Bad news, Offense: 2013 vs 2012

[alexpr]

I was just checking some stats and I think we are regressing:

 

Points per game:

 

2012: 22.3 (Tied for 18 in the league)

 

2013: 24.1 (16 in the league)

 

Third down conversion:

 

2012: 98 out of 229  43%  (7 in the league)

 

2013: 65 out of 179  36%  (21 in the league)

 

Fourth down conversion:

 

2012: 7 out of 8  88%  (1 in the league)

 

2013: 1 out of 8  12%  (32 in the league)

 

First downs per game:

 

2012: 22.5 (4 in the league)

 

2013: 19.7 (18 in the league)

 

Yards per game:

 

2012: 362.4 (10 in the league)

 

2013: 337.3 (22 in the league)

 

Yards per play:

 

2012: 5.2 (23 in the league)

 

2013: 5.4 (15 in the league)

 

ToP per game:

 

2012: 30:46 (13 in the league)

 

2013: 28:47 (28 in the league)

 

Penalties:

 

2012: 94 (8 in the league)

 

2013: 61 (Tied for 3 in the league) 2 games still remaining

 

 

I know that we increased points per game and that's the most important stat, but the increase was minimum compared to how much we decreased in other stats. Going from #1 ranked fourth down offense to 32 is just.... wow. Injuries have affected a lot but last years offense was much better.

 

 

 

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

I'll take the points any day. 

 

But yeah it also has to do with losing Reggie. I'd like to see the 3rd down, 4th down, overall 1st downs, and yards per game before reggie got hurt. I'd have to imagine it was similar to last season because we were playing well then. 

[IUfan_Charlie]

2 words: Bruce Arians

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

We lost Wayne, Allen, and Ballard...that might account for a lot of the difference.

[CR91]

Im sure the numbers were parallel before reg got hurt

[Warhorse]

Injuries on the oline will cause great challenges. 

[BOTT]

2 words: Bruce Arians

One word: injuries

[Gavin]

Total yards was extremely close between 2012 and 2013  prior to Reggie going down.....Dont remember exactly how close....Maybe 1.2 or 2.4 apart in favor of last year....Not much of a drop off at all prior to Wayne going down

[IndyScribe]

Injuries.

[Superman]

 

Third down conversion:

 

2012: 98 out of 229  43%  (7 in the league)

 

2013: 65 out of 179  36%  (21 in the league)

 

 

 

This is the one that bothers me the most. Even though I didn't like Arians' way, being a veteran play caller no doubt helped him tremendously on third down. Pep being a rookie play caller shows up big time on third down.

[Gavin]

This is the one that bothers me the most.

I tend to look at the number of attempts 1st, cant have the conversions if you dont have attempts

[Superman]

I tend to look at the number of attempts 1st, cant have the conversions if you dont have attempts

 

You won't have as many attempts if you're not converting and extending drives. And of course, it's a percentage, so that's kind of irrelevant anyways.

[alexpr]

This is the one that bothers me the most. Even though I didn't like Arians' way, being a veteran play caller no doubt helped him tremendously on third down. Pep being a rookie play caller shows up big time on third down.

Also I remember we were extremely good converting third and long (8 or 7+ yards), we were like the number 1 or 2 ranked in the league

[CVDGxRAZE]

we had a lot of injuries on offense........and pep sux

[sfergson727]

One word: injuries

I didn't know BA was injured?!?

 

(kidding)

 

Every team has injuries.  This team was inconsistent before Reggie went down.  Look back at OAK and MIA games, we barely beat one, and lost to the other.  The performances in those games were not to far off from what happened A. R. (after reggie)

 

It's Pep's fault, but maybe he is seeing the light if last week is any indicator.

[OLD FAN MAN]

imo  the only stat that counts is points for and against at the end of each game. by this stat we are not regressing.

[dw49]

1) Insistence on building a power running game (or Pep vs BA) without the proper pieces in place.

 

2) Reggie goes down and DHB melts under the pressure to step up. As a result of this , no running game and bad protection , Luck gets way out of rhythm.

