AFC South and AFC Playoff picture/ Remaining Schedules (MERGE) Updated OP + on page 61 - post week 17. AFC Clinching Scenarios page 61

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Minshew has played good in several games this year and was actually arguably great on Sunday

 

Minshew was objectively awful on Sunday.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, Superman said:

 

Minshew was objectively awful on Sunday.

I think that is too harsh. Yes he made a couple mistakes but someone had to get the ball to Pierce and Pittman to get them 100 yards. He can’t through when needed.

[MB-ColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think that is too harsh. Yes he made a couple mistakes but someone had to get the ball to Pierce and Pittman to get them 100 yards. He can’t through when needed.

Yeah, I tend agree more with you here.  His lows weren't as low as his highs were as high. I can't really say he was awful even when he was bad.

 

 

Well...maybe the 3rd down slide was pretty bad, but still not awful. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Minshew was objectively awful on Sunday.

I watched the whole game; he was not awful. One of your worst takes ever. His stats, his overall play, and leading a game winning TD drive prove you way wrong. He completed 62% of his passes and even threw the deep ball good and he had no run game. Moss 19 carries for 51 yards. Minshew is a huge reason why we won. We could not run the ball at all.

[ADnum1]

Minshew is the Rodney Dangerfield of this board.

 

No respect !!

 

[tweezy32]

52 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

A high ankle sprain is bad. Average recovery time for that injury is 6 to 8 weeks. There are only 5 games left. We will see.

maybe for people who are soft. People sit out for the littlest things.  

[JediXMan]

The weather this Sunday is going to be nasty in Cincy. That might benefit us has they have talent WRs. 

[Superman]

37 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I think that is too harsh. Yes he made a couple mistakes but someone had to get the ball to Pierce and Pittman to get them 100 yards. He can’t through when needed.

 

27 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I watched the whole game; he was not awful. One of your worst takes ever. His stats, his overall play, and leading a game winning TD drive prove you way wrong. He completed 62% of his passes and even threw the deep ball good and he had no run game. Moss 19 carries for 51 yards. Minshew is a huge reason why we won. We could not run the ball at all.

 

I give him credit for not falling apart. That's part of his allure, the swagger and confidence with which he plays and carries himself, even if it's mostly unearned. He finally hit a couple of passes down the field.

 

But he missed more deep shots than he made, not to mention the missed receivers that he didn't even target. He missed layup throws also. A big part of the reason we struggle to run is because defenses don't respect our ability to pass effectively. Minshew consistently runs into pressure, takes bad sacks, on one of those he turned the ball over deep in the red zone... And he gave the ball away on a conversion play that resulted in a four point swing, in a road overtime game, that we were otherwise pretty well in control of. That one mistake nearly cost us the game. But I guess all is forgiven because we managed to get the win?

 

I appreciate Minshew as a backup QB. He is better than most backups. But he has serious limitations, and they show up every week. This is not "hate." It's objective analysis, and is not based on the outcome of the game.

 

Edit: By the way, in contrast, Browning hit receivers at all levels, in the rhythm of the offense. He avoided unnecessary pressure, didn't hold the ball, didn't run into trouble, was accurate and on time, threatened the defense down the field, and was productive from start to finish. It's one game, he was decent last week, I have no idea what he'll do moving forward, and I'm not arguing that he is better than Minshew or anyone else. But he absolutely was better than Minshew this week.

[runthepost]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

A high ankle sprain is bad. Average recovery time for that injury is 6 to 8 weeks. There are only 5 games left. We will see.

If he gets the same drugs as Mahomes got he’ll miss no time 

[JediXMan]

4 minutes ago, runthepost said:

If he gets the same drugs as Mahomes got he’ll miss no time 

 

 

[chad72]

3 minutes ago, runthepost said:

If he gets the same drugs as Mahomes got he’ll miss no time 

 

I can see that. However, Mahomes just had to go 2 more games. TLaw far more games.

 

If I am them, I will see if they can beat the Browns without TLaw. Then, I get him ready for the Ravens game and moving forward. Last game, if I have clinched the division, sit him and rest again.

