Would you trade Andrew Luck for Aaron Rodgers or any other QB right now?

[Superman]

For a forum moderator you sure do like to insight me. I have been trying to politely bow out of this convo given you have reminded me this thread is not about Manning. Do you think you can step off just a little?

 

How am I inciting you? By asking you to support your claim? Tony Sullivan did the same thing, and you came back with "the guy did not look the same to me."

 

I'm not trying to incite you. But your assertions don't hold up to scrutiny.

[amfootball]

How am I inciting you? By asking you to support your claim? Tony Sullivan did the same thing, and you came back with "the guy did not look the same to me."

 

I'm not trying to incite you. But your assertions don't hold up to scrutiny.

No, because when I do answer and support my claims you will say this thread is about Manning. It is a no win situation. I am done.

[Superman]

No, because when I do answer and support my claims you will say this thread is about Manning. It is a no win situation. I am done.

 

You're supporting your claims with more claims of your own. When someone says "the numbers show Manning got better throughout the year," and you come back with "it didn't seem that way to me," that's not supporting your claims.

 

And then you come back and claim you're being picked on, being bullied by the moderator, and nothing of the sort is happening. You're on a forum where people are going to defend Manning. Some will do it out of sentimentality, but sometimes you're going to get some reasoned, fact-based rebuttals. And "the numbers show Manning got better throughout the year" is fact-based. "It didn't seem that way to me" is opinion.

[amfootball]

You're supporting your claims with more claims of your own. When someone says "the numbers show Manning got better throughout the year," and you come back with "it didn't seem that way to me," that's not supporting your claims.

 

And then you come back and claim you're being picked on, being bullied by the moderator, and nothing of the sort is happening. You're on a forum where people are going to defend Manning. Some will do it out of sentimentality, but sometimes you're going to get some reasoned, fact-based rebuttals. And "the numbers show Manning got better throughout the year" is fact-based. "It didn't seem that way to me" is opinion.

So stats tell the whole story? Do stats record his wobbly balls of which there were many? No. Do the stats show that he played far interfior teams when his numbers appeared to go up and that his offense got more used to him? No. It is hardly just opinion here. If you watched the games like I did, I did not see the same QB as I did before he missed a season. To claim otherwise is naive. The Ravens playoff game, the second half and double OT may have been his worst football of the season. 

[shecolt]

 

 

I am pretty sure it was Ed Reed after the playoff game that said they played Manning deep in the first half and when they realized he could not throw more than 20 yards they came way up in the second half and put pressure on him. I will try to find the quote.

 

 

 

As much as I hate to further derail this thread and make it about Peyton; after reading this portion of your post, I was curious and I tried to do a search myself for such a quote.  All I could find was this which doesn't support your claim:

 

 

Steve Wyche of NFL.com relayed from one Ravens source that safety Ed Reed played in the deep center field the entire game.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000126494/article/was-peyton-mannings-arm-strength-a-problem

 

 

 

So, I am wondering . . . were you able find such a quote made by Ed Reed or anyone else?

[amfootball]

As much as I hate to further derail this thread and make it about Peyton; after reading this portion of your post, I was curious and I tried to do a search myself for such a quote.  All I could find was this which doesn't support your claim:

 

 

Steve Wyche of NFL.com relayed from one Ravens source that safety Ed Reed played in the deep center field the entire game.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000126494/article/was-peyton-mannings-arm-strength-a-problem

 

 

 

So, I am wondering . . . were you able find such a quote made by Ed Reed or anyone else?

I am still looking. It was said on WEEI here in Boston multiple times but now I am wondering if it ever did appear in print. I can't find the radio broadcast. I am not 100 percent sure if it was Reed or Lewis but it was a player on D.

[amfootball]

Here is some of the quote but it is not from the Ravens player on D, I still need to find that one.

 

There was also the matter of Peyton Manning's arm. For whatever reason—possibly the cold weather having some effect on his grip—Manning did not appear to have the velocity needed for deep passes. Only 2 of his 43 attempts went more than 15 yards downfield. (Quarterbacks typically throw about 20 percent of their passes deep downfield, and Manning averaged 19 percent in the regular season.) So even if the probabilities suggest that Denver should’ve tried to score, you can understand why, given all these factors, Fox sat on the ball.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

[Superman]

So stats tell the whole story? Do stats record his wobbly balls of which there were many? No. Do the stats show that he played far interfior teams when his numbers appeared to go up and that his offense got more used to him? No. It is hardly just opinion here. If you watched the games like I did, I did not see the same QB as I did before he missed a season. To claim otherwise is naive. The Ravens playoff game, the second half and double OT may have been his worst football of the season. 

 

Again, I didn't claim he was the same quarterback he was before injury. I claimed that he got better as the season went on.

 

And the thing about stats is that they're far less subjective than "I did not see the same QB" is. You say "his numbers appeared to go up." No, his numbers went up.

 

And let's say that he wasn't the same quarterback he was before he missed a season (which is entirely possible, and which I'm not arguing). He was still good enough to have his second best statistical season. Let's say he's not 100%, and let's say he never gets back to where he used to be. He's still good enough. He was good enough this season, despite making a stupid mistake in double overtime (where he very well may have been fatigued, but that doesn't have anything to do with making a rookie mistake). He was good enough that the Broncos had a 7 point lead with less than a minute left.

 

So again, let's say he is physically compromised. He's still good enough. And his numbers -- no they don't tell the whole story, but they are certainly a significant part of it -- are a testament to that fact. One of the best quarterbacks of all time (even you would admit that), a player who is threatening every major statistical category, in his 15th pro season, had the second best statistical year of his career. And he may not have been 100%. He's good enough.

[amfootball]

Again, I didn't claim he was the same quarterback he was before injury. I claimed that he got better as the season went on.

 

And the thing about stats is that they're far less subjective than "I did not see the same QB" is. You say "his numbers appeared to go up." No, his numbers went up.

 

And let's say that he wasn't the same quarterback he was before he missed a season (which is entirely possible, and which I'm not arguing). He was still good enough to have his second best statistical season. Let's say he's not 100%, and let's say he never gets back to where he used to be. He's still good enough. He was good enough this season, despite making a stupid mistake in double overtime (where he very well may have been fatigued, but that doesn't have anything to do with making a rookie mistake). He was good enough that the Broncos had a 7 point lead with less than a minute left.

 

So again, let's say he is physically compromised. He's still good enough. And his numbers -- no they don't tell the whole story, but they are certainly a significant part of it -- are a testament to that fact. One of the best quarterbacks of all time (even you would admit that), a player who is threatening every major statistical category, in his 15th pro season, had the second best statistical year of his career. And he may not have been 100%. He's good enough.

