DHB will have a breakout year

[BronxColtNYC]

Sorry I haven't posted in a while guys. I have had a busy week at work and haven't had much time to research topics I've wanted to post. Today, I wanted to predict whether DHB will have a great year or not and I found some interesting stats.

So, drafted #7 overall in 2009 and released due to salary cap reasons and disappointing play, how has DHB progressed over his first 4 years in the league?

You can see all the stats here https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/13/on-the-market-huff-and-heyward-bey/ but I will pull out a few.

Pass Drop Rate:

2009 = 35.7% 2010 = 21.2% 2011 = 8.6% 2012 = 12.8%

The performance level of 2011/2012 is MUCH improved over 2009/2010.

In 2012, Donnie Avery was the worst WR in the league with a drop rate of 16.67% followed by T.Y. Hilton also at 16.67% (on fewer targets so he is ranked the 2nd worst since Avery had more chances to show failure).

Guys in the 12.ish percent range = Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson.

Yards After Catch per Reception:

2009 = 1.6 2010 = 4.1 2011 = 4.7 2012 = 5.8

This tells me that he is "getting" how NFL defense work and is able to position his catches in such a way that he has "wiggle" room after the catch to make more yards.

Forced Missed Tackles:

2009 = 0 2010 = 3 2011 = 9 2012 = 10

Again, getting to know the NFL game and being comfortable in it. Stopping thinking and starting reacting which, given his speed, is a good thing.

Closing paragraph:

"Again, he’s always had to live with the high expectations of being the seventh pick in the draft as well as the high price tag that comes with Top-10 pick status. His $8.2 million cap hit last season made him one of the league’s most overvalued players, but with a fresh start on the horizon, Heyward-Bey has a chance to escape the pressure of being a game-breaking wide receiver and continue his development into a dependable secondary option in a well-rounded passing attack."

I am liking this signing more and more with everything I read. At a cap hit of $2.5m, he could be very good value if he can connect with Luck and learn the offense effectively. Add short passes and potential for more YAC this year, and DHB could have a career year.

[IndyColtScout]

I think he will play better here for sure. But, I don't see the coaches investing in him. I feel like we brought him in here for one reason: to help ease the transition for a 1st round WR. DHB will get the early targets over the rookie probably cause the rookie won't be ready til mid season. Until that rookie is ready, someone has to open up the defense a little, that's where DHB comes in. Doesn't mean I'm right.

[Colts_Fan12]

Sorry I haven't posted in a while guys. I have had a busy week at work and haven't had much time to research topics I've wanted to post. Today, I wanted to predict whether DHB will have a great year or not and I found some interesting stats.

So, drafted #7 overall in 2009 and released due to salary cap reasons and disappointing play, how has DHB progressed over his first 4 years in the league?

You can see all the stats here https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/13/on-the-market-huff-and-heyward-bey/ but I will pull out a few.

Pass Drop Rate:

2009 = 35.7% 2010 = 21.2% 2011 = 8.6% 2012 = 12.8%

The performance level of 2011/2012 is MUCH improved over 2009/2010.

In 2012, Donnie Avery was the worst WR in the league with a drop rate of 16.67% followed by T.Y. Hilton also at 16.67% (on fewer targets so he is ranked the 2nd worst since Avery had more chances to show failure).

Guys in the 12.ish percent range = Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson.

Yards After Catch per Reception:

2009 = 1.6 2010 = 4.1 2011 = 4.7 2012 = 5.8

This tells me that he is "getting" how NFL defense work and is able to position his catches in such a way that he has "wiggle" room after the catch to make more yards.

Forced Missed Tackles:

2009 = 0 2010 = 3 2011 = 9 2012 = 10

Again, getting to know the NFL game and being comfortable in it. Stopping thinking and starting reacting which, given his speed, is a good thing.

