Andrew Luck's Stats [Merge]

[ruksak]

The average NFL quarterback last year encompasses the range from Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers to the likes of Blaine Gabbert and Curtis Painter, so I do not find it unfair at all to suggest/hope that Andrew Luck, the QB that some already have as a Super Bowl Champion, and Hall of Fame Quarterback have better #'s than the "Average NFL Quarterback" even in year one.

I don't think it's the right thing to do to demand specific statistics or standards applied by 'joe fan' to the individual performance of a rookie QB. Sure, some folks in their excitement are already fitting Luck for that yellow jacket, but they're not to be taken seriously. There are so many factors which can influence the production of a QB, whether a rookie or not.

If you want to put a name to the 2011 average NFL QB, then it would be some combination of Hasselbeck, Fitzpatrick, Josh Freeman, and Mark Sanchez, so yes, I hope for more than that. While I do have high standards, I do not find hoping for a #1 draft pick to be better than that as being a high standard.

As long as people keep Luck's failures within the proper context. For what it's worth, I agree with you, in that Luck should have all the tools/players at his disposal to mark-up a successful rookie campaign. The kid is going to throw 'painful to watch' interceptions, it's a given and it's acceptable. He'll lose games in the 4th QTR by making a bad decision, he'll hit CB's in the hands, no doubt.

At the end of the season, what constitutes success and failure will vary from fan to fan. Poor statistics aren't that important to me in concern toward judging our new QB. Wins and losses aren't particularly important to me. The static lines of TD's and INT's aren't even that important to me.

I'll judge him fairly with objectivity, and will not consider his draft placement nor whom he's replacing when doing so.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I don't think it's the right thing to do to demand specific statistics or standards applied by 'joe fan' to the individual performance of a rookie QB. Sure, some folks in their excitement are already fitting Luck for that yellow jacket, but they're not to be taken seriously. There are so many factors which can influence the production of a QB, whether a rookie or not.

Unless someone is an employee of an NFL franchise or a legitimate member of the media, I guess they get shoehorned into being "Joe Fan". That's fine. People have different views. I just don't find the expectations of being far better than"Average NFL Quarterback" to be something too big, or some form of albatross for him. Just like Newton last year. He threw for 100 more yards in his first 2 games than he did in his final 4. That increased his expectations. If he had started off with the 754 over the first 4 games and gradually reached 854 in 2, then the hype wouldn't have been as large. In the end it's the same core #'s. If Luck comes out and throws for 150 in game 1 against a top notch defense that isn't the end of the world, just as if he throws for 350 against the same defense doesn't crown him as anything either. It's just game 1 of 16. So I still stand by my expectations that I expect more than the average NFL QB. Right or wrong, that is how I feel.

As long as people keep Luck's failures within the proper context. For what it's worth, I agree with you, in that Luck should have all the tools/players at his disposal to mark-up a successful rookie campaign. The kid is going to throw 'painful to watch' interceptions, it's a given and it's acceptable. He'll lose games in the 4th QTR by making a bad decision, he'll hit CB's in the hands, no doubt.

Every quarterback to play the game has made such mistakes, and everyone from this point forward will continue to do so. It's the art of learning on the job.

At the end of the season, what constitutes success and failure will vary from fan to fan. Poor statistics aren't that important to me in concern toward judging our new QB. Wins and losses aren't particularly important to me. The static lines of TD's and INT's aren't even that important to me.

The team could be 6-10 and Luck has progressed and moved forward. The same team could be 6-10 and Luck's growth isn't very apparent. I'll judge his play for exactly what it is, his play. I'm just saying that heading into the season with all things considered, I hope/wish/want more than an average NFL quarterback. I don't think that is too much to ask for.

I'll judge him fairly with objectivity, and will not consider his draft placement nor whom he's replacing when doing so.

I guess we have differing approaches to that. I encompass the complete picture, which certain directives that I feel can't be ignored. To me that would be like judging or placing the same expectations on Luck and Mr. Irrelevant.

[Superman]

The team could be 6-10 and Luck has progressed and moved forward. The same team could be 6-10 and Luck's growth isn't very apparent. I'll judge his play for exactly what it is, his play. I'm just saying that heading into the season with all things considered, I hope/wish/want more than an average NFL quarterback. I don't think that is too much to ask for.

I agree with that. We should be able to watch him play and see more than an average NFL quarterback. It should be seen from his play that he has the ability to develop into a top notch player. And that's even taking into consideration his growing pains as a rookie, and is mostly without regard for our win/loss record.

