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With the 13th pick in 2020 NFL Draft (merge)


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7 minutes ago, runthepost said:

That’s like saying Barkley wasn’t going to be good. A few posters were saying that 

I'm confused when you throw Barkley in. I didn't say Lamb would not be good, I was questioning your assertion that  because the guys you mentioned were doing well that Lamb would do well. Just because a guy is good in college does not guarantee he will be good in the oros.

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1 minute ago, PeterBowman said:

There is a very good chance a top tier receiver or top tier D lineman will be available at 13. 

Drafting for need for the sake of drafting a qb will hurt the team even more 

Exactly.  Very good post.

 

I think this forum understands the concept and value of BPA, but there seems to be an atmosphere of comments that suggest an elite Qb can be picks at #13 because its pick #13.  That he will be elite simply because he's picked at 13.

 

There may not be a first round quality QB left by pick 13, and the Qb sitting there at pick 34 might not be elite.  In fact, he probably wont be.

 

So all of the JB haters who just want him fired may be disappointed.  Firing someone is easy.  Its finding a player who is better than who you just fired is the hard part. Those players aren't just floating out there waiting to be signed by someone and the teams that have those players often don't want to give them up. 

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7 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Exactly.  Very good post.

 

I think this forum understands the concept and value of BPA, but there seems to be an atmosphere of comments that suggest an elite Qb can be picks at #13 because its pick #13.  That he will be elite simply because he's picked at 13.

 

There may not be a first round quality QB left by pick 13, and the Qb sitting there at pick 34 might not be elite.  In fact, he probably wont be.

 

So all of the JB haters who just want him fired may be disappointed.  Firing someone is easy.  Its finding a player who is better than who you just fired is the hard part. Those players aren't just floating out there waiting to be signed by someone and the teams that have those players often don't want to give them up. 

If Brissett is fired should be easy finding someone that’s better than him. 

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Just now, boo2202 said:

If Brissett is fired should be easy finding someone that’s better than him. 

Case Keenum? 

 

Ryan Fitzpatick might be available.  

 

Both of those Qbs seem to always be available.

 

Andy Dalton?  Certainly the Bengals would move on from Dalton if they drafted Burrow.

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18 minutes ago, DougDew said:

CIN will take one.  After WASH, DET, and NYG,   Then comes MIA, LAC, and CAR in a row.  MIA will probably take one. Three teams for sure.  Maybe 4.

 

I could see the JAGS roll with Minshew and build a team around him.  What guarantee is there that any college QB will be better than Minshew?  And they have Foles.

 

We pick at 13, and that's a long ways up to picks 2 through 4, outbidding other teams that may move up a couple of slots to be sure to get the QB they want.

 

Burrow, Herbert, and Eason are probably the top 3 QBs and will be after the combine. 

 

Is Love, Tua, or Fromm worth pick 13?  

I could see the Chargers taking Tau and re-signing Rivers or another QB to a short deal.  I wouldn’t rule out Miami taking Tau either.  That’s assuming he turns pro.  If he doesn’t right now I think only Burrow and Herbert are worth that high of a pick and the Colts would be better off to try to get another player to help them getting a QB in round two. 

 

Miami is a wild card because they could take another position at number four and take a QB later in the first.  

 

The Chargers clearly have to make a choice with Rivers as do the Panthers with Newton.  Once we get those answers we will have a better idea what’s going to happen.  It’s also possible one of them could sign Rivers or Brady as well as could the Colts if they think they are an elite QB away.  

 

I don’t think Eason goes in round one.  If he does I think it would be late in the first round.  I’d think one of Eason, Love, and, Fromm would be there at 34 assuming the Colts go QB.  

 

I agree I think the Jags taking a QB is unlikely for the reasons you said but I just don’t think you can 100% rule it out.

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17 minutes ago, IndyEric07 said:

Just for s&g’s, what would the Colts have to give up to get Jeaux Beaureaux?

I doubt the Bengals have any interest in trading that pick for several reasons. He’s the best QB in this draft being one of them plus the fact he’s from Ohio gives the Bengals a face of their franchise that will appeal to fans.  That’s something they haven’t had in a long time.  So baring a significant injury or him just being a disaster in combines I don’t see a way the Bengals trade that pick.

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3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I could see the Chargers taking Tau and re-signing Rivers or another QB to a short deal.  I wouldn’t rule out Miami taking Tau either.  That’s assuming he turns pro.  If he doesn’t right now I think only Burrow and Herbert are worth that high of a pick and the Colts would be better off to try to get another player to help them getting a QB in round two. 

 

Miami is a wild card because they could take another position at number four and take a QB later in the first.  

 

The Chargers clearly have to make a choice with Rivers as do the Panthers with Newton.  Once we get those answers we will have a better idea what’s going to happen.  It’s also possible one of them could sign Rivers or Brady as well as could the Colts if they think they are an elite QB away.  

