Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

There was stuff that happened after the game Sunday that makes it look like that might be his last game as a colt.

It might be his last game as a Colt.   But that doesn’t mean he’s retiring.   I think he’s still got years left on a big contract.  The Colts might trade or cut him, but there are 31 other teams that might be interested. 

[csmopar]

1 hour ago, BeanDiasucci said:

That seems consistent with some of the negatives in Levis scouting reports. https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/01/2023-nfl-draft-scouting-report-will-levis-qb-kentucky/

 

Negatives:

Will be 24 years old as a rookie. At least 23% of his throws came behind the line of scrimmage in each of the past two seasons. Had just three games over 230 yards this past season under Rich Scangarello, none inside the conference (one in the SEC in 2021). Completed just one of 12 deep throws down the right side of the field this past year.

Decision-making and feel for what defenses are doing is a work is a progress. Doesn’t always transfer weight effectively into his throws, leading to accuracy issues. Has a tendency to underthrow passes off his back foot despite his superior arm strength. Efficiency plummets when under pressure, completing fewer than half of his throws over the past two years. Doesn’t seem to sense backside pressure very well. His physical running style causes him to take a relatively high amount of punishment.

Summary:

A player whose high-level physical and mental attributes will likely earn him a spot among the first 10 or so picks in this year’s class, although there are certainly some issues with weight transfer and accuracy. It’s fair to wonder why he didn’t dominate in conference play like you’d like to see from a top prospect. Has the ceiling of a high-end starter with a relatively high potential to bust, so risk tolerance among teams may lead to somewhat divergent grades. Would ideally be able to sit behind a veteran for at least part of his rookie season.

Projection: Round 1

BUST. 

28 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

There was stuff that happened after the game Sunday that makes it look like that might be his last game as a colt.

Please elaborate on what this “stuff that happened” was? Not saying you’re wrong, but I’d like to know what you’re basing this on

[NewColtsFan]

29 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Maybe he sees a rebuild coming and he doesn’t want to go through it.

Id believe that.   But that doesn’t mean he’d be retiring.   He could get traded, or he could get cut.   But he could still go play for another team. 

[BlackTiger]

1 hour ago, Nevbot said:

I cannot find anything on the internet anywhere that says what CJ Stroud is majoring in at school.  I was started to do some research, found that Levis was a finance major, Young was phyc....absolutely nothing on Stroud.

Does anyone know?

His major is - Human development and family Sciences

 

Its about working with kids to get them on the right track 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, csmopar said:

BUST. 

Please elaborate on what this “stuff that happened” was? Not saying you’re wrong, but I’d like to know what you’re basing this on

It wasn’t anything huge. A Lucas oil stadium employee mentioned Kelly was on the field a long time after the game. Also taking pictures with family ect. On the surface he said it might not seem abnormal but said last time he saw that with a player was when Doyle retired. I don’t think it’s that far fetched to think Kelly might retire even had I not heard that. He had been through a lot and hid play has gone down last couple of years.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[richard pallo]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Id believe that.   But that doesn’t mean he’d be retiring.   He could get traded, or he could get cut.   But he could still go play for another team. 

Very true.   I just suggested it as a possibility.  Don’t forget he and his wife have had to suffer from the loss of their child.  It could have taken a toll on him this year.  He plays a dangerous physical sport.  I could see him saying I’ve had it.  Maybe he gets traded who knows.  But I would not rule out retirement.  

[csmopar]

36 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

It wasn’t anything huge. A Lucas oil stadium employee mentioned Kelly was on the field a long time after the game. Also taking pictures with family ect. On the surface he said it might not seem abnormal but said last time he saw that with a player was when Doyle retired. I don’t think it’s that far fetched to think Kelly might retire even had I not heard that. He had been through a lot and hid play has gone down last couple of years.

Source for this is/was?

26 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

 

Please let them do something that stupid.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

You guys know what will be fun if colts do trade for the first pick we will probably know before the draft who they are taking. So as soon as the trade is made I am sure we will get good ideas because there is no reason to hide it.

[Hoosier Kriegs]

20 minutes ago, csmopar said:

Source for this is/was?

Please let them do something that stupid.

You think stroud is better than young?

[danlhart87]

Stroud has better accuracy and better protypical size

 

Young is better at everything else

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

You guys know what will be fun if colts do trade for the first pick we will probably know before the draft who they are taking. So as soon as the trade is made I am sure we will get good ideas because there is no reason to hide it.

I highly believe that if a trade is done it will be done before draft night

[csmopar]

2 minutes ago, iuswingman said:

You think stroud is better than young?

