What's A 2nd Round Pick Really Worth?

[HtownColt]

this is for the people who treat draft picks like vintage baseball cards and are scared to trade them.

So just what is a 2nd round pick really worth? i found an article breaking down 2nd round picks over the past 4 years and breaking down the 2nd round draft classes up to date. and is Vontae Davis is warrant a 2nd round pick?(of course he is) but after looking at this article just gives me confirmation that Grigson did the right thing here. well here you go.

http://coltfollowing.net/whats-a-second-round-pick-really-worth/

[mark5362]

Id like to see a list like that on all the rounds. Thanks

[21isSuperman]

One way I like to think about it is that the chances of there being a CB with Davis' ability in the 2nd round isn't very likely. However, one could argue that second round picks are more important. Gronk was a 2nd round pick, so was Bob Sanders. Andy Dalton was a 2nd rounder too. There is lots of talent in the 2nd round, so it's up to management and scouting to make an assessment as to what move will be best for the team. Personally, I don't like trading high round draft picks, but I still like the deal.

[NewColtsFan]

Good post... and good find.

And I say that as someone who is not entirely comfortable with giving up the 2nd round pick.

But **NOT** because Davis isn't worth it. But because I'm not sold that the Dolphins would have demanded a two if we had been a little more patient. If we had waited until the season started, and Davis was a back-up for them instead of a starter, I think the price comes down.

I watched the HBO Hard Knocks last night. Ireland says we called them and our first offer was a 5 and a 6. He kept saying 'no' and we kept upping the offer. He tells their HC that when we were up to a 3 and a 6 he told Grigson that he wouldn't do the deal unless it was for a 2. And, eventually, we said 'yes'

The question becomes was getting Davis this early worth giving up a #2 rather than holding out and getting him, say, in a month for a lesser price? I think it's something we'll never know, but it's worth considering.

Either way, I'm at peace with the move. I think we've got to give the Irsay/Grigson/Pagano team major props for trying to get good NOW! After all, we could be Miami, who appear to be trying to finish with a top-5 pick and do a re-do all over again.

I wouldn't want to be a Dolphins player, or a Dolphins fan right now. They look to have a long year in front of them.

[Superman]

Good stuff. Dude sells a lot of players short, particularly in 2010's 2nd round picks (T. Cody, S. Lee, B. Spikes, P. Angerer, G. Tate, etc. are all really good young players). But overall, the point is clear. Every draft pick has a measure of uncertainty to it, and that uncertainty goes through the roof once you get past the first 10-15 picks of the first round. If you can use a 2nd rounder to acquire a proven vet who should contribute at a high level for the next three years, especially when the pick won't be used until the next offseason, you're trading potential for actual production.

[luckycharm]

Good post... and good find.

And I say that as someone who is not entirely comfortable with giving up the 2nd round pick.

But **NOT** because Davis isn't worth it. But because I'm not sold that the Dolphins would have demanded a two if we had been a little more patient. If we had waited until the season started, and Davis was a back-up for them instead of a starter, I think the price comes down.

I watched the HBO Hard Knocks last night. Ireland says we called them and our first offer was a 5 and a 6. He kept saying 'no' and we kept upping the offer. He tells their HC that when we were up to a 3 and a 6 he told Grigson that he wouldn't do the deal unless it was for a 2. And, eventually, we said 'yes'

The question becomes was getting Davis this early worth giving up a #2 rather than holding out and getting him, say, in a month for a lesser price? I think it's something we'll never know, but it's worth considering.

Either way, I'm at peace with the move. I think we've got to give the Irsay/Grigson/Pagano team major props for trying to get good NOW! After all, we could be Miami, who appear to be trying to finish with a top-5 pick and do a re-do all over again.

I wouldn't want to be a Dolphins player, or a Dolphins fan right now. They look to have a long year in front of them.

What our fans or some of us Colts fans have to understand. Is just because u may think the Colts is one of the sorriest teams in the league do not mean the organizations sees it that way. Or want to blow another season away to get high draft picks. The Colts have argurably the most NFL ready QB ever and u as a Colts fan wondering why they making moves to improve the team this yr. They have a chance to do something noone has ever done win a Superbowl with a Rookie qb at the position to go along with a rookie coach. With me watchin the Colts and knowing them i say they might have a good chance let's see them let this season unfold before u compare them to other organizations.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I wonder what the price would have been if there would have been zero fan fare about it prior to being done...

