Colts at Bears: A look at Chicago's stats, ranks, and personnel

[EastStreet]

I'll start using more 2020 ranks after W4 when we have a more mature set of #s.

 

Week 4
@Bears (#24)
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)

 

2019 Offense
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19 / Run: 29)
Total O - #29 (17th so far in 2020)
Total Pts - #29 (20th so far)
Pass O - #25 (23rd so far, and will be starting a new QB)
Rush O - #27 (11th so far)

 

2020 OL Ranking

PFF #11 up from #22 preseason ranking

Pressures allowed: 27
Rush yards before contact average: 1.6

 

2019 Defense
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8 / Run: 13)
Total D - #8 (15th so far in 2020)
Total Pts - #4 (#9 so far)
Pass D - #9 (#17 so far)
Rush D - #9 (#17 so far)

 

Personnel

New Coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator

 

Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn (68.5), TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns, WR Ted Ginn Jr.

Lost: CB Prince Amukamara (67.4), WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski (72.6), EDGE Leonard Floyd (69.37), S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (74.2), OG Kyle Long

 

Key Draft Picks: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)

 

Injuries: Khalil Mack is questionable and has been LP this week with a gimpy knee. He's the second highest graded pass rusher in the league, so would be huge if he's out or limited. Their safety depth is a little banged up. Their Offense is healthy. I'll update when final.

 

Comments:
Offense - I don't care if it's Tribusky or Foles, or who they have as OC, the Bears O will still be mediocre. They have improved to #17 in total yards so far this year, and starting a new QB, but just see them as a bottom 16 team regardless. Still a bit surprised they didn't try to bolster the OL and RBs. Kmet should give them a legit TE option early though, after having virtually no TE production last year. Not enough though.

 

Defense - Still good, but have taken steps back in both passing and run D. Regardless, it will be our O's biggest overall challenge so far. We'll likely need to pass more than the we have the past two weeks. If Khalil Mack is out or limited, that's a huge blow.

 

Prediction: Colts 23 / Bears 16 (TBD based on Mack)
It's never fun to play on the road at Soldier Field, but it's easier when they have a dud for an offense. Not sure Foles changes that, and Reich knows him. Probably ends up somewhat low scoring game, but our offense, if allowed to pass, should be well balanced and too much for Chicago. Unless their passing O really takes off, I like us in the game by at least a touchdown. If Khalil Mack is out, I like us 10-14.
 

[danlhart87]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'll start using more 2020 ranks after W4 when we have a more mature set of #s.

 

Week 4
@Bears (#24)
2019 record: 8-8 (-18 Point differential)

 

2019 Offense
Offensive DVOA: 25th (Pass: 19 / Run: 29)
Total O - #29 (17th so far in 2020)
Total Pts - #29 (20th so far)
Pass O - #25 (23rd so far, and will be starting a new QB)
Rush O - #27 (11th so far)

 

2020 OL Ranking

PFF #11 up from #22 preseason ranking

Pressures allowed: 27
Rush yards before contact average: 1.6

 

2019 Defense
Defensive DVOA: 8th (Pass: 8 / Run: 13)
Total D - #8 (15th so far in 2020)
Total Pts - #4 (#9 so far)
Pass D - #9 (#17 so far)
Rush D - #9 (#17 so far)

 

Personnel

New Coaches: Bill Lazor, Offensive coordinator

 

Added: QB Nick Foles, EDGE Robert Quinn (68.5), TE Jimmy Graham, CB Artie Burns, WR Ted Ginn Jr.

Lost: CB Prince Amukamara (67.4), WR Taylor Gabriel, LB Nick Kwiatkoski (72.6), EDGE Leonard Floyd (69.37), S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (74.2), OG Kyle Long

 

Key Draft Picks: TE Cole Kmet, Notre Dame (43rd); CB Jaylon Johnson, Utah (50th)

 

Injuries: Khalil Mack is questionable and has been LP this week with a gimpy knee. He's the second highest graded pass rusher in the league, so would be huge if he's out or limited. Their safety depth is a little banged up. Their Offense is healthy. I'll update when final.

