What we got wrong, what now, and do you like it

[EastStreet]

What we got wrong

The overwhelming majority of fans and experts got this wrong for the Colts, and in wrong in other places.

1. *We didn't like Abrams as much we thought.
2. *We didn't like some of the high graded Edge and DTs as much as we thought
3. *The experts pretty much whiffed on both what would be available for the Colts, and also what we'd do.

 

Some surprising things (at least to me)

*Pats take a WR in the 1st. Holy Cow... For all those that constantly say the Pats don't need top WRs - lol

*Ferrell going as early as he did at 4

*Dexter Lawrence going as high as he did at 17

*Simmons going in the top 20. I hate that TN got him.

*Sweat dropping to 26 after the news that he was misdiagnosed 

*Tytus Howard going in the 1st 

*The Colts moving back with Sweat, Tillery, Abrams, and Mcgary still available.

 

What now?

*DT and Edge boards definitely have only Tier 2 and 3 guys left (using NFL.com's ratings). 

*S has 5 high T2 graded guys left (CGJ 5.92, Rapp 5.87, Thornhill 5.85, Adderly 5.82, and Hooker 5.8)

*WR has 3 T1 (6.0+) still available in Metcalf, Campbell, and AJ Brown, and plenty of other solid T2 guys

*OT and OG have 3 T1 guys still there (Taylor, Risner, and Ford)

*CB has 1 T1 guys (Greedy), and 7 high T2 guys left

*LB is pretty meh with only mid T2 guys at the top

*RB and TE are both pretty meh with the exception of Irv Smith still available as a high T2 prospect

[EastStreet]

If we could somehow swing a S (CGJ, Rapp, or Thornhill) and AJ Brown, Isabella, or even Metcalf, I'd be very happy.

 

A little disappointed we didn't grab Sweat or Tillery and have a 5th year option, but if we get 2-3 guys I like tonight, I won't care. 

 

I really wonder what we do at DT now. I wouldn't mind putting in a call to Suh for a one or two year deal.

[Defjamz26]

I’ll admit I was completely wrong about Abrams. Thought he was the pick for certain.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’ll admit I was completely wrong about Abrams. Thought he was the pick for certain.

I was right early and strongly against it, but started to believe the buzz this week lol, and started questioning myself. 

 

I'm very happy they didn't pick him. Love him in the running game, but too many concerns in coverage. He'd be a great pick at 59, I just didn't like him at all for 26 or 34. I also think he's a product of the surrounding talent on his team a bit.

[EastStreet]

Just saw an article in the IndyStar that showed a tweet reporting that Ballard says that there are a few left in their original "cluster of 8" guys (that they would have liked originally at 26).

[Matthew Gilbert]

There's so many guys left that can help this team now and down the road. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they traded down again from #34.

[LockeDown]

Let’s face it. Ballard has said and shown that he doesn’t go by NFL.com rankings or anyone else’s for that matter, so to gauge his actions according to that will never work out.  We have to trust Braden Smith and Darius Leonard selections as proof his boards work...you just need to let it play out.

[Fluke_33]

a second next year is a huge value.  I think it will be an early 2nd.

 

I think other similar trades were for 2 4th rounders.

[EastStreet]

28 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

a second next year is a huge value.  I think it will be an early 2nd.

 

I think other similar trades were for 2 4th rounders.

If they we get a late 2nd, for instance 64 next year, it's a +19% value

If we get a mid 2nd (I used 49), it's a +34% value

If we get an early 2nd (I used 36), it's a +51% value

 

We need to hope that the Skins have a really bad year lol.

Skins are currently 25th in the way too early power rankings.

So by that, we have the 39th pick, and a +47% value. That would be nice!

 

IMO, a roughly 20-25% pick up is a wash on the deal.

I would have rather had Sweat or Tillery a year earlier.

[EastStreet]

45 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

There's so many guys left that can help this team now and down the road. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they traded down again from #34.

please no. 

there are a few "instant starter" rated and high T2 guys that I'd love to have.

[EastStreet]

43 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Let’s face it. Ballard has said and shown that he doesn’t go by NFL.com rankings or anyone else’s for that matter, so to gauge his actions according to that will never work out.  We have to trust Braden Smith and Darius Leonard selections as proof his boards work...you just need to let it play out.

Ballard is a new GM with one really good draft where he called the shots under his belt.

I love him, but I'm not blind faith love just yet. Give me one more great draft and I might be there. Lot's of potential still left. 

