Vegas Getting Torched (Colt's Line) By The Smart Money

[dw49]

Their refusal to recognize that this is not just a middle of the road good team is now torching their butt. 

 

Started with the -2.5 at Houston. Should have been around 4. You cab blame the betting public here too as the line only went to 3 .. I think anyway....

 

Then the opening line of 2.5 vs Cinn. It closed at 3.5 which is a significant move as any single point move that take you over 3 or 7 is very significant. This one was even more insane than the Houston line. No AJ  Green and 2 starting LB's out and they open -2.5 ? Sick in the head ... should have been at least 4.. 4.5.

 

So last night dumbo (the guy that sets the early vegas line) opens us at a pick (E) next week at Pittsburgh. Wow did they get toasted by the smart money. It's now sitting at 3. Not that they will go broke as they really limit betting the line that comes out Sunday night and are very quick to change before the wise guys actually nail them to the cross. 

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

How dare we not be considered the best team the NFL by every media source. How dare we!

[Warhawk]

I think you mean AJ Green, unless you're some kind of time-traveling wizard.

[dw49]

How dare we not be considered the best team the NFL by every media source. How dare we!

 

 

I understand that you're not from this country , but just to let you know ... the vegas betting line would not be considered a media source.

[dw49]

I think you mean AJ Green, unless you're some kind of time-traveling wizard.

 

 

No .. EG Green would be the time traveler. But thanks.. I fixed it.

[pacolts56]

I understand that you're not from this country , but just to let you know ... the vegas betting line would not be considered a media source.

You're right...they're more trustworthy than the media.

[BOTT]

Don't they set lines on the betting publics perception of teams? Don't hate vegas, hate dumb fans.

[Smurphy1]

Vegas does not try to predict the game. They try to predict the bets.

[lollygagger8]

People are mad about winning money from Vegas? 

 

[dw49]

Don't they set lines on the betting publics perception of teams? Don't hate vegas, hate dumb fans.

 

 

It's really just a few guys that set the opening line that comes out Sunday night and "public perception" is part of the formula. There are mistakes every week and that's why you see lines move like this Indy - Pitt line. It went from pick to Colts minus 3. It's not "John Q Public" that did that. It's the smart money that finds the  mistakes and scrambles to get as much money down as possible. What you would be talking about is if this line went back down to say .. 1 by game time. That would be the betting public taking Pittsburgh and driving the line down.

 

Like I said earlier , Vegas and offshore books really are quick to move off the early line when it appears it was a "bad" line. To give you an example , if you can find lazy bookies that are too stupid to move the early lines when they have actually moved , you can be paid handsomely to get bets down with them. My son is a professional poker player and is around all kinds of gambling and sports betting. There are sports betters looking to bet huge money on the opening lines and will give you a 10% "free roll" if you get bets off on that line. We're here in CA and there are many small bookies and you can find one that is "sleeping at the switch." Trouble is they soon realize they are being ripped off and often end up just not paying you. 

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

I understand that you're not from this country , but just to let you know ... the vegas betting line would not be considered a media source.

Sure it is

[SteelCityColt]

Sure it is

 

Umm a media source would normally be an entity from the media industry not from the betting one so no it's really not so your first comment is still a little out of whack. 

 

However the line is often quoted by media types in pre-game analysis. Stupid really as the line isn't a representation of who they predict will win the game but of the market on the game.

 

What I will say to the OP is normally the line is set by algorithms (closely guarded secret recipes!) so there's no personal bias in where a line gets put between two teams. I'm talking about the more legit firms here of course. Obviously whatever metrics they use haven't been putting the Colts out that far ahead. I imagine that might change soon

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

Umm a media source would normally be an entity from the media industry not from the betting one so no it's really not so your first comment is still a little out of whack.

However the line is often quoted by media types in pre-game analysis. Stupid really as the line isn't a representation of who they predict will win the game but of the market on the game.

What I will say to the OP is normally the line is set by algorithms (closely guarded secret recipes!) so there's no personal bias in where a line gets put between two teams. I'm talking about the more legit firms here of course. Obviously whatever metrics they use haven't been putting the Colts out that far ahead. I imagine that might change soon

It's still media by definition. As it inuences people's opinions and is widely looked at

[SteelCityColt]

It's still media by definition. As it inuences people's opinions and is widely looked at

 

No that makes it a source not a member of the Media.... 

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

No that makes it a source not a member of the media....

It is a media source. Look up the definition of media if you don't believe me.

[SteelCityColt]

It is a media source. Look up the definition of media if you don't believe me.