However, what I disagree with you on is the numbers. Based on what even good rookie quarterbacks do, expecting Luck's numbers to be better than the league average for last season seems kind of unrealistic. I'll be thrilled if he has that kind of production, because not only will it be better than what we did last season, but it will show that he can handle what we need him to do moving forward. But I think that's a really lofty expectation for a rookie quarterback, playing for a rookie head coach on a team with several question marks.

[ruksak]

I guess we have differing approaches to that. I encompass the complete picture, which certain directives that I feel can't be ignored. To me that would be like judging or placing the same expectations on Luck and Mr. Irrelevant.

I should have been more clear. Of course I would expect more from #1 than I would from #253. In a more proper context, I won't expect him to exceed last years #35 in terms of raw statistics. I only expect him to show a higher ceiling and a greater degree of understanding defenses.

I suppose what I'm saying is that this doesn't have to translate into gaudy stats, a higher total of TD's, yards and fewer INT's than someone else on a different team, in a different situation that was selected 15 picks lower than Luck.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I agree with that. We should be able to watch him play and see more than an average NFL quarterback. It should be seen from his play that he has the ability to develop into a top notch player. And that's even taking into consideration his growing pains as a rookie, and is mostly without regard for our win/loss record.

However, what I disagree with you on is the numbers. Based on what even good rookie quarterbacks do, expecting Luck's numbers to be better than the league average for last season seems kind of unrealistic. I'll be thrilled if he has that kind of production, because not only will it be better than what we did last season, but it will show that he can handle what we need him to do moving forward. But I think that's a really lofty expectation for a rookie quarterback, playing for a rookie head coach on a team with several question marks.

I agree with that. We should be able to watch him play and see more than an average NFL quarterback. It should be seen from his play that he has the ability to develop into a top notch player. And that's even taking into consideration his growing pains as a rookie, and is mostly without regard for our win/loss record.

However, what I disagree with you on is the numbers. Based on what even good rookie quarterbacks do, expecting Luck's numbers to be better than the league average for last season seems kind of unrealistic. I'll be thrilled if he has that kind of production, because not only will it be better than what we did last season, but it will show that he can handle what we need him to do moving forward. But I think that's a really lofty expectation for a rookie quarterback, playing for a rookie head coach on a team with several question marks.

That average on a per game basis is: 20/34 230 yards 1.5 td's and 1 int. Again, I would be disappointed in those #'s in the grand scheme of things for the most part. Obviously if he started slow, and improved each quarter of the season then it can off set some of that disappointment, but I do expect more than the average NFL quarterback even in year 1.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I should have been more clear. Of course I would expect more from #1 than I would from #253. In a more proper context, I won't expect him to exceed last years #35 in terms of raw statistics. I only expect him to show a higher ceiling and a greater degree of understanding defenses.

I suppose what I'm saying is that this doesn't have to translate into gaudy stats, a higher total of TD's, yards and fewer INT's than someone else on a different team, in a different situation that was selected 15 picks lower than Luck.

Gaudy to me would be over 4200-4400 30-35 td's. 3 to 1 int rate. Those would be gaudy. I don't expect gaudy but I do expect better than average.

[ruksak]

Gaudy to me would be over 4200-4400 30-35 td's. 3 to 1 int rate. Those would be gaudy. I don't expect gaudy but I do expect better than average.

Sounds good to me.

I'm just a little apprehensive about the way some folks are going to react when they don't see Manning reincarnate in year one. Not you of course, you're known to be a reasonable fan. Others however......not so much.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Sounds good to me.

I'm just a little apprehensive about the way some folks are going to react when they don't see Manning reincarnate in year one. Not you of course, you're known to be a reasonable fan. Others however......not so much.

If that is what they are expecting in year 1 or year 10 or 15 or whatever. I wish them luck.

[NWGirl227]

completion pct: 61.6 (not so high when you consider it's about 9 pct lower than last seasn at Stanford)

yards: 4,788 (probably be doing a lot of passing this season)

touchdowns: 33 (Fleener will probably have a third of those)

interceptions: 15 (not interception prone, but he'll probably throw a lot)

[hungryh1ppos]

Here is some stats that we can realistically look forward to with a rookie QB and Arians as the QB coach or Offensive Coordinator...

Indianapolis Colts 1998 3-13 Arians QB coach

New but Veteran GM Polian, new but Veteran HC Mora. Only Mckinney stuck from the draft other than Manning.

