Indianapolis (-2) @ Houston

[lollygagger8]

That will be hard considering Tate likely wont play with his cracked ribs. Foster is questionable too. Well be playing the Texans with their 3rd string RB carrying the load.

 

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/10/tate-plans-to-play-vs-colts-fosters-status-tbd/

 

Tate plans to play vs. Colts; Foster’s status TBD

 

Ben Tate has every intention of playing Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts at Reliant Stadium.

Arian Foster’s status remains to be determined.

Foster, Tate and guard Wade Smith were held out of practice Monday, coach Gary Kubiak said. Foster’s hamstring is gradually improving, while Tate plans to take the field with four broken ribs.

“Every day they get better and better,” Tate said. “So I think by Sunday, I’ll be fine.”

Foster will continue to test a hamstring that kept him out of an Oct. 20 road loss to Kansas City.

“Opened up pretty good (Monday),” he said. “So I expect to practice this week and push towards playing.”

He added: “It’s a decision we’ll make later in the week.”

Kubiak expressed concern about the state of the team’s running backs, acknowledging Foster and Tate wouldn’t have played Monday if needed. The Texans added backs Deji Karim, Ray Graham and Dennis Johnson to their 53-man roster and are carrying five running backs and fullback Greg Jones into Sunday’s contest.

“Very concerned,” Kubiak said. “We understand Ben’s situation. I think they’re both going to give us everything they can to try to play this week. I don’t think we’re going to know anything until later in the week.”

Twitter: ChronBrianSmith

[dw49]

Colts lost to Miami at home and beat the 49ers on the road. I find it hard to believe they are "much better at home."

 

 

Without going and looking up all the stats , I did read that Andrew Luck is playing much better at home. Don't know if that means squat , just felt like adding my 2 cents.

[SkyBane]

http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/10/tate-plans-to-play-vs-colts-fosters-status-tbd/

Tate plans to play vs. Colts; Foster’s status TBD

Ben Tate has every intention of playing Sunday night against the Indianapolis Colts at Reliant Stadium.

Arian Foster’s status remains to be determined.

Foster, Tate and guard Wade Smith were held out of practice Monday, coach Gary Kubiak said. Foster’s hamstring is gradually improving, while Tate plans to take the field with four broken ribs.

“Every day they get better and better,” Tate said. “So I think by Sunday, I’ll be fine.”

Foster will continue to test a hamstring that kept him out of an Oct. 20 road loss to Kansas City.

“Opened up pretty good (Monday),” he said. “So I expect to practice this week and push towards playing.”

He added: “It’s a decision we’ll make later in the week.”

Kubiak expressed concern about the state of the team’s running backs, acknowledging Foster and Tate wouldn’t have played Monday if needed. The Texans added backs Deji Karim, Ray Graham and Dennis Johnson to their 53-man roster and are carrying five running backs and fullback Greg Jones into Sunday’s contest.

“Very concerned,” Kubiak said. “We understand Ben’s situation. I think they’re both going to give us everything they can to try to play this week. I don’t think we’re going to know anything until later in the week.”

Twitter: ChronBrianSmith

Really? Hes going with the broken ribs? Hand it to the guy for his grit, but that likely wont be the same Ben Tate were all used to. He'll be so doped up on painkillers, he wont even know when he is down.

[Superman]

Colts lost to Miami at home and beat the 49ers on the road. I find it hard to believe they are "much better at home."

 

Lost to the Chargers on the road, beat the Seahawks and Broncos at home. I think the Colts travel well -- don't commit a lot of penalties, have a physical defense and are trying to be a physical offense, good QB, veteran kicker --  but home field is always better.

[Balzer40]

Sky..

I dont think they run well because of the backs..Its the O-line..which I think is better than you say.

It was against KC..did you see that game?

WE don't play well on the road and Houston almost beat KC at KC

...I think minus-2 will go down as the week goes on

 

 

 

You are the biggest worry wart I've ever heard. Don't play well on the road??? We blew San Fran out of their own stadium when everybody expected us to get crushed. Honestly, you may need some meds or something, you over think everything and worry way too much.

[Dark Superman]

You do realize the Texans are brutalized by injuries on both sides of the ball, right? They are likely to be without either of their top RB's, starting a rookie at QB, and the defensive leader in Cushing is out for the season.

Without Reggie, the Colt's passing game is an unknown, and that makes them a shakier favorite. Their strength is in defensive play, however, and against a raw talent like Keenum, you would expect a shutdown secondary to make some plays.

