Trent the next Marshawn Lynch?

[esmort]

this article was posted in another thread and this was my response.

 

my problem was giving up a 1st round pick, seattle gave up a 4th round pick for lynch. lynch was a career 4 ypc rb and 4.4 ypc that year (much better) and they only gave up a 4th round pick! if the colts gave up a 4th for tr, i don't believe there would be a lot of complaining here. lynch had some good games in those 6 you talk about, but one terrible one (9 carries 7 yards) that kills the ypc in a small sample size. all richardson's games with the colts have been very consistent. also, seattle was a 7-9 team that year, the colts are a much better team. when seattle got a lot better, he got better.

 

^^^ This .... Gambling a 4th round draft pick is much different than a 1st round pick ... I could have gotten onboard with a mid round pick.  Chappell's comparison is "grasping at straws" to try to justify the trade and all of TRich's excuse makers are more than willing to latch onto anything that can justify trading a 1st rnd draft pick for an average RB.

[colts_100nascar17fan]

Noway, wishful thinking. He will never be good,the browns line is better than ours and he didnt do jack there,mcgahee is doing better there than trent as far as yards n stuff(anybody can score from a yard out). Trent fans keep setting themselves up for disappointment.

[esmort]

These threads need to go away til next season. Give management some time to put the righ players in the o line and give TR an offseason with some decent talent blocking for him.

 

This is one of my favorites .... give him tell next season + give him a good oline ... we could have used that formula for getting a RB lower in the draft or FA and along with the proposed Oline improvements we would have had a good running game next year without spending a 1st on TRich.

[esmort]

If we go out and get some FA Offensive Linemen in the offseason, in addition to getting Thomas and D Allen back ... and TRich all of a sudden starts doing better ... that doesn't necessarily make TRich anybetter (or justify the trade).  Add Thomas + FA OL talent + D Allen ... and we could put about any average RB behind there and he will look good.

[Dustin]

If we go out and get some FA Offensive Linemen in the offseason, in addition to getting Thomas and D Allen back ... and TRich all of a sudden starts doing better ... that doesn't necessarily make TRich anybetter (or justify the trade). Add Thomas + FA OL talent + D Allen ... and we could put about any average RB behind there and he will look good.

I'm glad you're hedging your bets so you don't have to eat crow if he does well.

[dudeski]

This is one of my favorites .... give him tell next season + give him a good oline ... we could have used that formula for getting a RB lower in the draft or FA and along with the proposed Oline improvements we would have had a good running game next year without spending a 1st on TRich.

ideally that is exactly what i would have done.  i would never have traded for trich.  it is putting the cart before the horse.  sort of

 

 

lets do away with the foolish power run formations on 2nd and 10 and see how we do running the ball. 

[BProland85]

I mean his style and the way he is built as a runner has always reminded me of Marshawn Lynch so yes he could become him someday. We just need to continue to add to the OL.

[dw49]

^^^ This .... Gambling a 4th round draft pick is much different than a 1st round pick ... I could have gotten onboard with a mid round pick.  Chappell's comparison is "grasping at straws" to try to justify the trade and all of TRich's excuse makers are more than willing to latch onto anything that can justify trading a 1st rnd draft pick for an average RB.

 

 

this article was posted in another thread and this was my response.

 

my problem was giving up a 1st round pick, seattle gave up a 4th round pick for lynch. lynch was a career 4 ypc rb and 4.4 ypc that year (much better) and they only gave up a 4th round pick! if the colts gave up a 4th for tr, i don't believe there would be a lot of complaining here. lynch had some good games in those 6 you talk about, but one terrible one (9 carries 7 yards) that kills the ypc in a small sample size. all richardson's games with the colts have been very consistent. also, seattle was a 7-9 team that year, the colts are a much better team. when seattle got a lot better, he got better.

 

 

Lots of differences.  Yes Lynch turned out to be cheap and a better deal but the circumstances at the time of the trade and going forward were not even close to being "apples to apples."

 

1) Buffalo had devalued Lynch considerably. He had lost the starting job to Fred Jackson in 2009 , although he did get it back the year he was traded... 2010. Also the Bills had just spent their 2010 1st round pick on Spillner. So not only did they want to make room for Spillner , they wanted to get Lynch's  base salary off the books as Spillner had a cap hit of about 4 mill per year going forward. No way a team would want 2 highly paid RBs on their roster , especially when the back up (Jackson) had beat one guy out the previous year. Good bet that he only got his job back in 2010 so they could showcase him and move him.

