I don't think Love will last until 13

[twfish]

QB's dominate the draft every single year and I'm not sure why we think this year is going to be any different. Daniel Jones who IMHO is less of a prospect went 6 overall. A similar prospect in Josh Allen went 7 overall. He will likely do very well in his pro day and during the combine. He is the most talented QB in the draft, not to take away from the Burrow, Tua and Herbert but none of them match him Athletically IMHO. Worse yet there are plenty of teams out there this year needing a QB and plenty right ahead of us. Cincy, maybe Detroit, Miami, for now L.A, I wouldn't rule out Carolina, and possibly Oakland. Thats 6 Candidates before us looking at 4 prospects. I don't like those odds. I myself am just as guilty since during my mock i had us taking him in the 20's. Thankfully there are some decent options a Free Agents QBs this year and I am hoping L.A picks up Brady and then would be open to trading IF Love is our QB. I am going to start studying his tape a ton more but looking at stats if he would have been in the draft last year i think he's looked at to be the second QB taken in the draft. 

[BProland85]

I would be absolutely shocked if Love goes top 12. He is far too raw. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I am starting to see more and more publications putting him as the third best QB ahead of Herbert. He is starting to gain traction.

 

 

[Yoshinator]

13 minutes ago, twfish said:

QB's dominate the draft every single year and I'm not sure why we think this year is going to be any different. Daniel Jones who IMHO is less of a prospect went 6 overall. A similar prospect in Josh Allen went 7 overall. He will likely do very well in his pro day and during the combine. He is the most talented QB in the draft, not to take away from the Burrow, Tua and Herbert but none of them match him Athletically IMHO. Worse yet there are plenty of teams out there this year needing a QB and plenty right ahead of us. Cincy, maybe Detroit, Miami, for now L.A, I wouldn't rule out Carolina, and possibly Oakland. Thats 6 Candidates before us looking at 4 prospects. I don't like those odds. I myself am just as guilty since during my mock i had us taking him in the 20's. Thankfully there are some decent options a Free Agents QBs this year and I am hoping L.A picks up Brady and then would be open to trading IF Love is our QB. I am going to start studying his tape a ton more but looking at stats if he would have been in the draft last year i think he's looked at to be the second QB taken in the draft. 

If 4 QB's go before us, we adapt and adjust and take a positional prospect like Brown or Kinlaw. Ballard should sign a veteran in FA just in case this happens IMO.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I imagine with Love starting to gain some traction that is one reason Herbert has decided to go to the senior bowl. 

[stitches]

I agree. I personally have him as my QB2(since I have taken Tua out of my ranking because of his injury). 

 

QBs rule the world and always get overdrafted. Even if you don't think they are that level of prospects they usually go much higher than similarly talented players from other positions. Plus, this year there seem to be inordinate number of QB hungry teams. Even if there aren't 4 teams that are currently above us that will take QB, it's very likely that some team from below us will try to trade up and jump us knowing we are likely looking at the QBs in the draft and especially Love(if one is to believe the reports about Ballard liking him).

 

I kind of feel like Ballard will use one of the seconds in order to assure we get the QB we want. So... it's possible Love goes before 13... and still ends up with the Colts. 

[chad72]

I am sure there is a bunch of guys on here that will disagree with you but I would be totally fine with Love at No.13. Chiefs and Texans moving up for Mahomes and Watson plus the Ravens moving back into Round 1 for Lamar Jackson has definitely changed the landscape for drafting QBs, IMO. You are not hamstrung with huge rookie contracts anymore on top of that, and over drafting QBs does not hurt you cap wise like before. It does hurt you draft wise and can set your franchise back a few years if you miss terribly. 

 

The last time we picked at pre-teen or early teen levels outside the Andrew Luck pick, we got Dwight Freeney at No.11. One of Love or Herbert will be there at No.13, and if you like them both, that is only good for the Colts even if only 1 of them is there. If we improve our talent with another draft, we may not pick again in the teens or earlier, in all likelihood. So, if the difference maker at QB is not available, get the difference maker for the DL, IMO.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think that is right about the rookie contracts. It’s not as big of a deal cap wise if you miss on one in the first round. That’s why Miami can take TUA at five if they want. Plus they have two other 1st so they can afford to take a risk on him.