-2 is about right.

Who's all injured for Houston besides Cushing?

[Dark Superman]

Is Hopkins playing?

[BOTT]

Lost to the Chargers on the road, beat the Seahawks and Broncos at home. I think the Colts travel well -- don't commit a lot of penalties, have a physical defense and are trying to be a physical offense, good QB, veteran kicker --  but home field is always better.

I don't think losing on the west coast to a team that is actually pretty good is anything to hang your head about. Then again, getting somewhat dominated was disappointing.

[BlueShoe]

We will finish them this week.

 

Like the old Mortal Combat game, "Finish Him!"

 

Bye, bye Houston.

[OLD FAN MAN]

Will be interesting to see how the colts move the ball without reggie on 3rd down. If Luck can spread the ball around, i think we win by 10. If we struggle on 3rd down, the game could get out of hand.

look for play action passes from the power run formation

[Andy]

Only two point favorites? Interesting, you would think the Colts would be a bit more, but I guess the oddsmakers are really like the fact that Houston is at home. 

 

I would have to think the Colts would be a few points higher had they been at home. 

[jwilli69]

Ok help me understand the line betting thing. At -2, the Colts would have to win by at least 3 points for me to win a wager if I bet on the Colts is that right? And to win by taking the Texans, all they would have to do is win the game outright or only lose by 1 point? Am I right?

I am a little surprised the line would be this low as well but I'm sure they are factoring in that its a common opponent, it's at Texas and no Reggie Wayne, Luck's security blanket.

[ricker182]

The Texans are really beat up. Their defense has been average to say it best.

[Guest TeamLoloJones]

The Texans are really beat up. Their defense has been average to say it best.

Yardage wise they are the best in the NFL...Points allowed has been skewed by all the pick sixes and turnovers.  But that was before Cushing went down.

[Buck Showalter]

The line in some books has moved to Colts -3...

[bayone]

Ive been told the home field was worth 3 points.

The line is Indy minus 2.

So the odds makers are saying, on a neutral field Colts by 5 points.

 

read that also, someone in USA today in past used something like 2,.87 in his rating system, some guy with an S to start last name

 

He may still, honestly havent had much chance to read it lately to know

[dw49]

Ok help me understand the line betting thing. At -2, the Colts would have to win by at least 3 points for me to win a wager if I bet on the Colts is that right? And to win by taking the Texans, all they would have to do is win the game outright or only lose by 1 point? Am I right?

I am a little surprised the line would be this low as well but I'm sure they are factoring in that its a common opponent, it's at Texas and no Reggie Wayne, Luck's security blanket.

 

 

 

You have it and if the Colts win by 2 , the bet is a push. 

[dudeman]

I wonder if Pagano is putting up rat traps for an ACTUAL trap game....

[Carlos Danger]

I think this will be one of those grind it out games... low scoring and ugly, but we will run the ball better than they will and pull it off... I can see our offense struggling to get used to life without Reggie as a safety valve... at least this week... I can also see a rookie QB making mistakes after getting nailed by #98 a couple times..

 

Colts 20 Texans 16

[MacDee1975]

Sky..

I dont think they run well because of the backs..Its the O-line..which I think is better than you say.

It was against KC..did you see that game?

WE don't play well on the road and Houston almost beat KC at KC

...I think minus-2 will go down as the week goes on

 

Yeah.....those peformances at SF and at Jax were horrid.

 

Solid point.

[MacDee1975]

Yardage wise they are the best in the NFL...Points allowed has been skewed by all the pick sixes and turnovers.  But that was before Cushing went down.

 

Actually, the yardage allowed is the thing that is scewed by all the pick sixes.

 

Think about what happens when you throw a pick six:  Your offense gets the ball 2 possessions in a row without your opponent's offense even seeing the field.  Hard to gain yards when your offense isn't on the field.

 

The Houston defense is average.  Opponents convert a high percentage of 3rd downs, and score very easily on them in the red zone.  That's not good defense.

[SkyBane]

Actually, the yardage allowed is the thing that is scewed by all the pick sixes.

Think about what happens when you throw a pick six: Your offense gets the ball 2 possessions in a row without your opponent's offense even seeing the field. Hard to gain yards when your offense isn't on the field.

The Houston defense is average. Opponents convert a high percentage of 3rd downs, and score very easily on them in the red zone. That's not good defense.