 

Comments:
Offense - I don't care if it's Tribusky or Foles, or who they have as OC, the Bears O will still be mediocre. They have improved to #17 in total yards so far this year, and starting a new QB, but just see them as a bottom 16 team regardless. Still a bit surprised they didn't try to bolster the OL and RBs. Kmet should give them a legit TE option early though, after having virtually no TE production last year. Not enough though.

 

Defense - Still good, but have taken steps back in both passing and run D. Regardless, it will be our O's biggest overall challenge so far. We'll likely need to pass more than the we have the past two weeks. If Khalil Mack is out or limited, that's a huge blow.

 

Prediction: Colts 23 / Bears 16 (TBD based on Mack)
It's never fun to play on the road at Soldier Field, but it's easier when they have a dud for an offense. Not sure Foles changes that, and Reich knows him. Probably ends up somewhat low scoring game, but our offense, if allowed to pass, should be well balanced and too much for Chicago. Unless their passing O really takes off, I like us in the game by at least a touchdown. If Khalil Mack is out, I like us 10-14.
 

I had no idea Mack was even injured 

[EastStreet]

9 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

I had no idea Mack was even injured 

Yup. LP every practice thus far. Can't be horrible, but can't be great either. Even if he's just "slowed", that would be very nice for us.

[danlhart87]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

Yup. LP every practice thus far. Can't be horrible, but can't be great either. Even if he's just "slowed", that would be very nice for us.

That would be HUGE for us.

[AZColt11]

MAN you have a lot of free time!

 

At any rate, good write up.  I had no idea Robert Quinn was with them.  Even without Mack it will be a stiffer test than what we've had lately.

[danlhart87]

I always say road games are tough but I know this years different with covid 

[EastStreet]

21 minutes ago, AZColt11 said:

MAN you have a lot of free time!

 

At any rate, good write up.  I had no idea Robert Quinn was with them.  Even without Mack it will be a stiffer test than what we've had lately.

lol, thanks AZ. 

Only took about 10 minutes. Copy/pastes, a little internet searching, and 5 minutes of opinion lol. I have all of the 2019 ranks and DVOAs on a scratch pad. The personnel stuff is summarized on several sites. I try to do most of my digging while I'm watching games. And I'm not too into the Denver/NYJs game :-)

[markabrown96]

Our o-line makes the big bucks for going against guys like Mack

[krunk]

I was looking at the cut up on stamepede blue.  Travathan and Roquan Smith get tied up a lot in the running game.

They are either getting tied up on blocks or not in the right spot on numerous occasions.  I think Taylor might have

some success running inside against them. 

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, krunk said:

I was looking at the cut up on stamepede blue.  Travathan and Roquan Smith get tied up a lot in the running game.

They are either getting tied up on blocks or not in the right spot on numerous occasions.  I think Taylor might have

some success running inside against them. 

Taylor should be fine. It would help though if Reich's game plan was more balanced and less predictable. 

As far as the front 7... 

Their 3 DLs are all in the 60s, so nothing special.  ILBs Trevathan's PFF is horrible, and Smith's is 50s which is poor.

Their OLBs are the only ones grading out well. 

[zibby43]

Good stuff @EastStreet

 

To add on to what you have already reported, while Mack's status is certainly something interesting to watch, he has been listed as a Limited Participant for every single Bears practice during the regular season (nursing a knee injury).

 

At this point, I think it's safe to assume he'll be active and getting plenty of snaps against the Colts. 

[krunk]

I almost feel like we could pull off a Jonas Gray on them the way their ILB play the run.  Line it up just like Bellichick did when the Pats came to Indy and stuffed it down our throat.  Knowing how unprepared Pagano is he probably hasn't even gone back and watched that old film.

[krunk]

These type of runs I think would work with Taylor and Wilkins against them. 

