Pat Mcafee on Brissett

[Goatface Killah]

2 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Peyton, Andrew, Jacoby.... its natural for us to compare them.

Really not fair though, all their styles, attributes, weaknesses, etc are so different.  Not to mention coaches, teams, etc.

 Andrew was a wonderful  talent.  But i always thought he lacked that next level foot on the neck attitude.

  By no means did i think we would see QB play anywhere near Luck's from JB.  However, JB has REALLY impressed me.  I think Reich is a big part of this.  I'm not sold yet JB is the long-term "franchise" guy, but he is making me more of a believer every week.  I'm excited for the team's future.  I think the KC game will tell us alot about our present.

Absolutely. The only thing I didnt like about Luck was the fact he wasnt demanding enough of his team mates. I feel like as a premier QB, the guys on your team need to not only respect you but they need to fear you a little bit. They need to know that if you become displeased with them at any point, one trip to the GMs office and your on the next plane out of town. It galvanizes the team in a way, by keeping them all focused on the goal. The QB should be the driving force. Luck seemed too nice at times. He never complained. He should've complained more early in his career, because he had every reason to.

 

I hope JB, if he does establish himself as our new QB over the next 13+ games, is slightly and I mean slightly, more assertive in his quest to win. I hope that between his time with Brady and Luck, that is one of the things he learned from the former. 

 

So far, hes been fantastic. He has everything he needs to succeed here including a good group of young players that give him plenty of support. And he has hit the ground running. Hes been very impressive, no doubt about it. And hes starting to gain some respect around the league. Jon Gruden spoke of him very highly at his presser yesterday. He has to be feeling himself a little bit at this point. Hopefully he starts believing it, if he doesnt already. Because sometimes, I think that's the only difference between the greats and just the good players. It's just that belief that, "Yeah, I'm the best, and this team cant stop me".

[throwing BBZ]

  I agree Brissett is playing much better than most thought he would.
  So that would be underrated. And i Love his potential to play very high quality football.

  And i already see traits that put him in good stead compared to our last QB.
  Our last QB was not many games above .500 outside of the AFC South.
    And his accuracy and decision making was too often a head scratcher.
 

[Devildog]

10 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

I honestly rememeber a lot of inconsistent play from Andrew Luck. He would be garbage one half and then light it up. And can't help but remember how he played against the Pats and the last game against KC. 

 

I'm just a casual fan, but never saw Luck as an elite athlete. He seemed to read defenses well, but that can not be learned? 

 

You seem to forget that Andrew played with a different coach, different lines, and yes, the team was different way before Jacoby came in and yet Luck managed to bring the team to the playoffs.  The first year and only year Luck played under Reich, and after coming back from being hurt, he put up the best stats in his career.  I'm not knocking on JB because I believe he has the talent and can become one of the best but he's coming in when everything is pretty much in place. 

[shasta519]

22 minutes ago, LuckyHorseShoe§ said:

In regards to Mahomes, can we take a step back? Everyone in this league treats him as if he's already better than Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or Joe Montana, yet the kid hasn't even played two full seasons. Cam Newton looked unstoppable in 2015, but look at him now. We have no idea how good or bad Mahomes may be in the future, so don't treat him as a top 5 all-time QB.

To further prove my point, do you remember Peyton Hillis? Probably not. Look him up.

 

Peyton Hillis was a RB...anybody who plays FF knows there is a laundry list of one-hit wonders at RB.

 

QB is much different. And the thing about Mahomes...is that there really isn't a reason to take a step back. He doesn't have any type of sample size to suggest he isn't great. It's almost as if he has to prove he isn't great at this point...because what he is doing is essentially unprecedented. 

[Fisticuffs111]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

He wasn’t talking talent. He was talking about longevity. He thinks Mahomes plays kind of wild and is going to hurt himself one day.

Still disagree with McAfee. At the very least, I don't think Mahomes is super at risk of getting hurt.

People have kinda blown up the whole "longevity" argument since Luck retired. Sure, QBs like Watson and Jackson, who have gotten pounded so far or like to run a lot, those guys are at risk. Also, Mahomes is nearly 3 years younger than Brissett.

[Goatface Killah]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

I agree.   Brissetts ceiling isn't even close to MaHomes.   