No. To me the big three are pretty similar. High potential but even higher bust risk. None  strike me as players with staying power. I don’t think any of them are worth the premium to move to number 1 via a trade. Taking them at 1-4, sure. But I just don’t feel the value is there for a trade up. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

Stroud has better accuracy and better protypical size

 

Young is better at everything else

I highly believe that if a trade is done it will be done before draft night

Yeah probably a couple weeks before. It will be fun if we know who they are taking before the draft if they trade to one.

[danlhart87]

No QB in this class is worth trading up to 1 but I would trade up to 3 and surrender a 4th to get somebody 

[csmopar]

9 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

You guys know what will be fun if colts do trade for the first pick we will probably know before the draft who they are taking. So as soon as the trade is made I am sure we will get good ideas because there is no reason to hide it.

Ehh nah. I think IF Chicago trades out, it’ll be on draft day or a couple days before. And I doubt it’ll give us any idea who they’re looking at

1 minute ago, danlhart87 said:

No QB in this class is worth trading up to 1 but I would trade up to 3 and surrender a 4th to get somebody 

Eh I doubt that gets it done either

[danlhart87]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Yeah probably a couple weeks before. It will be fun if we know who they are taking before the draft if they trade to one.

If we have to wait until draft night and are still at 4 it won't happen cause Ballard won't get into a trade battle with other teams. He will set a good offer late March or early April and if they say no he will move on.

[ad24rouse]

22 hours ago, coltsblue1844 said:

No he doesn't, and no we don't. 

 

You're right Trubisky had one good season. Levis doesn't even have that. His 2021 season (24 TD's, 13 INT's) was above average I suppose but that's hardly good.

[csmopar]

3 minutes ago, ad24rouse said:

 

You're right Trubisky had one good season. Levis doesn't even have that. His 2021 season (24 TD's, 13 INT's) was above average I suppose but that's hardly good.

The QBs in this draft are stupidly over hyped. 

6 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

If we have to wait until draft night and are still at 4 it won't happen cause Ballard won't get into a trade battle with other teams. He will set a good offer late March or early April and if they say no he will move on.

Depends on how badly he wants it or feels the pressure

 

honestly, I’d prefer he stay his status quo and be calculated with this

[Fluke_33]

14 minutes ago, csmopar said:

No. To me the big three are pretty similar. High potential but even higher bust risk. None  strike me as players with staying power. I don’t think any of them are worth the premium to move to number 1 via a trade. Taking them at 1-4, sure. But I just don’t feel the value is there for a trade up. 

I just looked at the trade chart and prior similar trades.  Wholly moley.   Moving up from 4 to 1 is costly.  Next years first and multiple other picks even two or more seconds 

[Moe]

15 minutes ago, csmopar said:

No. To me the big three are pretty similar. High potential but even higher bust risk. None  strike me as players with staying power. I don’t think any of them are worth the premium to move to number 1 via a trade. Taking them at 1-4, sure. But I just don’t feel the value is there for a trade up. 

So who should the Colts quarterback be this year?

[JColts72]

7 minutes ago, ad24rouse said:

 

You're right Trubisky had one good season. Levis doesn't even have that. His 2021 season (24 TD's, 13 INT's) was above average I suppose but that's hardly good.

49ers really duped the Bears about him to draft so high.

Just now, Moe said:

So who should the Colts quarterback be this year?

Young or Stroud.

[richard pallo]

1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

I just looked at the trade chart and prior similar trades.  Wholly moley.   Moving up from 4 to 1 is costly.  Next years first and multiple other picks even two or more seconds 

A player could also be substituted for a pick.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I just looked at the trade chart and prior similar trades.  Wholly moley.   Moving up from 4 to 1 is costly.  Next years first and multiple other picks even two or more seconds 

I posted in this thread what past trades have been if you skim through it. It’s actually not bad.

[csmopar]

4 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I just looked at the trade chart and prior similar trades.  Wholly moley.   Moving up from 4 to 1 is costly.  Next years first and multiple other picks even two or more seconds 

Most likely you’re looking at 2-3 years worth of 1s

2 minutes ago, Moe said:

So who should the Colts quarterback be this year?

I honestly don’t have an answer. I don’t like any QBs in this draft. I’ll probably be proven wrong but I can’t help but feel this is 2013 all over again.

 

 

that said, I think they have to try and catch lightning in a bottle. So I’m fine with him taking a swing at any of the QBs on the board at 4. I just don’t want them to add to the already high risk by betting the next two or three years worth of picks to move up to get their choice and of any of them.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 1/8/2023 at 6:44 PM, #12. said:

 

I would say the Bears pick is definitely up for sale.  Whether they get what they are looking for or not is a different story.

