Draft Situation: Edmunds or Smith if....

[ColtsBlitz]

This is all situational of course. Everything you’re going to read depends on whether we trade back, where we trade back to, if Chubb or Barkley are there at 6, and who Ballard has ranked higher on his board. 

 

In this rant, I’m assuming three things:

1) Barkley and Chubb are off the board

2) Ballard wants to go ILB if his first few options are gone

3) Noone offers to trade up

 

I think the only way we trade back is if Chicago, Buffalo, or Miami all offer something worth taking:

 

-Bears give us Howard and trade firsts (maybe an additional later pick)

-Bills give us their firsts and a third to move up to 6

-Miami trades firsts with us and gives us their 2nd this year and 2019 1st rd pick

 

Now, onto what I believe will happen in the top 5:

1) Josh Allen, CLE, which I believe will be a mistake. He’s bad under pressure and the Browns offensive line isn’t very good. 

2) Saquon Barkley, NYG; take advantage of Browns taking QB rather than smarter choice of Barkley

3) Sam Darnold, NYJ

4) Bradley Chubb, CLE; they may miss out on Barkley, but Chubb isn’t a terrible replacement

5) Josh Rosen, DEN

 

This is how the top 5 plays out in my mind, all of those teams needing a QB either due to lack of, or Manning, who will retire soon. 

 

We will most likely get calls for our pick, but only the teams I have already mentioned and the ransom I have (or more) will get the deal done. Ballard will assess the risk of missing out on his guy, who I believe is either Tremaine Edmunds or Roquan Smith. 

 

But who should he take, and what if he doesn’t make the right choice based on best fit?

 

First off, I think if we decide to go linebacker, the best pick hands down is Edmunds. His measurements and tests border into the obscene. He is bigger than Roquan, he is a true Mike backer, unlike Smith, who would be our Will, and has an endless ceiling. 

 

Edmunds faults are with his mental game. Stepping up too early, getting caught in the wash, faked out by half-hearted play action. This is where Smith is better. 

 

Smith is a much better technician to the game than Edmunds is, and he’s elite speed to cut off outside runs and cover on passing downs. His highlights show his ability, but only in the right system. I am worried that I’m our system, with an incomplete defense, may prove to be a misfit for Smith. 

 

Smith gets washed out by offensive lineman, completely ineffective on inside runs if he’s blocked. Edmunds will not have that issue at 6’5 253lbs vs. Smith at 6’0 233lbs. 

 

I think Edmunds is an overall better fit to our system. He’s big, fast, he can cover. He also has a lot to learn. It will be a good test for Eberflus, and as a well-liked ex-LB coach, Edmunds couldn’t be in better hands. We need to see that these new coaches can develop talent. Just because they are new doesn’t mean we should be lulled to sleep. We need to see them work, but so far all I’ve heard is good vibes. Hopefully it transitions all the way to the season. 

 

Who do you think we take? Why? 

 

This is up for debate, so I leave it open as such. Critiques and additional information/corrections welcome. 

[twfish]

Edmund's. Sure he may be a "project" compared to Smith but it's kind of like picking between a 5.0 gt mustang thats ready to drive off the lot or a ZR1 Corvette but you have to bolt the rims and tires on. Both are the same price but one is much better if you take the time and do a little work. He will immediately help our defense and will be a staple with our defense.

[Barry Sears]

I don't think we could go wrong with either of these guys.  Seems more of a choice between better overall player now versus a better player a year or two from now.  I believe either one will help us in a position where we need lots of help.  Smith is a great player and I would love to have him.  Edmunds would be one of those guys who wows you.

 

It's tough choice and I'm glad Ballard is the one who will make the decision.  I'm sue he will be, and is now getting, lots of input from Eberflus.

[That Guy]

That's a seriously tough question.  Do you want a MLB like Brian Urlacher or a WLB like Derrick Brooks?

 

In the end, I'd go with Edmunds.

[1959Colts]

As for Saquan Barkley being off the board? I am not sold that he is that much better than some of the other RB's in this draft. 

Chubb would fill an obvious need (pass rusher)... but don't discount how desperate we are at the LB position. (especially MLB)

 

I have watched highlight tape of both players (Smith and Edmunds)

Although Edmunds has great measurable's and workout numbers...

In my opinion, Smith is a much safer choice.