 

We might need to try and jump ahead of Oakland. Who knows if they will want to take a QB. Giants are a good trade partner also.

[DougDew]

I think this QB class is BETTER than the 2018 class that saw 3 QBs go top 3 and then Allen at 7 after a trade up.

 

In the poll thread, I said that 5 QBs will go before pick 13 and I'm sticking to it.

 

for now

 

[DougDew]

26 minutes ago, chad72 said:

I am sure there is a bunch of guys on here that will disagree with you but I would be totally fine with Love at No.13. Chiefs and Texans moving up for Mahomes and Watson plus the Ravens moving back into Round 1 for Lamar Jackson has definitely changed the landscape for drafting QBs, IMO. You are not hamstrung with huge rookie contracts anymore on top of that, and over drafting QBs does not hurt you cap wise like before. It does hurt you draft wise and can set your franchise back a few years if you miss terribly. 

 

The last time we picked at pre-teen or early teen levels outside the Andrew Luck pick, we got Dwight Freeney at No.11. One of Love or Herbert will be there at No.13, and if you like them both, that is only good for the Colts even if only 1 of them is there. If we improve our talent with another draft, we may not pick again in the teens or earlier, in all likelihood. So, if the difference maker at QB is not available, get the difference maker for the DL, IMO.

Yep.  And Mahomes/Allen have become the new rage, and there are at least 4 QBs with the athleticism to fit that profile.  Trade ups will happen this draft, IMO.

 

Maybe even 3-13 DET dumps their injured pocket passer for the modern QB of the future.

 

Only Fromm, maybe Eason, will be there at our pick 13. JMO.

[richard pallo]

Four QBs with 1st round grades listed among the top 17 overall prospects.  Considering all of the teams in need of a QB I find it hard to believe any of them will be there at 13.  There will be trades made by teams who will move up into the top 10.  I can see Gruden being enamored with Tua as long as he's projected to be healthy for the start of the season.  He would create a lot of excitement is Las Vegas.  But I think he would need to move up to get him.  That could open the door to trading for Carr.  If he stays with Carr then I can see Ballard moving into the top 10 to get Love or Herbert.  He's in a draft spot where he can easily do it and secure a top QB prospect.   I think this is the  year to make the move for a top QB prospect.   The future is too uncertain.  

[twfish]

9 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think this QB class is BETTER than the 2018 class that saw 3 QBs go top 3 and then Allen at 7 after a trade up.

 

In the poll thread, I said that 5 QBs will go before pick 13 and I'm sticking to it.

 

for now

 

Whos your 5th?

[twfish]

FWIW the giants 4th overall is worth 1800 and our 13th, 34 and 47th are worth 2140

[stitches]

10 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think this QB class is BETTER than the 2018 class that saw 3 QBs go top 3 and then Allen at 7 after a trade up.

 

In the poll thread, I said that 5 QBs will go before pick 13 and I'm sticking to it.

 

for now

I can absolutely see it... 

 

1. Bengals - Burrow 

3 or 5 Miami - Tua 

6. Chargers - Herbert

8. Colts(via Cardinals) - Love

12. Oakland - Eason ?

[Hoose]

Well, if Love is the Colts' guy and they want him badly enough, they have the ammo to move up. I doubt Love goes ahead of Herbert though. And Tua will go before both of them. Lots will happen between now and draft day though... veteran QBs moving to new teams; early trades like the one between the Colts and Jets a couple of years ago. So its way too early to know which teams will be competing with the Colts for a QB in the draft. 

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, twfish said:

Whos your 5th?

Burrow, Herbert, Tua, Love, Eason all have enough athleticism to be thought of as a modern NFL QB. 

 

Fromm's old school pocket style hurts him, but he may end up being better than Eason.

 

What chad72 said about contracts makes taking a QB early less risky.

