McShay/Kiper Mock Draft

[NewColtsFan]

DE on the site is where the majority of edge rushers are listed. 

 

 

He usually is. Not in this case. 

 

 

Grigson spent a 1st round pick on Bjoern Werner, so I have no doubt that Grigson would love to get Ray.

 

 

Mel Kiper literally hypes dude's up if he's friends with their agents, and you expect me to care about his draft grades? 

 

You have four responses,  one more ridiculous than the last....

 

For example,  who cares that he's listed as a DE on a profile....  if the Colts drafted him it would be as an OLB.     And you know it.    And the profiles say so....     and you know it...

 

They don't call this the silly season for nothing...

 

As for the Kiper claim, you have zero proof of.....    feel free to offer proof.    You think there's a website around that wouldn't love for this to be true (other than ESPN)     Where is the evidence.....?

[Dustin]

You have four responses, one more ridiculous than the last....

For example, who cares that he's listed as a DE on a profile.... if the Colts drafted him it would be as an OLB. And you know it. And the profiles say so.... and you know

Obviously, but he'd be an edge rusher. Every edge rusher is listed as a DE on the site that shows his size percentile. Whether he plays DE or OLB makes no difference. He's a small edge rusher.

[Dustin]

You have four responses, one more ridiculous than the last....

For example, who cares that he's listed as a DE on a profile.... if the Colts drafted him it would be as an OLB. And you know it. And the profiles say so.... and you know it...

They don't call this the silly season for nothing...

As for the Kiper claim, you have zero proof of..... feel free to offer proof. You think there's a website around that wouldn't love for this to be true (other than ESPN) Where is the evidence.....?

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/12/espn-looking-into-mel-kipers-relationship-with-gary-wichard/

[#BringBobBack]

i don't like it at all feel like these clowns do less research than some here on the forum

[Dustin]

According to the profiles I've posted and you're clearly not reading, the tape tells a very, very different story.

You choose not to accept it.

Unlike you, I don't need other people to make my opinions for me.

[Dustin]

i don't like it at all feel like these clowns do less research than some here on the forum

These guys do a mock draft and write 4 lines of text filled with buzzterms and suddenly they're the authority on players.

I could find any random draft article on SB Nation with more analysis on 1 player than any actual analysis Kiper has put out in any givne off-season.

[HtownColt]

I just don't see it with shane ray

[C0lts088]

With Claiborne they whiffed on the player, not the position. He stinks even if he was drafted in round 4. I think Martin is an LT on another team. I'll give you Frederick as being good, but I don't think I'd ever call a C an impact player and he could've been gotten later if the Boys weren't going all in on protecting Romo.

The team would not have made the playoffs with just a great OL. They already had the great WR, great QB, and good RB. I think they got lucky on defense last year and need real talent. They may overdraft defensive players this year.

I think the mock draft tends to show that speed and edge players tend to rise and push out the other players out of the first round. I'm wondering if the DTs are really that good to have so many in round 1, or are benefitting from a weak QB class.

I personally believe an impact player can be found at any position, not necessarily just someone with speed. Although I will agree speed can't be taught so it is of importance. im not sure if your referring as impact player as a player that will come in and have an immediate impact because if so, that's never a sure thing with any prospect. Speed won't tell you if they'll immediately have an impact. Any player in any given position can have an immediate impact. It's just up to the Gm's to do there HW and decide which players those are.

I personally believe Fredrick had an immediate impact as did all 3 of the Cowboys linemen; another one of the top of my head is Decastro for the steelers, If I remember correctly he made a big difference and after his injury it created a big hole in the steelers O line

[NewColtsFan]

Obviously, but he'd be an edge rusher. Every edge rusher is listed as a DE on the site that shows his size percentile. Whether he plays DE or OLB makes no difference. He's a small edge rusher.

 

He's the same size as Robert Mathis.

 

He's the same size as Jonathan Newsome.

 

I don't see size problem here.....

[NewColtsFan]

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/10/12/espn-looking-into-mel-kipers-relationship-with-gary-wichard/

 

Seriously?    

 

From 5 years ago?      Did you happen to notice that nothing happened?

 

Oh, yeah....    that.      Nothing happened.     Hmmm.....