Smith is unbelievably instinctive and make tackles all over the field.

Of the two, to me there is no doubt about who I would select... Roquan Smith.

 

Personally, from the games and highlight tapes I have watched, I would prefer Alabama LB Rashaan Evans over Edmunds for the Colts. I now expect Evans to go in the top 15.

 

Here is an interesting piece on Evans from a Cowboys blog:

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/Bolt/NFL-Draft-analyst-mocks-Alabama-LB-Rashaan-Evans-to-Cowboys-in-1st-round-116775269

 

Let's assume the No. 1 consensus inside LB, Roquan Smith (UGA), is long gone by the time the Cowboys go on the clock with the 19th-overall pick. Selecting Evans would mean the team likely passed on a much better option in Tremaine Edmunds (Virginia Tech) and Leighton Vander Esch (Boise State) to make it happen. And that's not the worst of it, considering it would also mean they turned their back to more impactful players at other positions of need to land the third-best LB in the Draft. This is neither provocative, nor does it get the people going.

No one is denying Evans' abilities, as he can definitely make things happen on the football field.

Evans has the potential to be great in the NFL, but not necessarily for the Cowboys. As NFL.com so astutely points out, he's truly a MIKE (middle LB) in a 3-4 system. The problem is, the Cowboys operate in the 4-3, which would see him slide to the WILL (weak side LB) role in Dallas' current scheme.

 

[Defjamz26]

I’d say Edmunds. Edmunds is Bradley Chubb. He’s someone you can build a defense around. All the talk about Edmunds being a project or being overrated because of his measureables is overblown. I’ll post this again

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770422-nfl-draft-400-top-lbs-for-2018-nfl-draft

 

Edmunds is ranked over Smith

[MPStack]

Smith all day!

[shasta519]

Edmunds. I can get an athletic WILL later in the draft. I can't get an ILB with that type of upside later.

[Moosejawcolt]

Edmunds is an athletic freak. The one thing that people r forgetting is that he is only 19 and weighs 254. He can still grow and add weight. I have sons  and they gained weight at this  age.   Could he still play  middle linebacker weighing over 260 pounds?  He might actually out grow the position.  Just a thought

[SP_21]

31 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Edmunds is an athletic freak. The one thing that people r forgetting is that he is only 19 and weighs 254. He can still grow and add weight. I have sons  and they gained weight at this  age.   Could he still play  middle linebacker weighing over 260 pounds?  He might actually out grow the position.  Just a thought

I've been wondering that too. It wouldn't be unusual if he grew another inch or two. Could he play LB at 6'6+? 

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I’d say Edmunds. Edmunds is Bradley Chubb. He’s someone you can build a defense around. All the talk about Edmunds being a project or being overrated because of his measureables is overblown. I’ll post this again

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770422-nfl-draft-400-top-lbs-for-2018-nfl-draft

 

Edmunds is ranked over Smith

 

That's one ranking..   Remember...   everybody sees the same thing differently...     I've seen a bunch of mocks this week.   All of them have Smith in the Top-10.  Some of them have Edmunds in the Top-10 and the rest have him outside the top-10.

 

There's no one universal master list that all 32 teams are using.    32 teams, 32 different viewpoints on everything.

 

[NewColtsFan]

39 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Edmunds is an athletic freak. The one thing that people r forgetting is that he is only 19 and weighs 254. He can still grow and add weight. I have sons  and they gained weight at this  age.   Could he still play  middle linebacker weighing over 260 pounds?  He might actually out grow the position.  Just a thought

 

If he outgrows the position then he becomes a 4-3 defensive end and rushes the passer.

 

[twfish]

15 minutes ago, SP_21 said:

I've been wondering that too. It wouldn't be unusual if he grew another inch or two. Could he play LB at 6'6+? 

If he stays running the same speed and stay agile at that height why not?

[Scott Pennock]

5 hours ago, That Guy said:

That's a seriously tough question.  Do you want a MLB like Brian Urlacher or a WLB like Derrick Brooks?

 

In the end, I'd go with Edmunds.

I'll take the dominant MLB any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Pun intended...

 

Besides with the likes Darius Leonard, Oren Burks, Skai Moore and Fred Warner available in the 3rd and beyond you could get the best of both worlds.

