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With the 13th pick in 2020 NFL Draft (merge)


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39 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

The chances of us ever being in a position to get the top one or two QB is small . We don’t need that honestly. SF has JImmy G who was a second round pick and they are a SB favorite. We are spoiled because we got very lucky to have two generational QB for 20 years. We need a very good QB. That’s it. Plus you never know who is going to turn into a star. Why was Trabisky drafted before Mahomes and Watson. Just because we can’t  get the top one or two doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take a QB with the 13th pick.

I'm on the fence. If the qb you like will still be there at 34 then I'd take the best player available  at 13 whether that be Dt, wr, or cb If not draft the qb at 13 or trade back if you don't  think they are worth 13

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2 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

I dont understand the urge people are getting to get anyone who is better than JB for the sake that hes somewhat better. If you want SBs we need someone quite a bit better than current JB imo. 

If we had a qb that can see blitzers  presnap and throw to the open guy deep or short that would be a huge improvement 

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43 minutes ago, Stephen said:

I'm on the fence. If the qb you like will still be there at 34 then I'd take the best player available  at 13 whether that be Dt, wr, or cb If not draft the qb at 13 or trade back if you don't  think they are worth 13

You never know how long a player will last. If their is a guy they love  at 13 you take them. QB is the position you don’t wait on. Just depends how much you love a QB.

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We have many options

 

1) We go Love or Herbert with 13, 

 

OR

 

2) We get Carr and draft a WR, DT, or OT at 13

 

OR

 

3) We go BPA (OT, WR< or DT), and trade in to bottom of 1 before NE, and take Love / or Gordon later

 

OR

 

4) Tua slips past Miami (Cant see it) and we trade picks to get him..... If we LOVE TUA,.......Detroit has MANY holes to fill, and before Miami...... Maybe..... Prolly not

 

 

The season ended on a downer, but.......   we were decent with what became a poor QB.   We have holes to fill at QB, WR, DT, and OT.  Not 7-8 spots

 

We may see more substancial trades this year to fill these 4 spots.

 

But.....

 

As long as we have a QB to develop or a vet that actually can win........   I am happy 

 

I guess, I am not too picky :)

 

 

 

 

 

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Some of the thoughts in this thread are head scratchers. 

 

Sure, many would love to have Burrow, and he's the best prospect.........., but a good portion of the top 10 or so NFL QBRs from this year are from guys who were drafted later than our 13th pick. I'd guess the majority of playoff QBs were picked later than 13th. 

 

In short, We don't need a #1 pick to get a good QB. This is where Ballard needs to earn his pay and pick the guy at 13th or 34th who will that next guy. Or even a move up to 4th or so would be fine.

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17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Some of the thoughts in this thread are head scratchers. 

 

Sure, many would love to have Burrow, and he's the best prospect.........., but a good portion of the top 10 or so NFL QBRs from this year are from guys who were drafted later than our 13th pick. I'd guess the majority of playoff QBs were picked later than 13th. 

 

In short, We don't need a #1 pick to get a good QB. This is where Ballard needs to earn his pay and pick the guy at 13th or 34th who will that next guy. Or even a move up to 4th or so would be fine.

sf, Saints, Green Bay, vikings, NE, ravens, Seahawks 

 

Those drafted around where we pick or higher 

Mahomes, Watson, Tannehill , bills,wentz 

 

So except for a couple you don’t even need the one or two pick to get a star QB. Only one was drafted in the top 2. You can almost say the 1st and 2nd picks have a high rate of being a bust.

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15 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

sf, Saints, Green Bay, vikings, NE, ravens, Seahawks 

 

Those drafted around where we pick or higher 

Mahomes, Watson, Tannehill , bills,

 

So except for a couple you don’t even need the one or two pick to get a star QB.

Its is an ODDS thing.....

 

SURE..... Tom Brady wasnt drafted in the first round

 

The MATH says that your odds of getting a QB that will take you to playoffs are MUCH better, earlier in the first round and earlier in the draft

 

You are looking a less than 37% hit rate on QBs from a recent article for draft success in the FIRST ROUND only 

 

CB will be doing his homework that next few months...... 

 

I am quite sure we will get another QB to develop....

