Colts not pursuing Rivers per Matthew Berry

[DougDew]

10 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

It can be said about most positions 

Yeah, but it applies more to the positions where having more talent is more important.  Sure, not every player can be a first round talent, so there has to be a prioritization.

[DougDew]

5 minutes ago, stitches said:

Yeah, to a big degree it applies to most positions. Teams are not perfect in their evaluations and they miss sometimes but over large enough sample the higher drafted players are more likely to succeed. The reason you prioritize QB is because QB is the most important position in football by a huge margin. 

 

Yep, there is nothing guaranteed even if you draft a QB in the 1st. You have about 50-50 chance for him to bust. There is no easy solution for teams with no franchise QB. But you have no choice - you just have to go for it and keep trying until you find your guy, because the alternative is worse. You have to go for success rather than being risk averse. Also - worth pointing out - QBs bust at about the same rate as every single other position in the 1st round. So... Love/Herbert/Tua will bust at about the same rate as Brown/Kinlaw/Lamb/Becton/Chaisson/Fulton/ etc.... there is no guarantee in the draft. 

I'd like to see the stats on LTs.  Recent picks, within the past 5 or 6 years.

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I'd like to see the stats on LTs.  Recent picks, within the past 5 or 6 years.

There are some stats that suggest offensive linemen actually have higher success rate than other positions(still not much higher - we are talking about 50% vs 57% or something of the sort). @EastStreetposted the research a while ago, but the important caveat here is that with offensive linemen the stats they use are a bit skewed because of the dearth of talent at the position and the undue importance of draft slot for OL - meaning some offensive linemen get tons and tons of experience and shots because of their high draft slot and pedigree even if they are bad that other positions don't get(at least not to that degree), so by the stats used they don't come out as 'busts', but if you watch their play they are obvious busts. 

 

 

[Valpo2004]

14 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

"Berry notes that one Colts insider told him that if Indianapolis signed Rivers, it “would go against everything general manager Chris Ballard has done the entire time he’s been in Indy.”

 

Chris Ballard has never needed a QB before now and he also definitively said for the first time ever that the team could handle a "Name Free Agent"

 

This sounds like mostly speculation.  Not saying it's wrong but it's far from definitive and also from a source that's not known to have inside sources.  

[Coffeedrinker]

40 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Tell that to Mahomes, Brees, Rodgers, wilson. Watson, and Jackson

I don't need to, for all them the majority of their throws are short to intermediate.

[Coffeedrinker]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

LOL.  That would be Ballard's Grigson/Eric Walden moment, where the Colts had all of this hype and cap space to sign FAs with and Grigson deflates the forums 3 month long bone in 5 seconds with one name.  He was hated ever since, and if Ballard signs Siemian as the crescendo to a build up, many will hate him forever too.

Yeah, but Walden turned out to be a pretty good player for the Colts.  Grigson was a bad GM in a lot of ways, but he did bring in some talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Walden is one example, DQ, Mike Adams, Vontae Davis, Cory Redding (those last two are more because they were plays Pags wanted, knew Redding from his time with the Ravens and new Davis because of his time as a DB coach) but it was Grigs that pulled trigger and made it happen.

[CR91]

10 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I don't need to, for all them the majority of their throws are short to intermediate.

 

Are we watching the same QBs? I'm not talking greatest show on turf chuck it up offense, but the deep passes are part of their games. You can't say the same about Rivers because he can't anymore at this point in his career.

[Coffeedrinker]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

Are we watching the same QBs? I'm not talking greatest show on turf chuck it up offense, but the deep passes are part of their games. You can't say the same about Rivers because he can't anymore at this point in his career.

I never said deep passes are not a part of their game, just that the majority of their passes are short to intermediate throws.

 

Here is a link to Mahomes

 

Most passes are 20 yards and less (you know short to intermediate passes)

 

Here is Brees

 

Here is Wilson

 

Here is Rivers

 

I could go on, but I think you are smart enough to see the point.  All Qbs, the majority of their passes are short to intermediate routes.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

There are some stats that suggest offensive linemen actually have higher success rate than other positions(still not much higher - we are talking about 50% vs 57% or something of the sort). @EastStreetposted the research a while ago, but the important caveat here is that with offensive linemen the stats they use are a bit skewed because of the dearth of talent at the position and the undue importance of draft slot for OL - meaning some offensive linemen get tons and tons of experience and shots because of their high draft slot and pedigree even if they are bad that other positions don't get(at least not to that degree), so by the stats used they don't come out as 'busts', but if you watch their play they are obvious busts. 

