Colts not pursuing Rivers per Matthew Berry

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Yes, but doesn't mean he will. QBs that are long in the tooth are only concerned about winning especially if they think they can still play.

I'd bet he's in a different frame of mine. He's probably been humbled a bit getting dumped, and I also think he sees the end now, which in itself is a lot. 

 

I'm sure wherever he goes, he comes in with a chip, and wants to win. That said, he'll likely choose to go to the best situation for winning + money, and if that means a a little mentoring, he'd be fine with that. 

[Thunderbolt]

There are plenty of potential QBs you can draft to develop as your future QB.  In the mean time take someone in Free Agency for the rookie QB to gain experience from to be our signal caller for the future.  I mean Rivers would fit that bill, as he has strong ties with Reich and Siriani.  I think they'll make that happen...

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

I'd bet he's in a different frame of mine. He's probably been humbled a bit getting dumped, and I also think he sees the end now, which in itself is a lot. 

 

I'm sure wherever he goes, he comes in with a chip, and wants to win. That said, he'll likely choose to go to the best situation for winning + money, and if that means a a little mentoring, he'd be fine with that. 

 

So let's say we give Rivers a two year 30 mil contract and he's terrible and gets benched in first four games then what? We're on the hook for atleast 15 mil.

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So let's say we give Rivers a two year 30 mil contract and he's terrible and gets benched in first four games then what? We're on the hook for atleast 15 mil.

Those are the breaks lol... it's all a gamble no matter who we sign or draft. 

You have to take risks though to get better, and I'm sure Ballard and Reich would do their homework and have a clear plan. Not really worried about him bombing though, as I'm sure Reich would do everything possible to play to his strengths and hide his weaknesses. One thing is for sure though, the playbook would be more open than it was with JB last year.

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Those are the breaks lol... it's all a gamble no matter who we sign or draft. 

You have to take risks though to get better, and I'm sure Ballard and Reich would do their homework and have a clear plan. Not really worried about him bombing though, as I'm sure Reich would do everything possible to play to his strengths and hide his weaknesses. One thing is for sure though, the playbook would be more open than it was with JB last year.

 

I don't think it will because it's not like Rivers can throw deep anymore. We'd still be doing a lot of what Brissett did. Dumb offs and 5 yard throws. 

[MPStack]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

I don't think it will because it's not like Rivers can throw deep anymore. We'd still be doing a lot of Brissett did. Dumb offs and 5 yard throws. 

I’ll take another 4,000 plus yard season from Rivers and close to the 280+ he passed for a game, over JB. 

[Coffeedrinker]

I think the Colts will pick up a FA QB and release JB after the draft.  My blackhorse FA Qb is  Trevor Siemian.

[boo2202]

19 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I'm in the camp that it's been 4 years.  How much longer does he need?  Every developmental prospect hanging on for dear life is another developmental prospect we could be missing out on.

 

Not sure why anyone, would want another year of JB. He’s a backup QB, don’t kid yourself into thinking different. Tried of hearing the old he’s a good teammate or he’s a great leader. Awesome I’m glad he’s got those traits but he’s just not very good. 

[CR91]

5 minutes ago, Superfly said:

I’ll take another 4,000 plus yard season from Rivers and close to the 280+ he passed for a game, over JB. 

 

Did that 4000 yard season win games? Chargers had plenty of talent and Rivers cost them games. 

[MPStack]

2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Did that 4000 yard season win games? Chargers had plenty of talent and Rivers cost them games. 

I have no doubt, it would win more games for the Colts in 2020. 
 

 

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, Superfly said:

I have no doubt, it would win more games for the Colts in 2020. 
 

 

 

How exactly? I can argue the chargers have much better weapons then us and a similar defense

[DougDew]

12 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I think the Colts will pick up a FA QB and release JB after the draft.  My blackhorse FA Qb is  Trevor Siemian.

LOL.  That would be Ballard's Grigson/Eric Walden moment, where the Colts had all of this hype and cap space to sign FAs with and Grigson deflates the forums 3 month long bone in 5 seconds with one name.  He was hated ever since, and if Ballard signs Siemian as the crescendo to a build up, many will hate him forever too.

[stitches]

Rivers is still a much better QB than Jacoby and he will have quite possibly the best OLine he's had in his career with us. The worst thing to happen to an aging QB who's losing a step movement-wise is to have a horrible OLine and this is exactly what happened with him this year. He was running for his life for most of the year and dealing with constant pressure. His Oline was one of the worst pass-protection units in the league. IMO he will benefit more from a great OLine than he will suffer from worse weapons. 

