Don't be surprised if Ballard trades down in the first round

[Coltsfan0112]

Everyone here knows Ballard loves having draft picks and many experts say that the strongest part of this year's draft are rounds 2-4. Experts say you can find great value in this year's middle rounds. Also, teams every year try to trade up into the late first round to get another player and I definetly see Colts being one of the teams moving back. I would be okay knowing we trade back since they have the 2nd pick in the 2nd round and by trading back they can pick up a teams 2nd round pick with an additional 3rd and 5th round pick. 

[Yoshinator]

4 minutes ago, Coltsfan0112 said:

Everyone here knows Ballard loves having draft picks and many experts say that the strongest part of this year's draft are rounds 2-4. Experts say you can find great value in this year's middle rounds. Also, teams every year try to trade up into the late first round to get another player and I definetly see Colts being one of the teams moving back. I would be okay knowing we trade back since they have the 2nd pick in the 2nd round and by trading back they can pick up a teams 2nd round pick with an additional 3rd and 5th round pick. 

I would be slightly surprised as it's rumored Ballard is looking for a trade-up partner. Don't disagree rounds 2-4 are strong though. If Burns or Wilkins is there at 21, I'd trade up. Otherwise, I would pick at 26 or trade down.

[Boiler_Colt]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I would be slightly surprised as it's rumored Ballard is looking for a trade-up partner. Don't disagree rounds 2-4 are strong though. If Burns or Wilkins is there at 21, I'd trade up. Otherwise, I would pick at 26 or trade down.

Has it been rumored Ballard is interested in trading up? I haven't seen that. They've been meeting with a couple guys that are probably out of their range but I don't think that means anything one way or another.

[Coltsfan0112]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I would be slightly surprised as it's rumored Ballard is looking for a trade-up partner. Don't disagree rounds 2-4 are strong though. If Burns or Wilkins is there at 21, I'd trade up. Otherwise, I would pick at 26 or trade down.

Matt Miller started that rumor and I think he only stated it because Ballard has the ammo to do it. Also, Miller had no source to that statement and that's not Ballards MO. Ballard even stated that he loves those picks so I'd be shocked if he trade up. Not impossible but Ballard would seriously have to love that guy. I think there are a good amount of players in the 2nd and 3rd round that could also fill needs.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Boiler_Colt said:

Has it been rumored Ballard is interested in trading up? I haven't seen that. They've been meeting with a couple guys that are probably out of their range but I don't think that means anything one way or another.

Yes. The Seahawks are the only team I know for sure, but it could be any number of teams. 

[Boiler_Colt]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Yes. The Seahawks are the only team I know for sure, but it could be any number of teams. 

Cool. Wasn't saying it wasn't true, just haven't seen it. Got a link? Thanks

[BigQungus]

I don't consider Matt Miller to be a credentialed source

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Coltsfan0112 said:

Matt Miller started that rumor and I think he only stated it because Ballard has the ammo to do it. Also, Miller had no source to that statement and that's not Ballards MO. Ballard even stated that he loves those picks so I'd be shocked if he trade up. Not impossible but Ballard would seriously have to love that guy. I think there are a good amount of players in the 2nd and 3rd round that couls also fill needs.

Appreciate that. Didn't realize Matt Miller started it (though I generally trust him draft-wise).

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Boiler_Colt said:

Cool. Wasn't saying it wasn't true, just haven't seen it. Got a link? Thanks

Just got told it was a Matt Miller rumor, might be able to find it. Give me a minute.

[Coltsfan0112]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826586-which-nfl-teams-are-biggest-threat-to-move-up-in-2019-draft#slide2

 

Here it is. He has no sources to a possible move up. Just speculation

[Yoshinator]

@Boiler_Colt can't find that bit from matt miller, but i found this interesting tidbit.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823952-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-draft-news-and-rumors-for-every-nfl-team

 

Has who the Colts want to take in the draft, via the colts scouting department (teams are in real draft order).

4 minutes ago, Coltsfan0112 said:

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826586-which-nfl-teams-are-biggest-threat-to-move-up-in-2019-draft#slide2

 

Here it is. He has no sources to a possible move up. Just speculation

Thanks for finding it! 

[Coltsfan0112]

7 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

@Boiler_Colt can't find that bit from matt miller, but i found this interesting tidbit.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2823952-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-draft-news-and-rumors-for-every-nfl-team

 

Has who the Colts want to take in the draft, via the colts scouting department (teams are in real draft order).

Thanks for finding it! 