[Superman]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

I can see that. However, Mahomes just had to go 2 more games. TLaw far more games.

 

If I am them, I will see if they can beat the Browns without TLaw. Then, I get him ready for the Ravens game and moving forward. Last game, if I have clinched the division, sit him and rest again.

 

That Lawrence injury was gruesome. He couldn't put weight on it last night. I think he'll be out, even if he doesn't need surgery. 

[chad72]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That Lawrence injury was gruesome. He couldn't put weight on it last night. I think he'll be out, even if he doesn't need surgery. 

 

TLaw is in Year 3. They have to think long term than short term. C J Beathard, like any backup QB, needs plenty of help from the D and running game. I am thinking that is what they have to count on and take their chances. He is not seasoned like Minshew but Doug Pederson changed the whole offense from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles for a SB run. So, if there is anyone who can adapt well, Doug has been there before. Heck, he might even get Nick Foles back, I am thinking, lol  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

I give him credit for not falling apart. That's part of his allure, the swagger and confidence with which he plays and carries himself, even if it's mostly unearned. He finally hit a couple of passes down the field.

 

But he missed more deep shots than he made, not to mention the missed receivers that he didn't even target. He missed layup throws also. A big part of the reason we struggle to run is because defenses don't respect our ability to pass effectively. Minshew consistently runs into pressure, takes bad sacks, on one of those he turned the ball over deep in the red zone... And he gave the ball away on a conversion play that resulted in a four point swing, in a road overtime game, that we were otherwise pretty well in control of. That one mistake nearly cost us the game. But I guess all is forgiven because we managed to get the win?

 

I appreciate Minshew as a backup QB. He is better than most backups. But he has serious limitations, and they show up every week. This is not "hate." It's objective analysis, and is not based on the outcome of the game.

 

Edit: By the way, in contrast, Browning hit receivers at all levels, in the rhythm of the offense. He avoided unnecessary pressure, didn't hold the ball, didn't run into trouble, was accurate and on time, threatened the defense down the field, and was productive from start to finish. It's one game, he was decent last week, I have no idea what he'll do moving forward, and I'm not arguing that he is better than Minshew or anyone else. But he absolutely was better than Minshew this week.

Yep. One thing he is good at is just moving on to the next play. Aren’t many teams still winning with a backup. Especially this year with all the QB injuries.

[dw49]

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

I give him credit for not falling apart. That's part of his allure, the swagger and confidence with which he plays and carries himself, even if it's mostly unearned. He finally hit a couple of passes down the field.

 

But he missed more deep shots than he made, not to mention the missed receivers that he didn't even target. He missed layup throws also. A big part of the reason we struggle to run is because defenses don't respect our ability to pass effectively. Minshew consistently runs into pressure, takes bad sacks, on one of those he turned the ball over deep in the red zone... And he gave the ball away on a conversion play that resulted in a four point swing, in a road overtime game, that we were otherwise pretty well in control of. That one mistake nearly cost us the game. But I guess all is forgiven because we managed to get the win?

 

I appreciate Minshew as a backup QB. He is better than most backups. But he has serious limitations, and they show up every week. This is not "hate." It's objective analysis, and is not based on the outcome of the game.

 

Edit: By the way, in contrast, Browning hit receivers at all levels, in the rhythm of the offense. He avoided unnecessary pressure, didn't hold the ball, didn't run into trouble, was accurate and on time, threatened the defense down the field, and was productive from start to finish. It's one game, he was decent last week, I have no idea what he'll do moving forward, and I'm not arguing that he is better than Minshew or anyone else. But he absolutely was better than Minshew this week.

 

I spent most of the game feeling that Minshew was playing terribly. He was terrible in the red zone . Missed an easy TD throw to Pierce He did come through at the end and is a gamer . What won the game was consecutive blocked punts and we STILL would have lost if not for a missed extra point. He made a great and a very nice throw in the overtime but that really doesn't wipe out 4 quarters of bad play. 

This  gives me hope that with Richardson and Flowers back next year , this team might very well be good. Head coach is a huge upgrade too. Negative side is this division will be tough next year and maybe the 7-5 record is mostly the result of an easy schedule.