[Fluke_33]

11 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

If they we get a late 2nd, for instance 64 next year, it's a +19% value

If we get a mid 2nd (I used 49), it's a +34% value

If we get an early 2nd (I used 36), it's a +51% value

 

We need to hope that the Skins have a really bad year lol.

Skins are currently 25th in the way too early power rankings.

So by that, we have the 39th pick, and a +47% value. That would be nice!

 

IMO, a roughly 20-25% pick up is a wash on the deal.

I would have rather had Sweat or Tillery a year earlier.

you have to include in the calculus the depth of the expected class.  I assume ballard thinks next year is stronger than this year.  At least that's what i've been hearing.

[EastStreet]

8 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

you have to include in the calculus the depth of the expected class.  I assume ballard thinks next year is stronger than this year.  At least that's what i've been hearing.

That all depends on the position you need or want.

The way too early boards IIRC, say the following. 

DE and DT will not be near as good/deep next year. 

S and CB probably a push. OT, QB, and RB should be better.

G/C will take a step back.

LB should be deeper.

 

Overall, I don't think had much or anything to do with the decision. It was 95% based on gaining value, the fact the second round this year is crammed with value,  with a little bit of a gamble on the redskins sucking next year.

[Matthew Gilbert]

30 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

please no. 

there are a few "instant starter" rated and high T2 guys that I'd love to have.

You're basing this off of the wannabe NFL scouts rankings and not the actual NFL scouts boards.

[EastStreet]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

You're basing this off of the wannabe NFL scouts rankings and not the actual NFL scouts boards.

I doubt the scouts are too heavy into 2020 to make that call yet. 

Not heavy enough to make a call like that IMO.

[Fisticuffs111]

I voted for "It's ok" in related to talent/depth but meant to vote for the other one. Oh well.

[gspdx]

Ballard did say there the guys from I think 16 to 70 were all rated about the same by them.  He also said something about see you Thursday or maybe Friday. 

 

So based on all the work Ballard and his team have done all year they didn't see that the guys they could have picked at 26 are significantly better than the guys they could pick in the 30 to 60 range.  I am not saying they are going to be right on every pick.  Nobody ever is.  But I will defer to Ballard and team on what the capabilities are of the players they are targeting.

 

Also he did say there are still a few guys on that group of 8 they were looking at.  So we should be able to get at least one of those guys. 

 

I don't think Ballard is some kind of genius.  But I will let him and his team do their jobs and we will see what happens. 

[stitches]

Great summary there. I would add some interesting bits here(not necessarily surprises, some are just notable things):

 

-Savage went higher than a lot of people thought he would go and was S1 in the draft. 

-Gettleman continues to show that he doesn't know what he's doing. Saying he will keep Jones on the sidelines for the next 3 years is just the cherry on the top. 

-Jawaan Taylor is dropping... rumor is teams worried about a knee injury he has. IMO he was about top 10 player in the draft. If his injury is short-term issues only, IMO it's no-brainer pick for us since he will sit either way... unless he ousts Braden from RT spot. 

-Matt MIller was right about his Jeffery Simmons to Tennessee rumor. He continues to have those nuggets he finds in every draft and slots unlikely player to team pairings perfectly. 

-I loved how the Eagles jumped the Texans for Dillard. 

-LJ Collier in R1 is a bit weird to me but Seattle usually knows what they are doing on the defensive end so... I will defer to them here. 

 

What I want from day 2:

- I still have my WR1 on the board; only WR2(Hollywood) is gone. We have great pick of the litter scenario here. I still have most of my best safeties and CBs on the board. Again pick of the litter scenarios. We are in a great position, IMO. 

- I expect a weird pick today on the DLine... something like Anthony Nelson... or Ben Banogu... or Khalen Saunders ... or Trysten Hill. Just watch... 

- Will we pick OT? There still are some good picks for the future(Little, Risner, Ford?)

- What will make me happy? 34-Taylor, 46-Butler, 59-Chauncey GJ, 89-Anthony Nelson? 

[pgt_rob]

Once Jeffery Simmons was gone I didn't really see anyone fit the bill for #26. This year's talent is very underwhelming.

[chad72]

3 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

If we could somehow swing a S (CGJ, Rapp, or Thornhill) and AJ Brown, Isabella, or even Metcalf, I'd be very happy.

 

A little disappointed we didn't grab Sweat or Tillery and have a 5th year option, but if we get 2-3 guys I like tonight, I won't care. 

 

I really wonder what we do at DT now. I wouldn't mind putting in a call to Suh for a one or two year deal.