 

 

[Luck 4 president]

If CB is confident Eberflus can tap into Edmunds potential and bring out the best then take Edmunds. I’d also like to get Eberflus’ input since he was a longtime LB coach and will be calling the shots on D. If he likes what he sees in Smith more then take Smith. He understands the position more than anyone on our team and anyone on this forum.

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

That's one ranking..   Remember...   everybody sees the same thing differently...     I've seen a bunch of mocks this week.   All of them have Smith in the Top-10.  Some of them have Edmunds in the Top-10 and the rest have him outside the top-10.

 

There's no one universal master list that all 32 teams are using.    32 teams, 32 different viewpoints on everything.

 

That’s the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen a ranking  have Edmunds over Smith. Everyone sees things differently for sure, but I only meant to bring attention to the fact that most scouts don’t seem to see the game breaking flaws in Edmunds game that the forum members do. People here are making it seem like he’s a boom or bust guy. I don’t see many rankings that confirm that. I see people admit that he doesn’t completely have the mental part down, but that he’ll develop into an all-pro.

[NewColtsFan]

14 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

That’s the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen a ranking  have Edmunds over Smith. Everyone sees things differently for sure, but I only meant to bring attention to the fact that most scouts don’t seem to see the game breaking flaws in Edmunds game that the forum members do. People here are making it seem like he’s a boom or bust guy. I don’t see many rankings that confirm that. I see people admit that he doesn’t completely have the mental part down, but that he’ll develop into an all-pro.

 

Yeah...   fair point....    around this time every year posters often get a little carried away trying to make their point.

 

They like their guy over your guy.   And suddenly the make observations that seem like they've broken down video frame by frame.   Arguments get a little carried away.   I've seen that the last week or two with Edmunds...   and also with Smith.

 

I'd prefer someone say...   "hey I like my guy just a little more than your guy" and let it go at that.    But maybe that's just me?

 

I think there's more parity for more players than I can recall in any draft.   Lots of similar level players.   Not much separation.   I go back to a comment I read from Gil Brandt this week...  that he wouldn't be surprised if the guy he has ranked 49th goes 19th and the guy he has ranked 19th goes 49th.

 

This could lead to a lot of head scratching moments in this draft.   A lot of moments where we're saying...   "Wait!  What?!  Who just went where?!?"

 

Welcome to the 2018 draft!      

[CopenhagenColt]

For me, in your scenario - I don't pick any of them, but get Nelson.

If Ballard insists on not taking Nelson, I would want him to call the Bills and take their two first rounders.

I would be quite happy to grab Rashaan Evans as our new ILB and McGlinchey for RT in the first round.

[TomDiggs]

8 hours ago, That Guy said:

That's a seriously tough question.  Do you want a MLB like Brian Urlacher or a WLB like Derrick Brooks?

 

In the end, I'd go with Edmunds.

 

Great question.

 

I do wonder if the Colts would see Smith as a WILL and Edmunds as a MIKE?

 

That being said, the more important thing isn't whether we as Colts fans would want an Urlacher vs a Brooks. It is probably more important which position will be more critical to the success of Eberflus' defense.

 

Remember that just recently (heading into the 2015 season) Eberflus (or Marinelli or whoever you wanna pin the rose on) took his very best LB in Sean Lee and purposefully moved him out of the MIKE spot into the WILL spot to feature him more and better use his skill set. Part of that was to help with Lee's injury history, but the other part was to allow him to really just attack the ball and not get caught up in any of the muck. Lee had his two best years following that and basically 3 of his 4 best years after the move.

 

If Eberflus' D is going to feature the WILL in the way that some of our old Colts Ds did and the old TB Ds did, then I would probably lean towards Smith over Edmunds.

 

If our D was going to feature our MLB more, then Edmunds is probably the slightly wiser move.

 

I don't think we can go wrong w either player, but I would probably prefer Smith simply based on the historical success of the WLB in Eberflus' recent defensive scheme that he coached.

[SolidGold]

Edmunds 

[Four2itus]

Interesting premise...but it omits Nelson as part of the possibility. 

[ColtsBlitz]

27 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Interesting premise...but it omits Nelson as part of the possibility. 

That’s because I’m assuming Ballard wants to draft a guard later and get a defensive playmaker/leader. Either a WILL in Smith or MIKE in Edmunds.