[NewColtsFan]

Unlike you, I don't need other people to make my opinions for me.

 

Yeah....    especially when their opinions make yours look foolish.....

 

I understand why you'd be reluctant to embrace that.......

[BleedBlu8792]

He's the same size as Robert Mathis.

 

He's the same size as Jonathan Newsome.

 

I don't see size problem here.....

 

Eh no, Mathis is easily the smallest (height-wise). I'd be surprised if Mathis is 6' with cleats on. What his profile says he's at is wrong as I've been side by side with him a few times and I'm a little over 6'3. Mathis is on a WHOLE different level in terms of leverage/balance than Newsome and Ray are, especially when it comes to getting underneath the OT. Ray and Newsome looks to be a good comparison though.

 

 

You have to take espn/nfl/cbs player profiles with a grain of salt due to the majority of them being over-inflated. I'll give you an example from back in 06' when Cato June was playing for the Colts. During the playoff run he was being interviewed and the guy interviewing him asked him if he was really 230lbs - which was what he was listed at on his profile - and I remember Cato laughing, saying no and the he told the guy interviewing him he was actually around 210. Now I kind of figured he wasn't 230, but when he said "around 210" I was somewhat surprised at the difference in actual weight and internet weight. Now I believe a large portion of profiles are "close", but there are those few that you just shake your head at and laugh.

[NewColtsFan]

Eh no, Mathis is easily the smallest (height-wise). I'd be surprised if Mathis is 6' with cleats on. What his profile says he's at is wrong as I've been side by side with him a few times and I'm a little over 6'3. Mathis is on a WHOLE different level in terms of leverage/balance than Newsome and Ray are, especially when it comes to getting underneath the OT. Ray and Newsome looks to be a good comparison though.

 

 

You have to take espn/nfl/cbs player profiles with a grain of salt due to the majority of them being over-inflated. I'll give you an example from back in 06' when Cato June was playing for the Colts. During the playoff run he was being interviewed and the guy interviewing him asked him if he was really 230lbs - which was what he was listed at on his profile - and I remember Cato laughing, saying no and the he told the guy interviewing him he was actually around 210. Now I kind of figured he wasn't 230, but when he said "around 210" I was somewhat surprised at the difference in actual weight and internet weight. Now I believe a large portion of profiles are "close", but there are those few that you just shake your head at and laugh.

 

I appreciate the info....

 

I'm not sure how much of the exchange you may have followed between Dustin and I....?

 

Dustin was saying Ray is too small for OLB.     I was saying he's the same size as Mathis and Newsome.

 

If you're telling me that Mathis is small than his listed size -- fine.    But that's more to my point.    Ray is big enough....

[akcolt]

No, because the areas he did bad in are the areas he's bad in on tape. Short area quickness, lateral agility, and explosion.

He's also undersized.

4.52 short shuttle is slow I posted a link to a stat showing no player running a short shuttle slower than 4.42 since like 2001 has been more than JAG getting after the QB.

I agree with your assessment add the foot injury no thanks

[BleedBlu8792]

I appreciate the info....

 

I'm not sure how much of the exchange you may have followed between Dustin and I....?

 

Dustin was saying Ray is too small for OLB.     I was saying he's the same size as Mathis and Newsome.

 

If you're telling me that Mathis is small than his listed size -- fine.    But that's more to my point.    Ray is big enough....

 

Mathis being shorter I think helps him more-so than Ray and Newsome. Weight-wise, I think Ray is fine, but I'm not sure he's much more than a situational pass rusher like Newsome is, and we know where Newsome went in the draft last year. Mathis' explosion off the line and leverage/bend ability to get underneath OT's is what seperates him from Newsome, Ray, and the majority of other NFL DE/OLB's. I don't think either are going to be able to develop that technique which Mathis has pretty much perfected.

