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Our Defense is Likely Way Overrated on this Board


Nickster

End of Season D Ranks  

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  1. 1. Where do you think Colts Defense will rank at the end of the season in ppg?



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They have been decent against terrible offensive teams, currently 13th in ppg given up and 6th in total yards given up.  

 

With the exception of KC, who was limited largely because of it's kicking woes that week, we have faced a godawful slate of offenses. The next 5 weeks will indicate if this team is much better than average defensively.  I doubt it.  

 

I don't think a team could play worse offenses overall than we have to this point. 

 

We had Texans, Jags 2X, Titans 2X, Broncs, Wash, and Pats.  

 

Where do you think we will rank at years end?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

If you do not believe the Colts have a top 5 NFL defense, then we do not watch football the same way. 

 

It is okay. You can have an opinion... 

 

I believe this defense is on its way to becoming a premiere NFL defense... 

I'll try to remember to look this up in 5 weeks. 


I think we are probably a top 15 type D.  It's hard to underscore how bad the offenses we've played are this year.  

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4 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I'll try to remember to look this up in 5 weeks. 


I think we are probably a top 15 type D.  It's hard to underscore how bad the offenses we've played are this year.  

 

Feel free... :)

 

I see what my eyes tell me. 

 

The years Colts offense has put the Colts defense in very bad spots. An average defense would have surrendered historic numbers up to this point. 

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3 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Feel free... :)

 

I see what my eyes tell me. 

 

The years Colts offense has put the Colts defense in very bad spots. An average defense would have surrendered historic numbers up to this point. 

 

We shall see.  Our SOS v. Offenses has been anemic.

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Its an overrated defense that will end ranked higher than it actually is.  Its been playing all of these lousy offenses in games where that lousy offense didn't even have to try that hard to win the game.   It simply can't drop into the ranking it deserves with only 8 games left.  No offense is going to have to try very hard for their team to win the game.

 

Its a bottom 3rd defense that will end up being ranked 16-20.  

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5 minutes ago, SLILLINGTON10 said:

Honestly too hard to really evaluate the defense with how bad the offense has been and the terrible field position it has given the defense to work with consistently.  Again going 0-14 on third downs is going to keep your defense on the field way longer than they should be. 

 

Agree, but a lot of that is offset by horrendous offenses we've been facing.

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Its actually a bottom 5 defense, but the season's end ranking will be a little higher than that because it simply can't drop THAT far from where its ranked now......after playing all of these lousy offenses in games where that lousy offense didn't even have to try that hard to win the game.

I don't think you are right about bottom 5 in rankings.   We have given up the 5th fewest yds in the league this year. 

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7 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Agree, but a lot of that is offset by horrendous offenses we've been facing.

I don't think you are right about bottom 5 in rankings.   We have given up the 5th fewest yds in the league this year. 

That was a typo on my part....banged out a sentence before I was ready.  I meant bottom 3rd.  Fixed it.

 

No offense is going to have to try very hard for their team to win the game.

 

Its a bottom 3rd defense that will end up being ranked 16-20 because opponents will not have to drive many yards or score many points to win the game.   And those are the stats the rankings are based on.

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I think our defense would’ve been even better if our offense could stay on the field and give them some rest. 
 

The defense has surprised me a lot this season. Not saying they are perfect or I’m 100% sold on the playcalls (I’d like more blitzing), but they are most definitely not the reason we’re so bad this year. 

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So I had some time, our opponents have averaged 20.4 ppg league wide and 20.3 against us. 

1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

I am just going to leave this here...

 

Defense (Yards Allowed)

image.png.c3f8e2c8a91c9c1784a3f4397070e493.png

 

Offense (Points Per Game)

image.png.d626fd63e106757c4ea96f5cec157ca8.png

 

 

i quoted those two things in the OP, but thanks for reiterating them for me. 

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2 hours ago, Nickster said:

They have been decent against terrible offensive teams, currently 13th in ppg given up and 6th in total yards given up.  

 

With the exception of KC, who was limited largely because of it's kicking woes that week, we have faced a godawful slate of offenses. The next 5 weeks will indicate if this team is much better than average defensively.  I doubt it.  

 

I don't think a team could play worse offenses overall than we have to this point. 

