2021: Be the GM Game

[harrisoncolts88]

Spent 18M out of 40M

 

Starter Holes

DE (Houston) - replaced by Romeo Okwara 6.5M

DE (Autry) - replaced by Trey Hendrickson 11.5M

CB1 (Rhodes) - drafted 54th - CB Tyson Campbell

WR1 (Hilton) - replaced by Desmond Pattmon (no $, basically every WR goes up a # rank)

LT (AC) - drafted 29th - OT Teven Jenkins

 

Key Depth/Contributor 

TE3 (Burton) - drafted 92nd - Tommy Tremble

MIKE (Walker co-starter) - replaced by Okereke (no $)

QB2 (JB) - replaced by Eason (no $)

CB3 (Carrie) - replaced by Marvell Tell (no $)

 

Colts trade 21st to Green Bay for 29th + 3rd rounder (92nd) + 4th rounder (142)

 

Bonus additions

Draft 127 - Oline depth

Draft 142 - WR/S depth

 

And so begins the savings for the huge contract extensions and taking advantage of a well stocked DE free agency class. As well as the beginning of getting those Compensatory picks

[danlhart87]

3 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

Spent 18M out of 40M

 

Starter Holes

DE (Houston) - replaced by Romeo Okwara 6.5M

DE (Autry) - replaced by Trey Hendrickson 11.5M

CB1 (Rhodes) - drafted 54th - CB Tyson Campbell

WR1 (Hilton) - replaced by Desmond Pattmon (no $, basically every WR goes up a # rank)

LT (AC) - drafted 29th - OT Teven Jenkins

 

Key Depth/Contributor 

TE3 (Burton) - drafted 92nd - Tommy Tremble

MIKE (Walker co-starter) - replaced by Okereke (no $)

QB2 (JB) - replaced by Eason (no $)

CB3 (Carrie) - replaced by Marvell Tell (no $)

 

Colts trade 21st to Green Bay for 29th + 3rd rounder (92nd) + 4th rounder (142)

 

Bonus additions

Draft 127 - Oline depth

Draft 142 - WR/S depth

 

And so begins the savings for the huge contract extensions and taking advantage of a well stocked DE free agency class. As well as the beginning of getting those Compensatory picks

Something interesting I read on Reddit from Packers fans following my mock where they take Bateman at 29.

 

Last time Packers drafted WR IN 1ST was 2002 so if they trade up look for it to be OL or edge or DL.

[EastStreet]

28 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

Spent 18M out of 40M

 

Starter Holes

DE (Houston) - replaced by Romeo Okwara 6.5M

DE (Autry) - replaced by Trey Hendrickson 11.5M

CB1 (Rhodes) - drafted 54th - CB Tyson Campbell

WR1 (Hilton) - replaced by Desmond Pattmon (no $, basically every WR goes up a # rank)

LT (AC) - drafted 29th - OT Teven Jenkins

Just starting to look at the details on all of these.

• I really like Tyson's upside, but I'd say you're gambling big time if you expect to Campbell, Rock, and Tell to be your 3 man rotation at CB, especially early. Given Blackmon really struggled and our secondary was a obvious weak spot on the team, I can't see them letting Rhodes walk. I could see them drafting Campbell though and bringing back Rhodes.
• Nit picking, but Campbell was graded at 52nd, so per the rules you would have had to throw in one of your late round picks to move us. 
• Not saying it's impossible, but Pattmon taking over at Z is a huge stretch. He's a big guy with decent speed for his size, but not Z type speed or twitch. He also doesn't play to his size, so being a possession WR out of the gate is probably a stretch too. There are Os that run 2 bigs like Patmon and Pittman, but that's not really Reich's O. I can see Patmon playing a hybrid roll as a deep guy if he can learn to stack, but reality is more likely he starts out as a depth X with situational packages thrown in.