Yep, don't disagree with any of this. This is the thing though, you would agree that he is now another year older and his arm weakness/hand numbness still lingers and now the Broncos owe him $40 mil guaranteed. That was my point. That is a huge risk on a guy that will only decline further given his age and possibly still have to deal with a weakened arm that significantly hampered him in cold weather which is likely to happen again, the cold weather that is, come playoffs again.

[BleedingBlue]

Nope.. We have a star, might as well keep him

I was thinking the same thing in March 2012.

[Superman]

Yep, don't disagree with any of this. This is the thing though, you would agree that he is now another year older and his arm weakness/hand numbness still lingers and now the Broncos owe him $40 mil guaranteed. That was my point. That is a huge risk on a guy that will only decline further given his age and possibly still have to deal with a weakened arm that significantly hampered him in cold weather which is likely to happen again, the cold weather that is, come playoffs again.

 

I don't have to agree with the bolded; it's a fact of the universe.

 

As for his arm and hand, I don't know whether it still lingers or not. Nerve damage sometimes gets better, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it settles somewhere shy of normal. I won't speculate as to whether Manning's arm and hand are or ever will be back to "normal." It's like I said, even if it gets no better, his performance last year was sufficient. And I don't believe his arm strength was at fault for the last interception against the Ravens, nor do I think it had anything to do with the cold weather. I think he made a stupid decision, bottom line. And he deserves blame for the loss, for sure, but really, the defense threw the game away in regulation. That's why I can't subscribe to the idea that his play wasn't sufficient.

 

His arm might get weaker as well, and the Broncos are now on the hook for the next two years. That's their burden to bear at this point. The Colts opted out last offseason. But I think the Broncos' doctors did their due diligence before they exercised the option on the next two years. But honestly, paying $20m/year for a top notch quarterback, assuming his performance doesn't totally fall off a cliff, is par for the course.

[BPM_Colt]

I was thinking the same thing in March 2012.

Lol good point... Luck is also in his 2nd year and not coming off several neck surgeries

[amfootball]

I don't have to agree with the bolded; it's a fact of the universe.

 

As for his arm and hand, I don't know whether it still lingers or not. Nerve damage sometimes gets better, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it settles somewhere shy of normal. I won't speculate as to whether Manning's arm and hand are or ever will be back to "normal." It's like I said, even if it gets no better, his performance last year was sufficient. And I don't believe his arm strength was at fault for the last interception against the Ravens, nor do I think it had anything to do with the cold weather. I think he made a stupid decision, bottom line. And he deserves blame for the loss, for sure, but really, the defense threw the game away in regulation. That's why I can't subscribe to the idea that his play wasn't sufficient.

 

His arm might get weaker as well, and the Broncos are now on the hook for the next two years. That's their burden to bear at this point. The Colts opted out last offseason. But I think the Broncos' doctors did their due diligence before they exercised the option on the next two years. But honestly, paying $20m/year for a top notch quarterback, assuming his performance doesn't totally fall off a cliff, is par for the course.

Only 2 of his 43 pass attempts went more than 15 yards downfield, http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

 

The league average is 20 percent and he had been averaging 19 percent during the season. That is a result of his weakened arm and like I said in the playoffs it will always be cold come Jan in Denver. I don't disagree that he can still put up stats but the goal is to win rings. No one in Denver much cares if he wins another league MVP if he can't win in the playoffs.

 

While you want to lay the blame on the defense mostly, you ignore the fact that his special teams gave him 14 poins and his pick six gave the Ravens points so really he was kept in the game by his special teams and if he did not have the pick six than the game winning ball by Flacco never happens.

 

Like I have said before, he is the 19 mil QB with the football pedigree and clearly the best player on the field. He played nowhere near that with three TOs that led to 17 points. It was not a good game by him no matter how you try to spin it and does put into question whether or not he can lead the Broncos come playoff time if his arm is not 100 percent.

 

I agree about Denver feeling it is worth the risk on him. But like I said, he did not look like the Manning of old and the Manning of old was not great in the playoffs anyways so paying him 40 mil guaranteed is a monumental risk IMO. 

[jshipp23]

Only 2 of his 43 pass attempts went more than 15 yards downfield, http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

 

The league average is 20 percent and he had been averaging 19 percent during the season. That is a result of his weakened arm and like I said in the playoffs it will always be cold come Jan in Denver. I don't disagree that he can still put up stats but the goal is to win rings. No one in Denver much cares if he wins another league MVP if he can't win in the playoffs.

 

While you want to lay the blame on the defense mostly, you ignore the fact that his special teams gave him 14 poins and his pick six gave the Ravens points so really he was kept in the game by his special teams and if he did not have the pick six than the game winning ball by Flacco never happens.

 

Like I have said before, he is the 19 mil QB with the football pedigree and clearly the best player on the field. He played nowhere near that with three TOs that led to 17 points. It was not a good game by him no matter how you try to spin it.

 

I agree about Denver taking the risk on him but 40 mil guaranteed is a big risk at this point.

BOOOM!! A.M. is on point killin it today...

[Superman]

Only 2 of his 43 pass attempts went more than 15 yards downfield, http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

 

The league average is 20 percent and he had been averaging 19 percent during the season. That is a result of his weakened arm and like I said in the playoffs it will always be cold come Jan in Denver. I don't disagree that he can still put up stats but the goal is to win rings. No one in Denver much cares if he wins another league MVP if he can't win in the playoffs

 

All that is fine. I don't think it matters. If he can throw three touchdowns and help deliver a one score lead that holds until less than a minute left in the fourth quarter, and he can do that without throwing the ball downfield, it doesn't matter. The score matters.

 

While you want to lay the blame on the defense mostly, you ignore the fact that his special teams gave him 14 poins and his pick six gave the Ravens points so really he was kept in the game by his special teams and if he did not have the pick six than the game winning ball by Flacco never happens.

 

I don't want to lay the blame on the defense mostly. But don't you agree that the defense deserves blame?

 

I said earlier that Manning clearly deserves blame for the interception. Just in case you missed it, here it is again: Manning deserves blame for the Ravens loss because of his stupid interception.

 

But that doesn't change the fact -- the FACT -- that the game should have ended in regulation.

 

Like I have said before, he is the 19 mil QB with the football pedigree and clearly the best player on the field. He played nowhere near that with three TOs that led to 17 points. It was not a good game by him no matter how you try to spin it and does put into question whether or not he can lead the Broncos come playoff time if his arm is not 100 percent.

 

I didn't say it was a good game by him. I said he was good enough.