 

We had Texans, Jags 2X, Titans 2X, Broncs, Wash, and Pats.  

 

Where do you think we will rank at years end?

 

 

 

Watcha confused about?

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28 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

I am just going to leave this here...

 

Defense (Yards Allowed)

image.png.c3f8e2c8a91c9c1784a3f4397070e493.png

 

Offense (Points Per Game)

image.png.d626fd63e106757c4ea96f5cec157ca8.png

 

If the defense is having to defend a short field before the opponent scores, or if its not defending a shoot out that was a function of our O, those low yard totals given up could be misleading compared to when it really matters.

 

By their nature, NFL offenses are only as wide open as they have to be to win the game.  No opponent has had to turn on the gas yet to win, and may not ever have to.  In which case, the ranking would be artificially high if measured by the typical metrics of yards and points.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

If the defense is having to defend a short field before the opponent scores, or if its not defending a shoot out that was a function of our O, those low yard totals given up could be misleading compared to when it really matters.

 

By their nature, NFL offenses are only as wide open as they have to be to win the game.  No opponent has had to turn on the gas yet to win, and may not ever have to.  In which case, the ranking would be artificially high if measured by the typical metrics of yards and points.

 

The Colts defense has forced a lot of field goals in those situations...

 

I would argue that the Colts Defense has been put in worse situations than Denver's defense this season. And the Colts defense has stepped up big time, keeping this team in games. 

 

But it is okay to disagree. I am a big fan of this defense. Love the direction it is heading in. If you are not then that's okay too. 

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1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

The Colts defense has forced a lot of field goals in those situations...

 

I would argue that the Colts Defense has been put in worse situations than Denver's defense this season. And the Colts defense has stepped up big time, keeping this team in games. 

 

But it is okay to disagree. I am a big fan of this defense. Love the direction it is heading in. If you are not then that's okay too. 

Just saying that if teams don't feel like they have to score a lot of points to win, then total points allowed and total yards given up would be lower than other defenses in the NFL that have more normal conditions to deal with.   Opponents may feel like they only have to score 17 points to win, while other defenses around the NFL have to deal with offenses trying to score 35.  IOW, the stats don't tell the story.

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7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Just saying that if teams don't feel like they have to score a lot of points to win, then total points allowed and total yards given up would be lower than other defenses in the NFL that have more normal conditions to deal with.   Opponents may feel like they only have to score 17 points to win, while other defenses around the NFL have to deal with offenses trying to score 35.  IOW, the stats don't tell the story.

 

I disagree... 

 

NFL teams are going to score as much as they can... Teams are not putting 40 burgers on the Colts. No matter how much our offense is giving opposing teams an assist. 

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26 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I disagree... 

 

NFL teams are going to score as much as they can... Teams are not putting 40 burgers on the Colts. No matter how much our offense is giving opposing teams an assist. 

NFL teams are content to score only as much as they have to.  They are not putting a 40 burger up against us because they don't have too.  OTOH, they will always try to put up a 40 burger against KC and the BIlls...score more points and gather more yards against those teams than us...because that's what it takes to beat them....so KCs and BUFs defense will be ranked lower than ours (in terms of total yards and points) even though they have better personnel. 

 

Its also why two minute drills looks different than offenses look at the 10 minute mark.  Its why the end of games look so much different than the first three quarters.  They put on the gas only when they have to.  And no team ever has to against us.

 

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7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

NFL teams are content to score only as much as they have to.  They are not putting a 40 burger up against us because they don't have too.  OTOH, they will always try to put up a 40 burger against KC and the BIlls...score more points and gather more yards against those teams than us...because that's what it takes to beat them....so KCs and BUFs defense will be ranked lower than ours (in terms of total yards and points) even though they have better personnel. 

 

Its also why two minute drills looks different than offenses look at the 10 minute mark.  Its why the end of games look so much different than the first three quarters.  They put on the gas only when they have to.  And no team ever has to against us.

 

 

Dude. I have given you many outs of this conversation. 

 

There is no way in H, E double hockey sticks that an NFL team ever goes into a game thinking they only need to score 17 points to win. No coaching staff would ever make that their game plan. They are designing every play with a purpose. They want to score as many points as possible. 