From what I've seen elsewhere the Colts first offer was a 6... Grigson's lucky he didn't hear a dialtone.

[Warhorse]

About 1.5 Mil and a good milking cow.

[deedub75]

Good post... and good find.

And I say that as someone who is not entirely comfortable with giving up the 2nd round pick.

But **NOT** because Davis isn't worth it. But because I'm not sold that the Dolphins would have demanded a two if we had been a little more patient. If we had waited until the season started, and Davis was a back-up for them instead of a starter, I think the price comes down.

I watched the HBO Hard Knocks last night. Ireland says we called them and our first offer was a 5 and a 6. He kept saying 'no' and we kept upping the offer. He tells their HC that when we were up to a 3 and a 6 he told Grigson that he wouldn't do the deal unless it was for a 2. And, eventually, we said 'yes'

The question becomes was getting Davis this early worth giving up a #2 rather than holding out and getting him, say, in a month for a lesser price? I think it's something we'll never know, but it's worth considering.

Either way, I'm at peace with the move. I think we've got to give the Irsay/Grigson/Pagano team major props for trying to get good NOW! After all, we could be Miami, who appear to be trying to finish with a top-5 pick and do a re-do all over again.

I wouldn't want to be a Dolphins player, or a Dolphins fan right now. They look to have a long year in front of them.

It's worth it if Davis is the player that Grigs really wanted. It they had waited, someone else could have come in and gotten him.

[Superman]

What our fans or some of us Colts fans have to understand. Is just because u may think the Colts is one of the sorriest teams in the league do not mean the organizations sees it that way. Or want to blow another season away to get high draft picks. The Colts have argurably the most NFL ready QB ever and u as a Colts fan wondering why they making moves to improve the team this yr. They have a chance to do something noone has ever done win a Superbowl with a Rookie qb at the position to go along with a rookie coach. With me watchin the Colts and knowing them i say they might have a good chance let's see them let this season unfold before u compare them to other organizations.

[MAC]

It's not that people are scared to trade second round picks, it's that they know that THE best way to build a successful football team is through the draft - particularly the higher picks.

This trade appears to be a worthwhile gamble because Davis is still young and because he has first round talent. We can't be quite sure what happened in Miami, but it is reasonable to expect him to be starting in Indy for at least as long as whomever we might have picked next year. Trades like this don't happen every day.

But to advocate randomly trading 2nd round picks would be just *ic. If Davis were five years older I would have hated this trade. If Davis refuses to resign, or becomes a locker room cancer, we will be cursing this trade. If the pick ends up being near the top of the round, it may well end up being a bad trade regardless of what Davis does. All trades are gambles, and should never be entered into lightly.

[oldunclemark]

this is for the people who treat draft picks like vintage baseball cards and are scared to trade them.

So just what is a 2nd round pick really worth? i found an article breaking down 2nd round picks over the past 4 years and breaking down the 2nd round draft classes up to date. and is Vontae Davis is warrant a 2nd round pick?(of course he is) but after looking at this article just gives me confirmation that Grigson did the right thing here. well here you go.

http://coltfollowing...k-really-worth/

I'd sewta giving up a No.1 pick for a starting player but not a No.2

If we are 8-8...that's about the 48Th pick in the draft...valubale....but not earthshaking

..and how old would a senior draftee be....22...What's Vontae Davis next year....25?

If we had waited until next April and Davis had played for Maimi this season..

,.,,and on draft day...we'd traded our No. 2 for a 24-year-old staring corner...no one would have problem with it...

there is a behavior question with V but there is a quality question with anyone you draft in the second round..

There are no sure things in Round 2..

A non-injured guy who started 15 of 16 games last year is a fairly sure thing.

[coltsdan]

One way I like to think about it is that the chances of there being a CB with Davis' ability in the 2nd round isn't very likely. However, one could argue that second round picks are more important. Gronk was a 2nd round pick, so was Bob Sanders. Andy Dalton was a 2nd rounder too. There is lots of talent in the 2nd round, so it's up to management and scouting to make an assessment as to what move will be best for the team. Personally, I don't like trading high round draft picks, but I still like the deal.

right, and i'm somewhat on the same bandwagon of not giving up high rd draft picks for current players. but, in your examples, and just your examples, we dont need a TE, and one could argue a safety, and argue the use of sanders, sorry, but yes i said it, and we already have a QB, go LUCK. so that would leave us with, in my eyes 2 positions that we would look to next year in the draft OL and CB. OL in the 1st rd, yes please. CB in the 2nd? someone posted on here a short time ago that the talent level really isnt there, especially when compared to Davis. so in saying we could potentially be getting a guy that we would be questionable be getting in rd2, nect year for a guy that has started and produced this year. i like it

[Steagles]

I'd rather have a proven vet than take any player (aside from the Lebron and Luck type prospects) based on potential.

