When to take a QB in Draft

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

So I’ve been looking into this and it is really a crapshoot. High picks rarely win Super Bowls, but later round picks are a toss up. Overall you just don’t know. This is the breakdown that have for everyone, thought it was at least fun to look at, especially this year. So for those saying take one at 13, you could totally find a great QB, you could also get a complete bust. 
 

gotta love the draft. 
 

QBs in Divisional Round

Jimmy G- pick 62

Kirk Cousins- pick 102

Aaron Rodgers-  pick 24

Russell Wilson-  pick 75

Lamar Jackson-  pick 32

Ryan Tannehill-  pick 8- bust in Miami- traded to TN

Deshaun Watson-  pick 12

Patrick Mahomes-  pick 10

 

First QBs Taken

2019- #1- Kyler Murray- Missed playoffs

2018- #1- Baker Mayfield- Missed Playoffs

2017- #2- Mitch Trubisky - Missed Playoffs

2016- #1- Jared Goff- Missed Playoffs

2015J-#1- Jameis Winston- Missed Playoffs

2014- #3- Blake Bortles- Backup

2013- #16- Ej Manuel- Out of league 

 

Notable Later Round QBs 

2016- #91- Jacoby Brissett

2014- #36- Derek Carr

2012- #88- Nick Foles

2011- #35- Andy Dalton

2011- #36- Colin Kaepernick 

 

Super Bowl Winning QBs

2019- Tom Brady (199)

2018- Nick Foles (88)

2017- Tom Brady (199)

2016- Peyton Manning (1)

2015- Tom Brady (199)

2014- Russell Wilson (75)

2013- Joe Flacco (18)

2012- Eli Manning (1)

2011- Aaron Rodgers (24)

2010- Drew Brees (32)

2009- Ben Roethlisberger (11)

[Thunderbolt]

No later than the early 2nd round providing J. Fromm is available.

[Gigc]

ASAP.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If we can get Herbert or Love I will be happy.

[John Hammonds]

Yup.  As CB said, you don't just draft a QB because you need a QB.  You gotta do your research, and pick the right guy.  And if the right guy doesn't present himself, then you don't pick one.

[MPStack]

Completely agree, because you can sign a better veteran FA. 
 

 

[MPStack]

I don’t think R. Tannehill was a bust. 
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

 

E.J. Manual was a bust! 

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

14 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Completely agree, because you can sign a better veteran FA. 
 

 

The only thing with that is history shows that doesn’t work really either.
 

In the past 10 years you have 3 FA Vet signings that panned out. 
 

Kurt Warner- Arizona- 2009

Drew Brees- New Orleans- 2010

Peyton Manning- Denver- 2016

 

Better to take your shot at draft.  

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

6 minutes ago, MPStack said:

I don’t think R. Tannehill was a bust. 
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

 

E.J. Manual was a bust! 

Bust might have been harsh but if he was great Miami wouldn’t have traded him to Tennessee. 

Miami got- 4th and 7th round picks 

Tennessee got- Ryan Tannehill, 6th round pick and Miami paid 5 million of his 7 million salary for 2019. 

 

Not exactly like they got a haul. They basically paid Tennessee to take him. 

 

[MPStack]

2 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

The only thing with that is history shows that doesn’t work really either.
 

In the past 10 years you have 3 FA Vet signings that panned out. 
 

Kurt Warner- Arizona- 2009

Drew Brees- New Orleans- 2010

Peyton Manning- Denver- 2016

 

Better to take your shot at draft.  

I appreciate you putting that together, but that’s a basic breakdown of the QB’s. It doesn’t breakdown anything in justifying where or where not to select a QB. 
 

Meaning for example, T. Brady was a 6th Rd pick, when the Patriots had a top QB in D. Bledsoe, so is this comparable to the situation the Colts are currently in with Brissett? Absolutely, not! 
 

Does drafting a QB in Rd 1 equate to SB titles? Absolutely, not! 
 

It just seems like you’re trying to argue not drafting a QB at 13 with the Colts. Fair enough!  Nothing personal, and I appreciate you putting that together.

 

However, I view the Colts QB situation as a “critical need” and hoping to get a R. Wilson in the 3rd or T. Brady in the 6th is far more risky than trying to draft an above average or potentially elite QB in round #1. 
JMO

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

1 minute ago, MPStack said:

I appreciate you putting that together, but that’s a basic breakdown of the QB’s. It doesn’t breakdown anything in justifying where or where not to select a QB. 
 

Meaning for example, T. Brady was a 6th Rd pick, when the Patriots had a top QB in D. Bledsoe, so is this comparable to the situation the Colts are currently in with Brissett? Absolutely, not! 
 

