2022 Stitches' Colts Mock Off-season (ver. 1.0)

[stitches]

The combine is coming fast and I decided to do my regular Colts mock off-season to take my mind off things going on in the region :\ 

 

I'm using Overthecap's Colts page for salary numbers. I'm using Overthecap's Colts free agency page for our own free agents.

 

I will be using spotrac's free agency tracker to find other teams' free agents and if there is market value figure listed, I will try to be close to it, unless I deem it unreasonable for one reason or another. 

 

For the draft I will be using The PFF's Mock Draft simulator. I will run it with their predictive board, but I will try to take players based on how I feel about the players without trying to cheat the system(for example if a player I have rated as a late first-early second is there on the board at 47 and is BPA, but is ranked 88 on their board I will NOT pass on him because I know I can draft him in later rounds, I would consider this cheating the system because I have information that in the real world GMs don't really have). 

 

This version of my mock will be what I want to happen with some influence about what Ballard usually like in certain positions(lenght at CB , LB, OT). I will leave the what I think Ballard would actually do for another mock after the Combine. 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $35,85M

 

Trade: Trade Wentz to Washington Commanders for no. 75 pick. We will take on 10M of his salary and leave the rest for Washington to cover. Savings - 18.3M

 

Restructure: Restructure Braden Smith's contract to free up 5.5M capspace. 

 

Salary cap space after trades and restructures: $59.65M

 

 

Own Free Agents:

 

Unrestricted FAs

Eric Fisher - 1 year, 10M - hope a year further removed from his injury he will be better. Give him a prove it deal. And if he doesn't just move on from him next year. 

T.Y. Hilton - retired? 

Mark Glowinski - let go

Xavier Rhodes - let go

Mo Alie-Cox - re-sign 2 years 6M(3M guaranteed first year)

Zach Pascal - 1 year , 2M guaranteed, I personally wouldn't but Ballard was way too complementary of him to let him go.

Al-Quadin Muhammad 1 year, 3M guaranteed

Sam Tevi - let go

Isaac RochellI - let go

George Odum 1 year, 2M guaranteed

T.J. Carrie - let go

Marlon Mack - let go

Kemoko Turay - 1 year, 2M guaranteed

Julie'n Davenport - let go

Chris Reed - 2 years 5M(2.5M guaranteed first year)

Tyquan Lewis - 1 year, 2M

Andrew Sendejo - 1 year, 2M

Jahleel Addae - let go

Antwaun Woods - let go

Michael Badgley - 1 year 2M

Matt Pryor - 1 year, 2M

Matthew Adams - let go

Zaire Franklin - 1 year, 2M

 

 

Restricted FAs

Taylor Stallworth - 1 year, 1M dollar contract 

Ashton Dulin - there are reports that we will put a 2nd round tender on him - 3.9M

 

 

Exclusive Rights FAs

Nick Nelson - let go

Quartney Davis - let go

Robert Windsor - 660K

Skai Moore - 660K

---Total Spent on Own FAs: $40.7 ||| Remaining Cap Space: $18.95M

 

Retirement:

-Jack Doyle - saves us 6.2M

 

---Savings from Doyle retirement: $6.2M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $25.15M

 

Other Teams' FAs:

- Michael Gallup, WR 4 years, 40M(23M guaranteed, 10M guaranteed year 1) - one of the underrated receivers in the league. Very versatile, can line up anywhere on the field, very good against press man with his route running and good hands. Will be good complement to Michael Pittman 

- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 2 years, 6M(3M guaranteed year 1) - because of abundance of talent at EDGE for the Rams he was a just a rotational pass-rusher for the new SB champions, but he did show good play when he was given the chance to play. I'm taking a flyer on him here and hope he can be a solid second draft guy for us. 

- Casey Hayward Jr - 1 year 5.5M - he's been pretty much tied to Gus Bradley over the last 5 years. He had a good bounce back year with the Riaders after a poor 2020. He will be a good vet presence for us. One of the better zone corners in recent years. 

- Marcus Mariota - 1 year 5.5M - He's going to be our bridge QB until our franchise of the future is ready to play. In reality, I don't mind any of numerous QBs here - Mariota, Trubisky, Winston, etc. But for the purposes of this mock I'm picking Mariota. 

 

Unfortunately, that's it... we don't have enough money to make more splash without restructuring more deals and I would rather us not do it. Q will play on his 5th year option or get a contract that doesn't affect this year's cap. 

 

---Total Spent on Other teams' FAs: $24.0M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $1.15M

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Draft

 

(trade)

- Colts trade #47, #80 and future 2nd to the Saints for pick no. 18.

 

Round 1, Pick 18 - The Colts select Malik Willis, QB, Liberty. This is the QB in the draft who IMO is different than all the others - he's the only one that has elite traits that are likely to translate to the league - one of the most dynamic and athletic QBs to enter the draft in recent years and at the same time the QB with the strongest arm in the draft class, he's also the best QB throwing outside the numbers in the class. He can playmake both with his running ability and by extending plays with his feet and making throws on the move. My vision for him would be to be used(at least in the beginning) in a similar fashion to how the Ravens use Lamar Jackson, but with the added benefit that we would have a legitimate beast of a RB next to him. This type of use of raw but athletic QBs as integral part of the run game has proven to be very successful in recent years - Lamar, Josh Allen, Hurts are all examples of QBs who were not ready to run a conventional NFL offense but their teams were successful with them from the very beginning thanks to the incredible pressure a running QB can put on a defense. The big caveat here of course is - he probably won't be ready to play right away. He will need significant work on his footwork, as well as overall command of the offense... 