 

I, myself, don't believe Ray is a top-20 pick - where he's mostly being projected - or even a first round pick. I'm not jumping at either side of your's and Dustin's debate, but in my opinion Beasely and Fowler are marginally ahead of the rest of the edge rushing OLB's. Beasely has that explosiveness, with elite strength, that I think makes him the best of the OLB's. However, I would be very greatful if all other 27 teams passed on Beasely and allowed us the opportunity to pick him

[DougDew]

I personally believe an impact player can be found at any position, not necessarily just someone with speed. Although I will agree speed can't be taught so it is of importance. im not sure if your referring as impact player as a player that will come in and have an immediate impact because if so, that's never a sure thing with any prospect. Speed won't tell you if they'll immediately have an impact. Any player in any given position can have an immediate impact. It's just up to the Gm's to do there HW and decide which players those are.

I personally believe Fredrick had an immediate impact as did all 3 of the Cowboys linemen; another one of the top of my head is Decastro for the steelers, If I remember correctly he made a big difference and after his injury it created a big hole in the steelers O line

I've been tossing around the terms impact player and playmaker and probably failing to totally make my point. 

 

I mean a player who can make a big impact play on his own, not necessarily as the result of good teamwork.  Any WR can score a TD if the playcalling (coaching, QB audible) puts him in the correct spot at the correct time, or the QB delivers a perfect pass.  But guys like Calvin Johnson or Randy Moss can more than a few times make a big play when the rest of the teamwork doesn't execute great.  Dez Bryant is that kind of player too.

 

Usually, edge players are those kinds of players...a QB sack by an OLB or DE, a CB interception or pass defended on 3rd down, a WR catch, a LT consistently preventing a sack.  A Dallas Clark/Gronk TE down the seam.  Possibly a RB.  QB goes without saying.

 

 I just don't see where a C, ILB, S,G have consistent opportunities to make such plays.  Sure, a great player at any of those positions can make a difference, and those guys go in the first round too, but for the most part, the 1st round guys are the ones that play certain positions, and the other positions fall accordingly. 

 

Kipers mock reflects this, IMO, although this is supposedly a good year for DTs, so you see a few more in the first than in probably most years.  But if it was an average QB year, or a year that didn't follow a year where Cleveland got burned by reaching for Manziel, my guess some of those guys would fall into round 2.

[wig]

Yeah.... especially when their opinions make yours look foolish.....

I understand why you'd be reluctant to embrace that.......

Can you put numbers to that, or are you just going to blindly follow them without any tangible proof they're the best?

You're a sheep, which is fine if you admit it to yourself.

[Gavin]

Obviously, but he'd be an edge rusher. Every edge rusher is listed as a DE on the site that shows his size percentile. Whether he plays DE or OLB makes no difference. He's a small edge rusher.

He is not a small edge rusher, He is just not big enough to play DE(supposedly...But I'd suspect that's not true either), Jerry Hughes is 6'2" 254 and played DE in college and Ray is as agile as he is..The difference being 9 lbs, Hughes even had shorter arms http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jerry-hughes?id=496796

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/shane-ray?id=2552451

[BleedBlu8792]

He is not a small edge rusher, He is just not big enough to play DE(supposedly...But I'd suspect that's not true either), Jerry Hughes is 6'2" 254 and played DE in college and Ray is as agile as he is..The difference being 9 lbs, Hughes even had shorter arms http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jerry-hughes?id=496796

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/shane-ray?id=2552451

I think you may want to go back and look at the difference in 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle (agility tests). Hughes at ~10lbs heavier was substantially better

[Gavin]

I think you may want to go back and look at the difference in 3-cone and 20 yard shuttle (agility tests). Hughes at ~10lbs heavier was substantially better

I saw, I don't put nearly as much into those tests as some do, Those players are in shorts and shirts

[BleedBlu8792]

I saw, I don't put nearly as much into those tests as some do, Those players are in shorts and shirts

His position is predicated on agility and strength. Two areas he's tested average to not very good at. He's got ok speed but if he can't maneuver around an OT, when an OT has his speed negated, he's done for. I thought you of all people would see his agility tests as a major deficiency especially at his size.

[Manning1887]

It would be tough to pass on Ray. 

 

As crazy as this draft sounds, these guys talk with GMs and team scouts. Perhaps they are privy to some information the rest of us are not. 

[Bluefire4]

I don't care how anybody feels about him, it would be hard to pass on Landon Collins. I'd rather draft him and fill a position of need rather than draft a pass rusher who haven't translated to the NFL well in the last two years.

