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T.Y.Hilton - Colts have three No.1 receivers


Shane Bond

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I don't think Hilton is a #1.  His game isn't complete enough to be a #1 yet.  I think his ceiling is a very good #2, complementing a more complete receiver like Wayne, Nicks, or Moncrief when he develops.  Regardless, our passing game has tons of potential.  Everything on offense depends on the OL; if they block well and open running lanes, the offense is unstoppable. 

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Nope, he won't blossom until the franchise decides to put a decent O-line in front of him.  I expect very similar numbers to the last two years.  Until the team decides to stop putting garbage in to block for him he can't ever reach his full potential.  That's not to say anything against Andrew Luck, I seriously doubt any quarterback could do a great job behind that O-line. Luck's numbers the last two years weren't bad at all he just isn't becoming a top 5 quarterback until the O-line issue is resolved and I think most people on this forum agree that Luck is capable of being a top 5 quarterback as far as numbers go.

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I don't think Hilton is a #1.  His game isn't complete enough to be a #1 yet.  I think his ceiling is a very good #2, complementing a more complete receiver like Wayne, Nicks, or Moncrief when he develops.  Regardless, our passing game has tons of potential.  Everything on offense depends on the OL; if they block well and open running lanes, the offense is unstoppable. 

 

It depends on how you define a #1 receiver.  But if you define it as I do as a receiver who can do just about everything fairly well then TY doesn't fit and likely never will because he's limited by his size.  I also don't think he has the body control expected of a true #1.

 

Wayne is likely past the point where he can say he's a #1 by that definition.  He's done well and re-invented himself as a possession type of guy.  But he's not likely to beat a lot of guys deep.  

 

Nicks has the physical tools to be a #1 but he's dropped off in the last 2 years.  Hopefully he can revive his career here.  

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It depends on how you define a #1 receiver.  But if you define it as I do as a receiver who can do just about everything fairly well then TY doesn't fit and likely never will because he's limited by his size.  I also don't think he has the body control expected of a true #1.

 

Wayne is likely past the point where he can say he's a #1 by that definition.  He's done well and re-invented himself as a possession type of guy.  But he's not likely to beat a lot of guys deep.  

 

Nicks has the physical tools to be a #1 but he's dropped off in the last 2 years.  Hopefully he can revive his career here.  

A #1 receiver is tricky to define.  There are a lot of things that go into it, but I think it's more holistic.  He should be able to take over a game, he should be able to run all the routes, he should have very good physical tools or make up for a lack of a physical tool with something exceptional (eg. Wayne's exceptional hands and route running make up for his lack of top end speed).  If Wayne can come back with no ill effects from his knee, I think he will still be a #1.  Wayne was never known for his explosion and speed, so it won't matter as much for that aspect of his game.

 

Like you, I don't think Hilton will ever be a #1 because of his size.  If he puts on 15 lbs and becomes very physical, then perhaps he could be a #1, but in general, guys his size don't become #1 receivers (with a noted exception of Steve Smith).  He was really able to step up his game last year when Wayne went down, but I have doubts as to whether he would be able to maintain that over 16 games.

 

I certainly think Nicks has #1 potential, as he went for 1100+ yards and 7 TDs in 2009, and 1000+ and 11 TDs in 2010.  His key is staying healthy and focused

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A #1 receiver is tricky to define. There are a lot of things that go into it, but I think it's more holistic. He should be able to take over a game, he should be able to run all the routes, he should have very good physical tools or make up for a lack of a physical tool with something exceptional (eg. Wayne's exceptional hands and route running make up for his lack of top end speed). If Wayne can come back with no ill effects from his knee, I think he will still be a #1. Wayne was never known for his explosion and speed, so it won't matter as much for that aspect of his game.

Like you, I don't think Hilton will ever be a #1 because of his size. If he puts on 15 lbs and becomes very physical, then perhaps he could be a #1, but in general, guys his size don't become #1 receivers (with a noted exception of Steve Smith). He was really able to step up his game last year when Wayne went down, but I have doubts as to whether he would be able to maintain that over 16 games.

I certainly think Nicks has #1 potential, as he went for 1100+ yards and 7 TDs in 2009, and 1000+ and 11 TDs in 2010. His key is staying healthy and focused

You may be correct. But TY is about the same size as Marvin weight wise ( he is shorter) and he and Desean Jackson are the exact same size
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if Hilton isn't a number one then you weren't watching him after Wayne went down

 

I'm glad the Colts are talking him up and Hilton may be a #1 after this season,  but for me,  he's not a #1,  at least not yet.

 

Hilton had 7 games last year (nearly a half a season) where he averaged less than 10.5 yards per catch.   And 6 of those 7 games, the average per catch was 9 or less.   And in one game, his average per catch was 3.5.

 

I'm linking the breakdown to his season.