 

Round 3, pick 75 - Sean Rhyan, OT, UCLA - One of the better LT projects in the draft. Has good length and is light on his feet. Displays some nastiness and good finishing when run blocking. Needs more work with his hand placement in pass pro. Possible future starter at the position. 

 

Round 4, pick 118 - Greg Dulcich, TE,  UCLA - second UCLA player in the draft - one of the better pass-catching options at the position. Has good speed and hands and great playmaking ability. Not the best of run blockers, but IMO he can be a difference maker in the passing game. 

 

Round 5, pick 157 - Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis - one of the speedsters of the draft. No idea if he will really fall this far in the real draft but if he did it's a no brainer pick. He completes our WR corps with some much needed speed and gadget play option. Can he be what Parris Campbell was supposed to be? 

 

Round 5, pick 174(compensatory) - Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA - another player I can't believe will fall to the 5th. He had a great Senior Bowl and there are some reports that Ballard was following him closely in drills. He is one of the longest corners in the draft. Good fit for Gus Bradley's scheme. 

 

Round 6, pick 215 - Zamir White, RB, Georgia - potential replacement for Mack and depth/rotational piece for us. 

 

 

Round 7, pick 233 Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama - he had pretty good yards per reception on really small sample and good run blocking grade. I'd take a shot on him to see if he can push the other TEs for a roster spot. 

 

Round 7, pick 236 Jason Poe, OG, Mercer - depth/competition for the interior of the line. 

 

Previously I've counted the money for the rookies signing toward the cap but in reality those 8-9 players that will get contracts will replace other players with similar value futures contract that are accounted for in the top 51 number to begin with. We have over 30 players with salary number of around or under 1M and the dead money on huge majority of them is minuscule. 

 

 

Depth chart:

 

Offense:
QB: Marcus Mariota, Malik Willis, Sam Ehlinger, James Morgan
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines,  Zamir White, Deon Jackson 
WR1: Michael Pittman Jr, Ashton Dulin, Mike Strachan
WR2:  Michael Gallup, Dezmond Patmon, Zach Pascal
Slot: Parris Campbell, Calvin Austin III, DeMichael Harris, Keke Coutee
TE1: Kylen Granson, Greg Dulcich, Nikola Kalinic, Eli Wolf,
TE2: Mo Alie-Cox, Cameron Latu, Farrod Green, Michael Jacobson
LT: Eric Fisher, Sean Rhyan, Carter O'Donnell, Jordan Murray, 

LG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries
OC: Ryan Kelly, Danny Pinter
RG: Chris Reed, Jason Poe
RT: Braden Smith, Matt Pryor, Shon Coleman

Deffense:
LDE: Dayo Odeyingbo, Al-Quadin Muhammad
DT: Grover Stewart, Taylor Stallworth, Kameron Cline, Chris Williams
3T:  DeForest Buckner, Tyquan Lewis, R.J. McIntosh, Rob Windsor
RDE: Kwity Paye, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu
WILL: Darius Leonard, E.J. Speed, Skai Moore
MIKE: Bobby Okereke, Skai Moore, Malik Jefferson
SAM: Zaire Franklin, Jordan Glasgow
SS: Khari Willis, Andrew Sendejo, 
FS: Julian Blackmon, George Odum
RCB: Casey Hayward Jr, Isaiah Rodgers, Will Redmond
LCB: Rock Ya-Sin,  Marvell Tell III, Tariq Woolen, Chris Wilcox
Slot: Kenny Moore II, Anthony Chesley, Alexander Myres

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Michael Badgley, Rodrigo Blankenship, Jake Verity

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in blue are new FAs/trade acquisitions

 

Final thoughts:

- this team will likely take a step back next year(or be at about the same level), but I'm willing to do that. We need a long-term QB and this mock possibly accomplishes that. Mariota is there to start, but the moment I feel like Willis is ready and can execute the offense, I'm putitng him in. The good thing is... both have some running ability so maybe you can run similar offense with both. 

- I really like a potential Pittman Jr-Gallup combo of WRs. And hopefully one of the gadget guys pans out and completes the group.

- TE is a bit light on ready-to-play options. The Colts have been stacking on future contract TEs... IMO it's possible they let them all compete for the 2 spots available. Dulcich will be interesting as a receiving weapon too. If I had to redo this one, I might have to go for a vet TE in FA... but I just couldn't address everything we need to address with limited resources. 

- wanted to do more at safety too... but again... not enough resources and didn't want to restructure too many contracts. 

- I kind of like the CBs here... Rock took step forward, Rodgers did too. Casey Hayward might be a stabilizing force in that group too. 

- kicking competition? We have 3 kickers under contract right now. 

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. Cheers everybody 

 

(Disclaimer: I used the blueprint from my my prevous years' mocks so it's possible there are some mistakes/leftovers from it that I didn't catch. Please don't hesitate to point out any glaring errors or things you think are overly unrealistic.)