 

 

[coltsfan_canada]

9 minutes ago, krunk said:

These type of runs I think would work with Taylor and Wilkins against them. 

 

 

oh boy what was the colts D doing here? chopping woods maybe but agree would love Taylor to be like this smasher

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, zibby43 said:

Good stuff @EastStreet

 

To add on to what you have already reported, while Mack's status is certainly something interesting to watch, he has been listed as a Limited Participant for every single Bears practice during the regular season (nursing a knee injury).

 

At this point, I think it's safe to assume he'll be active and getting plenty of snaps against the Colts. 

I read a few reports, and at least one suggested he aggravated things vs the Giants, but was 90% of the snaps last weekend, and may have overdone it. Not sure what it is, but seems they'd rotate him more if it was too bad (so I agree with you). He's been 86%, 83%, 90%.  

1 minute ago, krunk said:

I almost feel like we could pull off a Jonas Gray on them the way their ILB play the run.  Line it up just like Bellichick did when the Pats came to Indy and stuffed it down our throat.  Knowing how unprepared Pagano is he probably hasn't even gone back and watched that old film.

I really don't want a run heavy game. Give me balance. Their DBs are all pretty average, and S depth are gimpy. 

[krunk]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

I read a few reports, and at least one suggested he aggravated things vs the Giants, but was 90% of the snaps last weekend, and may have overdone it. Not sure what it is, but seems they'd rotate him more if it was too bad (so I agree with you). He's been 86%, 83%, 90%.  

I really don't want a run heavy game. Give me balance. Their DBs are all pretty average, and S depth are gimpy. 

Ain't really talking about that.   I think we need to include some of these style runs in our game plan.   I don't think their inside backers play the run well. 

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, krunk said:

Ain't really talking about that.   I think we need to include some of these style runs in our game plan.   I don't think their inside backers play the run well. 

I'm for running against them in a power/man fashion, which would let Taylor be Taylor. So if you're talking about hat on hat type blocking, I'm with you. NE did that a lot, but not all the time, that game. Rook RBs typically take more time to get down zone scheme running, but can kill in a power/man scheme when they are just asked to hit the whole hard. 

 

[krunk]

10 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'm for running against them in a power/man fashion, which would let Taylor be Taylor. So if you're talking about hat on hat type blocking, I'm with you. NE did that a lot, but not all the time, that game. Rook RBs typically take more time to get down zone scheme running, but can kill in a power/man scheme when they are just asked to hit the whole hard. 

 

I'm talking about the power man blocking, trap blocking type stuff that I saw in those clips.  One of them I really like is when they do the trap block where the back follows behind the guard off the edge.  He's got a two way option where he can either flow outside or cut it back up inside.   The run is about at 1:41 time frame in the clip.  The pats ran it out of a 1 back set with an extra lineman on the edge.   That's one of the ones I'm talking about .  This clip 

 

[AZColt11]

Weather forecast is calling for rain Sunday morning maybe lasting into the start of the game.  Could be a difficult field come Sunday.  Hope the Colts bring the appropriate footwear......and gameplan.

[SteelCityColt]

Loving these summaries @EastStreet, keep up the good work.

[Myles]

i am hoping we see more passes to the RB's, especially Hines.  

[PManTheGreatest]

Bears run defense is trash. Taylor should have a field day

[Yoshinator]

25 minutes ago, PManTheGreatest said:

Bears run defense is trash. Taylor should have a field day

Bears run defense is 17th I believe. Average, but not trash. It is worse than their pass defense, which is 4th, so we should run on them. Taylor may get 100 yards rushing on Sunday.

[chad72]

30 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Bears run defense is 17th I believe. Average, but not trash. It is worse than their pass defense, which is 4th, so we should run on them. Taylor may get 100 yards rushing on Sunday.