 

He's got plenty of game where he looks great.   But almost as many where he was a complete non-factor.   Both before and after Reggie went down.

 

Those are the facts, and here they are for anyone to look at.....

 

 

http://www.colts.com/team/roster/T.Y.-Hilton/1bfc81a4-87be-4e0e-bc21-25099996be55

 

Right now, for me at least,  TY is too inexperienced and doesn't know all the tricks of the trade yet and he's too small.   There's nothing he can do about the size,  but he can gain more experience and that will help.

 

Hopefully, he goes to the next level this year....

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A #1 receiver is tricky to define.  There are a lot of things that go into it, but I think it's more holistic.  He should be able to take over a game, he should be able to run all the routes, he should have very good physical tools or make up for a lack of a physical tool with something exceptional (eg. Wayne's exceptional hands and route running make up for his lack of top end speed).  If Wayne can come back with no ill effects from his knee, I think he will still be a #1.  Wayne was never known for his explosion and speed, so it won't matter as much for that aspect of his game.

 

Like you, I don't think Hilton will ever be a #1 because of his size.  If he puts on 15 lbs and becomes very physical, then perhaps he could be a #1, but in general, guys his size don't become #1 receivers (with a noted exception of Steve Smith).  He was really able to step up his game last year when Wayne went down, but I have doubts as to whether he would be able to maintain that over 16 games.

 

I certainly think Nicks has #1 potential, as he went for 1100+ yards and 7 TDs in 2009, and 1000+ and 11 TDs in 2010.  His key is staying healthy and focused

 

The problem with TY, which has always been the problem with TY is that he's not that consistent.  One game he receives for like 200 yards, the next game he doesn't have 20.

 

But I look at it as a tool box.  Does the guy have good or better speed, hands, route running, body control, jump ball abilities, run after the catch abilities, etc etc.  He has to basically be good or better anywhere on the field.

 

I look at TY and what I find a few of those tools missing.  I don't see the body control expected of #1 receivers... I've never seen TY make a tip toe catch on the sidelines.  And I certainly don't see the jump ball abilities.  

 

And with TY what I see is a guy who's solid (but not good or better) in most places on the field but excellent as a deep ball receiver who takes the top off a defense.  

 

Now you can win without a true #1 especially with a good QB and a good mix of #2 receivers with different skills.  (Mixing a deep ball receiver with a possession guy is good.) 

 

I want to actually demonstrate this a big by comparing Da'Rick Rogers to TY Hilton.  Now I'm not saying Rogers is better then Hilton, he most certainly isn't.  He doesn't have the route running or the mental understanding of the game to be better then Hilton yet.  But as we all agree he has "all the physical tools"

 

2 plays Rogers made last year that TY can't make.  The first against the Bengals he breaks a tackle off a slant and goes for a TD.  TY can't do that. . . He's never be able to physically break that tackle like Rogers did.

 

The 2nd is the jump ball in the playoffs against KC.  TY would never win a jump ball like that.  

 

That's why TY's not a #1 receiver and is physically limited from being one.  

 

Now as I said, Rogers lacks several things and that's why he's not better then TY.  He doesn't have the hands, the mental understanding of the game, or the route running to do that.  In fact he's very much below average on those things he's lacking while TY in everything but jump balls is at least average or better.

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I'm glad the Colts are talking him up and Hilton may be a #1 after this season,  but for me,  he's not a #1,  at least not yet.

 

Hilton had 7 games last year (nearly a half a season) where he averaged less than 10.5 yards per catch.   And 6 of those 7 games, the average per catch was 9 or less.   And in one game, his average per catch was 3.5.

 

I'm linking the breakdown to his season.

 

He's got plenty of game where he looks great.   But almost as many where he was a complete non-factor.   Both before and after Reggie went down.

 

Those are the facts, and here they are for anyone to look at.....

 

 

http://www.colts.com/team/roster/T.Y.-Hilton/1bfc81a4-87be-4e0e-bc21-25099996be55

 

If you look at it via stats instead of skills then I think that's the big argument against TY.  He gets 200 yards one game and he can't get 20 the next.  

 

But I would also say that his stats are a reflection of the type of receiver he is.  His forte is the deep ball and taking the top off a defense.  If a defense decides that no matter what they arn't going to let anyone beat them deep then TY is likely not to be much of a factor, because anywhere else on the field he's not as good.  In short range he's just average and maybe just above average at mid range.  But if you take away his forte (the deep ball) he's likely not going to get a lot of yards.

 

But if the defense decides that they arn't going to get beat by dink and dunk then that opens up opportunities for TY.  