[danlhart87]

It would most likely cost 23 1 to trade up to 18

Why would NO trade back when they need QB too

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2 minutes ago, danlhart87 said:

It would most likely cost 23 1 to trade up to 18

Why would NO trade back when they need QB too

Possible yeah... you can exchange the 2nd for 1st in that case. But in the mock machine it went through like this so... 

 

 

[tvturner]

I agree with your re-signings

I'd love Gallup over here and Hayward seems destined to be a Colt

 

I'm not a fan of Malik Willis, as well as the rest of the QB class

 

 

[Superman]

40 minutes ago, stitches said:

Mo Alie-Cox - re-sign 2 years 6M(3M guaranteed first year)

Zach Pascal - 1 year , 2M guaranteed, I personally wouldn't but Ballard was way too complementary of him to let him go.

Al-Quadin Muhammad 1 year, 3M guaranteed

 

This is obviously not critical to your mock, but this is a slight pay cut for these three players, and I think you're coming in low on a lot of these re-signings. You also need to make cap space for Malik Willis in your top 51. I also think the Fisher offer is a little high, so maybe it's a wash.

 

I'm not crazy about big money to Gallup coming off an ACL, and he's kind of uninspiring in the first place, IMO. Probably means he'll be a Colt in 2022...

 

Now, to the heart of the mock, getting rid of Wentz and drafting Willis. (I don't think we'd have to eat part of the Wentz contract in a trade that only brings back a third; I guess we'll see what happens.) All that matters is whether Willis can be a good starter, hopefully by 2023, maybe by the end of his first year like Lamar Jackson. I personally don't see it with him. I'll watch more, and I'm interested in his Combine workout, but I think he's the standout athlete in a bland QB class. I don't see Josh Allen, not even Lamar Jackson (and I think Lamar's future is in doubt, personally; he still needs to show some improvement in the areas of advanced QBing). Maybe Jalen Hurts, and I never thought much of him as a pro prospect, and still don't. Just not impressed, but that's based on limited viewing, I could be wrong.

 

Ultimately, it feels like a throwaway year kind of roster, 7 win potential, in which case you could throw away all the veteran 1 year contracts -- Hayward, Pascal, Fisher, Sendejo -- and just keep the cap space and groom youngers guys. That's an extra $10m right there.

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4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

This is obviously not critical to your mock, but this is a slight pay cut for these three players, and I think you're coming in low on a lot of these re-signings. You also need to make cap space for Malik Willis in your top 51. I also think the Fisher offer is a little high, so maybe it's a wash.

 

I'm not crazy about big money to Gallup coming off an ACL, and he's kind of uninspiring in the first place, IMO. Probably means he'll be a Colt in 2022...

 

Now, to the heart of the mock, getting rid of Wentz and drafting Willis. (I don't think we'd have to eat part of the Wentz contract in a trade that only brings back a third; I guess we'll see what happens.) All that matters is whether Willis can be a good starter, hopefully by 2023, maybe by the end of his first year like Lamar Jackson. I personally don't see it with him. I'll watch more, and I'm interested in his Combine workout, but I think he's the standout athlete in a bland QB class. I don't see Josh Allen, not even Lamar Jackson (and I think Lamar's future is in doubt, personally; he still needs to show some improvement in the areas of advanced QBing). Maybe Jalen Hurts, and I never thought much of him as a pro prospect, and still don't. Just not impressed, but that's based on limited viewing, I could be wrong.

 

Ultimately, it feels like a throwaway year kind of roster, 7 win potential, in which case you could throw away all the veteran 1 year contracts -- Hayward, Pascal, Fisher, Sendejo -- and just keep the cap space and groom youngers guys. That's an extra $10m right there.

Thanks for the feedback 

 

Yeah, I was thinking about a version of this that postpones drafting a QB until next year. In reality, not much would change in my approach if we are going with a QB next year rather than this year simply because the overall approach would be "getting QB for the future" and not aiming at being super competitive this year. In essence what I would change is - keep the future picks, draft someone with our 2nd round pick this year or try to get future assets with that pick? And if we don't go for some of those marginal signings, the extra 10M would be nice and possibly even make us a bit less competitive and give us a better draft spot. Overall I don't hate it as an option. 

[Mr. Too Proud]

It's a refreshing take on the "all in" approach.

[MikeCurtis]

Thanks for sharing

 

I like

 

Gallup for this team. He could be WR1 right away

 

Getting a QB that possibly could be the future QB

 

I think running with Fisher for one year at LT, seems like a smart move

 

I like having Sean Rhyan to develop for LT...