[WarGhost21]

There certainly is a decent chance that he goes before our 1st pick. However, based on a talent perspective and how raw he is, he's a 3rd round caliber player at best. There is a reason why I don't want a QB round 1, and it is because this class isn't that good at the position. 

 

I have Burrow and Herbert graded as mid-late firsts, Tua would be there too if not for injury, and every other QB has a 3rd round grade or lower. After those top 3, I rank them as such:

 

Jacob Eason (3)

Jake Fromm (3)

Jordan Love (3-4)

Anthony Gordon (3-4)

Jalen Hurts (3-5)

Kellen Mond (4-5)

 

And then the rest after that can be mixed around however you please. It's a poor talent class at the position, either pick one Round 2 or don't pick one at all.

[BProland85]

7 minutes ago, stitches said:

I can absolutely see it... 

 

1. Bengals - Burrow 

3 or 5 Miami - Tua 

6. Chargers - Herbert

8. Colts(via Cardinals) - Love

12. Oakland - Eason ?

 

Oh Lord please no. I would MUCH rather draft best player available at 13 like a Derrick Brown or CeeDee Lamb. 

 

Ballard has said he won't reach for a QB simply to have one. He knows he has a big need at DT and WR. 

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

I can absolutely see it... 

 

1. Bengals - Burrow 

3 or 5 Miami - Tua 

6. Chargers - Herbert

8. Colts(via Cardinals) - Love

12. Oakland - Eason ?

 

The Chargers can dictate what the Colts do, w.r.t the QB position. If Brady goes to the Chargers, will things change? Not sure. Rivers and Brady in free agency might affect the Chargers more than any other team, IMO.

 

From my perspective, either Jordan Love or Herbert will be available at No.13, and I am sticking to it.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, BProland85 said:

 

Oh Lord please no. I would MUCH rather draft best player available at 13 like a Derrick Brown or CeeDee Lamb. 

 

Ballard has said he won't reach for a QB simply to have one. He knows he has a big need at DT and WR. 

He has bigger need at QB. Not that he will draft for need... I don't know why you dislike Love so much. He's a high level prospect. 

[BProland85]

Just now, stitches said:

He has bigger need at QB. Not that he will draft for need... I don't know why you dislike Love so much. He's a high level prospect. 

I do like Love, just would hate reaching for him early round 1, since I believe there are much better options available who are more likely to succeed in the league. To me Derrick Brown and CeeDee Lamb are sure things to be stars in this league, whereas I can't say that about Love just yet. 

[PeterBowman]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

He has bigger need at QB. Not that he will draft for need... I don't know why you dislike Love so much. He's a high level prospect. 

this could be true...just depends on if Ballard views a player like Brown/Kinlaw/Lamb etc to be better at their respective positions than they view the available qb's at theirs at this spot in the draft. 

[stitches]

20 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

this could be true...just depends on if Ballard views a player like Brown/Kinlaw/Lamb etc to be better at their respective positions than they view the available qb's at theirs at this spot in the draft. 

He doesn't need to see Love as better player than Brown/Kinlaw/Lamb at their position to draft him. He just needs to think his expected value is higher when drafting the QB. There are different rules for QBs simply because they are MUCH MORE valuable than any other position by a wide margin. Just an example - by PFFs WAR metric the best defensive player in the league in the last few years is Aaron Donald and he returns about 1.8 WAR to his team(I don't have the exact numbers right now, but I think this was the number approximately that I saw) and even average starting QBs return about that value and the great ones return around 3-6 WAR. This is a huge difference in expected value and I took the absolute best defensive player out there, most of the rest great linemen return in the low 1's. 

 

20 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

I do like Love, just would hate reaching for him early round 1, since I believe there are much better options available who are more likely to succeed in the league. To me Derrick Brown and CeeDee Lamb are sure things to be stars in this league, whereas I can't say that about Love just yet. 

It's not as simple when the QB question is involved. As I said above - the expected value the QB position returns is MUCH HIGHER than any other position so teams feel justified in 'reaching' for QBs. I agree a player like Lamb or Brown have higher chance to not bust in the league, but the risk of taking a QB makes sense when you realize just how much more valuable it is to hit on a QB than on any other position. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

40 minutes ago, stitches said:

I can absolutely see it... 