 

I dont know about that. I mean, yeah, from a pure statistical standpoint, I dont expect Brissett to be a 5,000 yard passer or rack up 50 TDs, BUT.......nobody expected Tom Brady to do those things either in his 4th year, and from a pure talent standpoint, I think JB is actually tougher in the pocket, more mobile and has a better arm. Than Brady, not Mahommes. For me it's similar to the Manning Brady arguments from about 10-15 years ago. Manning was the talent, Brady was the winner. Jacoby can be the winner.

 

Sometimes we look at these guys and put limitations on them based off their perceived skill level. But man, football is a different kind of game. It's so mental, I would put it at 75% cerebral. If he can develop that moxy that Brady has, and he can dedicate himself to his craft the way Manning did, I wouldn't put a limitation on what he can accomplish as our QB. Hes got a great, great group around him. All he has to do is steer the ship and lead the charge, and hopefully our defense can take that next step over the next 13 games and catch up with our offense.

[TrueBlue12]

From what the coaches say about him, he is dedicated to his craft. Brady, Manning and Luck all fit in that mold. I think he has all the physical tools of Brady or Manning.

[stitches]

6 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Fun fact... for QBs who have started at least 16 games in the league since 2000, can you guess who has the lowest INT%?

 

5 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Good guess, #2 on the list. Didn't really mean for it to be an actual quiz! 

 

Go here for the list:

http://pfref.com/tiny/AyfUO

 

Shows it's not exactly a be all end all metric, but it does show QBs who don't give it up, and I think that's pretty key. Don't beat yourself, make them beat you. 

Low INT% doesn't necessarily mean much. It could mean both that the QB is really good or that he doesn't take enough chances. 

 

What worries me with Brissett and what has been consistently bad indicator for him is the big time throws % and his TD%.... TD% is a MUCH better indicator for how good the QB is than INT%... Just do the same sort you do for INT% on the link you shared for TD%. Now look at the best QBs and the worst QBs by TD%. There is practically no high end QB in the area Jacoby is scoring so far and there is practically no bad QB at the top of the charts. The best of the best are in the top 10-15... The best QBs out of the 50 or so in the Jacoby's range is who? Joe Flacco maybe? Teddy Bridgewater? 

 

THIS is what should worry us and the low INT% combined with the low TD% and low % of big time throws is an indicator for exactly what I've mentioned several times in other threads - Jacoby is too conservative and either doesn't see a lot of the big throw opportunities or is way too careful to pull the trigger. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

John Gruden said this about JB before the draft in 2016.

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Low INT% doesn't necessarily mean much. It could mean both that the QB is really good or that he doesn't take enough chances. 

 

What worries me with Brissett and what has been consistently bad indicator for him is the big time throws % and his TD%.... TD% is a MUCH better indicator for how good the QB is than INT%... Just do the same sort you do for INT% on the link you shared for TD%. Now look at the best QBs and the worst QBs by TD%. There is practically no high end QB in the area Jacoby is scoring so far and there is practically no bad QB at the top of the charts. The best of the best are in the top 10-15... The best QBs out of the 50 or so in the Jacoby's range is who? Joe Flacco maybe? Teddy Bridgewater? 

 

THIS is what should worry us and the low INT% combined with the low TD% and low % of big time throws is an indicator for exactly what I've mentioned several times in other threads - Jacoby is too conservative and either doesn't see a lot of the big throw opportunities or is way too careful to pull the trigger. 

He led the nfl in 2017 in deep ball accuracy. We are doing exactly what NE has done to win all their rings. You take whatever the defense gives you. Get in third and short situations and run the ball.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

He led the nfl in 2017 in deep ball accuracy. We are doing exactly what NE has done to win all their rings. You take whatever the defense gives you. Get in third and short situations and run the ball.

We are NOT doing what NE has done to win all the rings. Brady at 42 is currently leading the league in big time throws. Jacoby is 29th out of 34 QBs. If you open that link that @SteelCityColt shared, Brady is ranked in the top 10 in TD% almost doubling Jacoby's. 

 

Deep ball accuracy is good... but again we don't know exactly what it means without context. For example - if it turns out that Jacoby is not throwing many deep balls and is being very accurate on deep balls it might mean he only throws deep when the throw is a no brainer, receiver in big open space... i.e. again not taking enough shots and not making big time throws consistently enough. 