PASSING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Comp Att % Yards TD INT

Peyton Manning 16 326 575 56.70 3739 26 28

RUSHING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Att Yards TD

Marshall Faulk 16 324 1319 6

Cleveland 1998 2-16 Arians Offensive Coordinator

Cleveland was an expansion team with absolutely no talent. Had 1st time HC Chris Palmer. The only players taken in the 1999 draft to stick in the NFL were all defensive players.

PASSING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Comp Att % Yards TD INT

Tim Couch 15 223 399 55.89 2447 15 13

RUSHING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Att Yards TD

Terry Kirby 16 130 452 6

Karim Abdul-Jabbar 10 115 350 0

Pittsburgh 2004 15-1 lost afc championship to NE Arians Offensive Coordinator

Pittsburgh had a good defense, solid WR corps, a stable of RBs, and Bill Cowher

PASSING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Comp Att % Yards TD INT

Ben Roethlisberger 14 196 295 66.44 2621 17 11

RUSHING STATISTICS

Player Name GP Att Yards TD

Jerome Bettis 15 250 941 13

Duce Staley 10 192 830 1

My opinion is the 2012 Colts team is far and away more talented than that barren 1999 Browns team and not comparable to that stacked 2004 Steelers team (Pro-bowler after Pro-bowler on that team that was only lacking a QB before 2004).

As for the 1998 Colts the 2012 Offensive Line situation is very similar (2- 2nd year tackles, a rookie guard, and a FA center and guard), the WR corps - other than a 3rd year Harrison it was a bunch of nothing. TEs - 3rd year Pollard and Dilger to Rookies Fleener and Allen... well the jury is out until the end of the season, RBs - Faulk in a contract year to Brown, Carter, Evans, Ballard... edge is to Marshall, but if we want to have early success Brown better turn into a Greyhound. Defensive front - even though the 2012 team is learning a new system they have tremendously more talent than the 1998 team, Secondary - 1998 team takes the edge just because of the 2nd CB question and lack of depth on the 2012 team.

Now, I know the topic is what will Luck's stats be, but I believe you can't judge the QB without looking at what he is surrounded with. So, my opinion is Luck's numbers will not be as high as Mannings, but will be higher than Roethlisberger's stats (lack of power running game).

[FireJimCaldwell]

Arians wasn't the OC in Pittsburgh until 2007. he was the WR Coach, nor was he the OC in Cleveland for Couch's rookie year. He was still in Indy.

Indianapolis QB Coach 1998-2000

Cleveland OC 2001-2003

Pittsburgh WR Coach 2004-2006

Pittsburgh OC 2007-2011

Indianapolis OC 2012-present

[chad72]

Luck's rookie year stats:

If he throws more than 20 TDs, he will have close to 15 INTs, just a hunch . I expect him to have something like a 20-23 TD, 15 INT year. We will have about 14-18 rushing TDs and 2-3 ST TDs, thanks to T.Y.Hilton.

So, total team TDs will be in the 40-46 range.

Team wins in the 4 to 6 range.

I will stick to those expectations and would be real happy to be surprised with anything that exceeds it.

[The Fish]

Nice Hitchhiker's Guide reference...

Just trying to be factually correct for Mr.Irsay.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Hmmm, my guestimate- Andrew Luck 2012

Cmp% Yds TD Int Y/A Rate Sk

59.1 3786 24 20 6.8 81.1 17

Next year (2013) will be a big improvement in his O stats.

[JWF]

For rookie year?

Ill guess 3200 yards, 17 TDs, 14 INTS, 60%

[Carlos Danger]

your guess is as good as mine ha

think he might be factoring what we could've gotten for the #1 pick if we'd have kept #18.... the point that we gave up a lot is a valid one, i'd say, but (as I think we all now realize) it was much better to address our future QB situation THIS YEAR as opposed to down the road some time (probably next year without a decent 1st round pick) It is still ridiculous to expect 3,700 yds. and 23 tds from ANY rookie.. especially one that is on a team in transition (to avoid the "r word")

[Carlos Danger]

Trading the first overall pick would have given us more draft picks and we would have kept Peyton. So by keeping it we lost all of those. That is what he means.

oh... nvm you got it.

[Jay305]

4,450 yards 39 TDS 3 INTS 4 rush yards 4 TDS

[Fx Stryker]

Regardless of his stats, I hope some of the snarkier fans on this Forum and in the stands are patient with his mistakes. My guess is we will see plenty of bad stuff this year, but as long as he learns from them, we should be fine.