 

2) Lynch was in the 4th year of his 5 year deal. TR is only in the 2nd year of his deal. Besides the less wear and tear , it ended up meaning the following cap numbers going forward on the two players. Below represents the 3 years following the trade for each player.

 

Lynch 2013 - 2015             8.5 mill  7 mill   9 mill

 

Richardson 2014 - 2016    1.2 mill   2.5 mill  3.2 mill

[esmort]

I'm glad you're hedging your bets so you don't have to eat crow if he does well.

 

I understand what you are saying, but that is not my intent.   My point is that if he doesnt improve this year, and than all of a sudden next year after we add a new guard and center + you get D Allen back who is an all around weapon on the line including an great blocker and his numbers go up a little ... what does that prove?  Does that reflect on his skills improving or the fact he is still the same average back in a better situation ... and if it is the latter than he was the waste of a 1st round pick.

 

Thats why I want to see him show me that "1st round talent" the second half of this year.  I want to see a RB that has the vision to improvise and make his own plays to some extent and doesn't run into a pile just because that is where the play was designed to go.  Call it hedging my bets if you want to, but if he continues to show that he does not have that ability this season; than increasing his stats behind a stud oline next season won't mean squat to me.  And if Ballard or Bradshaw(or some other FA back) come back and have stats even close to his next season behind a new oline than he will officially be a waste of a draft pick.

[Ohio Colt]

Noway, wishful thinking. He will never be good,the browns line is better than ours and he didnt do jack there,mcgahee is doing better there than trent as far as yards n stuff(anybody can score from a yard out). Trent fans keep setting themselves up for disappointment.

Agree, he's never been half the back to this point that Lynch was in Buffalo. Buffalo didnt let him go bc of lack of performance or ability, he was a problem child. I would trade Trent's quality being a model citizen if he could just produce

[coltsfanatic24]

I've said this from the beginning that Trent's situation being on a bad team with horrible o-line play and playing style is similar to Lynch. Trent has missed a few running lanes and he has to improve on that but for the most part there haven't been many holes for him to run through because of the bad play from interior of the o-line.

 

The screen pass he caught to the left up the sideline vs the Texans you could see the burst and quickness that he has in the open field. Getting Donald Thomas, Dwayne Allen back and signing a C like Alex Mack will really bolster the o-line. Hugh Thornton will be better as well with a year under his belt and a better understanding of the offensive scheme.The talent is there he just needs better interior play from the offensive line. This trade will have the same effect on the team as the Davis trade some of you guys just have to be patient.

[aliveon2legs]

Agree, he's never been half the back to this point that Lynch was in Buffalo. Buffalo didnt let him go bc of lack of performance or ability, he was a problem child. I would trade Trent's quality being a model citizen if he could just produce

 

Lynch was nothing special in Buffalo.  He topped 1000 yards in his first two seasons, but barely, and then tanked in his next two.  When he was traded away Fred Jackson took over and didn't miss a beat, and frankly looked like the better back behind the same offensive line.

[aliveon2legs]

What drives me crazy is the growing rumblings in the media that somehow Donald Brown is performing better than Trent and is therefore somehow the better back.  When Brown is in Pep runs completely different formations.  It's like Brown is playing in a entirely different offense.  It makes the comparisons completely apples to oranges meaningless.  Give Trent a couple of drives where you're calling plays as if he is Donald Brown instead of running him in the I-Form every frickin' play and let's see how he does.  Why is that so hard?  And why does it take 8 frickin' weeks to discover the screen pass?

[Gavin]

Lynch was nothing special in Buffalo.  He topped 1000 yards in his first two seasons, but barely, and then tanked in his next two.  When he was traded away Fred Jackson took over and didn't miss a beat, and frankly looked like the better back behind the same offensive line.

He missed 3 games his first year in Buffalo and 1 the next year

[aliveon2legs]

He missed 3 games his first year in Buffalo and 1 the next year

What happened in 2009? 13 games, 450 yards?  That's pretty ugly.  Was he playing hurt?

[coltsfanatic24]

Lynch was nothing special in Buffalo.  He topped 1000 yards in his first two seasons, but barely, and then tanked in his next two.  When he was traded away Fred Jackson took over and didn't miss a beat, and frankly looked like the better back behind the same offensive line.

Absolutely agree, Lynch was considered a bust in Buffalo. They even drafted CJ Spiller with the 9th pick and Lynch was only 23 years old. Lynch wasn't the problem it was how the Bills were using him and the bad o-line play, same situation with Richardson.