Closing paragraph:

"Again, he’s always had to live with the high expectations of being the seventh pick in the draft as well as the high price tag that comes with Top-10 pick status. His $8.2 million cap hit last season made him one of the league’s most overvalued players, but with a fresh start on the horizon, Heyward-Bey has a chance to escape the pressure of being a game-breaking wide receiver and continue his development into a dependable secondary option in a well-rounded passing attack."

I am liking this signing more and more with everything I read. At a cap hit of $2.5m, he could be very good value if he can connect with Luck and learn the offense effectively. Add short passes and potential for more YAC this year, and DHB could have a career year.

I agree I love the signing I believe with Luck and Reggie plus our FO and coaches that he will have a breakout year and I hope that will make us keep him around for awhile

[Colts_Fan12]

I think he will play better here for sure. But, I don't see the coaches investing in him. I feel like we brought him in here for one reason: to help ease the transition for a 1st round WR. DHB will get the early targets over the rookie probably cause the rookie won't be ready til mid season. Until that rookie is ready, someone has to open up the defense a little, that's where DHB comes in. Doesn't mean I'm right.

I hope we don't draft a WR in the 1st

[BronxColtNYC]

I see WR in 3rd.

[NewEra]

I agree! I think he's just now coming into his own. He very well could be the guy to replace Wayne. IMHO I think he can be that good. If not no sweat. We move on.

[BlueCollarColts]

I hope we don't draft a WR in the 1st

Between Darrius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, and T.Y. Hilton plus Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, idk why we would target another pass catcher in the 1st round when we could go OL or pass rusher

[BlueCollarColts]

I agree! I think he's just now coming into his own. He very well could be the guy to replace Wayne. IMHO I think he can be that good. If not no sweat. We move on.

This is exactly how I feel, I feel he has the potential to replace Wayne but if he doesn't no big deal

[Colts_Fan12]

Between Darrius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, and T.Y. Hilton plus Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, idk why we would target another pass catcher in the 1st round when we could go OL or pass rusher

I don't either I hope cooper falls but if not then Idk cause there are many ppl I like after cooper

[TKnight24]

His "breakout" year starts against his old team on opening day

I'm still not sold on him as a player, but we'll see what happens this season

[Buck Showalter]

hope DHB forces me to go buy a JERZY...

[Warhorse]

Sorry I haven't posted in a while guys. I have had a busy week at work and haven't had much time to research topics I've wanted to post. Today, I wanted to predict whether DHB will have a great year or not and I found some interesting stats.

....................

Nice thread and great write up.

[ColtStrong]

Between Darrius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, and T.Y. Hilton plus Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, idk why we would target another pass catcher in the 1st round when we could go OL or pass rusher

Watch them blow everyone's mind, and take Lacy.

[Tark The Shark]

Props to you OP, you do a lot of great write ups based on research.

 

Most of my Raider buddies like the fact that we picked him up. They still believe that he is a good WR but his cost was too much. Now we don't have to pay him a whole lot and he has a lot of quality players around him to help him develop.

[ConBro]

I agree! I think he's just now coming into his own. He very well could be the guy to replace Wayne. IMHO I think he can be that good. If not no sweat. We move on.

Exactly. And Grigson has shown that he operates in this manner-- low-risk signings without worrying about cap hits. If he produces this year to a standard the coaching staff likes, we re-sign.

[jmac_48]

I certainly hope the trend in improvment continues for him!

Nothing could be better for the Colts!

 

But I gotta believe that the guy has got to be motivated to prove the nay-sayers wrong.

A new team, a new start, it couldn't be a better situation for him to excell.

And if he doesn't grab the brass ring this year, who the heck is gonna take a chance on him in the future.

 

We got him cheap, we gave him an opportunity, I hope it works out well!

[Nobody]

I agree.

[IndyColtScout]

Between Darrius Heyward-Bey, Reggie Wayne, and T.Y. Hilton plus Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, idk why we would target another pass catcher in the 1st round when we could go OL or pass rusher

That's a good set of weapons but when you look at these offensive juggernauts like GB, DEN, NE (a few years ago) our weapons aren't as good. When you have an elite QB, you have to give him an elite set of weapons. We are an injury away from having problems. As for OL we have 9 guys who will make the roster. AC-Thomas-AQ-Reitz-Cherilus-Link-McGlynn-Satale-Ijalana. We could use a guy yes, but OL are easier to find useful players late an ever undrafted when compared to finding quality WRs. Gotta go get a WR early.