 

And I'll give you this: the cold weather and his hand numbness might have played a factor in the fumbles. But I don't think the cold weather prevented him from playing well enough to help deliver a one score lead, one that the defense blew late in the fourth quarter.

 

And that's with him at less than 100%.

 

Also, sometimes quarterbacks have bad games. It's not unique to Manning. And he doesn't only have bad games in cold weather.

 

I agree about Denver feeling it is worth the risk on him. But like I said, he did not look like the Manning of old and the Manning of old was not great in the playoffs anyways so paying him 40 mil guaranteed is a monumental risk IMO. 

 

What else are you gonna do? You signed him to help you become a contender. He helped you become a contender. He had a good year, and wasn't even fully healthy. You had home field through the playoffs, and the game should have been won in regulation. Are you going to just release him and hand it over to Brock Osweiler? Draft Matt Barkley?

 

There's risk inherent in paying any player elite compensation. They might get hurt. They might not live up to the contract. But you weigh the risk, and if you determine the potential benefit outweighs that risk, then you pull the trigger. I hear your concern about the $40m guarantee, and I can assure you that the people actually paying that $40m are more concerned than you are. As such, I'm certain they did their due diligence, and determined that the potential benefit outweighs the risk. Otherwise they would have released him.

 

And, just to reiterate, if Manning wasn't fully healthy in 2012, and still managed to have his second best statistical season, I think there's a lot of potential benefit in keeping him.

[Superman]

Yeah, but then add in what you would have to pay Rodgers and were saying bye bye to half the players on the team. Were only 9 mil under the cap right now with Lucks very small contract, add in what Rodgers contract would be and we would have to release a ton of guys. I think a team can easily compete for super bowls without a top 3 QB in the league as long as you have a good team around a top 10 QB which we will have.

 

 

The cap space would be an issue to start, but it could be worked out without losing anyone too valuable. Certainly not half the players on the team. And I did say that the cap might present an issue. I'm not ignoring that.

 

You're right that a team can compete and even win a Super Bowl without a top three quarterback. The Ravens did. But having a guy like Rodgers gives you an even better chance over the next several seasons.

 

Look, I just do not ever want us to build a team like Polian did ever again. It's the wrong formula even though it gave us successful regular seasons. Once the playoffs came around we were always out toughed by other teams, with the exception of our super bowl yrs.. I also am not trading 10-13 yrs. of Luck for 5-7 yrs. of Rodgers. For all we know Luck could be better than Rodgers in 2 more yrs.. I don't understand your way of thinking on this topic, but that's OK, we can agree to disagree, but there is just no way I would even entertain the thoughts of making even a straight up Luck for Rodgers trade, let alone throwing in extra.

 

This is also being discussed in that other thread. I don't think the pay Manning was receiving or even the structure of his contracts was an issue for our team. I think the problem is that our drafting deteriorated, we started overpaying our own free agents, we got hit with some injuries, and suddenly we had holes all over our roster. We went from having a pretty decent offensive line to having a pretty bad offensive line, almost overnight. We went from having a solid secondary that fit our scheme to having no talent outside of Bethea. And so on.

 

You're never going to draft perfectly, but an example is Brown over Laurinitis. Laurinitis would have infused the team with some young talent and would have made Brackett expendable. And then, with a thin, aging roster, now injury losses hurt even more. Retirements kill you. The trickle down effect erodes your roster, year after year. But it starts with substandard drafting.

 

As for the Luck for Rodgers issue, I admit it's a radical way of thinking. I'm not saying Grigson should be on the phone trying to get rid of Luck. I'm a Luck fan, and I hope and expect that he'll do great things for our team. This all started in a thread where a poster was calling Luck elite, and I said that, though I don't think Luck is elite, I wouldn't trade him for anyone other than Rodgers. It's not like I have an issue with our quarterback.

 

It really just comes down to the fact that Rodgers is a certainty right now; he's just had the best two year stretch of quarterbacking probably in league history. He immediately takes our offense to elite status. And we have a sound roster otherwise, I think, with not too many holes, assuming our signings work out. We would be an immediate title contender. Whereas with Luck, while we all expect great things, there's still a chance that he doesn't turn out to be quite as good as we hope. He's a long way off from Rodgers yet, and the odds are that he'll NEVER get to that level of quarterbacking (like I said, Rodgers is out of this world right now). So, if I were certain that Luck was going to have 10-13 years of play at the level we hope, I wouldn't do this trade. But we simply can't be certain of that.

[amfootball]

All that is fine. I don't think it matters. If he can throw three touchdowns and help deliver a one score lead that holds until less than a minute left in the fourth quarter, and he can do that without throwing the ball downfield, it doesn't matter. The score matters.

 

 

I don't want to lay the blame on the defense mostly. But don't you agree that the defense deserves blame?

 

I said earlier that Manning clearly deserves blame for the interception. Just in case you missed it, here it is again: Manning deserves blame for the Ravens loss because of his stupid interception.

 

But that doesn't change the fact -- the FACT -- that the game should have ended in regulation.

 

 

I didn't say it was a good game by him. I said he was good enough.

 

And I'll give you this: the cold weather and his hand numbness might have played a factor in the fumbles. But I don't think the cold weather prevented him from playing well enough to help deliver a one score lead, one that the defense blew late in the fourth quarter.

 

And that's with him at less than 100%.

 

Also, sometimes quarterbacks have bad games. It's not unique to Manning. And he doesn't only have bad games in cold weather.

 

 

What else are you gonna do? You signed him to help you become a contender. He helped you become a contender. He had a good year, and wasn't even fully healthy. You had home field through the playoffs, and the game should have been won in regulation. Are you going to just release him and hand it over to Brock Osweiler? Draft Matt Barkley?

 

There's risk inherent in paying any player elite compensation. They might get hurt. They might not live up to the contract. But you weigh the risk, and if you determine the potential benefit outweighs that risk, then you pull the trigger. I hear your concern about the $40m guarantee, and I can assure you that the people actually paying that $40m are more concerned than you are. As such, I'm certain they did their due diligence, and determined that the potential benefit outweighs the risk. Otherwise they would have released him.

 

And, just to reiterate, if Manning wasn't fully healthy in 2012, and still managed to have his second best statistical season, I think there's a lot of potential benefit in keeping him.

I think it is critical that he be able to get the ball downfield as you can get away with short ball against bad teams which he did for most of the year but when he got into the playoffs he needed to be able to go downfield. The Ravens D ate him up in the second half and sat on the receiver routes. He only led one scoring drive the entire second half and double OT. Ironically, he was beaten by a QB in Flacco who throws the best deep ball in the game.