28 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

 

Key Depth/Contributor 

TE3 (Burton) - drafted 92nd - Tommy Tremble

MIKE (Walker co-starter) - replaced by Okereke (no $)

QB2 (JB) - replaced by Eason (no $)

CB3 (Carrie) - replaced by Marvell Tell (no $)

• I like Tremble, but IMO we'd look more for a detached type of guy given we already have two great blockers. 
• Oke's performance last year was pretty concerning at times, and his PFF was sub 50 (plain bad). This would be another big gamble IMO. 
• Keep in mind Carrie is you NB2 and CB3. Very different skill set than Tell. Not saying it wouldn't work, but Carrie is more of a hammer, while tell is more of nail. We'd have to identify another NB option. 

28 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

 

Colts trade 21st to Green Bay for 29th + 3rd rounder (92nd) + 4th rounder (142)

That would be a solid pick up, of picks, but like above, you would have missed out on Jenkins who is 26th. 

 

[EastStreet]

Malcolm Butler was just released from TN, and would be an interesting CB to consider. Graded out 70+.

[harrisoncolts88]

17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Just starting to look at the details on all of these.

• I really like Tyson's upside, but I'd say you're gambling big time if you expect to Campbell, Rock, and Tell to be your 3 man rotation at CB, especially early. Given Blackmon really struggled and our secondary was a obvious weak spot on the team, I can't see them letting Rhodes walk. I could see them drafting Campbell though and bringing back Rhodes.
• Nit picking, but Campbell was graded at 52nd, so per the rules you would have had to throw in one of your late round picks to move us. 
• Not saying it's impossible, but Pattmon taking over at Z is a huge stretch. He's a big guy with decent speed for his size, but not Z type speed or twitch. He also doesn't play to his size, so being a possession WR out of the gate is probably a stretch too. There are Os that run 2 bigs like Patmon and Pittman, but that's not really Reich's O. I can see Patmon playing a hybrid roll as a deep guy if he can learn to stack, but reality is more likely he starts out as a depth X with situational packages thrown in.

• I like Tremble, but IMO we'd look more for a detached type of guy given we already have two great blockers. 
• Oke's performance last year was pretty concerning at times, and his PFF was sub 50 (plain bad). This would be another big gamble IMO. 
• Keep in mind Carrie is you NB2 and CB3. Very different skill set than Tell. Not saying it wouldn't work, but Carrie is more of a hammer, while tell is more of nail. We'd have to identify another NB option. 

That would be a solid pick up, of picks, but like above, you would have missed out on Jenkins who is 26th. 

 

 

Yea I figured I'd get called out for the picks but eh, there will be so many draftees on their board that are so far off from where they get drafted it won't be funny. I did think about adding Ahkello at CB during free agency but wanted to show the importance of keeping that cap was instead of spending that 40M. Plus every high signing just degrades the value of future Compensatory picks of 2022 which is how I think Ballard is replacing his lost pick of next year. As far as Carrie, in all honesty, Carrie had to play a lot on the outside this year due to injuries so Tell is just showing where he could be. Whereas someone already on the roster in the form of Rodgers could help out. And lastly I don't think Patmon replaces Hilton but instead someone like Pittman takes over at 1 with Parris and Pascal taking over at 2 and 3. They still have Harris, Patmon, and several other (including undrafted plus WR depth actually drafted) to fill in Hilton's role.

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, csmopar said:

I want no part of Dak. As for Watson, I said weeks ago and I’ll say it again, he would be the one player that I would trade multiple 1s to get. As many as 3.

 

2 hours ago, csmopar said:

I’d rather take Kwity Paye. That guy is gonna be special. I think he’s better than Rossueau as well. And I think he’s better than Phillips too.

 

my issues with Rossueau is the same issue I have with Phillips. Both are essentially 1 hit wonders. Ones that I think benefitted greatly from the players around them more than themselves. Rossueau sat out 2020, understandably so with Covid, philips replaces him and nearly mirrors the 2019 production of Rossueau, then declares for the draft. Two players , same position, on the same team with the same DL getting nearly  identical stats, at least in the same ball park stats, both only playing one year. It makes me extremely nervous. 
 