[1959Colts]

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

 

 

 

Edit: By the way, in contrast, Browning hit receivers at all levels, in the rhythm of the offense. He avoided unnecessary pressure, didn't hold the ball, didn't run into trouble, was accurate and on time, threatened the defense down the field, and was productive from start to finish. It's one game, he was decent last week, I have no idea what he'll do moving forward, and I'm not arguing that he is better than Minshew or anyone else. But he absolutely was better than Minshew this week.

As I was watching Browning last night, he looked to me, how Brock Purdy did last year coming in

[1959Colts]

8 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

This  gives me hope that with Richardson and Flowers back next year , this team might very well be good. Head coach is a huge upgrade too. Negative side is this division will be tough next year and maybe the 7-5 record is mostly the result of an easy schedule.

Right, and if Jelani Woods comes back? ...and hopefully, Evan Hull makes a full recovery as well.

[dw49]

2 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

Right, and if Jelani Woods comes back? ...and hopefully, Evan Hull makes a full recovery as well.

Plus Nick Cross is coming on and I think Daniel Scott will be a nice depth piece at safety. 

[Superman]

26 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

TLaw is in Year 3. They have to think long term than short term. C J Beathard, like any backup QB, needs plenty of help from the D and running game. I am thinking that is what they have to count on and take their chances. He is not seasoned like Minshew but Doug Pederson changed the whole offense from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles for a SB run. So, if there is anyone who can adapt well, Doug has been there before. Heck, he might even get Nick Foles back, I am thinking, lol  

 

Yeah, they'll be cautious with Lawrence, as they should. I just don't know how much choice they'll have, especially for the next couple of weeks. He probably got lucky to not have torn or broken something, but I think he's still going to be out for a bit.

[dw49]

12 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

As I was watching Browning last night, he looked to me, how Brock Purdy did last year coming in

 

If I didn't love the Colts , I would place a max bet on the Bengals + 1. Can't believe we are not getting 3 .. 3.5. Bengals are home and playing for their season. A loss pretty much ends their chances , while the Colts stay in contention , even with a loss.

[#12.]

17 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

If I didn't love the Colts , I would place a max bet on the Bengals + 1. Can't believe we are not getting 3 .. 3.5. Bengals are home and playing for their season. A loss pretty much ends their chances , while the Colts stay in contention , even with a loss.

 

Last night might have been Browning's one moment.  He could come out Sunday and be complete garbage.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

Last night might have been Browning's one moment.  He could come out Sunday and be complete garbage.  

I am still shocked how bad the jags defense looked. Even if Lawrence had not got hurt jags still might of lost that game.

[#12.]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I am still shocked how bad the jags defense looked. Even if Lawrence had not got hurt jags still might of lost that game.

 

Hopefully, we rattle Browning some.

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I am still shocked how bad the jags defense looked. Even if Lawrence had not got hurt jags still might of lost that game.

Jags defense couldn’t get pressure on Browning. He’s in for a rough day this Sunday at home.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

This seems to indicate colts are 6th and not 7th. It does give them a little wiggle room if it’s the case.

 

 

[w87r]

44 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

This seems to indicate colts are 6th and not 7th. It does give them a little wiggle room if it’s the case.

 

 

Yeah, that's been my beef with the H2H(ESPN argument)

 

It should only be applicable if all teams have played each other and pending those results.

 

 

At the end of the day whether we are 6 or 7 right now, is inconsequential.

[w87r]

On 11/19/2023 at 8:07 PM, w87r said:

Three or More Clubs

 

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after a third club or other clubs are eliminated, the tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of the applicable two-club format.)

 

Apply the division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two wild card participants.

 

1. Head-to-head sweep (applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others)

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four

4. Strength of victory

5. Strength of schedule

6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed

7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed

8. Best net points in conference games

9. Best net points in all games

10. Best net touchdowns in all games

11. Coin toss

 

When the first wild card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second wild card (i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2). In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tiebreaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a wild card berth.

You don't even need to get down to the H2H portion of the tie breaker rules.

