Pros and cons acquiring Sam Darnold

[DownHillRunner]

There has been talk floating around saying Ballard would acquire Darnold if Wentz goes to Chicago. Its time to analyze some of the pros and cons from acquiring Darnold. 

 

 

Pros 

 

• 23 years old, 5 years younger than Wentz so he still has time to become a great QB 
• Change of scenery could help. Frank, the offense line, the weapons he would have in Indy, Ballard building the team around him, he wouldn't feel like he has to do too much which means the INTs and bad decision making will decrease. 
• $9 million cap hit instead of the $25.4 million cap hit  any team will have to take on to acquire Wentz. Also, the Colts can decline Darnold's 5th year option if he struggles next season. They can obviously sign him to a new contract if he earns it. 

 

 

 

Cons 

 

 

• In 2020, the times when he had a clean pocket he still struggled. 
• In his career he never achieved a 46 or better QBR. 
• He averaged only 6.6 passing yards per attempt in 2020 and Jacoby had 6.6 in 2019. 
• He average only 7.7 yards per intended pass in 2020. 

 

 

Maybe those cons have a lot to do with the team and coaching around him on the Jets. Maybe it has a lot to do with Darnold himself. I'd be shocked if Ballard entertains a 1st round pick for Darnold despite the pros I listed above. 

 

 

 

 

     

[stitches]

Has there ever been a QB this bad for the first 3 years of his career who turned it around after that? I genuinely don't know. And even if there is... this type of situation must be a huge outllier. What is the chance that this specific one will pan out? I kind of don't trust it. 

[RNGDShobby]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

Has there ever been a QB this bad for the first 3 years of his career who turned it around after that? I genuinely don't know. And even if there is... this type of situation must be a huge outllier. What is the chance that this specific one will pan out? I kind of don't trust it. 

This.

I agree he hasnt had near the level of support a 21 year old QB needs when they come out but when you're 'seeing ghosts', thats not on your support.

I'm not opposed to Darnold, but I'd rather Wentz, Eason or a rookie 1st rounder.

[DownHillRunner]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Has there ever been a QB this bad for the first 3 years of his career who turned it around after that? I genuinely don't know. And even if there is... this type of situation must be a huge outllier. What is the chance that this specific one will pan out? I kind of don't trust it. 

 

In rare occasions that has happened. Drew Brees is one who struggled his first 3 seasons and went onto have a Hall of Fame career. If the Colts were not a win now team I probably would consider it. But this is a win now, deep playoff run, with SuperBowl goals team. 

[chad72]

The more and more I look at it, I would rather take Trubisky over Darnold. Trubisky has a lot of Ryan Tannehill like attributes that makes me think that with the running game help, he will flourish.

[CR91]

1 hour ago, RNGDShobby said:

This.

I agree he hasnt had near the level of support a 21 year old QB needs when they come out but when you're 'seeing ghosts', thats not on your support.

I'm not opposed to Darnold, but I'd rather Wentz, Eason or a rookie 1st rounder.

 

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Has there ever been a QB this bad for the first 3 years of his career who turned it around after that? I genuinely don't know. And even if there is... this type of situation must be a huge outllier. What is the chance that this specific one will pan out? I kind of don't trust it. 

 

Ryan Tannerhill seems to be doing fine in tennessee. What help exactly have the Jets given Darnold for him to excel? Jamison Crowder? Over the hill bell? A hundred year old Gore?

[John Hammonds]

15 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Ryan Tannerhill seems to be doing fine in tennessee.

Here's the comparison of the two QB's, since they were both damaged by Adam Gase
Ryan Tannehill

2012  MIA  58.3% comp  6.8 Y/A  48.4 QBR

2013  MIA  60.4% comp  6.7 Y/A  48.4 QBR

2014  MIA  66.4% comp  6.9 Y/A  59.3 QBR

2015  MIA  61.9% comp  7.2 Y/A  45.6 QBR

2016  MIA  67.1% comp  7.7 Y/A  48.6 QBR

2018  MIA  64.2% comp  7.2 Y/A  33.2 QBR

2019  TEN  70.3% comp  9.6 Y/A  64.2 QBR

2020  TEN  65.5% comp  7.9 Y/A  78.3 QBR

Sam Darnold

2018  NYJ  57.7% comp  6.9 Y/A  45.9 QBR

2019  NYJ  61.9% comp  6.9 Y/A  45.6 QBR

2020  NYJ  59.6% comp  6.1 Y/A  40.2 QBR

 

Looks like Darnold was worse under Gase than Tannehill was.  But will he get the same relative boost with someone else that Tannehill did?