 

In terms of Denver's D, they were flat out beat all game by Flacco. Again, you seem to not want to give any credit to the Ravens O but Smith torched Bailey all game and so did Jacoby Jones. The last play of the game did not end the game. It only tied it. Manning still had 31 seconds and took a knee. Then he had TWO possessions in OT or was it three? At any rate, he did nothing with those and then threw the fatal pick. Like I said, it was his worst half of football all season. So yes, I blame him the most. The pick six, the fumble, the horrific pick at the end and his inability to do anything outside of that one drive the entire second half. He is the guy that needs to get it done if the Broncos are going to win. He is the 19 mil player and the best player on the field.

 

In terms of Elway, this is my honest opinion. I think he got Manning to get out from under Tebow. There was no way he could not have started Tebow last year unless he signed a QB like Manning. In terms of what he could have done. How about draft a young QB like Harbaugh did with Kaepernick? I have to think Elway has the same type of QB prowess as Harbaugh and could have found a guy to groom and start. That would have been a much better route than tying up 100 mil dollars in an aging QB coming off of four neck surgeries still rehabing his arm/hand. RIght now the Broncs look eerily similar to the Colts, smallish defense built on speed and to play with the lead and Elway just signed Welker at 6mil even though the Broncos O was fine last year with Manning's MVP season. He is falling prey to Polian's flawed strategy of trying to put a lot around Manning while thinking his D will be good enough wrongly assuming that Manning will always have the lead in the playoffs. He won't. Not if last year is any indication of how he will look in cold temps come playoff time.

[jshipp23]

I think it is critical that he be able to get the ball downfield as you can get away with short ball against bad teams which he did for most of the year but when he got into the playoffs he needed to be able to go downfield. The Ravens D ate him up in the second half and sat on the receiver routes. He only led one scoring drive the entire second half and double OT. Ironically, he was beaten by a QB in Flacco who throws the best deep ball in the game.

 

In terms of Denver's D, they were flat out beat all game by Flacco. Again, you seem to not want to give any credit to the Ravens O but Smith torched Bailey all game and so did Jacoby Jones. The last play of the game did not end the game. It only tied it. Manning still had 31 seconds and took a knee. Then he had TWO possessions in OT or was it three? At any rate, he did nothing with those and then threw the fatal pick. Like I said, it was his worst half of football all season. So yes, I blame him the most. The pick six, the fumble, the horrific pick at the end and his inability to do anything outside of that one drive the entire second half. He is the guy that needs to get it done if the Broncos are going to win. He is the 19 mil player and the best player on the field.

 

In terms of Elway, this is my honest opinion. I think he got Manning to get out from under Tebow. There was no way he could not have started Tebow last year unless he signed a QB like Manning. In terms of what he could have done. How about draft a young QB like Harbaugh did with Kaepernick? I have to think Elway has the same type of QB prowess as Harbaugh and could have found a guy to groom and start. That would have been a much better route than tying up 100 mil dollars in an aging QB coming off of four neck surgeries still rehabing his arm/hand. RIght now the Broncs look eerily similar to the Colts, smallish defense built on speed and to play with the lead and Elway just signed Welker at 6mil even though the Broncos O was fine last year with Manning's MVP season. He is falling prey to Polian's flawed strategy of trying to put a lot around Manning while thinking his D will be good enough wrongly assuming that Manning will always have the lead in the playoffs. He won't. Not if last year is any indication of how he will look in cold temps come playoff time.

This is the most talented team all around that Peyton has ever had...I don't understand how they are under the cap , but oh well....The Colts never had Von Miller on D either. The weather there is gonna be the factor I believe, if he had that team on the Colts we would get home field and it would be curtains for everybody..His best scenario would be to not be a top seed and play at Indy and Houston to get to the Super Bowl...Who knows that may happen as San Diego and KC will be better...

[amfootball]

This is the most talented team all around that Peyton has ever had...I don't understand how they are under the cap , but oh well....The Colts never had Von Miller on D either. The weather there is gonna be the factor I believe, if he had that team on the Colts we would get home field and it would be curtains for everybody..His best scenario would be to not be a top seed and play at Indy and Houston to get to the Super Bowl...Who knows that may happen as San Diego and KC will be better...

The SB is in NY this year. It will be snowing most likely. His best bet is to wait for 2014.

 

And Freeney and Matthias were one of the best combo rush duos in the game. Miller and Dumerville don't even come close. I won't even insult the great Bob Sanders and compare him with Rahim Moore. And Thomas/ Decker are nowhere near Harrison/Wayne. And MacGahee/Moreno are not Faulk/James.

[bahhummbug]

I don't have to agree with the bolded; it's a fact of the universe.

 

As for his arm and hand, I don't know whether it still lingers or not. Nerve damage sometimes gets better, sometimes it doesn't, sometimes it settles somewhere shy of normal. I won't speculate as to whether Manning's arm and hand are or ever will be back to "normal." It's like I said, even if it gets no better, his performance last year was sufficient. And I don't believe his arm strength was at fault for the last interception against the Ravens, nor do I think it had anything to do with the cold weather. I think he made a stupid decision, bottom line. And he deserves blame for the loss, for sure, but really, the defense threw the game away in regulation. That's why I can't subscribe to the idea that his play wasn't sufficient.

 

His arm might get weaker as well, and the Broncos are now on the hook for the next two years. That's their burden to bear at this point. The Colts opted out last offseason. But I think the Broncos' doctors did their due diligence before they exercised the option on the next two years. But honestly, paying $20m/year for a top notch quarterback, assuming his performance doesn't totally fall off a cliff, is par for the course.

I had the same surgery at the same time.Never regained any feeling in lower forarm and hand.It has been nearly 3 years and i see top Doctors and they tell me its permanent.I was told from the first surgery if nerves do not regenerate before 1 year than they will not return.I now am waiting for a neurostimulator implant already had the trial.

[amfootball]

I had the same surgery at the same time.Never regained any feeling in lower forarm and hand.It has been nearly 3 years and i see top Doctors and they tell me its permanent.I was told from the first surgery if nerves do not regenerate before 1 year than they will not return.I now am waiting for a neurostimulator implant already had the trial.

Sorry to hear this. Are you able to function alright in your daily life?

 

I can't imagine how Peyton was able to deal with that and play football at the level he did. I think he is still hopeful but that is interesting that you were told after a year that the nerves will not come back.

[shecolt]

Here is some of the quote but it is not from the Ravens player on D, I still need to find that one.