 

kwity paye on the other hand is a freak athlete, incredibly fast and agile for his size. 3 year starter, has improved each season. And stats wise, isn’t far behind the above two. He’s such a freak athlete that he was even noticed by SI and others. Watch his games, his motor is high and never quitting, his power and speed are incredible and he moves like a young Freeney but with more size, speed and power. He’s gonna be a stud. I think he’ll go too 15, (yes I know a lot of draft pundits have the Miami duo going before him but I think they’re skipping over the 1 year wonder concerns) which is why I’d like to trade up and nab him. I’d offer our 1 this year and a 4th if that gets us close. Or even next years 3rd. And I hate trading up and have always been against it, but this kid is that kind of special. 

Agree about Watson. I wouldn’t do the Dak deal.

 

Also, agree about Paye as well. Much better prospect than Rousseau IMO. Rousseau is strong, but super raw and not as athletic. 

I just think Paye is more athletic and has a much better motor...and his overall skill set (including pass rushing moves) will translate much better. That’s not to say Rousseau won’t develop...but I think Paye is both the safer prospect and he has more upside.

 

The knocks on Paye remind me of how people criticized Rashan Gary two years ago. Not splashy enough with sack totals...not as athletic on tape as he tests (apparently people just ignored the freakish closing speed). But Gary was and is incredibly talented. And heading into his age 23 season...he is going to blow up this year...just watch. This is why GB is shopping Preston Smith. 
 

I think Paye will also be a stud after a season or two. If Ballard is thinking EDGE early (instead of LT)...he will be very lucky if Paye makes it to #21. And I agree that if he gets close to #21...trade up and get it done. No more Day 2 projects. 

 

 

[EastStreet]

15 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

 

Yea I figured I'd get called out for the picks but eh, there will be so many draftees on their board that are so far off from where they get drafted it won't be funny. I did think about adding Ahkello at CB during free agency but wanted to show the importance of keeping that cap was instead of spending that 40M. Plus every high signing just degrades the value of future Compensatory picks of 2022 which is how I think Ballard is replacing his lost pick of next year. As far as Carrie, in all honesty, Carrie had to play a lot on the outside this year due to injuries so Tell is just showing where he could be. Whereas someone already on the roster in the form of Rodgers could help out. And lastly I don't think Patmon replaces Hilton but instead someone like Pittman takes over at 1 with Parris and Pascal taking over at 2 and 3. They still have Harris, Patmon, and several other (including undrafted plus WR depth actually drafted) to fill in Hilton's role.

Keep in mind that I capped the spend at 40M, which leaves $, and the cap will likely increase as well. Thinking about comp picks right now is futile IMO. 

 

Carry played both NB and outside. He's much better at NB than outside. He only played outside IMO because Moore was looking pretty bad when they had him playing outside. In short though, Carrie is a fantastic depth piece that can play either. I doubt Tell could play NB if Moore went down. Rodgers IMO would get eaten alive at NB, at least now with his size and weight. Also, relying on Tell to shake the rust off after missing a year of development might be overly assumptive. Anyway, I'd wager plenty that Rhodes is back. IIRC, the FO has said Rhodes is a priority. And if not him, I'd bet another FA. That doesn't mean though we won't draft one too.

 

At WR, while I know we can't always get tied to X, slot, and Z, it is reality unless we really revamp the O.

For sake of simplicity, I'll list in two groupings, X and big slot, plus Z and traditional slot.

 

X/Big slot - Pittman, Patmon, Pascal

Z/Traditional slot - Harris, Campbell, (JJ Nelson)

Tweeners/TBD - Dulin, (Gary Jennings, Quartney Davis)

Note - the guys in () are PS/Futures guys and are a stretch to get any real PT.

 

So in short, we all know Pittman will be X, so we can remove that. Pascal will more than likely be back as he's an RFA, and will likely take up 20-30% of slot snaps when in big-slot sets along with depth at X. That's about the most you want (20-30%) assuming you have a capable traditional slot. That leaves you with Z and 70-80% traditional slot snaps. 

 

So you're left with Campbell, who hasn't been able to stay healthy, and Harris who is very raw, to account for 1.8 starting equivalents. Patmon really doesn't do much for that 1.8, unless we change the offense substantially. I do like Harris's upside and potential, but I doubt they go into the season assuming he's anything more than back-up slot, gimmick, or situational guy. And Patmon as a back up X and package guy. Dulin is really the only guy I can see snagging some of that 1.8. Bottom line, I'd bet a decent amount they either bring in a FA, or draft by the third round to help with that 1.8. And we just need to pray Campbell can stay healthy.