 

Something people underestimate when thinking about our QB position is - how does it affect the other players not only performance-wise, but also development-wise. This is still a very young team with young weapons and OLine offensively(and will very likely get even more highly rated offensive weapons in the draft). Phillip Rivers may not be what he used to be(although I still think he's better than what he showed last year). but he's still one of the best QBs when it comes to the mental part of the game and he still will be able to execute the offense and actually get the ball to the hands of his receivers, something I will contend JB had serious trouble with. He was missing open receivers all the time and had trouble throwing with timing and anticipation. That's big part of the reason why even our best weapons had trouble producing and our young WRs couldn't hit the ground running like we expected. I think the OLine will have better experience with a QB who makes quick decisions and reads and gets rid off the ball quickly, unlike Brissett and I think the Campbells and Hines and Fountains of the world and whoever else we draft in April will have much better chance to show off their abilities and work on their skill with a QB who can get the ball to them when they are open. 

 

I'd take Rivers and I think he's a considerable upgrade over what JB provides for us. I have no idea if he's willing to be a mentor to a young QB, but that will have to be part of the conversations with him. I've read what he said 3-4 years ago, but this is a new world for him and this time he's truly coming close to retirement and has no team. To me this would be one of the prerequisites. If he says he doesn't want to at the very least let a young QB learn around him, he can go find himself a better situation to end his career with... I don't think many better situations exist for him at the moment. We actually have some leverage in this negotiation too. 

[OffensivelyPC]

11 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

 

Not sure why anyone, would want another year of JB. He’s a backup QB, don’t kid yourself into thinking different. Tried of hearing the old he’s a good teammate or he’s a great leader. Awesome I’m glad he’s got those traits but he’s just not very good. 

I agree with you.  There's a reason he was behind Luck.  I mean, there's a lot of QBs that would sit behind Luck, but Brissett wasn't a Steve Young/Aaron Rodgers waiting for his chance.

[EastStreet]

26 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I don't think it will because it's not like Rivers can throw deep anymore. We'd still be doing a lot of what Brissett did. Dumb offs and 5 yard throws. 

he's still top 10ish in AVG, so not worrying about inability for deep stuff

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

he's still top 10ish in AVG, so not worrying about inability for deep stuff

 

So then you're basically wasting Hilton's and Campbell's speed

[EastStreet]

2 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So then you're basically wasting Hilton's and Campbell's speed

No, I'm saying I don't buy he can't throw deep. His AVG 7.8 is still better than Luck's 2018 7.2.

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

So then you're basically wasting Hilton's and Campbell's speed

What? How did you come to this conclusion? Hilton and Campbell will be wasted if we don't have someone to throw to them when they get open or are about to get open but their QB lacks anticipation to see the throw. Rivers can also still throw deep... He just can't move a ton and escape pressure. 

 

 

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

What? How did you come to this conclusion? Hilton and Campbell will be wasted if we don't have someone to throw to them when they get open or are about to get open but their QB lacks anticipation to see the throw. Rivers can also still throw deep... He just can't move a ton and escape pressure. 

 

No he can't. A lot of his throws this year were dumb offs and intermediate. Hilton and Campbell have the speed to take the top off of defenses, but that means nothing if the QB can't get them the ball.

[stitches]

7 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

No he can't. A lot of his throws this year were dumb offs and intermediate. Hilton and Campbell have the speed to take the top off of defenses, but that means nothing if the QB can't get them the ball.

This is just NOT true. Rivers is still in the upper half of the league in both completed and intended air yards per attempt(right next to players like Mahomes, Mayfield, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Sam Darnold, etc.). His arm is not what it used to be, but he's plenty capable of making deep throws. 

[OffensivelyPC]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Something people underestimate when thinking about our QB position is - how does it affect the other players not only performance-wise, but also development-wise.

I think that more people overestimate the development of QBs.  "He'll develop if you give him enough time!"  I mean, how much time does he need?  And what's his game when he's "finished" developing?  

 

I get the feeling people hear "developmental" and automatically assume it will happen.  Time and work ethic accomplish alot, but not everyone has the capacity to start in the NFL, much less be one of the best.  That's why I don't understand the crowd that doesn't want to draft a QB high thinking we'll find a Russell Wilson/Drew Brees bargain.  I mean, yeah, it's always possible, but it's just soooo unlikely.  

[CR91]

8 minutes ago, stitches said:

This is just NOT true. Rivers is still in the upper half of the league in both completed and intended air yards per attempt(right next to players like Mahomes, Mayfield, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Sam Darnold, etc.). His arm is not what it used to be, but he's plenty capable of making deep throws. 

 

That a joke? What stat are you looking at to prove that? I actually watched chargers game being on the west coast and all I saw was dumboffs to Eleker, Henry in the middle, and intermediate throws to Allen.

[stitches]

4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

That a joke? What stat are you looking at to prove that? I actually watched chargers game being on the west coast and all I saw was dumboffs to Eleker, Henry in the middle, and intermediate throws to Allen.