 

3) Little tougher schedule. 

[BOTT]

I didn't know BA was injured?!?

 

(kidding)

 

Every team has injuries.  This team was inconsistent before Reggie went down.  Look back at OAK and MIA games, we barely beat one, and lost to the other.  The performances in those games were not to far off from what happened A. R. (after reggie)

 

It's Pep's fault, but maybe he is seeing the light if last week is any indicator.

Before Reggie went down I think most team offensive stats were better or similar to last season. People act like the offense was smooth and consistent last season....when it was often below par. Imagine last years offense minus Reggie and DA...wouldn't have been pretty.

[Gavin]

1) Insistence on building a power running game (or Pep vs BA) without the proper pieces in place.

 

2) Reggie goes down and DHB melts under the pressure to step up. As a result of this , no running game and bad protection , Luck gets way out of rhythm.

 

3) Little tougher schedule. 

1.Thats what Pagano wants

[dw49]

1.Thats what Pagano wants

 

 

Also what Pep ran at Stanford. All well and good but the fact is we didn't have offensive linemen to move defenders off the ball and at least in some games they wasted some early possessions trying to implement it.

[Caleb3502]

One word: injuries

Two Words: Darrius Heyward-Bey

 

It's two words because Heyward-Bey is one word.

[lollygagger8]

I couldn't care less about last year statistics. 

 

All will be right with the football world if we can continue to score in the first half. 

[#12]

Third down conversion:

 

2012: 98 out of 229  43%  (7 in the league)

 

2013: 65 out of 179  36%  (21 in the league)

 

 

The Richardson and power-running game effect.  It's too difficult to sustain drives. 

 

I don't really see the point in debating Arians/Pep.  For most of the season it's been pretty much the same passing philosophy, plus Pep's heavey personnel/fullback in the running game.  IMO they just compounded one flawed approach by adding another. 

 

The play calling/approach Sunday was much better.  Let's hope that continues 

[Jason_]

I didn't know BA was injured?!?

 

(kidding)

 

Every team has injuries.  This team was inconsistent before Reggie went down.  Look back at OAK and MIA games, we barely beat one, and lost to the other.  The performances in those games were not to far off from what happened A. R. (after reggie)

 

It's Pep's fault, but maybe he is seeing the light if last week is any indicator.

 

Let's be fair...those were also Pep's first 2 games ever calling plays in the NFL.  And his playcalling hasn't been nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.  More often than not imo it has been lack of execution primarily in terms of OL blocking and WR's not getting open.

[luckyblue]

Injuries have really decimated our offense, but poor play by Richardson dhb and our O-line, along with really bad play calling by Hamilton have really done us in.

[Kenny]

When you loose a HOF receiver on pace for another 1k+ season, 2 rbs, and your #1 TE you are bound to loose a lot of offensive production. The fact our PPG is up on last year is a miracle imo.

[SkyBane]

When you loose a HOF receiver on pace for another 1k+ season, 2 rbs, and your #1 TE you are bound to loose a lot of offensive production. The fact our PPG is up on last year is a miracle imo.

Weve actually lost 4-5 RBs, but who's counting?

[Flash7]

Let's say that hypothetically, Pagano gets what he wants-- a "power running" offense and a defense that can stop the run. Would we be alright with that? Defensively of course we would, but we have Andrew Luck, perhaps the best young QB to enter the league in a decade or more. Would a power running team take full advantage of his skill set? I am worried about this.

 

I love watching the Colts because they are exciting to watch. I would still be a fan but would find them much more boring if they became a true power running team. Heck, I live in the SF Bay Area. I could watch the boring Niners offense if I wanted to see a power running offense, which sadly, is probably what Pagano and Pep would like to model us after.

 

Comparing the stats is difficult, mainly due to the insane amount of injuries, and the much more difficult strength of schedule.

[Kenny]

Weve actually lost 4-5 RBs, but who's counting?

I know but let's be real after the first 2 went down we were not going to find anybody worth mentioning plus Rainey was just a return man.