[WoolMagnet]

reading thru these makes me even MORE happy that Ballard has the final word.

[OhioColt]

Seems draft picks keep changing daily but should be close depending on the charts and compensation picks within a few +/-.

 

Starter Holes

DE (Houston) – replaced with Ryan Kerrigan 4m

DE (Autry) – resign 6m

CB1 (Rhodes) – resign 8m

WR1 (Hilton) – resign 8m

LT (AC) –LT Tevin Jenkins drafted 29th via Packers trade

 

Key Depth/Contributor 

TE3 (Burton) – draft Tre' McKitty 207th and Nick Eubanks 244th overall via PIT

MIKE (Walker co-starter) – replaced with Okereke (no added $ or cap).  Draft Monty Rice 92nd via GB

QB2 (JB) – replaced by Eason (no added $ or cap)

CB3 (Carrie) – resign 2m but draft CB/S Israel Mukuamu with 128th pick via PIT.

 

Trade Details

IND trades back with GB get R1P29 and GB gets Colts R1P21.  IND also receive R3P92, R5P174, and R6P215

 

IND trades R5P166 to PIT plus R5P174 (via GB) for PITs R4P128 and R7P244

 

PFF Draft

R1P29 (GB-IND) LT Tevin Jenkins – Replaces AC

R2P54 LCB Tay Gowan – compete with Rock,  A sleeper who skipped 2020 was surprised to see PFF ranked so highly

R3P92 (GB-IND) ILB Monty Rice - Rice is an elite run defender while Okereke better at Pass coverage

R4P127 DT Marlon Tuipulotu – Stewart’s replacement in 2-3 years

R4P128 (PIT-IND) CB/S Israel Mukuamu – future to replace Carrie and Rhodes.  Better at Cover 3 than Rhodes.  Capable SS.

R6P207 TE Tre' McKitty - compete to replace Burton with Eubanks 244th pick

R6P214 (GB-IND) C Michal Menet

R7P244 (PIT-IND) TE Nick Eubanks – fast for a TE 4.69 40-yard dash in HS and been clocked low 4.5 at Michigan

R7P247 RB Jermar Jefferson – replaces Mack’s ground game

[danlhart87]

How funny!

 

I just realized 3 GMs here have now traded down to Packers!

 

Would be ironic if it really happened!

[OhioColt]

1 hour ago, danlhart87 said:

How funny!

 

I just realized 3 GMs here have now traded down to Packers!

 

Would be ironic if it really happened!

Packers with their compensation picks in Rounds 5 and 6 are only 4 picks later. Realistically they wouldn’t be giving up much except to lose a 3rd but trade up in Round 1.  Definitely would take this trade.

[danlhart87]

52 minutes ago, OhioColt said:

Packers with their compensation picks in Rounds 5 and 6 are only 4 picks later. Realistically they wouldn’t be giving up much except to lose a 3rd but trade up in Round 1.  Definitely would take this trade.

Just keep in mind most people say they will trade up for WR but hadn't taken one in 1st since 2002

[hoosierhawk]

16 hours ago, shasta519 said:

Yeah...I wouldn’t do it for Dak either. But I don’t think it’s a joke. 

Sorry. I think it would be.

[harrisoncolts88]

With this exercise and drafting in those mock simulators, I find myself always getting a LT in the first round. But I just keep hoping that we somehow come away with someone in Free Agency (Lawson, Okwara, etc) and then somehow Kwity Paye falls to 21. And then we pick up LT with the 54th. But please, don't wake me up and let me sleep and dream a little longer.

[w87r]

7 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

Sorry. I think it would be.

Definitely is a joke. I am presuming that is what you are saying it would be.

 

This isn't the NBA where contracts have to match up and money is traded all dollar for dollar, teams would be stuck with big dead cap hits. 