Does drafting a QB in Rd 1 equate to SB titles? Absolutely, not! 
 

It just seems like you’re trying to argue not drafting a QB at 13 with the Colts. Fair enough!  Nothing personal, and I appreciate you putting that together.

 

However, I view the Colts QB situation as a “critical need” and hoping to get a R. Wilson in the 3rd or T. Brady in the 6th is far more risky than trying to draft an above average or potentially elite QB in round #1. 
JMO

I appreciate that. I would

oike to clarify that I would never wait until the 6th. But I also feel that 13, with all the playmakers that could be available, could be reaching on someone like Love or Eason. 
 

Plus you labeling it critical need does seems to do exactly what Ballard doesn’t want to do, force the QB evaluation and make it feel like you have to take QB at 13. 
 

In the end if Ballard and the Colts take Jordan Love (I use him because I know you love him, lol), Jacob Eason, Justin Herbert,  Anthony Gordon, trade for Derek Carr or stick with JB I will be excited to see what happens next year.
 

It is actually a very exciting time to be a Colts fans. 

[MikeCurtis]

43 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

If we can get Herbert or Love I will be happy.

I just can’t see Herbert getting past LAC

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I appreciate that. I would

oike to clarify that I would never wait until the 6th. But I also feel that 13, with all the playmakers that could be available, could be reaching on someone like Love or Eason. 
 

Plus you labeling it critical need does seems to do exactly what Ballard doesn’t want to do, force the QB evaluation and make it feel like you have to take QB at 13. 
 

In the end if Ballard and the Colts take Jordan Love (I use him because I know you love him, lol), Jacob Eason, Justin Herbert,  Anthony Gordon, trade for Derek Carr or stick with JB I will be excited to see what happens next year.
 

It is actually a very exciting time to be a Colts fans. 

If we draft a QB at 13 Ballard is sold. If he doesn’t that means the guy is gone or he wasn’t sold on him. It is a critical need if the right guy is there.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

4 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

If we draft a QB at 13 Ballard is sold. If he doesn’t that means the guy is gone or he wasn’t sold on him. It is a critical need if the right guy is there.

I so agree with this. So much, lol. 
 

 Also, we might label it a critical need but does Ballard? Honest question. 

[MPStack]

9 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

But I also feel that 13, with all the playmakers that could be available, could be reaching on someone like Love or Eason. 

Right now it is to early in the process to determine if those QB’s are a reach at 13 or not.
It’s “Armchair GM” talk. Many would’ve said or did this time of year about D. Jones or J. Allen. And they were drafted extremely high.

9 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Plus you labeling it critical need does seems to do exactly what Ballard doesn’t want to do, force the QB evaluation and make it feel like you have to take QB at 13. 

He may not take a QB early or at all, if he doesn’t like any. However, he said, “the jury is still out” discussing the QB situation. That doesn’t mean he won’t sign a veteran. 

9 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

In the end if Ballard and the Colts take Jordan Love (I use him because I know you love him, lol), Jacob Eason, Justin Herbert,  Anthony Gordon, trade for Derek Carr or stick with JB I will be excited to see what happens next year.

I confess, I do like J. Love and think he’s a better prospect than J.Allen, who I also like. However, I’d rather him sit a full year. 

9 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

It is actually a very exciting time to be a Colts fans. 

Agreed! 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

11 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I so agree with this. So much, lol. 
 

 Also, we might label it a critical need but does Ballard? Honest question. 

If he doesn’t he should be fired.

[Matabix]

4th round or later this year if the can't miss QB doesn't fall to us. I wouldn't trade up in the 1st round for one. JB before his leg injury was good, not great. His accuracy, ball placement and strong arm showed before injury. My only knock on him was his ability to read a defense which makes him hold the ball longer. Which makes someone make a stupid post about line regression. JB needs 1 more year, unless our can't miss QB falls close to our pick. 

As of right now I'm only considering keeping Doyle, Hilton and Pascal as our pass catchers. Everyone else need to show there hands.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

8 minutes ago, Matabix said:

4th round or later this year if the can't miss QB doesn't fall to us. I wouldn't trade up in the 1st round for one. JB before his leg injury was good, not great. His accuracy, ball placement and strong arm showed before injury. My only knock on him was his ability to read a defense which makes him hold the ball longer. Which makes someone make a stupid post about line regression. JB needs 1 more year, unless our can't miss QB falls close to our pick. 

As of right now I'm only considering keeping Doyle, Hilton and Pascal as our pass catchers. Everyone else need to show there hands.

I agree with this but just curious,

 

Who is the can’t miss prospect?

 

Who would you take in the 4th round or later?

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Bust might have been harsh but if he was great Miami wouldn’t have traded him to Tennessee. 