[Superman]

Let's say that hypothetically, Pagano gets what he wants-- a "power running" offense and a defense that can stop the run. Would we be alright with that? Defensively of course we would, but we have Andrew Luck, perhaps the best young QB to enter the league in a decade or more. Would a power running team take full advantage of his skill set? I am worried about this.

 

I love watching the Colts because they are exciting to watch. I would still be a fan but would find them much more boring if they became a true power running team. Heck, I live in the SF Bay Area. I could watch the boring Niners offense if I wanted to see a power running offense, which sadly, is probably what Pagano and Pep would like to model us after.

 

Comparing the stats is difficult, mainly due to the insane amount of injuries, and the much more difficult strength of schedule.

 

I think people are boxing this "power run game" goal in too strictly. Pagano wants an offense that can run the ball effectively and efficiently, especially when you NEED to run the ball (short yardage situations, end of game situations, inclement weather, etc.) Think about the final drive against the Texans last year, when we ran 8 minutes out and finished the game. Think about SB41. That's the goal.

 

Not a run-run-pass type offense, where you're afraid to put the ball in the quarterback's hands. Just an offense that can rely on the run game to chew up yards and clock. It's a winning formula, and it's something we've lacked since 2007. I welcome it, to be honest with you.

[#12]

Let's say that hypothetically, Pagano gets what he wants-- a "power running" offense and a defense that can stop the run. Would we be alright with that? Defensively of course we would, but we have Andrew Luck, perhaps the best young QB to enter the league in a decade or more. Would a power running team take full advantage of his skill set? I am worried about this.

 

I love watching the Colts because they are exciting to watch. I would still be a fan but would find them much more boring if they became a true power running team. Heck, I live in the SF Bay Area. I could watch the boring Niners offense if I wanted to see a power running offense, which sadly, is probably what Pagano and Pep would like to model us after.

 

Comparing the stats is difficult, mainly due to the insane amount of injuries, and the much more difficult strength of schedule.

 

Basically I look at it like this:  you need one hell of a dominant defense to get away with the way the Colts were playing offense in 2013.  If you can build the Steel Curtain and get away with playing like that, more power to you.  But It never worked.  You can't just run Richardson into a brick wall and give away possession after possession.  When they were successful, as always, it was Luck coming from behind late in games.  You can make a good argument they were winning in spite of the offensive approach. 

 

No, after a season of this I think you need to completely reassess where you are going offensively.  Luck is your greatest asset.  He plays his best in up-tempo, spread, shotgun situations.  You play in a dome.  You play in a division with 3 southern teams.  You want a reasonably balanced team, yes, but you should be doing whatever gives your team the best chance to win. 

[#12]

I'll add this:  according to Chuck and Grigson, the whole idea of the power running game was to protect Luck, but it had the opposite effect.  By beating you head against the wall with it, you put him in 2nd and long and 3rd and long constantly, turning him into a sitting duck.  He's being hit and sacked as much as last year.   

[Flash7]

Basically I look at it like this:  you need one hell of a dominant defense to get away with the way the Colts were playing offense in 2013.  If you can build the Steel Curtain and get away with playing like that, more power to you.  But It never worked.  You can't just run Richardson into a brick wall and give away possession after possession.  When they were successful, as always, it was Luck coming from behind late in games.  You can make a good argument they were winning in spite of the offensive approach. 

 

No, after a season of this I think you need to completely reassess where you are going offensively.  Luck is your greatest asset.  He plays his best in up-tempo, spread, shotgun situations.  You play in a dome.  You play in a division with 3 southern teams.  You want a reasonably balanced team, yes, but you should be doing whatever gives your team the best chance to win. 

Well said. If you really think about it, our offense was formed last year mainly due to the vision that BA had. He wanted a fast attacking style of offense that was able to dictate the tempo of the game. Now we have shifted our focus to another style of offense, but have the same personnel. We are not calling plays that take advantage of their skill sets.