 

Greg D from UCLA, could start this year at TE

 

Though I have reservations about Marriota, he might be as good as Carson this year...... so why not

 

 

 

Thoughts

 

I wonder what the Saints are going to do at QB this year......  I dont think that they can keep Winston, so I BELIEVE that THEY need a QB on a rookie deal, while they bleed down their cap problem. If Willis is on the board... they may not be quick to move to us... but it COULD happen

 

Pryor proved this year that he could be a starting RT..... He did well and I think that there will be a team that signs him to be a starter.  I would think if he will get 4-5M per year at a minimum

 

I personally do not like our FS room.  We have two decent SS, and that costs us in pass coverage......  I think we desperately need an upgrade... a FS that gets 5-6 Ints per year, and MANY more Pass defense on the long ball (He had 2 ints all last year, and 0 over 5 1/2 games this year)

 

AQM had 6 sacks. He will probably need a bit more coin to keep.... like $5M

There are some folks that think he will head to Chicago

 

Okoronkwo had 2 sacks for the Rams all year.  He had 1.5 the previous year.....  I REALLY think we need some instant impact DEs....If we cant get pressure we are hosed

 

IMHO...... FA DE is the biggest hole that we have on the team (dependant on what we do with Carson)

 

Thanks for posting.... I always enjoy reading these

[BProland85]

Not a fan of your offseason for the Colts. WR and TE are still question marks as I’m not a believer that Gallup does much of anything in this offense, and we need better then what you provided at TE. And for QB I’d rather get the QB of the future in the 2023 draft which is much better. 

[Defjamz26]

My only issues are:

 

Why Mariota over Trubisky?

 

Why bring MAC back but then draft two TEs?

 

 

[DaColts85]

This would create a subpar roster that would get Ballard and Reich fired. I hope we don’t role with Mariota. Also, no QB in this draft has true pro potential imo. Willis is becoming overhyped already in these boards. 

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4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

My only issues are:

 

Why Mariota over Trubisky?

Because Mariota has been better QB than Trubisky in my opinion, but whoever we pick I don't mind it. I would be good with Trubisky too... as long as we know he's a bridge. To me it's a minor concern who the bridge will be. Ideally the rookie will be ready right away and Mariota/Trubisky/whoever won't see the field at all. 

 

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Why bring MAC back but then draft two TEs?

 

 

Because MAC is our only TE on the roster who has shown he can play in the league. Why draft two TEs? Because we have 2 open spots for TEs on the roster. Granson didn't show much in his rookie year so I'm giving him competition and a chance to prove himself. Also... it's not like I'm spending super high picks - it's a 4th and 7th rounder TEs. I personally see the problem with that TE group more in the other direction - there is very little proven quality on the roster, rather than having too many TEs. 

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17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thanks for sharing

 

I like

 

Gallup for this team. He could be WR1 right away

 

Getting a QB that possibly could be the future QB

 

I think running with Fisher for one year at LT, seems like a smart move

 

I like having Sean Rhyan to develop for LT...

 

Greg D from UCLA, could start this year at TE

 

Though I have reservations about Marriota, he might be as good as Carson this year...... so why not

 

First, thanks for the feedback. Now on some of your thoughts... 

 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

Thoughts

 

I wonder what the Saints are going to do at QB this year......  I dont think that they can keep Winston, so I BELIEVE that THEY need a QB on a rookie deal, while they bleed down their cap problem. If Willis is on the board... they may not be quick to move to us... but it COULD happen

Very possible. In a future mock I might find another target for trade up(if I do trade up)

 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

 

Pryor proved this year that he could be a starting RT..... He did well and I think that there will be a team that signs him to be a starter.  I would think if he will get 4-5M per year at a minimum

I am not so sure. Teams rarely draw conclusions based on half a season of good play. I guess we will see what happens. 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

I personally do not like our FS room.  We have two decent SS, and that costs us in pass coverage......  I think we desperately need an upgrade... a FS that gets 5-6 Ints per year, and MANY more Pass defense on the long ball (He had 2 ints all last year, and 0 over 5 1/2 games this year)

Neither do I. But there just aren't enough picks and enough money to address everything. 

 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

AQM had 6 sacks. He will probably need a bit more coin to keep.... like $5M

There are some folks that think he will head to Chicago

Possible. I was looking for market projections for him and I couldn't find one, but he was ranked lower than players people project will get about 2-3M a year. 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Okoronkwo had 2 sacks for the Rams all year.  He had 1.5 the previous year.....  I REALLY think we need some instant impact DEs....If we cant get pressure we are hosed

No money for more impact players. We will hope Paye and Dayo take steps forward. 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

IMHO...... FA DE is the biggest hole that we have on the team (dependant on what we do with Carson)

There are several big needs. IMO we cannot go into the season without something resembling a starting QB, even if everybody knows he will be bridge. Same with LT. Maybe I could have left CB unaddressed in favor of more spending at DE, but I am not sure just how much better of a player we can get for 9M than for 3. I think we need WRs, both in FA and in the draft, especially if Hilton retires. 

17 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Thanks for posting.... I always enjoy reading these

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1 hour ago, DaColts85 said:

This would create a subpar roster that would get Ballard and Reich fired. I hope we don’t role with Mariota. Also, no QB in this draft has true pro potential imo. Willis is becoming overhyped already in these boards. 

Yeah... I won't pretend like this is a contending roster. It very likely takes a step back, but that was not the goal of this mock. It was more aimed for the future...

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Because Mariota has been better QB than Trubisky in my opinion, but whoever we pick I don't mind it. I would be good with Trubisky too... as long as we know he's a bridge. To me it's a minor concern who the bridge will be. Ideally the rookie will be ready right away and Mariota/Trubisky/whoever won't see the field at all. 

