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Our Defense is Likely Way Overrated on this Board

Nickster

By Nickster
in Colts Football

End of Season D Ranks  

68 members have voted

  1. 1. Where do you think Colts Defense will rank at the end of the season in ppg?


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Nickster Ring of Honor

Nickster

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4 hours ago, masterlock said:

It's hard to underscore because it's not really true. The Colts played the top 3 scoring offenses in the league (Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles). They also played the Vikings (8th), Jags (11th), Raiders (12), Chargers (13), Giants (16), and Patriots (17).  

That was posted before played the Boys or Eags. Chargers, raiders and Giants.  And  before JAx turned it around

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Nickster Ring of Honor

Nickster

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4 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  We are running Ballards system with Ballards drafted players to make it work. He has killed us with his failures Turay, Banogu, and tweener Lewis.

 No depth at DT.

  And our LB's get destroyed in the passing game. 

 The o-line is in shambles, not one good blocking TE, and Ballards Big WR's that don't block well and can't get open quickly.

  I CONCEDE, we are doomed with Irsay and Ballard.

 Only a different perspective at GM can clean this up, and Irsay needs to

 "STAY the HE!! IN THE TRUCK" and play with his other Toys.

 

Stay in the truck and don’t touch the gear shifter.

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DougDew

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5 hours ago, Nickster said:

Oh and by the way @Thunderbolt.  You were the only one who predicted the correct tier of ppg lol.  The rest of us had them 20th or better.  
 

uhh congratulations?

Hey man, here is my original post from November 7th.

 

Its a bottom 3rd defense that will end up being ranked 16-20.

 

It was a technical failure to not actually fill out the poll correctly.  LOL.

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DougDew

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The numbers will be skewed because of the last few games, we just quit playing it looked like. Having said that I hate our scheme, these dudes being open 5 yards down the field before we even cover is really getting old.

The numbers were skewed to the positive in the first few games, to OPs point.   With stats and rankings, hardly any data falls to the mean a lot, so its a mathematical collection of outliers.  A lot of skewed games are built into every teams ranking.

 

I hate our personnel.

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2006Coltsbestever

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2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The numbers were skewed to the positive in the first few games, to OPs point.   With stats and rankings, hardly any data falls to the mean a lot, so its a mathematical collection of outliers.  A lot of skewed games are built into every teams ranking.

 

I hate our personnel.

I hate our scheme, not having Leonard hurt simply because he causes so many turnovers as well.

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DougDew

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6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I hate our scheme, not having Leonard hurt simply because he causes so many turnovers as well.

He would play MIKE, and we have no idea how he would fare playing MIKE in this scheme.  The guy we had there was pretty good.

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csmopar

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Just now, Nickster said:

 

We ended up in 30th for ppg and the officially 15 "ranked" defense in total yardage. 

 

Not great.  To say the least. 

I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning, they listed an interesting stat. If the D had maintained its stats from Q1-Q3 into Q4 of each game, the rankings would put it 4th, if you did the same thing for all other Defenses as well. 
 

so it seems that we either suck in Q4 of each game or we are just plain gassed. We also allowed by far the most points in the 4th too. Makes me wonder if we have a conditioning problem or if it’s just our O couldn’t stay on the field and the D wore down. I’m guessing the latter

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DougDew

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Just now, csmopar said:

I was listening to Mike and Mike this morning, they listed an interesting stat. If the D had maintained its stats from Q1-Q3 into Q4 of each game, the rankings would put it 4th, if you did the same thing for all other Defenses as well. 
 

so it seems that we either suck in Q4 of each game or we are just plain gassed. We also allowed by far the most points in the 4th too. Makes me wonder if we have a conditioning problem or if it’s just our O couldn’t stay on the field and the D wore down. I’m guessing the latter

Ok, this is where I get frustrated with the forum.   Coaches will tell you that a main strategy in game planning is to "keep the game close" for 3Qs than win it in the 4Q.  Our old PM led offense wanted to jump on top early and then sick the pass rushers on the opponent.  Most teams do not have that O.

 

Yes, we kept it close....mainly because the opponent was not trying to put their feet on the gas.....but when it counts, our defense failed very regularly.   Its why rankings are misleading...they get a bunch of credit just because the opponent is playing conservative on offense.  They know our offense has never been explosive, so the opponent goes into the game knowing they don't have to score many points.  JMO.

 

We were not gassed vs HOU.  Our O scored 24 points.  Our D just failed when it needed to get stops.

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Nickster

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35 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Before the Dallas game, we were in the top half of giving up points. Once that game happened things caved in regarding PPG.

 

Bottom line is you are what your record says you are.


Sure there are mitigating circumstances but the only worse offense than us this year was the Denver Broncos and that D did not have the same collapsing nature.  Denver finished 13th in ppg and ranked 6 in total yards. 


So I am not saying that some of what people are saying about mitigating circumstances isn't true, but I don't think we are a great defense.  We are at best an average defense IMO and always were.  We had a cupcake schedule when I originated this topic and were bound to come back the mean.  We did that and then some.  

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2006Coltsbestever

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

 

Bottom line is you are what your record says you are.


Sure there are mitigating circumstances but the only worse offense than us this year was the Denver Broncos and that D did not have the same collapsing nature.  Denver finished 13th in ppg and ranked 6 in total yards. 


So I am not saying that some of what people are saying about mitigating circumstances isn't true, but I don't think we are a great defense.  We are an average defense IMO and always were.  We had a cupcake schedule when I originated this topic and were bound to come back the mean.  We did that and then some.  