Miami got- 4th and 7th round picks 

Tennessee got- Ryan Tannehill, 6th round pick and Miami paid 5 million of his 7 million salary for 2019. 

 

Not exactly like they got a haul. They basically paid Tennessee to take him. 

 

Did Miami trade Tannehill?    Or was he signed by Tennessee as a free agent?

 

Inquiring minds....

[jameszeigler834]

3 hours ago, Thunderbolt said:

No later than the early 2nd round providing J. Fromm is available.

I just dont get all the hype on this forum surrounding Fromm he is worst than Brissett.

[jameszeigler834]

47 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Did Miami trade Tannehill?    Or was he signed by Tennessee as a free agent?

 

Inquiring minds....

Titans gave up a 6th round pick for him also he wasn't a bust in Miami they had no team around him.

[Matabix]

7 hours ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

I agree with this but just curious,

 

Who is the can’t miss prospect?

 

Who would you take in the 4th round or later?

I have no idea, but from I saw besides 1 QB all others are suspect. Sounds like difference between a 2nd round QB and a 5th round QB is small. Some high on this Gordon guy and it seems like we can get him late. If JB doesn't work this year CB will have to go get a QB in next years draft. Trading up if that's what it takes.

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

5 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:

Titans gave up a 6th round pick for him also he wasn't a bust in Miami they had no team around him.

You make it sound like that was the trade. 
 

Miami got- 4th and 7th round picks from titans. 
 

Tennessee got- Ryan Tannehill, 6th round pick and Miami paid 5 million of his 7 million salary for 2019. 

 

7 seasons in Miami

1 playoff appearance

1 winning record

Overall record as starter 42-46

 

i don’t think when he was drafted in top 10 this is what they wanted 

 

 

[coltsfanej]

The when doesn't matter, it's the whom. 

[atapcl]

10 hours ago, MPStack said:

I appreciate you putting that together, but that’s a basic breakdown of the QB’s. It doesn’t breakdown anything in justifying where or where not to select a QB. 
 

Meaning for example, T. Brady was a 6th Rd pick, when the Patriots had a top QB in D. Bledsoe, so is this comparable to the situation the Colts are currently in with Brissett? Absolutely, not! 
 

Does drafting a QB in Rd 1 equate to SB titles? Absolutely, not! 
 

It just seems like you’re trying to argue not drafting a QB at 13 with the Colts. Fair enough!  Nothing personal, and I appreciate you putting that together.

 

However, I view the Colts QB situation as a “critical need” and hoping to get a R. Wilson in the 3rd or T. Brady in the 6th is far more risky than trying to draft an above average or potentially elite QB in round #1. 
JMO

Agree with this post.

[Archer]

I keep thinking that the guys available to us early aren’t particularly good values.  I like Love’s upside, but his chances of getting there anytime soon is way below average for a first or second rounder.  A lot of work to do with him.  Same for Eason.  I think CB is gonna assess it that way.  My sense of CB is that he’ll stick with Brissett, take a good look at Kelly, probably add a mid-round QB, and reassess next season...

[stitches]

You do NOT go cheap on QBs. You get the guy that you think has the best chance to be a franchise QB and you do it wherever your board dictates he should be taken. If you can get your QB1 with #13 you do NOT go "well... but what about my QB8 ... I might be able to get him in round 3 and I kind of like him for a 3d rounder". NO! You get your highest ranked QB wherever you need to take him. 

 

I personally don't like taking late round QBs as a good strategy for finding a franchise QB. I like it for finding cheap shots at a backup/relief/insurance QB once you already have your franchise QB. 

[Thunderbolt]

I say we draft a QB no later than the 2nd round, everyone seems to be lobbying for J. Love, but there are other QBs that merits attention and tryouts.  A lot of people that have posted to take Fromm, and I for one have shared those post b/c I've seen his highlights and the other QBs as well like Eason, Herbert for example.  I like the upside on Fromm with his accuracy and release, etc....So I hope Ballard sees all these posts and draft a capable QB the likes of Fromm .  I'm sure Ballard will do his due diligence and make that decisions for the sake of the Franchise.

[MPStack]

26 minutes ago, Archer said:

I keep thinking that the guys available to us early aren’t particularly good values.  I like Love’s upside, but his chances of getting there anytime soon is way below average for a first or second rounder.

 

Like I said earlier, that’s “Armchair GM speak” about who or who isn’t worthy of being an early selection. Way to early to determine that and history has shown the last couple drafts, specifically at the QB position that QBs go earlier than we think.

 

Quote

I think CB is gonna assess it that way.  My sense of CB is that he’ll stick with Brissett, take a good look at Kelly, probably add a mid-round QB, and reassess next season...