 

I don’t think Eason goes in round one.  If he does I think it would be late in the first round.  I’d think one of Eason, Love, and, Fromm would be there at 34 assuming the Colts go QB.  

 

I agree I think the Jags taking a QB is unlikely for the reasons you said but I just don’t think you can 100% rule it out.

I could be wrong, but I don't recall a QB that is thought to have elite potential ever fall to 13.  I know Lamar did, but he fell because no other team thought he was elite.  Same with Mahomes.  

 

For us to get an elite QB at 13, Ballard would have to see something other GMs do not.  I like him as a GM, but I don't think he's that smart to see something that another GM won't take ahead of him.

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1 minute ago, DougDew said:

I could be wrong, but I don't recall a QB that is thought to have elite potential ever fall to 13.  I know Lamar did, but he fell because no other team thought he was elite.  Same with Mahomes.  

 

For us to get an elite QB at 13, Ballard would have to see something other GMs do not.  I like him as a GM, but I don't think he's that smart to see something that another GM won't take ahead of him.

I am just comment on how it stands right now.  

 

Honestly, I am not sure if any of these guys outside of maybe Burrow or Tau (who has injury concerns) is going to be thought of as elite.  The rest have holes that could very well make them fall.  

 

Realistically the Colts would probably have to pay a huge price to go up to number four which I don’t think they will do or hope someone slips and try to go up and get a guy if they are a sold on a guy.  

 

Honestly, I am starting to think most likely they will take another position at 13 and grab one of the second tear QBs at 34 if they want one.

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am just comment on how it stands right now.  

 

Honestly, I am not sure if any of these guys outside of maybe Burrow or Tau (who has injury concerns) is going to be thought of as elite.  The rest have holes that could very well make them fall.  

 

Realistically the Colts would probably have to pay a huge price to go up to number four which I don’t think they will do or hope someone slips and try to go up and get a guy if they are a sold on a guy.  

 

Honestly, I am starting to think most likely they will take another position at 13 and grab one of the second tear QBs at 34 if they want one.

I am looking forward to watching the Oregon game. And the draft board always changes with combine, pro days and individual workouts. It's still early to judge exactly how this years college QB class will grade out.

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Just now, 1959Colts said:

I am looking forward to watching the Oregon game. And the draft board always changes with combine, pro days and individual workouts. It's still early to judge exactly how this years college QB class will grade out.

Yes it is but seeing as I can’t see the future I am just commenting on how things as they stand now.  It can clearly and will change drastically between now and the draft.

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What do you guys think of getting a Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw, assuming one of them is available at No.13 first??

 

Then, what would you think if we packaged both our 2nd rounders to move back into the second half of the first round to get Jordan Love or Justin Herbert at QB and gain an extra 3rd??

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11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

What do you guys think of getting a Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw, assuming one of them is available at No.13 first??

 

Then, what would you think if we packaged both our 2nd rounders to move back into the second half of the first round to get Jordan Love or Justin Herbert at QB and gain an extra 3rd??

I would love to get Brown and Love with this scenario. We'd probably get an extra 4th instead of a 3rd though.

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2 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I would love to get Brown and Love with this scenario. We'd probably get an extra 4th instead of a 3rd though.

 

The Redskins pick No.34 is a powerful one. Trading both our 2nd rounders nets us at No.14 or 15 and if we pick again close to No.18-20, could easily net us a 3rd rounder if done with the right team.

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18 minutes ago, chad72 said:

What do you guys think of getting a Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw, assuming one of them is available at No.13 first??

 

Then, what would you think if we packaged both our 2nd rounders to move back into the second half of the first round to get Jordan Love or Justin Herbert at QB and gain an extra 3rd??

I am not so sure you won’t be able to get Love at 34.  

 

I doubt Herbert makes it to 13 let alone later, especially if Tau goes back to school.

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1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

The Redskins pick No.34 is a powerful one. Trading both our 2nd rounders nets us at No.14 or 15 and if we pick close to No.18-20, could easily net us a 3rd rounder if done with the right team.

That'd work. Love to do that with a team like the Broncos who pick 15 or the Raiders with multiple 1sts in the teens. Both teams have multiple 3rds I believe as well.

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am not so sure you won’t be able to get Love at 34.  

 

I doubt Herbert makes it to 13 let alone later, especially if Tau goes back to school.

 

a) If you are sold on the QB you are getting after doing your due diligence, pundit and analyst ratings will not matter. See Daniel Jones that got picked up at No.6, it happens all the time.

 

b) 5th year option for a QB is an invaluable tool you will have access to for the rookie contract if you get back into the 1st round

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2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

a) If you are sold on the QB you are getting after doing your due diligence, pundit and analyst ratings will not matter. See Daniel Jones that got picked up at No.6, it happens all the time.