 

There was also the matter of Peyton Manning's arm. For whatever reason—possibly the cold weather having some effect on his grip—Manning did not appear to have the velocity needed for deep passes. Only 2 of his 43 attempts went more than 15 yards downfield. (Quarterbacks typically throw about 20 percent of their passes deep downfield, and Manning averaged 19 percent in the regular season.) So even if the probabilities suggest that Denver should’ve tried to score, you can understand why, given all these factors, Fox sat on the ball.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/john_fox_broncos_ravens_did_the_coach_s_risk_averse_approach_cost_denver.html

 

I honestly don't know if Peyton's arm was giving him problems or not.  But, the above just looks like the opinion of the guy who wrote that article and doesn't support your claim that Ed Reed (or Lewis, or any other player on D) said that they came way up in the second half.

 

In the article I previously linked, the author had a somewhat different opinion:

 

I came into this exercise expecting to see more poor throws by Manning. They weren't there. It was a very good, not great, game by Manning until his final throw. I included a strong early throw from Manning to Eric Decker on the sideline to establish that he was throwing pretty well early. His two touchdowns were gorgeous touch passes. But Manning also showed good arm strength and velocity on passes during the third quarter and even in overtime.

 

The last throw in the video above goes to Decker as well. That's only a few plays before Manning's game-turning interception. Manning showed good velocity on the throw. Anyone saying Manning couldn't throw the ball late in the game is cherry-picking plays.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000126494/article/was-peyton-mannings-arm-strength-a-problem

 

 

Also, I was curious about the stat that was given in the article you linked where it said that QB's typically throw about 20% of their passes deep downfield as I had never really paid attention to that before. 

 

So, I found this compilation of stats for the last three years (note that it doesn't include this past season.  If it did I would think that Flacco's % would go way up.)   which seems to pretty much contradict that as there was only one QB who had more than 20% of their passes thrown as deep balls. 

 

  1.  Tim Tebow . . . 21.81%

  2.  Vince Young . . . 17.58%

  3.  Cam Newton . . . 17.21%

  4.  Matt Moore . . . 16.88%

  5.  Bruce Gradkowski . . . 15.64%

  6.  Eli Manning . . . 15.15%

  7.  Michael Vick . . . 14.87%

  8.  Joe Flacco . . . 14.71%

  9.  Derek Anderson . . . 14.34%

10.  Ben Roethlisberger . . . 13.57%

 

 

 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/06/29/three-years-of-deep-passing/

[amfootball]

I honestly don't know if Peyton's arm was giving him problems or not.  But, the above just looks like the opinion of the guy who wrote that article and doesn't support your claim that Ed Reed (or Lewis, or any other player on D) said that they came way up in the second half.

 

In the article I previously linked, the author had a somewhat different opinion:

 

I came into this exercise expecting to see more poor throws by Manning. They weren't there. It was a very good, not great, game by Manning until his final throw. I included a strong early throw from Manning to Eric Decker on the sideline to establish that he was throwing pretty well early. His two touchdowns were gorgeous touch passes. But Manning also showed good arm strength and velocity on passes during the third quarter and even in overtime.

 

The last throw in the video above goes to Decker as well. That's only a few plays before Manning's game-turning interception. Manning showed good velocity on the throw. Anyone saying Manning couldn't throw the ball late in the game is cherry-picking plays.

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000126494/article/was-peyton-mannings-arm-strength-a-problem

 

 

Also, I was curious about the stat that was given in the article you linked where it said that QB's typically throw about 20% of their passes deep downfield as I had never really paid attention to that before. 

 

So, I found this compilation of stats for the last three years (note that it doesn't include this past season.  If it did I would think that Flacco's % would go way up.)   which seems to pretty much contradict that as there was only one QB who had more than 20% of their passes thrown as deep balls. 

 

  1.  Tim Tebow . . . 21.81%

  2.  Vince Young . . . 17.58%

  3.  Cam Newton . . . 17.21%

  4.  Matt Moore . . . 16.88%

  5.  Bruce Gradkowski . . . 15.64%

  6.  Eli Manning . . . 15.15%

  7.  Michael Vick . . . 14.87%

  8.  Joe Flacco . . . 14.71%

  9.  Derek Anderson . . . 14.34%

10.  Ben Roethlisberger . . . 13.57%

 

 

 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/06/29/three-years-of-deep-passing/

Yes, I am still searching. The quote from the Ravens D player was said on WEEI here in Boston but I can't find it in print. I am still searching and will post as soon as I can find it if it is out there.

 

Judging from the stats you found, it looks like the average is closer to 17 percent vs. 20 percent. Still, Manning only had two attempts the whole game over 15 yards. That is a very big indicator that he was not able or at least willing to try to get the ball downfield. It also may have been the function of the weather as it is much harder to throw downfield in the cold/wind than warmer temps.

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

The answer from me is absolutely not....Curious what other people have to say on this topic as I've been bashed for saying he is elite right now...

 

[Le Neon]

Yes, I am still searching. The quote from the Ravens D player was said on WEEI here in Boston but I can't find it in print. I am still searching and will post as soon as I can find it if it is out there.

 

Judging from the stats you found, it looks like the average is closer to 17 percent vs. 20 percent. Still, Manning only had two attempts the whole game over 15 yards. That is a very big indicator that he was not able or at least willing to try to get the ball downfield. It also may have been the function of the weather as it is much harder to throw downfield in the cold/wind than warmer temps.

 

 

Rank Player Current Team Deep Att Total Att % Att 1 Tim Tebow NYJ 77 353 21.81% 2 Vince Young BUF 93 529 17.58% 3 Cam Newton CAR 89 517 17.21% 4 Matt Moore MIA 106 628 16.88% 5 Bruce Gradkowski CIN 51 326 15.64% 6 Eli Manning NYG 248 1637 15.15% 7 Michael Vick PHI 120 807 14.87% 8 Joe Flacco BAL 225 1530 14.71% 9 Derek Anderson CAR 73 509 14.34% 10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 191 1408 13.57%

 

The average for the top ten in the league over the last several years is precisely 15.4415%.  And that number appears to be skewed by a number of pretty terrible QBs.  The likely average certainly less then 15%, and probably closer to 10% based on the evidence from PFF, ie if you were to compare elite QBs none of these guys would make the list except maybe Eli and Big Ben. 

Manning got roughly 5% if we assume for now that 2 deep attempts is factual.  If you're underestimating and he really threw 3+ then he's right around the league average.