I’m curious how long everyone thinks a GM gets at the position, before things start getting questionable in regards to their employment.

 

Ballard’s done a lot of good stuff, but rolling with Brissett again, Kelly and a mid Round QB pick seems dangerous IMO. What if it’s the same results and the Colts miss the playoffs again. Ballard is now potentially going into year 5 with no answer at QB and in QB purgatory.  GM’s typically last about 4-5 years. I’m certain CB knows and thinks well outside the box, regarding his future. 
 

Anyways, I seriously doubt Ballard doesn’t address the QB position by either drafting a QB early, signing a good veteran or combination of both. 
 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

28 minutes ago, Archer said:

I keep thinking that the guys available to us early aren’t particularly good values.  I like Love’s upside, but his chances of getting there anytime soon is way below average for a first or second rounder.  A lot of work to do with him.  Same for Eason.  I think CB is gonna assess it that way.  My sense of CB is that he’ll stick with Brissett, take a good look at Kelly, probably add a mid-round QB, and reassess next season...

So was Mahomes  taken to high because he had to sit a year.

[Archer]

Just now, Chloe6124 said:

So was Mahomes  taken to high because he had to sit a year.

No.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

No.

Like someone posted above their draft profiles are very similar. Love is no more a project then Mahomes was.

[BProland85]

Tennessee has shown in the playoffs that you can win with a mediocre QB as long as you have the pieces around him. 

 

Colts are very close to having all those pieces as well. Just need to stay healthy, add a few better weapons, add an impact player at DT, and then find your guy who can compliment this offense the way it needs to be run. I would still argue we could improve upon Marlon Mack at RB as well. 

[Archer]

21 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Anyways, I seriously doubt Ballard doesn’t address the QB position by either drafting a QB early, signing a good veteran or combination of both. 

Yeah, I think there are just two separate opinions on Love and Eason at this draft.  I’d be all for drafting JB’s successor if the right guy was available to us.  I just don’t like them as a decent value at #34, much less #13.  I don’t see CB forcing things if the value’s not there.  And I don’t see a franchise coming to us in FA.  JB showed enough pre-injury that I’d rather give him another shot than bring in a washed up veteran like Rivers or Brady.  We forget that it’s hard to find a franchise QB if we don’t have one, and missing on a bold move can hamstring a team for three years or more.  A bold move might be what it takes, but I just don’t think Love or Eason are the guy...

[MPStack]

14 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Tennessee has shown in the playoffs that you can win with a mediocre QB as long as you have the pieces around him. 

Hardly mediocre once he took over in week seven. 
 

Yep, tracking his playoff numbers. 

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Hardly mediocre once he took over in week seven. 
 

Yep, tracking his playoff numbers. 

People haven't followed Tannehill this season but he had an exceptional season. PFF has him as the highest ranked QB this season. And all of his advanced metrics are great. He's been very very efficient this year. He feasts in that offense getting playaction setup from the threat of the Henry run. 

[MPStack]

Just now, stitches said:

People haven't followed Tannehill this season but he had an exceptional season. PFF has him as the highest ranked QB this season. And all of his advanced metrics are great. He's been very very efficient this year. He feasts in that offense getting playaction setup from the threat of the Henry run. 

I’m well aware, and the comments with some posters are easy at times, to determine who really reads up some or just post pure nonsense. I admit, I’m more of a stats guy, who likes to research players before I speak. 

[BProland85]

23 minutes ago, MPStack said:

Hardly mediocre once he took over in week seven. 
 

Yep, tracking his playoff numbers. 

I live in Nashville and have seen all their games. Dude isn't the next coming of one of the greats. He simply is in the perfect system for him. They don't ask much of him. He averages maybe 200 yards passing per game. 

[jvan1973]

1 hour ago, Thunderbolt said:

I say we draft a QB no later than the 2nd round, everyone seems to be lobbying for J. Love, but there are other QBs that merits attention and tryouts.  A lot of people that have posted to take Fromm, and I for one have shared those post b/c I've seen his highlights and the other QBs as well like Eason, Herbert for example.  I like the upside on Fromm with his accuracy and release, etc....So I hope Ballard sees all these posts and draft a capable QB the likes of Fromm .  I'm sure Ballard will do his due diligence and make that decisions for the sake of the Franchise.

I highly doubt Ballard is in here looking for draft advice 

[boo2202]

Are people really comparing Tannehill to Brissett. Tanehill was a known commodity, he’s had some good years in the league. He just had trouble staying healthy and was stuck with a terrible franchise. Either way colts have got to get better at QB position if we Want to contend for a Super Bowl. I’m not saying elite QB but someone that can push the ball down field and can throw to open receivers.