Also if he starts making too numerous of mistakes are people going to just be okay with it because of his "prestige?"

[bavanlan]

The NFL average last year was:

327/ 544 60.1% 3675 yards 23 td 16 int.

For what was given up to draft him, I certainly hope he's far better than the NFL average.

By 'average', I'm assuming you mean the mean. Do you have #'s on the median stats? I'm more inclined to use those, particularly since there was an exceptionally strong performance or two at the high end that may be skewing the #'s upward.

[FireJimCaldwell]

By 'average', I'm assuming you mean the mean. Do you have #'s on the median stats? I'm more inclined to use those, particularly since there was an exceptionally strong performance or two at the high end that may be skewing the #'s upward.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2011/

I kept it pretty simple.

NFL Cmp/Att divided by 32.

NFL Passing yards divided by 32.

NFL TD's & Int divided by 32.

It encompassed every pass thrown. Taking the Colts for example last season, using the mean or median of the 3 QB's wouldn't produce much at all since none of the 3 participated in 16 games. Taking the three as a whole as 1 of 32 is easier to compare to others.

[John Dee]

Here are a few stats... Stanford under Luck, 69 trips into the red zone with 67 scores. 2 missed FG's denying a "perfect" red zone season! 53 TD's 14 FG's...

On play-action passes, he completed 72 percent of his throws with 25 touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two seasons. When teams sent extra pass rushers, Luck capitalized. He finished 2011 with 15 TDs and four interceptions against five or more rushers.

• In the red zone last season, he completed 75 percent of his passes with 27 touchdowns and no interceptions. No one in FBS had a higher TD-Int differential than Luck’s plus-45 over the past two years.

• In fourth quarters and overtime in 2011, Luck had the best completion percentage (81.6) of any quarterback with at least 20 attempts.

• When Stanford was trailing, his passer efficiency was second-highest in the nation over the past two seasons.

He also ran for a 50+ yard TD.... RAN, he ran faster than Tebow's 40 time and one tenth of a sec off CAM's. Oh and by the way,.. they were the 2 leading rushing QB's IN THE NFL last season.

But Luck won't need his legs to make his bones. He can throw the ball.

He will be fine.

[braveheartcolt]

I get a feeling some posters can't bear the thought of Luck being anywhere near as successful as Peyton, in the unlikely event that that happens.

I predict, foolishly, that Luck's rookie stats will be better than Peyton's. I also predict that his career end stats won't.

[chad72]

I get a feeling some posters can't bear the thought of Luck being anywhere near as successful as Peyton, in the unlikely event that that happens.

I predict, foolishly, that Luck's rookie stats will be better than Peyton's. I also predict that his career end stats won't.

I dont think so. Some are being more realistic given how the defenses that start out faster in any normal year, even with vet QBs, took almost half a season to catch up with their schemes last year. That explained the offensive anamolies across the league. That is why most are realistic with Cam Newton's performance being more of an aberration since those pass friendly rules of the league have been in place for about a few years now but no rookie came close to Cam Newton's numbers, or even Peyton's numbers. Heck, I doubt any QB comes close to Marino's numbers, let alone Brees' yardage numbers, we wont see any 5000 yard passer this year unlike both Brees and Stafford last year, the odds on that happening again are pretty low too.

Most of us are playing the safe side of the odds on that. But you choose to taint it with your own bias about other folks' bias, knock yourself out. No one can prevent you from doing that.

If Luck beats the odds by exceeding Peyton's or Cam's numbers, most of us will be happy because Luck can never be Peyton, he can only be Andrew Luck and write his own legacy. That is what most of us are looking forward to, Luck's legacy.

[schwamm]

Also if he starts making too numerous of mistakes are people going to just be okay with it because of his "prestige?"

You a funny person. Too many lemons make you sour?

Sure, if he sucks, he sucks. I can agree to join you in your pile of lemons if Luck starts resembling Tim Couch. If he isn't showing clear signs of being a franchise QB by middle of his 2nd season, I fully expect to be steering that lemon cart myself.

Are you going to quit chewing on the lemons, though, if he proves to be decent, or are you forever going to be THAT guy, who always sulks and finds fault because he isn't Peyton Manning?

[Jay Kirk]

schwamm " I have to agree with you,i was not a Luck fan to start with, thought he was spoiled and had a attitude,but the more i read his comments,the more he reminds me of PM.I think the same work ethic and dedication to doing things right is there,Barring injury this kid will be a great qb.I was not happy PM is gone ,and i will always be a fan of his,but its time to move on and support what we have now.