I can't really debate that because I think our D is average as well, I just hate our scheme and think we give up way too many easy short passes. Our D was good 1st half of the season but it fizzled toward the end.

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shasta519

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31 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

We ended up in 30th for ppg and the officially 15 "ranked" defense in total yardage. 

 

Not great.  To say the least. 

 

Even if you take out the points directly of offensive TOs, I think they still finish at #24. 

 

Some other stats:

  • #13 EPA
  • #14 DVOA (#15 PASS and #15 RUN)
  • #32 RZ % (TD ONLY)
  • #10 3D %
  • #30 Passer Rating Against
  • #21 ANY/A
  • #10 in sacks
    • #7 in sack %
  • #24 SOS (will probably finish in the #26-27 range once HOU game is added)

This defense did some things well. But ultimately, it couldn't close out opponents or keep them out of the EZ. The offense did them no favor with the TOs though.

 

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shasta519

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3 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Bottom line is you are what your record says you are.


Sure there are mitigating circumstances but the only worse offense than us this year was the Denver Broncos and that D did not have the same collapsing nature.  Denver finished 13th in ppg and ranked 6 in total yards. 


So I am not saying that some of what people are saying about mitigating circumstances isn't true, but I don't think we are a great defense.  We are at best an average defense IMO and always were.  We had a cupcake schedule when I originated this topic and were bound to come back the mean.  We did that and then some.  

 

Yep. The fact that DEN's defense was able to maintain a top 10 defense, despite also having a terrible offense, sort of puts that whole "it's the offense's fault" argument to bed. Yes, it played a role, but it also gave them a 33-0 lead that they blew.

 

On the flip side, the offense also put them in "advantageous" 2H situations early on in the season by being down big. Once that happened, the opposing offense went conservative.

 

You can see an example of this impact from their 4Q/OT defense"

 

Through the first 5 weeks, the defense's EPA in the 4Q/OT was #1 in the NFL (by a good margin) at -.477. Some Colts Twitter guy tried to argue with me that it was sustainable. Since then, the defense's EPA in the 4Q/OT is #32 at .207.

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joeb Practice Squad

joeb

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3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I hate our scheme, not having Leonard hurt simply because he causes so many turnovers as well.

I agree Leonard is a game changer. If there is a bright spot from this season it's Zaire Franklin. Okereke plays a good game as well.

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Nickster

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22 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Franklin is the MVP of our team this year IMO. He doesn't create the turnovers that Leonard does but his tackling is an A+

Zaire can't guard a parked car.  He's a replaceable level ILB.  That is what ILBs do is tackle.  # of tackles is not a very meaningful stat for a ILB.  I know some will get all weepy about it but this is reality.    This d is designed for the ILBs to make tackles.   

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2006Coltsbestever

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1 minute ago, Nickster said:

Zaire can't guard a parked car.  He's a replaceable level ILB.  That is what ILBs do is tackle.  # of tackles is not a very meaningful stat for a ILB.  I know some will get all weepy about this is reality.    This d is designed for the ILBs to make tackles.   

Nothing wrong with having someone that is a great tackler. Tackling is very important.

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Nickster

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4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Nothing wrong with having someone that is a great tackler. Tackling is very important.

 

No doubt but you have to look at depth of tackles.  a lot of plays are funneled toward ILb and just the fact that they are brining the guy down in and of itself reveals very little.  They could have been ran over and got the tackle.  they could be running at an angle yds down the field and make a tackle.

 

not all tackles are equal.  When you run through the hole and stop someone in it, that is much more meaningful than pushing a guy OB after a 7 yd pick up.

 

Franklin was not that good at all despite the big tackle #s.  

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shasta519

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50 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Zaire can't guard a parked car.  He's a replaceable level ILB.  That is what ILBs do is tackle.  # of tackles is not a very meaningful stat for a ILB.  I know some will get all weepy about it but this is reality.    This d is designed for the ILBs to make tackles.   

 

Zaire is definitely getting unsung hero treatment from this fanbase. I saw one write-up where the writer said he should have been a PBer. 

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chad72

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34 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Zaire is definitely getting unsung hero treatment from this fanbase. I saw one write-up where the writer said he should have been a PBer. 

 

What Nickster is saying that Franklin had a lot of tackles like Pat Angerer, the drag down tackler had because the 2011 offense couldn't stay on the field long enough (great for DPI in fantasy :)). Tackles for loss or no gain, and pass breakups in coverage probably stand out more as difference making plays while having few missed tackles.

 

Yes, it is a fine balance because an over aggressive LB can be high on missed tackles but can make Peanut punches for turnovers and tackles for losses but take bad angles and gaps and run himself out of a play. 

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2006Coltsbestever

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30 minutes ago, VikingsFanInChennai said:

In the end, Only one person predicted the poll correctly.  :goat:

 

@Thunderbolt

There is always 5-10 people that pick us to do bad on purpose so if we do they look like a king and they come back and say, "see I told you so". If you go back and look at how many people picked the Colts to win 10 or 11 games this year, it was over 90%. I think maybe 6 or 7 people had us having a losing record including other polls. I remember back in 2020, it was the same thing when we had Rivers. People like to pile on me for me saying we would be good this year and we would win 11 games but when I predicted we would win 11 games and make the playoffs in 2020 with Rivers, not 1 person said I was right chuckling homer simpson GIF - and I nailed that. The negative People were actually calling Rivers a noodle arm washed bum during the season. Once we clinched that playoff spot and won 11, they were the internet bums :banana:

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