great running QB we've all been waiting for.

However, traditionally I believe it is best to avoid them. Cam may well be the exception to the rule.

They are not my first choice either. They give up on the pass too early.