Next gen stats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

 

Hell there is even a stat about the longest completed pass in the air - 56.5 yards... this is 12th in the league. 

 

[CR91]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Next gen stats: https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards

 

Hell there is even a stat about the longest completed pass in the air - 56.5 yards... this is 12th in the league. 

 

 

So because it says he has a 56 yard completion, he can throw deep? For all we know it was a catch and run

[stitches]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

So because it says he has a 56 yard completion, he can throw deep? For all we know it was a catch and run

It's not. It's a stat about completed pass in the air, this is the air distance the pass traveled. 

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not. It's a stat about completed pass in the air, this is the air distance the pass traveled. 

 

Do we have any other plays besides one outlier

[chad72]

9 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not. It's a stat about completed pass in the air, this is the air distance the pass traveled. 

 

He can throw it deep but it took a few circus catches from Mike Williams to come down with amazing catches that were 50/50 balls or high degree of difficulty catches. Man, Mike Williams would have had a field year if Rivers was more accurate, to be honest.

 

 

 

Then this,

 

 

Then this:

 

 

 

[DougDew]

9 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

That a joke? What stat are you looking at to prove that? I actually watched chargers game being on the west coast and all I saw was dumboffs to Eleker, Henry in the middle, and intermediate throws to Allen.

You saw it correctly.  The universe of stats is probably being influenced by the fact that offenses are throwing shorter passes as a whole than what they used to, in part to get the ball out of the hands of the QB.

 

So if Rivers ranks well in the NFL for yards per pass attempt, it may simply be a reflection of the other teams throwing long less, illustrating how the NFL as a whole devalues the long ball more than it used to.

 

But your observations that he threw short a lot being correct.

 

And a lot of those QBs that ranked high on the Intended Air Yards are on bad teams.....attempts down the field correlating with being a losing team.

[stitches]

25 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I think that more people overestimate the development of QBs.  "He'll develop if you give him enough time!"  I mean, how much time does he need?  And what's his game when he's "finished" developing?  

 

I get the feeling people hear "developmental" and automatically assume it will happen.  Time and work ethic accomplish alot, but not everyone has the capacity to start in the NFL, much less be one of the best.  That's why I don't understand the crowd that doesn't want to draft a QB high thinking we'll find a Russell Wilson/Drew Brees bargain.  I mean, yeah, it's always possible, but it's just soooo unlikely.  

It's because people remember the Wilsons and Brees' of the world because they are in front of their eyes as examples of what a later round pick or a mid-career signing can become... They don't remember the dozens upon dozens of failed 3d-5th rounders or failed mid-career team switches. Noone remembers Mike Glennon or Matt Barkley or Ryan Nassib or Tyler Wilson or Landry Jones or Logan Thomas or Tom Savage or Aaron Murray or AJ McCarron or Zach Mettenberger or David Fales or Garrett Grayson or Sean Mannion or Bryce Petty or Brett Hundley or Cody Kessler or Connor Cook or Cardale Jones or Kevin Hogan or Ryan Mallett or Ricky Stanzi or T.J Yates or Colt McCoy or Mike Kafka or John Skelton or Jonathan Crompton or Stephen McGee or Pat White or Rhett Bomar or Nate Davis or Brian Brohm or Chad Henne or Kevin O'Connell or Dennis Dixon or Josh Johnson or Erik Einge or John David Booty and yes... this is the name I will end the list on, not because there aren't more but because I just couldn't help myself and it's perfectly representative of what you can expect from a mid-to-late round pick at QB. I'm childish like this. 

[PrincetonTiger]

@stitches

 

   Impressive but in most of those cases the players were drafted into bad situations, unfriendly QB situations, played in gimmick College Os  and/or made bonehead mistakes

 

 

[OffensivelyPC]

10 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

@stitches

 

   Impressive but in most of those cases the players were drafted into bad situations, unfriendly QB situations, played in gimmick College Os  and/or made bonehead mistakes

 

 

So if we're a "good situation" it should works out like we hope it would.  There should be no problem drafting Love and having him sit behind Rivers.

[stitches]

17 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

@stitches

 

   Impressive but in most of those cases the players were drafted into bad situations, unfriendly QB situations, and/or made bonehead mistakes

Maybe for some of them, but I would contend that the biggest common denominator here is that huge majority of those were simply not as talented and likely to succeed in whatever situation you put them. And this is the reason they fell... they fall because they are not as good of prospects and because they are not likely to succeed. 