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You may be correct. But TY is about the same size as Marvin weight wise ( he is shorter) and he and Desean Jackson are the exact same size

I'm not a big fan of DeSean, either.  Guys like him and Mike Wallace come across to me as just deep threats.  I don't think a guy who just runs deep and runs screens can be a #1.  What do you do when the defense takes away the deep route?  Their games are too inconsistent to be #1s, in my opinion

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I'm not a big fan of DeSean, either.  Guys like him and Mike Wallace come across to me as just deep threats.  I don't think a guy who just runs deep and runs screens can be a #1.  What do you do when the defense takes away the deep route?  Their games are too inconsistent to be #1s, in my opinion

TY runs a lot more routes than deep and screens.

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If you look at it via stats instead of skills then I think that's the big argument against TY.  He gets 200 yards one game and he can't get 20 the next.  

 

But I would also say that his stats are a reflection of the type of receiver he is.  His forte is the deep ball and taking the top off a defense.  If a defense decides that no matter what they arn't going to let anyone beat them deep then TY is likely not to be much of a factor, because anywhere else on the field he's not as good.  In short range he's just average and maybe just above average at mid range.  But if you take away his forte (the deep ball) he's likely not going to get a lot of yards.

 

But if the defense decides that they arn't going to get beat by dink and dunk then that opens up opportunities for TY.  

Patriots focused on taking TY out of the game in the playoffs.  BB talked about that was the defensive game plan before the game and after the game he said they did a good job of taking TY out of the game.

 

TY had 104 yards receiving.  If he gets that and a team still feels they shut him down.... that is a #1 WR.

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Patriots focused on taking TY out of the game in the playoffs.  BB talked about that was the defensive game plan before the game and after the game he said they did a good job of taking TY out of the game.

 

TY had 104 yards receiving.  If he gets that and a team still feels they shut him down.... that is a #1 WR.

 

Ehh perhaps they feel like that because TY didn't move the chains a lot (104 yards on 4 receptions) but also wasn't able to break anything for TD's.  

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What else does TY need to be prove?.

 

More plays being made in more various routes.

 

Watch that highlight video and you will see that about half that TY makes the play on are Fly routes, Post Routes, and Corner routes, all deep routes.  This is where he excels and his excellent at these, I'd argue possibly the best in the league at these 3 routes.

 

He made a couple of good plays on each of the drag, out, & curl routes (medium routes)  He's above average here but not really good.  He fails to stand out here.

 

In terms of the short routes he made one run after the catch play on a slant and one play on a flat route because of good blocking.  He's maybe average at these at best.

 

To be a true #1 IMO he needs to be good or better at every route.  He's only good or better at 3 routes, above average at 3 routes and just average at 2.  

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To be a true #1 IMO he needs to be good or better at every route.  He's only good or better at 3 routes, above average at 3 routes and just average at 2.  

 

More reading of coverages is necessary for underneath routes, will come with experience. 2 years of Luck and we have seen him zoned in on Reggie because Reggie recognizes those coverages and soft spots in zones faster and that is why Luck looks towards him constantly. Luck is ahead of the rest of his draft class on his understanding of the route concepts, far enough that only a vet like Reggie is on par with him, which explains their connection too.

 

Second, Luck's accuracy on connecting with TY or even his TEs on underneath routes is still a work in progress, IMO. Thus, both of these are works in progress and a continuity in offensive system (2nd year of Pep's) is only going to help both Luck and TY in the chemistry department to run the whole route tree.

 

Marvin never won jump balls to make his living, he did it by working with Peyton a LOT and running all kinds of routes using his speed and separation. TY will get there this year. Reggie did not start lighting it up till year 3 of his career, so lets not expect everyone at Luck's understanding level, yet :). TY is well ahead of Reggie w.r.t career progress for the first 2 years.

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if Hilton isn't a number one then you weren't watching him after Wayne went down

You mean when he couldn't get open for a few games because he didn't have Wayne getting all of the defensive attention? He adapted finally but he is not and never will be a number one and it has more to do with physical limitations than anything else.

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TY runs a lot more routes than deep and screens.

I would like to see him develop more in running those routes.  If he does that, and he shows he is durable enough to take the hits that come along with running routes towards the middle of the field, then I would say he's a #1.  Developing those routes more would also help him be more consistent in his stats per game

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You mean when he couldn't get open for a few games because he didn't have Wayne getting all of the defensive attention? He adapted finally but he is not and never will be a number one and it has more to do with physical limitations than anything else.

It's premature to say he will never be a #1.

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You mean when he couldn't get open for a few games because he didn't have Wayne getting all of the defensive attention? He adapted finally but he is not and never will be a number one and it has more to do with physical limitations than anything else.

Yes, because no wr ever has been great that's under six feet tall. gimme a break

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You are right but not many receivers his size ever become a #1. Marvin might be the closest but he isn't Marvin Harrison.

 

Antonio Brown (5'10", 185), Steve Smith (5'9", 185) when he played for the Panthers etc. disagree with you, both are 5'10" or shorter like T.Y. (5'10", 183)

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