 

Same with Ziggy Ansah, with his length, he can be moved around inside to UT as well, IMO for a 1 year deal. DL is always a hard position to be productive at the next level, takes time to build strength and moves. Secondary and skill positions are easier to be productive faster, IMO, if you have the intelligence. 

[Scott Pennock]

I love the trade.

 

Look at what is still left on the board.....tons of talent at Safety, Corner and Wide Receiver....our three "weakest links" so to speak. 

 

There are still disruptive interior dlineman available and a few edge rushers that are skilled but not refined yet that can learn - plus we still have Lewis and Turay and Muhammad learning as well.

 

This draft played right into the positions that Ballard et al apparently wanted all along....

[chad72]

Here is an article where Seattle actually netted a negative value on the draft value chart with allowing the Giants back into Round 1:

 

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/4/25/18517296/2019-nfl-draft-seattle-seahawks-trade-pick-30-new-york-giants-gettleman-37-132-142

 

Just goes to show you the market for late first rounders isn't as great due to fewer blue chip players. Very consistent with what Ballard said, just thought I'd point that out.  

[EastStreet]

10 minutes ago, gspdx said:

Ballard did say there the guys from I think 16 to 70 were all rated about the same by them.  He also said something about see you Thursday or maybe Friday. 

 

So based on all the work Ballard and his team have done all year they didn't see that the guys they could have picked at 26 are significantly better than the guys they could pick in the 30 to 60 range.  I am not saying they are going to be right on every pick.  Nobody ever is.  But I will defer to Ballard and team on what the capabilities are of the players they are targeting.

 

Also he did say there are still a few guys on that group of 8 they were looking at.  So we should be able to get at least one of those guys. 

 

I don't think Ballard is some kind of genius.  But I will let him and his team do their jobs and we will see what happens. 

Personally, while I'm a bit disappointed we didn't grab Sweat or Tillery, I will 1) see what happens tonight before being too disappointed, and 2) see things how play out on the field before passing judgement regardless.

 

If Sweat or Tillery have huge years, I'll definitely scratch my head, but if we get a stud at 46 who performs really well, I can't be too upset.

 

Going back to his 8, I just really wish we could have gotten 2 of them.

[stitches]

 

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, stitches said:

Great summary there. I would add some interesting bits here(not necessarily surprises, some are just notable things): 

 

Great adds stitches.

 

Quote

-Savage went higher than a lot of people thought he would go and was S1 in the draft. 

A few on the board said he'd go 1st. Props to them.

 

Quote

-Gettleman continues to show that he doesn't know what he's doing. Saying he will keep Jones on the sidelines for the next 3 years is just the cherry on the top. 

I'm in the camp of letting Eli keep playing, because his numbers are good, and the team has so many holes. But I agree Gettleman is an *.

 

Quote

-Juwaan Taylor is dropping... rumor is teams worried about a knee injury he has. IMO he was about top 10 player in the draft. If his injury is short-term issues only, IMO it's no-brainer pick for us since he will sit either way... unless he ousts Braden from RT spot.

I've never been all that high on Taylor. I like Risner better to be honest because of his flexibility. If the plan is for AC's replacement, than I'd prefer Taylor to Risner, but don't really want either as AC's replacement. 

 

Quote

-Matt MIller was right about his Jeffery Simmons to Tennessee rumor. He continues to have those nuggets he finds in every draft and slots unlikely player to team pairings perfectly. 

Out of all the "experts", he had the best call so far. Better than the ESPN guys that's for sure.

 

 

 

 

Quote

What I want from day 2:

- I still have my WR1 on the board; only WR2(Hollywood) is gone. We have great pick of the litter scenario here. I still have most of my best safeties and CBs on the board. Again pick of the litter scenarios. We are in a great position, IMO. 

AJB is my number one WR, so I'm happy too. Love the Ss and CBs too.

It could be the best D2 for the Colts ever, and that's saying a lot after last year.

 

Quote

- I expect a weird pick today on the DLine... something like Anthony Nelson... or Ben Banogu... or Khalen Saunders ... or Trysten Hill. Just watch... 

Dre'mont Jones is the only guy I like for D2 to be honest. I'd be fine with BB, KD, or TH in the 3rd though.

 

- 

Quote

What will make me happy? 34-Taylor, 46-Butler, 59-Chauncey GJ, 89-Anthony Nelson

 

AJB, Rapp or CGJ or Thornhill as 2 out of the 3 second round picks would make me very happy.