[coltsfanatic24]

For the few people who don't like the trade would you give up the 26th pick in the draft if you knew that Trent would reach his full potential similar to Vontae Davis?

[esmort]

For the few people who don't like the trade would you give up the 26th pick in the draft if you knew that Trent would reach his full potential similar to Vontae Davis?

 

Whats your definition of his "full potential"?  If "full potential" = Best RB after Adrian Peterson than he was worth it ... if he is perennially outside the top 5 RBs than no he was not worth it.

[Buck Showalter]

cold weather is going to block for us? I don't get it

Awesome...

[Buck Showalter]

Maybe TRich should try out different types of candy before games... Star bursts, Tootsie Rolls, Blue M&M's...

[BOTT]

For the few people who don't like the trade would you give up the 26th pick in the draft if you knew that Trent would reach his full potential similar to Vontae Davis?

No. I loved the Davis trade from the start because I thought He had lots of ability and he plays a very valuable position....much more valuable than RB....with a longer shelf life too.

[coltsfanatic24]

Whats your definition of his "full potential"?  If "full potential" = Best RB after Adrian Peterson than he was worth it ... if he is perennially outside the top 5 RBs than no he was not worth it.

Full potential as in top 5-10 RB, 1,200 10 TD a year type of a RB for the next 4 years with a low salary. Keep in mind that this is a weak RB draft, only Seastrunk is considered to be a late first rounder and he's a speed back. Ballard is coming off an ACL injury, and Bradshaw career is likely over. We didn't draft him with the #3 pick will be giving up a pick in the late 20's. Considering the circumstances with  awful interior line play i still think this was a great deal for us.

[husker61]

For the few people who don't like the trade would you give up the 26th pick in the draft if you knew that Trent would reach his full potential similar to Vontae Davis?

 

meaning 1,500 yards, 4.5+ ypc, or what?

[coltsfanatic24]

meaning 1,500 yards, 4.5+ ypc, or what?

He'll never be a 1,500 yard back because Luck is the QB will still be a passing team. Something like 1,200 yards 4.3 ypc, 10 TD's for the next 4 years  with a low salary.

[husker61]

He'll never be a 1,500 yard back because Luck is the QB will still be a passing team. Something like 1,200 yards 4.3 ypc, 10 TD's for the next 4 years  with a low salary.

 

no, that's just above average. i would rather take a chance on a player falling in the 1st round or a top guard with the pick. you could get lucky with a later round pick on a rb like the colts did with ballard and would be much cheaper.

[Tark The Shark]

Trent certainly has similar physical tools as Marshawn.

 

It took a long time for Marshawn to come along and he has turned into a very good power back. We will definitely need better interior line play.

[esmort]

Full potential as in top 5-10 RB, 1,200 10 TD a year type of a RB for the next 4 years with a low salary. Keep in mind that this is a weak RB draft, only Seastrunk is considered to be a late first rounder and he's a speed back. Ballard is coming off an ACL injury, and Bradshaw career is likely over. We didn't draft him with the #3 pick will be giving up a pick in the late 20's. Considering the circumstances with  awful interior line play i still think this was a great deal for us.

 

No, I would not pay a 1st round pick for a RB to put up those numbers.  With Thomas and Allen back, and you are talking Mack at center. I would roll with a later round RB + some combination of Ballard/Brown/Bradshaw/FA. I am with Husker I would rather take a chance on a player at a more valuable position falling.

[James Harden]

Maybe if Trent start eating Skittles.

[GoColts8818]

What drives me crazy is the growing rumblings in the media that somehow Donald Brown is performing better than Trent and is therefore somehow the better back.  When Brown is in Pep runs completely different formations.  It's like Brown is playing in a entirely different offense.  It makes the comparisons completely apples to oranges meaningless.  Give Trent a couple of drives where you're calling plays as if he is Donald Brown instead of running him in the I-Form every frickin' play and let's see how he does.  Why is that so hard?  And why does it take 8 frickin' weeks to discover the screen pass?

At the end of the day you get judged on production and we can sit here and talk all day about why different players have different production levels and you would be right IMO to say that Brown is benefiting from being the change of pace back in different situations but if you are producing like Brown is doing when he gets his turn (which is all he can do) he's going to get more carries.  Sunday the carries were split almost 50/50.  My guess is if Brown's YPC stays as high as it has been he's going to start getting the majority of them till his YPC falls off which it might very well if he starts seeing the same running formations Trent has seen. 