[SteelCityColt]

Sorry I haven't posted in a while guys. I have had a busy week at work and haven't had much time to research topics I've wanted to post. Today, I wanted to predict whether DHB will have a great year or not and I found some interesting stats.

So, drafted #7 overall in 2009 and released due to salary cap reasons and disappointing play, how has DHB progressed over his first 4 years in the league?

You can see all the stats here https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/03/13/on-the-market-huff-and-heyward-bey/ but I will pull out a few.

Pass Drop Rate:

2009 = 35.7% 2010 = 21.2% 2011 = 8.6% 2012 = 12.8%

The performance level of 2011/2012 is MUCH improved over 2009/2010.

In 2012, Donnie Avery was the worst WR in the league with a drop rate of 16.67% followed by T.Y. Hilton also at 16.67% (on fewer targets so he is ranked the 2nd worst since Avery had more chances to show failure).

Guys in the 12.ish percent range = Victor Cruz, Eric Decker, Randall Cobb, Steve Johnson.

Yards After Catch per Reception:

2009 = 1.6 2010 = 4.1 2011 = 4.7 2012 = 5.8

This tells me that he is "getting" how NFL defense work and is able to position his catches in such a way that he has "wiggle" room after the catch to make more yards.

Forced Missed Tackles:

2009 = 0 2010 = 3 2011 = 9 2012 = 10

Again, getting to know the NFL game and being comfortable in it. Stopping thinking and starting reacting which, given his speed, is a good thing.

Closing paragraph:

"Again, he’s always had to live with the high expectations of being the seventh pick in the draft as well as the high price tag that comes with Top-10 pick status. His $8.2 million cap hit last season made him one of the league’s most overvalued players, but with a fresh start on the horizon, Heyward-Bey has a chance to escape the pressure of being a game-breaking wide receiver and continue his development into a dependable secondary option in a well-rounded passing attack."

I am liking this signing more and more with everything I read. At a cap hit of $2.5m, he could be very good value if he can connect with Luck and learn the offense effectively. Add short passes and potential for more YAC this year, and DHB could have a career year.

 

Thank you once again for an interesting read, the stats confirm my gut feel of a high ceiling low risk signing. I've always had a soft spot for DHB, and felt pity for him for being over drafted by the Raiders. We've got 3 genuine speed threats now in him, TY and Fleener and if teams continue to try and focus on Reggie to try and take him out the game we could do some real damage on O. That's even without mentioning Allen, Ballard etc. 

 

Well that's if we don't continue our novel approach form last year of playing with no O line

[AntonMcG]

That's a good set of weapons but when you look at these offensive juggernauts like GB, DEN, NE (a few years ago) our weapons aren't as good. When you have an elite QB, you have to give him an elite set of weapons. We are an injury away from having problems. As for OL we have 9 guys who will make the roster. AC-Thomas-AQ-Reitz-Cherilus-Link-McGlynn-Satale-Ijalana. We could use a guy yes, but OL are easier to find useful players late an ever undrafted when compared to finding quality WRs. Gotta go get a WR early.

 

Couldn't disagree more. OL is at a premium in the draft because good guys are very hard to come by, especially at the tackle position which requires a very unique skillset and physique. Serviceable WR's are constantly found later in the draft.

 

A quality WR would be nice, but quality would be nice at every position. We have plenty of pass catchers for now in my opinion. And the potential rise of our TEs to prominence could lead to much less emphasis being needed at the WR position, similiar to what has happened in Boston. When you think about it, depth is good, but how many pass catchers can be on the field at one time? It is not the sort of position the usually requires a lot of rotation.

 

 That being said I do see us using a high draft pick on a receiver next year.