 

1. Bengals - Burrow 

3 or 5 Miami - Tua 

6. Chargers - Herbert

8. Colts(via Cardinals) - Love

12. Oakland - Eason ?

That would be a good trade. Just switch 1st. Then maybe a thitd. 

[MPStack]

1 hour ago, BProland85 said:

I would be absolutely shocked if Love goes top 12. He is far too raw. 

I wouldn’t, just look at Josh Allen’s  (7th overall) stats. Not overly impressive in college to me. 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

 

He actually regressed from sophomore to junior year, like you guessed it, J. Love.

 

And I bet the Bills are still happy with J. Allen.

 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, MPStack said:

I wouldn’t, just look at Josh Allen’s  (7th overall) stats. Not overly impressive in college to me. 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html

 

He actually regressed from sophomore to junior year, like you guessed it, J. Love.

 

And I bet the Bills are still happy with J. Allen.

 

I think Love is a much better prospect than Josh Allen. 

[MPStack]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

I think Love is a much better prospect than Josh Allen. 

I agree, and I like J. Allen a lot. 

 

 I’m on the draft J. Love bandwagon. 

[DougDew]

Subject to change, but as of 1/8/2020 at 11:30am:

 

1. CIN, Burrow:  Its just a matter of when they do the deal and when they release Dalton.

2. WSH, Chase Young

3. DET, Derrick Brown.

4.MIA, trades with NYG to take TUA. He can sit for half a season behind Fitz

5. LAC, trades with NYG to take Herbert

 

Love and Eason go to OAK and CAR before the Colts get their chance.

 

Any position player rookie will not help those teams more than a new QB, at least in the eyes of their front office.

 

Colts choose between taking  Fromm, signing Dalton, or part of a draft day three way with Gruden (yuck) to get Carr.

 

Brady stays at NE.  Rivers goes to the Bears, Steelers, or retires.  No idea where Cam goes.

 

[stitches]

1 minute ago, MPStack said:

I agree, and I like J. Allen a lot. 

 

 I’m on the draft J. Love bandwagon. 

I actually didn't love Josh Allen. So my statement above doesn't say much... but I truly think Love is a high level QB prospect. He has his own risks but I can actually see the path to him leading an extremely potent offense. 

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Subject to change, but as of 1/8/2020 at 11:30am:

 

1. CIN, Burrow:  Its just a matter of when they do the deal and when they release Dalton.

2. WSH, Chase Young

3. DET, Derrick Brown.

4.MIA, trades with NYG to take TUA. He can sit for half a season behind Fitz

5. LAC, trades with NYG to take Herbert

 

Love and Eason go to OAK and CAR before the Colts get their chance.

 

Any position player rookie will not help those teams more than a new QB, at least in the eyes of their front office.

 

Colts choose between at Fromm, Carr or Dalton.

 

Brady stays at NE.  Rivers goes to the Bears or Steelers.

 

[chad72]

1 minute ago, DougDew said:

Subject to change, but as of 1/8/2020 at 11:30am:

 

1. CIN, Burrow:  Its just a matter of when they do the deal and when they release Dalton.

2. WSH, Chase Young

3. DET, Derrick Brown.

4.MIA, trades with NYG to take TUA. He can sit for half a season behind Fitz

5. LAC, trades with NYG to take Herbert

 

Love and Eason go to OAK and CAR before the Colts get their chance.

 

Any position player rookie will not help those teams more than a new QB, at least in the eyes of their front office.

 

Colts choose between at Fromm, Carr or Dalton.

 

Brady stays at NE.  Rivers goes to the Bears or Steelers.

 

 

Big Ben, from what I know, will be back for next year. Mitch Trubisky will be franchised or extended, Nagy loves him.

 

Brady to NE is more certain than Rivers to "somewhere". 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Why would the chargers let rivers go and get a even older QB.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

I think this QB class is BETTER than the 2018 class that saw 3 QBs go top 3 and then Allen at 7 after a trade up.