They have also been gashed by the run when Cushing has been out, meaning lower passing yards as you dont gain those when you run. Honestly, the Texans have been turnover prone, and their special teams havent been great. They are completely reliant on their now hobbled defense to win them games, and its been atrocious in the red zone and on 3rd down. Now, both their starting RB's are beaten up as well. Foster is doubtful with his hammy, and Tate is begging Kubiak to let him play with 4 broken ribs.

This is not the same Texans team from last year. Im not entirely sure why the dropoff happened earlier in the season, but its now a beaten and bruised squad with a QB in his second NFL start. If it werent for a questionable Colts passing attack and the unstoppable ball of insanity that is J.J. Watt, the line would be much higher.

[jwilli69]

I see one of the WR 's going off the hook and dominating the game in the first half and the RB to salt it away in the second half. We win, not a question

[oldunclemark]

I see one of the WR 's going off the hook and dominating the game in the first half and the RB to salt it away in the second half. We win, not a question

I hope its one of the Indy WRs...and one of the Indy RBs

[oldunclemark]

over-under 44.5

...looks like an under..a lot of skill players are hurt here

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

The Texans are really beat up. Their defense has been average to say it best.

 

And there starting there 3'rd string nurse I mean QB ..

 

[schwamm]

Depend on what defense shows up on Sunday. Hopefully not the one against San Diego

D was NOT the problem in SD, except maybe for the few sloppy penalties that extended drives. The Chargers only posted 19, and the time of possession had as much to do with all the dropped passes on O as anything the D did. Luck and Co. just couldn't get anything going.

[ColtsBlueFL]

To be honest, I thought Houston would be favored at home..

.... minus-2 is basically an even game....

but Colts without Reggie?...I'd stay away from this

 

I believe the standard thought is home team advantage is 3 points. So if Colts are -2, then that means Colts are favored by 5 on a neutral field.  But then again, the spread is set largely in part to get folks to place bets equally in amount on both sides.  Too many lopsided bets will shift the spread number to help compensate.  So it appears most favor the Colts, but by a slim margin.  Does not mean We can't win by a large margin, which I hope we do.

 

**EDIT: I see this has been mostly addressed in later answers.  

[jameszeigler834]

Its real simple don't get run all over and don't let Hopkins and Johnson get loose and we win however we let all that happen and we will be in trouble and we will be down a starting corner if Toler cant go and I hope he can cause I don't want Vaughn out there.

[schwamm]

So how long has it been since the Colts won at Reliant? I think they pulled one out in '09, but I know that has been the toughest destination within the division for quite a while. Hopefully these new look Colts will find a different result than recent years down there.

[SkyBane]

Just doing some quick home analysis based on various stats and other things I could find my quick take on the game.

When IND has the ball:

- The Texans defense is a chore to analyze at first, but things fall in to place when you look at things as a whole. The Texans have allowed the least passing yards, but have been gashed between the tackles by the run. Their NT is a gasher, not a clogger, and can overpursue, opening up the middle. This is especially dangerous now with Cushing out.

-J.J. Watt is still a force of nature. He will cause havoc if not doubled.

-Ed Reed has looked old, and has seemed invisible at times in the secondary. He appears to be in the last gasps of his career.

-Indy's questions at wideout will not be answered in one game. The run must be established early to allow the recievers the time to get open. Given he is the most targeted reciever on the team, expect the best coverage to be devoted to TY. This could create mismatches for DHB.

When HOU has the ball:

-Turnovers have been the achilles heel of not just the offense, but the entire team. With a young guy like Keenum under the bright lights, Kubiak will probably call a safe gameplan to start to keep the QB loose.

-The Texans are battered in the ground game. Foster is not looking likely to start with niggling hamstring injuries, and Tate is lobbying to play with 4 broken ribs. Yick. Regardless if Tate plays, the Texans will be thin at RB, and using a third string guy as at least relief.

-Newton has been bad at RT for the Texans. Mathis is having a career best season rushing the passer. Most can do that math.

-The Colts secondary is coming off an incredible game against a loaded Broncos passing attack. Against one of the worst passing offenses going, you would expect the likes of Davis and Landry to come up with another bog performance.

Other notes:

-Both offensively and defensively, the Texans are among the worst in the red zone. They struggle both in converting points and stopping points from going up, even though they are solid in both phases between the 20's.

-Reggie Wayne accounted for 35% of the Colts first downs converted by passing, and 34% of 3rd down receptions. His presence will be missed most on sustaining drives.

Key Players HOU:

Case Keenum- Stay away from turnovers, and provide a needed spark on offense with a crippled run game.

