Rate Garcon's 2010 season

[NYColt]

How would you guys rate Pierre Garcon's 2010 campaign?

He finished with 67 RECs, 784 YDs and 6TDs and 11.7 Y/R with a catch-rate of 56% (not a particularly useful stat as completion percentage is affected by whether it is a short or deep route)

Due to Garcon's breakout season the previous year, I think alot of us were extremely high on him and hopeful that he'd have a break-out season last year. Injuries early in the season affected his availability to work with Manning and get into a groove but down the stretch did people feel like he improved much over last year, about the same, or maybe even regressed?

His receptions went up but the problem is his yards per reception also fell dramatically too - however this might've just been a symptom of a struggling O-line being unable to provide enough time for deep routes to develop (only 25% of his targets were deep passes - down from 39.1% the previous year)

I feel that those bubble screens that are meant to take advantage of Garcon's physicality and ability to make yards after catch have been, for the most part, unsuccessful, leading me to believe that his much vaunted ability to break-tackles and make YAC is somewhat overrated. Last year he only had 270 YAC vs 314 YAC for Collie and 438 for Reggie (who obviously had twice as many targets - but Reggie isn't the hyped YAC guy that Garcon is).

In fairness though, the expectations of Garcon were somewhat unfair on him as many of us were expecting him to be great as opposed to just above average, based on the flashes of brilliance he inconsistently displays. I think his consistency has improved, as evidenced by higher number of receptions and improved catch-rate, but he is still NOWHERE near the level of reliability that Collie is at.

I give his sophomore year a B. In some ways, I think Garcon might be maxing out already - I certainly don't think he'll ever be great and think he has limited upside and won't ever be a complete receiver who reliably runs every route with the same efficiency. But if can average roughly 60-70 catches a season with 14.0 Y/R and 6-8TDs a year, I think he'll have done all that we can realistically hope for, and expect out of him. It's for that reason I think WR will be a position of much uncertainty next year - while he might be good enough, could we do better? Hence the constant Moss murmurs this off-season (of which I too am guilty of)

[Coffeedrinker]

I think your assessment and grade is pretty accurate. I to think Garcon is maxed out, I think he will do well against slower CBs but will continue to struggle against faster CBs that can run with him because his route running is not the greatest.

I will also say, if Gonzo stays healthy Garcon will see his looks go down but that might be beneficial for both him and the Colts. Imagine a CB covering Gonzo and gets used to Gonzo's speed and cuts and route running. Then Garcon comes in, Gonzo moves to the inside, Garcon runs the 9 or a skinny post off a PA, catches the CBs and safeties focusing on Gonzo. Could really lead to a lot of big plays. So in that scenario Garcon would see the number of catches go down but would see his YAC and total yards remain close to the same.

[mystrymaster]

I think your assessment and grade is pretty accurate. I to think Garcon is maxed out, I think he will do well against slower CBs but will continue to struggle against faster CBs that can run with him because his route running is not the greatest.

I will also say, if Gonzo stays healthy Garcon will see his looks go down but that might be beneficial for both him and the Colts. Imagine a CB covering Gonzo and gets used to Gonzo's speed and cuts and route running. Then Garcon comes in, Gonzo moves to the inside, Garcon runs the 9 or a skinny post off a PA, catches the CBs and safeties focusing on Gonzo. Could really lead to a lot of big plays. So in that scenario Garcon would see the number of catches go down but would see his YAC and total yards remain close to the same.

I agree completely with this, I think Garcon might see his touches go down but his overall effectiveness go up.

[NYColt]

Just to add to the discussion - Garcon's DVOA (depending on how much you value this stat) also decreased from -0.4% to -5.3%. This tells us that Garcon did not make as many valuable catches as the previous season despite the higher catch rate and number of receptions (I'm guessing there were alot of 6-yard bubble screens on 3rd and 15 or something like that). I wish I could find a stat on Garcon's 3rd down receptions / conversion rate.