I do agree with Miller's assesment on the Colts. If a good interior or end is available I definetly see Ballard staying put and drafting that player. My thoughts on it is I think Wilkins, Lawerence or Burns will be gone by than. I could be wrong but I do really like Wilkins but have a feeling he will be gone by our pick. I just love knowing how how he has hit with middle round guys so I would be okay with a trade down. Thursday will be boring for Colts fans but day 2 would be awesome.

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Coltsfan0112 said:

I do agree with Miller's assesment on the Colts. If a good interior or end is available I definetly see Ballard staying put and drafting that player. My thought on is I think Wilkins, Lawerence or Burns will be gone by than. I could be wrong but I do really like Wilkins but have a feeling he will be gone by our pick. I just love knowing how how he has hit with middle round guys I would be okay with a trade down. Thursday will be boring for Colts fans but day 2 would be awesome.

Agreed. I have high confidence in Ballard at picks 26 and 34 because of Leonard and Braden. The more day two picks the better with Ballard as GM! 

[Matthew Gilbert]

I've said it before, most years I'm all about trading down to accumulate more draft capitol. But this year just seems like a trade up year. Now of course the right guy has to be there for any such move to happen, and we won't know how it shakes out until draft night. I won't be shocked either way if the Ballard trades up or down really. I'm always of the mindset of the more picks the merrier, but if a player the Colts see as a real blue chipper falls to a certain spot, I can certainly see Ballard making a move.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think I saw the dolphins were looking to trade down out of that 13th pick.

[Boiler_Colt]

I'm all for trading either up or down this year as I trust Ballard but I would in absolutely no way get rid of #34 in order to trade up. That pick is untouchable IMO unless they're trading back from it.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I think I saw the dolphins were looking to trade down out of that 13th pick.

 

In 2017, the Texans moved from 25 to 12, and it cost them a future first rounder. They drafted Deshaun Watson.

 

In 2010, the Eagles moved from 24 to 13, and they included 70 and 87 from that year's draft. They drafted Brandon Graham. (The new CBA was not yet in place, and the players were still locked out.)

 

I'm thinking the 2010 trade value doesn't hold up anymore. Especially in a draft as top heavy as this one seems to be. To come up from the mid 20s to the early teens for the 4th best DL in the draft (Graham was the 4th DL taken in 2010) is probably going to cost more than a couple third rounders.

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

There's only so many roster spots, and there's 9 picks. I think it would suit them to get rid of a pick or 2 in order to get a better player that is more of a sure thing. Or just throw a bunch of darts and hope they stick, what do I know?

[Coltsfan0112]

I think the more picks the better and really doesn't matter about roster spots because you want depth and competition. I think the Colts could use a SS, WR, DT, DE, DB, LB, and anothe swing guard/tackle.

[HarryTheCat]

Looking at the pick value chart, #26 is worth 700 points, #34 is worth 560, and #59 is worth 310. Packaging #26 and #34 totals 1260, and that would be worth something around Pick #11. Packaging #26 and #59 would be worth something around Pick #16. All three first- and second-round picks together equal 1570, or enough to trade up into the #6, #7, or #8 spots. 

 

If Ballard sees what he believes is a "Top Five-ish", game-wrecking Edge or interior DL guy slipping down into that range, putting that 1st and one of the 2nds together to move up might just make sense. On the other side of the equation, if there isn't anyone that just screams "take me" at #26, he could swap that pick for an extra 2nd and 3rd and still find some talent there as well. 

[Valpo2004]

9 minutes ago, HarryTheCat said:

Looking at the pick value chart, #26 is worth 700 points, #34 is worth 560, and #59 is worth 310. Packaging #26 and #34 totals 1260, and that would be worth something around Pick #11. Packaging #26 and #59 would be worth something around Pick #16. All three first- and second-round picks together equal 1570, or enough to trade up into the #6, #7, or #8 spots. 

 

If Ballard sees what he believes is a "Top Five-ish", game-wrecking Edge or interior DL guy slipping down into that range, putting that 1st and one of the 2nds together to move up might just make sense. On the other side of the equation, if there isn't anyone that just screams "take me" at #26, he could swap that pick for an extra 2nd and 3rd and still find some talent there as well. 

 

I would only see an edge being worth making that move up.

 

I'm more apt to support a trade down in this situation.  I don't see the value of players you can get in the middle of the 2nd round being that much lower than the value of the players that can get in the late 1st.  

 

The problem of course might be finding a trade partner.  