[Steamboat_Shaun]

14 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Low INT% doesn't necessarily mean much. It could mean both that the QB is really good or that he doesn't take enough chances. 

 

What worries me with Brissett and what has been consistently bad indicator for him is the big time throws % and his TD%.... TD% is a MUCH better indicator for how good the QB is than INT%... Just do the same sort you do for INT% on the link you shared for TD%. Now look at the best QBs and the worst QBs by TD%. There is practically no high end QB in the area Jacoby is scoring so far and there is practically no bad QB at the top of the charts. The best of the best are in the top 10-15... The best QBs out of the 50 or so in the Jacoby's range is who? Joe Flacco maybe? Teddy Bridgewater? 

 

THIS is what should worry us and the low INT% combined with the low TD% and low % of big time throws is an indicator for exactly what I've mentioned several times in other threads - Jacoby is too conservative and either doesn't see a lot of the big throw opportunities or is way too careful to pull the trigger. 

 

He's a 2nd year starter under his 3rd head coach/OC tandem. I'm not concerned 1 bit, actually quite the opposite, I'm encouraged by his play thus far. You can dig into those numbers for analysis, but is the sample size really large enough to actually determine anything?

[Valpo2004]

I wouldn't compare him to Mahomes at all.  Not even in career length.  

 

Baker and Lamar are in danger of short careers because of how they are used.

 

Baker is overrated.  Doesn't mean he isn't any good.  But he was hyped a lot. 

[stitches]

12 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

He's a 2nd year starter under his 3rd head coach/OC tandem. I'm not concerned 1 bit, actually quite the opposite, I'm encouraged by his play thus far. You can dig into those numbers for analysis, but is the sample size really large enough to actually determine anything?

I agree that he's been improving and IMO there are real visible things that Jacoby has become better at since he last started in 2017(pocket movement, accuracy) but the sample is 20 games or so... He's not an inexperienced rookie anymore. He just got a good extension. There are multiple QBs with similar level of experience that have much higher TD% and big time throw%. 

 

Now those stats are not the be all of QB stats and performance, but IMO they do point to a real issue that Brissett has with his game even with the improvements he's shown so far. 

[SteelCityColt]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Low INT% doesn't necessarily mean much. It could mean both that the QB is really good or that he doesn't take enough chances. 

 

What worries me with Brissett and what has been consistently bad indicator for him is the big time throws % and his TD%.... TD% is a MUCH better indicator for how good the QB is than INT%... Just do the same sort you do for INT% on the link you shared for TD%. Now look at the best QBs and the worst QBs by TD%. There is practically no high end QB in the area Jacoby is scoring so far and there is practically no bad QB at the top of the charts. The best of the best are in the top 10-15... The best QBs out of the 50 or so in the Jacoby's range is who? Joe Flacco maybe? Teddy Bridgewater? 

 

THIS is what should worry us and the low INT% combined with the low TD% and low % of big time throws is an indicator for exactly what I've mentioned several times in other threads - Jacoby is too conservative and either doesn't see a lot of the big throw opportunities or is way too careful to pull the trigger. 

 

Absolutely agree with a lot of this here. Int % is quite a specific metric and without the wider context it pretty meaningless. I'm hoping that we will continue to see week to week improvements as confidence grows. Be fair to Brissett, like everyone else, I think Luck retiring caught him by surprise. Even with that said he's currently in the top 10 QBs this season (I know it's a small sample) for:

 

TD%

INT % (Massively tied)

CMP% 

Passer Rating

 

We can see he's efficient, but where I'd like to see improvement is in Y/A, AY/A and ANY/A to show us he's also a playmaker when needed. 

 

For all the people howling about PFF.. a stat like passer rating is, well, a stat. It doesn't take into context things like game situation, difficulty of throw, if the throw was made while the o-line were taking a nap etc etc. Now, I may have this wrong, but I do believe that PFF factors in some of these things. If they see a QB who is having a good day statistically (per passer rating) but is mostly hitting guys schemed open on short to medium throws, they're not going to grade him as highly as say a gun slinging playmaker who has put a team on his back. Whether that is right or wrong is certainly a conversation. 