 

 

Lets try another metric from shecolts reference:

 

Rank Player Current Team Deep TD 1 Drew Brees NO 41 2 Eli Manning NYG 31 3 Philip Rivers SD 29 4 Aaron Rodgers GB 27 4 Joe Flacco BAL 27 6 Tom Brady NE 24 7 Tony Romo DAL 21 8 Peyton Manning DEN 20 9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19 10 Matt Schaub HOU 17 10 Mark Sanchez NYJ 17

 

Over the three year time period Peyton Manning is 8th in the league.  It's noteworthy because he only played 2 of the three seasons recorded.  It's possible he had ridiculous success throwing deep 3 years ago pre injury (I'm far too lazy to bother with the additional research).  It's more likely that his consistent success at deep touchdown passes (defined as TD pass resulting from targeting a receiver 20 yards or further downfield) has been maintained in his return from injury.

 

I thought he passed the eye test last year, and the numbers don't appear to back your assertions, FWIW.  You may still be right, there just doesn't seem to be much evidence for his severely restricted arm strength at this time.

 

EDIT:  Bah, my tables have been demolished.

[shecolt]

Yes, I am still searching. The quote from the Ravens D player was said on WEEI here in Boston but I can't find it in print. I am still searching and will post as soon as I can find it if it is out there.

 

Judging from the stats you found, it looks like the average is closer to 17 percent vs. 20 percent. Still, Manning only had two attempts the whole game over 15 yards. That is a very big indicator that he was not able or at least willing to try to get the ball downfield. It also may have been the function of the weather as it is much harder to throw downfield in the cold/wind than warmer temps.

 

As Le Neon posted, the average is probably closer to 10% as those shown with the highest percentages are only 10 of more than 32 QB's as Tim Tebow and Cam Newton only played one of the three years in the stats that were compiled and the stats of Tim Tebow especially, really skew those stats.  So, I don't know where the writer of that article you linked got his 20%. 

 

I have been trying to help you find that quote, but have come up with nothing.  Are you sure that it was direct quote from a player on the Raven's D and not just the opinion of some dude on the radio?  I guess I just find it hard to believe that it would be so hard to find such a quote as I think the sport's media (who loves to discuss how good Peyton's arm is/isn't) would not have picked up and ran with such a quote by a Raven's player. 

 

Ironically, I was able to find a quote from a Raven's D player; but it was about passes made by Tom Brady:

 

Tom Brady has a flaw, significant enough to be fatal, if exploited, one Baltimore Ravens defender insists.

 

"He throws all of his balls low," McPhee says.

 

So how has he gotten away with it through three Super Bowl victories?

 

"He just throws it fast and he always gets good pockets," McPhee said the Ravens' victory. "But I tried to stay in front of him after watching film and knowing where he likes to go and how he likes to do it. So that was my best advantage, just get my hands up."

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/ravens/2013/01/21/ravens-pernell-mcphee-say-patriots-tom-brady-has-flaw/1851011/

[amfootball]

As Le Neon posted, the average is probably closer to 10% as those shown with the highest percentages are only 10 of more than 32 QB's as Tim Tebow and Cam Newton only played one of the three years in the stats that were compiled and the stats of Tim Tebow especially, really skew those stats.  So, I don't know where the writer of that article you linked got his 20%. 

 

I have been trying to help you find that quote, but have come up with nothing.  Are you sure that it was direct quote from a player on the Raven's D and not just the opinion of some dude on the radio?  I guess I just find it hard to believe that it would be so hard to find such a quote as I think the sport's media (who loves to discuss how good Peyton's arm is/isn't) would not have picked up and ran with such a quote by a Raven's player. 

 

Ironically, I was able to find a quote from a Raven's D player; but it was about passes made by Tom Brady:

 

Tom Brady has a flaw, significant enough to be fatal, if exploited, one Baltimore Ravens defender insists.

 

"He throws all of his balls low," McPhee says.

 

So how has he gotten away with it through three Super Bowl victories?

 

"He just throws it fast and he always gets good pockets," McPhee said the Ravens' victory. "But I tried to stay in front of him after watching film and knowing where he likes to go and how he likes to do it. So that was my best advantage, just get my hands up."

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/ravens/2013/01/21/ravens-pernell-mcphee-say-patriots-tom-brady-has-flaw/1851011/

I am sorry. I have not had a chance to keep searching. Life has been very hectic. I will try to continue to look today. It was not some yahoo on the radio, it was Jerry Callahan from WEEi that said it more than once. I will look for the transcript assuming it is online.

 

An average is just that, an average of ALL 32 teams so the average is 20 percent. Manning's average had been 19 percent for the season so that is the more pertinent stat anyways. He only threw two passes over 15 yards out of more than 40+ attempts. If you watch the second half of the game you can see the Ravens defenders come up on the Broncos receivers and sit on the short routes. This is why Manning only led one scoring drive in the second and had two TOs compared to his first half in which he led two scoring drives and only had one TO.

 

In terms of the Brady quote, QBs are supposed to throw the ball low for two reasons, first, it keeps their receivers safe because you want your receivers going low for a ball versus high where the defender can hit him and hurt him. Second, it keeps balls from getting tipped in the air causing TOs. Not sure what the player saw on film this year as opposed to Brady's other 12 seasons but that is what he does which is why he has such low INTs numbers and great stats overall in terms of yardage and completions. He also has very few balls batted which I think is what the defender is getting at here. Obviously a clean pocket helps but Brady also knows how to move in the pocket so he has clean lanes.

[lollygagger8]

Let's just keep Luck. I wouldn't want to have another useless Colts jersey lol.

[BrentMc11]

Let's just keep Luck. I wouldn't want to have another useless Colts jersey lol.

Put masking tape over Luck....and write Rodgers....not Raji....

[Le Neon]

I am sorry. I have not had a chance to keep searching. Life has been very hectic. I will try to continue to look today. It was not some yahoo on the radio, it was Jerry Callahan from WEEi that said it more than once. I will look for the transcript assuming it is online.

 

An average is just that, an average of ALL 32 teams so the average is 20 percent. Manning's average had been 19 percent for the season so that is the more pertinent stat anyways. He only threw two passes over 15 yards out of more than 40+ attempts. If you watch the second half of the game you can see the Ravens defenders come up on the Broncos receivers and sit on the short routes. This is why Manning only led one scoring drive in the second and had two TOs compared to his first half in which he led two scoring drives and only had one TO.

 

In terms of the Brady quote, QBs are supposed to throw the ball low for two reasons, first, it keeps their receivers safe because you want your receivers going low for a ball versus high where the defender can hit him and hurt him. Second, it keeps balls from getting tipped in the air causing TOs. Not sure what the player saw on film this year as opposed to Brady's other 12 seasons but that is what he does which is why he has such low INTs numbers and great stats overall in terms of yardage and completions. He also has very few balls batted which I think is what the defender is getting at here. Obviously a clean pocket helps but Brady also knows how to move in the pocket so he has clean lanes.

