What Are Acceptable Richardson results in yards, completion %, TDs, INTs and rushing yds this season?

[FanFromtheWasteland]

Just as long as TD's outnumber INT'S I will be fine with what he does.......this year

[BlackTiger]

Its hard to put a number on it now, his receivers and line didnt help as much as they should have in pre season.

 

He needs to limit interceptions and fumbles, we all know he has the talent to get yards.  TDs will come

[throwing BBZ]

13 hours ago, AKB said:

feels like we are gonna be in a lot of high-scoring games, and I don't know if that's gonna be good for Richardson or not. 

 

to me, it seems like a detriment. part of his success is gonna depend on the defense pausing for read action. 

 

How often is a defense gonna fall for read action when it's 3rd and 10 or longer? 

 

Just think a bad defense might be a speed bump to his development 

 

 

 

 That will be so fun to watch. As long as our blocking holds up long enough for our receivers to get the D deep enough and spread out, like Fields, he is going to run for 1st downs on 3rd and 10 pretty often.

 And how good will we be in the short yardage stack that Philly was exceptionally good at? I expect to find out early and often.

 

 I would want 180 ypg passing 

 1.5 td passes per game

 40 yds rushing per  Although I expect a 1000 yd season.

 I'll take the under on 14 int in a 16 game season.

 

[luv_pony_express]

4 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Anything over 15 touchdowns.

Anything less than 20 interceptions.

Anything over a 50% completion. 

Anything over 2,000 yards. 

 

This is closer to where I'm at than most posts here.  I'd probably bump it to 2500 yards (that's an average of only about 150 ypg).  But, other than that, I think these benchmarks make sense.

 

But I also agree with whoever said that that most important thing will be his improvement.

[gspdx]

I'm in the "not concerned about numbers" camp.  I want to see growth and improvement over the year.   Accuracy, decision-making, command of the offense.  Really excited to see how he progresses.

[That Guy]

I'm hoping for:

 

Total TDs > Total Turnovers

250 ypg combined passing and rushing

Over 50% 3rd Down Conversion Rate

[AKB]

15 minutes ago, That Guy said:

I'm hoping for:

 

Total TDs > Total Turnovers

250 ypg combined passing and rushing

Over 50% 3rd Down Conversion Rate

reasonable

[Trace Pyott]

3400 yds

21td

17 int 

400 rushing yard. 

[Scott Pennock]

Lead us to a better record than 4-12-1 is the only stat I will care about this year and probably his 2nd year too.

 

By year three ask this question again and lets see if he has progressed to Josh Allen type of plat or Jamarcus Russell type of play......

 

BUT, and I mean BUT....................if we are gonna suck, lets suck bad enough to draft Harrison Jr. to pair with him! LOL I'm mostly kidding!

[Scott Pennock]

Now when I play this Madden Season he's likely going to average 300 passing yards a game and average 60 rushing yards a game and be the first QB with 5000 yards passing and 1000 yards rushing in the same season.............lol

 

[NFLfan]

19 hours ago, RollerColt said:

Some stats for the junkies on rookie years. Use them how you see fit: 

 

Jalen Hurts - 2020

Games: 15

Pass Yards: 1,061

Rush Yards: 354

Comp Pct: 52%

Pass TDs: 6

Ints: 4

Rush TDs: 3

Fumbles: 6

 

Justin Herbert - 2020

Games: 15

Pass Yards: 4,336

Rush Yards: 234

Comp Pct: 66.6%

Pass TDs: 31

Ints: 10

Rush TDs: 5

Fumbles: 4

 

Cam Newton - 2011

Games: 16

Pass Yards: 4,051

Rush Yards: 706

Comp Pct: 60%

Pass TDs: 21

Ints: 17

Rush TDs: 14

Fumbles: 2

 

Lamar Jackson - 2018

Games: 16

Pass Yards: 1,201

Rush Yards: 695

Comp Pct: 58.25

Pass TDs: 6

Ints: 3

Rush TDs: 5

Fumbles: 10

 

Josh Allen - 2018

Games: 12

Pass Yards: 2,074

Rush Yards: 631

Comp Pct: 52.8%

Pass TDs: 10

Ints: 12

Rush TDs: 8

Fumbles: 5

 

 

Thanks for the stats. Who do you think is most like AR? Allen? Cam maybe?

 

[NFLfan]

22 hours ago, stitches said:

I guess our biggest differences in expectations are how much he will be passing and TD/INT ratio.

 

That is what I wonder. How much will he be passing? That should influence the stats. @RollerColt posted some stats that show the high variability in rookie QB stats, which is expected. I looked at Kyler Murray's stats. He threw an average of 38.87 times per game. That seems like a lot for a rookie, but that gives many opportunities to add passing yards. Will AR have that many chances to pass per game?

 

As I read through the thread, I thought that fans' expectations were too high. But maybe they aren't.