 

 

 

Because MAC is our only TE on the roster who has shown he can play in the league. Why draft two TEs? Because we have 2 open spots for TEs on the roster. Granson didn't show much in his rookie year so I'm giving him competition and a chance to prove himself. Also... it's not like I'm spending super high picks - it's a 4th and 7th rounder TEs. I personally see the problem with that TE group more in the other direction - there is very little proven quality on the roster, rather than having too many TEs. 

I mean TE isn’t necessarily a hard position to play. I’ve said that I think MAC and Doyle’s production are easily replaceable. I just think if you’re going to draft two TE’s (which I’m a fan of) then you might as well save the cap space and let MAC walk. You’d have Granson and the two rookies. They should be able to give you 321 passing yards and 4 TDs easily. 

[DaColts85]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

Yeah... I won't pretend like this is a contending roster. It very likely takes a step back, but that was not the goal of this mock. It was more aimed for the future...

I understand what you mean. I will just say that realistically CB and FR have a heated seat and Ballard especially is not going to do anything like this. 

[ColtJax]

Marcus Mariota - 1 year 5.5M  No, he's making 10 million now as a back up, he'll want 15 at least. Gallup will want, and get more. A lot of teams are looking at him. I'd make a 1 year "prove it" push for Winston out of all of them. He has game breaking talent, if he can stop trying to hit the homerun on every play he'd be great.

[NewColtsFan]

On 2/25/2022 at 12:28 PM, Defjamz26 said:

I mean TE isn’t necessarily a hard position to play. I’ve said that I think MAC and Doyle’s production are easily replaceable. I just think if you’re going to draft two TE’s (which I’m a fan of) then you might as well save the cap space and let MAC walk. You’d have Granson and the two rookies. They should be able to give you 321 passing yards and 4 TDs easily. 

I think your first sentence is 100 percent false.  
 

Ideally, you want someone who can block like a lineman but who can also catch like a receiver.  Do you see a lot of people who can do that?  
 

I also completely HATE the idea of a TE room with Granson and two rookies.  Talk about delayed gratification?!?   Our room would be the worst in the NFL.    Sorry, just can’t support this view. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, ColtJax said:

Marcus Mariota - 1 year 5.5M  No, he's making 10 million now as a back up, he'll want 15 at least. Gallup will want, and get more. A lot of teams are looking at him. I'd make a 1 year "prove it" push for Winston out of all of them. He has game breaking talent, if he can stop trying to hit the homerun on every play he'd be great.

Not sure where you got this info, but Spotrac.com has his 2021 deal at $3.5m.    Mariotta could’ve made much more with incentives, but those didn’t kick in because he didn’t play much.  Carr did.  
 

Spotrac is free.  Mostly Non-premium.  You can see for yourself if you like.   Easy to use and navigate. 

[DougDew]

I guess you're rolling with Nelson on the 5th year?

 

If I'm signing Mariota or Trubisky, they are young enough to still have some hope that they can be a solid starter...they both had some bad situations after entering the NFL.  So I would not sign them and then spend three good draft picks to take Malik Willis.  I would evaluate the QB this coming season with the idea that I would probably be drafting a rookie QB in the 2023 class.

 

Too much money for Fisher.  I'd sign Pryor to more money than you show, and draft a rookie with one of the picks you traded for Willis.  Rasheed Walker PSU, Abraham Lucas WSU, 

 

I like two TEs in the draft.  Ok to sign MAC for a year as the vet security blanket.

 

I like the slot WR, but looking at Skye Moore from Western (or is it Central?) Michigan over Austin, who is puny.

 

I don't know much about Gallup.  

 

I like the Casey Heyward signing.  But at only one year and his age, I'd look for a Corner to draft.

 

And we don't look at FS?

 

I think the Willis trade up is too costly with the holes we still have...and the cap he himself would take.

 

[stitches]

On 2/25/2022 at 10:28 PM, Defjamz26 said:

I mean TE isn’t necessarily a hard position to play. I’ve said that I think MAC and Doyle’s production are easily replaceable. I just think if you’re going to draft two TE’s (which I’m a fan of) then you might as well save the cap space and let MAC walk. You’d have Granson and the two rookies. They should be able to give you 321 passing yards and 4 TDs easily. 

I disagree with this. The pure passing production might be somewhat replaceable, but TEs do a lot more than just catch passes. A lot of our playbook becomes unusable if our TEs cannot do their job in pass pro and run blocking. While MAC never was able to take the next jump in his pass-catching production, he is very solid blocker and allows Reich to run his offense. I don't think Granson showed much of anything to consider him a long-term piece and relying on day 3 rookies to be productive IMO is not a recipe for success. That's why I said earlier that I would actually like us to do more than I actually did  in this mock when it comes to proven quantity at TE. 

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12 hours ago, DougDew said:

I guess you're rolling with Nelson on the 5th year?

 

If I'm signing Mariota or Trubisky, they are young enough to still have some hope that they can be a solid starter...they both had some bad situations after entering the NFL.  So I would not sign them and then spend three good draft picks to take Malik Willis.  I would evaluate the QB this coming season with the idea that I would probably be drafting a rookie QB in the 2023 class.