 

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, Scott Pennock said:

I love the trade.

 

Look at what is still left on the board.....tons of talent at Safety, Corner and Wide Receiver....our three "weakest links" so to speak. 

 

There are still disruptive interior dlineman available and a few edge rushers that are skilled but not refined yet that can learn - plus we still have Lewis and Turay and Muhammad learning as well.

 

This draft played right into the positions that Ballard et al apparently wanted all along....

 

our weakest link on D is DT though. we passed on likely T1 guys. 

steep drop off.

[John Hammonds]

10 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

our weakest link on D is DT though. we passed on likely T1 guys. 

steep drop off.

I would disagree slightly on this one.  With Wilkins taken at 13, Lawrence taken at 17, and Simmons gone at 19, we didn't necessarily pass on them, but rather they got scooped up before our chance.  Only Tillery got taken after 26.  Seems to me we would have had to trade up to get into the DT derby.  I wish we could have gotten in on them, too.  But that's how the cookie crumbles.

[gspdx]

31 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Personally, while I'm a bit disappointed we didn't grab Sweat or Tillery, I will 1) see what happens tonight before being too disappointed, and 2) see things how play out on the field before passing judgement regardless.

 

If Sweat or Tillery have huge years, I'll definitely scratch my head, but if we get a stud at 46 who performs really well, I can't be too upset.

 

Going back to his 8, I just really wish we could have gotten 2 of them.

 

I hear you.  I was thinking that too.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, John Hammonds said:

I would disagree slightly on this one.  With Wilkins taken at 13, Lawrence taken at 17, and Simmons gone at 19, we didn't necessarily pass on them, but rather they got scooped up before our chance.  Only Tillery got taken after 26.  Seems to me we would have had to trade up to get into the DT derby.  I wish we could have gotten in on them, too.  But that's how the cookie crumbles.

By most ratings from the "experts", JT was absolutely a 1st round guy. The guys that are left are mid tier 2 guys. I know it's their boards, and not Ballards. but the consensus drop off is overwhelming. Next best DT is a mid T2. I'd add that I would have taken Sweat over JT if the reporting is true that he was misdiagnosed. 

 

Crumbled cookies can turn out to be good though lol. Love them in ice cream.

[WoolMagnet]

I hope you arent this premature with the ladies.

People criticized Michelangelo's design before he finished the chapel too.  Relax. 

[John Hammonds]

2 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

By most ratings from the "experts", JT was absolutely a 1st round guy. The guys that are left are mid tier 2 guys. I know it's their boards, and not Ballards. but the consensus drop off is overwhelming. Next best DT is a mid T2. I'd add that I would have taken Sweat over JT if the reporting is true that he was misdiagnosed. 

 

Crumbled cookies can turn out to be good though lol. Love them in ice cream.

I agree with you.  Next best DT is Zach Allen and Dre'Mont Jones, and then it falls off more steeply to guys like Gerald Willis.  Ewwww.

[krunk]

I just knew Ballard was going to take Sweat but it didn't work out that way.  The commentators during the draft kept insinuating that there were other issues with Sweat outside the Medicals but they would not mention what that was.  I assume some character concerns maybe.

[krunk]

I'd like to see us pick up Banogu.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, krunk said:

I just knew Ballard was going to take Sweat but it didn't work out that way.  The commentators during the draft kept insinuating that there were other issues with Sweat outside the Medicals but they would not mention what that was.  I assume some character concerns maybe.

Yup. 

I have a feeling he's going to kill it if he can stay healthy and keep his nose clean.

[krunk]

1 minute ago, Irish YJ said:

Yup. 

I have a feeling he's going to kill it if he can stay healthy and keep his nose clean.

Yeah it's taking me a little bit to get past that one to be honest.

[Fisticuffs111]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

- I expect a weird pick today on the DLine... something like Anthony Nelson... or Ben Banogu... or Khalen Saunders ... or Trysten Hill. Just watch...

Yup, Banogu at 59 is my guess. I'm not big on him, or any of the DL still left, but I'd be surprised if Ballard doesn't go DL at some point.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, krunk said:

Yeah it's taking me a little bit to get past that one to be honest.

me too, but i'm going with the flow right now lol

[stitches]

 

 

Trade down again is legit option ^^^

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

What about Jaylon Ferguson?

[HarryTheCat]

No sweat, guys (OK, pun somewhat intended). This is all part of Ballard's double-secret plan to trade back enough to grab every last stinkin' pick in the 7th round!