For the sake of reference, Reggie had a DVOA of 0.3% (a serious drop-off from 18.2% the previous year - finally I have a stat that supports my belief that Wayne had a "down year" last year, despite a career high in receptions and an All Pro berth - just goes to show that volume statistics don't tell the whole story) and Collie had a monster 28.4% before being injured

I know alot of people think DVOA is just a bunch of meaningless, convoluted numbers but I personally feel it goes some way in explaining a player's impact on a game based on situation (a tough, contested 3 yard catch on 3rd and 2 should be far more valuable than a 10 yard screen on a 3rd and 15 for instance). It also reinforces the impressions left from watching the games last year, in this case, while Garcon had more catches, alot of them were unsuccessful plays or plays that did not gain much (something partialy hinted at in the 11 Y/R stat)

Although it probably won't happen for one reason or another, but I'd love to see, and prefer to see, Anthony Gonzalez in the line-up full-time over Garcon. Gonzalez can play the slot and split out wide and has a far better catch-rate and route running ability. His obvious problem is his inability to demonstrate consistent health over a 16 game stretch, but if not for that, I'd rather him in over Garcon any day. While Garcon might come up with more big plays, he'll also drop alot of easy ones whereas Gonzalez will consistently haul more in and move the chains. I think efficiency should be the most important thing on the Colts offense, given that this team constantly has year in year out fewer offensive posessions than most other teams - we need players who will consistently come up with catches and help keep us on the field.

[Coffeedrinker]

I also wanted to add, if Garcon spends his entire career in Indy and averages 45-70 catches, 700-800 yards and 4-8 TDs every year, I think that would be a very good, very successful career for him and would be valuable for the Colts.

The DVOA is interesting and not surprising for both Garcon and Wayne. As good as Tamme and White did, they did not provide the type of supporting role that Clark and Collie do, so Wayne and to a lesser extent Garcon, had to play more of that role.

[jskinnz]

I think your assessment and grade is pretty accurate. I to think Garcon is maxed out, I think he will do well against slower CBs but will continue to struggle against faster CBs that can run with him because his route running is not the greatest.

I will also say, if Gonzo stays healthy Garcon will see his looks go down but that might be beneficial for both him and the Colts. Imagine a CB covering Gonzo and gets used to Gonzo's speed and cuts and route running. Then Garcon comes in, Gonzo moves to the inside, Garcon runs the 9 or a skinny post off a PA, catches the CBs and safeties focusing on Gonzo. Could really lead to a lot of big plays. So in that scenario Garcon would see the number of catches go down but would see his YAC and total yards remain close to the same.

Did you copy & paste this directly from one of your 2010 responses to the same topic?

[Coffeedrinker]

Did you copy & paste this directly from one of your 2010 responses to the same topic?

I'm getting to be an old man, so it's possible I'm starting to repeat myself.

[indy_nick]

I feel Garcon could have a better year than last year, especially if the entire receiving corps is healthy. That will take some pressure off of him, and let him make plays. He was forced into the #2 role last year due to injuries when I felt that he wasn't ready. If he is the 3rd or 4th option on the play, he will be matched up against less skilled coverage people, and he should be able to make some more plays for us this year. Here's to hoping anyway.

[skadura]

i just want to add that garcon's production will increase substantially if the o line can block.......

generally last year manning didn't have the time hes used to having in the past so there isn't much time for our wrs to get separation.

give manning more time, gives guys like garcon to get separation and biiiiiig plays can happen.

[jskinnz]

I'm getting to be an old man, so it's possible I'm starting to repeat myself.

Me too. On the plus side of 40 now. I make up for it though with staggering immaturity.

[Rich Cannon]

Some very interesting stats, good thread

[BCMak24]

I would say B- he did drop some key passes that could've changed the outcome of the game but overall he'll be ok

[Bleedin Blue]

I think that all these assessments are pretty close to the mark.

We had several issues last year that created problems for Garcon and the passing game in general. You start with an offensive line that can't block giving Manning 2-4 seconds per snap to get a read on the defense and hit the open man, if one is open at all. Then you compound the problem by taking both Dallas and Collie out of the line up. This let teams focus all their best corners on Wayne and Garcon, effectively shutting them down.