 

Will HE be successful? Who knows

 

I have faith in CB

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

sf, Saints, Green Bay, vikings, NE, ravens, Seahawks 

 

Those drafted around where we pick or higher 

Mahomes, Watson, Tannehill , bills,wentz 

 

So except for a couple you don’t even need the one or two pick to get a star QB. Only one was drafted in the top 2. You can almost say the 1st and 2nd picks have a high rate of being a bust.

And there's several of the top 10 drafted way after as well. 

 

I did a breakdown of the top 10 QBs (QBR ratings) in one of the threads, and only a few were top 10 draft picks. It was earlier this season, so things could have changed. I should do a new one with QBR, yards/game, and playoff team.

 

Folks get enamored with the top guys from the top scores when in reality a very good portion of top QBs don't come from those areas.

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It really is about the organization and the talent they surround a QB with.  Then add coaching that can develop a young QB.  No way so many high draft picks are failures because they were bad. So much of it is a bad organization and not getting them the talent. 

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13 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

Its is an ODDS thing.....

 

SURE..... Tom Brady wasnt drafted in the first round

 

The MATH says that your odds of getting a QB that will take you to playoffs are MUCH better, earlier in the first round and earlier in the draft

 

You are looking a less than 37% hit rate on QBs from a recent article for draft success in the FIRST ROUND only 

 

CB will be doing his homework that next few months...... 

 

I am quite sure we will get another QB to develop....

 

Will HE be successful? Who knows

 

I have faith in CB

 

it's an odds thing with every position, but the current reality is that most of the top QBs in the NFL were not taken top 5

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Right now I think we might have a few choices at 13 at QB. Love, Eason, maybe Herbert.  I think Herbert goes out of our range. If AC doesn’t retire we can give up a pick to move up and maybe take him. If he does and we can’t find a FA LT we need all our picks. Chargers need oline help bad. They may decide to take a tackle instead of a QB.  Maybe with all the change in Carolina they stick with Newton instead of drafting a QB. There is so much unknown until we start hearing rumors and draft day comes. 

 

Then there is the FA QB market. Does bridgewater move on. Does Derek Carr get traded. I don’t think Carr gets traded before the draft. That would be dumb on their part. Some of these QB needy teams might find a QB in FA. Rivers could stay in LA and they get oline help. 

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What about trying to get a veteran QB, trade for a guy, or an FA and draft some legit skill players? Put TY, hopefully a healthy Parris Campbell, a guy like Jeudy or Lamb, and a young TE like Cole Kmet from ND or Brycen Hopkins from Purdue. I honestly think that would give us a chance to compete maybe moreso than throwing darts at guys like Herbert and Love. 

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1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

So except for a couple you don’t even need the one or two pick to get a star QB. Only one was drafted in the top 2. You can almost say the 1st and 2nd picks have a high rate of being a bust.

 

The other day you were saying this organization was "falling apart" because we weren't picking in the top 10 and were going to miss out on the star QBs...  :scratch:

 

33 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

It really is about the organization and the talent they surround a QB with.  Then add coaching that can develop a young QB.  No way so many high draft picks are failures because they were bad. So much of it is a bad organization and not getting them the talent. 

 

Andrew Luck did pretty good considering the situation he was thrust into with a poor team and Grigson/Pagano as his GM/HC.  On the flip-side, Mariota didn't do as well on a team with a good running game and defense.  :dunno:

 

You're like a human yo-yo, making a generalization one day, then making the complete opposite generalization the next day...  it's like you're always dealing in absolutes, but you go from one stance to the opposite one based on what tweets you happen to read that day...  :facepalm:

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13 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

What about trying to get a veteran QB, trade for a guy, or an FA and draft some legit skill players? Put TY, hopefully a healthy Parris Campbell, a guy like Jeudy or Lamb, and a young TE like Cole Kmet from ND or Brycen Hopkins from Purdue. I honestly think that would give us a chance to compete maybe moreso than throwing darts at guys like Herbert and Love. 

I would be ok for a trade with a guy like Carr. Especially since a lot of his money has already been paid. I don’t think I would like paying a FA though like bridgewater because that would be a lot of money and if it fails you are in a bad situation. Having a young exciting QB with some exciting young weapons could be really fun. I think the organization needs something exciting and fun and some new blood.