 

Lots of wham blocks like the Patriots did to us under Pagano, he never adapted till about 4 or 5 games of receiving the same punishment. TY is not like Antonio Brown and is not in his prime, otherwise I would say that if Pagano puts a physical DB on a speedy WR like he did with Vontae Davis on Antonio Brown, I'd pick on that matchup. The run game with multiple TEs is the way to go.

[Hark]

Nice analysis @EastStreet. Well done.

[Dogg63]

I'm pretty sure @EastStreet nailed our Bears strategy in another thread:

 

Well, Chicago's D isn't tracking nearly as good as they were last year. 

They lost some solid DBs, so their run D is likely better than pass D.

Their OL is ranked 20s. Their TEs are good, WRs and RBs mediocre. 

 

So since their run D is likely their strength, I'm guessing we'll run more than pass like we did against a good run D last week lol. 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

 

Lots of wham blocks like the Patriots did to us under Pagano, he never adapted till about 4 or 5 games of receiving the same punishment. TY is not like Antonio Brown and is not in his prime, otherwise I would say that if Pagano puts a physical DB on a speedy WR like he did with Vontae Davis on Antonio Brown, I'd pick on that matchup. The run game with multiple TEs is the way to go.

Id like to see some of it incorporated into the game plan as well because Pagano is horrible at making adjustments. Id bet he hasnt even gone back and looked at this stuff

[chad72]

14 minutes ago, krunk said:

Id like to see some of it incorporated into the game plan as well because Pagano is horrible at making adjustments. Id bet he hasnt even gone back and looked at this stuff

 

Eddie Goldman along with Akiem Hicks made their interior run D one of the best last year. Once Akiem Hicks went down, their run D went down the drain last year. This year, Eddie Goldman opted out due to Covid reasons, thus making their run D mediocre again. That is why you run it against them and do not turn it over. If we do that, I am sure we should be able to handle Foles and come out with a W.

 

[Nickster]

10 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I'm for running against them in a power/man fashion, which would let Taylor be Taylor. So if you're talking about hat on hat type blocking, I'm with you. NE did that a lot, but not all the time, that game. Rook RBs typically take more time to get down zone scheme running, but can kill in a power/man scheme when they are just asked to hit the whole hard. 

 

 

Are you coming around on Taylor's limitations at all?  Not trying to start the great controversy again here, but I have been saying that JT's skillset begs for this type of traditional, downhill attack.  

 

The Colts haven't run much of this type of O in a long, long time.  Mudd was a zone blocking guy and Seems Frank is too.

 

I think to maximize JT talent, he needs a FB to follow.  I think the Colts must have thought long and hard about going to some of that because they had that fullback, but must have decided to not commit to it, probably because of Mack's success in the current system.

 

I don't know if you can just become a power team on the fly.  No way PR can be in the pistol, so it would have to come from under center.

[shakedownstreet]

Jonathan Taylor to slice up Bear's defense like a rolling ball of butcher knives

[Nickster]

6 minutes ago, shakedownstreet said:

Jonathan Taylor to slice up Bear's defense like a rolling ball of butcher knives

O no.  Don't use that phrase.

[krunk]

26 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Are you coming around on Taylor's limitations at all?  Not trying to start the great controversy again here, but I have been saying that JT's skillset begs for this type of traditional, downhill attack.  

 

The Colts haven't run much of this type of O in a long, long time.  Mudd was a zone blocking guy and Seems Frank is too.

 

I think to maximize JT talent, he needs a FB to follow.  I think the Colts must have thought long and hard about going to some of that because they had that fullback, but must have decided to not commit to it, probably because of Mack's success in the current system.

 

I don't know if you can just become a power team on the fly.  No way PR can be in the pistol, so it would have to come from under center.

Im not sure i agree with you. Zone blocking is not all that weve done under this OL coach. Weve done more zone stuff with him i believe due to the Denver influence but there have been times weve gone man and there were definitely times with this same line that we man blocked under Guglielmo

[Nickster]

16 minutes ago, krunk said:

Im not sure i agree with you. Zone blocking is not all that weve done under this OL coach. Weve done more zone stuff with him i believe due to the Denver influence but there have been times weve gone man and there were definitely times with this same line that we man blocked under Guglielmo

It's not all but it is the primary scheme I think.  