J.J. Watt- Provide pressure on Luck. Make his untested recieving corp bail him out. Dont allow him to escape when the pocket breaks down.

Andre Johnson- Be the young QB's security blanket. Give him the easy out when the pressure inevitablh comes.

Key players IND:

Andrew Luck- Buy time for your recievers. Dont force a play that isnt there.

Trent Richardson- The run game will be imperitive to establishing the offense, especially between the tackles.

Darrius Heyward-Bey- TY should draw their primary coverage, making the mismatch potentially here. Capitalize and be the big target you were signed to be.

Prediction:

Colts win in a defensive dogfight, as the Texans offensive problems prove greater than Indy's.

Just my thoughts on things, take with a grain of salt, as Im obviously bias, though I tried to keep the bias out.

[coltsfanatic24]

Keenum isn't Rivers and as bad as we played vs the Chargers we still had a chance to tie it up in the 4th. This game will be the complete opposite the defense will play better and Luck will have a great game.

 

Colts 33 Texans 13

[King Colt]

We learned today the Texans will be dressed in heir "Battle" red uniforms. The Colts will wear white and since white is the color of surrender the Colts will surrender 10 points and win by 14.

[King Colt]

Keenum isn't Rivers and as bad as we played vs the Chargers we still had a chance to tie it up in the 4th. This game will be the complete opposite the defense will play better and Luck will have a great game.

 

Colts 33 Texans 13

Texas has an outside linebacker Merciless that can't rush to the bathroom much less a QB and Mr. Baltimore Ed Reed has read his last year as a player- he is a bust for Houston's effort to bolster their pass defense.  

[schwamm]

I was just thinking... I know Houston just had its bye week too, but the one for the Colts (coupled with the uncommon vacay Coach gave the players) may have come at an ideal time.

As much energy and emotion as the Denver game likely required, and as much as the same will be important for a critical away game against a division rival... at a stadium that has been unkind to the Colts recently... the break will almost assuredly allow the Colts to come out fresh, energized and motivated.

[oldunclemark]

You are the biggest worry wart I've ever heard. Don't play well on the road??? We blew San Fran out of their own stadium when everybody expected us to get crushed. Honestly, you may need some meds or something, you over think everything and worry way too much.

Must have missed the San Diego game..

Last 2 years...THIS team has not played consistently well on the road....That's obvious to the objective

By the way...Nobody says 'worry wart' anymore That went out in 1995

[oldunclemark]

Lost to the Chargers on the road, beat the Seahawks and Broncos at home. I think the Colts travel well -- don't commit a lot of penalties, have a physical defense and are trying to be a physical offense, good QB, veteran kicker --  but home field is always better.

Spread is up to 2 1/2 for the Colts as of Friday

[oldunclemark]

So how long has it been since the Colts won at Reliant? I think they pulled one out in '09, but I know that has been the toughest destination within the division for quite a while. Hopefully these new look Colts will find a different result than recent years down there.

I think it stacks up as a great game because Houston still has most of a strong offense..but the QB slot has been a black hole this year.

The Colts obviously have the QB..and their skill players have been going down.

We've lost 2 backs and 2 receivers (Allen and Reggie) since the start of the year..

I like the skill guys we have on the field but you have to HOPE they're going to play well on the road because they havent

Realistically, I don't see Case Keenan going 15 of 25 for 270 again.....

So these teams wont be scoring much on each other..

Maybe its an Adam V field goal and the 2 1/2 is right

....

[oldunclemark]

Keenum isn't Rivers and as bad as we played vs the Chargers we still had a chance to tie it up in the 4th. This game will be the complete opposite the defense will play better and Luck will have a great game.

 

Colts 33 Texans 13

we're not going to scorer 33 on them

Ed Reed is a joker back there..you don't know where he'll be...

[schwamm]

Must have missed the San Diego game..

Last 2 years...THIS team has not played consistently well on the road....That's obvious to the objective

By the way...Nobody says 'worry wart' anymore That went out in 1995

Regardless of its antiquity, if the shoe fits...

So does the loss to Miami this year, or to Jax last year, make the Colts inconsistent at home? Just about every team has "struggles" on the road. This is why Vegas typically assigns home field a 3 point advantage.

The Colts went 4-4 on the road last year (not bad for a bunch of newcomers, top to bottom), and are 2-1 this year. Considering where the team was before the start of last season, I'd say this is actually a far better road team than anyone would have projected.