 

b) 5th year option for a QB is an invaluable tool you will have access to for the rookie contract if you get back into the 1st round

Yep, I wish we had a 5th year option for Darius Leonard.

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5 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

a) If you are sold on the QB you are getting after doing your due diligence, pundit and analyst ratings will not matter. See Daniel Jones that got picked up at No.6, it happens all the time.

 

b) 5th year option for a QB is an invaluable tool you will have access to for the rookie contract if you get back into the 1st round

Part of the reason the Giants took Jones where they did was they were stuck there and unable to move back.  

 

The fifth year option would be nice but not worth overdrafting a guy for.

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10 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Part of the reason the Giants took Jones where they did was they were stuck there and unable to move back.  

 

The fifth year option would be nice but not worth overdrafting a guy for.

 

It ultimately depends on their valuation. QBs are slightly and typically overvalued, and if we don't move up, we can stick to our principles and watch some other team move up and get the QB we want. Both Chiefs and Texans moved up for Mahomes (from 27th to 10th) and Watson, the Ravens moved back into last pick of Round 1 for Lamar Jackson. Just because we now have the benefit of hindsight, even if any of those QBs did not work out nearly as well, they'd still have been market value moves for QBs. 

 

Like I said, your evaluation of Jordan Love nor mine matter, if the decision makers feel he is worth No.19 (for example), they will move up if necessary back into Round 1 because it is a premium position.

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1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Me too but not if it meant they had to give up Smith or Turey to get it which they would have had to do.

I believe we drafted Leonard at 36, so it would probably cost a 3rd to move up. That would of been Tyquan Lewis before the trade up. He might bust, but I'd rather have Lewis just in case. We'll pay Leonard.

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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I believe we drafted Leonard at 36, so it would probably cost a 3rd to move up. That would of been Tyquan Lewis before the trade up. He might bust, but I'd rather have Lewis just in case. We'll pay Leonard.

I know you know a lot about college players. What do you think about that WR from Liberty, Gandy-Golden? He looks like Moss, not as fast but still 4.5 speed and 6'4 so he has size. I like him.

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6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

It ultimately depends on their valuation. QBs are slightly and typically overvalued, and if we don't move up, we can stick to our principles and watch some other team move up and get the QB we want. Both Chiefs and Texans moved up for Mahomes (from 27th to 10th) and Watson, the Ravens moved back into last pick of Round 1 for Lamar Jackson. Just because we now have the benefit of hindsight, even if any of those QBs did not work out nearly as well, they'd still have been market value moves for QBs. 

 

Like I said, your evaluation of Jordan Love nor mine matter, if the decision makers feel he is worth No.19 (for example), they will move up if necessary. 

I am sure they would.  I am just saying I don’t know if he will be valued that high.  Some mocks I’ve seen see the Colts getting Love with their second second pick.  If he’s valued there they could easily get him at 34.  

 

Part of the draft is playing poker and resisting the urge to over draft.  If you think a guys value is in the 30s you don’t give up a lot to go get him in the teens.  Now if you think his value is in the teens then sure you move up and go get him.

 

Like you said though, a big part of that is the value the team puts on a guy and that’s something we will never know unless they draft him.

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I believe we drafted Leonard at 36, so it would probably cost a 3rd to move up. That would of been Tyquan Lewis before the trade up. He might bust, but I'd rather have Lewis just in case. We'll pay Leonard.

Lewis we traded back in the second round to get.  So I don’t think a third a lone would have gotten us back into the first to get him.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I know you know a lot about college players. What do you think about that WR from Liberty, Gandy-Golden? He looks like Moss, not as fast but still 4.5 speed and 6'4 so he has size. I like him.

One of my best-friends loves him and he is his super sleeper at WR in the draft. This is the same guy who was telling me about Leonard after round 1 in 2018 and has a friend who knows him from South Carolina. So take that for what it's worth! :thmup:

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4 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am sure they would.  I am just saying I don’t know if he will be valued that high.  Some mocks I’ve seen see the Colts getting Love with their second second pick.  If he’s valued there they could easily get him at 34.  

 

Part of the draft is playing poker and resisting the urge to over draft.  If you think a guys value is in the 30s you don’t give up a lot to go get him in the teens.  Now if you think his value is in the teens then sure you move up and go get him.

 

Like you said though, a big part of that is the value the team puts on a guy and that’s something we will never know unless they draft him.

Yep. Of course a GM's board is vastly different from draft experts (for better or worse). I'm sure that draft range for Love will be narrowed after pro days, combines, and interviews.

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4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

One of my best-friends loves him and he is his super sleeper at WR in the draft. This is the same guy who was telling me about Leonard after round 1 in 2018 and has a friend who knows him from South Carolina. So take that for what it's worth! :thmup:

Yeah that is my sleeper too. He looks awesome, I think because he is playing lesser comp he is being over looked?