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10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I would be ok for a trade with a guy like Carr. Especially since a lot of his money has already been paid. I don’t think I would like paying a FA though like bridgewater because that would be a lot of money and if it fails you are in a bad situation. Having a young exciting QB with some exciting young weapons could be really fun. I think the organization needs something exciting and fun and some new blood.

 

I agree with a lot of that, infusion of young exciting players, not only for the team but the fanbase and ticket holders.

 

I just don't want them to feel pressured to spend that pick on a quarterback just to get a quarterback. If a guy like Tua or Herbert somehow falls, or Ballard and Co somehow see something amazing in a guy and deems them "can't miss", then so be it. I just don't want them to take a guy and feel "eh" about him in hopes that they can create wine from water. 

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55 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

it's an odds thing with every position, but the current reality is that most of the top QBs in the NFL were not taken top 5

We aren't in top 5.......  why is that relative ?

 

The odds of a QB flaming out in round one would appear to be MUCH higher than, lets  say an

OL or DL

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I agree with a lot of that, infusion of young exciting players, not only for the team but the fanbase and ticket holders.

 

I just don't want them to feel pressured to spend that pick on a quarterback just to get a quarterback. If a guy like Tua or Herbert somehow falls, or Ballard and Co somehow see something amazing in a guy and deems them "can't miss", then so be it. I just don't want them to take a guy and feel "eh" about him in hopes that they can create wine from water. 

I guarantee they won’t pass up a stud at another position and take a QB unless they are in love with that QB.  But if they love a QB you have to take them there. Hopefully some holes can be filled on defense in FA. There is going to be some very good WR though at 13. Once we get more into draft season and the combine I am sure things will become clearer on quarterbacks. 

 

Although Carr would be a big upgrade I am not sure he would inject excitement in the fan base. Him with Hines and Campbell and that quick release would be golden.We have some young exciting players on defense. Now time to inject some life into the offense. 

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34 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I guarantee they won’t pass up a stud at another position and take a QB unless they are in love with that QB.  But if they love a QB you have to take them there. Hopefully some holes can be filled on defense in FA. There is going to be some very good WR though at 13. Once we get more into draft season and the combine I am sure things will become clearer on quarterbacks. 

 

Although Carr would be a big upgrade I am not sure he would inject excitement in the fan base. Him with Hines and Campbell and that quick release would be golden.We have some young exciting players on defense. Now time to inject some life into the offense. 

 

I'd be fine with Carr honestly, and if they took say Lamb at 13 he'd have plenty of weapons...TY, Parris Campbell, Ceedee Lamb, Mack/Hines, and Doyle +. 

 

Would depend on what he wants contract wise, he's just 28 years old (he turns 29 in March), so he should have at least 5 good years in him barring injury. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I'd be fine with Carr honestly, and if they took say Lamb at 13 he'd have plenty of weapons...TY, Parris Campbell, Ceedee Lamb, Mack/Hines, and Doyle +. 

 

Would depend on what he wants contract wise, he's just 28 years old (he turns 29 in March), so he should have at least 5 good years in him barring injury. 

I think if we could snag Carr for say a 3rd rounder, that’d be the best move for a QB unless Tua was available and he was fully healthy. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I'd be fine with Carr honestly, and if they took say Lamb at 13 he'd have plenty of weapons...TY, Parris Campbell, Ceedee Lamb, Mack/Hines, and Doyle +. 

 

Would depend on what he wants contract wise, he's just 28 years old (he turns 29 in March), so he should have at least 5 good years in him barring injury. 

We wouldn’t need to sign him. It would be. Trade. His contract I believe is through 2023. The good thing Oakland has already paid a lot of his contact and signing bonus.

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2 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Wish they were smart enough to draft BPA this year at positions of need, and sh*ttank next year hard enough to get Lawrence or Fields. That would be the ideal scenario, I'd say we would legit be a title contender their rookie year's. This all contingent upon the fact we draft well this year and plug a couple holes. 

The only way to really tank is trade away players. This team is never going to tank on purpose. Bottom line you don’t need one of the high picks to get a great QB.

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11 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

I am leaning with EasyStreet on the opinion that Oakland will not trade Carr. 

That's if Gruden learned anything from his past, he will draft around Carr. 