 

We run some man stuff, and I'm sure our guys can do it, but it does limit some of the stuff the Colts like to do with longer handoffs and lateral to the LOS running lanes.  Regardless of what type of blocking schemes are used, the Colts call a lot of runs that are not quick hitting downhill type runs, but are longer developing, find your hole type of thing.

 

And it will be interesting to see if we try more downhill running if it becomes as predictable as JT is in, their going downhill, Hines or Wilkens is in, there gonna stretch in out more.  

 

I think that Taylor would be a good candidate for an old school, 2 back set/Mr. Inside, Mr. Outside type of crap.  I can't think of anyone who does the 2 RB, not HB/FB type of thing, anymore.  There is some old stuff coming back into style, maybe this will too.  JT would be a hell of a lead blocker too.  You could sneak a back out of the backfield after faking a dive action.  

 

Can anyone think of a team which uses 2RBs together other than like the QB Jackson, Murray type of thing?

 

 

[krunk]

40 minutes ago, Nickster said:

It's not all but it is the primary scheme I think.  

 

We run some man stuff, and I'm sure our guys can do it, but it does limit some of the stuff the Colts like to do with longer handoffs and lateral to the LOS running lanes.  Regardless of what type of blocking schemes are used, the Colts call a lot of runs that are not quick hitting downhill type runs, but are longer developing, find your hole type of thing.

 

And it will be interesting to see if we try more downhill running if it becomes as predictable as JT is in, their going downhill, Hines or Wilkens is in, there gonna stretch in out more.  

 

I think that Taylor would be a good candidate for an old school, 2 back set/Mr. Inside, Mr. Outside type of crap.  I can't think of anyone who does the 2 RB, not HB/FB type of thing, anymore.  There is some old stuff coming back into style, maybe this will too.  JT would be a hell of a lead blocker too.  You could sneak a back out of the backfield after faking a dive action.  

 

Can anyone think of a team which uses 2RBs together other than like the QB Jackson, Murray type of thing?

 

 

I think Marlon Mack fits Strausser blocking scheme better than Taylor does. They need to add more power blocking for Taylor.

[shakedownstreet]

We could use two quarterbacks and call it a halfback

[Nickster]

1 minute ago, shakedownstreet said:

We could use two quarterbacks and call it a halfback

 

Please tip your watiresses and bartenders.

[coming on strong]

15 hours ago, coltsfan_canada said:

oh boy what was the colts D doing here? chopping woods maybe but agree would love Taylor to be like this smasher

a undisciplined and unprepared chuck pagano defense?  No way not with all that wood chopping going on.

[Dingus McGirt]

16 hours ago, krunk said:

I almost feel like we could pull off a Jonas Gray on them the way their ILB play the run.  Line it up just like Bellichick did when the Pats came to Indy and stuffed it down our throat.  Knowing how unprepared Pagano is he probably hasn't even gone back and watched that old film.

Well, after reading your comment...he’s on it now!

[EastStreet]

9 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

Loving these summaries @EastStreet, keep up the good work.

Thanks buddy. Will do as time allows. I'll be going with current 2020 stats going forward, so will take a little more time. If you have any special requests, let me know (as long as I can find the stats for free lol).

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, Dogg63 said:

I'm pretty sure @EastStreet nailed our Bears strategy in another thread:

 

Well, Chicago's D isn't tracking nearly as good as they were last year. 

They lost some solid DBs, so their run D is likely better than pass D.

Their OL is ranked 20s. Their TEs are good, WRs and RBs mediocre. 

 

So since their run D is likely their strength, I'm guessing we'll run more than pass like we did against a good run D last week lol. 

I just don't want them to put in on Taylor's back. Need some nice balance, and all will be good IMO. I will be cussing though if I see Hines running between the tackles on goal line...