[Gavin]

His position is predicated on agility and strength. Two areas he's tested average to not very good at. He's got ok speed but if he can't maneuver around an OT, when an OT has his speed negated, he's done for. I thought you of all people would see his agility tests as a major deficiency especially at his size.

He clearly has no problem getting around a Tackle and when he develops his pass rush rep I expect he will be a stud if he stays healthy, He has to gain some strength as well

[Dustin]

4.52 short shuttle is slow I posted a link to a stat showing no player running a short shuttle slower than 4.42 since like 2001 has been more than JAG getting after the QB.

I agree with your assessment add the foot injury no thanks

Yup. His 3 cone is so bad I wouldn't even believe you if you told me he ran that.

[krunk]

I think waaaaaay too much emphasis is being placed on drills.   There's plenty of NFL prospects who were lights out in drills and pure busts in the NFL.  The drill does not tell you what the player is going to do to improve his game once he gets in the league.

I haven't watched a whole lot of tape on Ray, but I love the relentlessness I've seen.  Some players do it with power, and some players do it with finesse.  What is there to say about some of the guys that tested better than Werner on those drills last year, but some how some way Werner ended up with more sacks and pressures than them?

[IndyD4U]

 

Hate the Colts pick. 

 

Landon Collins doesn't go in the first.

 

Vic Beasley doesn't go in the first. 

 

That's the worst board I've seen

[Superman]

How not to draft: 

 

61. Indianapolis Colts
McShay's pick: Donovan Smith, OT, Penn State

Offensive linemen have flown off the board in this mock draft, so I had to reach for Smith a little bit here. But I really needed to get a tackle who can help protect Andrew Luck long term.

 

63. Seattle Seahawks
McShay's pick: Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Bennett is the No. 39 prospect on my board, so this is a value pick as much as anything else. He's a disruptive player from the 3-technique position.

 

Not only is DL a more critical need for the Colts, but he obviously thinks Bennett is a better prospect. But he'd reach for the OL out of a sense of need... That makes no sense.

[ztboiler]

How not to draft: 

 

61. Indianapolis Colts

McShay's pick: Donovan Smith, OT, Penn State

Offensive linemen have flown off the board in this mock draft, so I had to reach for Smith a little bit here. But I really needed to get a tackle who can help protect Andrew Luck long term.

 

63. Seattle Seahawks

McShay's pick: Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Bennett is the No. 39 prospect on my board, so this is a value pick as much as anything else. He's a disruptive player from the 3-technique position.

 

Not only is DL a more critical need for the Colts, but he obviously thinks Bennett is a better prospect. But he'd reach for the OL out of a sense of need... That makes no sense.

It was pretty obvious in watching McShay/Kiper that they were struggling to reconcile perceived need and perceived value...thus they out thought themselves a bit last night.  They both knew that there was no way that Beasley and Landon Collins fall out of the first and they couldn't believe that they let it happen.....but it was out there, so they had to justify it a bit.  They are respected experts for a reason, but they put a bad product out there last night and they knew it.

[Superman]

It was pretty obvious in watching McShay/Kiper that they were struggling to reconcile perceived need and perceived value...thus they out thought themselves a bit last night.  They both knew that there was no way that Beasley and Landon Collins fall out of the first and they couldn't believe that they let it happen.....but it was out there, so they had to justify it a bit.  They are respected experts for a reason, but they put a bad product out there last night and they knew it.

 

I didn't watch it (thankfully). But if that's the case, why not make Collins the Colts pick at #29? It would make perfect sense from a value and need perspective.

[ztboiler]

I didn't watch it (thankfully). But if that's the case, why not make Collins the Colts pick at #29? It would make perfect sense from a value and need perspective.

True. But from a BPA perspective Shane Ray is a better pick - the pick isn't the problem, just ridiculous that he'd be there.

[Superman]

True. But from a BPA perspective Shane Ray is a better pick - the pick isn't the problem, just ridiculous that he'd be there.

 

Which brings it full circle, IMO. You make the value/BPA pick at #29, but then completely abandon that approach at #61?