[SteelCityColt]

Couldn't disagree more. OL is at a premium in the draft because good guys are very hard to come by, especially at the tackle position which requires a very unique skillset and physique. Serviceable WR's are constantly found later in the draft.

 

A quality WR would be nice, but quality would be nice at every position. We have plenty of pass catchers for now in my opinion. And the potential rise of our TEs to prominence could lead to much less emphasis being needed at the WR position, similiar to what has happened in Boston. When you think about it, depth is good, but how many pass catchers can be on the field at one time? It is not the sort of position the usually requires a lot of rotation.

 

 That being said I do see us using a high draft pick on a receiver next year.

 

Couldn't agree more, I have always been led to understand that after a "franchise" QB, the position with the next highest value to a team is a LT and this is reflected in general by the salary they can command.

[BronxColtNYC]

Couldn't disagree more. OL is at a premium in the draft because good guys are very hard to come by, especially at the tackle position which requires a very unique skillset and physique. Serviceable WR's are constantly found later in the draft.

 

A quality WR would be nice, but quality would be nice at every position. We have plenty of pass catchers for now in my opinion. And the potential rise of our TEs to prominence could lead to much less emphasis being needed at the WR position, similiar to what has happened in Boston. When you think about it, depth is good, but how many pass catchers can be on the field at one time? It is not the sort of position the usually requires a lot of rotation.

 

 That being said I do see us using a high draft pick on a receiver next year.

I agree.

This thread was for those who basically called DHB a bigger Donnie Avery. This shows that he is an upgrade. Although not significant, still an upgrade.

[SteelCityColt]

This thread was for those who basically called DHB a bigger Donnie Avery. This shows that he is an upgrade. Although not significant, still an upgrade.

 

 

This thread was for those who basically called DHB a bigger Donnie Avery. This shows that he is an upgrade. Although not significant, still an upgrade.

 

Not only an upgrade but one who I think does have the potential to be significant.

[IndyColtScout]

Couldn't disagree more. OL is at a premium in the draft because good guys are very hard to come by, especially at the tackle position which requires a very unique skillset and physique. Serviceable WR's are constantly found later in the draft.

A quality WR would be nice, but quality would be nice at every position. We have plenty of pass catchers for now in my opinion. And the potential rise of our TEs to prominence could lead to much less emphasis being needed at the WR position, similiar to what has happened in Boston. When you think about it, depth is good, but how many pass catchers can be on the field at one time? It is not the sort of position the usually requires a lot of rotation.

That being said I do see us using a high draft pick on a receiver next year.

Why would we draft a tackle? We have Costanzo Cherilus & Link. I agree with you, no one is counting on an UDFA for a LT, but the Cołts aren't in that market.

When it comes to the other 4 OL positions though I 100% disagree with you that it's easier to find a WR later than an OL. Just to name a few all pro/pro bowl players that weren't 1st rounders at OL: Jason Peters, Mike Roos, Marshal Yanda, Jahri Evans, Jermon Bushrod, Jeff Saturday, Max Unger, Carl Nicks, Sebastian Vollmer, Chris Snee, Kris Dielman, Andre Gurode All post 2009. Compared to WR you have Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Marshall, & Cruz.

Granted I know there are 5 OL starters compared to 2WR starters, but if you look at every team in NFL its easy to find at least one guy who went undrafted or picked very late starting on the Oline that isn't a LT. Since we aren't drafting a LT, I don't see a counter argument here.

[IndyColtScout]

Take it a step further look at the inside OL in the pro bowl this year: Wade Smith, Richie Incognito, Zane Beadles, Josh Sitton,Chris Myers none of these guys are high picks.

[AntonMcG]

Why would we draft a tackle? We have Costanzo Cherilus & Link. I agree with you, no one is counting on an UDFA for a LT, but the Cołts aren't in that market.