 

Too much money for Fisher.  I'd sign Pryor to more money than you show, and draft a rookie with one of the picks you traded for Willis.  Rasheed Walker PSU, Abraham Lucas WSU, 

 

I like two TEs in the draft.  Ok to sign MAC for a year as the vet security blanket.

 

I like the slot WR, but looking at Skye Moore from Western (or is it Central?) Michigan over Austin, who is puny.

 

I don't know much about Gallup.  

 

I like the Casey Heyward signing.  But at only one year and his age, I'd look for a Corner to draft.

 

And we don't look at FS?

 

I think the Willis trade up is too costly with the holes we still have...and the cap he himself would take.

 

To a large degree I agree with a lot of your points, but when I make one big move it affects the ability to make some other moves(in the case of this mock the big move is getting Malik Willis). In essence - we have way too many holes on the roster and not enough high end picks and money to address them. If I get FS or CB or TE higher I would have to not get a WR or OT or DE. We just don't have enough money and picks and can't address everything. Just try it for yourself if you don't believe me - it's really really hard to sign enough NFL level players throughout the roster and then fill all the holes. We have about 30 free agents on the roster. Now some are easy to pass on and let go, but others no so - you have to fill those spots at the end of the day. It was a huge pain in the * to make this thing work while trying to balance the talent on the roster. 

 

On Nelson - I could have done a signing of Nelson without putting any money on the current year, but yeah... my point was - he stays this year for whatever the 5th year option money is. 

 

On the QB - yeah, I don't mind any of the bridge options as long as we know perfectly well that they are bridge options. 

[DougDew]

10 hours ago, stitches said:

we have way too many holes on the roster and not enough high end picks and money to address them. If I get FS or CB or TE higher I would have to not get a WR or OT or DE. We just don't have enough money and picks and can't address everything.

Yes.  The way that I think of the draft, you assign different rounds to different levels of talent and for different positions.

 

For example, everybody knows that if you want a highly talented LT to start right away, you need a pretty high pick, and a OT that you can develop can be drafted in later rounds.  

 

So how do you assess the roster and what level of talent do you need where?

 

Take Corner.  Is RYS your #1 Corner.  If so, what round could you typically find a corner that is less talented than RYS...or..do you want two #1 corner's.  If RYS is your #1, you can wait until the 4th to draft a corner.  If RYS is no better than #2, then you see if there is a guy at pick 47 that you like.

 

Based upon the LT situation of Fisher and Pryor, I think 47 is the pick for LT .  If Rasheed Walker or Abraham Lucas is there, (who both grade out as second round picks) I'm taking the best one of the two, and still taking whomever is left even if a good corner is rated slightly higher.

 

Then there is the overall talent pool of a certain position.  If this is a deep TE draft, I want to draft two.  All of our TEs can be upgraded, so in a deep class, a guy that normally would require a 2nd round pick might be had at pick 80, and a normal 3rd rounder in the 5th round.  Long term, I've invested in high talent at a low price because of the oversupply and and freed up capital in the next two drafts to not have to take a TE.

 

Based upon our talent at the positions, I would apply the following positions to the appropriate draft slot. Rnd 2: LT     Rnd 3: #1TE,    Rnd 4: Slot,   Rnd 5: FS/Corner.    Rnd 6: #2 TE.     Rnd 7 BPA  Then look to see the value and availability of the college players.  I could see swapping #1 TE and Slot depending upon the talent pool. Then I'd be settling for drafting 2 MACs or 2 Doyles, but could get lucky with one of them having a high ceiling.  AKA Kittle.

 

It looks like FS and WR might be hard to get, so that's where I would address the FA money.  In that sense, I like the Gallup signing, I just don't know much about Gallup...and the ACL would probably steer me to somebody else, or Gallup on a one-year prove it deal.

[coltsfan40]

Great job when anyone takes time to this all respect too you sir. I like all picks from 3 on wi with a defensive end gem in their. And It will be Robinson I believe not Gallup. Qb won't be Wentz they get a trade Washington or Pittsburgh but they move up too get strong or Ridder in my humble opinion. 

[ChuggaBeer]

On 2/24/2022 at 5:46 PM, stitches said:

The combine is coming fast and I decided to do my regular Colts mock off-season to take my mind off things going on in the region :\ 

 

I'm using Overthecap's Colts page for salary numbers. I'm using Overthecap's Colts free agency page for our own free agents.

 

I will be using spotrac's free agency tracker to find other teams' free agents and if there is market value figure listed, I will try to be close to it, unless I deem it unreasonable for one reason or another. 

 

For the draft I will be using The PFF's Mock Draft simulator. I will run it with their predictive board, but I will try to take players based on how I feel about the players without trying to cheat the system(for example if a player I have rated as a late first-early second is there on the board at 47 and is BPA, but is ranked 88 on their board I will NOT pass on him because I know I can draft him in later rounds, I would consider this cheating the system because I have information that in the real world GMs don't really have). 

 

This version of my mock will be what I want to happen with some influence about what Ballard usually like in certain positions(lenght at CB , LB, OT). I will leave the what I think Ballard would actually do for another mock after the Combine. 