 

You've just contradicted yourself by saying it's a Media "source", it is a collection of information the Media uses in their articles hence a source. A Vegas bookmaker is not a member of the media, they do not write and publish articles in the recognised media outlets. Given that they don't by definition ignore or give recognition to teams as they pass no opinion on them via articles. 

 

If you mean the other definition of media then it's not really that either as it's not a exactly creative product but a collection of information. 

[Larry Horseman]

It is a media source. Look up the definition of media if you don't believe me.

 

You've just contradicted yourself by saying it's a Media "source", it is a collection of information the Media uses in their articles hence a source. A Vegas bookmaker is not a member of the media, they do not write and publish articles in the recognised media outlets. Given that they don't by definition ignore or give recognition to teams as they pass no opinion on them via articles. 

 

If you mean the other definition of media then it's not really that either as it's not a exactly creative product but a collection of information. 

 

Vegas betting lines/bookies/wise guys are a medium for communicating football info, which is then used by the media as one of their mediums. That said, in and of themselves, Vegas betting lines/bookies/wise guys are not media. A perfect example would be Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5 segment: CC is the media; betting is the medium he is using. 

[SteelCityColt]

Vegas betting lines/bookies/wise guys are a medium for communicating football info, which is then used by the media as one of their mediums. That said, in and of themselves, Vegas betting lines/bookies/wise guys are not media. A perfect example would be Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5 segment: CC is the media; betting is the medium he is using. 

 

At the risk of getting into another semantics argument the medium would be the communication method not the content? Hence media, which in itself it the plural of medium, i.e. the organs through which the information is communicated.

 

I need to get out more... 

[Buck Showalter]

Yesturday I got my palm read by a medium, after that I ate a steak, I ordered it medium rare, I also drank a medium ice tea, I then talked to an artist, I asked him what medium he preferred to work in, he told me I should look at his paintings on social media...

[SteelCityColt]

Yesturday I got my palm read by a medium, after that I ate a steak, I ordered it medium rare, I also drank a medium ice tea, I then talked to an artist, I asked him what medium he preferred to work in, he told me I should look at his paintings on social media...

 

This post wins. /topic

[Larry Horseman]

At the risk of getting into another semantics argument the medium would be the communication method not the content? Hence Media, which in itself it the plural of medium, i.e. the organs through which the information is communicated.

 

I need to get out more... 

 

Well, medium is a noun (person, place, or thing), and is the means by which something is communicated, so I suppose it could be either. I'm going to pass on getting any deeper into this rabbit hole! 

[SteelCityColt]

Well, medium is a noun (person, place, or thing), and is the means by which something is communicated, so I suppose it could be either. I'm going to pass on getting any deeper into this rabbit hole! 

 

I can drink to that  

[ruksak]

I say this with 100% honesty. I would have no compunction whatsoever if Vegas was stricken by a massive earthquake and literally sank into the god forsaken sands it was placed on. We're talking about a town that once (not long ago) could give life sentences to people for minor marijuana possession, yet the town was run by the Mob and you can still buy women there. 

 

To hell with Las Vegas and the misery they peddle. Burn the garbage pit to the ground, I say. 

 

PS: Gabriel is right. By definition, the Las Vegas betting line IS, in fact, a media source. 

 

Media;

 1 a plural of medium.

2.

(usually used with a plural verb) the means of communication, as radioand television, newspapers, and magazines, that reach or influencepeople widely:

The media are covering the speech tonight.

adjective

3.

pertaining to or concerned with such means:

a job in media research.

 

Medium;

 

1 a :  something in a middle position

 

b :  a middle condition or degree :  mean

2

:  a means of effecting or conveying something: as

 

a (1) :  a substance regarded as the means of transmission of a force or effect (2) :  a surrounding or enveloping substance (3) :  the tenuous material (as gas and dust) in space that exists outside large agglomerations of matter (as stars) <interstellar medium>

 

b plural usually media (1) :  a channel or system of communication, information, or entertainment — comparemass medium (2) :  a publication or broadcast that carries advertising (3) :  a mode of artistic expression or communication (4) :  something (as a magnetic disk) on which information may be stored

[ruksak]

It is a media source. Look up the definition of media if you don't believe me.

100% correct. 

 

The line of communique between the bookie and the better, is a media function/medium of communication. 

[SteelCityColt]

100% correct. 

 

The line of communique between the bookie and the better, is a media function/medium of communication. 

 

Except he wasn't using it in that context.... he was referring to it meaning the Media (let's use capitlisation) to indicate what I hope we all recognise as the traditional Media (Newspaper, Radio, TV etc.). In that context he's incorrect. 

 

You're correct the communication between a bookie and better can travel via many different media (non capitalised to indicate a means of communication/transmission).

[SteelCityColt]

At the sake of restoring some sanity to the insanity that I've started... can we all agree we're arguing semantics with the root cause being my pedantic nature? 