 

To me, the problems are Ereck Flowers, Byron Jones, DJ Humphries, Cameron Erving, Devin Smith and Eric Rowe being first rounders. I can kind of see Ray dropping to #29, but I doubt that any of those guys go ahead of Collins and Beasley.

[ztboiler]

Which brings it full circle, IMO. You make the value/BPA pick at #29, but then completely abandon that approach at #61?

 

To me, the problems are Ereck Flowers, Byron Jones, DJ Humphries, Cameron Erving, Devin Smith and Eric Rowe being first rounders. I can kind of see Ray dropping to #29, but I doubt that any of those guys go ahead of Collins and Beasley.

True.  Inconsistency is required to right faulty logic....just peruse our forum and it's plentiful.

 

Guys are going to sneak into the bottom of the first, and the ESPN guys are well documented as carrying Beasley with a second round grade against the grain, so that much is consistent with the board they have put out there, but they generally used need more than value to justify their picks.

[DougDew]

How not to draft: 

 

61. Indianapolis Colts

McShay's pick: Donovan Smith, OT, Penn State

Offensive linemen have flown off the board in this mock draft, so I had to reach for Smith a little bit here. But I really needed to get a tackle who can help protect Andrew Luck long term.

 

63. Seattle Seahawks

McShay's pick: Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State

Bennett is the No. 39 prospect on my board, so this is a value pick as much as anything else. He's a disruptive player from the 3-technique position.

 

Not only is DL a more critical need for the Colts, but he obviously thinks Bennett is a better prospect. But he'd reach for the OL out of a sense of need... That makes no sense.

But if Smith is actually a good player who will start now and long term, what's wrong with taking him at 61 even if he isn't BPA?

 

I think drafts and BPA lists are very different things.  Say that the list shows he is in the 80's because there are 15 WRs, OLBs, and DTs ahead of him.  Since the Colts are not interested in devoting more cap or roster space to WRs, OLBs,or DTs he gets drafted higher than the BPA list would dictate.  IMO, if Smith is actually a T that can start next year and for the long term, what does it matter that there are 15 WRs, OLBs, and DTs that push him down the BPA list?

 

Unless McShay is simply saying that Smith is 3rd 4th round talent and isn't starting material but the Colts draft him here because hope he is and they want a T.....then that is a reach, IMO.

 

I don't think you select a 43 DT at 61 because he is the BPA.  If the Colts need a starting T more than they need a rotational DT, the proper move is to trade down, as long as you think that T can start and be a solid player long term and you can get a rotational DT later.

 

If the Colts need a RT (and that's debatable in itself), then where do you get the starter if you don't draft him at 61? 

 

I think the problem with McShay's example is that he thinks the Colts need a RT more than a quick DT, which is what is driving the Smith pick over Bennett.

[Gavin]

But if Smith is actually a good player who will start now and long term, what's wrong with taking him at 61 even if he isn't BPA?

 

I think drafts and BPA lists are very different things.  Say that the list shows he is in the 80's because there are 15 WRs, OLBs, and DTs ahead of him.  Since the Colts are not interested in devoting more cap or roster space to WRs, OLBs,or DTs he gets drafted higher than the BPA list would dictate.  IMO, if Smith is actually a T that can start next year and for the long term, what does it matter that there are 15 WRs, OLBs, and DTs that push him down the BPA list?

 

Unless McShay is simply saying that Smith is 3rd 4th round talent and isn't starting material but the Colts draft him here because hope he is and they want a T.....then that is a reach, IMO.

 

I don't think you select a 43 DT at 61 because he is the BPA.  If the Colts need a starting T more than they need a rotational DT, the proper move is to trade down, as long as you think that T can start and be a solid player long term and you can get a rotational DT later.

 

If the Colts need a RT (and that's debatable in itself), then where do you get the starter if you don't draft him at 61? 

 

I think the problem with McShay's example is that he thinks the Colts need a RT more than a quick DT, which is what is driving the Smith pick over Bennett.

I think he should go BPA available on his board and figure out roster composition after that, Trade if you have to

[That Guy]

I see that they had us getting Shane Ray in the first and Donovan Smith in the second, but who did they have us nabbing in the third?  Wasn't this a three-round mock?

[NewColtsFan]

Can you put numbers to that, or are you just going to blindly follow them without any tangible proof they're the best?