 

 

I get it, when we want to discount the stats we come up with mitigating circumstances, then when we want to make a favorable point about something else then we are supposed to just go with the stats. 

 

I'll just take it as the stats suggest that first round OTs have a higher success rate than many other positions. 

[CR91]

8 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I never said deep passes are not a part of their game, just that the majority of their passes are short to intermediate throws.

 

Here is a link to Mahomes

 

Most passes are 20 yards and less (you know short to intermediate passes)

 

Here is Brees

 

Here is Wilson

 

Here is Rivers

 

I could go on, but I think you are smart enough to see the point.  All Qbs, the majority of their passes are short to intermediate routes.

 

I saw that already from another poster. Doesn't prove Rivers can take advantage of Hilton and Campbell speed which will cap our offense again. We need a new option at QB not damaged goods.

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Yeah, but Walden turned out to be a pretty good player for the Colts.  Grigson was a bad GM in a lot of ways, but he did bring in some talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Walden is one example, DQ, Mike Adams, Vontae Davis, Cory Redding (those last two are more because they were plays Pags wanted, knew Redding from his time with the Ravens and new Davis because of his time as a DB coach) but it was Grigs that pulled trigger and made it happen.

Not disputing the history. 

 

I'm just saying that if the forum strokes itself for three months over getting a new qb, and then they have to walk away without a climax, which is what a Siemien signing would do, Ballard is asking for trouble.  Especially if Siemien flops.

 

Having said that, I think you made a good suggestion about Siemien.

[Coffeedrinker]

3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I saw that already from another poster. Doesn't prove Rivers can take advantage of Hilton and Campbell speed which will cap our offense again. We need a new option at QB not damaged goods.

I'm not claiming he can, nor am I making a case for Rivers, you just claimed that most of Rivers passes are dump off and intermediate passes, my point was that is true for all QBs in the NFL, I even bolded the part of your post to show you which part I was talking about, to which you gave a snarky reply of tell that to Mahomes, Brees, Wilson, ...then when I said I don't have to because the majority of their passes are short to intermediate you tried to claim your superior knowledge by asking if we were talking about the same QBs. So I proved that it is in fact true for all those QBs and more.

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I get it, when we want to discount the stats we come up with mitigating circumstances, then when we want to make a favorable point about something else then we are supposed to just go with the stats. 

 

I'll just take it as the stats suggest that first round OTs have a higher success rate than many other positions. 

 

Context is important with stats. Here's the article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

They themselves explain why the stats for OL might be bit inflated:

Quote

 

An offensive lineman’s AV is based solely on his team’s offensive performance, his own playing time and any accolades he receives (like Pro Bowl or All-Pro nods). So, short of being outright benched, there’s very little he could do to distinguish himself negatively under the structure of the study above (or those like it). A skill-position player struggling to meet expectations, on the other hand, can be identified via his inferior yardage, touchdowns, turnovers and the like. (To the extent that those metrics are even good descriptors of player performance.)

 

It’s similar to the phenomenon that causes linemen to boast a far higher Pro Bowl “retention rate” than other offensive positions, particularly quarterbacks. The less information voters have to go on, the more they rely on a player’s priors (and perhaps rightly so). And the same can go for the draft, where certain positions can feel safer simply because we don’t have glaring, easily-quantifiable evidence to the contrary.

 

 

[CR91]

7 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I'm not claiming he can, nor am I making a case for Rivers, you just claimed that most of Rivers passes are dump off and intermediate passes, my point was that is true for all QBs in the NFL, I even bolded the part of your post to show you which part I was talking about, to which you gave a snarky reply of tell that to Mahomes, Brees, Wilson, ...then when I said I don't have to because the majority of their passes are short to intermediate you tried to claim your superior knowledge by asking if we were talking about the same QBs. So I proved that it is in fact true for all those QBs and more.

 

Are we really going to debate rather or not offenses are tailored by the short game? Yes you're right. I'm sure the average yard per play in the NFL is between 3-5 yards.

[PrincetonTiger]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

Context is important with stats. Here's the article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

They themselves explain why the stats for OL might be bit inflated:

 

 

I have said more  than once that stats alone are faulty 

[DougDew]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

 

Context is important with stats. Here's the article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

 

 

 

They themselves explain why the stats for OL might be bit inflated:

 

Yes I know.  Context is always important with stats.