Our running game was challenged as well both due to the offensive line which I mentioned earlier and the fact that Addia, Brown, and Hart missed a significant number of games. I can't really believe we made the playoffs at all last year. If Collie, Gonzo, and Dallas can stay on the field this year our passing offense and Garcon in particulary, should be dramatically better.

[NYColt]

I also wanted to add, if Garcon spends his entire career in Indy and averages 45-70 catches, 700-800 yards and 4-8 TDs every year, I think that would be a very good, very successful career for him and would be valuable for the Colts.

The DVOA is interesting and not surprising for both Garcon and Wayne. As good as Tamme and White did, they did not provide the type of supporting role that Clark and Collie do, so Wayne and to a lesser extent Garcon, had to play more of that role.

On a side note about Tamme, herein lies an example of the danger of just statistics - looking at the stats one would think our offense didn't skip a beat when Dallas went down. Going off statistics, Tamme led the league in TE receptions the moment Dallas went down, but what those statistics don't show is that the way defenses attacked us was completely different without Clark and that Tamme's receptions came from typically being the 4th option in the passing game.

But to Tamme's credit, alot of his catches were meaningful ones that often came at important times, evidenced by 12.6 DVOA good for 10th in the league. What I like about DVOA is how it discounts volume statistics and favors more "valuable" measures with consistent results (even if the methodology is flawed)

Tamme had an incredible year for a backup, and that'll probably fool some other team into overvaluing him during the next free agency (like Ben Utecht) and suddenly realize he's not good enough to be a featured TE

[Superman]

Garcon started out really rough. Had the hamstring, but that doesn't affect your ability to catch when the ball hits you dead in the hands. I was content to see him benched after the first game, then he missed a couple weeks with injury, came back and settled in somewhat. Was still inconsistent (remember the Eagles game where he was in the wrong place three or four times?) but started to produce. I'd give him a D for the first four weeks, and a C+ for the rest of the season.

[Coltswarriors]

I think Garcon did pretty good last year, but I'd still put him as our 3rd WR. Wayne and Collie being better, just my opinion though.

[Andy]

6.5 out of 10, he could have been much better, but overall he did a pretty good job. 6 touchdowns is not bad, but he did drop a bunch of passes. I expect better from him next year.

[BlueRedZone]

I agree with most statements on here. He got off to a bumpy start, but he also missed some time early.

I would assume a better Garcon in the future. This offense is predicated on precision and timing. Meaning effective route running. If he wants to get better then he better become a better route runner.

He made quite a few catches off of that bubble screen which got overplayed last year. Throw it in a few times during the year I can understand, but once teams knew it was coming it was easy to stop. Kind of like our end around. The first time we ran it we got like 15 yards. Since then we have maybe picked up 4 or 5 max.

One thing that might be really good for us this year is that Tom Moore is no longer here (as stupid as that sounds)

But for years it seemed like we ran the exact same stuff and teams knew it was coming, we were just able to out execute them. I hope we are able to throw in some wrinkles that they are not used to seeing.

So back to the OP I give Garcon a C last year because of his drops. Sometimes when everyone is telling you how great you are all the time you start to believe it, then you let your team down and realize you still have more to prove and to improve.

[21isSuperman]

I think he will do well against slower CBs but will continue to struggle against faster CBs that can run with him because his route running is not the greatest.

Cromartie is pretty fast (fast enough to keep up with Randy Moss), but Garcon has beaten him multiple times. I do still think he has potential, I don't think he is maxed out. If he can improve his catching percentage, he will be a monster.

[OLD FAN MAN]

How would you guys rate Pierre Garcon's 2010 campaign?

He finished with 67 RECs, 784 YDs and 6TDs and 11.7 Y/R with a catch-rate of 56% (not a particularly useful stat as completion percentage is affected by whether it is a short or deep route)

Due to Garcon's breakout season the previous year, I think alot of us were extremely high on him and hopeful that he'd have a break-out season last year. Injuries early in the season affected his availability to work with Manning and get into a groove but down the stretch did people feel like he improved much over last year, about the same, or maybe even regressed?