 

Starting Team Cap Space: $35,85M

 

Trade: Trade Wentz to Washington Commanders for no. 75 pick. We will take on 10M of his salary and leave the rest for Washington to cover. Savings - 18.3M

 

Restructure: Restructure Braden Smith's contract to free up 5.5M capspace. 

 

Salary cap space after trades and restructures: $59.65M

 

 

Own Free Agents:

 

Unrestricted FAs

Eric Fisher - 1 year, 10M - hope a year further removed from his injury he will be better. Give him a prove it deal. And if he doesn't just move on from him next year. 

T.Y. Hilton - retired? 

Mark Glowinski - let go

Xavier Rhodes - let go

Mo Alie-Cox - re-sign 2 years 6M(3M guaranteed first year)

Zach Pascal - 1 year , 2M guaranteed, I personally wouldn't but Ballard was way too complementary of him to let him go.

Al-Quadin Muhammad 1 year, 3M guaranteed

Sam Tevi - let go

Isaac RochellI - let go

George Odum 1 year, 2M guaranteed

T.J. Carrie - let go

Marlon Mack - let go

Kemoko Turay - 1 year, 2M guaranteed

Julie'n Davenport - let go

Chris Reed - 2 years 5M(2.5M guaranteed first year)

Tyquan Lewis - 1 year, 2M

Andrew Sendejo - 1 year, 2M

Jahleel Addae - let go

Antwaun Woods - let go

Michael Badgley - 1 year 2M

Matt Pryor - 1 year, 2M

Matthew Adams - let go

Zaire Franklin - 1 year, 2M

 

 

Restricted FAs

Taylor Stallworth - 1 year, 1M dollar contract 

Ashton Dulin - there are reports that we will put a 2nd round tender on him - 3.9M

 

 

Exclusive Rights FAs

Nick Nelson - let go

Quartney Davis - let go

Robert Windsor - 660K

Skai Moore - 660K

---Total Spent on Own FAs: $40.7 ||| Remaining Cap Space: $18.95M

 

Retirement:

-Jack Doyle - saves us 6.2M

 

---Savings from Doyle retirement: $6.2M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $25.15M

 

Other Teams' FAs:

- Michael Gallup, WR 4 years, 40M(23M guaranteed, 10M guaranteed year 1) - one of the underrated receivers in the league. Very versatile, can line up anywhere on the field, very good against press man with his route running and good hands. Will be good complement to Michael Pittman 

- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 2 years, 6M(3M guaranteed year 1) - because of abundance of talent at EDGE for the Rams he was a just a rotational pass-rusher for the new SB champions, but he did show good play when he was given the chance to play. I'm taking a flyer on him here and hope he can be a solid second draft guy for us. 

- Casey Hayward Jr - 1 year 5.5M - he's been pretty much tied to Gus Bradley over the last 5 years. He had a good bounce back year with the Riaders after a poor 2020. He will be a good vet presence for us. One of the better zone corners in recent years. 

- Marcus Mariota - 1 year 5.5M - He's going to be our bridge QB until our franchise of the future is ready to play. In reality, I don't mind any of numerous QBs here - Mariota, Trubisky, Winston, etc. But for the purposes of this mock I'm picking Mariota. 

 

Unfortunately, that's it... we don't have enough money to make more splash without restructuring more deals and I would rather us not do it. Q will play on his 5th year option or get a contract that doesn't affect this year's cap. 

 

---Total Spent on Other teams' FAs: $24.0M ||| Remaining Cap Space: $1.15M

 

And here comes the draft... 

 

Draft

 

(trade)

- Colts trade #47, #80 and future 2nd to the Saints for pick no. 18.

 

Round 1, Pick 18 - The Colts select Malik Willis, QB, Liberty. This is the QB in the draft who IMO is different than all the others - he's the only one that has elite traits that are likely to translate to the league - one of the most dynamic and athletic QBs to enter the draft in recent years and at the same time the QB with the strongest arm in the draft class, he's also the best QB throwing outside the numbers in the class. He can playmake both with his running ability and by extending plays with his feet and making throws on the move. My vision for him would be to be used(at least in the beginning) in a similar fashion to how the Ravens use Lamar Jackson, but with the added benefit that we would have a legitimate beast of a RB next to him. This type of use of raw but athletic QBs as integral part of the run game has proven to be very successful in recent years - Lamar, Josh Allen, Hurts are all examples of QBs who were not ready to run a conventional NFL offense but their teams were successful with them from the very beginning thanks to the incredible pressure a running QB can put on a defense. The big caveat here of course is - he probably won't be ready to play right away. He will need significant work on his footwork, as well as overall command of the offense... 

 

Round 3, pick 75 - Sean Rhyan, OT, UCLA - One of the better LT projects in the draft. Has good length and is light on his feet. Displays some nastiness and good finishing when run blocking. Needs more work with his hand placement in pass pro. Possible future starter at the position. 

 

Round 4, pick 118 - Greg Dulcich, TE,  UCLA - second UCLA player in the draft - one of the better pass-catching options at the position. Has good speed and hands and great playmaking ability. Not the best of run blockers, but IMO he can be a difference maker in the passing game. 