 

I just watched about 3-4 minutes of combined highlights from the Ravens game and saw Manning complete three deep passes in the first half by the 15 yard criterion.  I saw him attempt another that was dropped by DT in the second half.  

 

The guy from Slate appears to be incorrect about the Ravens-Broncos game, which leads me to doubt the veracity of his regular season statistics.

[amfootball]

I just watched about 3-4 minutes of combined highlights from the Ravens game and saw Manning complete three deep passes in the first half by the 15 yard criterion.  I saw him attempt another that was dropped by DT in the second half.  

 

The guy from Slate appears to be incorrect about the Ravens-Broncos game, which leads me to doubt the veracity of his regular season statistics.

I have not watched the entire game in awhile so you may be right and the writer may be off. I did listen to Manning's press conference and he said the Ravens changed to a two man deep zone in the second half making it difficult for him to throw deep. He said Reed and Pollard were lurking back there so he had to change from what he did in the first half. You will also see that the corners came up and started to pinch on the inside guys to try to force Manning to throw deep so the safeties could pick him off. So I think perhaps the deep ball thing was a combo of the defense the Ravens played in the second half in particular and also the cold weather and Manning's arm strength which weakened noticeably by the fourth quarter.

[shecolt]

I am sorry. I have not had a chance to keep searching. Life has been very hectic. I will try to continue to look today. It was not some yahoo on the radio, it was Jerry Callahan from WEEi that said it more than once. I will look for the transcript assuming it is online.

 

An average is just that, an average of ALL 32 teams so the average is 20 percent. Manning's average had been 19 percent for the season so that is the more pertinent stat anyways. He only threw two passes over 15 yards out of more than 40+ attempts. If you watch the second half of the game you can see the Ravens defenders come up on the Broncos receivers and sit on the short routes. This is why Manning only led one scoring drive in the second and had two TOs compared to his first half in which he led two scoring drives and only had one TO.

 

In terms of the Brady quote, QBs are supposed to throw the ball low for two reasons, first, it keeps their receivers safe because you want your receivers going low for a ball versus high where the defender can hit him and hurt him. Second, it keeps balls from getting tipped in the air causing TOs. Not sure what the player saw on film this year as opposed to Brady's other 12 seasons but that is what he does which is why he has such low INTs numbers and great stats overall in terms of yardage and completions. He also has very few balls batted which I think is what the defender is getting at here. Obviously a clean pocket helps but Brady also knows how to move in the pocket so he has clean lanes.

 

Huh?  You have lost me here.  Previously (post #207) you quoted a writer who said that QB's typically throw 20% of their passes deep downfield.  When I provided you with stats that were compiled over a three-year period showing that this wasn't true, you responded (post #223)  that it looks like the average is closer to 17% than 20%.  Now, you are back to saying it is 20%???  What am I missing?

 

And, in those stats that I provided there was only one QB (Tim Tebow) who met and also slightly exceeded that 20% with 21.81% of his passes being deep passes.  Of the top ten, Big Ben came in last with an average of 13.57%.  So how can you possible say that 20% is the average of all 32 QB's?

 

I was wrong when I said that Tim Tebow only played one of the three years in that three-year compilation.  It was two years.  Sorry about that.  But, I'm pretty sure that Cam Newton had only played one year which is why I said that those stats had to include more than 32 QB's.  When I looked more closely at the information in the link I had provided, it did say that the stats were based on 42 QB's.  And, when you look at that top ten list, you will notice that many did not make it which included Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, and Peyton Manning. 

 

So even if all of the 32 QB's who did not make that top ten list all had the exact same average of 13.56% (which would put them just a tad below Big Ben at #10) and then did an average of all those 42 QB's during that three-year period, the average would be 14.18% . . . not 20% or even 17%.  So, I ask again . . . what am I missing?

 

As far as Peyton averaging 19% for the season, is that a stat that is easily available online?  Or, are you just taking the word of the guy who wrote that article?  I'm curious because I find that hard to believe since Peyton didn't even average 13.57% or above in the two years he played in that three-year compilation of stats. 

 

Yes, McPhee was saying that Brady has a low release and that knowing that helped him bat down a pass.  I have no idea if Brady has a low release and for all I know, McPhee may have just been bragging and full ot it. 

 

The reason I found it ironic was because I was searching for a quote from a player on the Raven's D critiquing Peyton's passing ability and found one for Brady instead.  ;)

[Colts_Fan12]

After reading all this and seeing how many colts fans would actually trade Luck for Rodgers if they could is really crazy to me and its kinda makes me sick Rodgers is an aging QB I don't care if he is proven he's still alot older and IMO Luck could have the chance to be better then Rodgers

[amfootball]

Rank Player Current Team Deep Att Total Att % Att 1 Tim Tebow NYJ 77 353 21.81% 2 Vince Young BUF 93 529 17.58% 3 Cam Newton CAR 89 517 17.21% 4 Matt Moore MIA 106 628 16.88% 5 Bruce Gradkowski CIN 51 326 15.64% 6 Eli Manning NYG 248 1637 15.15% 7 Michael Vick PHI 120 807 14.87% 8 Joe Flacco BAL 225 1530 14.71% 9 Derek Anderson CAR 73 509 14.34% 10 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 191 1408 13.57%

 

The average for the top ten in the league over the last several years is precisely 15.4415%.  And that number appears to be skewed by a number of pretty terrible QBs.  The likely average certainly less then 15%, and probably closer to 10% based on the evidence from PFF, ie if you were to compare elite QBs none of these guys would make the list except maybe Eli and Big Ben. 

Manning got roughly 5% if we assume for now that 2 deep attempts is factual.  If you're underestimating and he really threw 3+ then he's right around the league average.

 

 

Lets try another metric from shecolts reference:

 

Rank Player Current Team Deep TD 1 Drew Brees NO 41 2 Eli Manning NYG 31 3 Philip Rivers SD 29 4 Aaron Rodgers GB 27 4 Joe Flacco BAL 27 6 Tom Brady NE 24 7 Tony Romo DAL 21 8 Peyton Manning DEN 20 9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 19 10 Matt Schaub HOU 17 10 Mark Sanchez NYJ 17

 

Over the three year time period Peyton Manning is 8th in the league.  It's noteworthy because he only played 2 of the three seasons recorded.  It's possible he had ridiculous success throwing deep 3 years ago pre injury (I'm far too lazy to bother with the additional research).  It's more likely that his consistent success at deep touchdown passes (defined as TD pass resulting from targeting a receiver 20 yards or further downfield) has been maintained in his return from injury.