 

I do feel that we did a better job of calling plays last week. We used the shotgun much more and Luck was able to distribute the ball. We ran the ball well with Brown, and had he stayed in the game, you can make an argument that he would've had, or nearly would've had, a 100-yard game. We spread out the defense and used out speed. What a concept.

[Jason_]

I think people are boxing this "power run game" goal in too strictly. Pagano wants an offense that can run the ball effectively and efficiently, especially when you NEED to run the ball (short yardage situations, end of game situations, inclement weather, etc.) Think about the final drive against the Texans last year, when we ran 8 minutes out and finished the game. Think about SB41. That's the goal.

 

Not a run-run-pass type offense, where you're afraid to put the ball in the quarterback's hands. Just an offense that can rely on the run game to chew up yards and clock. It's a winning formula, and it's something we've lacked since 2007. I welcome it, to be honest with you.

 

Agreed and very well said.  They've never said they want the offense to be run-heavy or run-first, they've simply said they wanted an effective power running game.  Having a high powered passing attack that also has an effective power running game essentially means you can win any type of game.  You can win a shoot-out or a grind it out type of game.

 

Too many people hear "power running" and are afraid that Luck won't go down as the greatest QB in history in that type of offense.  Personally I could care less what Luck's stats are or where he is ranked in the all time greatest QB list as long as the Colts win games and hopefully championships.

[Flash7]

I think people are boxing this "power run game" goal in too strictly. Pagano wants an offense that can run the ball effectively and efficiently, especially when you NEED to run the ball (short yardage situations, end of game situations, inclement weather, etc.) Think about the final drive against the Texans last year, when we ran 8 minutes out and finished the game. Think about SB41. That's the goal.

 

Not a run-run-pass type offense, where you're afraid to put the ball in the quarterback's hands. Just an offense that can rely on the run game to chew up yards and clock. It's a winning formula, and it's something we've lacked since 2007. I welcome it, to be honest with you.

Superman, I agree with everything that you've written. I think that where I disagree with Pagano's outlook on running is this: There are numerous ways of being effective in running the ball. We do not have to go into a "jumbo" formation and tip our hat. We simply do not have the personnel for that, unlike the Niners. This may be Pep's influence, however.

 

I think that every coach would want an offense that can run the ball effectively. The difference is how you do it. Stubbornly, we've chosen the most obvious way to do it, and the least effective given our personnel.

 

Like you, I would absolutely welcome an effective running game.

[Superman]

Basically I look at it like this:  you need one hell of a dominant defense to get away with the way the Colts were playing offense in 2013.  If you can build the Steel Curtain and get away with playing like that, more power to you.  But It never worked.  You can't just run Richardson into a brick wall and give away possession after possession.  When they were successful, as always, it was Luck coming from behind late in games.  You can make a good argument they were winning in spite of the offensive approach. 

 

No, after a season of this I think you need to completely reassess where you are going offensively.  Luck is your greatest asset.  He plays his best in up-tempo, spread, shotgun situations.  You play in a dome.  You play in a division with 3 southern teams.  You want a reasonably balanced team, yes, but you should be doing whatever gives your team the best chance to win. 

 

 

I'll add this:  according to Chuck and Grigson, the whole idea of the power running game was to protect Luck, but it had the opposite effect.  By beating you head against the wall with it, you put him in 2nd and long and 3rd and long constantly, turning him into a sitting duck.  He's being hit and sacked as much as last year.   

 

I don't think the two concepts are mutually exclusive. I don't think being a team that can pound the ball when necessary means that you can use a bunch of up-tempo, spread, shotgun concepts. I think you can be both, as the situation calls for it.

 

What I think is a mistake is trying to force the run at the start of the game, week after week. I think it's a mistake to run the ball between the tackles over and over again when your interior line can't get any push. There's more than one way to skin a cat, and I think our coaches need to embrace that fact. What they did against the Texans is what I've been hoping to see: more edge runs, more traps, and mixing those in with some power runs, but also getting the ball moving through the air right away.