[CR91]

22 minutes ago, John Hammonds said:

Here's the comparison of the two QB's, since they were both damaged by Adam Gase
Ryan Tannehill

2012  MIA  58.3% comp  6.8 Y/A  48.4 QBR

2013  MIA  60.4% comp  6.7 Y/A  48.4 QBR

2014  MIA  66.4% comp  6.9 Y/A  59.3 QBR

2015  MIA  61.9% comp  7.2 Y/A  45.6 QBR

2016  MIA  67.1% comp  7.7 Y/A  48.6 QBR

2018  MIA  64.2% comp  7.2 Y/A  33.2 QBR

2019  TEN  70.3% comp  9.6 Y/A  64.2 QBR

2020  TEN  65.5% comp  7.9 Y/A  78.3 QBR

Sam Darnold

2018  NYJ  57.7% comp  6.9 Y/A  45.9 QBR

2019  NYJ  61.9% comp  6.9 Y/A  45.6 QBR

2020  NYJ  59.6% comp  6.1 Y/A  40.2 QBR

 

Looks like Darnold was worse under Gase than Tannehill was.  But will he get the same relative boost with someone else that Tannehill did?

 

I just think Darnold has shown flashes even with limited talent around him. Also I'm sure Pittman would be happy getting his old QB back.

[ColtV]

The big upside is the contract. Even if you have to execute a 5th year option right away(and you almost have to) it will still be less than Wentz. Compensation should be far less too, as its almost a given that NYJ are going to go with another qb at #2. It all comes down to 1) what kind of grade did Ballard have on Darnold coming into the draft 2) do the coaches think he is salvageable?

[w87r]

4 hours ago, DownHillRunner said:

$9 million cap hit instead of the $25.4 million cap hit  any team will have to take on to acquire Wentz. Also, the Colts can decline Darnold's 5th year option if he struggles next season. They can obviously sign him to a new contract if he earns it. 

His 2021 cap hit for team traded to would be $4.7m.

 

Yeah, I imagine 5th yr option would be declined, then sign to extension if he earns it, or Franchise Tag, if unable to agree on ext.

 

Franchise number would be pretty similar to 5th year option anyway.

[Jackie Daytona]

3 hours ago, w87r said:

His 2021 cap hit for team traded to would be $4.7m.

 

Yeah, I imagine 5th yr option would be declined, then sign to extension if he earns it, or Franchise Tag, if unable to agree on ext.

 

Franchise number would be pretty similar to 5th year option anyway.

The 5th yr option on his rookie contract would equal the avg. Of the top five or whatever QBs in the league?

[DaColts85]

6 hours ago, Shafty138 said:

The 5th yr option on his rookie contract would equal the avg. Of the top five or whatever QBs in the league?

No his 5th year would be around 25 mil. You are thinking the franchise tag which is top avg. for a QB it is like 31 or 32 mil. 

[ColtJax]

He sees too many Ghosts for me..

[richard pallo]

Wentz is our 1st option and if he goes elsewhere Darnold is most likely the next option based on all of the positives already discussed.  His contract, being young with a lot of upside and Ballard's relationship with the Jets makes him the logical alternative.  Actually the fact that the new coach in NY is still evaluating Darnold and trying to decide if they should take a QB in the draft might be actually holding up a potential trade.  If they decide to move on from Darnold Ballard might actually be able to acquire him as soon as they make their decision.  They are taking their time and that could be the holdup.  

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, richard pallo said:

Wentz is our 1st option and if he goes elsewhere Darnold is most likely the next option based on all of the positives already discussed.  His contract, being young with a lot of upside and Ballard's relationship with the Jets makes him the logical alternative.  Actually the fact that the new coach in NY is still evaluating Darnold and trying to decide if they should take a QB in the draft might be actually holding up a potential trade.  If they decide to move on from Darnold Ballard might actually be able to acquire him as soon as they make their decision.  They are taking their time and that could be the holdup.  

Saw a story the other day saying the Jets are telling teams the decision shouldn’t take long.   I take that to mean a week or so more.  Teams have big decisions to make with FA coming up in one month. 

[jvan1973]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Wentz is our 1st option and if he goes elsewhere Darnold is most likely the next option based on all of the positives already discussed.  His contract, being young with a lot of upside and Ballard's relationship with the Jets makes him the logical alternative.  Actually the fact that the new coach in NY is still evaluating Darnold and trying to decide if they should take a QB in the draft might be actually holding up a potential trade.  If they decide to move on from Darnold Ballard might actually be able to acquire him as soon as they make their decision.  They are taking their time and that could be the holdup.  

Trading for a guy in the last year of his contract isn't very appealing.   Especially since he hasn't been good in the previous three years

[DaColts85]

Just now, jvan1973 said:

Trading for a guy in the last year of his contract isn't very appealing.   Especially since he hasn't been good in the previous three years

This is exactly right. You have to immediately negotiate something more team friendly to avoid that 5th year option. 