 

I am not having this conversation any more. Feel free to continue this conversation without me. 

 

:)

 

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4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Dude. I have given you many outs of this conversation. 

 

There is no way in H, E double hockey sticks that an NFL team ever goes into a game thinking they only need to score 17 points to win. No coaching staff would ever make that their game plan. They are designing every play with a purpose. They want to score as many points as possible. 

 

I am not having this conversation any more. Feel free to continue this conversation without me. 

 

:)

 

Nobody is looking at the Colts and thinking they need to score 40 points.   And then they know it by the end of the 1st quarter.  Then they play not to lose.......or when in the RZ to secure FGs instead of TDs.   That cuts down on the number of yards and points our defense gives up in a game and over a season.

 

Good talk though.  I'm moving on.  

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3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Its an overrated defense that will end ranked higher than it actually is.  Its been playing all of these lousy offenses in games where that lousy offense didn't even have to try that hard to win the game.   It simply can't drop into the ranking it deserves with only 8 games left.  No offense is going to have to try very hard for their team to win the game.

 

Its a bottom 3rd defense that will end up being ranked 16-20.  


Holy Cow…….     

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D is fine.

DL is improved. DB is improved.

LB is decent, good given they have been without Leonard/TOs.

 

And... given our O hasn't helped, I'm surprised they've done so well... 

 

And it's early (for Gus's scheme)... I didn't expect the scheme/personnel to meld until the 2nd half the season. 

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11 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


That was my commentary.   If you wish to align your views with that poster,  PLEASE be my guest!    Good luck with that!

 

 

It’s your views and the condescending attitude with which you convey them that I find quite amusing.

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28 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


That was my commentary.   If you wish to align your views with that poster,  PLEASE be my guest!    Good luck with that!

 

 

If we play better offenses going forward than what we've played so far, we'll see how the D looks.  The ranking is bound to come down.  How far?

 

Have teams been scoring TDs or FGs against us?  Are they taking the risks to score TDs?  No, they don't have too.  So while our offense gives them the ball often on our side of the field, how many yards do they need to drive to get into the RZ, and how much risk do they have to take to maintain the lead?  They don't have to drive the field.  Fewer yards, fewer points.  Yards and points is likely a false measure of how good the D is.

 

Its a different metric than if we had a more normal offense.

 

 

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4 hours ago, DougDew said:

NFL teams are content to score only as much as they have to.  They are not putting a 40 burger up against us because they don't have too.  OTOH, they will always try to put up a 40 burger against KC and the BIlls...score more points and gather more yards against those teams than us...because that's what it takes to beat them....so KCs and BUFs defense will be ranked lower than ours (in terms of total yards and points) even though they have better personnel. 

 

Its also why two minute drills looks different than offenses look at the 10 minute mark.  Its why the end of games look so much different than the first three quarters.  They put on the gas only when they have to.  And no team ever has to against us.

 

Doug.  I read your comments and can agree a lot.   But!!!!   No team goes into a game thinking they only have to score  XXX amount of points to win.     They may see that during the game late in the 4th, so if that was your take I apologize.   But not Pre Game or the 1st 3 quarters

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1 minute ago, ChuggaBeer said:

Doug.  I read your comments and can agree a lot.   But!!!!   No team goes into a game thinking they only have to score  XXX amount of points to win.     They may see that during the game late in the 4th, so if that was your take I apologize.   But not Pre Game or the 1st 3 quarters

Simply put, we can't win the field position battle.  So the short fields mean fewer yards given up than other teams who make the opponent drive the field.    I think other teams know this, and game plan accordingly.  Don't take chances,  Play field position and keep us pinned.  They can feel that they can win a low scoring game.  Kick FGs instead of risking a pick, or something that changes field position....because our O can't change it very well.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If we play better offenses going forward than what we've played so far, we'll see how the D looks.  The ranking is bound to come down.  How far?

 

Have teams been scoring TDs or FGs against us?  Are they taking the risks to score TDs?  No, they don't have too.  So while our offense gives them the ball often on our side of the field, how many yards do they need to drive to get into the RZ, and how much risk do they have to take to maintain the lead?  They don't have to drive the field.  Fewer yards, fewer points.  Yards and points is likely a false measure of how good the D is.