[schwamm]

schwamm " I have to agree with you,i was not a Luck fan to start with, thought he was spoiled and had a attitude,but the more i read his comments,the more he reminds me of PM.I think the same work ethic and dedication to doing things right is there,Barring injury this kid will be a great qb.I was not happy PM is gone ,and i will always be a fan of his,but its time to move on and support what we have now.

That's cool. I wonder where your impression that Luck is spoiled or has an attitude came from, tho. I can't claim to have followed his career closely, but I've only seen him appear gracious and humble, like both times he finished runner up for the Heisman.

[braveheartcolt]

I dont think so. Some are being more realistic given how the defenses that start out faster in any normal year, even with vet QBs, took almost half a season to catch up with their schemes last year. That explained the offensive anamolies across the league. That is why most are realistic with Cam Newton's performance being more of an aberration since those pass friendly rules of the league have been in place for about a few years now but no rookie came close to Cam Newton's numbers, or even Peyton's numbers. Heck, I doubt any QB comes close to Marino's numbers, let alone Brees' yardage numbers, we wont see any 5000 yard passer this year unlike both Brees and Stafford last year, the odds on that happening again are pretty low too.

Most of us are playing the safe side of the odds on that. But you choose to taint it with your own bias about other folks' bias, knock yourself out. No one can prevent you from doing that.

If Luck beats the odds by exceeding Peyton's or Cam's numbers, most of us will be happy because Luck can never be Peyton, he can only be Andrew Luck and write his own legacy. That is what most of us are looking forward to, Luck's legacy.

My 'negative' comments have nothing to do with the Rookie stats. It's the little non direct digs at Irsay for letting Peyton go I was referring to. I have no bias on what people think about Luck's first year. It's all a lottery actually, at this stage....

[Fx Stryker]

You a funny person. Too many lemons make you sour?

Sure, if he sucks, he sucks. I can agree to join you in your pile of lemons if Luck starts resembling Tim Couch. If he isn't showing clear signs of being a franchise QB by middle of his 2nd season, I fully expect to be steering that lemon cart myself.

Are you going to quit chewing on the lemons, though, if he proves to be decent, or are you forever going to be THAT guy, who always sulks and finds fault because he isn't Peyton Manning?

I didn't mean it that way. I'm ready for this season, and I want to see what he's got. I just hope they don't hold on too long if he isn't showing signs like it's needed to be. Now I hope we don't have to question if he is hurting or helping the team. I hope it's fantastic play from the start.

[mystrymaster]

Trading the first overall pick would have given us more draft picks and we would have kept Peyton. So by keeping it we lost all of those. That is what he means.

Oh so basically like losing that last game of the season cost us all the draft picks the rams got, I see, I just didn't know we were playing the whatif game ;)

[schwamm]

I didn't mean it that way. I'm ready for this season, and I want to see what he's got. I just hope they don't hold on too long if he isn't showing signs like it's needed to be. Now I hope we don't have to question if he is hurting or helping the team. I hope it's fantastic play from the start.

I hope it's great from the start too, but it'll most likely take a little while for this young QB and young team to fit the pieces together. I'm excited to see how it all plays out, and hope fans will be patient.

[JoKeR]

I'm sure he will worry just about winning and letting the stats follow. I would prefer he throws more TDs then Ints in his rookie year though and I think he will.

[Fx Stryker]

Oh so basically like losing that last game of the season cost us all the draft picks the rams got, I see, I just didn't know we were playing the whatif game ;)

Losing the last game gave us the #1 pick. Not trading lost everything else. It's not a what if. It's what happened.

[Rblake]

3500 yds, 20TDs 16 INT's

[mystrymaster]

Losing the last game gave us the #1 pick. Not trading lost everything else. It's not a what if. It's what happened.

Not trading it got us Andrew Luck, it didn't lose us anything.

[JoKeR]

"I just wanna feel like a winner"- Jeff Fischer

[Fx Stryker]

Not trading it got us Andrew Luck, it didn't lose us anything.

That's to be seen if it was a win or lose.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Not trading it got us Andrew Luck, it didn't lose us anything.

That is one way to look at it.

That proverbial coin has many sides.

[FireJimCaldwell]

"I just wanna feel like a winner"- Jeff Fischer

Imagine Fisher's expression/response if Manning had signed in Arizona.

[mystrymaster]

That's to be seen if it was a win or lose.

That is one way to look at it.

That proverbial coin has many sides.

Losing something implies that you actually had it to begin with.