 

This is my point... drafting a mid-late round QB and expecting him to be your franchise QB is fool's errand. The success stories are few and far between. The reality is - huge majority of those don't amount to anything and if we are drafting such a player, we should do it with the appropriate level of expectations - namely, as a wild shot... (and BTW because of the importance of the QB position, wild shots make sense in some scenarios - like if you already have a QB, drafting a QB every second year in the mid-rounds is good business because if you succeed you secure cheap backup/insurance/valuable trade piece... just like the Patriots have been doing since forever. 

[DougDew]

13 minutes ago, stitches said:

Maybe for some of them, but I would contend that the biggest common denominator here is that huge majority of those were simply not as talented and likely to succeed in whatever situation you put them. And this is the reason they fell... they fall because they are not as good of prospects and because they are not likely to succeed. 

 

This is my point... drafting a mid-late round QB and expecting him to be your franchise QB is fool's errand. The success stories are few and far between. The reality is - huge majority of those don't amount to anything and if we are drafting such a player, we should do it with the appropriate level of expectations - namely, as a wild shot... (and BTW because of the importance of the QB position, wild shots make sense in some scenarios - like if you already have a QB, drafting a QB every second year in the mid-rounds is good business because if you succeed you secure cheap backup/insurance/valuable trade piece... just like the Patriots have been doing since forever. 

That reality also applies to LT, EDGE, and a 3 down DT, IMO.

[PrincetonTiger]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Maybe for some of them, but I would contend that the biggest common denominator here is that huge majority of those were simply not as talented and likely to succeed in whatever situation you put them. And this is the reason they fell... they fall because they are not as good of prospects and because they are not likely to succeed. 

 

This is my point... drafting a mid-late round QB and expecting him to be your franchise QB is fool's errand. The success stories are few and far between. The reality is - huge majority of those don't amount to anything and if we are drafting such a player, we should do it with the appropriate level of expectations - namely, as a wild shot... 

drafting a 1st Round QB can be risky too

 

    None of the guys you listed were ever drafted/ signed to be the franchise

      In fact some of them had long and successful careers as pros 

 

  A mid round miss does not change the winds of a franchise like a 1st Round bomb

  

    

[MPStack]

15 minutes ago, stitches said:

Maybe for some of them, but I would contend that the biggest common denominator here is that huge majority of those were simply not as talented and likely to succeed in whatever situation you put them. And this is the reason they fell... they fall because they are not as good of prospects and because they are not likely to succeed. 

 

This is my point... drafting a mid-late round QB and expecting him to be your franchise QB is fool's errand. The success stories are few and far between. The reality is - huge majority of those don't amount to anything and if we are drafting such a player, we should do it with the appropriate level of expectations - namely, as a wild shot... (and BTW because of the importance of the QB position, wild shots make sense in some scenarios - like if you already have a QB, drafting a QB every second year in the mid-rounds is good business because if you succeed you secure cheap backup/insurance/valuable trade piece... just like the Patriots have been doing since forever. 

 

Thank you! 

[Colts_Fan12]

15 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

Herbert. Rookie QBs start all the time. 

our fans seem to think rookie QBs have to sit a year or they are automatically gonna be terrible lol

[Coffeedrinker]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

No he can't. A lot of his throws this year were dumb offs and intermediate. Hilton and Campbell have the speed to take the top off of defenses, but that means nothing if the QB can't get them the ball.

That is going to be true for any QB in the league.  The majority of throws in the NFL are short and intermediate.

[PrincetonTiger]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

That reality also applies to LT, EDGE, and a 3 down DT, IMO.

It can be said about most positions 

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

That is going to be true for any QB in the league.  The majority of throws in the NFL are short and intermediate.

 

Tell that to Mahomes, Brees, Rodgers, wilson. Watson, and Jackson

[stitches]

13 minutes ago, DougDew said:

That reality also applies to LT, EDGE, and a 3 down DT, IMO.

Yeah, to a big degree it applies to most positions. Teams are not perfect in their evaluations and they miss sometimes but over large enough sample the higher drafted players are more likely to succeed. The reason you prioritize QB is because QB is the most important position in football by a huge margin. 

 

13 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

drafting a 1st Round QB can be risky too

 

    None of the guys you listed were ever drafted/ signed to be the franchise

      In fact some of them had long and successful careers as pros 

 

  A mid round miss does not change the winds of a franchise like a 1st Round bomb

  

    

Yep, there is nothing guaranteed even if you draft a QB in the 1st. You have about 50-50 chance for him to bust. There is no easy solution for teams with no franchise QB. But you have no choice - you just have to go for it and keep trying until you find your guy, because the alternative is worse. You have to go for success rather than being risk averse. Also - worth pointing out - QBs bust at about the same rate as every single other position in the 1st round. So... Love/Herbert/Tua will bust at about the same rate as Brown/Kinlaw/Lamb/Becton/Chaisson/Fulton/ etc.... there is no guarantee in the draft.