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Absolutely agree with a lot of this here. Int % is quite a specific metric and without the wider context it pretty meaningless. I'm hoping that we will continue to see week to week improvements as confidence grows. Be fair to Brissett, like everyone else, I think Luck retiring caught him by surprise. Even with that said he's currently in the top 10 QBs this season (I know it's a small sample) for:

 

TD%

INT % (Massively tied)

CMP% 

Passer Rating

 

We can see he's efficient, but where I'd like to see improvement is in Y/A, AY/A and ANY/A to show us he's also a playmaker when needed. 

 

For all the people howling about PFF.. a stat like passer rating is, well, a stat. It doesn't take into context things like game situation, difficulty of throw, if the throw was made while the o-line were taking a nap etc etc. Now, I may have this wrong, but I do believe that PFF factors in some of these things. If they see a QB who is having a good day statistically (per passer rating) but is mostly hitting guys schemed open on short to medium throws, they're not going to grade him as highly as say a gun slinging playmaker who has put a team on his back. Whether that is right or wrong is certainly a conversation. 

 

Yeah, PFF thinks that the small sample of those stats is not sustainable if he continues to play like he's been playing(at least for some of them). And they don't think they are representative of the quality of his game so far. For example, he has high TD% but very low big-time-throws%. With bigger samples those are expected to somewhat converge... so he will either start throwing more big-time throws or his TD% will drop or both... (or Reich has built an offense that will run from 20-to-20 but then let Jacoby throw in the red zone where you can expect more TDs and increased TD%). 

 

One thing that's been consistent since the very start with Brissett is the low INT% and the low % of turnover worthy plays. He's just really safe with the ball and doesn't turn it over. 

[chad72]

12 minutes ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

Absolutely agree with a lot of this here. Int % is quite a specific metric and without the wider context it pretty meaningless. I'm hoping that we will continue to see week to week improvements as confidence grows. Be fair to Brissett, like everyone else, I think Luck retiring caught him by surprise. Even with that said he's currently in the top 10 QBs this season (I know it's a small sample) for:

 

TD%

INT % (Massively tied)

CMP% 

Passer Rating

 

We can see he's efficient, but where I'd like to see improvement is in Y/A, AY/A and ANY/A to show us he's also a playmaker when needed. 

 

For all the people howling about PFF.. a stat like passer rating is, well, a stat. It doesn't take into context things like game situation, difficulty of throw, if the throw was made while the o-line were taking a nap etc etc. Now, I may have this wrong, but I do believe that PFF factors in some of these things. If they see a QB who is having a good day statistically (per passer rating) but is mostly hitting guys schemed open on short to medium throws, they're not going to grade him as highly as say a gun slinging playmaker who has put a team on his back. Whether that is right or wrong is certainly a conversation. 

 

True. Once his comfort level goes up, if his TD% goes up to the high 4.5+ range while maintaining the INT% under 1.5%, that would take this offense to the next level, IMO. 

 

Andrew Luck has almost twice the INT% of Brissett but his TD% is in the low 5.2% level. Like Arians said "no risk it, no biscuit".   There is always some level of risk involved with a deeper throw but if you are good at reading coverages, which we feel Brissett is, the chunk yardages will come eventually. But then, if we build a team for running the football more, there is a good chance that the play action gets more and more potent leading to more passing TDs as well around the red zone. So we just have to monitor the progress as it happens.

 

Mahomes is on another planet, with those kinds of numbers, right now. Pure QB sense, Aaron Rodgers, for as long as he has played, having such kinds of numbers is amazing too.

[aaron11]

22 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

The volume of passes shouldn't make a difference as we're talking a %, all it will do is give you a bigger sample. That's why it was a fallacy when people held Luck up as turnover machine based on the volume of interceptions, when his actual rate wasn't that bad.

volume is important, its harder to keep an elite average when you have a lot of attempts vs only a few.  wilkins the RB is another example, i dont think may people would say hes one of the best running backs to ever play, but his ypc is up there 

[SteelCityColt]

23 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

volume is important, its harder to keep an elite average when you have a lot of attempts vs only a few.  wilkins the RB is another example, i dont think may people would say hes one of the best running backs to ever play, but his ypc is up there 

 

You're misunderstanding my point. You should always ignore small samples (e.g. guys with few snaps) as yes they will  have skewed rates. But for guys getting decent amount of snaps, if you had to look a metric in a vacuum I'd pick the rate any day of the week. Ask yourself this.. which QB would you rather have....