 

 

 

As far as the GM game:

Starter Holes:

DE (Houston) – Hendrickson $12m

DE (Autry) – re-sign 5m

CB1 (Rhodes) – re-sign 8m

WR1 (Hilton) – Agholor $7m + Draft pick

LT (AC) – OT - Alijah Vera-Tucker $1.8m

 

Key Depth/Contributor: 

TE3 (Burton) – resign $2m + Draft pick

MIKE (Walker co-starter) –  Okereke + Draft pick

QB2 (JB) – Eason 

CB3 (Carrie) – re-sign $1m + Draft pick

 

 

Bonus:

2nd Rd - Eric Stokes, CB $970k

Below top 51 cap space:

4th Rd - Trey Sermon RB

5th Rd - Garrett Wallow LB 

6th Rd - Isaiah McKoy WR

7th Rd - Tony Poljan TE

 

 

+8 players:(top 51)(12 players total)

$37.8m

 

-8 players:($780k per)

$6.2m

 

$31.6m total off of top 51 cap space.

 

$12-$15m left over based off $43-$47m cap space remaining.

 

 

EDIT:

Extensions:

Leonard -$5m more in 2021

Smith -$3m more in 2021.

 

 

Leaves $4m-$7m in cap space.

[Boondoggle]

I'd pursue TE Dan Arnold in FA.  Some folks were talking him up last offseason and he played well but still might have more value than he's showing.  Big kid too.

 

Also I would try to trade for Moton.  Panthers are building and they just tagged him.  That Colts first round pick is in a nice range for a replacement (it will cost more than that I realize) and the Colts get a guy who fits a contender.

[craigerb]

On 3/10/2021 at 5:17 PM, EastStreet said:

 

Why not just make a chart of players and their cost, then revise our roster up to $40M net change?

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, craigerb said:

Why not just make a chart of players and their cost, then revise our roster up to $40M net change?

not sure what you quoted, as it's blank. Can you expand? 

 

And as far as tables, are you talking about pasting an image of a chart? If so, many have tried, and it's not a great visual. I wish the site enabled charts (IIRC Invision has the feature).

[OhioColt]

2nd attempt now that FA has opened and top players making moves to new Clubs.

 

Starter Holes

DE (Houston) – replaced in draft Ronnie Perkins added depth either Patrick Johnson or Elerson Smith

DE (Autry) – replaced in draft Cameron Sample

CB1 (Rhodes) – resigned 8m

WR1 (Hilton) – Sign FA JuJu Smith-Schuster 5yr/13.5m

LT (AC) – draft Samuel Cosmi

 

Key Depth/Contributor

TE3 (Burton) – resigned 3.5m

MIKE (Walker co-starter) – replaced in-house Okereke and draft Rice take SLB co-starter role

QB2-3 (JB) draft Jamie Newman

CB3 (Carrie) resigned 

 

Trades

IND trades back with GB get R1P29 and GB gets Colts R1P21.  IND also receive R3P92, R5P173, R6P212, R7P254 

 

IND trades R5P165 to PIT plus R5P173 (via GB) for PITs R4P128 and R7P244 

IND trades RD2P54, R6P212 (GB-IND) R7P244 (PIT-IND), R7P247 and R7P254 (GB-IND) to NYJ for NYJ’s R3P66, NYJ R4P107, R5P154 

 

PFF Draft

R1P29 (GB-IND) LT Samuel Cosmi – replaces AC

R3P66 (NYJ-IND) Ronnie Perkins - replaces Houston

R3P92 (GB-IND) Cameron Sample – replace Autry

R4P107 (NYJ-IND) SLB Monty Rice – new co-starting with Okereke

R4P127 QB Jamie Newman – replaces Brissett

R4P128 (PIT-IND) Elerson Smith or Patrick Johnson – depth replacement for Houston

R5P154 (NYJ-IND) CB/S Israel Mukuamu

 

Without Trades 

Probably looking something like this and have to sign a short-term LT in FA:

 

R1P21 Edge Gregory Rousseau / Edge Joseph Ossai – replaces Houston

R2P54 Payton Turner – replaces Autry

R4P127 SLB Monty Rice / QB Jamie Newman

R5P165 Chauncey Golston or Adetokunbo Ogundeji – replace Autry / CB Israel Mukuamu

R6P204 RG Tommy Kraemer

R7P247 RB Jermar Jefferson – RB depth replaces Wilkins FA 2022