 

Round 5, pick 157 - Calvin Austin III, WR, Memphis - one of the speedsters of the draft. No idea if he will really fall this far in the real draft but if he did it's a no brainer pick. He completes our WR corps with some much needed speed and gadget play option. Can he be what Parris Campbell was supposed to be? 

 

Round 5, pick 174(compensatory) - Tariq Woolen, CB, UTSA - another player I can't believe will fall to the 5th. He had a great Senior Bowl and there are some reports that Ballard was following him closely in drills. He is one of the longest corners in the draft. Good fit for Gus Bradley's scheme. 

 

Round 6, pick 215 - Zamir White, RB, Georgia - potential replacement for Mack and depth/rotational piece for us. 

 

 

Round 7, pick 233 Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama - he had pretty good yards per reception on really small sample and good run blocking grade. I'd take a shot on him to see if he can push the other TEs for a roster spot. 

 

Round 7, pick 236 Jason Poe, OG, Mercer - depth/competition for the interior of the line. 

 

Previously I've counted the money for the rookies signing toward the cap but in reality those 8-9 players that will get contracts will replace other players with similar value futures contract that are accounted for in the top 51 number to begin with. We have over 30 players with salary number of around or under 1M and the dead money on huge majority of them is minuscule. 

 

 

Depth chart:

 

Offense:
QB: Marcus Mariota, Malik Willis, Sam Ehlinger, James Morgan
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines,  Zamir White, Deon Jackson 
WR1: Michael Pittman Jr, Ashton Dulin, Mike Strachan
WR2:  Michael Gallup, Dezmond Patmon, Zach Pascal
Slot: Parris Campbell, Calvin Austin III, DeMichael Harris, Keke Coutee
TE1: Kylen Granson, Greg Dulcich, Nikola Kalinic, Eli Wolf,
TE2: Mo Alie-Cox, Cameron Latu, Farrod Green, Michael Jacobson
LT: Eric Fisher, Sean Rhyan, Carter O'Donnell, Jordan Murray, 

LG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries
OC: Ryan Kelly, Danny Pinter
RG: Chris Reed, Jason Poe
RT: Braden Smith, Matt Pryor, Shon Coleman

Deffense:
LDE: Dayo Odeyingbo, Al-Quadin Muhammad
DT: Grover Stewart, Taylor Stallworth, Kameron Cline, Chris Williams
3T:  DeForest Buckner, Tyquan Lewis, R.J. McIntosh, Rob Windsor
RDE: Kwity Paye, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Kemoko Turay, Ben Banogu
WILL: Darius Leonard, E.J. Speed, Skai Moore
MIKE: Bobby Okereke, Skai Moore, Malik Jefferson
SAM: Zaire Franklin, Jordan Glasgow
SS: Khari Willis, Andrew Sendejo, 
FS: Julian Blackmon, George Odum
RCB: Casey Hayward Jr, Isaiah Rodgers, Will Redmond
LCB: Rock Ya-Sin,  Marvell Tell III, Tariq Woolen, Chris Wilcox
Slot: Kenny Moore II, Anthony Chesley, Alexander Myres

Special teams:
LS: Luke Rhodes
P: Rigoberto Sanchez
K: Michael Badgley, Rodrigo Blankenship, Jake Verity

 

*names in green are rookies

**names in blue are new FAs/trade acquisitions

 

Final thoughts:

- this team will likely take a step back next year(or be at about the same level), but I'm willing to do that. We need a long-term QB and this mock possibly accomplishes that. Mariota is there to start, but the moment I feel like Willis is ready and can execute the offense, I'm putitng him in. The good thing is... both have some running ability so maybe you can run similar offense with both. 

- I really like a potential Pittman Jr-Gallup combo of WRs. And hopefully one of the gadget guys pans out and completes the group.

- TE is a bit light on ready-to-play options. The Colts have been stacking on future contract TEs... IMO it's possible they let them all compete for the 2 spots available. Dulcich will be interesting as a receiving weapon too. If I had to redo this one, I might have to go for a vet TE in FA... but I just couldn't address everything we need to address with limited resources. 

- wanted to do more at safety too... but again... not enough resources and didn't want to restructure too many contracts. 

- I kind of like the CBs here... Rock took step forward, Rodgers did too. Casey Hayward might be a stabilizing force in that group too. 

- kicking competition? We have 3 kickers under contract right now. 

 

Any thoughts and critique are welcome. Cheers everybody 

 

(Disclaimer: I used the blueprint from my my prevous years' mocks so it's possible there are some mistakes/leftovers from it that I didn't catch. Please don't hesitate to point out any glaring errors or things you think are overly unrealistic.)

Curious.  You have only 1.15m before the draft.  Where is the money coming from to pay these drafted players?   Plus roster churn during the yr?

 

[stitches]

4 hours ago, ChuggaBeer said:

Curious.  You have only 1.15m before the draft.  Where is the money coming from to pay these drafted players?   Plus roster churn during the yr?

 

From cut players. Only top 53 (the ones left after cut down day) will ultimately be counted towards the salary cap. I include everything in that number(82 players if I'm not mistaken). For example , there are 3 kickers for camp. 2 of them will be gone and free up 1.5-2m... in reality that 1.15 number will likely be more around 15-20m, depending on who you cut.