[GoColts8818]

this article was posted in another thread and this was my response.

 

my problem was giving up a 1st round pick, seattle gave up a 4th round pick for lynch. lynch was a career 4 ypc rb and 4.4 ypc that year (much better) and they only gave up a 4th round pick! if the colts gave up a 4th for tr, i don't believe there would be a lot of complaining here. lynch had some good games in those 6 you talk about, but one terrible one (9 carries 7 yards) that kills the ypc in a small sample size. all richardson's games with the colts have been very consistent. also, seattle was a 7-9 team that year, the colts are a much better team. when seattle got a lot better, he got better.

That's fair, one of the biggest gripes about Polian was the trade for Ugoh because it hurt us in three different drafts, the draft we took him because he didn't pan out, the next year we didn't have the first rounder we traded for him and then a few years later we had to draft another LT to replace him in the first round because he didn't pan out.  If Trent fails this could be his Ugoh. 

[jamesie jr]

Yeah i can see that.

[Coltsman1788]

He has all of the physical tools. There are just two things holding him back. Their names are Satele and McGlynn

Funny how Ahmad Bradshaw didn't seem to have any problems running behind our O Line with those same guys. I would take him all day over Richardson if he was still healthy. Time for Trent to step it up and for fans to stop trying to make excuses for him.

[dudeski]

Funny how Ahmad Bradshaw didn't seem to have any problems running behind our O Line with those same guys. I would take him all day over Richardson if he was still healthy. Time for Trent to step it up and for fans to stop trying to make excuses for him.

there are excuses and there are reasons.

I don't get why people don't want reasons

[NewEra]

Funny how Ahmad Bradshaw didn't seem to have any problems running behind our O Line with those same guys. I would take him all day over Richardson if he was still healthy. Time for Trent to step it up and for fans to stop trying to make excuses for him.

Bradshaw had one good game, San Fran. Which he always had success running against them with the Giants. Also, would love to go back and rematch to see what formations and plays he was running out of him.

What I like more than anything was his fiery passion! Wish we could see that in Trent.

[BleedBlu8792]

Funny how Ahmad Bradshaw didn't seem to have any problems running behind our O Line with those same guys. I would take him all day over Richardson if he was still healthy. Time for Trent to step it up and for fans to stop trying to make excuses for him.

Coincidentally Satele wasn't playing and McGlynn was at Center. Even going back to last year, some of our best rushing games have been with Satele out and McGlynn at Center.

[Coltsman1788]

Bradshaw had one good game, San Fran. Which he always had success running against them with the Giants. Also, would love to go back and rematch to see what formations and plays he was running out of him.

What I like more than anything was his fiery passion! Wish we could see that in Trent.

True it was only one game but it was only the third game of the season. He needed a couple games to get familiarized with the offense since he didn't play in the preseason but by his third game in (not even starting some of those) he was showing his stuff and running with fire. I believe if healthy we would be consensus favorites to rep the AFC right now but alas his injury proneness reared its ugly head and now Trent must be the man. Trent has played more games than Bradshaw now so it is time for him to start showing some more and to adjust to the line he has to work with. I agree that I would like to see him running with more fiery passion...to "run angry" like Bradshaw.

[Coltsman1788]

Coincidentally Satele wasn't playing and McGlynn was at Center. Even going back to last year, some of our best rushing games have been with Satele out and McGlynn at Center.

Good point...I will acknowledge this. Then Pep needs to shuffle the deck and see if Trent can have similar success running behind that arrangement. Hopefully he could but I am not exactly holding my breath for it to happen based on what I have seen thus far from his time here and in Cleveland.

[optimusprimetime]

Seattle got him for a 4th rounder because he was coming off a year where he had 450 yards rushing and a 3.8 ypc.......The next year Buffalo/Seattle he did a little better 737 yards but his ypc went down to 3.6.....Those are 2 weak seasons for a guy that rushed for over a 1000 twice before the trade to Seattle....Hindsight is Lynch looks great now but it really is hard to absorb all the plays in a short period of time....I still like the trade and I believe it will be one of the better moves Grigs has done so far, we basically got next years rookie this year and he is learning on the fly. 

 

 

 

 

[Coltsman1788]

there are excuses and there are reasons.

I don't get why people don't want reasons

Because it is not a valid reason if others (Bradshaw, Brown) have had some success running behind the same line. It might be part of the equation but the other part of the solution involves some level of culpability attributed to Richardson. He has had enough time to adjust now...he needs to step up his game.