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, Coltsfan0112 said:

Everyone here knows Ballard loves having draft picks and many experts say that the strongest part of this year's draft are rounds 2-4. Experts say you can find great value in this year's middle rounds. Also, teams every year try to trade up into the late first round to get another player and I definetly see Colts being one of the teams moving back. I would be okay knowing we trade back since they have the 2nd pick in the 2nd round and by trading back they can pick up a teams 2nd round pick with an additional 3rd and 5th round pick. 

hey look... this again  

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

13 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I would only see an edge being worth making that move up.

 

I'm more apt to support a trade down in this situation.  I don't see the value of players you can get in the middle of the 2nd round being that much lower than the value of the players that can get in the late 1st.  

 

The problem of course might be finding a trade partner.  

 

While an edge certainly would be a great move/value, a guy like Ed Oliver, or if Quinnen Williams were to somehow miraculously fall, would also be great values. A game wrecker at DT makes everything easier on the front 7. 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

4 minutes ago, csmopar said:

hey look... this again  

It's not his fault you live on this website, and have no external existence. Do something else with your life, outside of this website, and some of these posts would actually appear fresh to you. 

[csmopar]

20 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

It's not his fault you live on this website, and have no external existence. Do something else with your life, outside of this website, and some of these posts would actually appear fresh to you. 

haha, i'm not on this forum as near much as you think I am. and I've done plenty in my life, well outside of this website.  

[Defjamz26]

Based on reports it seems like Abram, Burns, and Lawrence are targets at 26. If they’re all gone, I think there’s a good chance Ballard trades down.

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

1 minute ago, Defjamz26 said:

Based on reports it seems like Abram, Burns, and Lawrence are targets at 26. If they’re all gone, I think there’s a good chance Ballard trades down.

 

I don't get the Burns hype lately, not long ago this guy was a fringe 1st rounder, and now he's borderline top 10, based on no new info/stats...just hype. I'd rather wait and get a guy of equal talent, that may be flying under the radar, avoiding media/draftnik hype. I mean, what measurables/stats/info separate him from say the Polite, Ferguson, Ximenes, or even Clelin Ferrell (who somehow seems to have fallen behind Burns, but I believe to be 2x the player)?

[horseshoecrabs]

Wouldn't surprise me with the  first 2 pics being that close together, that depending on their board, One with the right scenario, one moving up or down could happen. 

[NewColtsFan]

34 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I don't get the Burns hype lately, not long ago this guy was a fringe 1st rounder, and now he's borderline top 10, based on no new info/stats...just hype. I'd rather wait and get a guy of equal talent, that may be flying under the radar, avoiding media/draftnik hype. I mean, what measurables/stats/info separate him from say the Polite, Ferguson, Ximenes, or even Clelin Ferrell (who somehow seems to have fallen behind Burns, but I believe to be 2x the player)?

Apparently, you don’t follow the draft very much....

 

No new info or stats?

 

Burns played this season at 230 pounds.    Then showed up at the Combine at 249 and aced it.   Wowed everyone.   Now weighs 252.    And as he’s traveling around doing private interviews people are saying he’s acing the interviews as well.

 

As for Polite?  Ha!   Showed up at the Combine fat and out of shape.   Gave terrible interviews to teams and media.   Did terribly in opening drills like the 40, then claimed he pulled a muscle to back out of other drills.   And did poorly on his pro day and in private interviews.  The buzz is he’s falling to the 2nd or maybe even the third round. 

 

Any other questions?

[richard pallo]

40 minutes ago, SouthernIndianaNDFan said:

 

I don't get the Burns hype lately, not long ago this guy was a fringe 1st rounder, and now he's borderline top 10, based on no new info/stats...just hype. I'd rather wait and get a guy of equal talent, that may be flying under the radar, avoiding media/draftnik hype. I mean, what measurables/stats/info separate him from say the Polite, Ferguson, Ximenes, or even Clelin Ferrell (who somehow seems to have fallen behind Burns, but I believe to be 2x the player)?

Burns, himself, stated in an interview that the Colts are the team that has shown the most interest in him so we have to assume he would be a legitimate target.  There was a concern about his playing weight but he said he has been working on getting it up. 

[chad72]

2 hours ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I've said it before, most years I'm all about trading down to accumulate more draft capitol. But this year just seems like a trade up year. Now of course the right guy has to be there for any such move to happen, and we won't know how it shakes out until draft night. I won't be shocked either way if the Ballard trades up or down really. I'm always of the mindset of the more picks the merrier, but if a player the Colts see as a real blue chipper falls to a certain spot, I can certainly see Ballard making a move.