 

Kyler Murray's rookie year:

 

16 games

349 completions of 542 passes (average of 38.87 passes per game)

64.4%

3722 passing yards

20 TD

12 INT

 

Rushing

544 yards

4 TD

 

[RollerColt]

1 hour ago, NFLfan said:

 

Thanks for the stats. Who do you think is most like AR? Allen? Cam maybe?

 

I think somewhere in the middle of Allen and Newton. Cam was an unstoppable force and the defacto #1 QB going into the NFL. I think Anthony has some work to do before he even reaches that level. 

[stitches]

2 hours ago, NFLfan said:

 

That is what I wonder. How much will he be passing? That should influence the stats. @RollerColt posted some stats that show the high variability in rookie QB stats, which is expected. I looked at Kyler Murray's stats. He threw an average of 38.87 times per game. That seems like a lot for a rookie, but that gives many opportunities to add passing yards. Will AR have that many chances to pass per game?

 

As I read through the thread, I thought that fans' expectations were too high. But maybe they aren't.

 

Kyler Murray's rookie year:

 

16 games

349 completions of 542 passes (average of 38.87 passes per game)

64.4%

3722 passing yards

20 TD

12 INT

 

Rushing

544 yards

4 TD

 

It's really hard to project IMO.

 

I would expect our offense to closely mirror what Steichen did with Hurts in Philly. It's interesting that both in 2021 and 2022 they had very similar pass% - 50.26% and 50.13%. 

 

Now... there is one big problem with that assumption - Philly was a winning team and played with the lead in a lot of those games, which increases artificially the run %. But still... I would expect us to be relatively high % running team(probably 47-50% run) with the QB being big part of the running game. Hurts passed 30 times a game in 2021 and 31 times a game in 2022. The tricky part of projecting the pure number for Richardson comes from the difference in quality of both the offenses and the defenses of the Colts and the Eagles. Meaning - their defense was better than ours is likely to be, thus they were stopping drives quicker on D and their offense was better than ours is likely to be so they extended drives more than we will.

 

So... in general the number will be depressed for us IMO. Just how bad are we going to be? Chicago bad from last year? They had 22 attempts per game... (~50 total offensive snaps per game) or are we going to be like Philly(31 attempts, or about 62 total offensive snaps per game). Lets say we are somewhere in between. Lets say we get 27 passing attempts per game. 

 

Hurts had about 12 yards per completion in both 2021 and 2022. Lets assume Richardson will have similar number in similar offense(although I wouldn't surprised if it was lower because our offensive weapons are tiers below Eagles). If we assume he completes about 55% of his attempts... 27*0.55*12 =~ 178 yards per game. Extrapolate over 17 games... and you get about 3000 yards. 

 

If you think he will be lower than 12 yards per completion ... lets say 11(which is the average for the league)...  it goes down to about 2780.. 

 

So yeah... it's not easy to project. Some of it will depend on how good the team is in general. Some of it will depend on how good our weapons are. And of course - a ton of it will depend on Richardson himself. 

 

About his running game - I expect him to be one of the most devastating rushing weapons in the league, especially in short yardage and goal line situations. That's why I wrote in my expectations that I expect 800 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. 

 

I guess we will see ... 

[NFLfan]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

It's really hard to project IMO.

 

I would expect our offense to closely mirror what Steichen did with Hurts in Philly. It's interesting that both in 2021 and 2022 they had very similar pass% - 50.26% and 50.13%. 

 

Now... there is one big problem with that assumption - Philly was a winning team and played with the lead in a lot of those games, which increases artificially the run %. But still... I would expect us to be relatively high % running team(probably 47-50% run) with the QB being big part of the running game. Hurts passed 30 times a game in 2021 and 31 times a game in 2022. The tricky part of projecting the pure number for Richardson comes from the difference in quality of both the offenses and the defenses of the Colts and the Eagles. Meaning - their defense was better than ours is likely to be, thus they were stopping drives quicker on D and their offense was better than ours is likely to be so they extended drives more than we will.

 

So... in general the number will be depressed for us IMO. Just how bad are we going to be? Chicago bad from last year? They had 22 attempts per game... (~50 total offensive snaps per game) or are we going to be like Philly(31 attempts, or about 62 total offensive snaps per game). Lets say we are somewhere in between. Lets say we get 27 passing attempts per game. 

 

Hurts had about 12 yards per completion in both 2021 and 2022. Lets assume Richardson will have similar number in similar offense(although I wouldn't surprised if it was lower because our offensive weapons are tiers below Eagles). If we assume he completes about 55% of his attempts... 27*0.55*12 =~ 178 yards per game. Extrapolate over 17 games... and you get about 3000 yards. 

 

If you think he will be lower than 12 yards per completion ... lets say 11(which is the average for the league)...  it goes down to about 2780.. 