If they draft a QB I could see them keeping him for at least a year and letting a draft pick sit.  They also will not trade him before the draft.

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5 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

Wish they were smart enough to draft BPA this year at positions of need, and sh*ttank next year hard enough to get Lawrence or Fields. That would be the ideal scenario, I'd say we would legit be a title contender their rookie year's. This all contingent upon the fact we draft well this year and plug a couple holes. 

If the Colts tanked they would lose more fans than they would even playing like they did this year. 

Tanking is for losers with loser mentality's. 

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2 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

If the Colts tanked they would lose more fans than they would even playing like they did this year. 

Tanking is for losers with loser mentality's. 

 

Lose fans? Not real ones. Anybody with half a brain would understand the obvious payoff, I would happily take 1 single year on the chin for another generational quarterback. That would mean 15 more years of playoffs and SB contention...and the cost is one really bad year? C'mon.

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3 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

Lose fans? Not real ones. Anybody with half a brain would understand the obvious payoff, I would happily take 1 single year on the chin for another generational quarterback. That would mean 15 more years of playoffs and SB contention...and the cost is one really bad year? C'mon.

The object of the game is to play to win. End of story.

Irsay would never agree to tanking anyway so you are wasting your breath even talking about it. 

Good teams find ways to get better and tanking is not what they do. 

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Another reason you don’ wait on a guy like Love if you think he is your guy. Just saw another mock that has the saints taking Love. Both the saints and Patriots are going to be looking for a future QB soon.  Watching what the saints do with Bridgewater before the draft could give a big clue if they want a QB.  There are a couple teams that have aging Qb that are picking late and would probably take him. 

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27 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

If the Colts tanked they would lose more fans than they would even playing like they did this year. 

Tanking is for losers with loser mentality's. 

 

 Why do you think Painter started so many games. It was a clear tank. 
Orlovsky starting would have lost us the 1st pick. 
 No, Irsay would not go for such a tank in our current situation, but he would sure like to have the 1st pick in 2021.

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1 hour ago, crazycolt1 said:

I am leaning with EasyStreet on the opinion that Oakland will not trade Carr. 

That's if Gruden learned anything from his past, he will draft around Carr. 

You never know with Gruden.  I just read an article where they were saying Carr is laid back and  doesn't mesh with Gruden.  He wants a fiery type of QB.  Supposedly Gruden has told Carr to get angry with his teammates if necessary.  Cuss them out if you're not happy with their effort.  I was also told by a Raiders fan that Carr is very religious and will not go down that road.  Not the first image that comes to mind when you think of the Raiders.  So who knows.  

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For those that say "we have to have an early first round QB", here's an AV (approximate value) stat by round for all positions. For QB, there's not a lot, if any, difference in 1st and 2nd round. Link to article farther below. Not saying you don't go after one early, but as we see (current NFL results) plenty of stars outside of the first five picks.

 

image.thumb.png.e201390937c6599b16d7c5fee298fa02.png

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

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3 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

We aren't in top 5.......  why is that relative ?

we could easily trade to 4th or 5th with our current draft capital, so it's very relevant if that's what Ballard wanted to do. 

3 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

The odds of a QB flaming out in round one would appear to be MUCH higher than, lets  say an

OL or DL

Here are two great sites/studies on approximate value (position by round), and bust vs pro bowl by position in the first round. As you can see QB bust rate is a tad bit higher than DL, but the pro bowl rate for QB is also higher. OL is also safer from a bust perspective, but also less of a chance of a PB type player than QB too. So it's a mixed bag.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

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2 hours ago, crazycolt1 said:

I am leaning with EasyStreet on the opinion that Oakland will not trade Carr. 

That's if Gruden learned anything from his past, he will draft around Carr. 

Take a look at Carr's QB chart for the season. One of the better in the league.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/season/derek-carr/CAR358797/2019/season/qb-grid

 

he's also 10th in QBR, and that's with a crappy supporting cast.

 

IMO, Gruden would be stupid to move on from him after that contract extension he signed. Trying to move that contract would also be very hard if you're also asking for draft capital to go with it.

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5 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

I saw today the wake forest QB is transferring and not going into the draft. 

I'm assuming he already has a school picked out. If he goes to the right school, it could be a very good move. If if he goes to the wrong school, could be very bad. His stock was rising.

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