Honestly I don't think the Bears wanted the  number 1 pick. I really don't see anyone wanting to move up  to number 1. I think the sweet spot is 

around 4 or so.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

16 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

If we have to wait until draft night and are still at 4 it won't happen cause Ballard won't get into a trade battle with other teams. He will set a good offer late March or early April and if they say no he will move on.

If bears don’t trade before the draft they are probably staying at 1. Those kind of trades draft day are rare.  That very well could happen because  bears don’t want to trade down too far and colts might be happy with the QB they get at 4. 

[csmopar]

4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I posted in this thread what past trades have been if you skim through it. It’s actually not bad.

Bad enough to swing and miss, even worse to take multiple swings at the same pitch and miss and set the team back a decade

[csmopar]

2 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Honestly I don't think the Bears wanted the  number 1 pick. I really don't see anyone wanting to move up  to number 1. I think the sweet spot is 

around 4 or so.

Houston wanted it bad. Their owner even said so when firing Lovie. So if anyone were to trade, it’s Houston.  And they have the draft capital THIS draft to do it

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

People that don’t want to trade up think only a luck or a manning are worth trading up for. That’s just not the case. If a QB can help your team win SB they are worth trading up for.

[ChuggaBeer]

34 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

You guys know what will be fun if colts do trade for the first pick we will probably know before the draft who they are taking. So as soon as the trade is made I am sure we will get good ideas because there is no reason to hide it.

Why would the Bears not wait and get the best deal possible?     Your thinking always benefits the Colts with no thought of the other team.    The Bear wil do what's best for the Bears not an old buddy 

 

23 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

If we have to wait until draft night and are still at 4 it won't happen cause Ballard won't get into a trade battle with other teams. He will set a good offer late March or early April and if they say no he will move on.

This is why the Bears should wait and get the best deal.    They don't owe the Colts any favor of this magnitude 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Houston doesn’t need to trade if they have good intel on who the 1st will be. But bears could get double picks by trading down twice.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, ChuggaBeer said:

Why would the Bears not wait and get the best deal possible?     Your thinking always benefits the Colts with no thought of the other team.    The Bear wil do what's best for the Bears not an old buddy 

 

This is why the Bears should wait and get the best deal.    They don't owe the Colts any favor of this magnitude 

That isn’t what I said at all.  These kind of trades are almost always done prior to draft day.  That doesn’t mean bears didn’t wait to get best offer.  They have 3 months to find the best deal.

[ChuggaBeer]

6 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

If bears don’t trade before the draft they are probably staying at 1. Those kind of trades draft day are rare.  That very well could happen because  bears don’t want to trade down too far and colts might be happy with the QB they get at 4. 

Why would you say that?   You don't think the offers are still on the table when the draft starts?   They are probably looking at all their options.   They have no reason to rush 

[csmopar]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

People that don’t want to trade up think only a luck or a manning are worth trading up for. That’s just not the case. If a QB can help your team win SB they are worth trading up for.

Not true. I’ve never said that. But the ROI has to be clear and present. I don’t see that in this group. Just my opinion on it. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, ChuggaBeer said:

Why would you say that?   You don't think the offers are still on the table when the draft starts?   They are probably looking at all their options.   They have no reason to rush 

They have 3 months to work deal. Just look at the history when these kind of trades within the top 5 happen. I aM sure there is a exception but it’s rare.

[csmopar]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

That isn’t what I said at all.  These kind of trades are almost always done prior to draft day.  That doesn’t mean bears didn’t wait to get best offer. 

Not true. Most of the trades are draft day trades 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Just now, csmopar said:

Not true. Most of the trades are draft day trades 

I was talking about QB trades in the top 5. Not everyday draft trades. Typically when a team has traded up like colts could for a QB it’s done before the draft. It also benefits the team trading up to get it done.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I actually posted a tweet about teams who have traded up into the top 5 for a QB and the dates it was done. Let me see if I can find it.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

 

[ChuggaBeer]

3 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I was talking about QB trades in the top 5. Not everyday draft trades. Typically when a team has traded up like colts could for a QB it’s done before the draft. It also benefits the team trading up to get it done.

We are not talking about the top 5.    Yes that happens because Team 5 is worried the trading team will possibly work out a deal to go to 4 or that another team might jump over team 4 and be in position to take the player the 1st team was looking at. 

 

The Bears have no reason to take any deals before draft day.   There is nothing I can think of that would benefit Chicago by trading early.    

 

Do you have a reason they would want to?