When it comes to the other 4 OL positions though I 100% disagree with you that it's easier to find a WR later than an OL. Just to name a few all pro/pro bowl players that weren't 1st rounders at OL: Jason Peters, Mike Roos, Marshal Yanda, Jahri Evans, Jermon Bushrod, Jeff Saturday, Max Unger, Carl Nicks, Sebastian Vollmer, Chris Snee, Kris Dielman, Andre Gurode All post 2009. Compared to WR you have Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Marshall, & Cruz.

Granted I know there are 5 OL starters compared to 2WR starters, but if you look at every team in NFL its easy to find at least one guy who went undrafted or picked very late starting on the Oline that isn't a LT. Since we aren't drafting a LT, I don't see a counter argument here.

 

I made a general statement, nothing regarding team needs.

 

The majority of the guys you listed there are 2nd or 3rd round draft picks. That is being drafted pretty high, not to mention the many other pro bowl and all-pro o-linemen that are drafted in the first.

 

And you made my argument for me.... 5 o-linemen start, 2 WRs start. Over twice as many.

 

I never claimed you would get an elite WR late in the draft, but neither will you find an elite o-lineman, unless you are lucky in either case. However the O-Line has had a huge resurgence in the draft in recent years, where we have seen a lot of Centers and Guards go early.

 

You said we must go WR in the first... where do you put this receiver? I don't see us playing many 4WR 2 TE sets... unless we play without a QB. It is a luxury pick and if we were the 49'ers it would make sense. But we are incomplete in other starting positions.

 

That said BPA is always the way to go, but I think we will be in a better spot next year to grab a WR early when it is projected to be a strong class and when Wayne is a year older and DHB is out of contract.

[NewEra]

His "breakout" year starts against his old team on opening day

I'm still not sold on him as a player, but we'll see what happens this season

Better stock up on ape juice cause you will be slamming it by the cases! Call it a guy feeling or blind faith but I think he's going to come out if his shell this year.

[LockeDown]

I made a general statement, nothing regarding team needs.

 

The majority of the guys you listed there are 2nd or 3rd round draft picks. That is being drafted pretty high, not to mention the many other pro bowl and all-pro o-linemen that are drafted in the first.

 

And you made my argument for me.... 5 o-linemen start, 2 WRs start. Over twice as many.

 

I never claimed you would get an elite WR late in the draft, but neither will you find an elite o-lineman, unless you are lucky in either case. However the O-Line has had a huge resurgence in the draft in recent years, where we have seen a lot of Centers and Guards go early.

 

You said we must go WR in the first... where do you put this receiver? I don't see us playing many 4WR 2 TE sets... unless we play without a QB. It is a luxury pick and if we were the 49'ers it would make sense. But we are incomplete in other starting positions.

 

That said BPA is always the way to go, but I think we will be in a better spot next year to grab a WR early when it is projected to be a strong class and when Wayne is a year older and DHB is out of contract.

 

I agree with IndyColtScout on this one.  Every guru says this is a lineman draft.  They say the best will be taken in the top half of the first round and after that, there's not much difference between the bottom of the first and the rest of the draft.  It's a really deep draft and I also think we need to get the WR early and we can get the linemen late....unless Cooper or Warmack fall that is.

[AntonMcG]

I agree with IndyColtScout on this one.  Every guru says this is a lineman draft.  They say the best will be taken in the top half of the first round and after that, there's not much difference between the bottom of the first and the rest of the draft.  It's a really deep draft and I also think we need to get the WR early and we can get the linemen late....unless Cooper or Warmack fall that is.

 

Fair enough, I personally would love Warford or Long as well, and we could trade back to the second to get them, but they are probably gone by the third. I just don't see the talent at WR this year especially compared to what we have.

 

I want an ILB as well.

[coltsfanatic24]

I think DHB will have a great year with  70 catches 1,095 yards 11 tds

[ponyboy]

So what kind of numbers would be regarded as a breakout year?

 

My expectations are about the same as Avery's numbers last year (though Avery was probably a better deep threat, DHB a bigger threat to take a slant for big yards).  I also think Avery did fine (not great) last year except for maybe 4-5 too many drops.