[MB-ColtsFan]

4 hours ago, ColtJax said:

He sees too many Ghosts for me..

Yeah, but if TY re-signs then his seeing ghosts would be legit.

[richard pallo]

3 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

This is exactly right. You have to immediately negotiate something more team friendly to avoid that 5th year option. 

You don't have to negotiate anything.  You just don't pick up the 5th yr option.  If he does well you sign him to a long term deal at that point.  You can always franchise him if necessary.  We actually franchised Peyton once.  If Ballard wants him he will find a way to keep him.  

[DaColts85]

15 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

You don't have to negotiate anything.  You just don't pick up the 5th yr option.  If he does well you sign him to a long term deal at that point.  You can always franchise him if necessary.  We actually franchised Peyton once.  If Ballard wants him he will find a way to keep him.  

So instead of figuring a contract out for say two years that helps the team financially you would like to possibly franchise him and pay him 30+ million for a year. No thanks to that!

[poilucelt]

On 2/15/2021 at 1:57 PM, DownHillRunner said:

There has been talk floating around saying Ballard would acquire Darnold if Wentz goes to Chicago. Its time to analyze some of the pros and cons from acquiring Darnold. 

 

 

Pros 

 

• 23 years old, 5 years younger than Wentz so he still has time to become a great QB 
• Change of scenery could help. Frank, the offense line, the weapons he would have in Indy, Ballard building the team around him, he wouldn't feel like he has to do too much which means the INTs and bad decision making will decrease. 
• $9 million cap hit instead of the $25.4 million cap hit  any team will have to take on to acquire Wentz. Also, the Colts can decline Darnold's 5th year option if he struggles next season. They can obviously sign him to a new contract if he earns it. 

 

 

 

Cons 

 

 

• In 2020, the times when he had a clean pocket he still struggled. 
• In his career he never achieved a 46 or better QBR. 
• He averaged only 6.6 passing yards per attempt in 2020 and Jacoby had 6.6 in 2019. 
• He average only 7.7 yards per intended pass in 2020. 

 

 

Maybe those cons have a lot to do with the team and coaching around him on the Jets. Maybe it has a lot to do with Darnold himself. I'd be shocked if Ballard entertains a 1st round pick for Darnold despite the pros I listed above. 

 

 

 

 

     

if Ballard wouldn't give up a 1st for Stafford or Wentz, I doubt he'd give one up for Darnold.

 

IMO (as someone who's not very high on EITHER Wentz or Darnold) the biggest plus about gambling on Darnold instead of Wentz is that if it didn't work out, it would be easier and less expensive to get out of that situation than the one you'd have with Wentz and his contract.

 

FWIW, there are some East Coast media rumblings that the Jets may actually hold on to Darnold and either pick Sewell, one of the WRs, or trade down. Apparently some (not all) in the Jets organization think it's too soon to give up on Darnold, and want to see what the new coaching staff can do with him.

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, DaColts85 said:

So instead of figuring a contract out for say two years that helps the team financially you would like to possibly franchise him and pay him 30+ million for a year. No thanks to that!

So when does a player, especially a starting QB, decides to do the team a favor and sign a two year extension?  Never.  Did Dak do it?  You only franchise him if you can't come to a deal.  It's a last resort.  It's done all of the time.  This isn't rocket science.  That's why the tags are there.  

[DaColts85]

7 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

So when does a player, especially a starting QB, decides to do the team a favor and sign a two year extension?  Never.  Did Dak do it?  You only franchise him if you can't come to a deal.  It's a last resort.  It's done all of the time.  This isn't rocket science.  That's why the tags are there.  

You are comparing a struggling young QB who has shown nothing to Dak? Come on now. This is a different. You bring in Sam and immediately get a two year deal done. Typically done while trade is being finalized. Ballard would be an * to franchise Darnold period. 30 plus million for a mediocre QB. That’s rocket science right there.

[BlackTiger]

6 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Actually the fact that the new coach in NY is still evaluating Darnold and trying to decide if they should take a QB in the draft might be actually holding up a potential trade

If they keep Sam then they have a good chance of getting a big trade for their pick.  That #2 is going to be worth a lot with Fields and Wilson on the board.

 

They have a lot to consider right now, probably should be checking into those trades as well as Darnold

[Moosejawcolt]

9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Saw a story the other day saying the Jets are telling teams the decision shouldn’t take long.   I take that to mean a week or so more.  Teams have big decisions to make with FA coming up in one month. 

If the Jets r still having to think of keeping Darnold. Then as a fan I would b very concerned about the new coaches.