call me whatever, but there is something off about Luck
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ATL did not get Turner. They eventually trade up in the second for an obscure 3T DT. I read that The GM and HC wanted Latu, but the owner stepped in for Penix because he wanted a succession plan. Read into that what you want. Also, I guess since ATL seemed to want to trade up to 10 for Latu, its seems somebody wanted him pretty highly. That's why there are also thoughts...don't get excited...that Ballard got a bit lucky with latu being there at 15. Basically, the GMs had the 1st round pegged pretty well, then in swoops Blanc and reshuffles the playing deck for everyone. LVR was mad too, because they wanted Penix at 13. So if things would have gone to script....who knows who Ballard would have picked since Latu probably would not have been there. -
It comes down to having a basic understanding of the broad buckets. Generally, first rounders will be expected to play at a high NFL level sooner than the guy you pick in the third round, and then the guy you pick in the 5th round. If the guy you pick in the 5th round steps up and plays well very soon, your team got the eval wrong and so did every other team. If only one other team got it right, your wrongness that drove you to wait until round 5 made you miss your guy. I think teams boards are different, but what team these days would not want a coverage LB that steps up right away. All schemes can use that. Same with a quick twitch corner with arms, a safety that can read and react, a WR that can run patterns, or always find the zone, and can catch (see Puca). Its not like teams will reject these players because they are not perfect scheme fits. If they think those guys can play well very soon, they go high on the boards. Teams missed it with Puca too, unless you think his success is all because of McVay and Stafford. IDK, seems like a stretch to me.
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Is that how it went down? It was a curious move because they just paid Cousins a bag. But this approach worked pretty well for GB. ATL's offense is pretty stacked and putting in a proven QB like Cousins will allow them to maximize and evaluate those pieces immediately. Meanwhile, Penix develops in the background. And they bought themselves 3 years to find out. Plus, they did get Turner as well, who I think was their #1 target. -
By RollerColt · Posted
I have to say, I do agree that a lot of GMs are on a similar level as far as skill and talent. That's how they got to where they are. Some will be more inexperienced than others, some are more aggressive while others are passive. I think there are a lot of varying philosophies on running an NFL team compared to running a normal business. I don't think everyone's board is the same. I'm sure there are some overlap especially at the top. But in the middle I would imagine it's far more varied. There's only so many scouts, so many days and hours, and thousands of players to evaluate. They aren't going to catch them all. But, I will say there is always going to be some luck and chance probability involved when it comes to the draft. That's just a truth in life itself. -
I meant whether or not he's the pick. Going into the draft they probably have scenarios of how to pursue the existing roster based upon if a player falls. Example, if DeFo is near contract time, the falling of Murphy begins a thought about not resigning DeFO more strongly than what you'd think if you thought he would have been gone by pick 15. I'm not saying specific here about the Colts and Defo. What I'm saying is that these are the types of things that happen with all 32 teams, and Ballard can't tell you that another team is going to execute a strategic roster plan...and not snipe or will snipe based upon a player falling. Instead of not knowing how this plays out, Ballard telling us what other teams will do would be described as knowing how this stuff will play out.
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