 

I thought he passed the eye test last year, and the numbers don't appear to back your assertions, FWIW.  You may still be right, there just doesn't seem to be much evidence for his severely restricted arm strength at this time.

 

EDIT:  Bah, my tables have been demolished.

Thank you this is great stuff. The writer that I quoted said the average was about 20 percent but he did not say that was an average of the last three years so perhaps he is looking at a larger frame of time. But the more important fact here is that Peyton is 8th in the league in deep ball passes the last three years and only played in two of them as you note. So he is one of the top 10 deep throw passers which makes perfect sense.

 

My point was not about the entire season as he did throw plenty deep during the regular season but the playoff game against the Ravens. The writer said he only attempted a couple of passes of more than 15 yards during the game in which he threw the ball 40+ times. I have seen Manning attempt to throw the ball15 yards more than twice in just one possession much less an entire game. Now someone else said that he had watched the first half of the game and Manning attempted at least three throws of more than 15 yards according to his estimation. I am also too lazy and tired to watch the whole game to decipher this.

 

Manning himself said during his press conference that he did not attempt to go deep in the second half because of the coverage of the Ravens. I still maintain that his arm did weakened in that playoff game because of the elements and he did not throw deep because he knew he could not get it there with enough zip. And you certainly do not try Ed Reed in that situation. :-)

[Qwiz]

After reading all this and seeing how many colts fans would actually trade Luck for Rodgers if they could is really crazy to me and its kinda makes me sick Rodgers is an aging QB I don't care if he is proven he's still alot older and IMO Luck could have the chance to be better then Rodgers

6 years of certainty or 10 years of "potential"?

[Le Neon]

Thank you this is great stuff. The writer that I quoted said the average was about 20 percent but he did not say that was an average of the last three years so perhaps he is looking at a larger frame of time. But the more important fact here is that Peyton is 8th in the league in deep ball passes the last three years and only played in two of them as you note. So he is one of the top 10 deep throw passers which makes perfect sense.

 

My point was not about the entire season as he did throw plenty deep during the regular season but the playoff game against the Ravens. The writer said he only attempted a couple of passes of more than 15 yards during the game in which he threw the ball 40+ times. I have seen Manning attempt to throw the ball15 yards more than twice in just one possession much less an entire game. Now someone else said that he had watched the first half of the game and Manning attempted at least three throws of more than 15 yards according to his estimation. I am also too lazy and tired to watch the whole game to decipher this.

 

Manning himself said during his press conference that he did not attempt to go deep in the second half because of the coverage of the Ravens. I still maintain that his arm did weakened in that playoff game because of the elements and he did not throw deep because he knew he could not get it there with enough zip. And you certainly do not try Ed Reed in that situation. :-)

 

Fair enough, though I think we saw different things with plenty of zip on his second half throws.  If he makes it deeper into the playoffs this season we'll have more data to base our opinions on.

[Le Neon]

After reading all this and seeing how many colts fans would actually trade Luck for Rodgers if they could is really crazy to me and its kinda makes me sick Rodgers is an aging QB I don't care if he is proven he's still alot older and IMO Luck could have the chance to be better then Rodgers

 

We have a fairly young superstar QB setting the league on fire versus a QB with superstar potential who isn't there yet.  I understand preferring Luck as a Colts fan, but how could you be surprised that fans would be willing to take a sure thing?

[Colts_Fan12]

We have a fairly young superstar QB setting the league on fire versus a QB with superstar potential who isn't there yet. I understand preferring Luck as a Colts fan, but how could you be surprised that fans would be willing to take a sure thing?

There isn't anything sure about Rodgers no one on the forum has any clue wat he will do that's wat I don't get none of us know wat he will do sure it's highly likely he will be good but do you know for sure it's not a sure thing he could come here and be average

[Superman]

There isn't anything sure about Rodgers no one on the forum has any clue wat he will do that's wat I don't get none of us know wat he will do sure it's highly likely he will be good but do you know for sure it's not a sure thing he could come here and be average

 

The odds strongly favor Rodgers continuing to get better, no matter where he plays. To suggest that he'd suddenly be average, after putting up the best two year stretch in quarterbacking history, is kind of crazy. The odds are far greater that Luck winds up being more of a second tier quarterback (which is far above average, like Matt Ryan), than that Rodgers suddenly becomes just average (like Matt Schaub). It's a laughable concept.

 

You called Rodgers an aging quarterback earlier; every quarterback is aging. But at 29 years old, he's probably just entering his peak. And he sat on the bench his first three seasons, so he hasn't taken the physical abuse the typical 29 year old has. He's only five years older than Luck.  If he were a couple years older, that would probably be enough for me to say that I'd pass. But the age is close enough to not be a deal killer, in my book.

 

I'll say again, there's zero chance this would happen. I'm only defending the idea because I don't want people to think I'm just talking crazy, haven't really thought about what I'm saying, or that I don't like Luck for some reason. I'm very happy with who our quarterback is, and I believe that he's going to develop into a high quality player. He even has a chance to become truly elite (Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees). But weighing the positives against the negatives, I would take Rodgers right now, and for the next five-plus years, because a) he's a proven commodity, and b) there's still plenty of tread on his tires. Manning, Brady and Brees are too old, and no one else is nearly good enough.

[Colts_Fan12]

The odds strongly favor Rodgers continuing to get better, no matter where he plays. To suggest that he'd suddenly be average, after putting up the best two year stretch in quarterbacking history, is kind of crazy. The odds are far greater that Luck winds up being more of a second tier quarterback (which is far above average, like Matt Ryan), than that Rodgers suddenly becomes just average (like Matt Schaub). It's a laughable concept.

You called Rodgers an aging quarterback earlier; every quarterback is aging. But at 29 years old, he's probably just entering his peak. And he sat on the bench his first three seasons, so he hasn't taken the physical abuse the typical 29 year old has. He's only five years older than Luck. If he were a couple years older, that would probably be enough for me to say that I'd pass. But the age is close enough to not be a deal killer, in my book.

I'll say again, there's zero chance this would happen. I'm only defending the idea because I don't want people to think I'm just talking crazy, haven't really thought about what I'm saying, or that I don't like Luck for some reason. I'm very happy with who our quarterback is, and I believe that he's going to develop into a high quality player. He even has a chance to become truly elite (Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees). But weighing the positives against the negatives, I would take Rodgers right now, and for the next five-plus years, because a) he's a proven commodity, and b) there's still plenty of tread on his tires. Manning, Brady and Brees are too old, and no one else is nearly good enough.

I understand your point that's just why I said its highly likey he is good but there is always the chance to take a step back is all I'm saying Ik it's is unlikely but still just something I think about I guess lol