[WSO]

At least the blue is gone...progress is being made

[Smitto]

What our fans or some of us Colts fans have to understand. Is just because u may think the Colts is one of the sorriest teams in the league do not mean the organizations sees it that way. Or want to blow another season away to get high draft picks. The Colts have argurably the most NFL ready QB ever and u as a Colts fan wondering why they making moves to improve the team this yr. They have a chance to do something noone has ever done win a Superbowl with a Rookie qb at the position to go along with a rookie coach. With me watchin the Colts and knowing them i say they might have a good chance let's see them let this season unfold before u compare them to other organizations.

Idk about the rookie qb part... big Ben won the Superbowl as a rookie

[TheMarine]

Big Ben won it his second year I believe. His rookie year he was 15-1 and lost to the team from NE in the playoffs. Next year I *think* they were 10-6 but stood on their D to get them through and win the SB

[jskinnz]

Idk about the rookie qb part... big Ben won the Superbowl as a rookie

He actually did not. His team won a bunch of games in his rookie year but they lost to the Pats in the playoffs. That is a commonly repeated misconception. The Steelers did win it all in his 2nd season.

[Smitto]

He actually did not. His team won a bunch of games in his rookie year but they lost to the Pats in the playoffs. That is a commonly repeated misconception. The Steelers did win it all in his 2nd season.

Oh yea forgot about that

[chad72]

Most GMs do not pony up a high pick for a top notch talent with suspect work ethic. They may do so for a top notch talent with top notch work ethic. Raiders gave up Randy Moss for a 4th rounder. Chargers gave up Cromartie for a 3rd rounder after the 2008 season, a year removed from his best year in 2007. QBs get a lot higher - Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst both got high 2nd round picks from the Cardinals (to Eagles) and Seahawks (to Chargers) respectively because they are involved in every snap. That is why I felt we paid too much and full price, based on all that had transpired in the market.

Ultimately, we paid full price for the production and talent portion of it without offsetting it by a round at least for the risk involved, IMO. I firmly believe Irsay's tweeting prior to the trade happening did not help Grigson's cause. It was almost like Grigson had to pull something off over the weekend to make his owner look good, too much pressure on a first year GM.

However, if our D is not elevated that much by it, and we pick in the top 10 next year in a CB deep draft, I still wont think it is a good trade. We have all seen how many first round projected picks slide and drop into the top of the 2nd round. Teams that build through the draft like the Packers, Steelers, Ravens - go ask them if they would have done this trade, I am confident everyone would say "no for the 2nd round pick price". Right now, it is not a good trade for me since Vontae Davis was not the only missing piece for our D and I hope Vontae Davis changes my mind, I would be glad to be proven wrong for the Colts' sake in this case.

[HtownColt]

Most GMs do not pony up a high pick for a top notch talent with suspect work ethic. They may do so for a top notch talent with top notch work ethic. Raiders gave up Randy Moss for a 4th rounder. Chargers gave up Cromartie for a 3rd rounder after the 2008 season, a year removed from his best year in 2007. QBs get a lot higher - Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst both got high 2nd round picks from the Cardinals (to Eagles) and Seahawks (to Chargers) respectively because they are involved in every snap. That is why I felt we paid too much and full price, based on all that had transpired in the market.

Ultimately, we paid full price for the production and talent portion of it without offsetting it by a round at least for the risk involved, IMO. I firmly believe Irsay's tweeting prior to the trade happening did not help Grigson's cause. It was almost like Grigson had to pull something off over the weekend to make his owner look good, too much pressure on a first year GM.