[ruksak]

At the sake of restoring some sanity to the insanity that I've started... can we all agree we're arguing semantics with the root cause being my pedantic nature? 

Semantics kill discussion, I'll agree to that. 

[John Dee]

Vegas does not set the line to "who THEY think will win"..  they set it to who "the PUBLIC" thinks will win / or cover..

 

They get the juice...    they win regardless.....      

Their refusal to recognize that this is not just a middle of the road good team is now torching their butt. 

 

Started with the -2.5 at Houston. Should have been around 4. You cab blame the betting public here too as the line only went to 3 .. I think anyway....

 

Then the opening line of 2.5 vs Cinn. It closed at 3.5 which is a significant move as any single point move that take you over 3 or 7 is very significant. This one was even more insane than the Houston line. No AJ  Green and 2 starting LB's out and they open -2.5 ? Sick in the head ... should have been at least 4.. 4.5.

 

So last night dumbo (the guy that sets the early vegas line) opens us at a pick (E) next week at Pittsburgh. Wow did they get toasted by the smart money. It's now sitting at 3. Not that they will go broke as they really limit betting the line that comes out Sunday night and are very quick to change before the wise guys actually nail them to the cross. 

[The Old Crow]

Don't get mad, just keep betting on the Colts and fill your pockets with greenbacks.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Vegas does not set the line to "who THEY think will win"..  they set it to who "the PUBLIC" thinks will win / or cover..

 

They get the juice...    they win regardless.....      

That is, well, was to a degree, quite true.  But since smart guys with powerful computers with sophisticated analytical programs have been developing exceptional results along with prediction machines and running thousands of sims, Vegas has had to shift some and account for that by employing their own analytics into their lines. To continue to have success today one must be able to deviate from the numbers their own analytical models are cranking out and finding some value in things the 'machines' aren't good at factoring in.

[dw49]

Umm a media source would normally be an entity from the media industry not from the betting one so no it's really not so your first comment is still a little out of whack. 

 

However the line is often quoted by media types in pre-game analysis. Stupid really as the line isn't a representation of who they predict will win the game but of the market on the game.

 

What I will say to the OP is normally the line is set by algorithms (closely guarded secret recipes!) so there's no personal bias in where a line gets put between two teams. I'm talking about the more legit firms here of course. Obviously whatever metrics they use haven't been putting the Colts out that far ahead. I imagine that might change soon

 

That's a good thought and you could be right on that. There is no where you can get all the info as to who and what goes into the opening line. I have heard that it's generally one or two guys that come out what the opening line. My thinking was that it was all no computer based info. But you could be correct and it may not have anything to do with anyone's personal assessment of the team's relative strengths. I would think that the popular teams that people shoe tendencies to bet , maybe Dallas a ways back and Denver (?) now , would get a little "kick." 

[dw49]

That is, well, was to a degree, quite true.  But since smart guys with powerful computers with sophisticated analytical programs have been developing exceptional results along with prediction machines and running thousands of sims, Vegas has had to shift some and account for that by employing their own analytics into their lines. To continue to have success today one must be able to deviate from the numbers their own analytical models are cranking out and finding some value in things the 'machines' aren't good at factoring in.

 

 

I do know one very connected poker player that made 10's of thousands getting action for some of these guys down. He did it for a couple years and then just ran out of places to get the bets down. I mean even the dumbest bookie will eventually smarten up when he takes 2-3 big bets Monday and soon see's the line has moved a big way against him. Plus he was taken to the cleaners as these guys just absolutely kill it. Bottom line is you get cut off in a hurry and pretty soon even the dumb bookies learn not to use opening lines foe more than a few hours.

[dw49]

Vegas does not set the line to "who THEY think will win"..  they set it to who "the PUBLIC" thinks will win / or cover..

 

They get the juice...    they win regardless.....      

[dw49]

 

Vegas does not set the line to "who THEY think will win"..  they set it to who "the PUBLIC" thinks will win / or cover..

 

They get the juice...    they win regardless.....      

 

 

 

That's really not how it works. Vegas gets beat on many games and bad lines will kill them. Take the Colt - Cinn game just this week. They open at 2.5 and all the smart money goes on the Colts. The game ultimately ends at 3.5. If the Colts had won by a FG , the bookmakers that took a lot of action at that "bad " line of 2.5 lose all the money that was pounded on the colts. They break even on those that bet at 3 and owe all the money that was bet on Cinn +3.5. If it's a Super Bowl , what you are saying probably has a bit of truth to it. They probably will try to figure out which way the public will tilt with and move the line accordingly. But they really don't win every game because they have the 10% vig.