His receptions went up but the problem is his yards per reception also fell dramatically too - however this might've just been a symptom of a struggling O-line being unable to provide enough time for deep routes to develop (only 25% of his targets were deep passes - down from 39.1% the previous year)

I feel that those bubble screens that are meant to take advantage of Garcon's physicality and ability to make yards after catch have been, for the most part, unsuccessful, leading me to believe that his much vaunted ability to break-tackles and make YAC is somewhat overrated. Last year he only had 270 YAC vs 314 YAC for Collie and 438 for Reggie (who obviously had twice as many targets - but Reggie isn't the hyped YAC guy that Garcon is).

In fairness though, the expectations of Garcon were somewhat unfair on him as many of us were expecting him to be great as opposed to just above average, based on the flashes of brilliance he inconsistently displays. I think his consistency has improved, as evidenced by higher number of receptions and improved catch-rate, but he is still NOWHERE near the level of reliability that Collie is at.

I give his sophomore year a B. In some ways, I think Garcon might be maxing out already - I certainly don't think he'll ever be great and think he has limited upside and won't ever be a complete receiver who reliably runs every route with the same efficiency. But if can average roughly 60-70 catches a season with 14.0 Y/R and 6-8TDs a year, I think he'll have done all that we can realistically hope for, and expect out of him. It's for that reason I think WR will be a position of much uncertainty next year - while he might be good enough, could we do better? Hence the constant Moss murmurs this off-season (of which I too am guilty of)

i agree he cant seem to get open i dont know if or bad routes or lack of speed but we need a better target for peyton

[OJl]

How would you guys rate Pierre Garcon's 2010 campaign?

He finished with 67 RECs, 784 YDs and 6TDs and 11.7 Y/R with a catch-rate of 56% (not a particularly useful stat as completion percentage is affected by whether it is a short or deep route)

Due to Garcon's breakout season the previous year, I think alot of us were extremely high on him and hopeful that he'd have a break-out season last year. Injuries early in the season affected his availability to work with Manning and get into a groove but down the stretch did people feel like he improved much over last year, about the same, or maybe even regressed?

His receptions went up but the problem is his yards per reception also fell dramatically too - however this might've just been a symptom of a struggling O-line being unable to provide enough time for deep routes to develop (only 25% of his targets were deep passes - down from 39.1% the previous year)

I feel that those bubble screens that are meant to take advantage of Garcon's physicality and ability to make yards after catch have been, for the most part, unsuccessful, leading me to believe that his much vaunted ability to break-tackles and make YAC is somewhat overrated. Last year he only had 270 YAC vs 314 YAC for Collie and 438 for Reggie (who obviously had twice as many targets - but Reggie isn't the hyped YAC guy that Garcon is).

In fairness though, the expectations of Garcon were somewhat unfair on him as many of us were expecting him to be great as opposed to just above average, based on the flashes of brilliance he inconsistently displays. I think his consistency has improved, as evidenced by higher number of receptions and improved catch-rate, but he is still NOWHERE near the level of reliability that Collie is at.

I give his sophomore year a B. In some ways, I think Garcon might be maxing out already - I certainly don't think he'll ever be great and think he has limited upside and won't ever be a complete receiver who reliably runs every route with the same efficiency. But if can average roughly 60-70 catches a season with 14.0 Y/R and 6-8TDs a year, I think he'll have done all that we can realistically hope for, and expect out of him. It's for that reason I think WR will be a position of much uncertainty next year - while he might be good enough, could we do better? Hence the constant Moss murmurs this off-season (of which I too am guilty of)

I don't think the expectations for Garcon were unfair AT ALL! Garcon had a very good year the previous year sans that big drop in the Super Bowl. Last year, he needed to make THE LEAP and failed to do so. The team really needed it too after Collie and Clark went down. Early on in the season, Garcon was atrocious. He dropped passes. He ran poor routes. And he had zero chemistry with Manning at all. A part of Garcon's slow start had to do with injuries. Luckily, his play got a little better as he got healthier and the season went along. But I think a B is way too generous.

I would give Garcon a C/C- for last year. I hope Garcon has a big year this year. But I don't know. If Collie and Clark stay healthy, Garcon will be lucky to put up the same stats this year. Garcon really needs to improve his catch/thrown-to ratio. If he does that the offense will be way more efficient.