 

So yeah... it's not easy to project. Some of it will depend on how good the team is in general. Some of it will depend on how good our weapons are. And of course - a ton of it will depend on Richardson himself. 

 

About his running game - I expect him to be one of the most devastating rushing weapons in the league, especially in short yardage and goal line situations. That's why I wrote in my expectations that I expect 800 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. 

 

I guess we will see ... 

 

Well put. That is why I think projecting stats is not a fair way to look at it. There are too many variables that factor into stats. I think how Richardson plays is a lot more important than stats -- does he make good decisions, is he avoiding mistakes he made earlier, does he seem poised or lost, how well is he playing with teammates, can he read defenses, etc.

 

I made an example of Kyler Murray. If Mike Zimmer was his head coach he would have passed a lot fewer times, resulting in fewer passing yards and TDs.

 

Btw, I know Steicken worked with Herbert. Do you know if he was his QB coach or OC?

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, NFLfan said:

 

Well put. That is why I think projecting stats is not a fair way to look at it. There are too many variables that factor into stats. I think how Richardson plays is a lot more important than stats -- does he make good decisions, is he avoiding mistakes he made earlier, does he seem poised or lost, how well is he playing with teammates, can he read defenses, etc.

 

I made an example of Kyler Murray. If Mike Zimmer was his head coach he would have passed a lot fewer times, resulting in fewer passing yards and TDs.

 

Btw, I know Steicken worked with Herbert. Do you know if he was his QB coach or OC?

I think he was OC and playcaller for Herbert too... agreed on Richardson being the biggest and most important piece. Most of it will depends on him at the end of the day. 

[CoachLite]

I will accept any numbers that Richardson provides. I expect that his numbers will improve dramatically by the end of the season. I think the important thing is that the Colts learn to play and have fun. Winning is more fun than losing, but winning ugly is not as much fun as a smooth, easy win.

[MikeCurtis]

I would be very happy with a completion percentage of 60% or better,  AND more TDs vs INTS over the last half of the season

 

This would be HUGE growth over his last season in College

 

 

Will we be in the Super Bowl this year...... Not a chance (IMHO)

 

Can we take a run at a playoff spot NEXT year......  I think so......  If AR5 can keep getting better 

 

We just have to be patient with the kid, and protect him from getting hit every play

 

[Stephen]

30 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I would be very happy with a completion percentage of 60% or better,  AND more TDs vs INTS over the last half of the season

 

This would be HUGE growth over his last season in College

 

 

Will we be in the Super Bowl this year...... Not a chance (IMHO)

 

Can we take a run at a playoff spot NEXT year......  I think so......  If AR5 can keep getting better 

 

We just have to be patient with the kid, and protect him from getting hit every play

 

Luck completed 54 percent  of his passes his rookie year along with 23 tds and 18 ints. I'm hoping Richardson  can atleast  match that while being clutch in key moments.

[masterlock]

On 9/1/2023 at 1:50 AM, stitches said:

2800 passing yards... 55% completion 15TD/17INT

800 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs

Bump the passing TDs up to 22-23 and that sounds about right. 

[MikeCurtis]

4 hours ago, Stephen said:

Luck completed 54 percent  of his passes his rookie year along with 23 tds and 18 ints. I'm hoping Richardson  can atleast  match that while being clutch in key moments.

I truly hope so too.

 

Luck was much more of a finished product at this stage.

 

Not saying it CANT happen, but patience will be the key for this kid

[Mighty Blue]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:11 PM, SLILLINGTON10 said:

Whatever he needs to do to win OROY and shut a bunch of people up. 

[Jason_]

On 9/2/2023 at 4:04 AM, NFLfan said:

 

Thanks for the stats. Who do you think is most like AR? Allen? Cam maybe?

 

 

At this point in his career I think it would be hurts. 

[Mighty Blue]

Ha Ha…this one is easy!

 

Just do more in everything we want compared to the past two starting QBs

 

This is fun!

 

Mighty Blue

 

[craigerb]

The answer: anything better than Minshew and Ehlinger.

[OLD FAN MAN]

dont be hard on our rookie qb, ballard has provided him with below average receivers, expect dropped passes and receivers not getting open, this is not the qbs fault it rests on ballard.

[EasyE]

I think showing more improvement each game % is the most important. Win % is a plus. Go AR!!

[Solid84]

Cynthia Frelund just did projected season stats for Bryce Young, CJ Stroud and AR:

 

Projected rookie QB stats

 

AR

3171 Pass yards 

19 Pass TDs

11 Ints

802 Rush yards

5 Rush TD

 

BY

3459 Pass yards

24 Pass TDs

11 Ints

272 Rush yards

1 Rush TD - Maybe

 

CJ

3399 Pass yards

22 Pass TDs

13 Ints

297 Rush yards

1 Rush TD