 

But as the game wears on, you have to be able to run the ball. When you have a lead late in the game, you have to be able to run, and you have to have confidence in your ability to get yards and first downs, on the ground (see the Cowboys/Packers game). On the goal line, or third and short, you have to be able to run. That ability and that confidence won't be there if you don't emphasize the run in certain situations. You can't just say "we have a great quarterback who thrives in the shotgun/up-tempo offense, and we don't have a good run blocking line, so let's just keep throwing the ball." 

[Rian Huff]

I was just checking some stats and I think we are regressing:

 

Points per game:

 

2012: 22.3 (Tied for 18 in the league)

 

2013: 24.1 (16 in the league)

 

Third down conversion:

 

2012: 98 out of 229  43%  (7 in the league)

 

2013: 65 out of 179  36%  (21 in the league)

 

Fourth down conversion:

 

2012: 7 out of 8  88%  (1 in the league)

 

2013: 1 out of 8  12%  (32 in the league)

 

First downs per game:

 

2012: 22.5 (4 in the league)

 

2013: 19.7 (18 in the league)

 

Yards per game:

 

2012: 362.4 (10 in the league)

 

2013: 337.3 (22 in the league)

 

Yards per play:

 

2012: 5.2 (23 in the league)

 

2013: 5.4 (15 in the league)

 

ToP per game:

 

2012: 30:46 (13 in the league)

 

2013: 28:47 (28 in the league)

 

Penalties:

 

2012: 94 (8 in the league)

 

2013: 61 (Tied for 3 in the league) 2 games still remaining

 

 

I know that we increased points per game and that's the most important stat, but the increase was minimum compared to how much we decreased in other stats. Going from #1 ranked fourth down offense to 32 is just.... wow. Injuries have affected a lot but last years offense was much better.

how was are offense better last year, luck was getting sacked like crazy, was running all over the place tryingt o find receivers, now i know are offense has been skeptical but if we can move the ball around like we did our last game we will be fine and are averages will look much better next year

[Jason_]

Superman, I agree with everything that you've written. I think that where I disagree with Pagano's outlook on running is this: There are numerous ways of being effective in running the ball. We do not have to go into a "jumbo" formation and tip our hat. We simply do not have the personnel for that, unlike the Niners. This may be Pep's influence, however.

 

I think that every coach would want an offense that can run the ball effectively. The difference is how you do it. Stubbornly, we've chosen the most obvious way to do it, and the least effective given our personnel.

 

Like you, I would absolutely welcome an effective running game.

 

the biggest problem with the jumbo formations is that the colts haven't been able to effectively pass out of those formations consistently.  They've been trying but WR's haven't been getting open.  However, against Houston they were more effective out of the same type of formations they'd previously had problems with because they used Hilton and Rogers instead of Hilton and DHB.  Houston couldn't double Hilton and sell the rest of the defense out on the run because they also had to respect that Rogers could catch the ball.  They need to start hitting Fleener out of those formations too.  Once the Colts can also pass out of heavier formations then running will be easier too.

[Jason_]

 There's more than one way to skin a cat, 

 

Completely off topic but I've always wondered who came up with that phrase and why they were trying to think of multiple ways to skin a cat in the first place. 

 

lol

[Superman]

Superman, I agree with everything that you've written. I think that where I disagree with Pagano's outlook on running is this: There are numerous ways of being effective in running the ball. We do not have to go into a "jumbo" formation and tip our hat. We simply do not have the personnel for that, unlike the Niners. This may be Pep's influence, however.

 

I think that every coach would want an offense that can run the ball effectively. The difference is how you do it. Stubbornly, we've chosen the most obvious way to do it, and the least effective given our personnel.

 

Like you, I would absolutely welcome an effective running game.

 

Good post. Pagano is the head coach, the buck stops with him. 

 

I don't have a problem with the power formations, but I do have a problem with the situations we're using power formations in. I'd rather see us start the game spread out more, and mix the power stuff in as the offense starts getting into a groove.

 

I also think the fan base is starting to exaggerate the prevalence of these power formations and between the tackles running. I agree that we've overused it, but to hear some people tell it, we've been trying to turn this team into the '70s Steelers.