 

Its a different metric than if we had a more normal offense.

 

 


Doug…..

 

With your viewpoint, no team should ever win by more than say, 21 points.   Teams should shut it down and stop trying because it’s a waste.  No need to put out more effort. 
 

But that doesn’t happen, does it?   Teams win big all the time, don’t they?   Most every week. 
 

So this theory of yours is one that don’t subscribe to.   
 

By the way, I clicked 11-16 on probable defensive rank.  I think 11-13 is more likely than 14-16.    But I certainly don’t subscribe to the idea that it’s in the bottom third of the NFL.    That’s roughly 22-32.    I appreciate that we haven’t faced many offensive power houses but I think you’ve overreacted to that concept. 
 

By the way, and not for nothing….  Either today or yesterday, you posted that you always thought this was a 6-win team.   Maybe I missed those posts?   Do you have a prediction from before the start of the season that says 6 wins?   I’d love to see that.   Show me that and I will be happy to apologize for doubting you.  
 

Appreciate your post. 

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8 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

If you do not believe the Colts have a top 5 NFL defense, then we do not watch football the same way. 

 

It is okay. You can have an opinion... 

 

I believe this defense is on its way to becoming a premiere NFL defense... 

Oh  brother. U cannot full evaluate till u play high rated offences. U remember Rhonda Rousey? Yes, the greatest women's champ ever . A created image from beating ng no names. Fights a legit fighter for the 1st time  and ended up being embarrassed. From the top to being one of thr biggest jokes of sll time.Colts D maybe legit but let's wait till end of the season to see  how good they are or aren't. My point. The level of an opponent matters the most when evaluating one's talent

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10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:


Doug…..

 

With your viewpoint, no team should ever win by more than say, 21 points.   Teams should shut it down and stop trying because it’s a waste.  No need to put out more effort. 
 

But that doesn’t happen, does it?   Teams win big all the time, don’t they?   Most every week. 
 

So this theory of yours is one that don’t subscribe to.   
 

By the way, I clicked 11-16 on probable defensive rank.  I think 11-13 is more likely than 14-16.    But I certainly don’t subscribe to the idea that it’s in the bottom third of the NFL.    That’s roughly 22-32.    I appreciate that we haven’t faced many offensive power houses but I think you’ve overreacted to that concept. 
 

By the way, and not for nothing….  Either today or yesterday, you posted that you always thought this was a 6-win team.   Maybe I missed those posts?   Do you have a prediction from before the start of the season that says 6 wins?   I’d love to see that.   Show me that and I will be happy to apologize for doubting you.  
 

Appreciate your post. 

NFL teams don't try to score every 90 seconds using five 60-yard possessions when they are controlling the game.  They try to eat the clock for 10 minutes with one 85-yard possession and win it by 10.  No fear of falling behind....and if they did...just open it up and score 21 when they have too.  They wont have to, and that will be reflected in the lower final yards and points tallies at the end of the season.  The D is now and will be ranked higher than they really are.

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5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

NFL teams don't try to score every 90 seconds and 5 possessions when the game is at hand.  They try to eat the clock for 10 minutes with one possession and win it by 10.  No fear of falling behind....and if they did...just open it up and score 21 when they have too.  They wont have to, and that will be reflected in the final yards and points tallies at the end of the season.  Higher than they really are.


Doug….

 

Im sorry, but I do not believe this position is true.   Most NFL teams try to score as much as they can for roughly three quarters.   They don’t try for long time consuming drives until the 4th quarter.  
 

Most teams do not like long drives because they believe the longer the drive the greater the chances of (A) penalties and/or (B) turnovers.   But they’re willing to do this in the 4th quarter because the payoff is running out the clock.   
 

There are exceptions to this rule.   Some teams are willing to run longer drives with more plays.   The Colts last year was one such team.   That’s why Wentz only threw the ball 30 times a game and why Taylor had 21.5 touches per game.  The Colts had fewer turnovers and tried to have fewer penalties.   The Colts tried to eat clock and win low scoring games.  
 

Im sorry….  I’m not trying to be argumentative.   I’m just sharing that our visions of how football is played is very, very different.  

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