[erock]

Better stock up on ape juice cause you will be slamming it by the cases! Call it a guy feeling or blind faith but I think he's going to come out if his shell this year.

Ape juice and guy feelings?? Sounds like a party.

[BrentMc11]

Not only an upgrade but one who I think does have the potential to be significant.

I am glad I read down the page Steel City!

 

I was one on here that really did not root for the DHB signing.  After further review (as the referees say ) I think that 'potential' as you say might just reach significant levels of impact.

 

Thinking about the underneath routes...YACs to occur...designed roll outs....and the weaponry....I think those who under-estimate what we have at TE...and WR...may be taken aback by this offense when it cranks up.

 

I think we add receiver late....a Mellette of Elon myself, but we will learn in about 5 days, 15 hours and 30 minutes....

 

Good post OP!!

[NewEra]

Ape juice and guy feelings?? Sounds like a party.

Gut* lol, damn auto correct. Oh and apple juice! Lol, wow. Need to read my posts before I hit submit. These damn little keys lol

[NewEra]

I am glad I read down the page Steel City!

I was one on here that really did not root for the DHB signing. After further review (as the referees say ) I think that 'potential' as you say might just reach significant levels of impact.

Thinking about the underneath routes...YACs to occur...designed roll outs....and the weaponry....I think those who under-estimate what we have at TE...and WR...may be taken aback by this offense when it cranks up.

I think we add receiver late....a Mellette of Elon myself, but we will learn in about 5 days, 15 hours and 30 minutes....

Good post OP!!

.

Glad to see you come around! I try to look at things from every angle. But I know some of us old timers get set in our ways sometimes ;)

[BrentMc11]

.

Glad to see you come around! I try to look at things from every angle. But I know some of us old timers get set in our ways sometimes ;)

HA HA!

 

Love it NewEra!  i think I enjoy the great debates.....then reality sets in that the draft is 5 days away.  I then come to a realization that it is beyond our control....

 

Then all of a sudden we will hear:  "With the 24th pick of the 2013 NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts select __________"  Who will it be?  

[NewEra]

HA HA!

Love it NewEra! i think I enjoy the great debates.....then reality sets in that the draft is 5 days away. I then come to a realization that it is beyond our control....

Then all of a sudden we will hear: "With the 24th pick of the 2013 NFL draft, the Indianapolis Colts select __________" Who will it be?

No doubt no doubt! Going to be a long week till Thursday night! I really have no idea who we will pick. But I'm pretty sure whoever Grigson picks they will come in and make an impact unlike the sweet pea burns, pitcock and many many others we had to endure.

[BrentMc11]

No doubt no doubt! Going to be a long week till Thursday night! I really have no idea who we will pick. But I'm pretty sure whoever Grigson picks they will come in and make an impact unlike the sweet pea burns, pitcock and many many others we had to endure.

I think with some of the trade rumors' around the league for movement for more picks etc., this could be as exciting a draft in a long time.

 

I cannot wait to see the banter back and forth arguing who we "should have" selected.  We have so many across the board on RBs>>>>>>>>>>>>>>OL  all across the charts....  Let the fun begin....again!  We thought FA was crazy!!

[NewEra]

I think with some of the trade rumors' around the league for movement for more picks etc., this could be as exciting a draft in a long time.

I cannot wait to see the banter back and forth arguing who we "should have" selected. We have so many across the board on RBs>>>>>>>>>>>>>>OL all across the charts.... Let the fun begin....again! We thought FA was crazy!!

All starts in the trenches. Control the line on both sides of the ball and you put yourself in an easier position to win. A rb is nothing without a good line! I like the guys we have personally.

[BrentMc11]

All starts in the trenches. Control the line on both sides of the ball and you put yourself in an easier position to win. A rb is nothing without a good line! I like the guys we have personally.

i am sticking to my Bigs by BPA.......Ballard's job to take to the next level...trenches it is my friend!!