However, if our D is not elevated that much by it, and we pick in the top 10 next year in a CB deep draft, I still wont think it is a good trade. We have all seen how many first round projected picks slide and drop into the top of the 2nd round. Teams that build through the draft like the Packers, Steelers, Ravens - go ask them if they would have done this trade, I am confident everyone would say "no for the 2nd round pick price". Right now, it is not a good trade for me since Vontae Davis was not the only missing piece for our D and I hope Vontae Davis changes my mind, I would be glad to be proven wrong for the Colts' sake in this case.

what's wrong with paying full price for something that you NEED not want? say what you want but the production is there. and Scout.inc on espn insider has Vontae Davis the #17 cornerback in the league. and what cornerback in the draft in the 2nd round is better than Vontae(only cornerbacks that got a shot at being better than him is Amerson and Rhodes).According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter via his Twitter page, the Bolts have agreed to trade cornerback Antonio Cromartie to the Jets for a conditional 2011 third round pick. The pick will turn into a second rounder depending on Cromartie’s playing time and performance. being that he started the whole season it did turn into a second round pick(Round 2, Pick 29 Jonas Mouton, ILB Michigan)

[chad72]

what's wrong with paying full price for something that you NEED not want? say what you want but the production is there. and Scout.inc on espn insider has Vontae Davis the #17 cornerback in the league. and what cornerback in the draft in the 2nd round is better than Vontae(only cornerbacks that got a shot at being better than him is Amerson and Rhodes).According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter via his Twitter page, the Bolts have agreed to trade cornerback Antonio Cromartie to the Jets for a conditional 2011 third round pick. The pick will turn into a second rounder depending on Cromartie’s playing time and performance. being that he started the whole season it did turn into a second round pick(Round 2, Pick 29 Jonas Mouton, ILB Michigan)

I just felt like we did no bargaining whatsoever and showed our hand and desperation that is evident in this trade. Why couldn't we do a 2014 2nd round pick or a conditional 2013 pick at least, to protect ourselves? If Vontae stinks it up on the field or locker room (I understand it is a BIG IF), there is no safeguard for us, we pony up the 2013 2nd round pick regardless. That is my main problem with this. If Vontae Davis becomes a Pro Bowl CB AND we get to re-sign him after the next 2 years, that is the only way this would be worth it. For the Colts' sake, I hope it happens.

[HtownColt]

I just felt like we did no bargaining whatsoever and showed our hand and desperation that is evident in this trade. Why couldn't we do a 2014 2nd round pick or a conditional 2013 pick at least, to protect ourselves? If Vontae stinks it up on the field or locker room (I understand it is a BIG IF), there is no safeguard for us, we pony up the 2013 2nd round pick regardless. That is my main problem with this. If Vontae Davis becomes a Pro Bowl CB AND we get to re-sign him after the next 2 years, that is the only way this would be worth it. For the Colts' sake, I hope it happens.

as many cornerbacks we brought in you think the other 31 GMs didnt take notice that we were desperate in finding a corner so the GMs play their cards right like Ireland did you squeeze a 2nd round pick out of Grigson. full price for something that you need is not a bad thing

[Superman]

Idk about the rookie qb part... big Ben won the Superbowl as a rookie

Second year. But they won 15(?) games his rookie year.

[HtownColt]

Second year. But they won 15(?) games his rookie year.

he didnt start right away. but he went 13-0 in the regular season when he did get the nod starting

[chad72]

Second year. But they won 15(?) games his rookie year.

Yeah, first year as full time starter, he won it. But he was not a rookie when he was a full time starter in year 2.

Rookie no, first year as full time starter, yes.

Besides, the year he won the SB, the Steelers' record was worse. Plus, the zebras helped them a bit vs the Seahawks as well. They tried to help Peyton as well but that did not work with Vandershank finishing off the poetic justice not in the Colts favor.

[Superman]

Yeah, first year as full time starter, he won it. But he was not a rookie when he was a full time starter in year 2.

Rookie no, first year as full time starter, yes.

True. I think thirteen games in 2004 was plenty though.

[luckycharm]

Idk about the rookie qb part... big Ben won the Superbowl as a rookie

Actually no Big Ben did not win a Superbowl his rookie yr. He replace the Steelers starting qb in like week 2 after he got hurt for the season. The Steelers went 15-1 and lost to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the AFC Championship gm. And Patriots beat the Eagles in the Superbowl Bens rookie season. The next season which was Big Ben 2nd season he met Peyton Manning and the Colts in reg. Season on MNF and the Colts blew Steelers out! Later on in the playoffs theymet again, but this time the Steelers advance off a Vanderjerk miss field goal that gave them the gm. Steelers went on to beat the Seahawks in Superbowl XL in Detroit.So sorry to bust your bubble, but no starting rookie qb has ever won a Superbowl Luck can be the first tho.