 

Clearly the first thing done is, the divisional tie breaker eliminating the Browns and Texans from the tie breaker scenario.

 

Leaving Colts and Steelers to battle for #5#6 seed, appears Steelers have better record against common opponents right now.(#3 tie breaker)

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, w87r said:

Yeah, that's been my beef with the H2H(ESPN argument)

 

It should only be applicable if all teams have played each other and pending those results.

 

 

At the end of the day whether we are 6 or 7 right now, is inconsequential.

It does give them a little extra wiggle room if they are 6th.  
 

There could be a 3 way tie in the division after Sunday with jags having to play Baltimore the following week. Colts need browns to lose so it sucks they are playing jags. Weather in Cleveland is supposed to be bad Sunday along with the bengals game. Both teams could be playing in bad weather. Colts  Oline I think it’s better but bengals can run the ball.

[w87r]

Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It does give them a little extra wiggle room if they are 6th.  
 

There could be a 3 way tie in the division after Sunday with jags having to play Baltimore the following week. Colts need browns to lose so it sucks they are playing jags. Weather in Cleveland is supposed to be bad Sunday along with the bengals game. Both teams could be playing in bad weather. Colts  Oline I think it’s better but bengals can run the ball.

It doesn't matter right now.

 

All that matters is we keep winning. Finish at least 3-2, hopefully 4-1 or 5-0. I think all those options get us in. (4-1, 5-0 100%)

 

I could care less about being the #6 or #7 seed right now.

 

All I care about is, we are top 7 after week 18. I feel good about it at the moment.

 

 

Every game will be a test and a tough one though. After all we are playing with a high peak/low valley backup QB. That goes on those ups and downs too frequently.

 

 

He needs to find a happy medium.

[w87r]

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/mike-mcdaniel-on-dolphins-as-afc-no-1-seed-today-call-me-when-its-a-13-game-season

 

 

Mike McDaniels shares my sentiments.

 

Snippet:

Quote

Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel isn’t interested in what would happen if the playoffs started today.

 

As of this moment, the Dolphins are the No. 1 seed in the NFL playoff picture. But when asked how it feels to be atop the AFC through 13 games, McDaniel scoffed.

 

“Call me when it’s a 13-game season,” McDaniel said.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[dw49]

2 hours ago, #12. said:

 

Last night might have been Browning's one moment.  He could come out Sunday and be complete garbage.  

 

True and Las Vegas seems to be saying there's a very good chance of that happening. It helps that we get our NT back and would be great if Brents returned also.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Now the bengals passing on jags makes sense . Jags are 30th in pass defense. They also are near bottom in sacks.

[csmopar]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-playoff-picture-bubble-teams-i-love-like-loathe

[Superman]

1 hour ago, w87r said:

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/mike-mcdaniel-on-dolphins-as-afc-no-1-seed-today-call-me-when-its-a-13-game-season

 

 

Mike McDaniels shares my sentiments.

 

Snippet:

 

 

So do I. It's fun to think about the standings, but I don't care about the difference between 6th and 7th at this point of the season.

[OLD FAN MAN]

2 hours ago, w87r said:

Yeah, that's been my beef with the H2H(ESPN argument)

 

It should only be applicable if all teams have played each other and pending those results.

 

 

At the end of the day whether we are 6 or 7 right now, is inconsequential.

we still have to win most games to make it, after jax lost their qb  texans now should win our division 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If Browns truly are in 7th if colts win Sunday it’s actually ok if Browns win the game. Actually it would be beneficial. First up need to win the game.

[w87r]

17 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

If Browns truly are in 7th if colts win Sunday it’s actually ok if Browns win the game. Actually it would be beneficial. First up need to win the game.

It's ok, either way.

 

If Browns win and we win we are tied with Jags, which we all know isn't good enough, but will have 4 games to play 1 game better.

 

If Jags win, and we win, we move up a game on a team that has a H2H that might eventually play out in their favor.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

NFL official twitter had this tweet and they indeed have colts at 6.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

There is some good news about pats and Steelers Thursday night. It should be a low scoring game allowing pats to stay in the game.  Pats defense is good still only allows 6 points to chargers.