 

I disagree. Since there are fewer blue chip players at the top of the draft, IMO, the strength of this draft is on Day 2. More picks on Day 2 is what wins this draft. If we traded down to gain 2 picks for a total of 5 good picks in rounds 2 and 3 by moving out of the No.26 spot, I'd be ecstatic.

[chad72]

56 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Based on reports it seems like Abram, Burns, and Lawrence are targets at 26. If they’re all gone, I think there’s a good chance Ballard trades down.

 

I agree

[Fisticuffs111]

I think Ballard's most telling quote lately, besides what he apparently told Holder about the talent after the 14-15 range, is that he'd rather have more chances to hit with draft picks than not. Think he specifically said something like he'd rather have multiple picks to get it right rather than just one.

I don't think a trade up is very likely, at least not in the 1st.

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Apparently, you don’t follow the draft very much....

 

No new info or stats?

 

Burns played this season at 230 pounds.    Then showed up at the Combine at 249 and aced it.   Wowed everyone.   Now weighs 252.    And as he’s traveling around doing private interviews people are saying he’s acing the interviews as well.

 

As for Polite?  Ha!   Showed up at the Combine fat and out of shape.   Gave terrible interviews to teams and media.   Did terribly in opening drills like the 40, then claimed he pulled a muscle to back out of other drills.   And did poorly on his pro day and in private interviews.  The buzz is he’s falling to the 2nd or maybe even the third round. 

 

Any other questions?

 

 No, I don't follow this as religiously as some of you obviously do, which is a major reason I love this site, keeps me informed. I kind of thought that was expected of guys, to continue to improve physically, especially at that age, both in terms of cardiovascular fitness and weight training. The question is can he maintain the explosiveness and mobility that got him into the 1st round to begin with? As a guy that weight trains consistently, I know it's hard to both grow and maintain high levels of mobility and cardio. It's game tape that I'd be interested in, and they elude to that in the 2nd part of the Colts Productions video, "if they don't have it on tape, we don't want em". I feel like Ferrell is a much better player on tape, but again I'm no expert and don't follow this stuff as intensely as some. 

[SouthernIndianaNDFan]

11 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Burns, himself, stated in an interview that the Colts are the team that has shown the most interest in him so we have to assume he would be a legitimate target.  There was a concern about his playing weight but he said he has been working on getting it up. 

 

I'd imagine it's with the intention that he falls to them at 26, as I can't see Ballard trading a pick to move up. 

[csmopar]

11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I disagree. Since there are fewer blue chip players at the top of the draft, IMO, the strength of this draft is on Day 2. More picks on Day 2 is what wins this draft. If we traded down to gain 2 picks for a total of 5 good picks in rounds 2 and 3 by moving out of the No.26 spot, I'd be ecstatic.

I agree! Plus I would avoid giving up ANY 2020 picks. Next years draft looks to be stronger than this years.  Honestly, I would not be surprised if in 3-5 years, we look back and this draft, 2019, is on par with the 2013 draft as far as being one of the worst draft classes.

[Matthew Gilbert]

12 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I disagree. Since there are fewer blue chip players at the top of the draft, IMO, the strength of this draft is on Day 2. More picks on Day 2 is what wins this draft. If we traded down to gain 2 picks for a total of 5 good picks in rounds 2 and 3 by moving out of the No.26 spot, I'd be ecstatic.

I agree with your logic and like I said, usually I'm all for trading down. That being said, I don't think this draft class is nearly as strong in rounds two and three as it was last year.

[Matthew Gilbert]

5 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I agree! Plus I would avoid giving up ANY 2020 picks. Next years draft looks to be stronger than this years.  Honestly, I would not be surprised if in 3-5 years, we look back and this draft, 2019, is on par with the 2013 draft as far as being one of the worst draft classes.

That's a scary thought. I don't think the can't miss guys this year could possibly be that bad though.

[chad72]

1 minute ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I agree with your logic and like I said, usually I'm all for trading down. That being said, I don't think this draft class is nearly as strong in rounds two and three as it was last year.

 

That is because their talent level is about just a few notches apart that with good coaching, they could all produce similarly. That is why we need to get more darts for Day 2 of this draft where we could reproduce a Darius Leonard and Braden Smith like production for the equivalent positions we draft players for on Day 2 with good coaching.

[Barry Sears]

This is the only guy worth trading up for...he's a hitter!!!

 

Seriously, I agree there is not a player worth trading multiple picks, and even a 1st rounder next year in order to move up this time.  Trade down, collect more picks and draft for competition and depth.