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah that is my sleeper too. He looks awesome, I think because he is playing lesser comp he is being over looked?

Definitely a reason. He looks legit though, and I'm curious how the combine will affect his draft status. He's a round 3 guy to me.

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8 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Yep. Of course a GM's board is vastly different from draft experts (for better or worse). I'm sure that draft range for Love will be narrowed after pro days, combines, and interviews.

Oh yeah right now everything is still up in the air.  Still all it takes is one team to fall in love with a guy.  Like Leonard.  He wasn’t on many if anyone’s boards to go where he did but he was on the Colts there.  

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7 hours ago, IinD said:

Any game wreckers on D that might be there at #13?. We only + about the offense, but that D is definitely thirsty for a force at DT or DE.

 

I think they'd be able to potentially find a good QB prospect with that 33/34? pick.

 

Maybe Derrick Brown (IDL - Auburn) but probably not.  More likely would be AJ Epenesa (EDGE, Iowa), Yetor Gross-Matos (EDGE, PSU), Javon Kinlaw (IDL, S. carolina), Curtis Weaver (EDGE, Boise State) or K'Lavon Chaisson (EDGE, LSU), though I think we could trade back and take them closer to pick 20.  

 

A few possible WRs are CeeDee Lamb (WR, OKLA), Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson), Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama), Henry Ruggs III (WR, Alabama), or Lavinska Shenault (WR, Colorado).  Kind of doubt Lamb or Jeudy will be there at 13, and think we could drop back a few slots to get most of the others.

 

A few possible DBs are Grant Delpit (S, LSU -- not sure we need a S, but the dude is a stud), Kristian Fulton (CB, LSU), CJ Henderson (CB, Florida).. again, we could maybe trade back a couple picks for any of these three.

 

Pretty solid OL talent in round 1 as well (I don't know we need a 1st rounder, but I'd really like to see us upgrade Glowinski).  

 

After Burrows, I don't see any QBs being a long-term franchise QB.  I have my doubts that any of them could beat out Jacoby.  

 

I'm somewhat expecting us to trade back in round 1 to get an additional 2nd round pick.  With the way this draft is stacked, I think we can really improve our WRs, DL and secondary with 4 picks in the first 2 rounds.  

 

7 hours ago, CR91 said:

If Tua or Herbert get within the top ten, I'd trade up. Shouldn't take a lot to move up a few spots

 

Don't think Tua's going to translate into the pros, TBH.  I don't even think he'll wind up entering the draft this year, anyway.  And I don't see Herbert as a sure fire upgrade to Brissett.   

 

I'd personally rather see us fill holes in other areas of the roster than waste a pick on a mediocre QB.  Aside from Burrow,  I don't think any QB in this draft is a sure shot franchise guy.

 

7 hours ago, Joecolt15 said:

Do you take a chance on an injury Tua?

 

 

No.

 

7 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

The best QB on the board because Brissett is NOT the answer.

 

We're in far worse position if we take a mediocre QB in the draft and avoid filling holes at other glaring needs than we are if we keep the mediocre Brissett and build around him for a year before either signing a top end FA or trying to get a franchise guy (we're unlikely to have the #1 pick next year, but aside from Burrow this year the only other franchise QB I'm seeing in college is T. Lawerence from Clemson and he's not going to be eligible 'til next year).  Maybe a guy like Fromm will fall to the 34th or 44th pick, but I don't see anyone after Burrows (going #1) being worthy of a first round pick at QB in this draft.

 

4 hours ago, Mr.Debonair said:


18 for 127 and 1 TD, tells me he wasn’t a factor even when he did play 

 

He showed his flashes.  He didn't play much.  He definitely seemed to be improving but he couldn't stay healthy.  

 

He was drafted as a project pick anyway.  His major issue is going to be staying healthy next year, but I think Reich will figure out a way to make him a threat in the offense (maybe not just as a WR but as a multi-faceted threat who lines up all over the place).

 

4 hours ago, DougDew said:

CIN will take one.  After WASH, DET, and NYG,   Then comes MIA, LAC, and CAR in a row.  MIA will probably take one. Three teams for sure.  Maybe 4.

 

I could see the JAGS roll with Minshew and build a team around him.  What guarantee is there that any college QB will be better than Minshew?  And they have Foles.

 

We pick at 13, and that's a long ways up to picks 2 through 4, outbidding other teams that may move up a couple of slots to be sure to get the QB they want.

 

Burrow, Herbert, and Eason are probably the top 3 QBs and will be after the combine. 

 

Is Love, Tua, or Fromm worth pick 13?  

 

I don't think Love, Tua or Fromm are worth 13.  I don't think Tua's going to pan out in the NFL, I didn't think so before he got injured either.  Love or Fromm may be worth the 44th pick, but IMO they're certainly not worthy of the 13th.

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