 

One who threw for 3,992 yards (32 TDs, 5 Ints) over a season taking 392 attempts to do so, or one who threw for 5,129 yards taking 452 attempts (34 TDs, 16 Ints). Both are considered "Elite" QBs. 

 

[LuckyHorseShoe§]

On 9/26/2019 at 10:57 AM, shastamasta said:

 

Peyton Hillis was a RB...anybody who plays FF knows there is a laundry list of one-hit wonders at RB.

 

QB is much different. And the thing about Mahomes...is that there really isn't a reason to take a step back. He doesn't have any type of sample size to suggest he isn't great. It's almost as if he has to prove he isn't great at this point...because what he is doing is essentially unprecedented. 

There is also a laundry list of one-hit or two-hit or three-hit wonders at QB.

Also, I’m not saying Mahomes is bad. He’s one of the best in the league at the moment. I’m simply wondering why a good amount of people are saying he’s the next top whatever greatest QB ever after one MVP season. Again, look at Cam Newton in 2015. Monster year, won MVP, now potentially the Panthers backup. Mahomes may very well be the next great QB, but some people are already chiseling his bust for the Hall.

And yes I know Peyton Hillis was an RB, but the same thing happened with him, people were already proclaiming him the next Barry Sanders after one great year.

If you still want a good QB comparison, look at Michael Vick.

Or better yet, look at Andrew Luck.

 

[Imgrandojji]

23 hours ago, TrueBlue12 said:

From what the coaches say about him, he is dedicated to his craft. Brady, Manning and Luck all fit in that mold. I think he has all the physical tools of Brady or Manning.

That's great because the mental tools Brissett has are nothing short of outstanding.

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, LuckyHorseShoe§ said:

There is also a laundry list of one-hit or two-hit or three-hit wonders at QB.

Also, I’m not saying Mahomes is bad. He’s one of the best in the league at the moment. I’m simply wondering why a good amount of people are saying he’s the next top whatever greatest QB ever after one MVP season. Again, look at Cam Newton in 2015. Monster year, won MVP, now potentially the Panthers backup. Mahomes may very well be the next great QB, but some people are already chiseling his bust for the Hall.

And yes I know Peyton Hillis was an RB, but the same thing happened with him, people were already proclaiming him the next Barry Sanders after one great year.

If you still want a good QB comparison, look at Michael Vick.

Or better yet, look at Andrew Luck.

 

 

I wouldn't say there is a laundry list of QBs who were legitimately great for a couple of seasons...and then never heard of from again. But regardless, there is no one on that list like Mahomes. What he is doing is unprecedented. Nobody has been this good this early in their careers...not even Rodgers. He's playing at peak Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers level heading into his 2nd season as a starter...at age 24.

 

Even Cam's MVP season was his 5th year at age 26...and it doesn't hold a candle to Mahomes (from a passing standpoint). Also, both Cam and Vick are/were mobile QBs...and derived much of their value from that...which makes it a bad comparison...because Mahomes does it passing.

 

The reason people are saying he is already great because what else can they say? Last season, many people saying "let's see more before we can say he's great"...and then he comes out this season and takes it a whole new level that no QB has played at. 

 

I hate that he's a Chief...but I love watching Mahomes play. I think people don't really appreciate what he is doing from a historical standpoint...even in the new pass-happy NFL.

 

 

 

[shasta519]

7 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

You're misunderstanding my point. You should always ignore small samples (e.g. guys with few snaps) as yes they will  have skewed rates. But for guys getting decent amount of snaps, if you had to look a metric in a vacuum I'd pick the rate any day of the week. Ask yourself this.. which QB would you rather have....

 

One who threw for 3,992 yards (32 TDs, 5 Ints) over a season taking 392 attempts to do so, or one who threw for 5,129 yards taking 452 attempts (34 TDs, 16 Ints). Both are considered "Elite" QBs. 

 

 

I mean the first guy...he had a 115 passer rating...and his name is Drew Brees. If JB puts up that season...I will chip in on a contract extension.

 

[SteelCityColt]

1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

 

I mean the first guy...he had a 115 passer rating...and his name is Drew Brees. If JB puts up that season...I will chip in on a contract extension.

 

 

I find Brees last year interesting, his arm certainly fell off as the season progressed, but still managed to run an efficient and effective O.