You're a sheep, which is fine if you admit it to yourself.

 

Boy,  somebody is a glutton for punishment!    You got schooled the last time, but you're back for more!   Why am I not surprised.

 

Last year in this exercise,  I got 75% of the first round right.  24-32. 

Of the 8 I missed on,  7 went in the 2nd round,  most high in the 2nd round.   1 went in the third. 

 

Not too bad for a sheep.

 

The people I follow have either actually worked in the NFL in paying jobs or could if they desired.   How many names do you want me to list?

 

Charlie Casserly   Former GM

Gil Brandt            Former GM

Mike Mayock       Former NFL player

Daniel Jeremiah   Former NFL Scout

Charles Davis      Former NFL Scout

Bucky Brooks     Former NFL Scout

 

Mel Kiper           Worked for ESPN for roughly the last 30+ years.   His works matches the GM's and Scouts.

Todd McShay    Played college ball, as did the two men he works with at Scouts Inc.   He's been doing this for more than 10 years.

 

And the guys at CBS Sports are also former players and scouts.

 

If following EXPERTS makes me a sheep,  then all I can say is..........      Baaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!

 

I mean,  how dumb does one have to be to try and make fun of someone who follows the opinion of EXPERTS?!

 

But,  I don't think you're dumb.   But you are argumentative and a spectacular hypocrite.

 

For months you've be-littled and mocked those of us who follow this stuff saying none of the experts know what they're talking about.

 

But the moment you agreed on something (the Randall evaluation) you jumped up and down and pointed to it as proof.   You even referred to "momentum" he now had.    When I asked for examples,  you, of course, offered none.   Dustin offered one for you.  But nothing from you.     So,  you're quick to use the views of those you dislike when it suits your needs,  but otherwise,  you dismiss it.      How very convenient for you.     

 

Like I said,  just a big argumentative hypocrite.

[1959Colts]

Bill Polian sees Shane Ray as the next Robert Mathis

[DougDew]

I think he should go BPA available on his board and figure out roster composition after that, Trade if you have to

That's the problem with mocks...they don't allow trades when reality says it happens alot.  So he is stuck explaining something that is pretty unrealistic. 

 

I think part of what McShay is saying is that the Colts have such a need at T that they don't have the luxury of taking the 39 BP at 61 and must draft a starter there even though he is the 75th best player.  I think he is wrong about that.   

[wig]

Boy, somebody is a glutton for punishment! You got schooled the last time, but you're back for more! Why am I not surprised.

Last year in this exercise, I got 75% of the first round right. 24-32.

Of the 8 I missed on, 7 went in the 2nd round, most high in the 2nd round. 1 went in the third.

Not too bad for a sheep.

The people I follow have either actually worked in the NFL in paying jobs or could if they desired. How many names do you want me to list?

Charlie Casserly Former GM

Gil Brandt Former GM

Mike Mayock Former NFL player

Daniel Jeremiah Former NFL Scout

Charles Davis Former NFL Scout

Bucky Brooks Former NFL Scout

Mel Kiper Worked for ESPN for roughly the last 30+ years. His works matches the GM's and Scouts.

Todd McShay Played college ball, as did the two men he works with at Scouts Inc. He's been doing this for more than 10 years.

And the guys at CBS Sports are also former players and scouts.

If following EXPERTS makes me a sheep, then all I can say is.......... Baaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!

I mean, how dumb does one have to be to try and make fun of someone who follows the opinion of EXPERTS?!

But, I don't think you're dumb. But you are argumentative and a spectacular hypocrite.

For months you've be-littled and mocked those of us who follow this stuff saying none of the experts know what they're talking about.

But the moment you agreed on something (the Randall evaluation) you jumped up and down and pointed to it as proof. You even referred to "momentum" he now had. When I asked for examples, you, of course, offered none. Dustin offered one for you. But nothing from you. So, you're quick to use the views of those you dislike when it suits your needs, but otherwise, you dismiss it. How very convenient for you.

Like I said, just a big argumentative hypocrite.

Thanks for your resume.

Nobody cares that you don't watch film and regurgitate what other people write. The issue starts when you condescend someone who formed their own opinion, which you enjoy doing.