 

In the poll thread, I said that 5 QBs will go before pick 13 and I'm sticking to it.

 

for now

 

Sorry....   but  three QBs did not go top-3.     Two did.    Mayfield one and Darnold three.    Barkley, the RB went two.

 

Allen went about between 7-10 and Rosen went 10-12.    That’s off memory.

 

The 2020 class of QBs is not as highly regarded.   

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think there will be teams that we think will take a QB and they won’t. Chargers and panthers are not a guarantee. Every GM rates QB different. One that Ballard rates high another team might not.

 

From what I have read Love runs a RPO offense and would fit the colts perfect. Ballard might not even think Herbert fits this offense.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Well this is a interesting quote from the new Panthers coach. It’s from August.  Maybe he feels they already have their guy. I don’t think it was fair to judge him when the team had already given up.

 

 

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

I can absolutely see it... 

 

1. Bengals - Burrow 

3 or 5 Miami - Tua 

6. Chargers - Herbert

8. Colts(via Cardinals) - Love

12. Oakland - Eason ?

I really don't see the Colts moving up.  This team has to many holes, so they cannot afford to give up picks. They need 2 starting DT's, possible LT, and some help at receiver.  May also need another corner. Ride with Brissett. Draft a TE and pick up WR in free agency vice versa.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

12 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I really don't see the Colts moving up.  This team has to many holes, so they cannot afford to give up picks. They need 2 starting DT's, possible LT, and some help at receiver.  May also need another corner. Ride with Brissett. Draft a TE and pick up WR in free agency vice versa.

QB is the one position it’s ok to move up no matter the other needs.

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I really don't see the Colts moving up.  This team has to many holes, so they cannot afford to give up picks. They need 2 starting DT's, possible LT, and some help at receiver.  May also need another corner. Ride with Brissett. Draft a TE and pick up WR in free agency vice versa.

This team actually has pretty good roster. We have some holes but the roster is much better than most people are giving it credit. I also for the life of me cannot figure out how people think any position is in any more of a need of an upgrade than QB right now. Jacoby is worse at his job than every single other starting position on this team(unless AC retires). Grover is better DT than Jacoby is a QB. Pascal is better WR than Jacoby is a QB. Kenny, Rock and Desir are all better corners than Jacoby is a QB. 

 

IF we are talking about NEEDS(and I'm not a fan of drafting for need), the Colts NEED a better QB/future QB more than anything else. 

[Moosejawcolt]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

QB is the one position it’s ok to move up no matter the other needs.

I agree.  U move up if u think that is the missing piece or if u r almost there.  I think we r an average team right now and e need to build some more. I am not making excuses for Brissett,  but I wouldn't mind seeing him one more year with healthy receivers and tight ends.  I am not sure if it is worth moving up for a qb this year.  I am not really enamoured with anyone

[Moosejawcolt]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

This team actually has pretty good roster. We have some holes but the roster is much better than most people are giving it credit. I also for the life of me cannot figure out how people think any position is in any more of a need of an upgrade than QB right now. Jacoby is worse at his job than every single other starting position on this team(unless AC retires). Grover is better DT than Jacoby is a QB. Pascal is better WR than Jacoby is a QB. Kenny, Rock and Desir are all better corners than Jacoby is a QB. 

 

IF we are talking about NEEDS(and I'm not a fan of drafting for need), the Colts NEED a better QB/future QB more than anything else. 

The D is horrendous.  We need 2 starting DT's.  Is the secondary going to improve or so we need to draft a corner? Are we going to need a new LT? We could also use a DE.  This D was bad the last half of the season.  I thought if anything the D would get better as the year progressed as they were young.   They didn't. It was almost epic bad they were.

[Moosejawcolt]

10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

QB is the one position it’s ok to move up no matter the other needs.

Young qbs fail if u don't build around them.  Dungy said years ago that exact thing.  U need the pieces so it doesn't put to much pressure on them.  Continue to build the D.  Add some play makers. Now give Brissett another year and let's see  these guys develop.  If Brissett sucks, then draft a guy in 2021 as he is coming to a talented team. Just my thought.